Thailand Tourism Decline To Exacerbate

[madjbs]

That means that the 18,7 % must even be a lot higher....a LOT !

No it doesn't. Not at all. Think about it carefully. If you included all the people from all the other airports and border crossings, the growth figure could still be less, the same as or more than 18.7%. the stats show how much the numbers grew NOT the total amount.

[Ulysses G.]

Those claiming that tourism is booming, and that the latest bloodshed will have no effect, might like to read this...

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustr...K23003020080902

Who is claiming that the lastest blood shed wont have ANY effect? Not me...

You obviously don't read here very much if you think I'm rude. And yes, it does get a bit annoying debating with children.

Thanks for proving the point about being RUDE.

children= anyone who doesn't accept incorrect statistics that do not apply to the subject in dispute

Yeahh... international arrival numbers are completely irrelevant....... hahaha what a joke.

You know what they say, "Statistics are the science of producing unreliable facts from reliable figures", but figures from PATA are not even reliable. Anyway, International arrival numbers that don't include the period of time we are talking about - RIGHT NOW - have nothing to do with anything, but your pointless statistics are just a silly little side issue anyway.

You claim that tourism in Thailand will grow in the imminent future despite bloody riots in Bangkok and the world-wide economic slowdown and that is just plain unlikely, although there is a better chance if PAD go home now!

Edited September 4, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[dumball]

http://www.fas.org/faspir/pir0997.htm#coup

The last time I was in Cambodia - around 1997 - all the foreigners were fleeing the country and leaving their businesses behind - most did not return - because of all the political violence. That has never happened in Thailand.

There is a reason why Cambodia has to lure investors, but only the mentally challenged would actually apply!

aaaah, things have changed a bit since 1997.

It's now a great time to invest in Cambodia. on the up and gearing to pick up where Thailand is dropping off.

Let's face it. People still want to come to SE Asia but the Thai smiles are fading and the arrogance is increasing.

Cambodia is the new Thailand.

Not in the next 50 years if ever. Have you been there? Your really comparing Phnom Penh To BKK?

You infering tourists only come to BKK , there is more to a country than its capitol for many reasons .

[madjbs]

You claim that tourism in Thailand will grow in the imminent future despite bloody riots in Bangkok and the world-wide economic slowdown

For the 100th time, NO I DIDN'T.

I said:

As I said, we can probably expect a decrease now due to the bad news coverage, but if all of the other data is anything to go by, the numbers will bounce back in a month or two.

But it is still not decreasing, growth rates just slowed for the first half of 2007 due to the coup etc.. By the end of the year growth had returned to around 10%. They will probably slow again now, for a few months.

As I said before, the downturn in the economy will slow the growth numbers.

So we can expect a slight dip for the next month due to the current civil unrest (which I have already said), but why greater than all the civil unrest in the past?

If you look at all the data from previous "crisis" times, you see that the numbers are low for the month of the crisis and then bounce back to normal within a couple of months. Once the violence stops here, Thailand and PAD will vanish from the news and it will be back to business as usual.

Numbers speak for themselves. In the short term arrival numbers will of course fall,

Be done with your silly straw man arguments. All that you have proved in this thread is that you don't have a clue what you are on about.

Edited September 4, 2008 by madjbs

[Ulysses G.]

I doubt tourism numbers will fall significantly, if at all.

In fact, I would be willing to bet that they will increase.

You seem to have forgotten THIS one.

Fake statistics and blatant lies. What other "debating skills" do you have up your sleeve?

Edited September 4, 2008 by Ulysses G.

[dumball]

.. plus a wide open visa plan .

Is there anything official on Cambodia's visa plans .. like on an embassy website?

I only told you as it is on the ground , where it matters most , want to check out an embassy web site(chuckle-chuckle), be my guest , same as ANY Thai government postings on visas , your guess is as good as mine , dependant on where when and whom you may be applying to . You can obtain a full year visa in Cambodia at most travel agencies period , no hastle , no court of enquiry on grandmothers maiden name , where she is buried or if you just happen to be a millionare , deposit your passport with the appropriate fee and please come back tomorrow at 5 pm , thank you for your buisiness SIR and welcome to Cambodia .

What constitutes 'official' in Thailand any-way ?

[Wrong Turn]

I've been hearing talk and gossip about the end of days for foreigners, tourist, and investors in LOS, for many, many years.

And LOS, and expats and tourist, keep on chuggin' along.

And everything will keep chuggin' along.

