Bangkok Condo Prices Surging

[zorro1]

What rent you payin dotcom? where approx is the condo located, if you domt mind?

[bkkjames]

I bought into a condo a couple of years back. A project called the Regent Residences on Sukhumvit Road near Ambassador hotel. I don't know what's happening with it. In theory, another company took it over and it will be completed at the end of 2009 (2 years late). However, it's been about a year since this happened and as far as I know, there's been no further construction.

I bought for about B11,700,000. I paid 25% down payment for it.

If it ever gets built, I'll be satisfied with it. It's a great location. I'm past the point of being concerned now. I just think of it as a bonus if I get my money back or the condo.

Anyone have any advice on what I should do further?

I live in Trendy condos across the soi from Regent, for the last 3 weeks the crane has been working everynight.

They have been stripping everything that is not bolted down.

Trucks have been loaded up with metal door frames, all scafolding on site, metal beams by the truck load, even PVC piping has been carted away.

ALL IN THE DEAD OF NIGHT!! away from preying eyes.

Looks like everything of value has been taken off site.

I also hear that your Trendy Condo group is not doing very well.

[zorro1]

I bought into a condo a couple of years back. A project called the Regent Residences on Sukhumvit Road near Ambassador hotel. I don't know what's happening with it. In theory, another company took it over and it will be completed at the end of 2009 (2 years late). However, it's been about a year since this happened and as far as I know, there's been no further construction.

I bought for about B11,700,000. I paid 25% down payment for it.

If it ever gets built, I'll be satisfied with it. It's a great location. I'm past the point of being concerned now. I just think of it as a bonus if I get my money back or the condo.

Anyone have any advice on what I should do further?

I live in Trendy condos across the soi from Regent, for the last 3 weeks the crane has been working everynight.

They have been stripping everything that is not bolted down.

Trucks have been loaded up with metal door frames, all scafolding on site, metal beams by the truck load, even PVC piping has been carted away.

ALL IN THE DEAD OF NIGHT!! away from preying eyes.

Looks like everything of value has been taken off site.

I also hear that your Trendy Condo group is not doing very well.

In what way James?

[bkkjames]

I bought into a condo a couple of years back. A project called the Regent Residences on Sukhumvit Road near Ambassador hotel. I don't know what's happening with it. In theory, another company took it over and it will be completed at the end of 2009 (2 years late). However, it's been about a year since this happened and as far as I know, there's been no further construction.

I bought for about B11,700,000. I paid 25% down payment for it.

If it ever gets built, I'll be satisfied with it. It's a great location. I'm past the point of being concerned now. I just think of it as a bonus if I get my money back or the condo.

Anyone have any advice on what I should do further?

I live in Trendy condos across the soi from Regent, for the last 3 weeks the crane has been working everynight.

They have been stripping everything that is not bolted down.

Trucks have been loaded up with metal door frames, all scafolding on site, metal beams by the truck load, even PVC piping has been carted away.

ALL IN THE DEAD OF NIGHT!! away from preying eyes.

Looks like everything of value has been taken off site.

I also hear that your Trendy Condo group is not doing very well.

In what way James?

Without mentioning names, when I was speaking to a fairly well-connected individual in the industry about The Regent next door, this person mentioned Trendy as well. To which I replied, well it's finished (or nearly no?), he just shrugged his shoulders and said watch this space.

Not wanting to cause anyone alarm, but worth looking into to see if there is an issue there or not.

[zorro1]

Still not sure what your trying to say. I have was one of the first to move into Trendy and have watched it develop and its 100% finished and fully functional, unless you know something I don't?

[bkkjames]

Still not sure what your trying to say. I have was one of the first to move into Trendy and have watched it develop and its 100% finished and fully functional, unless you know something I don't?

Like I said, I said the same thing to him and he gave me a very funny look, take it for what its worth.

[steveromagnino]

Still not sure what your trying to say. I have was one of the first to move into Trendy and have watched it develop and its 100% finished and fully functional, unless you know something I don't?

Like I said, I said the same thing to him and he gave me a very funny look, take it for what its worth.

hasn't the bank already taken ownership of The Trendy and were the ones selling many of the units?

