Naam Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 Why Is The Baht Still Strong?another interest hike by the BOT yesterday. Does this mean it will continue to rise against the pound? interest hike would be long term or short term results? as im planning to transfer money in around 4 weeks time, concerned it might continue to rise against the pound... You can talk about pounds and baht if you want, but it's all about the $USD. Next stop for the GBP is $USD 1.75. You can discern for yourself what that may mean for your GPB:THB exchange. THB/GBP 75? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 Maybe the Baht is being used by investment funds as a proxy for Chinese Yuan or RMB which they can't buy. This sound pretty weak to me, but my currency guy suggested it. looks like your "currency guy" doesn't know that nearly any amount of CNY (Yuan) can be bought and sold via NDFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 (edited) Why Is The Baht Still Strong?another interest hike by the BOT yesterday. Does this mean it will continue to rise against the pound? interest hike would be long term or short term results? as im planning to transfer money in around 4 weeks time, concerned it might continue to rise against the pound... You can talk about pounds and baht if you want, but it's all about the $USD. Next stop for the GBP is $USD 1.75. You can discern for yourself what that may mean for your GPB:THB exchange. THB/GBP 75? It's toast. Any semblance of support it had it's falling through with nary a pause. These charts don't reflect todays action: Intermediate term expanding triangle: http://www.eyield.co.uk/myarea/introductio...ng_triangle.htm The question is, have we seen point "c" or "e". I think probably the latter. Long term rising wedge: http://www.eyield.co.uk/myarea/introductio...ising_wedge.gif Again, has it seen point "c" or "e". Again, I think it's the latter. Could be wrong, maybe. Or is it 1992 all over again? Edited September 1, 2008 by lannarebirth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beginner Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 [It's toast. Any semblance of support it had it's falling through with nary a pause. These charts don't reflect todays action: Intermediate term expanding triangle: Again, has it seen point "c" or "e". Again, I think it's the latter. Could be wrong, maybe. Or is it 1992 all over again? lannarebirth, For the benefit of those of us who are not familiar with FX charts and analysis. What exactly 'is toast"? Do you mean the pound or the baht or what? Why do charts with names attached ie 'expanding triangle' give any indication of future events. They merely describe in a graphical form what has taken place so far. Which chartists predicted recent volatility in the markets from their charts alone? Isn't it just a form of fortune telling or voodoo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangyai Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 Why Is The Baht Still Strong?another interest hike by the BOT yesterday. Does this mean it will continue to rise against the pound? interest hike would be long term or short term results? as im planning to transfer money in around 4 weeks time, concerned it might continue to rise against the pound... You can talk about pounds and baht if you want, but it's all about the $USD. Next stop for the GBP is $USD 1.75. You can discern for yourself what that may mean for your GPB:THB exchange. I agree, the dollar rate has improved lately and the Thai baht is heavily influenced by this. IMHO I would not be surprised to see something like a 4-5% devaluation of the baht within a year if things carry on as they are. The tourist industry was already in the doldrums before all the political trouble. If they want to lure tourists back they will need to take drastic measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highchol Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 [It's toast. Any semblance of support it had it's falling through with nary a pause. These charts don't reflect todays action: Intermediate term expanding triangle: Again, has it seen point "c" or "e". Again, I think it's the latter. Could be wrong, maybe. Or is it 1992 all over again? lannarebirth, For the benefit of those of us who are not familiar with FX charts and analysis. What exactly 'is toast"? Do you mean the pound or the baht or what? Why do charts with names attached ie 'expanding triangle' give any indication of future events. They merely describe in a graphical form what has taken place so far. Which chartists predicted recent volatility in the markets from their charts alone? Isn't it just a form of fortune telling or voodoo? voodoo! are you being serious?.......now where did I put that pin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 [It's toast. Any semblance of support it had it's falling through with nary a pause. These charts don't reflect todays action: Intermediate term expanding triangle: Again, has it seen point "c" or "e". Again, I think it's the latter. Could be wrong, maybe. Or is it 1992 all over again? lannarebirth, For the benefit of those of us who are not familiar with FX charts and analysis. What exactly 'is toast"? Do you mean the pound or the baht or what? Oh, it's a slang expression, meaning it's fuc_ked. The pound. Why do charts with names attached ie 'expanding triangle' give any indication of future events. They merely describe in a graphical form what has taken place so far. Which chartists predicted recent volatility in the markets from their charts alone? Charts are graphical representations of buying behavior at given