These people that talk of the coming dire straits, don't even plan to leave nor do they pack their bags.

They stay. Like the rest of us. I don't expect any substantive changes in the mid or long-term. Yeah, maybe a couple of months will be slower than regular, but that's about it.

[Ulysses G.]

I would have agreed with you in the past, but this financial downturn seems like it could be the worst for a long, long time. That is why we don't need anything that is preventable making it even worse.

[madjbs]

I doubt tourism numbers will fall significantly, if at all.

In fact, I would be willing to bet that they will increase.

You seem to have forgotten THIS one.

Fake statistics and blatant lies. What other "debating skills" do you have up your sleeve?

Yes the TOTAL NUMBER of tourists will still increase over 2007 but the GROWTH RATE will become lower than before. If you can't understand basic principles you shouldn't bother to debate them.

The hole you are in is so deep I can hardly hear you anymore. You are a complete joke when it comes to discussing anything serious. You haven't produced a shred of evidence and you just ignore the RELEVANT STATS. What a complete joke....

BTW, TAT are predicting a growth rate of about 5% this year.

Edited September 4, 2008 by madjbs

[Ulysses G.]

You claim that tourism in Thailand will grow in the imminent future despite bloody riots in Bangkok and the world-wide economic slowdown

For the 100th time, NO I DIDN'T.

I doubt tourism numbers will fall significantly, if at all.

In fact, I would be willing to bet that they will increase.

You seem to have forgotten THIS one.

Liar, liar pants on fire.

Just drop the B.S. dude.

[Ulysses G.]

BTW, TAT are predicting a growth rate of about 5% this year.

[madjbs]

Yeah I'm sure you know better

[LaoPo]

BTW, TAT are predicting a growth rate of about 5% this year.

Link please.

LaoPo

[klikster]

.. plus a wide open visa plan .

Is there anything official on Cambodia's visa plans .. like on an embassy website?

I only told you as it is on the ground , where it matters most , want to check out an embassy web site(chuckle-chuckle), be my guest , same as ANY Thai government postings on visas , your guess is as good as mine , dependant on where when and whom you may be applying to . You can obtain a full year visa in Cambodia at most travel agencies period , no hastle , no court of enquiry on grandmothers maiden name , where she is buried or if you just happen to be a millionare , deposit your passport with the appropriate fee and please come back tomorrow at 5 pm , thank you for your buisiness SIR and welcome to Cambodia .

What constitutes 'official' in Thailand any-way ?

What you said was ".. , plus a wide open visa plan .", which to me means something organized and documented.

I'm glad you find my serious question so amusing. I prefer to rely on something more substantial than maybes and taken chances. Quite a number of consular websites, Thailand included, do have the information on websites. FYI, I have had "retirement" visas, renewed annually, all legal since '97. And I'm not a millionaire.

BTW, what matters most to any serious expat is legality and consistency, just my opinion.

Edited September 4, 2008 by klikster

[madjbs]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/rea...+lowers+tourism

If the current events get worse then maybe it will be lower than what they projected at that point.

[LaoPo]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/rea...+lowers+tourism

If the current events get worse then maybe it will be lower than what they projected at that point.

Thank you for the link !

This "excuse" from TAT is a real joke ! But at the same time they're trying to find a way out for their previous projections and enormous growth predictions. Don't forget that their jobs are at stake.

It's also a joke that the number of 15 Million tourists will be reached in 2008; that would be a rise of 4,16% versus 2007 and I will leave the 2 Million "tourists" from Malaysia, Myanmar and Laos out of the discussion, ok ?

It is a BIG JOKE that TAT can't even do their maths.....

15 Million tourists for 2008 and they expect 16 Million for 2009 but they also say: It targets 3.3 % growth for 2009.

3.3% from 15 Million = 495.000...Total 15.495.000 and not 16 Million...

TAT lowers tourism projection

By Suchat Sritama

The Nation

Published on July 8, 2008

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has sharply cut its projection for the number of international visitors and tourism revenue next year due to soaring oil prices, which are discouraging international travel and have led to cuts in inbound flights.

It targets only a 3.3-per-cent growth in the number of international visitors in 2009, a sharp downward revision from the original projection of 10 per cent. From a projected 17 million, or a 10-per-cent growth, the TAT expects only 16 million travellers to visit the country. About 15 million visitors are expected in 2008.

