When Will The Pound Be My Friend?

[tipsy]

Ok, This maybe a stupid question......

I have just had to transfer money to buy a car, but the rate against my pound was 60bish. I am looking to invest / develop a business idea of mine which will cost me an awful awful lot more than my car did!

Just wondering if you guys can you help me out? Do you think its likely to go up again and if so soon? Is there a trend that the rate normally follows? Or just personal opinions?

I have been here for a long time but up until I moved to CM I earned my money in Baht so the EXRate was never an issue to me.

Any help would be appreciated as the difference between 60 + 70 over a lot of money will mean a lot

Thanks

[sweetchariot]

I just wrote a long reply, and clicked the wrong <deleted> button.

Ok - in brief. There is massive inflationary pressure in the UK to deserve a few rate rises over the next few months. The unelected PM over there does not want to do this due to the ridiculously over hyped 'credit crunch'.

However as Merv King has been reappointed as the chairman of the MPC, I am sure he will not be intimidated by a soon to depart PM, who has abandoned all his monetary values to try and save his fat skin.

The MPC (as it's name suggests), is there to deliver monetary policy. For anyone reading this without an Economic background, this basically means controlling inflation by means of interest rates.

So a few rate rises are imminent. The problem is that nobody seems to know why the Baht is so strong at the moment. I know a few hedgers who are speculating on the baht due (again) to inflationary pressures. The difference between here and the UK is that they can lie for years here before they are ousted, in the UK it only takes a few weeks/months.

It all depends on how quickly you need to get the cash over to seal the deal, but if I were in your shoes I would delay it for a few months, I am sure you will see the £ strengthen.

Good luck

[Naam]

So a few rate rises are imminent.

i [not so] humbly beg to disagree and my best [uneducated] guess is that on top of the rate cut last december another one will follow in 2008

[johnsjourney]

sounds like up to 5% is going to bank commissions hidden in the exchange rate, get a Nationwide card and get most of 63 baht (I haven't checked what I'm getting at the moment but it's always been close to the real currency rate, currently around 63)

I only have spending money in pounds, not being a pensioner I'm lucky I can still move into fast growing economies rather than dependent on one relying on highly leveraged (mortgaged) flat or falling asset (UK property). A huge chunk of UK spending relies on remortgaging that is no longer possible, and that's just if house prices stay flat. The UK economy will get worse and usually weak economies have low interest rates and currencies. But of course one needs to be very careful with money in Thailand too.

[lannarebirth]

Ok, This maybe a stupid question......

I have just had to transfer money to buy a car, but the rate against my pound was 60bish. I am looking to invest / develop a business idea of mine which will cost me an awful awful lot more than my car did!

Just wondering if you guys can you help me out? Do you think its likely to go up again and if so soon? Is there a trend that the rate normally follows? Or just personal opinions?

I have been here for a long time but up until I moved to CM I earned my money in Baht so the EXRate was never an issue to me.

Any help would be appreciated as the difference between 60 + 70 over a lot of money will mean a lot

Thanks

That's a pretty poor exchange rate. How did you have the funds sent? You didn't convert the GBP's to baht first and have that wired, did you? That's a big no no.

Anyway, as I've mentioned before there is no GBP vs THB trade. There is a USD vs THB trade and a USD vs GBP trade and the GBP:THB exchange is an interpolation of those.

[gobs]

Maybe you know, but never change your foreign money vs Bahts in your home country.

Send foreign money to your thay bank that changes it vs Baths at a best rate.

I did the mistake ONE time (and ONLY ONE time! for sure...) at the begining of my settlement here in LOS. In this time I lost something like 3 or 4 Bahts for each Euro... Fortunately it was not very big money. There is a strong difference between onshore and offshore rates (so-called if I remember well... and correct me if I'm wrong ).

Imagine if you are speaking of 10,000 or 100,000 Euros! Or more... GBP!..

Cheers

[iainiain101]

Ultimately, what a daft question!

If any of us knew we would all be currency speculators! Not even George Soros saw the pound going through USD 2 recently.

