So: When Will -farang- Tourism To Thailand Come To A Halt ?

[britmaveric]

Tourism will increase according to TAT - however like always their figures are dubious.

[LaoPo]

Tourism will increase according to TAT - however like always their figures are dubious.

TAT has to be optimistic....if not, the bosses will be fired and another bunch of bosses will take their seats...being optimistic

It's tough on the top

LaoPo

[Ulysses G.]

I guarantee you'll see it in the next 8-10 weeks!!! No Joke!!

In Chiang Mai, we usually get a surge of tourists in July and the first half of August. My business has jumped quite a bit the last few weeks and all of my friends say the same. I'd say that was a very encouraging sign!

[NoSpeakIt]

the thai government makes it so easy for farang and asian farang to stay here. if there is a change, i think it will be intentional.

[Priceless]

My figures are from TAT (same as yours): http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_download.php?Rpt=cre

Your figure of + 0.49% is correct; however if you deduct LAOS (+84.62%) en MYANMAR (+ 12.12%) you will have a sharp decline from the major incoming East Asian TOURIST countries. The numbers, coming from Laos & Myanmar, are for a great part visa-runners or returning tourists coming back from a tour.

The sharp decline -which exists !- comes from countries like Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Korea, Japan, Singapore, Philippines, Malaysia and Cambodia; all those countries declined.

South Asia and Middle East increased indeed, like Russia but those areas do NOT account for larger numbers of tourism.

I am looking into the larger and broader picture what's happening in the (tourism) world and therefore also Thailand.

And that Sir, is worrying.

If one would take the time and effort to look into the percentages of the past 8 years, those percentages are not very promising for Thailand's tourism....

OK, here is is:

2000 9,5 Mllion* + 10.7% versus 1999 (* I'm leaving the numbers out after the comma)

2001 10.1 Million + 5.78%

2002 10,8 Million + 7.31%

2003 10,0 Million - 7,27%

2004 11.7 Million + 16.42% december 26 - 2004; Tsunami

2005 11.5 Million - 1.45%

2006 13.8 Million +20.01%

2007 14.4 Million + 4.65

2008 PREDICTION: 17.5 to 17.8 Million

The effects of worldwide bear markets, declining economy, rising inflation and rising fuel prices will not -yet- be felt in the total TAT figures/numbers for 2008 but I repeat what I said in my OP: when will -farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?

Of course there will be tourists coming to Thailand but the growth in tourism will come to a halt and nobody can stop it.

I think Thailand should be very happy if tourism in 2008 could reach 13.5 - 14,5 million and 11-12 Million in 2009.

LaoPo

I'm very sorry if you perceived my reply as an attack, which it was not intended to be. I was just curious where your information came from, as it contradicted the TAT official figures. Now I understand that when you said "Asia" you in fact meant "East Asia, excluding Laos and Myanmar". When you said "When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?" you in fact meant "When will the increase in world-wide arrivals come to a halt?".

One could also argue about your definition of a "sharp decline" above. In fact the arrivals from your chosen area (East Asia excl. Laos and Myanmar) have declined from 7,592,850 in 2006 to 7,384,960 in 2007, i.e. by 207,890, which is a decrease by 2.7%. Certainly a decline, but in my opinion not as hair-raising as you seem to make it out. It might be worth noting that in the same period, e.g. arrivals from Europe (not excluding any countries) increased by 367,975.

As pointed out by another poster, it is to an extent within the "job description" for TAT to be optimistic. It should also be noted that they have recently adjusted their forecast down to ~15 million arrivals this year.

As I am not in the tourist industry, I am in no way qualified to have an opinion about your forecast for foreign arrivals in 2008 and 2009.

It might however be a good idea to make your future posts go along better with the subject line, and to be somewhat clearer as to what you're talking about when you quoting statistics

/ Priceless

[bob6023]

Cheap sex = falangs. Eight years ago I started coming here, three times a year, now married in the country, but it was cheap then. I don't think I would bother coming this far with prices the way they are . There are cheaper places in So America.