My guess is any unsold units will be taken back; if you have possession of a condo then I cannot see how a creditor can chase you up for unpaid work....I guess possible to have reposession of mechanical systems but legally not sure this is easy to do as a supplier unless you have a lien on it which is somehow addressed in the sale and pruchase agreements?

[zorro1]

Still not sure what your trying to say. I have was one of the first to move into Trendy and have watched it develop and its 100% finished and fully functional, unless you know something I don't?

Like I said, I said the same thing to him and he gave me a very funny look, take it for what its worth.

hasn't the bank already taken ownership of The Trendy and were the ones selling many of the units?

My guess is any unsold units will be taken back; if you have possession of a condo then I cannot see how a creditor can chase you up for unpaid work....I guess possible to have reposession of mechanical systems but legally not sure this is easy to do as a supplier unless you have a lien on it which is somehow addressed in the sale and pruchase agreements?

Im not trying to be funny here but I find your post very confusing. Can you try again? what bank? creditors chasing condo owners for what unpaid work? repo of what mechanical systems??

[steveromagnino]

Im not trying to be funny here but I find your post very confusing. Can you try again? what bank? creditors chasing condo owners for what unpaid work? repo of what mechanical systems??

BBL (bangkok bank) AFAIK already had taken ownership of some of the units; at least in the trendy thread people were saying they had a sale contract with BBL, not with some developer. The Trendy obviously is financed by debt as are almost all condo developments, so somewhere along the line there is a bank who has lent money to the developer to develop with the building being the security; if they were not having the debt serviced, they might take this back (and I could be totally wrong, but i thought at least some of the sale contracts had already been handed across to a bank).

The mechanical systems for the entire development, some are shared; e.g. water pumps, lifts, centralised aircon, that sort of thing.

If a creditor had supplied the systems but had not got paid and ownership had not passed on those assets, then I would have thought they could consider going in there and taking them back. Not necessarily practical in the case of a lift, but possible to take out parts to make the lift unable to be used and then use that as leverage to get paid.

now is that clearer?

Of course, i have absolutely no idea if this is or isn't the case, Trendy and Grande Asset are a company and project I have repeatedly said was not going to be a high grade development, and I don't think anyone buying in there was expecting that much for 45,000b a sqm either. At least you all have your units (or almost all of you) - that is quite different to the other messes at Sails and Regent.

[zorro1]

yep clear and interesting although Ive not heard of this happening after completion and according to the co owners meeting last Saturday 60% of condos have been transferred.

[zorro1]

Totally agree with you on both the points you make (1st one I couldn't be bothered replying to" funny look" good grief )

That's what I did. Buy affordable and if you get your money back which you will your in front and you may even, heaven forbid , make a little profit. Unless of course your one of theses hot shots who gets 40% return in overseas investments every year or so they say

Edited July 29, 2008 by zorro1

[steveromagnino]

Still not sure what your trying to say. I have was one of the first to move into Trendy and have watched it develop and its 100% finished and fully functional, unless you know something I don't?

Like I said, I said the same thing to him and he gave me a very funny look, take it for what its worth.

So, your "well connected" friend gave you an impression during a private conversion and you decided to share it with tens of thousands of people that you'll never meet.

*giving a funny look* right now...

My question to the rest is this. I've been renting for 2.5 years now (donated about 1M baht or $30k USD). I'm thinking to find a place for 4-5M and just use it to live in. Not making money. Even if I sell it at what I paid for it in 3-4 years, i've lived for free which is better than renting.

What does everything think of that? Of course, I'd like to make return, but not loosing is also a win too right?

That's a bit harsh; BKK James AFAIK has nil connection with Trendy/Regent etc; given the drawn out saga involved I would think any info shared is better than nothing; and as for me well I know nothing other than the bits and pieces that I read, but suffice to say that Trendy, Regent and Sails are the sad side of property development that happens the world over when developers overstretch and fail to plan cash flow while using low cost contractors whose work/financial stability is questionable.

