Exchange Rate Wars

[rewket]

hey quite whining.

I have to change my money from us to canadian, back to us then back to thailand baht.

When you have to lose so much in fee's and exchange rates.. then you can whine.

OR you could also get a teaching job 6-8hours a week for 40 000baht a month, if you did not work enough during your life, you still have time to make some ok money

[Dakhar]

hey quite whining.

I have to change my money from us to canadian, back to us then back to thailand baht.

When you have to lose so much in fee's and exchange rates.. then you can whine.

OR you could also get a teaching job 6-8hours a week for 40 000baht a month, if you did not work enough during your life, you still have time to make some ok money

English teachers ear 1250 an hour?

To the topic, I do hope the conversion rate does swing back the other direction, but I think this is just wishful thinking. I do not blame the Chinese, I blame the "bush, "we should have up-rooted him long a go.

[hanibal7]

I based my stay on a 5% inflation per year,as i have a few quid savings,which may bring me between 5-10% per annum.Anybody retiring should think of these things.

Edited April 10, 2008 by hanibal7

[Huey]

hey quite whining.

I have to change my money from us to canadian, back to us then back to thailand baht.

When you have to lose so much in fee's and exchange rates.. then you can whine.

OR you could also get a teaching job 6-8hours a week for 40 000baht a month, if you did not work enough during your life, you still have time to make some ok money

English teachers ear 1250 an hour?

To the topic, I do hope the conversion rate does swing back the other direction, but I think this is just wishful thinking. I do not blame the Chinese, I blame the "bush, "we should have up-rooted him long a go.

Yeah like when he STOLE the election the first time, I guess no one cared because of who the votes were stolen from. Now everyone suffers because of it. I'm not of retirement age yet though I am building my home and base of operations here. I would say its better to have your funds diversified if you can afford it a business thats based locally and currency in a more stable market. Like Swiss accounts, UBS can put together a nice wealth management portfolio for us for just $250,000 and despite the recent sub-prime write offs they still averaged 9-12% annual returns for that level of investment.

[nick2k]

I agree... the reason why we have the problems with the dollar is because of president bush, and his free trade frenzy.

granted, I think free trade is good. BUT only if it is FAIR trade. ..what we have now is NOT fair trade. president bush and his cronies are allowing this unfair trade to continue which is why I blame him. we currently have over a trillion+ trade debt with china, and it is growing. but bush is not doing anything about it.

he is an idiot.

china's role in all this is that - the usa allows china to sell anything and everything they want in the usa. but china doesn't allow the usa the same flexibility. THAT IS WHY THEY HAVE OVER A TRILLION DOLLAR SURPLUS WITH US.

warren buffet publicly said that the usa should not practice for protectionism. yet he seems to ignore the fact that EVERYBODY else IS.

china won't allow the usa to sell the iphone in their country. they don't allow chinese citizens to invest too much in the usa. they steal our IP products like movies, software, music, and sell it pirated.

what really makes me wonder a lot more is - usa companies built factories in china and teach the chinese how to make our IP products. which allows them to clone or steal them via compulsory licensing.

get this. intel built a microchip factory in china essentially GIVING them our technology WHICH can be used to upgrade their military might. we spend BILLIONS to improve our military to keep up with russia, and then, we give this improved technology on a plate to them.

talk about a brainless idiot. he ALLOWED countries like china and india to damage the usa. someone on his cabinet sure did a good job to brainwash him. I wonder who it was?

I am glad president bush will be gone next year. but I think the mccain, hillary, and obama are not good for america either. they care more about the illegal aliens than they do for americans and america.

[ray23]

Policeman of the world fully agree let the UN do it or not and let the chips fall where they may.

I really don't see this as politics, but business. People make huge sums of money trading currencies EG Soro and the GBP.

Greed in business drove this, risks were taken that should not have been. Was it a good bet apparently so for the CEO's involved.

I don't think any national government set out with a plan. But they are left with the problems.

The days of only the dollar being hit seem to be over.

Personally I can do better here on 25 to 1 then I could in the states. Three devoirces rebuilding my life five times now. Was I preapred for all this not hardly. But I have been very conservative here from the start. I didn't undertand the first thing about economics or exchange rates.

I've actually learned a lot form posters on here in the past years. I can't control what the exchange rates are but I can control what I spend.

Will things change I think so, when I have no idea. It isn't just the US that needs this fixed everyday it becomes more clear that this is an international problem.

At first everyone said decoupling would protect the world economy more and more it looks as if this is not the case.

