Stock Market In Freefall?

[soundman]

Stocks tumble

Asian stocks declined Tuesday on worries about the regional financial sector's exposure to troubled US mortgage firms. The Stock Exchange of Thailand index fell by more than 3.3 per cent - down 23.65 points to 693.41.

Analysts following the SET said the market also fell because of domestic factors, including political tension, high inflation and rising oil prices.

In addition to the SET index, the blue-chip SET-50 fell 19.43 points to close at 489.22.

Taiwan stocks saw the day's biggest losses in Asia with the Taiex closing down 4.51 per cent.

Stocks in mainland China dove more than 4 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 3.81 per cent and South Korea's Kospi drooped 3.16 per cent to 1,509.33.

Story here.

Set Trade Link.

Looks like the markets think the Thai economy is going belly up.

Soundman.

[AFKAFSinLOS]

Stocks tumble

Asian stocks declined Tuesday on worries about the regional financial sector's exposure to troubled US mortgage firms. The Stock Exchange of Thailand index fell by more than 3.3 per cent - down 23.65 points to 693.41.

Analysts following the SET said the market also fell because of domestic factors, including political tension, high inflation and rising oil prices.

In addition to the SET index, the blue-chip SET-50 fell 19.43 points to close at 489.22.

Taiwan stocks saw the day's biggest losses in Asia with the Taiex closing down 4.51 per cent.

Stocks in mainland China dove more than 4 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 3.81 per cent and South Korea's Kospi drooped 3.16 per cent to 1,509.33.

Story here.

Set Trade Link.

Looks like the markets think the Thai economy is going belly up.

Soundman.

Nah... Freefalls are the 20%+ in a day we saw in '87 and '97...

As for markets they're often out of sync with the economy and driven by sentiment... In the last 10 years or so we've seen increases in the additional abilities for people to leverage and manipulate. The Thai future and options exchanges are quite small at the moment on that score, but that will eventually come too...

Thailand wil have a few challenges this year including the cabinet circus acts, but fundamentals are good. GDP of around 5% is reasonable... Falling markets don't discriminate... key is not to panic...

Selling is overdone if based on rational thoughts... Unfortunately sentiment has the upper hand for now...

[lannarebirth]

Here's a chart I've presented here several times before. The horizontal lines are support zones. If I were to place a bet on it (which I'm not) I think it's headed to the gap at 517. Not quickly I don't think, but it's a magnet.

[lannarebirth]

Stocks tumble

Asian stocks declined Tuesday on worries about the regional financial sector's exposure to troubled US mortgage firms. The Stock Exchange of Thailand index fell by more than 3.3 per cent - down 23.65 points to 693.41.

Analysts following the SET said the market also fell because of domestic factors, including political tension, high inflation and rising oil prices.

In addition to the SET index, the blue-chip SET-50 fell 19.43 points to close at 489.22.

Taiwan stocks saw the day's biggest losses in Asia with the Taiex closing down 4.51 per cent.

Stocks in mainland China dove more than 4 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 3.81 per cent and South Korea's Kospi drooped 3.16 per cent to 1,509.33.

Story here.

Set Trade Link.

Looks like the markets think the Thai economy is going belly up.

Soundman.

Nah... Freefalls are the 20%+ in a day we saw in '87 and '97...

As for markets they're often out of sync with the economy and driven by sentiment... In the last 10 years or so we've seen increases in the additional abilities for people to leverage and manipulate. The Thai future and options exchanges are quite small at the moment on that score, but that will eventually come too...

Thailand wil have a few challenges this year including the cabinet circus acts, but fundamentals are good. GDP of around 5% is reasonable... Falling markets don't discriminate... key is not to panic...

Selling is overdone if based on rational thoughts... Unfortunately sentiment has the upper hand for now...

These fundamentals you speak of, isn't inflation one of them? If GDP is 5% and inflation is 8%-10% (or more), doesn't that in fact represent negative growth?

