Thailand Could Face Double-digit Inflation In 2008

[tomuk76]

The over valued English Pound what a joke no wonders people don't buy English products, and they wonder why there economy isn't strong brilliant .

Whats your problem with England? sounds like the sort of a comment a jealous person makes.!

[Seneque]

Put it simply :

The 'financial' world is in a mess .... created by the 'financial' elite

Thailand is just a 'small' chip ... they can't do a thing to control their currency, either way.

[Tawai]

HE is actually a SHE...

A lot of 'em are

and I thought its the other way around....

[Dahee]

http://www.scb.co.th/html/exchange/bk-txtexchange.htm

Siam Commercial Bank exchange rate

[Prakanong]

The over valued English Pound what a joke no wonders people don't buy English products, and they wonder why there economy isn't strong brilliant .

Whats your problem with England? sounds like the sort of a comment a jealous person makes.!

Take no notice - another ex-colonial with a chip on his shoulder as the Canadian economy has never been as strong ans the motherland and his limited professional opportunities sticks in his small minded craw.

To say the British economy has not been one of the strongest around for the last 15+ years shows an ignorance in economics only evidenced by someone whose puny education system has failed him substantially

[helitool]

Thomas Jefferson was concise in his early warning to the American nation, "If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

[nookiebear]

You only have to see the increase in the amount of repossessions going through the Bankok Auction Houses in the last 6 months to see that all is NOT rosey in LOS!!

[Old Man River]

Where will the opportunities be probably in land you got to find that guy who has some extra that he really isn't using about to lose his pickup. Then you can actually deal on price.

Thats one that has been common in this neck of the woods for years.

if Thai were to allow falang to buy land - that would perhaps prevent a property bubble burst and keep the economy rolling....

I know that sounds easy, but then later whoever authorizes this would be known as the person who sold the country out to foreigners and would be ruined.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Where will the opportunities be probably in land you got to find that guy who has some extra that he really isn't using about to lose his pickup. Then you can actually deal on price.

Thats one that has been common in this neck of the woods for years.

if Thai were to allow falang to buy land - that would perhaps prevent a property bubble burst and keep the economy rolling....

I know that sounds easy, but then later whoever authorizes this would be known as the person who sold the country out to foreigners and would be ruined.

It seems that a 99year lease would work for most everyone. Still belongs to LOS, but farang should be comfortable with 99years of use.

[ray23]

Not to confuse things which it would seem I did, farrangs can buy land. But your sweety can. Condo's might be worth looking down line, if they drop in price. Buying a house now if you can find a motivated seller good a time as any. Thai's will never come down a great mythe situation is right they will come down.

Would I personally buy a house right now, if I were walking in new and had to sit up again. I would rent a firnished palce until this plays it way the through

[purushanti]

Suggested solution to all this, subject to your own creative modifications: see "The Plan at www.piquapress.com.

[nihilnisibene]

Is it true that foreigners cannot buy land in Thailand?

[ray23]

Yes

[Old Man River]

Regular bullshit from Miss Tarisa.

Since it sounds like you have all the answers, what do you think the BOT should do to stave off inflation in Thailand?

It's not because I'm able to smell the BOT's crap, that I've got solutions...

Then Miss Tarissa supported the stupid "boost" policy of the gvt, the famous "stimulus packages". That was only 3 months ago (march 2008) !!

Unfortunately, these days the BOT no longer operates independently of the Finance Ministry. They may disagree in private, but not publicly. It's just the way it is.

cclub75, this morning's Bangkok Post has some telling comments by Ammar Siamwalla concerning the BOT's lack of autonomy. It was my main point above concerning your comments on Tarissa's BS. Perhaps coming from Siamwalla you will now better understand. These days, the BOT's role is limited to discussing inflationary issues with the media and making predictions the government agrees with. It has no authority to actually do anything about it.

Your wrath is targeted at the messenger. Aim higher.

