Bangkok Bank expects Thai baht to weaken to 34-35

CURRENCY 34-35 range likely for baht this year

BANGKOK: -- The baht should weaken to between 34 and 35 to the US dollar as oil prices are likely to remain between $130 and $150 per barrel, according to Bangkok Bank economists.

Sa-ard Theerarojanawong, a BBL executive vice-president, said the baht was likely to gradually weaken over the next few months as rising oil prices put pressure on the trade and current accounts.

''If oil prices rise beyond $150 per barrel, then the baht trend will be quite unpredictable,'' he said.

Rising oil prices and currency volatility have resulted in capital flows shifting from emerging markets to developed countries, Mr Sa-ard added.

The baht ended last week at 33.40 to the dollar, down 2.2% from the beginning of the month. Oil prices traded at around $135 per barrel in New York, up nearly $5 from earlier in the week on political tensions in the Middle East and higher demand from China.

Dr Nimit Nontapunthawat, a Bangkok Bank economic adviser, said the baht was unlikely to decline beyond 35 to the dollar. The Bank of Thailand would likely continue to intervene to guard against further declines, he said.

A weaker baht would raise the cost of imports, including oil, and add to domestic inflation. Dr Nimit said economic growth was unlikely to exceed 5% this year as a result of higher oil prices.

-- Bangkok Post 2008-06-23

I guess inflation here will balance it out. My negativity is a symptom of P (laa-ou) TD.

Onward and upward to 40!!!!!

Woo hoo!

Woo hoo!

As a now exporter, this news isn't too bad; however some of my imports are in USD; might have to think about this

I should prepare both hands ....on the one hand...on the other hand ;-)

good for me, my salary is in USD.

The Baht will weaken to 40, oil will fall to the low 100's if not below. The two are not as closely correlated as the article surmises. The real issue is the housing market in the US and the high price of oil effecting our economy. As the US economy strengthens and Thailand's stays the same the Baht will return to 40.

good for me, my salary is in USD.

Watch out... it's relative...

The USD could fall... too.

We can notice that the idea of a Super Bernanke Suddenly Very Upset Against Inflation and Willing to Boost the USD... sold to the world last week (media hysteria), starts to deflate very quickly, like an air balloon.

Bad news keep coming, at high flow rate and on many fronts (banks, real estate etc.) , leading people to wonder... A big hike of FED rates soon ? Christmas + Alice in Wonderland + Wizard of Oz !

Edited June 23, 200818 yr by cclub75

Woo hoo!

As a now exporter, this news isn't too bad; however some of my imports are in USD; might have to think about this

I should prepare both hands ....on the one hand...on the other hand ;-)

I really just cheer out of habit nowadays, as I'm fairly diversified, earning interest USD, Yen, Euros, NZ$, AU$, and of course Baht.

My biggest concern is my own personal health. I totally understand how Howard Hughes must have felt... though not nearly at his level of wealth, but at a level of relative comfort where the only thing I want is to prolong this comfortable life as long as possible. If you've got your health, you've got everything. Once you've got everything, you really start to think about your health. ...and then there is of course concerns about nuclear war and asteroids.

Once you've got everything, you really start to think about your health. ...and then there is of course concerns about nuclear war and asteroids.

Nuclear war would be terrible but, my pal tells me that Preparation H works well on asteroids

Not the planet killer sized ones.

Good for some, bad for others. Just as was the same when it got stronger.

Come to think of it, I bought the new motorcycle on 16/5/2008 with baht, not by converting dollars, so that's fine. I would love to see 35 by the First of July.

The USD:THB trade is currently at it's level of greatest resistance. Should it break up through here there is no more significant resistance until the high 37's low 38's. I have no idea if that is where it will go however.

The Baht will weaken to 40, oil will fall to the low 100's if not below. The two are not as closely correlated as the article surmises. The real issue is the housing market in the US and the high price of oil effecting our economy. As the US economy strengthens and Thailand's stays the same the Baht will return to 40.

Crikey, thats quite a prediction. Hope yr right anyway!