Thailand Tourism Decline To Exacerbate

[sabaijai]

I wonder if, back when American demonstrations were instrumental in forcing Nixon to resign, foreigners living in the USA expressed concern over tourism to the USA?

[Ulysses G.]

They might have if it would have hurt the U.S. economy anywhere close to what it could do to the Thai economy.

[Wrong Turn]

As if Thailand's tourism industry wasn't already in trouble, now this stupidity we've seen in the last few days.

However, this countries loss will only benefit the tourism industries of neighbouring countries such as Cambodia and Vietnam.

If you've invested in Thailand, start divesting or start preparing for losses.

Whenever there is a bump in the road there is a call to move funds out of Thailand. It all depends on what business a person is in.

Tourism will dip, temporarily, and then the fans of LOS will be returning. I wouldn't let any domestic issues keep me from coming.

As long as the airport is operating - I'm good to go.

[chiang mai]

I don't know the numbers but I seem to recall that tourism accounts for only 7% of Thai GDP, that's not the point though. The point is that the tourism industry here is the country's biggest source of employment with more people working in that industry than any other. The country can probably afford to take a hit on the financial side but none of us can afford such a large segment of the population to be unemployed because that spells big problems.

[bkkjames]

I don't know the numbers but I seem to recall that tourism accounts for only 7% of Thai GDP, that's not the point though. The point is that the tourism industry here is the country's biggest source of employment with more people working in that industry than any other. The country can probably afford to take a hit on the financial side but none of us can afford such a large segment of the population to be unemployed because that spells big problems.

Well said.

[chiang mai]

I doubt tourism numbers will fall significantly, if at all.

In fact, I would be willing to bet that they will increase.

Well the following link should have some bearing on things going forward. (Brits).

Warning for Brits

Also Prince Andrew has just cancelled his visit to Thailand due to security concerns, but he will visit Singapore and Malaysia?

Cheers, Rick

Geriatrickid , is this the type of government warning/advise you were talking about that could decrease tourism because the 'Warning' needs to be passed on by travel agencies ? Do you suppose/think this will be picked up and acted on by other countries ?

The British warning by the FCO is the standard boiler plate kind of stuff that they typically issue when something of significance is happening, it's all common sense stuff really. I understand that the Australian government has issued similar travel advisories.

[kmart]

I wonder if, back when American demonstrations were instrumental in forcing Nixon to resign, foreigners living in the USA expressed concern over tourism to the USA?

Probably, if their livelihoods were dependent on it.

[Maigo6]

As long as low income Farangs can come to Thailand and get cheaper prices for entertainment than they can elsewhere, they will keep coming.

The richer Farangs don't give a toss what they pay and where they pay it as long as they're safe.

So political turmoil may well have it's toll on a certain group of people, but the others will keep coming back for more till the Bars are closed down.

Edited September 2, 2008 by Maigo6

[bkkjames]

As long as low income Farangs can come to Thailand and get cheaper prices for entertainment than they can elsewhere, they will keep coming.

The richer Farangs don't give a toss what they pay and where they pay it as long as they're safe.

So political turmoil may well have it's toll on a certain group of people, but the others will keep coming back for more till the Bars are closed down.

So much for all of TAT's attempts to attract 'quality' tourists.

[madjbs]

I don't know the numbers but I seem to recall that tourism accounts for only 7% of Thai GDP,

Yep, thats about right

that's not the point though. The point is that the tourism industry here is the country's biggest source of employment with more people working in that industry than any other.

Completely wrong here though, tourism is nowhere near the biggest source of employment. That would be agriculture.

[Maigo6]

As long as low income Farangs can come to Thailand and get cheaper prices for entertainment than they can elsewhere, they will keep coming.

The richer Farangs don't give a toss what they pay and where they pay it as long as they're safe.

So political turmoil may well have it's toll on a certain group of people, but the others will keep coming back for more till the Bars are closed down.

So much for all of TAT's attempts to attract 'quality' tourists.

I was on the phonme today to a mate from UK who has no intention of cutting out his 4th trip to Thailand this year, he only asked if the bars were open and ' Bar entertainment was available '

As much as I personally dislike this attitude, I know for a fact that he would never again come to Thailand if he couldn't take advantage on what's on offer at bargain basement prices, and that includes the crowd he travels with.