[Pattaya46]

Cheap sex = falangs. // I don't think I would bother coming this far with prices the way they are . There are cheaper places in So America.

Hi. I do not know prices from "before", but now in Pattaya one beer is less than 1 € and sex is ... let say the price of a few beer, then very cheap. Too cheap... As long as it will be so cheap you will have lot of farangs here, even if they are only a very small number compared to number of "real" tourists in Thailand.

Which place are you talking about in South America ? Difficult to imagine cheaper...

[WinnieTheKhwai]

...also difficult to imagine safer, more easy going, value for money, etc. And face it, South America is only closer by for North Americans.. Americans are not the mainstay of Thai tourism anyway.

[Bizz]

Still looking for recent report I read about Asia tourist no will be down 20-30 % in 2009-2010.

lots of Hotels Resorts for sale lately. Way more than last year.

[LaoPo]

I'm very sorry if you perceived my reply as an attack, which it was not intended to be. I was just curious where your information came from, as it contradicted the TAT official figures. Now I understand that when you said "Asia" you in fact meant "East Asia, excluding Laos and Myanmar". When you said "When will -Farang- tourism to Thailand come to a halt ?" you in fact meant "When will the increase in world-wide arrivals come to a halt?".

One could also argue about your definition of a "sharp decline" above. In fact the arrivals from your chosen area (East Asia excl. Laos and Myanmar) have declined from 7,592,850 in 2006 to 7,384,960 in 2007, i.e. by 207,890, which is a decrease by 2.7%. Certainly a decline, but in my opinion not as hair-raising as you seem to make it out. It might be worth noting that in the same period, e.g. arrivals from Europe (not excluding any countries) increased by 367,975.

As pointed out by another poster, it is to an extent within the "job description" for TAT to be optimistic. It should also be noted that they have recently adjusted their forecast down to ~15 million arrivals this year.

As I am not in the tourist industry, I am in no way qualified to have an opinion about your forecast for foreign arrivals in 2008 and 2009.

It might however be a good idea to make your future posts go along better with the subject line, and to be somewhat clearer as to what you're talking about when you quoting statistics

/ Priceless

Interesting discussion, and I didn't take your post as an attack.

As I said before, I'm looking to the larger picture regarding inbound Thai tourism and the figures are, at least, odd.

If you look into the percentages from 2000 - 2008 you see that the average growth in % is +7% and thats including a decline because of the Tsunami with a low -1,45%.

+7% is an acceptable % I would say, but why on earth are these plus and minus percentages so odd ?

Look at this again if you wish ( I added the numbers from the years '97, 98 and 1999):

1997 7,3 Million*

1998 7,8 Million + 7,52% versus 1997

1999 8,7 Million + 10,31%

2000 9,5 Mllion* + 10.7%

2001 10.1 Million + 5.78%

2002 10,8 Million + 7.31%

2003 10,0 Million - 7,27%

2004 11.7 Million + 16.42% December 26 - 2004; Tsunami

2005 11.5 Million - 1.45%

2006 13.8 Million +20.01%

2007 14.4 Million + 4.65 %

* I'm leaving the numbers out after the comma or adjust a little up or down

WHY is there such a sharp decline in growth in 2007 (+4.65%) after a tremendous growth in 2004 (+16.42%) and 2006 (+20.01%) ? You tell me.

But, to be fair, it's quite an achievement that Thailand almost doubled from 7,3 Million tourists in 1997 to 14,4 Million in 2007; we shouldn't forget however that there's also a substantial number of expats/tourists who are counted 2x, 3x or more times coming into Thailand because of visa-running and tours.

It's hard to determine the percentage.

Apart from the above, I asked the OP's question indeed when -Farang- tourism would come to a halt. A halt means a stop.

Also, there is more info about western tourism to Thailand rather than from East & South Asian countries other than from the TAT.

It would be most interesting to learn about inbound tourism from the first 6 months of 2008...