If you buy for 5m, and sell for 5m in 3-4 years, then you are most definitely not going to be living for free! Besides the obvious TVM (time value of money) which your own WACC might end up being say 3% debt free or 6-7% with a bit of borrowing, there is also the reality that you have to pay body corp fees, insurance and agent/taxes at the time of purchase and sale. So you really probably need to be buying at say 5m, and selling 4 years later at say 5.5m to 'not loosing'

So sometimes renting is indeed cheaper if the development values tank.

There is likely to be a pick up in rent prices to continue on the main thoroughfares such as BTS, MRT continuing; but generally if you are paying rent at a proportion per year of something like 5% of less on the value of the unit, then you are probably better off renting and piling that money into something more profitable, e.g. Precious Shipping shares.

That said....the place I own cost me 2.9m baht; 100sqm in an area where the new developments are costing around 5-9m for the similar size; I'd guess i could fairly easily sell for 4m now, however what to buy next? The rents in my building are about 20k a month for this sort of unit; this is about 8% yield so not too bad for me as the landlord; not so good for the renter. but if I sell at 4m, then the next guy is going to be getting something like 6% which is getting a bit marginal.

For the naysayers, the same building used to rent around 10k a month just 4 years ago, amazing what being on the underground route will do; my guess is it will be 30k 2 years from now. So much for no rental demand.

[bkkjames]

Still not sure what your trying to say. I have was one of the first to move into Trendy and have watched it develop and its 100% finished and fully functional, unless you know something I don't?

Like I said, I said the same thing to him and he gave me a very funny look, take it for what its worth.

So, your "well connected" friend gave you an impression during a private conversion and you decided to share it with tens of thousands of people that you'll never meet.

*giving a funny look* right now...

My question to the rest is this. I've been renting for 2.5 years now (donated about 1M baht or $30k USD). I'm thinking to find a place for 4-5M and just use it to live in. Not making money. Even if I sell it at what I paid for it in 3-4 years, i've lived for free which is better than renting.

What does everything think of that? Of course, I'd like to make return, but not loosing is also a win too right?

Like I said take it for what its worth. I don't own anything there nor sell condos so have nothing vested in my post. It's up to you if you want to look deeper into it or not, I don't care honestly, But people who bought into the Regent could have saved themselves a bit of grief if they did a little more research into the owner. After 8.5 years here, I am very skeptical of anything until I see it, especially when it concerns property.

[lardy]

Really well at 1.4 million each I would love to meet those westerners earning that in a couple of months? Doctors in the Uk maybe on this sort of money at a push.

Bar girls eh sheeeeeeeesh you sure know your stuff dont you!!

Step 1: there are at least 5 people on this board that earn that kind of money in BKK. OK, maybe 3 months salary, not everyone can make it in 2. And not everyone would trash 1.4 mil baht on 34sqm room.

Step 2: when we are talking real estate in BKK, how many have 34 sqm rooms as their ideal of property?

Not only here, but in real life, in general?

Step 1: learn to quote.

Your implication is that MANY westerners can afford this amount in 2 months which is clearly wrong even in the west people earning this sort of money in 2 months would be very very small. Now your saying 3 keep moving the goal posts.

So you're telling me many westerners earn about 700000 baht per month??? I dont think so.

I dont think this board is representative of "many wetserners" typical salaries even if you know of 5 here that still leaves another 62000 members that dont, some may earn more but the majority will be earning a lot less.

Step 3 learn to get step 1 and 2 first then put step 3 not step 1 again .... bit silly this nitpicking isnt it? (re your learn to quote comment)

Edited July 29, 2008 by lardy

[grapetable]

More BS from a real estate agent..................prices will fall with world economic activity............watch

[bendix]

Really well at 1.4 million each I would love to meet those westerners earning that in a couple of months? Doctors in the Uk maybe on this sort of money at a push.

Bar girls eh sheeeeeeeesh you sure know your stuff dont you!!

Step 1: there are at least 5 people on this board that earn that kind of money in BKK. OK, maybe 3 months salary, not everyone can make it in 2. And not everyone would trash 1.4 mil baht on 34sqm room.

Step 2: when we are talking real estate in BKK, how many have 34 sqm rooms as their ideal of property?

Not only here, but in real life, in general?