[beammeup]

The over valued English Pound what a joke no wonders people don't buy English products, and they wonder why there economy isn't strong brilliant .

Whats your problem with England? sounds like the sort of a comment a jealous person makes.!

Take no notice - another ex-colonial with a chip on his shoulder as the Canadian economy has never been as strong ans the motherland and his limited professional opportunities sticks in his small minded craw.

To say the British economy has not been one of the strongest around for the last 15+ years shows an ignorance in economics only evidenced by someone whose puny education system has failed him substantially

Colonial ah! That old chesnut. Wake up dude its the 21st century. Do you think its sencible to take pot shots at a whole country just because one of its citizens makes a coment you dont like? The education system may be puny but it is superior! The motherland? you wish!!!

[Prakanong]

The over valued English Pound what a joke no wonders people don't buy English products, and they wonder why there economy isn't strong brilliant .

Whats your problem with England? sounds like the sort of a comment a jealous person makes.!

Take no notice - another ex-colonial with a chip on his shoulder as the Canadian economy has never been as strong ans the motherland and his limited professional opportunities sticks in his small minded craw.

To say the British economy has not been one of the strongest around for the last 15+ years shows an ignorance in economics only evidenced by someone whose puny education system has failed him substantially

Colonial ah! That old chesnut. Wake up dude its the 21st century. Do you think its sencible to take pot shots at a whole country just because one of its citizens makes a coment you dont like? The education system may be puny but it is superior! The motherland? you wish!!!

Jai yen yen

[robenroute]

This whole discussion reminds me of what a former student of mine told me in 2004. The person in question was (and probably still is) working at the NESDB (sa-pa-pat) and already then said that the boffins at the bureau saw another bubble ready to burst.

I do believe there are plenty of people in higher places who do have a clue. It's just that they have too much of a clue, compared to Tom, Dick and Harry; they pull stunts because they can get away with it. The Thai, in general, are too opportunistic by nature to take care of a country/people long term. In general, they're not plagued by long-term memory.

Mai pen rai, tomorrow is another day...

[HardenedSoul]

Yuo can bet the dollar will go up. If it does that enough oil will come down.

You what ??!!

I think you need to re-evaluate that viewpoint.

The US dollar is toast. America's just had the largest monthly jump in unemployment from 5% to 5.5%. Investment banks who thought the worst had passed have realised they're gonna have to write down a LOT more bad assets. The two biggest bond insurers MBIA & Ambac are as good as defunct. Home repossessions rose by 48% compared to May last year. Corporate debt is starting to default along with prime mortgages (the good quality loans as opposed to the dross subprime), credit cards, car loans, student loans and credit default swaps, the biggest gorilla in the room - the one they hope they NEVER have to deal with - are starting to creak under the strain. Dealing with these massive troubles is going to require money . . . a lot of it.

The dollar is on a one-way street at the moment and nothing short of a DOUBLING or TRIPLING of US interest rates is going to turn it around. I can't see the Fed doing these things . . . can you ?

[ray23]

Well it's been on a upswing for the past week, oil is down. Do I expect them to double or tripple rates no. I expect to see gradual changes before the end of the year. It didn't go down in one day and won't go up in one day.

So what we need to do is in 2009 take a look. Right now we are both just like economist guessing

[mumbu]

No doubt, inflation is a global problem but at the moment it is very difficult to preserve wealth or just savings. Many people blame the price of oil but the real culprit is the policy of Fed which (starting from Mr Greenspan) cannot stop printing money. This thread is hardly appropriate place for a detailed economic analysis. As was suggested by Mark Faber, mr Bernanke could be a perfect chief of Reserve bank of republic of Zimbabwe but he is hardly appropriate to be the chief of Fed.

It is also very difficult to come up with a good practical advice. May be cash in USD. But do not forget that interest rates in US are below inflation. Thus, if one puts all savings in USD, it is guaranteed that principal will go down in real terms. May be gold. But that is about it.

