Stock Market In Freefall?

[cclub75]

Well, showing my hand: I have been invested in the SET (and other markets) for many years.

At the present, even though I don't look at the SET weekly, let alone daily, I am still investing once a month into it. Frankly, if I can buy companies that I believe are good cash generators, with good management, at prices that I was buying them at 4 or more years ago, well, I am happy.

I'm still baffled by the ingenuity of many "investors".

What does mean "good cash generator" ?

How can you evaluate PER's for instance when the global slowdown has just started, when we still wait for the effects on companies results ?

And what's the point to speak about the "prices of 4 years ago" ?

How can you compare the current situation with the one "4 years ago" ?

It's just amazing.

The truth is : you have, we have zero visibility. And the only wise strategy is to wait, even though you could loose some opportunities.

[lannarebirth]

Here's a chart I've presented here several times before. The horizontal lines are support zones. If I were to place a bet on it (which I'm not) I think it's headed to the gap at 517. Not quickly I don't think, but it's a magnet.

Today's close 605.14.

And when the world markets & particularly the US citizens wake up to the fact that the recent "interventions" by the US Govt. are not necessarily good for a free market system & the US taxpayer is footing the bill, the shit is going to hit the fan.

I think Allen Greenspan's "once in a hundred year event" is at our doorstep & 517 might only be a landing somewhere on a long flight of stairs.

Yes, perhaps. I'm not sure it's going there, but I think it's probable. My only point in making the posts is that I see it as a vulnerability in this particular market. I wouldn't want to be in it, believing it had to return there at some point. Also, I don't claim that will be the low, only I feel it needs to at least fill that gap. I would think there are probably lots of places better to put ones money at this time than Thailand.

Well it has blasted through the "517" level today.

505.97 at 11.00am.

I never really had cause to look before now, but I note there are daily gaps in the SET chart back to as low as 280. Gaps tend to get filled, but not always. You think that's scary, there's a gap in the NASDAQ chart at 380.

Edited October 8, 2008 by lannarebirth

[bendix]

With the Dow at 5 year lows, the SET trading around anklelevel, Nikkei losing 10% today, Aussie down 5% today . . there HAS to be some excellent buying opportunities out there. There seems to be an awful lot of panic selling / herd mentality activity going on at the moment.

Anyone interested in jumping back in yet?

[LaoPo]

You think that's scary, there's a gap in the NASDAQ chart at 380.

..last time was 26 July, 1991.......380....

I'll get my coat.....

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

With the Dow at 5 year lows, the SET trading around anklelevel, Nikkei losing 10% today, Aussie down 5% today . . there HAS to be some excellent buying opportunities out there. There seems to be an awful lot of panic selling / herd mentality activity going on at the moment.

Anyone interested in jumping back in yet?

Not me; (some) Bonds is the only way for the time being and even than it's not easy; not my piece of cake; Naam knows a lot more about bonds.

It's not about herd mentality anymore; it's about saving your own @rse. A good sign is that there was a report yesterday that (some) Americans are starting to pay off their debts. That means automatically however a drop in spending and a drop in spending means less manufacturing output, where ever in the world, and thus hurting the normal economy, exports and imports and thus consuming/buying.

It's one way or the other.

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

A good friend of mine predicted, some 20 years ago, that the NIKKEI (then at about 37,000) would someday trade below the DJIA (then about 2,000). That day has come today. Great call Jerry R. , wherever you are.

[Naam]

With the Dow at 5 year lows, the SET trading around anklelevel, Nikkei losing 10% today, Aussie down 5% today . . there HAS to be some excellent buying opportunities out there. There seems to be an awful lot of panic selling / herd mentality activity going on at the moment.

Anyone interested in jumping back in yet?

Not me; (some) Bonds is the only way for the time being and even than it's not easy; not my piece of cake; Naam knows a lot more about bonds.

It's not about herd mentality anymore; it's about saving your own @rse. A good sign is that there was a report yesterday that (some) Americans are starting to pay off their debts. That means automatically however a drop in spending and a drop in spending means less manufacturing output, where ever in the world, and thus hurting the normal economy, exports and imports and thus consuming/buying.