Step 1: learn to quote.

Your implication is that MANY westerners can afford this amount in 2 months which is clearly wrong even in the west people earning this sort of money in 2 months would be very very small. Now your saying 3 keep moving the goal posts.

So you're telling me many westerners earn about 700000 baht per month??? I dont think so.

I dont think this board is representative of "many wetserners" typical salaries even if you know of 5 here that still leaves another 62000 members that dont, some may earn more but the majority will be earning a lot less.

Step 3 learn to get step 1 and 2 first then put step 3 not step 1 again .... bit silly this nitpicking isnt it? (re your learn to quote comment)

I know many earning that much, and more. Frankly, I have never thought Thaivisa a very good representative sample of farang in Thailand. It is representative of teachers, retirees etc but very few expat salary types post here. There are 30 apartments in my building. Everyone of them has a farang family or farang family in it, and virtually all of them are working as diplomats or senior execs in international companies. I doubt if any of them have ever heard of TV, let alone post on it.

[bkkjames]

Really well at 1.4 million each I would love to meet those westerners earning that in a couple of months? Doctors in the Uk maybe on this sort of money at a push.

Bar girls eh sheeeeeeeesh you sure know your stuff dont you!!

Step 1: there are at least 5 people on this board that earn that kind of money in BKK. OK, maybe 3 months salary, not everyone can make it in 2. And not everyone would trash 1.4 mil baht on 34sqm room.

Step 2: when we are talking real estate in BKK, how many have 34 sqm rooms as their ideal of property?

Not only here, but in real life, in general?

Step 1: learn to quote.

Your implication is that MANY westerners can afford this amount in 2 months which is clearly wrong even in the west people earning this sort of money in 2 months would be very very small. Now your saying 3 keep moving the goal posts.

So you're telling me many westerners earn about 700000 baht per month??? I dont think so.

I dont think this board is representative of "many wetserners" typical salaries even if you know of 5 here that still leaves another 62000 members that dont, some may earn more but the majority will be earning a lot less.

Step 3 learn to get step 1 and 2 first then put step 3 not step 1 again .... bit silly this nitpicking isnt it? (re your learn to quote comment)

I know many earning that much, and more. Frankly, I have never thought Thaivisa a very good representative sample of farang in Thailand. It is representative of teachers, retirees etc but very few expat salary types post here. There are 30 apartments in my building. Everyone of them has a farang family or farang family in it, and virtually all of them are working as diplomats or senior execs in international companies. I doubt if any of them have ever heard of TV, let alone post on it.

Which are you?

[lardy]

Really well at 1.4 million each I would love to meet those westerners earning that in a couple of months? Doctors in the Uk maybe on this sort of money at a push.

Bar girls eh sheeeeeeeesh you sure know your stuff dont you!!

Step 1: there are at least 5 people on this board that earn that kind of money in BKK. OK, maybe 3 months salary, not everyone can make it in 2. And not everyone would trash 1.4 mil baht on 34sqm room.

Step 2: when we are talking real estate in BKK, how many have 34 sqm rooms as their ideal of property?

Not only here, but in real life, in general?

Step 1: learn to quote.

Your implication is that MANY westerners can afford this amount in 2 months which is clearly wrong even in the west people earning this sort of money in 2 months would be very very small. Now your saying 3 keep moving the goal posts.

So you're telling me many westerners earn about 700000 baht per month??? I dont think so.

I dont think this board is representative of "many wetserners" typical salaries even if you know of 5 here that still leaves another 62000 members that dont, some may earn more but the majority will be earning a lot less.

Step 3 learn to get step 1 and 2 first then put step 3 not step 1 again .... bit silly this nitpicking isnt it? (re your learn to quote comment)

I know many earning that much, and more. Frankly, I have never thought Thaivisa a very good representative sample of farang in Thailand. It is representative of teachers, retirees etc but very few expat salary types post here. There are 30 apartments in my building. Everyone of them has a farang family or farang family in it, and virtually all of them are working as diplomats or senior execs in international companies. I doubt if any of them have ever heard of TV, let alone post on it.

Which are you?