prices over time. Some patterns are indicative of certain probablistic outcomes, but there is no 100% certain way to know what may happen next. Isn't it just a form of fortune telling or voodoo? I wouldn't say so. I think it compares better to odds making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 Ok guys the basic answer is the BOT sell dollars and buys baht to keep it strong. There no fundementals of economic's involved. It manipulation of the Baht. The Pound is lower now against the dollar and that is why you are getting less Baht. As a dollar holder I have been going through this for at least two years, you guys are just starting to see it. I asked this same question two years ago as to the dollar. I heard all kinds of theories but this explantion that I gave is what is happening. Don't look for the answers in the Thai Government or economics it has defied logic for two years. In the end your money is worht less and you get less on the rate of exchange. Maybe you will get lucky and the Thai's will shoot themsleves in the foot. Someone came up with the magic thought that the world economies have decoupled, I would say off hand they were wrong. Yesterday all the talk was of the U.S, today the U.K. Thailand will have it's turn. Hang in there guys it won't be forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 The basic answer is, that the baht is not still strong (it's fallen about 14% aagainst the $), but the GBP has substantially weakened. if the baht were to strengthen (which it might), that's when the trouble starts. Fortunately, GBP holders are getting nice deposit returns at present. When the $USD fell, it was the deposit returns falling that hurt much more than the currency depreciation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 (edited) Absolutely agree. With an (artificially) weak Baht currently fetching around 60 against a (naturally) weak Pound one can only guess what will happen when the UK starts to slash interest rates and the Pound becomes even weaker. Compound that with the chance that the Baht will strengthen at some point and the net result is carnage for holders of unhedged Pounds. Edited September 1, 2008 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericjt Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 What's an NDF? Thanks -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 (edited) Don't doubt the 14% but from where has it risen, 32. A very years ago it was 44 Hedge funds it wasn't that long ago that the baht was attractive to hedge funds. The dollar was trouble and still is. There was money to be made in Baht. The rode that out and when things changed they do just exactly what they should have done pulled out. I still remember article that exporters couldn't surrvived and were begging the BOT to let the baht fall. Factories were closing people were losing jobs. the BOt was buying dollars like there was no tomorrow they slowed it down. ( manipulating the baht) Today in a relatively short period of time, it has went into the 34 range from 32. The BOT has made statement in the both the Bangkok Post and The Nation that are selling dollars to keep the Baht strong. I don't dream this stuff up. Saying it lost 14% is true but it does not reflect how much it gained before that fall so you would have a clear picture of what is happening. The dollar has a long ways to go before it has recovered if it ever does. tth baht is stringer today against the dollar then three years ago. It sure isn't because of the wonderful investment atmosphire here. In the same time frame we havn't form a Domacrtic Goverment, to a Military coup, back to Democartic Governement that is currently under the siege. So was it the economy here or was it manipluation for a desired effect. I'm not complaining I just recognize it for what it is. Thailand is selling dollars and buying Baht just like it said it was doing. To keep the baht at it's current level so there is not a drastic fall. Could you imagine what th exchange rate would be today if they were not doing just that. That baht falls to fast and it will be another disaster, question is how long can they do this? I have seen a bit of an increase long over due for my bank account. I don't envy you guys cause it was very long time before I saw that. The numbers they put on these exchage rates are not the real facor the real factor is what has happened to your usable income. In reality what you are dealing with inflation and and depreciating pucharsing power. Cost have risen far beyond anything I expected in such a short period of time. My retirement has a 3% COLA hasn't even came close to keeping up. Between the loss of the dollar value and inflation. Example four years ago I could fill my bike tank with fuel for 160 baht, today around 450. That's after cost came down from the recent fiasco we went through. I was fortunate I had the extra money to ride it out, could have dropped to 24 and I would have been able to get by. Not everyone is in that situation I feel for them. They are real people not somebody playing the market, with extra money. I wish you guys all the luck in the world So right back where I started the BOT is manipilating the Baht, thier words not mine. Edited September 1, 2008 by ray23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 I might have that 14% wrong, but that's what my datafeed says. It was screwed up bigtime by all that onshore/offshore nonsense though. Data providers need to trash all that "offshore" data or the charts will never be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 What's an NDF?Thanks -- NDF = Non-Deliverable Forward