Gloomy Days Ahead For Asia's Housing Markets

[bingobongo]

you know the drill......right now the real estate market is in the denial stage.........and soon interest rates will rise

Edited May 17, 2008 by bingobongo

[ray08]

Major markets like the USA , UK ( London ) Australia ( Sydney ) are off the boil and in negative growth with very low clearance rates,i expect this year will continue like that , myself i am a buyer ,but never in thailand for lots of reason i have said before,main one is prices not justified by demand and most important a very very small second hand market ,

As for prices coming down in Thailand ? I do not think it is going to happen ,most of the Rich Thais who own properties will just sit on the same properties they had for years ,and happy with the value they put on it ,even if not reality ,

Some investors with heavy borrowings or speculators might drop the price a bit , but again i have very little faith in the Thai market

to follow any logic , remember the avg thai wage is around guessing Thb 10k per month , so the people who have these properites are not your average thai workers ,but well off people who can hold investments for a long time without much worry , compared to say in sydney where the market is going down and the average workers are the big lossers in the Aud$400-$800K properties ,

I am looking for bargains , but for sure won,t find any here in Thailand, if anything maybe even price increase this year

[pkrv]

As for you, thaigene2, you provide reasonable points of discussion. I am not up to date on the current Visa issues, so if you could explain why this is a serious problem I would appreciate it. Specifically, how does it affect someone like me who is married to a Thai and planning on retiring to Thailand when I am in my 60's? Or how about someone like pkrv who is not married to a Thai but planning on retiring here sometime after the age of 50?

Well, as I've said before I'm also married to a Thai and we have kids here. So compared to many I 'should' be better off right? The answer is only a qualified 'sort of'. I can get a visa to 'support or visit my family' but am expected to prove income to get a renewal...thing is no one is really sure whether that will change, how it will change, how much income will be required from year to year....it keeps changing - begin to see the picture? Then consider that we are banned from working in most professions or even from owning our own small businesses.

So if a guy like me (and the many others reading this) are only 'sort of' better off, then it raises some pretty big questions about anyone else with no tie whatsover to the Kingdom, except 'they bought a condo' - now if the Thai Govt doesn't give a rat's ass about those of us married to their citizens and fathers of Thai nationals, then how much do you suppose they care about some guy who's bought a 6 or 8 million baht condo and wants to live here year round on a 'retirement visa'? I mean he's ALEADY spent the money right? So who needs him now? For his little weekly spend in the supermarket or a restaurant? Does rich Mr Thai-Chinese politician or mover and shaker care about that? They don't like farangs here in the first place - we intimidate them and if our numbers were to swell, we could challenge them in business. So better to keep us under their thumb so to speak.

Now regarding marriage to a Thai - I mean, I/we can't simply buy and put it in the kids' names (though some lawyers say this seems unclear). I can't have any claim to my wife's property - and neither can you with yours. If you/we were to buy a place in our wife's name - sign away our rights - then break up with them, we/I would have only a shakey case to make to even 'remain' in the country with my kids.

Now as for your question about retirement visa, we are entitled to a retirement visa at 50 (I understand) not there yet myself..But as above, how much confidence do you have that income requirements of 40,000 baht per month won't become 60,000 baht next month and 120,000 baht two years from now? It keeps changing. Can you imagine the absurdity of it all if you spent most of your life savings to buy a condo here - only to find out two years from now that your penion is no longer sufficient to meet the minimum monthly income to get a visa renewed?

I can imagine it..

Thank you thaigene2 for the response. Now for a few comments.

I agree that for those who are under 50 years of age, staying here has become much more difficult. For me, I would have to have a work permit to even consider living in Thailand now. You could set up a Thai company and obtain a work permit, so I'm not sure I agree with your comment regarding not being able to own your own small business. Not having done this nor even looked into doing this, I will let others comment upon who is right in this respect. I do know that Sunbelt Asia sells businesses that allow for a work permit so I know it can be done. If you are referring to a single proprietorship then I agree with you. As a point of comparison, a Thai getting a work permit in the US would be much more difficult than me getting a work permit in Thailand.

