Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[syd barrett]

It seems to me that the most difficult decision is to decide what currrency to hold and what to get rid of. I think the GBP-US$ will steady now, but I am also really worried about a THB collapse. maybe I should change my THB into YEN or Singapore $. I think the EURO is the worst bet at the moment, even worse than US$.

Any currency suggestions?

[chiang mai]

It seems to me that the most difficult decision is to decide what currrency to hold and what to get rid of. I think the GBP-US$ will steady now, but I am also really worried about a THB collapse. maybe I should change my THB into YEN or Singapore $. I think the EURO is the worst bet at the moment, even worse than US$.

Any currency suggestions?

Depends on your time horizon and what you spend I suppose. I'm holding a mix of GBP, USD, EUR, THB and YEN, not in proportions that are ideal but enough to have fun with and not lose too much if things go really pear shaped. I spend THB so it's important for me personally to have enough THB on hand to cover the next twelve months at a minimum and I will always maintain that level at least - my second currency choices are those that convert well into THB. USD needs to be watched very closely at present although what I would switch into from USD brings us back to your original question so you are not alone! The key I think is to hold enough of the currency you spend and have available sufficient of some others as a hedge.

[flying]

market watchers seem more and more inclined to talk up the story of Dollar demise rather than GBP demise!. As for Dollar parity, it's not even a consideration in my book.

I think it is rightfully so "talked up"

Our story is based in facts. There is a reason the USD will take a beating.

We have been funding 2 wars wastefully

We have been living beyond out means.

We have been using *creative* financing etc. etc. etc.

We were supposed to pay the piper long ago the bill is now

so overdue the interest alone will be smashing.

True to our form we will first try to fix it by adding more credit debt.

Edited December 13, 2008 by flying

[SomNamNah]

Dear Santa.

Divergence on the bahts climb. nice. double top also.

Start of divergence on Sterling fall vs Dollar. nice. double bottom also. (hmm.. maybe continuation-sideways pattern )

i dont trust these bottoms, but the baht must crack - for the sake of the country, for the sake of my bar bills, for the sake of farmer/sweatshop joe with mountains of shit thats too pricey to export!

If the baht were a stock, i would look to short it. Now or on the next peak.

Is the USD about to the follow sterling roller coaster?...

Edited December 14, 2008 by SomNamNah

[flying]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

[Marvo]

Hey Chiang mai, you're glued to the screens and have your ear to the ground, finger on the pulse of the USD/GBP etc., - any idea what news broke at 12:00 GMT today?

[imaneggspurt]

Britain is doomed. Its the 70's all over again, except we spent all of Scottish oil wealth already on middle class 'skiing holidays' (according to mr torygraph) and now we have the doors open to any european peasant who wants work.

Cant the EU give back some of the tens of billions the UK has given it been conned out of to pay for german nursing homes, and spanish pavements? backstabbers.

Oz/Nz/Canada are the only sensible options now. Abandon ship! (actually dont abandon yet, wait till i get settled in first please)

but how on earth can the baht remain so strong, its insane!!!- getting my rubber blanket ready for when the traders pull the plug on the baht.

Where are my chill pills?

God im tired of all this moving around, my family seem to have been refugees from countries going tits up for 100 years now!

Russia 1917---> Germany 1945---> France 1968---> UK 2009 -----> Land of Oz?

Just be cool man, go half and half, keep your bridges open, don't burn them just yet.

The UKs been through worse sht than this and still kept on truckin'

ive never seen anything like this in my almost 60 years,....

http://money.uk.msn.com/mortgages/mortgage...mentid=11897869

[chiang mai]

Hey Chiang mai, you're glued to the screens and have your ear to the ground, finger on the pulse of the USD/GBP etc., - any idea what news broke at 12:00 GMT today?

Sorry, I was at the beach and my screens don't work there! In looking back though I don't see anything obvious, maybe just a push by large traders, be interesting to see where it finishes this week because it's a news heavy week from the UK and non of it will be good.

Just saw it in the FT, USD dropped ahead of the Fed meeting on Tuesday as they reckon there'll be another rate cut. Can I get back to the beach now?

Edited December 16, 2008 by chiang mai

[flying]

Wonder if it is the dollars turn at bat now?

The Dollar will retest 88 within the next 30 days I saw the Chinese import numbers and it looks as though deflation may even be hitting the Chinese soon! Also of note is that the Rubble is in free fall and the Russians are buying Dollars The next thing you know is that the Russians will be selling gold 2009 certainly will be an interesting year my friend!