The TAT also halved it revenue-growth projection for next year to 5 per cent, though spending per head per trip is expected to increase from Bt38,760 this year to Bt39,375. Revenue projection for this year is Bt600 billion The authority is maintaining next year's domestic projection of 87 million trips with revenue of Bt407 billion.

Deputy governor for international marketing Santichai Eua-Chongprasit said the three key negative factors were oil prices, world economic uncertainty and fewer flights into the Kingdom.

He said the travel industry, especially long-haul routes, would be affected as the oil price may climb to US$200 (Bt6,800) per barrel.

TIT

LaoPo

[geriatrickid]

I'm sorry, but something is getting lost in the translation as they say.

Pattaya News One reports; On Wednesday we spoke with Khun Niti, Director of the Region 3 office of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) regarding the effect on tourism in relation to the political crisis now occurring in Bangkok and other Provinces around Thailand. . Khun Niti told us that official figures for Pattaya indicate a drop in Tourism by approximately 20% from this time last year. The TAT suggest that the High Season will also see a significant reduction of tourists coming to Pattaya regardless of whether a solution to the problems in Bangkok are found or not.

The Phuket Gazette reports; More than half of the Japanese tourists who planned to visit Phuket over the next week have canceled their bookings due to concerns over political unrest in Thailand.

Phuket Tourist Association (PTA) President Somboon Chirayus yesterday told the Gazette that despite the reopening of Phuket International Airport on Sunday, there have been many cancellations among foreign tour groups.

Cancellation rates among Japanese visitors are the highest, at about 50%, he said.

Methee Tanmanatragul, President of Thai Hotels Association Southern Chapter, earlier told the Gazette that the airport closures by anti-government protesters cost Phuket more than 250 million baht a day in tourism revenue, and about 400 million baht per day was lost in the Southern region as a whole.

I'm sorry, but I think tourism revenues and growth for 2007 will be negative especially if there is arguing back and forth for the next month as the referendum thing is ironed out.

[grantbkk]

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/search/rea...+lowers+tourism

If the current events get worse then maybe it will be lower than what they projected at that point.

Thank you for the link !

This "excuse" from TAT is a real joke ! But at the same time they're trying to find a way out for their previous projections and enormous growth predictions. Don't forget that their jobs are at stake.

It's also a joke that the number of 15 Million tourists will be reached in 2008; that would be a rise of 4,16% versus 2007 and I will leave the 2 Million "tourists" from Malaysia, Myanmar and Laos out of the discussion, ok ?

It is a BIG JOKE that TAT can't even do their maths.....

15 Million tourists for 2008 and they expect 16 Million for 2009 but they also say: It targets 3.3 % growth for 2009.

3.3% from 15 Million = 495.000...Total 15.495.000 and not 16 Million...

TAT lowers tourism projection

By Suchat Sritama

The Nation

Published on July 8, 2008

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) has sharply cut its projection for the number of international visitors and tourism revenue next year due to soaring oil prices, which are discouraging international travel and have led to cuts in inbound flights.

It targets only a 3.3-per-cent growth in the number of international visitors in 2009, a sharp downward revision from the original projection of 10 per cent. From a projected 17 million, or a 10-per-cent growth, the TAT expects only 16 million travellers to visit the country. About 15 million visitors are expected in 2008.

The TAT also halved it revenue-growth projection for next year to 5 per cent, though spending per head per trip is expected to increase from Bt38,760 this year to Bt39,375. Revenue projection for this year is Bt600 billion The authority is maintaining next year's domestic projection of 87 million trips with revenue of Bt407 billion.

Deputy governor for international marketing Santichai Eua-Chongprasit said the three key negative factors were oil prices, world economic uncertainty and fewer flights into the Kingdom.

He said the travel industry, especially long-haul routes, would be affected as the oil price may climb to US$200 (Bt6,800) per barrel.

TIT

LaoPo

The running joke that is the Tourism Authority of Thailand has found yet another way to save their job for another year. TAT's portfolio of failed ad campaigns and Their ability to spend money is legendary! Their answer to all of their problems is to go on a roadshow. I bet if the government was to do an audit and inspection of this failed agency they would find people on the books that left for "roadshows" years ago and never came back. Staying power and corruption is "job one" with TAT. The ad spot for television compared to other countries in the region should be a national embarrassment. The executives at TAT must be letting their kids do them as school projects to keep costs down.

[geriatrickid]

sorry meant 2008. apologies.