The only thing that would ever stop him coming to Thailand would be a strict enforcement of the prostitution laws, or the prices going up to what they are in UK.

[zorro1]

Excellent idea! now you should do the right thing and lead by example. Make your next post from Phnom Penh.

I think anyone even just thinking about a move to Cambodia should log onto asiasentinal and read the uncontrolled article on the rapid growth and ease of setting up buisiness in that country , you are actualy welcomed to do so , plus a wide open visa plan .

I agree and many other places are offering sweet deals but they are not Thailand. I recently went to cambodia and it did nothing for me. Its very 3 world and the end of the road really. I found the beaches in sihanoukville way below Thai standard and the people a bit deppressing. The LOS It aint. Just my opinion

[chiang mai]

I don't know the numbers but I seem to recall that tourism accounts for only 7% of Thai GDP,

Yep, thats about right

that's not the point though. The point is that the tourism industry here is the country's biggest source of employment with more people working in that industry than any other.

Completely wrong here though, tourism is nowhere near the biggest source of employment. That would be agriculture.

Yes I would have thought that was the case also but not according to the article I read - cannot recall where I read it but as I recall it was an authoritative source thus we both now need to find some numbers from a reliable source to settle this difference of views.

[Bangyai]

I doubt tourism numbers will fall significantly, if at all.

I doubt if they do, it will ever be in the sector of tourists that Thailand could really do without.

Meaning who ? The Khao Sahn cheap charlies or the Pattaya sex tourists ? Some people would say there are too many pesky falangs here anyway and a drop in the numbers only benefits those who choose to stay. Hotels get desperate and room rates become ' negotiable ' etc etc. If its the malcontents that leave they won't be missed.

[madjbs]

Yes I would have thought that was the case also but not according to the article I read - cannot recall where I read it but as I recall it was an authoritative source thus we both now need to find some numbers from a reliable source to settle this difference of views.

http://www.ilo.org/public/english/region/a...ad/pub07-07.pdf

[jdinasia]

As if Thailand's tourism industry wasn't already in trouble, now this stupidity we've seen in the last few days.

However, this countries loss will only benefit the tourism industries of neighbouring countries such as Cambodia and Vietnam.

If you've invested in Thailand, start divesting or start preparing for losses.

You obviously haven't thought this through .....

1) This will likely not really affect Thailand's numbers BUT,

2) If it does, do not think for a minute that any neighboring country will be picking up the lost numbers. They don't have the infrastructure. Thailand is the destination around here, the rest are just side-trips.

[chiang mai]

Yes I would have thought that was the case also but not according to the article I read - cannot recall where I read it but as I recall it was an authoritative source thus we both now need to find some numbers from a reliable source to settle this difference of views.

http://www.ilo.org/public/english/region/a...ad/pub07-07.pdf

You found your data source well before me, I shall keep looking however. But after a quick scan of the source you provided I suspect we may be talking semantics here since the numbers are potentially very close. Your source uses data from 2004 as the most recent year wherein 42.3% are involved in agriculture and this number is in steady decline over the years of the survey. That same survey also shows 37.1% engaged in services and this number is increasing. There is a potential that staff engaged in services now exceeds those engaged in agriculture hence I can see where either viewpoint may potentially be correct. I will see what I can find.

[steveromagnino]

You found your data source well before me, I shall keep looking however. But after a quick scan of the source you provided I suspect we may be talking semantics here since the numbers are potentially very close. Your source uses data from 2004 as the most recent year wherein 42.3% are involved in agriculture and this number is in steady decline over the years of the survey. That same survey also shows 37.1% engaged in services and this number is increasing. There is a potential that staff engaged in services now exceeds those engaged in agriculture hence I can see where either viewpoint may potentially be correct. I will see what I can find.

Not semantics at all; the majority of people in services are not working in tourism.

- banks

- insurance

- accounting

- office staff

- hospitality e.g. restuarants staff NOT involved with tourism

Tourism is nowhere near the largest employer; I would have to look it up, but I suspect it is a huge catch all and includes internal tourism and travel as well of Thais within the kingdom and yet is still probably something like 1/4 at the absolute most of the employed in Thailand.