It's one way or the other.

LaoPo

Naam learned his lesson about bonds the hard way especially when to have them and when not to have them

Edited October 8, 2008 by Naam

[Naam]

date: november 1989

venue: Best Friend Bar, Beach Road, Pattaya

participants: two young german bankers from Berlin

bankers: "Nikkei 60,000 by june next year. our futures will make us rich!"

naam: "ahemm... don't you think you are a teenie weenie itsy bitty too optimistic?"

[j_cheung]

With the Dow at 5 year lows, the SET trading around anklelevel, Nikkei losing 10% today, Aussie down 5% today . . there HAS to be some excellent buying opportunities out there. There seems to be an awful lot of panic selling / herd mentality activity going on at the moment.

Anyone interested in jumping back in yet?

Not me; (some) Bonds is the only way for the time being and even than it's not easy; not my piece of cake; Naam knows a lot more about bonds.

It's not about herd mentality anymore; it's about saving your own @rse. A good sign is that there was a report yesterday that (some) Americans are starting to pay off their debts. That means automatically however a drop in spending and a drop in spending means less manufacturing output, where ever in the world, and thus hurting the normal economy, exports and imports and thus consuming/buying.

It's one way or the other.

LaoPo

Naam learned his lesson about bonds the hard way especially when to have them and when not to have them

I second that motion. Except the equities I still hold hurt more (& they aren't either Financials, Real Estate or Chinese!) ....

[philstone]

Well, showing my hand: I have been invested in the SET (and other markets) for many years.

At the present, even though I don't look at the SET weekly, let alone daily, I am still investing once a month into it. Frankly, if I can buy companies that I believe are good cash generators, with good management, at prices that I was buying them at 4 or more years ago, well, I am happy.

If the SET goes up 20% tomorrow, I'm not fazed. If it goes down 20% tomorrow....I'm not fazed. I don't need the money now or in the foreseeable future so its simply diversification of assets...and that, IMHO is never a bad thing.

Who knows what tomorrow (or next year) may bring?

Having you been investing since the hi of 1650 in 1994? If you had you would of been selling short the TTF index fund trade on NYSE. I would love to match my profits with yours.

I wrote the above to educate not to make fun of you.

Wish you luck with your investments.

[Naam]

Well, showing my hand: I have been invested in the SET (and other markets) for many years.

At the present, even though I don't look at the SET weekly, let alone daily, I am still investing once a month into it. Frankly, if I can buy companies that I believe are good cash generators, with good management, at prices that I was buying them at 4 or more years ago, well, I am happy.

If the SET goes up 20% tomorrow, I'm not fazed. If it goes down 20% tomorrow....I'm not fazed. I don't need the money now or in the foreseeable future so its simply diversification of assets...and that, IMHO is never a bad thing.

Who knows what tomorrow (or next year) may bring?

who or what exactly is the "SET"? a lot of people talk about him/her/it. even on television the "SET" is sometimes mentioned. is it perhaps a "set" menue in a michelin 3-star restaurant somewhere in Asia? please enlighten me, i don't want to die completely ignorant

[philstone]

Who knows what tomorrow (or next year) may bring?

who or what exactly is the "SET"? a lot of people talk about him/her/it. even on television the "SET" is sometimes mentioned. is it perhaps a "set" menue in a michelin 3-star restaurant somewhere in Asia? please enlighten me, i don't want to die completely ignorant

http://www.set.or.th/en/index.html

The Set is a index to measure the Thai Stock Market. It is like the USA Dow index or the German GDax index or the English FSTE 100 index

[Naam]

The Set is a index to measure the Thai Stock Market. It is like the USA Dow index or the German GDax index or the English FSTE 100 index

thanks for the explanation Phil. but i have another question for you: "ever heard of irony?"

[philstone]

The Set is a index to measure the Thai Stock Market. It is like the USA Dow index or the German GDax index or the English FSTE 100 index

thanks for the explanation Phil. but i have another question for you: "ever heard of irony?"

Maybe that is why I stopped Joking in my answer to you

Edited October 8, 2008 by philstone

[lordofdelusion]

With the Dow at 5 year lows, the SET trading around anklelevel, Nikkei losing 10% today, Aussie down 5% today . . there HAS to be some excellent buying opportunities out there. There seems to be an awful lot of panic selling / herd mentality activity going on at the moment.