I'm not sure if you're asking me or Bendix I think the implication was any "reasonable" westerner would have this salary but I would say this was not the norm for most westerners maybe the top few% of earners?

My salary varies I am not a teacher or retiree I'm self employed . On average I would say approximately £5000 a month which by no means is in the 1.4 million baht in 2 months type of job but is plenty enough for me.

[think_too_mut]

Really well at 1.4 million each I would love to meet those westerners earning that in a couple of months? Doctors in the Uk maybe on this sort of money at a push.

Bar girls eh sheeeeeeeesh you sure know your stuff dont you!!

Step 1: there are at least 5 people on this board that earn that kind of money in BKK. OK, maybe 3 months salary, not everyone can make it in 2. And not everyone would trash 1.4 mil baht on 34sqm room.

Step 2: when we are talking real estate in BKK, how many have 34 sqm rooms as their ideal of property?

Not only here, but in real life, in general?

Step 1: learn to quote.

Your implication is that MANY westerners can afford this amount in 2 months which is clearly wrong even in the west people earning this sort of money in 2 months would be very very small.

Stop making bones of 34sqm rooms.

Even my favorite example and my good friend, Gunter, a tattooed, beer bellied, overweight, bald and in his mid-50s, sheet metal worker from Dresden with alcohol problems can afford, easily, 1 or more of those 34sqm rooms.

And yes, they rent well because they are a necessity, people have to live somewhere and they are affordable.

A friend in Pattaya, built (on his wife's land) a 10 room (2 levels x 5 rooms) "building" somewhere in Pattaya. All 10 rooms are never empty.

Each room (as your 34sqm) is 2000B per month + utilities. One was rented to a farang who was using it as a store room for suitcases, bikes, junk.

The whole "building" was 4 mil baht to erect and now he has 20K baht per month return. After maintenance, it's a meager 4% something ROI.

If there would be any strategy to employ for living off rental, it would be buying 5-6, 10 rooms like that around BKK at 300-400K and renting them out. They could be dumps, slums whatever but rental income is almost assured.

They are easy to sell (all Thai world) and even someone like my wife said it's better to have 5 x 300K rooms to rent them out rather than 1 proper condo of 8 mil that is unrentable and unsellable.

That brings us from Dunkin Donuts zone of real estate back to the topic. Surge of condo prices, but not of 34sqm rooms.

[bkkjames]

Really well at 1.4 million each I would love to meet those westerners earning that in a couple of months? Doctors in the Uk maybe on this sort of money at a push.

Bar girls eh sheeeeeeeesh you sure know your stuff dont you!!

Step 1: there are at least 5 people on this board that earn that kind of money in BKK. OK, maybe 3 months salary, not everyone can make it in 2. And not everyone would trash 1.4 mil baht on 34sqm room.

Step 2: when we are talking real estate in BKK, how many have 34 sqm rooms as their ideal of property?

Not only here, but in real life, in general?

Step 1: learn to quote.

Your implication is that MANY westerners can afford this amount in 2 months which is clearly wrong even in the west people earning this sort of money in 2 months would be very very small. Now your saying 3 keep moving the goal posts.

So you're telling me many westerners earn about 700000 baht per month??? I dont think so.

I dont think this board is representative of "many wetserners" typical salaries even if you know of 5 here that still leaves another 62000 members that dont, some may earn more but the majority will be earning a lot less.

Step 3 learn to get step 1 and 2 first then put step 3 not step 1 again .... bit silly this nitpicking isnt it? (re your learn to quote comment)

I know many earning that much, and more. Frankly, I have never thought Thaivisa a very good representative sample of farang in Thailand. It is representative of teachers, retirees etc but very few expat salary types post here. There are 30 apartments in my building. Everyone of them has a farang family or farang family in it, and virtually all of them are working as diplomats or senior execs in international companies. I doubt if any of them have ever heard of TV, let alone post on it.

Which are you?

I'm not sure if you're asking me or Bendix I think the implication was any "reasonable" westerner would have this salary but I would say this was not the norm for most westerners maybe the top few% of earners?

My salary varies I am not a teacher or retiree I'm self employed . On average I would say approximately £5000 a month which by no means is in the 1.4 million baht in 2 months type of job but is plenty enough for me.