http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/ndf.asp LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaoPo Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 You can talk about pounds and baht if you want, but it's all about the $USD. Next stop for the GBP is $USD 1.75. You can discern for yourself what that may mean for your GPB:THB exchange. $ 1,75 is certainly in sight: U.K. Pound Falls Below $1.80 for First Time Since April 2006 Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The British pound fell below $1.80 for the first time since April 2006 after Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said the U.K. faced the worst economic slump in 60 years. Rest: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...wE&refer=uk LaoPo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erikr_ Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 Baht is still 50 against the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sfokevin Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 The start of the week sees the baht leaving the 34/USD mark and approaching the 35 mark faster than an "Unusually Rich Politician" can say "State of Emergency"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiang mai Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 (edited) It's 05:30 and I'm seeing 1.7874 against GBP so it appears to be breaking the 1.80 barrier - hard to imagine there will not be a good sized correction soon as folks start to book profit. Edited September 1, 2008 by chiang mai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 I think your 14% is pretty darn close over a six month preiod. It has been in the last six weeks or so that the dollar got active. although I understand the manipulation and why it makes is very difficult to predict where it will go. For a period of time you could see thier target was, 32 then 33, now it's looking like 34. If they don't interfer to much it will go to 35 quickly. At some point it seems to me like they were saying that 35 was good for exports. But they said that about 40 in the beginning. If there export figures are correct, nothing really seems to be hurting exports now. Possibly the buinesses that needed 40 have already closed I don't know. Read an article yesterday that 50% of the Japenese who had scheduled vacation's in Phucket cancelled thier resevations, that is the one area they do pay attention to. As Mr. Samak said thats the rice bowl. Perhaps they are backing off letting the baht weaken so it looks better to tourist who knows. The country is in more turmoil then I have seen at the moment in eight years. So there are lots of wild cards out there.. Where they stand today I don't think they are used to, being where they where they are today. When I first came you could do 90- day runs and stay forever no one cared as long as you were bringing money in. That changed, I beleive they really thought they had that point where nothing could hurt them. Hedge funds were pumping money into the country like never before. Big investments in the stock market. A lot of that money has been taken out of the country for better places in the investors eyes. Predicting what will happen with the Baht at the moment, I think the best you can hope for is an educated guess. You Brits are in the same boat as us Americans now which means you have to watch more then just the baht to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted September 1, 2008 Share Posted September 1, 2008 The basic answer is, that the baht is not still strong (it's fallen about 14% aagainst the $), but the GBP has substantially weakened. if the baht were to strengthen (which it might), that's when the trouble starts. Fortunately, GBP holders are getting nice deposit returns at present. When the $USD fell, it was the deposit returns falling that hurt much more than the currency depreciation. the same applies now to GBP and (looking at U.K.'s economy) for many months to come. http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/uk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudhopper Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 Wow that UK yield curve is really bizarre! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 the political situation weighs heavily on the Baht (USD/THB 34.34, TT rate). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 Wow that UK yield curve is really bizarre! the rather narrow y-axis of the graph exaggerates the picture quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Naam Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 Wow that UK yield curve is really bizarre! the rather narrow y-axis of the graph exaggerates the picture quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 One piece of the puzzle where it goes from here, who knows. "Thailand Declares State of Emergency, Clashes Kill 1 (Update2) By Daniel Ten Kate and Rattaphol Onsanit Sept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej declared a state of emergency after street clashes in Bangkok early today left one dead and 43 injured, winning army support to help end four months of protests against his government. ``We can't let the protests go on,'' Samak said at a press briefing at military headquarters in the Thai capital. ``I am acting to defuse the problem.'' Pro-government demonstrators wielding knives, swords and metal bars earlier marched to Government House to confront the People's Alliance for Democracy, which has occupied Samak's office compound for a week. Samak's supporters broke through two lines of unarmed police before reaching the anti-government protesters, who charged at them with