I dont know Vic

This is looking very bad more like a retest low 83 then off we go to 60

Edited December 17, 2008 by flying

[SomNamNah]

nice one flying!! your crystal balls served you well sir!

[ArranP]

Bloomberg: Today the Japanese authorities have announced their intention to intervene in the currency markets to weaken the Yen.

Currently at 89 to the dollar, traditionally they have liked to stay above 100. If currency traders know this is a one way bet, this could incourage using the Yen as a funding currency, as the BOJ is at near 0%, to buy commodities (priced in dollars).

The price of oil, gold and other commodities will rise as speculators re-enter the market.

The start of re-establishing positions in commodities and later perhaps equities, has in-turn eventually lead to the weakening of the dollar.... and therefore the strengthening of the pound, more baht for your pound!!

In the near term however, the pound may have further to weaken from the remaining BOE rate cuts over the next 6 months.

I think the Recession is global, therefore the Macro is dire everywhere...

Edited December 18, 2008 by ArranP

[whiterussian]

The euro is going DOWN! next week - when they realise all the donkey cart european countries are marching on Berlin Frankfurt for handouts...

And the Pound is going UP.

the etchasketch never lies.

Arbeit Macht Frei... but only upto 48 hours per week. Got to leave time for vino el cheapo.

so mote it be.

Edited December 20, 2008 by UKWEBPRO

[Enjibenji]

The euro is going DOWN! next week - when they realise all the donkey cart european countries are marching on Berlin Frankfurt for handouts...

And the Pound is going UP.

the etchasketch never lies.

Arbeit Macht Frei... but only upto 48 hours per week. Got to leave time for vino el cheapo.

so mote it be.

anyone else able to confirm this??

also, how much would the euro go down, and how much would the pound go up? (pound vs euro/baht)

[whiterussian]

crickey, dont take my word for it! I havent got any money on this...

only my sterling.. which i will leave where it is unless it breaks through the 2001-2002 support vs USD. which it hasnt. and i pray it wont.

too lazy to reactivate my trading accounts (im quite happy with my head in the sand for now). pure speculation. (and wishful thinking). also pinning my hopes on a spectacular baht devaluation to offset the crap pound

but it does look to me that the USD vs EURO has or will hit an area of resistance here.

i may have the chart upside down. please do your own research. I have 2 flats in Spain, i bet they are worth jack shit now .

Edited December 20, 2008 by UKWEBPRO

[ace]

anyone else able to confirm this??

also, how much would the euro go down, and how much would the pound go up? (pound vs euro/baht)

I wouldn't be long pound/euro myself. I think parity is the new paradigm In fact, I would not be surprised at all to see a pound buying you 65-67 euro cents in 2009. That's just my opinion (& I earn in Euro), why? Tax receipts - Collapse , State Expenditure - Moonshot, Foreign Trade Balance - Awful . And that's just 3 off the top of my head. Would you buy bonds in that company?

[whiterussian]

what about the YEN, if the <deleted> hits the fan? (and the yen dips)

trying to plan ahead slightly just in case the doomsday press are correct.. I cant see myself getting to grips with the FX thing in time if it happens early next quarter.

(my main trading account is a bitch to put cash into). Gold? from what i hear the price on the street isnt the real price, i hate spreads, let alone spreads from an anonymous Thai gold seller!

actually... forget it, stick to plan B. panic when the pound breaches know boundaries. gulp.

Edited December 20, 2008 by UKWEBPRO

[ArranP]

USD/JPY JPY reported to weaken against the USD in the near term from Japanese authorities interveening to weaken its currency (reported on Bloomberg)

EUR/USD EUR reported to weaken against USD due to the ECB being behind on rate cuts, and germany apparently about to fall the cliff (reported by currency stratigists on Bloomberg)

GBP/EUR EUR due to weaken against GBP for the same reasons given in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD GBP may weaken further in the near term from further BOE rate cuts, but strengthening to 1.80/1.90 by end of 2009 (reported by Barclays Capital)

[MJP]

USD/JPY JPY reported to weaken against the USD in the near term from Japanese authorities interveening to weaken its currency (reported on Bloomberg)

EUR/USD EUR reported to weaken against USD due to the ECB being behind on rate cuts, and germany apparently about to fall the cliff (reported by currency stratigists on Bloomberg)

GBP/EUR EUR due to weaken against GBP for the same reasons given in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD GBP may weaken further in the near term from further BOE rate cuts, but strengthening to 1.80/1.90 by end of 2009 (reported by Barclays Capital)

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/307...ains-debt.thtml

[VegasVic]