Forget about stocks, bonds. At the current level of deleveraging it is a sure recipe to loose money. A lot of wealth is going to disappear worldwide due to many years of irresponsible Fed policies...

Thus people who want to spend right now, while the money still have some value may be not that crazy after all...

[midas]

No doubt, inflation is a global problem but at the moment it is very difficult to preserve wealth or just savings. Many people blame the price of oil but the real culprit is the policy of Fed which (starting from Mr Greenspan) cannot stop printing money. This thread is hardly appropriate place for a detailed economic analysis. As was suggested by Mark Faber, mr Bernanke could be a perfect chief of Reserve bank of republic of Zimbabwe but he is hardly appropriate to be the chief of Fed.

It is also very difficult to come up with a good practical advice. May be cash in USD. But do not forget that interest rates in US are below inflation. Thus, if one puts all savings in USD, it is guaranteed that principal will go down in real terms. May be gold. But that is about it.

Forget about stocks, bonds. At the current level of deleveraging it is a sure recipe to loose money. A lot of wealth is going to disappear worldwide due to many years of irresponsible Fed policies...

Thus people who want to spend right now, while the money still have some value may be not that crazy after all...

Yes Marc Faber seems to be one of the few who speak any sense !

And I question Ben Bernanke's independence - I thought the FR Chairman

was supposed to make non political decisions when it is blatantly obvious his decisions

are all about trying to stop the Bush Admin from sinking further

[Charleswehner]

When the politicians are leading the nation into talking down the Baht, the best thing to do is to PANIC.

Joseph Kennedy was the president of an American bank. He invested in shares. Then he heard all the talk about a "bubble", and ANTICIPATED the Wall Street Crash. He panicked first, and got his money out in time.

There followed the great depression. Nobody had any jobs.

However, to be rich it is not sufficient to have money. Others have to be poor. If everybody is rich, they will demand huge sums for their services. This lowers the value of the currency. If you are rich and they are poor, you can stretch out the money, and get huge amounts of service from others.

Joseph Kennedy had made himself into the richest Irish-American.

I recommend to all that you prevail upon your politicians to call off the "poor-mouthing", and the "bubble babble". If they don't listen, you should panic.

Charles Douglas Wehner

[thaigene2]

Regular bullshit from Miss Tarisa.

Like Bernanke, she discovers that there is an inflation problem, that cutting interest rates would be bad, so that it would be good to increase rates...

So do it !

None of these guys here know what to do - including her. The homegrown have no cognitive understanding of anything (speaks volumes about the artificial control over education here doesn't it?). The real concern should be the change in value of the baht. But they have no way to counter it. The same could be said for China actually, excpet the only thing that saves China from getting whacked is their currency control - for now.

[thaigene2]

When the politicians are leading the nation into talking down the Baht, the best thing to do is to PANIC.

Joseph Kennedy was the president of an American bank. He invested in shares. Then he heard all the talk about a "bubble", and ANTICIPATED the Wall Street Crash. He panicked first, and got his money out in time.

There followed the great depression. Nobody had any jobs.

However, to be rich it is not sufficient to have money. Others have to be poor. If everybody is rich, they will demand huge sums for their services. This lowers the value of the currency. If you are rich and they are poor, you can stretch out the money, and get huge amounts of service from others.

Joseph Kennedy had made himself into the richest Irish-American.

I recommend to all that you prevail upon your politicians to call off the "poor-mouthing", and the "bubble babble". If they don't listen, you should panic.

Charles Douglas Wehner

I agree with you actually. The signs are there -it may be time for wire transfer at least.

[OldgitTom]

When the politicians are leading the nation into talking down the Baht, the best thing to do is to PANIC.

Joseph Kennedy was the president of an American bank. He invested in shares. Then he heard all the talk about a "bubble", and ANTICIPATED the Wall Street Crash. He panicked first, and got his money out in time.

There followed the great depression. Nobody had any jobs.