LaoPo

[TheDon]

nearly everyone I know, including females who have been to Thailand want to go back again. I swear there is just something about the place that draws people. I have been there 5 times and planning on living there from next year. And no I have never picked up any other Thai girl apart from my wife who I was with before I have ever been to Thailand

[cynthialee]

its a 24 hour cocktail party that never end. all the while being a very safe place,

[Ulysses G.]

There are cheaper places in So America.

There are cheaper places in the USA if you don't care about what the girl looks like or how friendly and pleasurable they make the experience or how safe you are when you are doing it.

THOSE are the things that bring men all the way to Thailand, and no where else even comes close!

[TheDon]

man Brazil you can find really cheap ones. But there usually the ones that cant go for much money anyways and you would think your getting ripped off if you got it for free

[LaoPo]

man Brazil you can find really cheap ones. But there usually the ones that cant go for much money anyways and you would think your getting ripped off if you got it for free

Shall we stay on topic, please ? So: When Will -farang- Tourism To Thailand Come To A Halt ?

Thanks.

LaoPo

[Priceless]

Interesting discussion, and I didn't take your post as an attack.

As I said before, I'm looking to the larger picture regarding inbound Thai tourism and the figures are, at least, odd.

If you look into the percentages from 2000 - 2008 you see that the average growth in % is +7% and thats including a decline because of the Tsunami with a low -1,45%.

+7% is an acceptable % I would say, but why on earth are these plus and minus percentages so odd ?

Look at this again if you wish ( I added the numbers from the years '97, 98 and 1999):

1997 7,3 Million*

1998 7,8 Million + 7,52% versus 1997

1999 8,7 Million + 10,31%

2000 9,5 Mllion* + 10.7%

2001 10.1 Million + 5.78%

2002 10,8 Million + 7.31%

2003 10,0 Million - 7,27%

2004 11.7 Million + 16.42% December 26 - 2004; Tsunami

2005 11.5 Million - 1.45%

2006 13.8 Million +20.01%

2007 14.4 Million + 4.65 %

* I'm leaving the numbers out after the comma or adjust a little up or down

WHY is there such a sharp decline in growth in 2007 (+4.65%) after a tremendous growth in 2004 (+16.42%) and 2006 (+20.01%) ? You tell me.

But, to be fair, it's quite an achievement that Thailand almost doubled from 7,3 Million tourists in 1997 to 14,4 Million in 2007; we shouldn't forget however that there's also a substantial number of expats/tourists who are counted 2x, 3x or more times coming into Thailand because of visa-running and tours.

It's hard to determine the percentage.

Apart from the above, I asked the OP's question indeed when -Farang- tourism would come to a halt. A halt means a stop.

Also, there is more info about western tourism to Thailand rather than from East & South Asian countries other than from the TAT.

It would be most interesting to learn about inbound tourism from the first 6 months of 2008...

LaoPo

This is indeed an interesting discussion. Although I am not, and never have been, in the tourist business I have been a numbers man all my life. Consequently I'll try to come up with a hypothesis to answer your question. First a look at a graph of the total int'l arrivals to Thailand 1997-2008 (2008 according to TAT's latest revised forecast):

A quite remarkably straight line, with two exceptions: 2003 and 2005. My guess is a/ the Iraq War and b/ the Tsunami!

A look at a graph of the yearly change in arrivals seems to confirm that guess, and add an extra twist:

It appears that the "natural growth rate" is an increase of about 700,000 arrivals/year. When something extraordinary happens that decreases the growth rate, or even gives negative growth, the following year will recover the "lost" growth + add its own 700,000 arrivals. In other words, the extreme growth rates during 2004 and 2006 are actually compensations for the respective preceding years decreases. It seems that TAT could possibly simplify its forecasting work by just adding 700,000 arrivals to the preceding year's total

An absolutely fascinating question is of course what made TAT think that the previous 10 years' extremely steady trend would suddenly more than treble this year

The revised forecast of 15 million, which would mean a growth of 600,000 arrivals, is slightly below the 10-year trend. This seems reasonable, considering the prevailing economic climate. What will happen beyond this year appears very difficult to tell. That arrivals from North America will decrease seems fairly certain, but it appears the jury is still out on the economic effects of the sub-prime and oil crises on the rest of the world.