[LaoPo]

The running joke that is the Tourism Authority of Thailand has found yet another way to save their job for another year. TAT's portfolio of failed ad campaigns and Their ability to spend money is legendary! Their answer to all of their problems is to go on a roadshow. I bet if the government was to do an audit and inspection of this failed agency they would find people on the books that left for "roadshows" years ago and never came back. Staying power and corruption is "job one" with TAT. The ad spot for television compared to other countries in the region should be a national embarrassment. The executives at TAT must be letting their kids do them as school projects to keep costs down.

I couldn't have said it better. If one looks at the TAT websites it is IRRITATING that with most 'news-reports' they don't even publish a date....

Since the Pad protest however they -sometimes- do and even found nice slogans:

"THAILAND IS READY TO WELCOME VISITORS, DESPITE DOMESTIC POLITICS" no date

and which genius invented this ?:

OVERSEAS CHINESE TARGETED THROUGH THEIR CLAN MEETINGS and no date

http://www.tatnews.org/tat_release/detail.asp?id=3915

yeah right...

LaoPo

[dumball]

Yeah I'm sure you know better

Can you people not read and understand what you are being told no matter WHERE so ever you may get information to the contrary .

NOBODY DOES IT BETTER , because I KNOW IT ALL , peeriod !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[UKresonant]

From a uk vantage point, I think Numbers of visitors for the next 6 months could be as much as 25% negative to what it could have been.

We heard of one couple going elsewhere, as they normally go to Thailand for relatively short trips,and the combination of Higher airfares and Exchange rate movements had put them off in the short term in any case. Cost per Day had massively increased, they probably could afford it but did not see it as good value any longer.

I think most tourists would anticipate that they could probabably avoid the Demonstrations, however the associated disruption to the transport system is a threat to returning to the Airport at BKK ontime. For those that have traded down to a less flexible airfare, and must return to work/duty at a fixed time, it is yet another worry. If they have to spend an extra day in BKK to mitigate this risk,it does not help the cost per day consideration.

[jetjock]

Results of another survey posted in the Bangkok Post today. I hope you expats living in Thailand are marginally happier today like the survey says you are...

BANGKOK POST

Foreign tourists say they will be back

Despite ongoing political turbulence in Thailand, as many as 97 per cent of foreign investors and tourists visiting the kingdom said they would revisit this country again if the opportunity opens, according to a poll conducted earlier this week.

Assumption University's Abac Poll director Noppadol Kannikar said the survey, conducted from September 2 to 5 among 532 foreign investors and tourists, found that 98.9 per cent of the respondents said they would ask their relatives and friends to visit Thailand.

A total of 88.7 per cent of respondents expressed positive comments even after learning of the recent clash between pro- and anti-government demonstrators and the State of Emergency imposed in Bangkok, said Mr Noppadol.

However, 23.8 per cent of total respondents admitted their journeys were inconvenienced due to the suspension of domestic airlines and railway services as a result of work stoppage by employees. Some 11.6 per cent were forced to change their travel plans.

The gross happiness index of foreigners residing in Thailand, however, improved marginally to 8.06 in the latest survey from the 8.02 registered earlier.

[LaoPo]

Results of another survey posted in the Bangkok Post today. I hope you expats living in Thailand are marginally happier today like the survey says you are...

BANGKOK POST

Foreign tourists say they will be back

Despite ongoing political turbulence in Thailand, as many as 97 per cent of foreign investors and tourists visiting the kingdom said they would revisit this country again if the opportunity opens, according to a poll conducted earlier this week.

Assumption University's Abac Poll director Noppadol Kannikar said the survey, conducted from September 2 to 5 among 532 foreign investors and tourists, found that 98.9 per cent of the respondents said they would ask their relatives and friends to visit Thailand.

A total of 88.7 per cent of respondents expressed positive comments even after learning of the recent clash between pro- and anti-government demonstrators and the State of Emergency imposed in Bangkok, said Mr Noppadol.

However, 23.8 per cent of total respondents admitted their journeys were inconvenienced due to the suspension of domestic airlines and railway services as a result of work stoppage by employees. Some 11.6 per cent were forced to change their travel plans.

The gross happiness index of foreigners residing in Thailand, however, improved marginally to 8.06 in the latest survey from the 8.02 registered earlier.

they probably didn't visit Thaivisa

But, let's stay positive; all is well in Thailand according to the survey amongst 532 foreign INVESTORS and tourists

LaoPo

[cmdrj0]

I'm also at a loss as to why the happenings of the last few days are regarded as 'stupidity' when for many they are seen as very positive signs of the struggles of a growing democracy.

