Thailand Live Wednesday 9 October 2024

[churchill]

I have just sold out of Gold and General Fund ( moving fund managers ) , after having a good run am wondering whether to reinvest in gold mining shares , to hold cash for a while or to invest with Man AHL Hedge Fund , who do quite well in volatile markets . Any views or suggestions ?

[MatthewM]

There are many funds available that are still performing very well even in the current financial climate.

If you have cashed out a lump sum, then one alternative is to hold the money in cash and then invest into a fund monthly for the time being. By doing this you would iron out any fluctuations in the market during these times. i.e when stocks fall you get more units for your money so when the stocks rise again your better off.

I think that you are right to also consider a hedge fund at this time, but you should make sure you have the option to switch out of it once markets start returning to some sort of normality and better options may then be available.

The main thing is to take some proffesional advice from somebody that you trust before commiting to anything and always take time to think things over and look at the implications before signing any contracts.

[samran]

coal miners - especially Indonesian ones. Banpu and ITMG come to mind. Supply blockages out of Australia are real, and indonesian miners are going to benefit from this.

[blazin]

Chinese Solar...my favourites are LDK,SOL & TSL

[Lost in LOS]

if you believe [which I do] that the US or Israel is going to bomb Iran then get some more gold.

[pampal]

if you believe [which I do] that the US or Israel is going to bomb Iran then get some more gold.

If you believe that, then oil is what you should be looking at, because it will jump to stratospheric levels.

[Jimjim]

if you believe [which I do] that the US or Israel is going to bomb Iran then get some more gold.

Yes, sending the world into utter chaos and anarchy makes perfect sense.

[VegasVic]

if you believe [which I do] that the US or Israel is going to bomb Iran then get some more gold.

If you believe that, then oil is what you should be looking at, because it will jump to stratospheric levels.

Or invest in a company that builds fallout shelters or sells canned goods, or is it buy a fallout shelter and canned goods I'm just not very good at theses doomsday scenarios (where is Bingo when you need him?), but one thing that I am quite certain of is that canned goods can be eaten for many years while gold can't be eaten at all, as a matter of fact I believe gold is classified as a heavy metal and quite dangerous to try and consume.

[Naam]

here's my shopping list of investments into which i will convert my cash. time frame = next 12 months

[cloudhopper]

So Naam, if the best place to invest cash is in - cash, where's the best place to keep it and in what form do you reckon?

[Naam]

So Naam, if the best place to invest cash is in - cash, where's the best place to keep it and in what form do you reckon?

i have of course still assets (bonds) which are not cash Cloudhopper. but whatever proceeds i receive are added to my existing cash all of which i keep on overnight or weekly rates enabling me to switch currencies within a few minutes (which i don't do very often) if need be. present status of cash is (all percentages approximately) €UR 50%, AUD 10%, TRY 12%, NZD 7%, NOK 4%, INR 4%, BRL 10%, THB 3%. i a, looking for more diversification (e.g. CNY, IDR, PHP) but that's quite difficult to arrange.

[ray08]

Best place for Cash is Cash ,

Shares , still no direction but more bearish than bullish

Commodites are very dangerous as there are very few fundamentals in play , everyone pushing prices up with little increase in real demand ,

Almost like the Dotcom Boom , something has to give in the end

Property , this is where eventually the cash will go , Bricks and mortars , everyone needs a roof

[lannarebirth]

My favorite place to put cash to work is hard money lending. I am not doing it at present, but have done it in the past. It's a tough go right now because there are just too many people with too much money giving terms I would not give, and there's a lot fewer people with substantial equity. In the past I would only take the first creditor position and loan no more tha 35% L:V. Anyhow as credit continues to tighten I see it maybe making a comeback.

Edited July 18, 2008 by lannarebirth

[Pakboong]

My favorite place to put cash to work is hard money lending. I am not doing it at present, but have done it in the past. It's a tough go right now because there are just too many people with too much money giving terms I would not give, and there's a lot fewer people with substantial equity. In the past I would only take the first creditor position and loan no more tha 35% L:V. Anyhow as credit continues to tighten I see it maybe making a comeback.

I have never purchased a commodity as strictly an investment but I am looking to silver right now. There is a seriously diminishing supply of world silver. Silver has always been and stands to always be used as money in some form. I am talking taking delivery and storing it myself. Not easy but with so much silver as only paper, not having the actual silver could pose huge problems. The Perth Mint is having big difficulties right now keeping up with orders. I am confident that silver will break $50 again and several "experts" are talking triple digits.

[cloudhopper]

Hi I'm reviving this thread to see what the latest thinking is.