[Poottrong]

Being currently invested in the Thai stock market this is painful. Some share prices are incredibly cheap right now and I'm looking at buying some more blue chips for 1 to 2 year investment.

[AFKAFSinLOS]

These fundamentals you speak of, isn't inflation one of them? If GDP is 5% and inflation is 8%-10% (or more), doesn't that in fact represent negative growth?

Indeed inflation is one of many.... . A few things to bear in mind though before ovrsimplifying that + 5 -8% is neagtive:

- Stripping out the oil impact on the inflation number gives around around 3%, which is not too bad given the oil price increases overall would increase inflation but reduce GDP.

- Recently announced measures, eg cutting excise tax on gasohol and diesel should lower retail prices by 5%+ on these items

- That 8% is a point in time. It isn't the average for the year. This would be lower. The average for the year is a fairer comparison to match with GDP which takes a full years data.

At the end of the day though company earnings vs price, are more important than GDP and inflation for appraising stock markets. That's before considering which version of inflation we're talking about, and spins like whether it's asset based, commodity etc inflation...

Another thing to bear in mind is that over time return on equities will usually exceed inflation... so I'm not so worried on the GDP vs inflation ...Interesting headline figures as you say though...

[lannarebirth]

Another thing to bear in mind is that over time return on equities will usually exceed inflation... so I'm not so worried on the GDP vs inflation

That's assuming the equities were purchased at reasonable valuations to begin with. That's pretty hard to acertain in Thailand where the average lifespan of an honest auditor is less than that of a fruit fly. My recollection is that the last major low in the SET came the day after the Bali bombing. Hope no "buying opportunities" like that lay in anyone's future. Good Luck.

[AFKAFSinLOS]

Being currently invested in the Thai stock market this is painful. Some share prices are incredibly cheap right now and I'm looking at buying some more blue chips for 1 to 2 year investment.

Depends on your perspectives... I don't focus too much on short term movements, and leave that to traders. Otherwise you end up euphoric in good times and slitting your wrists in bad... YTD Thai elements of my portfolio are down around 18% after today. On a 5 year view they've doubled. On an 8 year view up 400%+. While short term trends are worth monitoring and interesting to discuss, in my plans its the 5 year view that counts... . I don't hold a single investment that has lost money over 5 years...

I look at it to get the 100% goal over 5 years, I have to take the risk of short term fluctuations. The people who get it seriously wrong are the people who try to time it. There are so many retail investors is likely to buy when everyone is making money near the top, and then panics and sells when things look bad like now. Now isn't the time to be thinking whether you shouldbe playing or not if you're already in the market. As you say, now is exactly the time to be looking for those buys. Rises usually hit suddenly, so the risk of being out of the market at the moment is high, but forget timing exactly when. Short term there may well be a bit more to lose... but longer term...

Edited July 16, 2008 by AFKAFSinLOS

[goldfish]

This is the FTSE100 over the last 5 days.

untitled.bmp

Currently at it's lowest point for about 3 years

[AFKAFSinLOS]

Here's a chart I've presented here several times before. The horizontal lines are support zones. If I were to place a bet on it (which I'm not) I think it's headed to the gap at 517. Not quickly I don't think, but it's a magnet.

I like charts and find them an interesting way of looking at things....

When it comes to Thailand though, I'm not sure whether it's a psychological block or not, but I feel they have less importance here. After all, so much else here often seems irrational and illogical, until you boot up on your Thai operating system and look at it from a Thai perspective. Why should the stock market be any different? Applying a scientific approach to Thailand always feels a bit odd...

Applying it to US/UK/Germany would seem reasonable and feel comfortable. But for Thailand for some reason I can't buy it. Though I do read them most days... I wonder if there's a particular branch of charting that deals with how the approach should differ for a country like Thailand, in the same way a psychiatrist probably has to throw away his text books and start again...

I think the 517 level is very unlikely, but then again I wouldn't like to bet on it either and stranger things have happened. I'll still be there with the smilies though... holding my investments and a little bit more if we do..

Edited July 16, 2008 by AFKAFSinLOS

[soundman]

Applying a scientific approach to Thailand always feels a bit odd...