I was asking Bendix mate.

[LivinLOS]

11.7m in today's market is not much (I assume it is a 2 bed, largish size, something around 110 sqm) and by the time it gets completed, hopefully the building will not be too tainted and will get finished at an ok level of quality, with that location you should end up making a capital gain of at least 20% or so.

There is little chance of 2009 though, I'd guess 2011 more likely.

Another great bangkok condo profit.. Maybe possibly perhaps if all goes well making 20% over 4 or so years..

Thats if it ever finishes.

[LivinLOS]

If you really believe that property is never going to go up then why not short sell every property fund you can find forever?

In roundabout trades I have done.. When I told people in 05 and 06 that the housing bubble was bursting and financials would take a bath people were quick to ridicule and the mantra 'property never goes down' was repeated all over.. Now which one of us cleaned up with a few 100% returns and which one is trying to make out things are ok or breaking even ??

And why won't anyone do that forever? Because the entire western world financing system for the last 500 years is built on the idea of supply and demand.... with a growing developing population and thus growing demand.

Its partly supply and dmeand from a growing population but its far far more paper money destruction created by governments printing money.

Pre 1913 1 USD equivalent had held 1USD purchasing power for a couple hundred years (actually gained about 25%) essentially there was no inflation.. Since the introduction of the FED the USD is now worth a couple of cents per dollar less than 100 years later. That destruction of purchasing power is the reason why property is seen to appreciate, the the falling purchasing power of money in nominal terms (mostly) NOT the rising price of real estate in inflation adjusted terms !!! A house has to be afforded by the person who resides in it, so a middle class home can only be a function of the amount a middle class worker can pay.

We have had a 15 year run of cheap credit and rampant speculation globally.. The credit is now departing and I will hazard that if interest rates go back to historical averages up in the 10% range, or have a volkeresque spike to get inflation under control to the 15% peaks the rubble from the global real estate boom will be one to witness for this generation.

[LivinLOS]

My question to the rest is this. I've been renting for 2.5 years now (donated about 1M baht or $30k USD). I'm thinking to find a place for 4-5M and just use it to live in. Not making money. Even if I sell it at what I paid for it in 3-4 years, i've lived for free which is better than renting.

What does everything think of that? Of course, I'd like to make return, but not loosing is also a win too right?

So your get 0 return on your assets ?? How the hel_l is that ?? I have been doing 30 - 40% the last few years (OK I admit thats good returns but I work at it).. Even NZ banks will give you nearly 10.. GBP will give 7%.. Thats just a regular bank account !!

So now you place your 5m in the bank and get just a paltry 10% per annum.. Thats 500K per year (compounding).. Or 1.25m (not compounded) for your '2.5 years renting'.. So buy buying, and losing even a paltry rate of return, your paying your rent and generating an extra 250k. And while doing it, your money isnt tied up, it can be moved or liquidated at a phone call, it can be instantly moved into different asset classes, its not in a 3rd world country in an illiquid asset.

Dont people consider the value of money and returns gained on cash assets when you look at renting being 'dead money' ??

I look at buying or building a villa here.. Something in the 20 - 30m range I guess.. Thats going to lose me something like 5 - 10 million per year in lost return (or would have easily in the last 3 - 4 years) on my assets.. I can rent one hel_l of a nice place for 500 - 800k per month !!! I rented a 25m baht home for 70k per month, now in a 15m home for 45k per month, my return on invested assets is about 10x what my 'wasted money' is in rent.

[LivinLOS]

Yes, my current rent is 'dead money' givin the 0% chance of making anything on it. I invest my money but the market is tough right now, so i'll be lucky to get 10% this year (some risks didn't pay off yet).

Sorry to hear it.. Tho the buy and hold general equity has been an obviously dead trade for a few years now.. No surprises there.. As the rampant money creation was bound to feed inflation just look at everything rise.. I mean gold, silver, coffee, corn, wheat, oil, etc etc etc.. Its been an easy market to ride those.