However, to be rich it is not sufficient to have money. Others have to be poor. If everybody is rich, they will demand huge sums for their services. This lowers the value of the currency. If you are rich and they are poor, you can stretch out the money, and get huge amounts of service from others.

Joseph Kennedy had made himself into the richest Irish-American.

I recommend to all that you prevail upon your politicians to call off the "poor-mouthing", and the "bubble babble". If they don't listen, you should panic.

Charles Douglas Wehner

Dear Charles,

Joseph Kennedy was a Mafia bootlegger, a gangster. Kennedy was Irish. Another very successful Mafioso was a Welsh guy called Griffiths. Never heard of him? Quelle surprise!

Joe Kennedy was so successful a gangster, he was able to go legitimate, respectable. In other words, he had earned so much money he was able to join what I call the Aristocratic Mafia - that is a tiny minority of unimaginable wealth & power. These Mafiosi operate from the great banks. They own our world.

They engineered the 1929 Wall Street Crash. Then they bought gilt-edged for pennies in the dollar. To realize the potential of those assets in the resulting Great Depression, they financed Adolf Hitler & WWII. Result, a BOOM in the strategic industries they had bought.

Fantastic nonsense? Ah, so most people believe. That is why the magnificently malignant minority gets away with it, time & time again.

Please folks, stop blaming the little sharks of Thailand, the Bangkok Bandits. There are much bigger fish out there waiting to snap them up.

George Bush II & the Aristocratic Mafia use robbery with violence to steal the oil of Iraq. They then engineer the oil panic to push prices thru the roof. The Aristocratic Mafia owns the mass media. As long as you schmucks swallow their fairy stories about economics & politics, the big cruising sharks continue to get away with mass murder & extortion. Old git Tom

[thaigene2]

When the politicians are leading the nation into talking down the Baht, the best thing to do is to PANIC.

Joseph Kennedy was the president of an American bank. He invested in shares. Then he heard all the talk about a "bubble", and ANTICIPATED the Wall Street Crash. He panicked first, and got his money out in time.

There followed the great depression. Nobody had any jobs.

However, to be rich it is not sufficient to have money. Others have to be poor. If everybody is rich, they will demand huge sums for their services. This lowers the value of the currency. If you are rich and they are poor, you can stretch out the money, and get huge amounts of service from others.

Joseph Kennedy had made himself into the richest Irish-American.

I recommend to all that you prevail upon your politicians to call off the "poor-mouthing", and the "bubble babble". If they don't listen, you should panic.

Charles Douglas Wehner

Dear Charles,

Joseph Kennedy was a Mafia bootlegger, a gangster. Kennedy was Irish. Another very successful Mafioso was a Welsh guy called Griffiths. Never heard of him? Quelle surprise!

Joe Kennedy was so successful a gangster, he was able to go legitimate, respectable. In other words, he had earned so much money he was able to join what I call the Aristocratic Mafia - that is a tiny minority of unimaginable wealth & power. These Mafiosi operate from the great banks. They own our world.

They engineered the 1929 Wall Street Crash. Then they bought gilt-edged for pennies in the dollar. To realize the potential of those assets in the resulting Great Depression, they financed Adolf Hitler & WWII. Result, a BOOM in the strategic industries they had bought.

Fantastic nonsense? Ah, so most people believe. That is why the magnificently malignant minority gets away with it, time & time again.

Please folks, stop blaming the little sharks of Thailand, the Bangkok Bandits. There are much bigger fish out there waiting to snap them up.

George Bush II & the Aristocratic Mafia use robbery with violence to steal the oil of Iraq. They then engineer the oil panic to push prices thru the roof. The Aristocratic Mafia owns the mass media. As long as you schmucks swallow their fairy stories about economics & politics, the big cruising sharks continue to get away with mass murder & extortion. Old git Tom

What about America's constant support for Israel? Regardless of Bush/Obama - Any mafia involed there? Just wondering..