A "craps shoot" comes to mind.

[jumnien]

The SET often follows the US markets. Expect a huge rally today!

[soundman]

The SET often follows the US markets. Expect a huge rally today!

Isn't it a holiday today?

[jumnien]

The SET often follows the US markets. Expect a huge rally today!

Isn't it a holiday today?

Everyday with a big rally is a holiday!

[cclub75]

- Stripping out the oil impact on the inflation number gives around around 3%, which is not too bad given the oil price increases overall would increase inflation but reduce GDP.

The important point is the future : oil and other so called "volatile" items are slowly but surely contaminate the whole economy.

I mean, have a look on the Producer Prices Index !

+18,6 % in june, year on year...

A nice chart here.

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/07/03...at-186-in-june/

Ask yourself... is that not highly inflationary ? Do you believe that businesses are going to look their margins melting under the sun, without doing nothing ?

- Recently announced measures, eg cutting excise tax on gasohol and diesel should lower retail prices by 5%+ on these items

- That 8% is a point in time. It isn't the average for the year. This would be lower. The average for the year is a fairer comparison to match with GDP which takes a full years data.

Fighting inflation with capped prices and subsidies is not an efficient policy... And the thai gvt is a champion on this matter. Question : what do we do in 6 months ? Continue to subsidize diesel ?

Due to base effect, CPI will continue to go up in the coming months. And the average for the year will be high.

At the end of the day though company earnings vs price, are more important than GDP and inflation for appraising stock markets. That's before considering which version of inflation we're talking about, and spins like whether it's asset based, commodity etc inflation...

Another thing to bear in mind is that over time return on equities will usually exceed inflation... so I'm not so worried on the GDP vs inflation ...Interesting headline figures as you say though...

Wait a minute... company earnings and GDP are directly linked... And as far is GDP is concerned, inflation is important. To make year on year comparison for GDP (growth of GDP) we use real GDP (constant prices)... and real GDP is nominal GPD minus... the deflator...

And there is of course a corelation between CPI and deflator.

But due to a statiscal glitch, the deflator was down on Q1 (4 %) compare to Q4 2007 (5 %)...

So... on Q2 it should be another story. And Q3 and Q4 too...

[ChiefBEM]

The SET often follows the US markets. Expect a huge rally today!

US Stock Markets Closed July 16, 2008,

Dow Jones UP 276.74 points!

Price Change

^DJI 11,239.28 276.74 2.52%

^IXIC 2,284.85 69.14 3.12%

^YHOO 22.48 0.94 4.36%

^MSFT 27.26 1.11 4.24%

^ORCL 20.44 0.19 0.94%

^PSQL N/A N/A N/A

^CA 22.40 0.74 3.42%

[soundman]

Here's a chart I've presented here several times before. The horizontal lines are support zones. If I were to place a bet on it (which I'm not) I think it's headed to the gap at 517. Not quickly I don't think, but it's a magnet.

Anybody else want to look into their "crystal balls" and make a prediction where the slide might bottom out?

Added:

Considering aspects of massive inflation, possible recession as exports are on the slide and imports have ballooned, a possible border conflict, pessamistic tourism data, an totally corrupt, inept government that is paying more attention to personal gain, keeping themselves out of gaol and is plagued with political in-fighting, street protests that are becoming nationwide, a guerilla type insurection in the south that seems un-solvable, a coup in the making with the generals coming out and publically stating they don't agree with government's course of amending the constitution, a steady increase in drug production / addiction and so on.

Edited July 17, 2008 by soundman

[RedCardinal]

The SET often follows the US markets. Expect a huge rally today!

Isn't it a holiday today?

According to settrade.com the SET is off another 3.4% today, so doesn't look like investors are following the US.

http://www.settrade.com/C13_MarketSummary.jsp?detail=SET

[soundman]

The SET often follows the US markets. Expect a huge rally today!

Isn't it a holiday today?