USD/JPY JPY reported to weaken against the USD in the near term from Japanese authorities interveening to weaken its currency (reported on Bloomberg)

EUR/USD EUR reported to weaken against USD due to the ECB being behind on rate cuts, and germany apparently about to fall the cliff (reported by currency stratigists on Bloomberg)

GBP/EUR EUR due to weaken against GBP for the same reasons given in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD GBP may weaken further in the near term from further BOE rate cuts, but strengthening to 1.80/1.90 by end of 2009 (reported by Barclays Capital)

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/307...ains-debt.thtml

MJP, I was about to comment on the last line of Arrans post regarding the Pound getting to $1.80 by the end of 2009 until I read your link to the spectator article, I think that the spectator made the UK's dilema far more clear more than I could One of my oldest friends on Wall Street told me a couple months ago that things will be getting bad very soon then they will get worse, but as bad as the situation may seem here in the U.S. he told me the situation in the UK (where much of his business was) will be worse by a factor of 2 or perhaps 3 times. He thought back then that the FED would have to go to 0% on the FED funds rate and that eventually the BOE will have to do the same, however he said that there was a big difference between the U.S. and the U.K., as he put it the U.S. had more outs! As a former poker player I knew what the term meant, but until I read this article by the spectator I didn't know exactly just how bad the situation was in the U.K. was. In the first 90 days of the new year I think you will see the Pound and Euro at par and the BOE cutting their interest rate to 0%, the ECB will also be forced to cut their rates substantially so the Dollar will hit new 52 week highs against both of them. As far as Barclays predicting the Pound to be at $1.80-$1.90 by years end, well lets just say that Barclays has a better chance of no longer being a going concern by the end of 2009 than the Pound has of being back in the $1.80-$1.90 range.

[flying]

MJP, I was about to comment on the last line of Arrans post regarding the Pound getting to $1.80 by the end of 2009 until I read your link to the spectator article, I think that the spectator made the UK's dilema far more clear more than I could

That was an eye opener. If accurate it is quite shocking isn't it? At least it was to me. I had no idea. Thanks for the link

[MJP]

USD/JPY JPY reported to weaken against the USD in the near term from Japanese authorities interveening to weaken its currency (reported on Bloomberg)

EUR/USD EUR reported to weaken against USD due to the ECB being behind on rate cuts, and germany apparently about to fall the cliff (reported by currency stratigists on Bloomberg)

GBP/EUR EUR due to weaken against GBP for the same reasons given in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD GBP may weaken further in the near term from further BOE rate cuts, but strengthening to 1.80/1.90 by end of 2009 (reported by Barclays Capital)

http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/307...ains-debt.thtml

MJP, I was about to comment on the last line of Arrans post regarding the Pound getting to $1.80 by the end of 2009 until I read your link to the spectator article, I think that the spectator made the UK's dilema far more clear more than I could One of my oldest friends on Wall Street told me a couple months ago that things will be getting bad very soon then they will get worse, but as bad as the situation may seem here in the U.S. he told me the situation in the UK (where much of his business was) will be worse by a factor of 2 or perhaps 3 times. He thought back then that the FED would have to go to 0% on the FED funds rate and that eventually the BOE will have to do the same, however he said that there was a big difference between the U.S. and the U.K., as he put it the U.S. had more outs! As a former poker player I knew what the term meant, but until I read this article by the spectator I didn't know exactly just how bad the situation was in the U.K. was. In the first 90 days of the new year I think you will see the Pound and Euro at par and the BOE cutting their interest rate to 0%, the ECB will also be forced to cut their rates substantially so the Dollar will hit new 52 week highs against both of them. As far as Barclays predicting the Pound to be at $1.80-$1.90 by years end, well lets just say that Barclays has a better chance of no longer being a going concern by the end of 2009 than the Pound has of being back in the $1.80-$1.90 range.

Thanks Vic,

Finally someone not of the UK sees the dire mess the UK is actually in. Now I know Mr SoiDog is going to berate me for this, but I'm a big boy now. The UK is in fact facing complete systemic failure. I've lived through the insane boom, which contrary to Our Dear Leader Brown's protestations, did start in Britain.

Needless to say, I did see this coming and started shouting about it in 2002/2003. I've been on the thin end of the bankruptcy wedge when papa went bust in the last crash (which looks like a pleasant rose garden tea party compared to what is coming).

I began the transition to Asia in 2004. Bought £100k of THB at 75.75 and more since at favourable rates. I did buy a little land, built a couple of modest dwellings but I've been frugal and at least we'll eat.