One would however guess that the investors that have put millions and billions into creating new capacity, e.g. hotels and resorts, will have to wait quite a while for any return on those investments

/ Priceless

Edited July 7, 2008 by Priceless

[medoraman]

I think most agree never a halt. I have friends with businesses both large and small in Thailand, and I hear business is down for any tourist related industry. Businesses for Thai's seem fine, but maybe the new tourists do not spend as much as traditional farang tourists.

I just have to think that foreign arrivals from North America first, and later Europe, will have to decrease. Like I said in an earlier posting, airline tickets do not show fuel charges for 6 months to a year after a price increase. In very simple economic terms, every ticket surcharge simply has to reduce demand. Is is going to stop some sex perv from making his Pattaya run? No, but it might dissuade retirees or middle class families from coming, both from US AND Europe. Also, not just US, but many parts of the world had a house pricing bubble that has ended. This is very important psychologically, as they do not feel as wealthy now, and will cut back on luxuries, like overseas travel everywhere, Thailand included.

If Thailand can maintain foreign arrivals at 2007 levels for the next two or three years, they will be very lucky. After that, the world should adjust and arrivals will go back up.

[ourmanflint]

More grist!!!

Jul 5, 2008

Phuket's tsunami-stricken coastline is bouncing back

By SHARON WROBEL

PHUKET, Thailand

Rising oil costs, a shortage of rice and higher food prices have resulted in fewer tourists traveling to Thailand as the once-so-attractive destination loses its much-touted "value-for-money" selling point.

From the beginning of the year, the number of Israeli tourists traveling to Thailand has dropped by about 20 percent as a result of higher costs - flights, hotels, food and entertainment.

According to Thailand's Tourism Authority, 120,661 Israelis visited the country in 2007. This is, however, significantly more than the number in 2003, when only 62,463 Israelis traveled to Thailand.

[LaoPo]

More grist!!!

Jul 5, 2008

Phuket's tsunami-stricken coastline is bouncing back

By SHARON WROBEL

PHUKET, Thailand

Rising oil costs, a shortage of rice and higher food prices have resulted in fewer tourists traveling to Thailand as the once-so-attractive destination loses its much-touted "value-for-money" selling point.

From the beginning of the year, the number of Israeli tourists traveling to Thailand has dropped by about 20 percent as a result of higher costs - flights, hotels, food and entertainment.

According to Thailand's Tourism Authority, 120,661 Israelis visited the country in 2007. This is, however, significantly more than the number in 2003, when only 62,463 Israelis traveled to Thailand.

What a strange way to compare inbound tourism....compare 2007 with 2003...

2007 had 4,56% more Israeli tourists than 2006; 123.012 versus 117.649.

If there is a drop of -20% (is that for the first half of 2008 ?) it's quite a bit with the 2nd half of 2008 still ahead.

LaoPo

[lardy]

man Brazil you can find really cheap ones. But there usually the ones that cant go for much money anyways and you would think your getting ripped off if you got it for free

Shall we stay on topic, please ? So: When Will -farang- Tourism To Thailand Come To A Halt ?

Thanks.

LaoPo

if oil prices get ridiculous and airfares go the same way there will be a huge effect, i am already cutting down from 3-4 trips per year to 2

[WinnieTheKhwai]

In very simple economic terms, every ticket surcharge simply has to reduce demand. Is is going to stop some sex perv from making his Pattaya run? No, but it might dissuade retirees or middle class families from coming, both from US AND Europe.

I think it's almost hartwarming to see that the two mainstays of Thai tourism, the ones that established it and allowed it to grow will once again be the most prominent. (Sex tourism and backpacker travellers)

[Priceless]

More grist!!!