In my understanding, anyone over 50 years of age has a significant advantage with regards to the visa situation over anyone that is under the age of 50. The fact that you are only slightly better off than someone who is not married doesn't change this. As I see it, married to a Thai spouse or not is not important once you have reached the age of 50. It is obvious to me that the retirement visa is the best visa available to anyone that is interested in living in Thailand and not planning to work for a living in Thailand.

Why do you say that you can't simply buy and put it in your kid's name? This has been discussed extensively in this forum and the consenus has always been that you can do this. The problem is that when property is in the name of a child, then that property can't be sold until the child is of legal age (somewhere between 18 and 21 years old) unless a court determines that the sale is in the best interest of the child. For me and presumably you, that restriction is enough for us not to even consider this option.

My conclusion from all of this is that I would only recommend buying property in Thailand if you plan on using it as a retirement home for use after you are 50 years old or if you have a work permit and intend on remain working in Thailand for at least four years. Being married to a Thai should only be a consideration for those of us who are comfortable with putting everything into our spouse's name and this is only with respect to owning land since condos can be put in your name.

I agree that those under the age of 50 have definitely been affected by the visa changes. I disagree with your projection into the future that the retirement visas will be significantly more difficult to obtain. I would expect the minimum monthly income requirement to increase over time, but the current requirement of 40,000 per month is still well below what I would consider to be a comfortable monthly income. I plan to have at least 150,000 baht per month income adjusted for inflation in the future. I agree that monthly retirement income needs to be carefully examined prior to investing in property purchases no matter where you plan on buying property.

Again, thank you for your reasonable response.

And thank you too donx - you have consolidated a vast amount of information from many threads into a well written coherent summary - I also note that thaigene2 also cross references past information - ALWAYS a good sign even if agreement is not always found.

thaigene2 - much like quiksilver- I too have gained immeasurable amount of help from this forum but can also say I have had to cut through tons of crap also (not you). I too wish to return some of what I have learned as payment for all the help I have received in the past. That is my true motive for my contributions, but I do get fed up of of the crap, it simply wastes time.

I try to stay out of house/land ownership issues (However I was one of those who proactively tried to differentiate between land/home ownership and condominium ownership – which has earned me some bitter enemies on this forum – BTW it was because I was utterly confused some 4 years ago), but obviously I have seen posts on the subject of home ownership and generally concur with your conclusions.

Edited May 18, 2008 by pkrv

[bingobongo]

In today's lesson we will examine why it is so important to separate emotions from investing decisions, because if not, then poor decisions will be made and those who are emotional will be separated from their money.

People develop emotional attachments to their homes/condos. There is a wall in the bedroom where little Somchai's height has been measured for the last several years. There is the patio with the children's names etched into the concrete. There are the neighbors with whom people have shared meals. All of these little things create a sense of groundedness and a feeling of community. All of these things are lost when debt is unmanageable and the property is vacated.

When overpaying for a condo/home, there are also the elements of ego involved. There are feelings of failure, particularly for those who feel the duty to provide for their families. There is the disappearance of illusions of wealth and status, and adjusting to a significant reduction in buying power is very stressful. We have had many foolish bulls post on this thread.

There is a large amount of overbuilt, empty, overpriced and poorly constructed LOS domiciles. And with inflation raging and interest rates about to rise, the embarrassment of being so completely wrong and the shame of losing face is very difficult for many to accept.

So keep your powder dry, let the next coup and interest rate adjustment occur and pick over the bones of those that made emotional (and thus poor) real estate investments.

[Naam]

In today's lesson we will....

yawwwwwnnnnn...

[backflip]

"with inflation raging and interest rates about to rise..."

And the mafia, and the monsters under your bed...

[pkrv]

"with inflation raging and interest rates about to rise..."

And the mafia, and the monsters under your bed...

backflip -Sorry I MUST contradict you - you forgot the communists.

[thaigene2]

"with inflation raging and interest rates about to rise..."

And the mafia, and the monsters under your bed...

backflip -Sorry I MUST contradict you - you forgot the communists.

No, the communists are under HIS bed...

[raybingham]

In today's lesson we will....

yawwwwwnnnnn...