[LaoPo]

Inflation dangers 'threaten Asia'

The threat of high inflation remains a major worry for Asia, and could undo the progress made in the past 20 years, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) says.

ADB managing director Rajat M Nag said inflation in 2008 would exceed the 5.1% annual figure predicted in April.

Rising fuel and food prices were the chief dangers behind inflation that affected Asia "good growth story".

Rising inflation could also hit investment and corporate earnings, and destabilise governments in the region.

"In Asia, roughly about a billion people are vulnerable to the food and fuel price increases" Rajat M Nag, Asian Development Bank

On Friday India said its inflation had risen at its fastest rate in seven years. And earlier in June South Korea said its inflation had hit a seven-year high as a result of rising energy and food costs.

In Vietnam inflation is more than 25% and the government has said the issue is the biggest challenge it faces.

Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines and Indonesia are facing inflation rates of between 7.5% and 11%.

'Regressive' taxation

The ADB has forecast 7.6% growth for the region in 2008, down from 8.7% in 2007, which was the highest in two decades.

Mr Nag said Asian monetary and fiscal authorities should "recognise inflation as a very major concern" and indicated that raising interest rates could be one solution.

Inflation "can endanger growth in Asia," he said, adding that "central banks should take all steps, including looking at rates as what India has done quite appropriately."

On Wednesday India's central bank raised a key short-term borrowing rate by a quarter percentage point to 8.0%.

Rising food prices have been spurred by rising fuel costs that have increased production and transport costs.

Loans offered

Asian nations such as India, Malaysia and Indonesia recently cut fuel subsidies in the face of rising world oil prices, which may send inflation even higher.

"Inflation is the most regressive form of taxation and it hits the poor most. In Asia, roughly about a billion people are vulnerable to the food and fuel price increases," Mr Nag said.

He said governments had to ensure "targeted cash support" for the poor to protect them from the price increases, he said.

Asia is home to two-thirds of the world's poor. It cut its poverty rate to about 19% from 33% in 1990, but Mr Nag said this improvement was under threat because of inflation.

In April the Asian Development Bank offered to support countries dealing with the effects of rising food prices.

It said loans could be made available to countries so that they can subsidise the price of staples to help the poor.

---BBC NEWS Business

LaoPo

[ray23]

Ok not a statement a question.

If I understand correctly fule and food are not a part of the formula for the rate of inflation, If that is true. are we not already in double digit inflation? Since these aspects are not something the world is not going to function without.

Why the concern on the value of the baht. All I have heard is the baht is coupled to a basket of currencies, have thier currencies not moved at approximatley the same rate as the baht?

The Dung seems to be the ony one out there at the moment that is really facing a big problem.

Watching the news is can be very revealing about how much control the media really has. The G-8 this weekend siad nothing about the dollar offically. They siad over the weekend that because the Central bankers were not attending thier meeting. It was thier polciy not to discuss such matters, without them present. So what do you see today G-8 didn't come out with a policy fo a strong dollar. No mention of why.

What was that motto if it doesn't bleed it doesn't sell.

The Fed and Paulson don't disagree with anything, if they wanted a strong dollar should have reacted a few years back. But we are now at a pint where they are not the only problem spear head yes.

Interesting thought the money Mafia, could be a lot of truth in that. Someone pushed the Sub prime, more then likely got thier money out before there was any pain. But natural greed of individual helped them to do it. Today it's food and energy, so whoever is the money Mafia are they are what to watch when they pull out it's time to make changes.

There are things that are very abnormal at the moment, at one point the dollar increased and so did oil, not the norm. When did we see it adust as it normally does, when they started investigating speculation in the commodity market.

Yes some poeple got very rich in WW11, korea, Vietnam and now Irag.

You know I complain about fuel costs all the time but the reality is that when I came here the government was subsidizing fuel. When they stopped the prices went up. Problem is now they have went up globally, so if oil s is attacged to a prioduct in anyway, the only answer is it has to go up or close it's doors. No one can operate a normal busines as a nonprofit entity.