According to settrade.com the SET is off another 3.4% today, so doesn't look like investors are following the US.

http://www.settrade.com/C13_MarketSummary.jsp?detail=SET

Yesterday's closing figures quoted in that link.

SET is closed today.

[RedCardinal]

Oops - quoted story mentioned SET at 693.41, and then I saw the quoted index level over on bangkokpost.com.

Looks like settrade.com have a completely bogey way of computing the index level - they seem to be double counting yesterday's fall as today's trading. Someone needs to tell their devs how to compute the level when there's a holiday

Curiously though - the holiday might actually work against the SET if today's trading in US doesn't show follow through on yesterday's action.

[dotcom]

CNBC has 670.0 off 3.4% which represents Wednesday's close being as today it's closed.

[lannarebirth]

Here's a chart I've presented here several times before. The horizontal lines are support zones. If I were to place a bet on it (which I'm not) I think it's headed to the gap at 517. Not quickly I don't think, but it's a magnet.

So, it looks like the next horizontal blue line may provide support:

http://www.settrade.com/login.jsp?txtBrokerId=IPO

[crackers]

Good afternoon

Can anyone give me advice,do I need a work permit to invest in the thai SET .Do I need to pay tax if I make money,and where can I find a list of the set 100 ex div dates.

I intend to use the 800,000 bht I have over here for my retirement visa,and invest it at one of the stock market shops at airport plaza.

Kev

Here's a chart I've presented here several times before. The horizontal lines are support zones. If I were to place a bet on it (which I'm not) I think it's headed to the gap at 517. Not quickly I don't think, but it's a magnet.

So, it looks like the next horizontal blue line may provide support:

http://www.settrade.com/login.jsp?txtBrokerId=IPO

[VegasVic]

Being currently invested in the Thai stock market this is painful. Some share prices are incredibly cheap right now and I'm looking at buying some more blue chips for 1 to 2 year investment.

Depends on your perspectives... I don't focus too much on short term movements, and leave that to traders. Otherwise you end up euphoric in good times and slitting your wrists in bad... YTD Thai elements of my portfolio are down around 18% after today. On a 5 year view they've doubled. On an 8 year view up 400%+. While short term trends are worth monitoring and interesting to discuss, in my plans its the 5 year view that counts... . I don't hold a single investment that has lost money over 5 years...

I look at it to get the 100% goal over 5 years, I have to take the risk of short term fluctuations. The people who get it seriously wrong are the people who try to time it. There are so many retail investors is likely to buy when everyone is making money near the top, and then panics and sells when things look bad like now. Now isn't the time to be thinking whether you shouldbe playing or not if you're already in the market. As you say, now is exactly the time to be looking for those buys. Rises usually hit suddenly, so the risk of being out of the market at the moment is high, but forget timing exactly when. Short term there may well be a bit more to lose... but longer term...

AFKAF, Under "normal circumstances" I would tend to agree with you, as I am usually a long term (3-5 years) investor as well. Thailand however is curently not situated in a "normal circumstances " universe. Given the fact that the cold that the U.S. contracted last summer has turned into walking pnemonia, and that it has now spread as a virulent strain of influenza throughout Europe, I would imagine that the fast growing asian economies will be the next ones hit. We have already seen net redemtions by foriegn investors in the SET so far this year, and this trend will likely continue, when you add to that the weakening baht and high inflation levels in Thailand currently and protesters getting slain in the streets with the possibility of another "forced " change in government, this all does not add up for a very good risk-reward profile for anyone thinking of investing in the SET at the moment. I am not a T/A guy (I'll leave that to Lanna) so I don't know if the SET is headed to 517, but i do know that the risk to investing in Thailand right now far outweighs any possible reward. I certainly hope that the current political crisis will end soon without any more bloodshead, I hope that the dire predictions for the upcoming tourist season do not come true, and I hope that Thailand can get its inflation under control, but I am like most investors and we need more than just a glimmer of hope before we will invest our money.