Basically the GBP could be worth 50 Baht or 70 Baht this time next year. No one knows. If you re planning a business, you need to plan it at the current exchange rate, and if you are reliant on funds from another country in the future, you need to trade in currency futures (hence the name) so as to be able to establish your costs and include them in your business plan.

If you then have no plan to repatriate income to the UK (assuming the business goes well) the only worry you have is inflation in Thailand ( not a small worry!)

The secret to running a good business is to try and negate variables such as currency exchange rates.

Iain

[Dave the Dude]

Q. I am looking to invest / develop a business idea of mine which will cost me an awful awful lot more than my car did!

A.

get a Nationwide card and get most of 63 baht

Fansastic, this Interknitting web for getting expert sulutions ! Spend the next 6 months at an ATM

[Marvo]

Maybe you know, but never change your foreign money vs Bahts in your home country.

Send foreign money to your thay bank that changes it vs Baths at a best rate.

I did the mistake ONE time (and ONLY ONE time! for sure...) at the begining of my settlement here in LOS. In this time I lost something like 3 or 4 Bahts for each Euro... Fortunately it was not very big money. There is a strong difference between onshore and offshore rates (so-called if I remember well... and correct me if I'm wrong ).

Imagine if you are speaking of 10,000 or 100,000 Euros! Or more... GBP!..

Cheers

Ayudhya's TT rate today is 1 GBP = 62.65 Baht (= onshore)

Take XE.COM's today's mid-market rate for the baht: 1 GBP = 62.94

XE don't sell baht so we can't do a "demo" exchage to get an actual buy/sell baht/pound rate. But applying the £ Vs $ mid-market rate to the live "demo" sell rate difference of 0.55%, 1 GBP = 62.59 Baht (= offshore)

Don't see a huge difference there between onshore and offshore anymore since the capital controls were removed back in March.

[naka]

Ok, This maybe a stupid question......

I have just had to transfer money to buy a car, but the rate against my pound was 60bish. I am looking to invest / develop a business idea of mine which will cost me an awful awful lot more than my car did!

Just wondering if you guys can you help me out? Do you think its likely to go up again and if so soon? Is there a trend that the rate normally follows? Or just personal opinions?

I have been here for a long time but up until I moved to CM I earned my money in Baht so the EXRate was never an issue to me.

Any help would be appreciated as the difference between 60 + 70 over a lot of money will mean a lot

Thanks

The Baht has been trending higher against the Dollar for about seven years and against the

Pound for around four. Major currencies dont move all that fast, so I doubt you'll see the gains you

would like to see over the short term. And of course the the Baht could become even stronger.

Naka.

[Lite Beer]

GBP now up to 63.17 At SCB TT Rate 08:59

Edited May 23, 2008 by Lite Beer

[Ray1167]

Just wondering if you guys can you help me out? Do you think its likely to go up again and if so soon? Is there a trend that the rate normally follows? Or just personal opinions?

somebody on this forum advised everybody ( about 2 months ago ) that the pound would continue to weaken. They were wrong. It's actually beginning to strengthen. My advice - Do your own research and don't ask for other people's opinions.

[taxexile]

actually beginning to strengthen

a mere blip.

the pound is expected to weaken considerably over the next year or so. holders of sterling should move into swiss francs or even gold.

thats according to an investment analyst i was chatting to recently , he had a very pessimistic view of the world economy as it stands at the moment and for the foreseable future. a slump worse than the depression of the 1920's.

get everything into swiss francs and gold , and make a fortune in a few years time when people are selling everything cheap to raise cash.

its all greek to me , so i cant really comment on his predictions.

[Bisto]

Sorry to put a damper on STG got up early this morning and watched BLOOMBERG. Two economists stated that Sterling £would be on parity with € euro within next 6-12 months

Warren Buffet Says $ Dollar will go down further and stay down.

BRING ON THE €

[billd766]

What I find a little odd about all these predictions is that the economists etc who make them are mostly employees of companies. I know that there are exceptions and always will be, but to my mind if what I predict comes true with currencies, everbody in their position would know how and where to borrow money (if you don't have enough of your own) and speculate then become millionaires and billionaires.