Like Iceland, Ireland, Spain, Greece . . . the UK is essentially bankrupt. The politics here have been that of the mad house since 1997. Bliar was a crook, but Brown's worse. He's a devout ideologist of the left wing. Even did his Ph.D thesis on the history of the Labour Party.

The place stands absolutely no chance.

Anyway, I leave the UK for the last time on New Year's eve, land New Year's Day. Got work in Taiwan starting in early '09. It's been a struggle, but it's been worth it.

[percy2]

If you are worried about currencies abdicate from them.

Cheers

[MJP]

If you are worried about currencies abdicate from them.

Cheers

Jim Rogers is right.

But the Forex Gold quoted rate is based on gold ETF, which all the majors players know is just another bunch of paper, backed by nothing but lies.

Anyone want to guess where physical gold prices will be in 6 months?

[percy2]

Is Jim Rogers my other name?

Cheers

[MJP]

Is Jim Rogers my other name?

Cheers

I should say so.

Oh and Hi Jim!

[lannarebirth]

If you are worried about currencies abdicate from them.

Cheers

Jim Rogers is right.

But the Forex Gold quoted rate is based on gold ETF, which all the majors players know is just another bunch of paper, backed by nothing but lies.

Anyone want to guess where physical gold prices will be in 6 months?

One of the goldbugs central themes these past few months was that the futures market could not deliver on their "paper" promises for the December contract. Contract settlement has come and gone and the world has not slipped off its axis amazingly. If you want gold in any amount buy it for delivery through the futures. These spreads people seem to be content to pay reeks of pure ignorance and mania.

Maybe I'll be eating my words come next expiration, but it was the last one where it was said things would go "boom" and did not.

Edited December 21, 2008 by lannarebirth

[MJP]

If you are worried about currencies abdicate from them.

Cheers

Jim Rogers is right.

But the Forex Gold quoted rate is based on gold ETF, which all the majors players know is just another bunch of paper, backed by nothing but lies.

Anyone want to guess where physical gold prices will be in 6 months?

One of the goldbugs central themes these past few months was that the futures market could not deliver on their "paper" promises for the December contract. Contract settlement has come and gone and the world has not slipped off its axis amazingly. If you want gold in any amount buy it for delivery through the futures. These spreads people seem to be content to pay reeks of pure ignorance and mania.

Maybe I'll be eating my words come next expiration, but it was the last one where it was said things would go "boom" and did not.

To be honest, I cannot understand why gold hasn't gone zoom in these times. I suspected the ETF thing and a lack of confidence in it.

I think holding a proportion of wealth in physical gold is not a bad idea though. Say 20%? Remember, this recession thing is looking more like a depression by the day and has yet to really get started.

I don't say this stuff through doom-mongering or schadenfreude, just a notion of reality and ways to keep the family fed.

[flying]

If you are worried about currencies abdicate from them.

Cheers

Jim Rogers is right.

But the Forex Gold quoted rate is based on gold ETF, which all the majors players know is just another bunch of paper, backed by nothing but lies.

Anyone want to guess where physical gold prices will be in 6 months?

One of the goldbugs central themes these past few months was that the futures market could not deliver on their "paper" promises for the December contract. Contract settlement has come and gone and the world has not slipped off its axis amazingly. If you want gold in any amount buy it for delivery through the futures. These spreads people seem to be content to pay reeks of pure ignorance and mania.

Maybe I'll be eating my words come next expiration, but it was the last one where it was said things would go "boom" and did not.

To be honest, I cannot understand why gold hasn't gone zoom in these times. I suspected the ETF thing and a lack of confidence in it.

I think holding a proportion of wealth in physical gold is not a bad idea though. Say 20%? Remember, this recession thing is looking more like a depression by the day and has yet to really get started.

I don't say this stuff through doom-mongering or schadenfreude, just a notion of reality and ways to keep the family fed.

I agree with MJP 100% on this & 20% just happens to be where I am now.

As for LB's comment

These spreads people seem to be content to pay reeks of pure ignorance and mania.

Must be nice to have the option not to pay the premium. I sir do not & yet I reek of neither ignorance or mania.

http://www.nymex.com/GC_spec.aspx

Edited December 21, 2008 by flying

[percy2]

Its obvious that people see the only alternative to currency is gold.

This is good for gold.

I would say you should broaden your basket.

Cheers

[MJP]

Its obvious that people see the only alternative to currency is gold.

This is good for gold.

I would say you should broaden your basket.

Cheers

Add to that it can decorate the wife.

Bit like putting a silk hat on a pig in mine's case though.