weapons and fired gunshots. Samak's decree is a change of strategy from his previous ``soft and gentle'' approach to the demonstrators who accuse him of working on behalf of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The People's Alliance is seeking a government that doesn't include allies of the former premier, who fled to the U.K. on Aug. 11 to avoid corruption charges. ``The situation should improve now,'' Supreme Military Commander Boonsrang Niumpradi told Channel 3 after the order was issued. The anti-government protesters may now ``be willing to negotiate,'' he said. Leaders of the People's Alliance, camped among their 12,000 supporters -- which include women and children -- at Government House have vowed to stay until the premier quits. The state of emergency bans gatherings of more than five people and gives the army chief authority to enforce the order. The decree ``will be revoked in the next few days,'' Samak told reporters. ``It won't last long.'' `Continue to Fight' ``We will continue to fight,'' Chamlong Srimuang, a People's Alliance leader and retired general, told supporters, according to NBT television. ``The government has done too much damage to the country.'' The pro-government supporters started gathering two days ago at Sanam Luang, a field a few miles from Government House. Comprising Bangkok taxi drivers and people from northeast Thailand, Thaksin's political base, the group decried the government's peaceful handling of the People's Alliance so far. ``We need to take back Government House,'' Phakhaphong Anuphongrat, a 44 year-old small-business owner who joined the pro-government side, said after the clashes. ``The people don't want to fight, but the government can't do anything.'' Gunshots Fired Police officers easily gave way to the pro-government protesters last night, taking pictures on their mobile phones as they passed by. After the two sides clashed and the gunshots were fired, the police moved in again to separate the two sides and closed surrounding roads. At least two people were shot, one in the chest, TNN Channel reported. The man who was killed, a pro-government supporter, died from other wounds, it said. Financial markets will open today. Thailand's benchmark SET Index has fallen almost 23 percent since the campaign to oust Samak began on May 25. To contact the reporter on this story: Rattaphol Onsanit in Bangkok at [email protected]; Daniel Ten Kate in Bangkok at [email protected]. Last Updated: September 1, 2008 22:41 EDT " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
britmaveric Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 On to 35??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 Central bank prevents baht from weakening Enter your search terms Submit search form Web www.bangkokpost.com They tried but failed this time "(BangkokPost.com) - The Bank of Thailand (BoT) intervened in the foreign exchange on Tuesday morning to halt further devaluation of Thai baht, according to deputy BoT governor on fiscal policy Ajana Waikwamdee. She said the baht was fluctuating and depreciating quickly after the government declared the state of emergency in Bangkok on Tuesday at 7am. The baht was valued at 34.50-34.54 baht per US dollar in the morning, and it closed on Monday at 34.30-34.34 baht to a dollar. It is an unfortunate event for Thailand to be in this predicament, since negative factors already exist overseas, according to Mrs Ajana. She said how the situation ends would influence the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but she hoped it would end peacefully. She said massive foreign capital outflow has not been reported, and it is not necessary to set up a capital reserve fund at the moment." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 As I said I don't make this stuff up, it what it is. "Central bank fails to halt baht drop The baht fell to a one-year low against the US dollar on Tuesday morning shortly after the prime minister declared a state of emergency, even though the Bank of Thailand intervened in the foreign exchange market. BoT deputy governor on fiscal policy Ajana Waikwamdee said the central bank began inervening right after the declaration of a state of emergency. She said the currency was "fluctuating", meaning falling. At mid-morning, the currency hit 34.52 against the dollar. By early afternoon, it had sunk to 34.58 as the BoT continued to pour foreign reserves in to try to stop the market. Mrs Ajana said she had not seen any "massive foreign capital outflow" and said it is not yet necessary to set up a capital reserve fund. The bottom also fell out of the Stock Exchange of Thailand. At the midday break, the SET Index had dropped 12.21 points to 663.01." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kadafi Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 The Central Bank continue to step in when they notice a sharp fall in the baht currency, can they continue to do this or will eventually the real cracks will appear and the baht will fall at a sharper rate...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ray23 Posted September 2, 2008 Share Posted September 2, 2008 There are so many things going on now that it would defy all logic for it keep it's strength. Having said that I have said it so many times in the past that I really have no idea. Persoanlly I don't see the problems to be short term problems. Will there be a time that it will be more prudent for the BOT to hold the funds for the future when harder times will come. I don't know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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