After all if you have enough faith in yourself (George Soros for one example) you simply get richer and richer.

I suppose that with countries it must be easier as you can always print more money or restrict the flow and become richer that way.

Or am I that stupid and that wrong?

[JAS21]

GBP now up to 63.17 At SCB TT Rate 08:59

Bangkok Bank TT closing rate this evening is indicating 63.727 if you use your Nationwide Building Society ATM Card, between now and BB opening tomorrow, you will get just a little bit better than this.

[Naam]

Two economists stated that...

:D :D :D

[Naam]

sharia law (amputation of hands) should be introduced worldwide and applied to economists and anal-ysts when they spread their lies. then "on one hand... but on the other hand..." would stop

[marshbags]

I just wrote a long reply, and clicked the wrong <deleted> button.

Ok - in brief. There is massive inflationary pressure in the UK to deserve a few rate rises over the next few months. The unelected PM over there does not want to do this due to the ridiculously over hyped 'credit crunch'.

This is not Thailand or any third world country and he is PM by virtue of party rules and can stay as such until the term the party were elected for is completed

However as Merv King has been reappointed as the chairman of the MPC, I am sure he will not be intimidated by a soon to depart PM, who has abandoned all his monetary values to try and save his fat skin.

The ongoing financial crisis is world wide and down to many factors as someone of your obvious experience and wisdom will be well aware of.

Gordon Brown has over the years as chancellor proved his credentials regarding his judgement and enhancing the U.K. economy and given time, should the problems that are ongoing world wide start to ease, confidence will return and things wil improve accordingly.

The MPC (as it's name suggests), is there to deliver monetary policy. For anyone reading this without an Economic background, this basically means controlling inflation by means of interest rates.

So a few rate rises are imminent. The problem is that nobody seems to know why the Baht is so strong at the moment. I know a few hedgers who are speculating on the baht due (again) to inflationary pressures. The difference between here and the UK is that they can lie for years here before they are ousted, in the UK it only takes a few weeks/months.

Ousted, yet another favourite word in Thailand and unrelated to the U.K. system, you,ll be quoting a military coup next

It all depends on how quickly you need to get the cash over to seal the deal, but if I were in your shoes I would delay it for a few months, I am sure you will see the £ strengthen.

Good luck

I,m no expert relating to your expertise but i get your drift on your obvious dislike for the P.M. to the point of being cynical and non constructive.

Yet another basher of the U.K.

I,m pleased you hit the wrong button as i reckon your first post was far more uncomplimentary in your quest to make Gordon Brown the scapegoat for the present situation, which is not just applicable to our shores and in the control of a broader influence.

IMHO of course

marshbags

Edited May 28, 2008 by marshbags

[taxexile]

Gordon Brown has over the years as chancellor proved his credentials regarding his judgement and enhancing the U.K. economy

gordon brown has had very little to do with the economic performance of the uk in recent years , even thailand with no economic management to speak of has boomed.

what he has done though is to spend money way beyond the governments means and introduce raft upon raft of punishing taxes resulting in a home grown economic slowdown , following on from which the uk will be hit that much harder by the worldwide crisis.

as for the pound , most analysts predict parity with the euro before long , only time will tell if they are right or wrong.

investing is just gambling by another name.

[marshbags]

Gordon Brown has over the years as chancellor proved his credentials regarding his judgement and enhancing the U.K. economy

gordon brown has had very little to do with the economic performance of the uk in recent years , even thailand with no economic management to speak of has boomed.

You are welcome to your opinion, but you will find that many in the financial sector would not agree with you.

what he has done though is to spend money way beyond the governments means and introduce raft upon raft of punishing taxes resulting in a home grown economic slowdown , following on from which the uk will be hit that much harder by the worldwide crisis.

And the excuse / reasons why the of the world are having to do like wise is......................