Anyone interested in jumping back in yet?

Not me; (some) Bonds is the only way for the time being and even than it's not easy; not my piece of cake; Naam knows a lot more about bonds.

It's not about herd mentality anymore; it's about saving your own @rse. A good sign is that there was a report yesterday that (some) Americans are starting to pay off their debts. That means automatically however a drop in spending and a drop in spending means less manufacturing output, where ever in the world, and thus hurting the normal economy, exports and imports and thus consuming/buying.

It's one way or the other.

LaoPo

Naam learned his lesson about bonds the hard way especially when to have them and when not to have them

So is this a time to own any?? My bond funds are falling as fast as stock funds now. Oh, the humanity!!!!

[Naam]

With the Dow at 5 year lows, the SET trading around anklelevel, Nikkei losing 10% today, Aussie down 5% today . . there HAS to be some excellent buying opportunities out there. There seems to be an awful lot of panic selling / herd mentality activity going on at the moment.

Anyone interested in jumping back in yet?

Not me; (some) Bonds is the only way for the time being and even than it's not easy; not my piece of cake; Naam knows a lot more about bonds.

It's not about herd mentality anymore; it's about saving your own @rse. A good sign is that there was a report yesterday that (some) Americans are starting to pay off their debts. That means automatically however a drop in spending and a drop in spending means less manufacturing output, where ever in the world, and thus hurting the normal economy, exports and imports and thus consuming/buying.

It's one way or the other.

LaoPo

Naam learned his lesson about bonds the hard way especially when to have them and when not to have them

So is this a time to own any?? My bond funds are falling as fast as stock funds now. Oh, the humanity!!!!

bond funds =

[Naam]

funds = funds managers = what the fàck do i care, it's not my money

funds = dinosaurs = cannot move fast

funds = cannot sell big volume as prices would be even more depressed, then year end bonus not enough to buy Ferrari

funds = vhot der fock do you vont? vee make losses? yes! but truth is vee beat ze average appreciashon oond are better zen ozzer funds as vell as ze S&P!

[soundman]

News just out of Japan concerning their financial institutions....

Update on Banking crisis... news from Japan

Following the problems in the sub-prime lending market in America and the run on HBOS in the UK, uncertainty has now hit Japan .

In the last 7 hours Origami Bank has folded, Sumo Bank has gone belly up and Bonsai Bank announced plans to cut some of its branches. Yesterday, it was announced that Karaoke Bank is up for sale and will likely go for a song, while today shares in Kamikaze Bank were suspended after they nose-dived.

Samurai Bank is soldiering on following sharp cutbacks, Ninja Bank is reported to have taken a hit, but they remain in the black. Furthermore, 500 staff at Karate Bank got the chop and analysts report that there is something fishy going on at Sushi Bank where it is feared that staff may get a raw deal.

[samuibeachcomber]

News just out of Japan concerning their financial institutions....

Update on Banking crisis... news from Japan

Following the problems in the sub-prime lending market in America and the run on HBOS in the UK, uncertainty has now hit Japan .

In the last 7 hours Origami Bank has folded, Sumo Bank has gone belly up and Bonsai Bank announced plans to cut some of its branches. Yesterday, it was announced that Karaoke Bank is up for sale and will likely go for a song, while today shares in Kamikaze Bank were suspended after they nose-dived.

Samurai Bank is soldiering on following sharp cutbacks, Ninja Bank is reported to have taken a hit, but they remain in the black. Furthermore, 500 staff at Karate Bank got the chop and analysts report that there is something fishy going on at Sushi Bank where it is feared that staff may get a raw deal.

<deleted> brilliant,think i'll go and have a quiet cup of green tea.

[Naam]

i don't care about any japanese bank except Bonsai Bank. does that mean no more little Bonsais on the market?

[soundman]

An abatoir would be a better description of today's market trading.

Down 40 points to end at 451.96.

[Bizz]

Did i imagine this that the Thai Set was closed early today.

Was listening to Bloomberg