Come on, come on !

I can't be the only one waiting with baited-breath for Bingo Bongo's next lesson

[backflip]

"No, the communists are under HIS bed..."

But, I'm not afraid of them.

[palm]

In today's lesson we will....

yawwwwwnnnnn...

Come on, come on !

I can't be the only one waiting with baited-breath for Bingo Bongo's next lesson

Yes, its always funny being lectured to by bingobongo, sitting there in his cardboard box and wearing old newspapers for clothes. My theory is he was born ginger.

[Naam]

"with inflation raging and interest rates about to rise..."

And the mafia, and the monsters under your bed...

backflip -Sorry I MUST contradict you - you forgot the communists.

No, the communists are under HIS bed...

what about aliens?

[Naam]

Bingo's greatest concern is that 10Y-UST will reach 4.20% because then the sky will fall (according to him). today we are at 3.93%.

[bingobongo]

the power of delusion truly is amazing, first it happened in Japan, now the US, UK, Spain, Vietnam, and now Taiwan..........what makes LOS immune from the pain? bar girls? coups? unstable gvt? inflation? i think not, taiwan has a stronger economy than LOS so get ready......

LOS is not "special" and will not be immune from real estate pain just becasue you want it to be.....................and soon the BOT will raise rates

Taiwan Real Estate Experts To Sound Alarm Over Housing

Some economists believe that the overheated market caused by speculation and the popularity of real estate as an investment has left residential property prices artifically inflated by about 30 per cent.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/080519/3/16wtk.html?ref=patrick.net

Edited May 23, 2008 by bingobongo

[palm]

the power of delusion truly is amazing, first it happened in Japan, now the US, UK, Spain, Vietnam, and now Taiwan..........what makes LOS immune from the pain? bar girls? coups? unstable gvt? inflation? i think not, taiwan has a stronger economy than LOS so get ready......

LOS is not "special" and will not be immune from real estate pain just becasue you want it to be.....................and soon the BOT will raise rates

Taiwan Real Estate Experts To Sound Alarm Over Housing

Some economists believe that the overheated market caused by speculation and the popularity of real estate as an investment has left residential property prices artifically inflated by about 30 per cent.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/080519/3/16wtk.html?ref=patrick.net

Sheesh, some of your posts are so unbelievably naive. If people actually read your previous posts and followed your economic advice, they'd be in the same poorhouse are you appear to be now. No wonder you keep posting dozens of anti-Thailand and anti-expat claptrap so often.

Most foreigners in Thailand buy their properties outright. They are not home-debtors, they paid cash. They have also seen massive gains in the Baht's value over the past few years. Steel prices are skyrocketing, prime land prices here are also skyrocketing.

You clearly don't own anything in Thailand, so its funny to see your constant, desperate postings on a forum dedicated to a country you don't even live in.

[Crushdepth]

you know the drill......right now the real estate market is in the denial stage.........and soon interest rates will rise

So? They go up they go down. Why all the noise and drama? You up to your eyeballs in debt or something?

[backflip]

"the power of delusion truly is amazing..."

Truely. Your delusion is that you understand economics - generally - and real estate - specifically.

You are TV's favorite jeremiah.

[think_too_mut]

So? They go up they go down. Why all the noise and drama? You up to your eyeballs in debt or something?

Up and down their growth may vary but in (until now) widely accepted theory, it always goes only 1 way - up.

That lazy and stupid premise has led to this global credit crunch. Now we have property values diminishig to zero.

Thailand is not stranger to that .... abandoned see-through scysrcapers whose demolishing cost is (still) not worth the land under them are all over the skyline. There were 384 of them in 1998.

Edited May 25, 2008 by think_too_mut

[donx]

Thailand is not stranger to that .... abandoned see-through scysrcapers whose demolishing cost is (still) not worth the land under them are all over the skyline. There were 384 of them in 1998.

Interesting. There were 384 of them in 1998. I did not know how many there were. How many abandoned skyscrapers are there now? I believe quiksilva claimed that almost all of those abandoned buildings from 1998 have been taken over, completed, restarted - or whatever and are no longer remaining dormant. So how many of the 384 are still dormant? I personally have seen a few while in Bangkok, but I don't live there so I usually only see a few.