Oil is taking the world into the situations they are in now and the governments are having tothink and rethink on a daily basis as to what the best solutions to it all are.

as for the pound , most analysts predict parity with the euro before long , only time will tell if they are right or wrong.

The euro is highly over valued and eventually it will come down, as seen by other analysts

investing is just gambling by another name.

Not a slight on your post but reflecting my take on what i see, while not using Gordon Brown as the scapegoat to what is a globally concerned issue

This is what debate is about after all.

marshbags

Edited May 29, 2008 by marshbags

[marshbags]

Sorry to put a damper on STG got up early this morning and watched BLOOMBERG. Two economists stated that Sterling £would be on parity with € euro within next 6-12 months

Warren Buffet Says $ Dollar will go down further and stay down.

BRING ON THE €

Telegraph. co. uk. Last Updated: 12:01am BST 30/05/2008

Euro suffering from 'reserve currency curse' as investors pull out

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Long-term private investors are pulling their money out of the eurozone at the fastest rate since the creation of the single currency, according to a report by the French bank BNP Paribas.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in plant and factories has turned deeply negative, reaching minus €149bn (£117bn) over the past year. It dropped to minus €19bn in March alone as the soaring euro pushed labour costs in southern Europe to uncompetitive levels.

The annual exodus of private funds from eurozone equities and bonds has reached almost $280bn. Taken together, the total outflows have topped €400bn in 12 months and may spell trouble for Europe's industry as the economic downturn gathers pace.

Airbus is leading the rush to hollow out production inside the currency bloc, switching operations to the US, Mexico and India. "It really worries me that private accounts are selling assets like this," said Hans Redeker, BNP's currency chief.

More on economics

The euro is being held aloft by central banks in Asia, Russia, and the Middle East seeking an alternative to the dollar as a place to park their mushrooming currency reserves. In effect, the eurozone is now suffering from the reserve currency curse.

While Asian funding has helped ease the credit crisis in Europe, it has also pushed the exchange rate to damaging levels. There is a trade-off effect. The eurozone has gained financial flows, but has lost industrial and investment flows.

advertisementThese official investors appear to be picking and choosing eurozone bonds more carefully than before, demanding a higher premium for Latin debt. Data collected by the Bank of New York Mellon shows large withdrawals from Italy and Greece since August.

The eurozone racked up a record current account deficit of €15.3bn in March, seasonally adjusted. BNP Paribas said the so-called "PIGS" (Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain) are dragging down the trade performance of the bloc.

All have suffered a relentless loss of competitiveness since EMU was launched. The deficits have reached 10pc of GDP in Spain and 14pc in Greece. None has begun to narrow the gap in unit labour costs with Germany, ensuring that the inevitable adjustment will be more severe when it comes.

Indeed, Spain's inflation surged to a record 4.7pc in May. The country now faces the most acute "stagflation crisis" in the developed world. House prices have fallen 15pc nationwide since September, according to the developers' association (APCE). Madrid University warned this week that Spain's property slump could throw 1.1m people out of work.

Mr Redeker said the 'PIGS' quartet was now facing "collapse", with mounting signs of stress in France as well after consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in 20 years. French property sales fell 28pc in the first quarter.

"There are a lot of ugly surprises in store as deleveraging finally hits Europe. Investors are going to stop treating the eurozone as if it were Germany, and take very close look at the deficits of the southern countries. We can expect bond spreads to widen significantly," he said. "We will discover in this downturn whether the eurozone is really an 'optimal currency area'. This is the test."

Jean-Claude Trichet, the president of the European Central Bank, told Italy's Il Sole that the euro had been a shield against the financial storms of the past year. "We've strangely forgotten what happened in the 1980s and 1990s when we all our national currencies created so many problems. Today, we've had an impressive correction in global finances. Imagine what would have happened without the euro," he said.

While i appreciate this is not the pound, the Euro has also had an effect on Sterlings weakening in ref the OP

IMHO as always

marshbags

Edited May 31, 2008 by marshbags

[Ray1167]

GBP / THB today = 65.50

Taxexile - is this still what you call a blip ?? I am referring to your post on 26th May