The catch 22 that we are seeing is governmetns are being pushed to lower these costs wih no method of lowering the true cost. Rice well a household needs more then just rice, so we raise the price so they can buy some sort of protien as well. As well as the product thay have to buy to produce the rice all the way down the line. Public transportation and frieght ahuling can't operate at losses, so we arrange lower fuel for them an increase fares. Yes it provides breathing room. But in the end it is feeding inflation.

Meantime the guy working at building houses in Issan is still making his 180 Baht a day for a twelve hour day. That is the end consumer, any surprise that his confidence is falling.

But no one in thier right mind woudl listen to me. The only thing I have been right about was that America slows and the rest of world will to. In my life time six decades I have seen feast and Famon. I think that is just the way of life, good times and bad times. Things will change, we had just gotten used to being fat and sassy.

Remember I retain the right to be wrong.

And not to spell or type correctly, leave words out because my brain works much faster then my fingers

[ray23]

Could be we will see interest rates rising here before the Fed gets around to doing more then talking, no real surprise there.

"Thai Central Bank plays economy impact over inflation

By The Nation, Dow Jones

The Bank of Thailand is ready to take monetary policy action to tackle high inflation and doesn't believe a rate hike will hurt economic growth much, the central bank's governor Tarisa Watanagase said Monday.

Tarisa

The comments will reinforce market expectations of an interest rate hike in the near future but Tarisa ruled out calling an early meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee.

The next meeting is scheduled on July 16.

Any increase in the policy interest rate is unlikely to have a significant impact on spending or economic growth, Tarisa told reporters in a press conference.

"Our real interest rate is negative, therefore if there is any hike in the policy interest rate, any affect on spending and economic growth won't be much," said Tarisa.

Central bank said last week the said inflation could reach a double-digit level this year, creating worries among market participants that the bank would announce a surprise inter-meeting rate increase.

Inflation hit a decade high of 7.6% in May as record oil prices fed broad-based price increases.

Thailand's benchmark interest rate has been unchanged at a growth-accommodative 3.25% since August last year to support an economy battered by the political troubles that culminated in the ouster of Thaksin Shinawatra as prime minister in a September 2006 coup.

The governor downplayed the chances of double-digit inflation this year. "It is possible that inflation may hit double digits in certain months but the chance is rather slim," she said.

Membership of the MPC will change by the end of August as part of the committee's regular renewal and the new MPC will look at whether the central bank should target headline inflation and whether to change the inflation target, Tarisa said."

[mumbu]

I would like to comment here about the idea that commodity speculators hurt the prices. Senator Liberman come up with a "brilliant" idea to ban big financial institutions from future commodity trading.

I have not seen the details of his proposal but if it leads to ban on commodity ETF this will hurt individual investors quite badly. People invest in commodities to hedge the inflation. If one bans corresponding ETFs,

then the only real way to hedge for small investors will be to buy physical gold or silver. For American investors it will probably mean keeping physical gold in private vaults outside the country taking into account US history (FDR in thirties made illegal for Americans to own physical gold except for jewelries and collectible coins). One can easily predict that the price of gold will sky rocket if senator Liberman prevail.

From general economic viewpoint the proposed ban makes no sense. Big financial institutions buy ,say, future contracts on oil but they do not consume it. In other words, they eventually sell them. In middle fifties Milton Friedman argued in favor of currency free exchange rates determined by markets and showed that the role of speculators is essentially to smooth out exchange rates. Much of his arguments can be carried over to other types of trades including commodities. The price of commodities is essentially determined by supply and demand and the only real effect speculators may have is to make the disbalances visible and acute right now rather than 5 years later. In other words, they essentially encourage governments into thinking about alternative forms of energy supply sooner rather than later.

You would not see senator Liberman (or any other politician for that matter) arguing against Bernanke throwing freshly printed money from helicopter cause it is much easier to blame speculators for everything negative.