With a working population of say 40 m people, 16m in agriculture seems reasonable. I would have thought not more than 1m are engaged in direct tourism, and probably at absolute most 4-8m in indirect.

Have to know how to read stats.

Will get some data from NESDB, data is always a good thing.

And anyway.....the tourism is going to reduce by say 20-30% max and a huge amount is internal tourism....so yes its bad but hardly anything along the lines of SARS.

[madjbs]

Yes, exactly steveromagnino.

you can also look further down and see the breakdown of services. Hotel and restaurants account for only 6% of employment, and remember restaurants includes a lot of places not catering to tourists. So my guess (without any definite sources) would be that the total figure for tourism employment is around the 5% mark.

Oh and agriculture still provides more employment than all of the services combined, I will find another source for you if you don't believe me.

[Ulysses G.]

Tourism is nowhere near the largest employer; I would have to look it up, but I suspect it is a huge catch all and includes internal tourism and travel as well of Thais within the kingdom and yet is still probably something like 1/4 at the absolute most of the employed in Thailand.

And anyway.....the tourism is going to reduce by say 20-30% max and a huge amount is internal tourism....so yes its bad but hardly anything along the lines of SARS.

Tourism is still a HUGE money earner for Thailand and in general tourist jobs pay much better than agriculture. Tourism is already much lower than when SARS was around and this idiocy will reduce it even more.

Edited September 2, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[Hermano Lobo]

I'd like to know exactly what it is that 'Thailand's Tourism Decline' is going to 'Exacerbate'.

I'm also at a loss as to why the happenings of the last few days are regarded as 'stupidity' when for many they are seen as very positive signs of the struggles of a growing democracy.

---

The decline in tourism that Thailand is seeing (and before you rush elsewhere to invest, so is everywhere else) is due to the international economic downturn - It will not last.

Mr Humpty Go-kart/Richard Blaine , things must be slow at Rick's Club Americaine ?

I expect the downturn to last seven years.

Edited September 2, 2008 by Hermano Lobo

[madjbs]

Tourism is still a HUGE money earner for Thailand

about 6% of GDP, significant, but not huge.

and in general tourist jobs pay much better than agriculture.

True

Tourism is already much lower than when SARS was around and this idiocy will reduce it even more.

You haven't been paying attention. Tourist numbers are higher than ever, they are spending more than ever and total revenue is more than ever, even taking into account inflation (at the end of 2007).

Sorry if your business isn't doing so well, but it's not because there aren't any tourists around.

Edited September 2, 2008 by madjbs

[Maigo6]

Sorry if your business isn't doing so well, but it's not because there aren't any tourists around.

So you think blood on the streets will not have any effect on arrivals ?

You gotta be joking.

[chiang mai]

As I said I will do some digging to see what I can find but hey, we can all do without the insults, really not necessary at all.

[madjbs]

So you think blood on the streets will not have any effect on arrivals ?

You gotta be joking.

Numbers speak for themselves. In the short term arrival numbers will of course fall, but people will forget within weeks and it will be back to business as usual. Much like what happened after the coup, after the new year bombs and even after the tsunami (obviously that took slightly longer though).

Edited September 2, 2008 by madjbs

[Ulysses G.]

Sorry if your business isn't doing so well, but it's not because there aren't any tourists around.

My business is doing fine because of expat customers, but it would do even better IF there were more tourists around.

[madjbs]

You probably need to start stocking Asian books to attract the tourists these days

[Ulysses G.]

Thai books.

[sabaijai]

I wonder if, back when American demonstrations were instrumental in forcing Nixon to resign, foreigners living in the USA expressed concern over tourism to the USA?

Probably, if their livelihoods were dependent on it.

And do you think anyone listened to them?

[madjbs]

Just looking at the tourism stats, the major increases in numbers are coming from Oceania, South Asia and Europe (east and Russia). US tourist numbers seem to be falling slowly, East Asian (already 50% of tourists)rising slowly.

Edited September 2, 2008 by madjbs