Tourism is one of Thailand's biggest money earners and it is already expected to go down substantially this year.

The actions of the PAD come just as many tourists are planning their winter vacations and the TV is full of scenes of mobs trying to bring down the elected government that just regained power by democratic means after being thrown out illegally by a military coup.

Most tourists will go out of their way to avoid visiting such a f***ed up place.

danger Will Robinson!! tourism accounts for less then 20% of thailand GNP, although it does support the majority of the "great unwashed"....check the stats!!! somebody please supply a reference available...im havin too much sanook now...

[thaihome]

Tourism is less then 10% of GNP. The :great unwashed" are mainly employed in agriculture, manufacturing, or construction.

TH

[Ulysses G.]

10 of GNP is nothing to sneeze at, but I think that they are forgetting all tthe money pumped into the country to support BG, girlfriends, wives and their families.

[Maigo6]

10 of GNP is nothing to sneeze at, but I think that they are forgetting all tthe money pumped into the country to support BG, girlfriends, wives and their families.

And second hand books.

[VBF]

If you look at all the data from previous "crisis" times, you see that the numbers are low for the month of the crisis and then bounce back to normal within a couple of months. Once the violence stops here, Thailand and PAD will vanish from the news and it will be back to business as usual.

The worldwide economic downturn will of course effect things, but looking at the figures for the first quarter, not that much currently. People still go on holiday, especially as Thailand is seen as a "cheep" place to visit, unlike the Caribbean for example.

This may be covered elsewhere in the thread but IMHO, the people who book via the big tour companies (families, first timers) will possibly be put off by the news. However, most of the cost of their pre-paid, pre-booked trips goes to big, multi-national companies and never finds its way into the Thai economy.

The independant travellers and the "old Thai hands" will, most probably, know that they can still have a wonderful time in Thailand, plus their money (apart from flights) goes mainly into the Thai economy.

So, IMO, the "package tourists" might stay away, but not, I suspect the majority of people with whom TV members come into contact. Just my opinion of 20 years traveling to and around Thailand, no informed source!

As Arnie said "I'll be back" - and as soon as possible, too!!

Edited September 8, 2008 by VBF

[henryalleman]

<br />I'd like to know exactly what it is that 'Thailand's Tourism Decline' is going to 'Exacerbate'.<br /><br /><br />I'm also at a loss as to why the happenings of the last few days are regarded as 'stupidity' when for many they are seen as very positive signs of the struggles of a growing democracy.<br /><br />---<br />The decline in tourism that Thailand is seeing (and before you rush elsewhere to invest, so is everywhere else) is due to the international economic downturn - It will not last.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />

<br /><br /><br />

One of the main reasons why their is a decline in Thai tourism is simply because their is more competition. For European tourist spending an holiday in Turky, Egypt and the Dominican republic is much much more cheaper than in Thailand. Those countries made an tremendous effort to attract tourists. the hotels and resorts are brand new and the sell holiday packages all include, meaning all drinks, food entertainment, even barber, laundry and so on. the beaches and nature are very nice. Also its only 2 or 3 hours by plane.

For sex tourism the Dominican republic even have hotels where you can have a girl who is include in the room rate, and at your service for the time being there.

The new republic in Eastern Europe has a booming tourism industry, only 1 hour by plane or a 1000 Km drive by car. Its also a paradise for sex tourism, Hetero or Homo sexuel.

And all of that on a price level much lower than Thailand.

Also the traditional European tourist countries like France, Italy, Spain, Austria, Germany, Greece and other EU countries benefits from the single currency market and open borders. One example taking money out of ATM in another EU member state is free.

Their is also a new tendency that people get shorter holiday's, but more often 3 or 4 times yearly.

Short cultural sightseeing city trips for a weekend are booming. And lets be frankly there is no equivalent in Thailand for the numerous historical cities in Europe for this kind of tourists. This towns do everything possible to attract people. They make the historical centres traffic free, organise all kind of festivals. have many museums and so on. My home town Antwerp rather unknown in the world had 5 million foreign visitors and 1 million hotel room bookings. to give an idea last year 50 000 Japanese visitors last year. They spend 5 million euro to build a terminal to attract cruise ships, who can enter in the historical city centre.

TAT just fall a sleep because everything was easy, they did not realise that the global tourist market was changing, and now they pay the price for their laziness.

And last but not least the new energy prices make intercontinental flights very expensive. And attract Asian tourists is not enough to balance the spending power of European tourists.