Will a new President help, sure won't hurt. I think people will be more hopeful with a change. However the problems are still going to be there and it is going to take major work to turn this around.

So I'm not planning any expensive vacations in the near future.

[Zpete]

I have sympathy for many expats, from UK and US.

Four years ago, I was given 20 baht per $NZ1.00

Last trip, August, 3rd last year the FX desks at Swampypool, gave me 26 baht, that is great.

George Bush has trashed the USA, and the $US, with his and his father's personal war.

I make him a war criminal, killing all those yound American boys and girls.

New Zealand dollar has risen from around 56 US cents over last 4 years or so..

Now sitting around 80 cents US.

Similar rises against the Brit pound, not quite as much against the euro.

Also, interest rates in NZ, banks give me 8.2% on call. RaboBank, others are closing.

Fixed term bank investments, I am getting 9.4% on one for 6 months.

It would brown me off to have to bring dosh to Thailand, if ever I decided to live there.

Smething I would love to be able to do, health holds me back.

Edited April 10, 2008 by Zpete

[lazeeboy]

if a dodgy rate is hurting early retirees ,then they retired too early

[rewket]

if a dodgy rate is hurting early retirees ,then they retired too early

seriously.. i know a couple of 24yo's living on 60 000baht a month here pretty confortably.

If you're having money issues because of exchange rate, you havent worked hard enough to move here yet.

<deleted>. VERY NICE HOUSE for 50k US , easy to find. food monthly, can easly be under 600$ and 300-600$ for extras per month, if you dont get that with your retirement fund, moving to zimbabwe might be a bad idea too.

[tw25rw]

Like Swiss accounts, UBS can put together a nice wealth management portfolio for us for just $250,000 and despite the recent sub-prime write offs they still averaged 9-12% annual returns for that level of investment.

I recently worked for UBS and have seen them from the inside. If I became wealthy, there is no way I would trust them with my money! What a chaotic pile of <deleted>!

[Johpa]

I do fell for the guys who planned their retirements on the dollar rate but it doesn't take a genius to work out that the world order is changing and our oriental cousins the Chinese are the top of the pyramid

If you are one who didn't like the Thais calling you Farang then you are really not going to like the person at the top of the pyramid calling you Gwailo.

[Dakhar]

if a dodgy rate is hurting early retirees ,then they retired too early

seriously.. i know a couple of 24yo's living on 60 000baht a month here pretty confortably.

If you're having money issues because of exchange rate, you havent worked hard enough to move here yet.

<deleted>. VERY NICE HOUSE for 50k US , easy to find. food monthly, can easly be under 600$ and 300-600$ for extras per month, if you dont get that with your retirement fund, moving to zimbabwe might be a bad idea too.

Your idea of nice and my idea of nice do not match. The house I have my sites on is 300K USD. I wish the Baht would shift so I could buy the house in cash. I get paid in bahts & USD. My meager/low risk investments pay in both US and BAHTs....

So I ride the fence either way. No I am not retired, I wish I were, but there are no such visas for people my age.

[slackula]

Mission accomplished?

[Huey]

Like Swiss accounts, UBS can put together a nice wealth management portfolio for us for just $250,000 and despite the recent sub-prime write offs they still averaged 9-12% annual returns for that level of investment.

I recently worked for UBS and have seen them from the inside. If I became wealthy, there is no way I would trust them with my money! What a chaotic pile of <deleted>!

Thanks for the heads up I'll consider that when I just wanna sit around and collect interest

[dee123]

....i remember 30-40 years ago being told "in the future China will be the most powerful nation"....thought everyone knew that,....just surprised how long it took,...

[Tinkelbell]

....i remember 30-40 years ago being told "in the future China will be the most powerful nation"....thought everyone knew that,....just surprised how long it took,...

I have a similar story to share.

While growing up in Thailand in the '60s, my brother (who at that time was working as an economist for ESCAP -UN unit at Sala Santhitharm in BKK, offen recited what the French ruler Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821) said about China....." China is a sleeping giant, once it wakes up, it will shake the world."

He was so right, although it takes more than over two centuries.

[Johpa]

While growing up in Thailand in the '60s, my brother (who at that time was working as an economist for ESCAP -UN unit at Sala Santhitharm in BKK, offen recited what the French ruler Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821) said about China....." China is a sleeping giant, once it wakes up, it will shake the world."

He was so right, although it takes more than over two centuries.

Seeing how China has shaken up Tibet, not to mention their deplorable human rights record, I would prefer waiting a few more centuries.