Jul 5, 2008

Phuket's tsunami-stricken coastline is bouncing back

By SHARON WROBEL

PHUKET, Thailand

Rising oil costs, a shortage of rice and higher food prices have resulted in fewer tourists traveling to Thailand as the once-so-attractive destination loses its much-touted "value-for-money" selling point.

From the beginning of the year, the number of Israeli tourists traveling to Thailand has dropped by about 20 percent as a result of higher costs - flights, hotels, food and entertainment.

According to Thailand's Tourism Authority, 120,661 Israelis visited the country in 2007. This is, however, significantly more than the number in 2003, when only 62,463 Israelis traveled to Thailand.

What a strange way to compare inbound tourism....compare 2007 with 2003...

2007 had 4,56% more Israeli tourists than 2006; 123.012 versus 117.649.

If there is a drop of -20% (is that for the first half of 2008 ?) it's quite a bit with the 2nd half of 2008 still ahead.

LaoPo

Indeed, very strange but rather common here in Thailand It often seems that as long as the numbers are very exact, it doesn't matter very much whether they're relevant or tell you anything of interest.

I've met the same thing while working in China. At the time I thought it was a remnant of communist economics, but now I'm beginning to think it's an Asian thing. They seem obsessed with numbers as such, just think of all the "lucky numbers" for lotteries. (My g/f insisted that we should spend 3,000 baht to get a "lucky number" on our licence plates )

/ Priceless

[t.s]

Thanks to grantbkk for an excellent, long post in which the punch line was,

"However, once they venture out into the Land of Smiles and are confronted by the realities of broken sewer and transportation systems they may begin to regret their vacation choice. They will pass on their close calls of traffic accidents and random acts of violence they witness to the next batch of potential travelers. If things don’t improve dramatically, Thailand may eventually become known as “Burma with Electricity”.

for those of us that cant read on our own, thanks

[bkkjames]

What I would really like to get is some input from hoteliers on the situation as they see it. Granted its low season right now but it seems awfully quiet here in Bangkok. Be nice to have some year on year stats from those directly on the ground.

TAT numbers IMO are not accurate by any means. They count everyone that goes to a border for a stamp and then back in as a tourist arrival.

It wouldnt surprise me if they count Thais (or expats living here) returning from overseas trips in their arrival figures as well.

[LaoPo]

What I would really like to get is some input from hoteliers on the situation as they see it. Granted its low season right now but it seems awfully quiet here in Bangkok. Be nice to have some year on year stats from those directly on the ground.

TAT numbers IMO are not accurate by any means. They count everyone that goes to a border for a stamp and then back in as a tourist arrival.

It wouldnt surprise me if they count Thais (or expats living here) returning from overseas trips in their arrival figures as well.

About your last sentence: I don't think so because TAT has separate statistics for domestic Thai tourism:

http://www2.tat.or.th/stat/web/static_tst.php

LaoPo

[Narachon]

So: When Will -farang- Tourism To Thailand Come To A Halt ?

LaoPo

Farang Tourism to Thailand will come to a Halt only when there are no more "Farangs"....

( And by Farangs I mean all Westerners in general, not just the White-Western European-looking folks.... )

[meom]

if oil prices get ridiculous and airfares go the same way there will be a huge effect, i am already cutting down from 3-4 trips per year to 2

Maybe. On the other hand with increased oil prices will come increased heating bills and for some people it might be cheaper to spend the winter months in Thailand instead of in their own country.

[scotwumman]

Seriously thinking about that one meom remains to be seen though if this concept also will not be offset by higher airfares both in the u.k. wintertimes and internal flights

[jumnien]

Many around here are converting visas to one-year retirement visas from tourist visas as it is too expensive to keep going back and forth or to live in their home country.

[feffejonsson]

It´s strange. Thailand´s tourism seems to survive everything.

First the countrywas hit by SARS. Nothing happened.

Then the Tsunami. Nothing happened.

Finally H5N1 avian flu. Nothing happened.