[think_too_mut]

Thailand is not stranger to that .... abandoned see-through scysrcapers whose demolishing cost is (still) not worth the land under them are all over the skyline. There were 384 of them in 1998.

Interesting. There were 384 of them in 1998. I did not know how many there were. How many abandoned skyscrapers are there now? I believe quiksilva claimed that almost all of those abandoned buildings from 1998 have been taken over, completed, restarted - or whatever and are no longer remaining dormant. So how many of the 384 are still dormant? I personally have seen a few while in Bangkok, but I don't live there so I usually only see a few.

There was a law that after 5 years of exposure, abandoned buildings must be demolished.

The pics I posted were taken 2 weeks ago. From my window I can see the skeletons of about 10 skyscrapers on the other side of the river (Thonburi side).

I know of several that got the amnesty and clearance to restart development.

Your "So how many of the 384 are still dormant?" I leave for your own research or to somebody else to count them and report.

[backflip]

"Now we have property values diminishig to zero."

Nope, but there has been a noticeable decline in common sense.

[Heng]

Abandoned buildings can still be found, but they are hardly at the late 90's numbers. Taking over old projects (whether questionable safety wise or not) is certainly more predominant than demolishing.

[think_too_mut]

Abandoned buildings can still be found, but they are hardly at the late 90's numbers. Taking over old projects (whether questionable safety wise or not) is certainly more predominant than demolishing.

How do you demolish them? They can't just dynamite them, steel and concrete would not just fall.

This one, accross the road from Robinson at Ratchadaphisek, after years of being an eye sore, is going up again. If you know it had been abandoned for 9 years, you can notice rusty armature inside.

[Gravelrash]

Really can't see what all the fuss is about? If you don't want to buy or can't afford it then don't. If you do want to buy or can afford it then do. It isn't always about right and wrong as that is a very grey area, it is about what suits peoples needs.

Know many do well with home investments to live here, good. Others do well with investments here, good. Others do well neither at home or here, not good. At the end of the day if you are happy with your choice and it works for you, then why bother bickering with others about it?

Thaigenie, you can buy a house in your childrens name, but yes difficult to sell until of age. But there again isn't it really just an advance inheritance anyway. Slap a lease on for good measure to keep any ex-wife at bay. Also if over 50 can also get a visa for the kids supporting you, don't need to show income.

[Heng]

Abandoned buildings can still be found, but they are hardly at the late 90's numbers. Taking over old projects (whether questionable safety wise or not) is certainly more predominant than demolishing.

How do you demolish them? They can't just dynamite them, steel and concrete would not just fall.

This one, accross the road from Robinson at Ratchadaphisek, after years of being an eye sore, is going up again. If you know it had been abandoned for 9 years, you can notice rusty armature inside.

Yeah, I don't think there are any controlled demolition companies doing any work here yet, but it's only a matter of time before they start getting work here. The current method is sledgehammer and rubble bagged and carted down by hand.

[Heng]

Really can't see what all the fuss is about? If you don't want to buy or can't afford it then don't. If you do want to buy or can afford it then do. It isn't always about right and wrong as that is a very grey area, it is about what suits peoples needs.

Some people resent those who have bought homes and haven't lost them. IMO it's as simple as that. The rules and disadvantages are well published and by no means kept secret from potential buyers, and buying is certainly not for everyone... yet there are those who clearly harbor a grudge of some kind and choose to whine on endlessly about it all.

[donx]

Thailand is not stranger to that .... abandoned see-through scysrcapers whose demolishing cost is (still) not worth the land under them are all over the skyline. There were 384 of them in 1998.

Interesting. There were 384 of them in 1998. I did not know how many there were. How many abandoned skyscrapers are there now? I believe quiksilva claimed that almost all of those abandoned buildings from 1998 have been taken over, completed, restarted - or whatever and are no longer remaining dormant. So how many of the 384 are still dormant? I personally have seen a few while in Bangkok, but I don't live there so I usually only see a few.