[JimmyCA]

I offer my current thoughts here:

China is responsible for the falling dollar.

It really has little to do with the chineese and much to do with the US national balance sheet. Very high debt and shrinking manufacturing base have caused most of the decline.

Since the dollar became the reserve currency for international transactions after WW2 the US has not had to maintain a strong national balanse sheet like other countries to generate foreign reserves, i.e US foreign reserves = US domestic reserves = dollar reserves. Run low and print more. Keep printing dollars and you get to where we are.

Keep your investments in hard currency and commodities if you want to survive

[Tinkelbell]

While growing up in Thailand in the '60s, my brother (who at that time was working as an economist for ESCAP -UN unit at Sala Santhitharm in BKK, offen recited what the French ruler Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821) said about China....." China is a sleeping giant, once it wakes up, it will shake the world."

He was so right, although it takes more than over two centuries.

Seeing how China has shaken up Tibet, not to mention their deplorable human rights record, I would prefer waiting a few more centuries.

Not me, I prefer SHE would never wake up !!!

[Naam]

Like Swiss accounts, UBS can put together a nice wealth management portfolio for us for just $250,000 and despite the recent sub-prime write offs they still averaged 9-12% annual returns for that level of investment.

only in some wet dreams! UBS's "medium risk" portfolio yielded in 2006 ~6.25% and in 2007 ~1.50% and the "high risk" one was down 18% in 2007 even at an average 8% i'd accept UBS wealth management.

[Gary A]

Yeah like when he STOLE the election the first time, I guess no one cared because of who the votes were stolen from. Now everyone suffers because of it. I'm not of retirement age yet though I am building my home and base of operations here. I would say its better to have your funds diversified if you can afford it a business thats based locally and currency in a more stable market. Like Swiss accounts, UBS can put together a nice wealth management portfolio for us for just $250,000 and despite the recent sub-prime write offs they still averaged 9-12% annual returns for that level of investment.

Stolen votes? The democrats have no one to blame but themselves. If they had had a credible candidate either time Bush would never have been elected. It is depressing to think that the best they can come up with is Gore and Kerry. It appears that they are following the same path this time. NEVER would I have dreamed that another republican had any chance of being elected this time.

[Dakhar]

Yes, it seems that a re-run is about to be played AGAIN.

I am about ready to give up on my home land.

[JimmyCA]

Like Swiss accounts, UBS can put together a nice wealth management portfolio for us for just $250,000 and despite the recent sub-prime write offs they still averaged 9-12% annual returns for that level of investment.

only in some wet dreams! UBS's "medium risk" portfolio yielded in 2006 ~6.25% and in 2007 ~1.50% and the "high risk" one was down 18% in 2007 even at an average 8% i'd accept UBS wealth management.

Pretty piss poor returns given the markets were way up in 06 and also up 07. My own portfolio was up 22% in 2006 and 11% in 2007. People should not count on some unknown sod for something as important as investments.

[Ulysses G.]

stolen votes? The democrats have no one to blame but themselves. If they had had a credible candidate either time Bush would never have been elected. It is depressing to think that the best they can come up with is Gore and Kerry. It appears that they are following the same path this time. NEVER would I have dreamed that another republican had any chance of being elected this time.

China finally allowed the Yuan to strengthen. Will that make the dollar stronger as well?

Obama seems sincere and he is charismic as can be. He is an intelligent, articulate black man who speaks and acts like a white person. The main thing that I don't like about him is he claims that he will just yank all the troops out immediately which seems foolish to me.

He has an excellent chance of winning.

[GuestHouse]

Pretty piss poor returns given the markets were way up in 06 and also up 07. My own portfolio was up 22% in 2006 and 11% in 2007. People should not count on some unknown sod for something as important as investments.

Hog Wash - Not everyone has the knowledge, the time, the ability or inclination to study and understand financial markets and financial planning. Many quite rightly are too busy living their lives to spend time 'investing'.

For these people, investing through fund managers is a very good option, they let the professionals take care of the investments while they go out and live life.

--

I'm almost tempted to ask how much your investments have fallen recently .... BUT .... I halt myself .... remembering I disregard ANY AND ALL claims made by people in Internet Forums on the subject of gains and losses on investments, on the stock market, with property and in business.

[steveromagnino]

I'm almost tempted to ask how much your investments have fallen recently .... BUT .... I halt myself .... remembering I disregard ANY AND ALL claims made by people in Internet Forums on the subject of gains and losses on investments, on the stock market, with property and in business.