My disposable liquid assets are about 75% USD, 20% physical gold and 5% THB. The financial situation in the US has looked untenable to me for some time now and I have been looking into diversifying my currency holdings, but have been holding off due to the recent strengthening of the $, but I don't know how long this might continue.

I look at the JPY and their currency seems to have been relatively stable in spite of a HUGE (even compared to the US) national debt - (why?). The Euro economy looks very unstable and uncompetitive on the global market in part due to strong unions, social program obligations etc. The UK economy appears to be headed off a cliff. The A$, Brazilian etc. seems dependent on commodities, which also appear to be headed down if the world economic velocity continues to slow. China could melt down just as fast as it rose. In short - I'm baffled.

Like many posters on this thread I'm more interested in return OF than ON my capital, and especially preserving it's purchasing power. My interest is in the medium/long term macroeconomic outlook rather than short term investing/trading for which I have never had the requisite DNA.

Anyway I would be interested in other member's current thinking along these lines.

[meom]

It is probably against all economic principles but I go with my gut feeling which says cash is king and keep it where you intend on spending it. In my case that would be Thailand so despite all turmoil I feel confident in the long run and have piece of mind keeping all assets in Thailand despite a lousy interest rate and increasing inflation.

Flame away

[wintermute]

My cash is always working for me. Daytrade options .

[bendix]

I'm considering investing in tulip bulbs. I think the time is right for a return to favour of these lovely things.

[vertigo4u]

coal miners - especially Indonesian ones. Banpu and ITMG come to mind. Supply blockages out of Australia are real, and indonesian miners are going to benefit from this.

samran - could you please tell me, on which financial website i can find their quotings?

[Naam]

It is probably against all economic principles but I go with my gut feeling which says cash is king and keep it where you intend on spending it. In my case that would be Thailand so despite all turmoil I feel confident in the long run and have piece of mind keeping all assets in Thailand despite a lousy interest rate and increasing inflation.

Flame away

i don't think anybody will flame you. anybody who keeps all his assets (especially the liquid ones) in a country with currency restrictions deserves our full sympathy not to forget that the proceeds from liquid assets are subject to thai income tax whereas the offshore taxhavens don't deduct a single penny and for the thai taxman the proceeds offshore are irrelevant.

well.. to each his own

[ilyushin]

Loan shark! Looks like your dorsal fin is big enough.

[cloudhopper]

So Naam, if the best place to invest cash is in - cash, where's the best place to keep it and in what form do you reckon?

i have of course still assets (bonds) which are not cash Cloudhopper. but whatever proceeds i receive are added to my existing cash all of which i keep on overnight or weekly rates enabling me to switch currencies within a few minutes (which i don't do very often) if need be. present status of cash is (all percentages approximately) €UR 50%, AUD 10%, TRY 12%, NZD 7%, NOK 4%, INR 4%, BRL 10%, THB 3%. i a, looking for more diversification (e.g. CNY, IDR, PHP) but that's quite difficult to arrange.

Naam I was always intrigued that your cash diversification did not include $US. Are you still staying clear of US$ ? You seem to be into some fairly high yielding currencies, whereas some like JPY, CHF etc. are thought (by some anyway) to be a bit more "solidly backed" but don't offer much yield. Just curious about the calculus of yield vs exchange rate/purchasing power risk in choosing how to diversify...

[Naam]

So Naam, if the best place to invest cash is in - cash, where's the best place to keep it and in what form do you reckon?

i have of course still assets (bonds) which are not cash Cloudhopper. but whatever proceeds i receive are added to my existing cash all of which i keep on overnight or weekly rates enabling me to switch currencies within a few minutes (which i don't do very often) if need be. present status of cash is (all percentages approximately) €UR 50%, AUD 10%, TRY 12%, NZD 7%, NOK 4%, INR 4%, BRL 10%, THB 3%. i a, looking for more diversification (e.g. CNY, IDR, PHP) but that's quite difficult to arrange.

Naam I was always intrigued that your cash diversification did not include $US. Are you still staying clear of US$ ? You seem to be into some fairly high yielding currencies, whereas some like JPY, CHF etc. are thought (by some anyway) to be a bit more "solidly backed" but don't offer much yield. Just curious about the calculus of yield vs exchange rate/purchasing power risk in choosing how to diversify...

of course not CH! august 13th was for me a turning point when i got rid of all HY-currencies as well as NOK and CHF (except my beloved TRY which is stable vs. USD and yields ~18% for cash!). my USD-holdings are back to 34% (55% bonds / 45% cash). but as of today afternoon i have again mixed feelings and closed an open position to rake in some profits derived from the recent USD strength. that might have been a mistake but nobody ever got poor from taking profits

USD cash was until recently a big no-no for me and i am not sure what to do with my present $-cash. i don't see much alternatives although my belly says the big dollar rally is running out of steam.