There was a law that after 5 years of exposure, abandoned buildings must be demolished.

The pics I posted were taken 2 weeks ago. From my window I can see the skeletons of about 10 skyscrapers on the other side of the river (Thonburi side).

I know of several that got the amnesty and clearance to restart development.

Your "So how many of the 384 are still dormant?" I leave for your own research or to somebody else to count them and report.

You gave such an exact number, 384, that I assume you got this from some official report. What is your source for this assertion? I also assumed that since you have that number you probably have the number of currently abandoned buildings. If not then perhaps someone else can provide that information.

[think_too_mut]

Thailand is not stranger to that .... abandoned see-through scysrcapers whose demolishing cost is (still) not worth the land under them are all over the skyline. There were 384 of them in 1998.

Interesting. There were 384 of them in 1998. I did not know how many there were. How many abandoned skyscrapers are there now? I believe quiksilva claimed that almost all of those abandoned buildings from 1998 have been taken over, completed, restarted - or whatever and are no longer remaining dormant. So how many of the 384 are still dormant? I personally have seen a few while in Bangkok, but I don't live there so I usually only see a few.

There was a law that after 5 years of exposure, abandoned buildings must be demolished.

The pics I posted were taken 2 weeks ago. From my window I can see the skeletons of about 10 skyscrapers on the other side of the river (Thonburi side).

I know of several that got the amnesty and clearance to restart development.

Your "So how many of the 384 are still dormant?" I leave for your own research or to somebody else to count them and report.

You gave such an exact number, 384, that I assume you got this from some official report. What is your source for this assertion? I also assumed that since you have that number you probably have the number of currently abandoned buildings. If not then perhaps someone else can provide that information.

Sir, I have no other purpose in my life than answering your questions. Bear with me Sir, when I manage to take some (unpaid) time off from my job, i will endevor to satisfy your curiosity.

Sir, you are not a clone of the discredited Quiksilva? No?

Edited May 25, 2008 by think_too_mut

[bingobongo]

come on palm and backlflip, you are going to have to do better than that

palm, has the midlife crisis subsided yet? do not destroy your son's life with your own selfish decisions

anyway, real estate bulls, inflation is rampant in LOS as well as globally, and interest rates will be increased before the year is up

but how do you propose to include this delicious morsel in the glossy brochures to those who refuse to believe the hype as LOS as a land of rainbows and lollipops?

will it be illegal to double park next to an armored Tank once they roll on the streets of Bangkok? maybe that can be a selling point, i can see it now in the glossy brochure "free parking next to any tank with the purchase of any condo"

Thai constitution changes spark coup fears

http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/news/stor....htm?tab=latest

Edited May 25, 2008 by bingobongo

[donx]

Thailand is not stranger to that .... abandoned see-through scysrcapers whose demolishing cost is (still) not worth the land under them are all over the skyline. There were 384 of them in 1998.

Interesting. There were 384 of them in 1998. I did not know how many there were. How many abandoned skyscrapers are there now? I believe quiksilva claimed that almost all of those abandoned buildings from 1998 have been taken over, completed, restarted - or whatever and are no longer remaining dormant. So how many of the 384 are still dormant? I personally have seen a few while in Bangkok, but I don't live there so I usually only see a few.

There was a law that after 5 years of exposure, abandoned buildings must be demolished.

The pics I posted were taken 2 weeks ago. From my window I can see the skeletons of about 10 skyscrapers on the other side of the river (Thonburi side).

I know of several that got the amnesty and clearance to restart development.

Your "So how many of the 384 are still dormant?" I leave for your own research or to somebody else to count them and report.

You gave such an exact number, 384, that I assume you got this from some official report. What is your source for this assertion? I also assumed that since you have that number you probably have the number of currently abandoned buildings. If not then perhaps someone else can provide that information.

Sir, I have no other purpose in my life than answering your questions. Bear with me Sir, when I manage to take some (unpaid) time off from my job, i will endevor to satisfy your curiosity.

Sir, you are not a clone of the discredited Quiksilva? No?

All I am asking for is where you got such an exact figure of 384 abandoned buildings from.