I made like 100, no 200, no 500% return so far this year with my unbeatable system called 'super system mark 4'

Give me $100,000,000 and I can earn that for you. Would you like my hotmail address???

Actually, there is little reason why an individual cannot learn how to look after things themselves; however the same could be said for doing tax returns, cleaning, driving, washing the car, etc.

Fund management - as Globochem once said, 'we own everything....so you don't have to'

Some of the threads and understanding of China's role in USA's financial problems would suggest that a fair few people would be better to leave things in the hands of professionals. As for UBS, basket case - anything related to Alinghi sucks the big one.

[JimmyCA]

Pretty piss poor returns given the markets were way up in 06 and also up 07. My own portfolio was up 22% in 2006 and 11% in 2007. People should not count on some unknown sod for something as important as investments.

Hog Wash - Not everyone has the knowledge, the time, the ability or inclination to study and understand financial markets and financial planning. Many quite rightly are too busy living their lives to spend time 'investing'.

For these people, investing through fund managers is a very good option, they let the professionals take care of the investments while they go out and live life.

--

I'm almost tempted to ask how much your investments have fallen recently .... BUT .... I halt myself .... remembering I disregard ANY AND ALL claims made by people in Internet Forums on the subject of gains and losses on investments, on the stock market, with property and in business.

Even using "professionals" you have to be personally responsible or you can wind up with squat. Following your advise is how people slowly get screwed by "financial professionals" I meet alot of piss poor old sods in Thailand who did not pay attention to their investments. Over a fifty year period a good savings plan and a little time understanding investments are more important than your career choice.

As for my returns 2006 and 2007 are as mentioned, 2008 thru 3/31/2008 -15%, that reads minus fifteen percent.

Hard to find someone who is up EVERY year.

[YoungFarang13]

the us gov wants the dollar down... if they actually cared they wouldnt have just sent out 300 billion in tax rebates...

youll just have to ride it out

[Misty]

Pretty piss poor returns given the markets were way up in 06 and also up 07. My own portfolio was up 22% in 2006 and 11% in 2007. People should not count on some unknown sod for something as important as investments.

Hog Wash - Not everyone has the knowledge, the time, the ability or inclination to study and understand financial markets and financial planning. Many quite rightly are too busy living their lives to spend time 'investing'.

For these people, investing through fund managers is a very good option, they let the professionals take care of the investments while they go out and live life.

--

I'm almost tempted to ask how much your investments have fallen recently .... BUT .... I halt myself .... remembering I disregard ANY AND ALL claims made by people in Internet Forums on the subject of gains and losses on investments, on the stock market, with property and in business.

As usual, I find I agree with GuestHouse's comments. I might add that before counting on an unknown sod, do a bit of due diligence on them first. There are all too many yahoos in Bangkok making unsubstantiated claims and falsifying backgrounds.

[LivinLOS]

American ex-pats in Thailand are in trouble. The value of their retirement nest eggs has fallen over 25% in just the past few years.

For a person on a fixed-income that may be the difference between eating at a farang cafe for an early morning coffee and making instant at home. Neither is a great hardship when compared to the average Thai household, but to a man who had dreamed of taking his final years in leisure and indolence, it can make a difference.

I offer my current thoughts here:

China is responsible for the falling dollar.

Had China re-valued their Yuan currency when asked to do so by the US last year, international money traders and speculators wouldn't now be driving the dollar lower to reach what, they think, is the appropriate exchange rate between the two.

That this pushing of the dollar down against the Yuan is also reflected in it's value relative to the Euro, Pound, and Deutschmark is ancillary, but required to keep the relative rates between them the same.

If China had used an army of men to invade and do as much damage as has been caused by the fall of the dollar, the USA would not hesitate to use an equal force against them.

What in the arsenal of the USA can be used against an exchange rate attack?

Is this a new phenomenon, (exchange rate wars), or have I just noticed it?

You really dont have much of a financial clue do you ??

The US has been printing its money and expansing money supply at a horrific rate.. What happens when you increase the supply of something ?? its value goes down !!

To attempt to not let amercans deflate thier way out of the debt they have created (ha ha ha.. greenspan even called it a 'savings glut'.. Yeah sure, my bank accounts are a 'glut'.. It would be funny if it was any less tragic.. and the proles lap this shit up).. everyone else is trying to defalte equally as fast and increase thier money supply. Net result we are about to enter a period of truly massive inflation !!!

Not only is the USD going down (and everyone else trying to sink at the same time) but even those dollars that are still there are going to buy far far less.

Simple simple cause and effects. None of this was any kind of surprise.