[lannarebirth]

Here's a chart I've presented here several times before. The horizontal lines are support zones. If I were to place a bet on it (which I'm not) I think it's headed to the gap at 517. Not quickly I don't think, but it's a magnet.

So, it looks like the next horizontal blue line may provide support:

And so it goes.

http://www.settrade.com/eng/login.jsp

[soundman]

Here's a chart I've presented here several times before. The horizontal lines are support zones. If I were to place a bet on it (which I'm not) I think it's headed to the gap at 517. Not quickly I don't think, but it's a magnet.

Today's close 605.14.

And when the world markets & particularly the US citizens wake up to the fact that the recent "interventions" by the US Govt. are not necessarily good for a free market system & the US taxpayer is footing the bill, the shit is going to hit the fan.

I think Allen Greenspan's "once in a hundred year event" is at our doorstep & 517 might only be a landing somewhere on a long flight of stairs.

[lannarebirth]

Here's a chart I've presented here several times before. The horizontal lines are support zones. If I were to place a bet on it (which I'm not) I think it's headed to the gap at 517. Not quickly I don't think, but it's a magnet.

Today's close 605.14.

And when the world markets & particularly the US citizens wake up to the fact that the recent "interventions" by the US Govt. are not necessarily good for a free market system & the US taxpayer is footing the bill, the shit is going to hit the fan.

I think Allen Greenspan's "once in a hundred year event" is at our doorstep & 517 might only be a landing somewhere on a long flight of stairs.

Yes, perhaps. I'm not sure it's going there, but I think it's probable. My only point in making the posts is that I see it as a vulnerability in this particular market. I wouldn't want to be in it, believing it had to return there at some point. Also, I don't claim that will be the low, only I feel it needs to at least fill that gap. I would think there are probably lots of places better to put ones money at this time than Thailand.

[london]

Well, showing my hand: I have been invested in the SET (and other markets) for many years.

At the present, even though I don't look at the SET weekly, let alone daily, I am still investing once a month into it. Frankly, if I can buy companies that I believe are good cash generators, with good management, at prices that I was buying them at 4 or more years ago, well, I am happy.

If the SET goes up 20% tomorrow, I'm not fazed. If it goes down 20% tomorrow....I'm not fazed. I don't need the money now or in the foreseeable future so its simply diversification of assets...and that, IMHO is never a bad thing.

Who knows what tomorrow (or next year) may bring?

[PCA]

Well, showing my hand: I have been invested in the SET (and other markets) for many years.

At the present, even though I don't look at the SET weekly, let alone daily, I am still investing once a month into it. Frankly, if I can buy companies that I believe are good cash generators, with good management, at prices that I was buying them at 4 or more years ago, well, I am happy.

If the SET goes up 20% tomorrow, I'm not fazed. If it goes down 20% tomorrow....I'm not fazed. I don't need the money now or in the foreseeable future so its simply diversification of assets...and that, IMHO is never a bad thing.

Who knows what tomorrow (or next year) may bring?

sure a good thing, scaling and averaging in with money you don't need for living expenses unexpectedly. To be optimized with preferably bluechips paying a dividend.

[soundman]

Here's a chart I've presented here several times before. The horizontal lines are support zones. If I were to place a bet on it (which I'm not) I think it's headed to the gap at 517. Not quickly I don't think, but it's a magnet.

Today's close 605.14.

And when the world markets & particularly the US citizens wake up to the fact that the recent "interventions" by the US Govt. are not necessarily good for a free market system & the US taxpayer is footing the bill, the shit is going to hit the fan.

I think Allen Greenspan's "once in a hundred year event" is at our doorstep & 517 might only be a landing somewhere on a long flight of stairs.

Yes, perhaps. I'm not sure it's going there, but I think it's probable. My only point in making the posts is that I see it as a vulnerability in this particular market. I wouldn't want to be in it, believing it had to return there at some point. Also, I don't claim that will be the low, only I feel it needs to at least fill that gap. I would think there are probably lots of places better to put ones money at this time than Thailand.

Well it has blasted through the "517" level today.

505.97 at 11.00am.