[meom]

It is probably against all economic principles but I go with my gut feeling which says cash is king and keep it where you intend on spending it. In my case that would be Thailand so despite all turmoil I feel confident in the long run and have piece of mind keeping all assets in Thailand despite a lousy interest rate and increasing inflation.

Flame away

i don't think anybody will flame you. anybody who keeps all his assets (especially the liquid ones) in a country with currency restrictions deserves our full sympathy not to forget that the proceeds from liquid assets are subject to thai income tax whereas the offshore taxhavens don't deduct a single penny and for the thai taxman the proceeds offshore are irrelevant.

well.. to each his own

You’re right off course regarding tax and currency restrictions. On the other hand if you take into account exchange rate fluctuations it gets a bit more complicated and I not sure if you’re still correct. You probably are but it would be nice to see a calculation of some sorts

So taking into account historical USD:THB exchange rates maybe somebody can calculate the outcome of the following scenario:

From 1 January 1995 X convert USD.12000 a year in a THB savings account at 2.5% interest (minus 15% tax on interest) while Y deposit USD.12000 a year in a Singapore Offshore account at 7.5% (tax free) interest.

How much does X have on 1 January 2008 and how much Y?

[Naam]

You seem to be into some fairly high yielding currencies, whereas some like JPY, CHF etc. are thought (by some anyway) to be a bit more "solidly backed" but don't offer much yield. Just curious about the calculus of yield vs exchange rate/purchasing power risk in choosing how to diversify...

a tricky question for which i don't have a straight answer. here are some explanations: i never look at purchasing power and i have only a sympathetic smile for those who believe in the "Mac-Index" et al and evavaluate currencies accordingly. i take a look at the fundamentals but my priority is balancing investments in high yield which is combined with high risk with those of low yield/low risk in a ratio 1/3 to 2/3. in other words... i try to match an investment of 1,000 in HY with 2,000 in conservative holdings. that's rather easy when bonds are concerned.

currencies are different animals! i use of course two reference currencies (USD and €UR) to calculate profit and loss but i don't have a "real" reference currency which i can consider as conservative or depending on. so the whole procedure has become quite academic and i am a bit lost anyway, i "do" HY-currencies only in cash and that enables me (as mentioned before) to act or react during 20 hours on trading days.

although we (my wife and me) live in Thailand i am not focussing on THB and i am not hedging our THB curent expenses because we are in a rather favourable financial position. a few years ago the situation was different and i hedged all expenses for land, house and cars, i.e. buying all necessary THB (and much more) well in advance.

[cloudhopper]

USD cash was until recently a big no-no for me and i am not sure what to do with my present $-cash. i don't see much alternatives although my belly says the big dollar rally is running out of steam.

Well you're not the only one with this concern - sounds like you take a very active approach to the problem though!

BTW a very interesting website I found via some post here on this board is www.nakedcapitalism.com and there was a recent blog about the Korean Won taking a big dive - not so interesting in and of itself but the subsequent comments posted reflected quite a bit of discussion concerning the "safe havens", or lack of them(!), out there in light of various scenarios, "doomsday" and otherwise.....

[malcolminthemiddle]

From 1 January 1995 X convert USD.12000 a year in a THB savings account at 2.5% interest (minus 15% tax on interest) while Y deposit USD.12000 a year in a Singapore Offshore account at 7.5% (tax free) interest.

How much does X have on 1 January 2008 and how much Y?

Subject to audit, on Jan 1st 2008 X has US$196,975 at an exchange rate of 30.04 while Y has US$226,268. The first 3 years with the ER circa 25 didn't help X much.

[Naam]

I have never purchased a commodity as strictly an investment but I am looking to silver right now. There is a seriously diminishing supply of world silver. Silver has always been and stands to always be used as money in some form. I am talking taking delivery and storing it myself. Not easy but with so much silver as only paper, not having the actual silver could pose huge problems. The Perth Mint is having big difficulties right now keeping up with orders. I am confident that silver will break $50 again and several "experts" are talking triple digits.

-silver was never $ 50, the highest price (i think early 1980) was ~$23 and then the Hunt brothers went belly-up. their saudi partner was bailed out by his father.

-there is a good chance that my wife will approve that i acquire 18-year old triplets as mia nois before silver reaches triple digits

[Naam]

USD cash was until recently a big no-no for me and i am not sure what to do with my present $-cash. i don't see much alternatives although my belly says the big dollar rally is running out of steam.

Well you're not the only one with this concern - sounds like you take a very active approach to the problem though!

too active for my liking

[libya 115]

The best investment available at the moment is a Republican victory in November.

Pays 150% for a two month investment.

In two months time, I will say 'told ya'