You mentioned NZ/GB bank accounts. One would take big currency risks and also have to be a citizen of that country to open an account no? As a Canadian, I've seen the Canadian dollar go from $1 USD = $1.60 CDN about 4 years ago, to $1 USD = $0.98 CDN. That's a huge risk, so I'm not sure about the bank account idea you mentioned.

No you dont need to be a resident.. And you dont see any currency risk in holding whatever currency you have ??? Why is it people think thier home country currency is a riskless baseline and other ones are high risk ??

One assumes that making a decent 10-15% rate on their money per year is easy.

I would be fairly disappointed if I did only that..

Edited July 30, 2008 by LivinLOS

[thaihome]

Another multi page thread on the risk and reward of buying property in Bangkok. One thing that puzzles me, is people posting the a crash in values as already occurred in Bangkok. Can one of you making such posts, please point to specific developments that have lost value in the past few months signify some sort of crash? I do not dispute that the peak may be close and some re-evaluation may take place that will catch up some of the weaker developers, but so far the only evidence presented is that not every unit in many completed buildings has the lights on at night.

As far as class A office space, suggest someone try and find 3k+ sq meters right now and see how little is actually available.

If you say downturn is coming for years on end, you will be right eventually. I still don’t think we are there yet, so you all just keep on saying it. History is on your side.

TH

[zorro1]

Another multi page thread on the risk and reward of buying property in Bangkok. One thing that puzzles me, is people posting the a crash in values as already occurred in Bangkok. Can one of you making such posts, please point to specific developments that have lost value in the past few months signify some sort of crash? I do not dispute that the peak may be close and some re-evaluation may take place that will catch up some of the weaker developers, but so far the only evidence presented is that not every unit in many completed buildings has the lights on at night.

As far as class A office space, suggest someone try and find 3k+ sq meters right now and see how little is actually available.

If you say downturn is coming for years on end, you will be right eventually. I still don't think we are there yet, so you all just keep on saying it. History is on your side.

TH

I have been saying exactly that for ages. Problem is you get people hijacking threads and confusing the topic, being real estate and not 40 or 50 % returns offshore which has nothing to do with the ops post. Of course non of these guys can prove it which only makes things even more confusing .I don't know of any recent developments in BKK that have taken a downturn anywhere.

[lardy]

Really well at 1.4 million each I would love to meet those westerners earning that in a couple of months? Doctors in the Uk maybe on this sort of money at a push.

Bar girls eh sheeeeeeeesh you sure know your stuff dont you!!

Step 1: there are at least 5 people on this board that earn that kind of money in BKK. OK, maybe 3 months salary, not everyone can make it in 2. And not everyone would trash 1.4 mil baht on 34sqm room.

Step 2: when we are talking real estate in BKK, how many have 34 sqm rooms as their ideal of property?

Not only here, but in real life, in general?

Step 1: learn to quote.

Your implication is that MANY westerners can afford this amount in 2 months which is clearly wrong even in the west people earning this sort of money in 2 months would be very very small.

Stop making bones of 34sqm rooms.

Even my favorite example and my good friend, Gunter, a tattooed, beer bellied, overweight, bald and in his mid-50s, sheet metal worker from Dresden with alcohol problems can afford, easily, 1 or more of those 34sqm rooms.

And yes, they rent well because they are a necessity, people have to live somewhere and they are affordable.

A friend in Pattaya, built (on his wife's land) a 10 room (2 levels x 5 rooms) "building" somewhere in Pattaya. All 10 rooms are never empty.

Each room (as your 34sqm) is 2000B per month + utilities. One was rented to a farang who was using it as a store room for suitcases, bikes, junk.

The whole "building" was 4 mil baht to erect and now he has 20K baht per month return. After maintenance, it's a meager 4% something ROI.

If there would be any strategy to employ for living off rental, it would be buying 5-6, 10 rooms like that around BKK at 300-400K and renting them out. They could be dumps, slums whatever but rental income is almost assured.

They are easy to sell (all Thai world) and even someone like my wife said it's better to have 5 x 300K rooms to rent them out rather than 1 proper condo of 8 mil that is unrentable and unsellable.

That brings us from Dunkin Donuts zone of real estate back to the topic. Surge of condo prices, but not of 34sqm rooms.

The difference is mine rent for 14000 baht upwards per month and are not inhabited by bar girls or your assumptions on 34m2 rooms but by Thais with reasonable jobs many with extremely good Englsih and who care about the condos they live in and with a very strong committee. I havent seen your mate "Fritz" slobbing out there yet. PS mine are only 30m2 probably horrifies you even more.

[think_too_mut]

The difference is mine rent for 14000 baht upwards per month and are not inhabited by bar girls or your assumptions on 34m2 rooms but by Thais with reasonable jobs many with extremely good Englsih and who care about the condos they live in and with a very strong committee. I havent seen your mate "Fritz" slobbing out there yet. PS mine are only 30m2 probably horrifies you even more.

No shit? Who are you finding to rent at that price?

It's half the value of what studios go for in my building (at BTS).

Those little ones arre 2.7 mil and rent for 15K, utilities paid directly to suppliers no markup, student kids of rich parents from the provinces, good cars.

Neither you can meet many of people like my fiend Fritz there - he could not afford 2.7mil 32sqm, his max is about 1.3 mil.

[steveromagnino]

I asked a well known architecture firm what they knew of the Trendy, and their comment was that a number of laws were broken/stretched in its redevelopment which may or may not become apparent - this isn't saying much as there are plenty of buildings that stretch laws here!

I asked about repossession for contractors, and his comment was that legally the contractor might be able to seek redress in the courts to repossess, but practically it would be more likely to just go in and swoop their assets at a time when the security was not stopping them from access to the site.

So....nothing really to add.

LivinLOS - I asked the person raising the issue of long term vs. shortterm why would you not PERMANENTLY continue to short sell property if you really felt it was never going to go up again EVER - your answer is perfectly clear; you also like almost everyone else believe that short term or even medium term believe that property is overvalued.

I agree with you, liquidity is great, however no need to stretch the truth - please advise which financial institutions are paying 'almost 10%' in NZ and then address the financial risks involved with dealing with them e.g. Bridgecorp or Hanover. Besides which is isn't 'almost 10%' as you haven't factored in tax OR the currency loss as the NZD sinks... my mum is getting about 9.1% I think with a NZ bank (National if i recall correctly) so I agree with you, BUT you can't just assume everyone can get that.

I would not like to point fingers at 'who says what' with regards to investments, the only things I have ever been bullish about no TV are LPN and Precious Shipping. Unlike your little play, I believe in long term value creation, and these 2 Thai companies have that in spades. So, no I have no idea who you are talking to in the comment 'which one of us cleaned up with a few 100% returns and which one is trying to make out things are ok or breaking even ??'

100% return by buying condos in Sala Daeng 4 years ago; well not quite, but 50% return is most certainly the case for virtually anyone having bought in a decent quality project such as The Park, Legend, Royal Sala Daeng.

So....I don't quite see blood on the streets just yet. I also don't disagree with the easy credit comment with regards to USA, but that's because I'm not an American so I don't see the world revolving soley around Wall Street. Definitely we are going to see some firesales in parts of the world (and parts of BKK). I just don't see complete meltdown for a generation. I guess that's partly because I've never seen it before in my lifetime and nor did my parents in their generation either.

Who knows? Maybe Jared Diamond is right ;-)

[bkkjames]

Another multi page thread on the risk and reward of buying property in Bangkok. One thing that puzzles me, is people posting the a crash in values as already occurred in Bangkok. Can one of you making such posts, please point to specific developments that have lost value in the past few months signify some sort of crash? I do not dispute that the peak may be close and some re-evaluation may take place that will catch up some of the weaker developers, but so far the only evidence presented is that not every unit in many completed buildings has the lights on at night.

As far as class A office space, suggest someone try and find 3k+ sq meters right now and see how little is actually available.

If you say downturn is coming for years on end, you will be right eventually. I still don’t think we are there yet, so you all just keep on saying it. History is on your side.

TH

You mean the one's that have finished or the one's that have stopped construction (see The Regent)?

As for Grade A office space, true not much currently available at the sizes you mention but then again, not much demand unless you can give me examples of companies who are looking but can't find any.