Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[Bizz]

LAST TIME US HAD 1% INTEREST this was the average food for taught

Time period: 04/23/03 to 10/29/04.

Average (556 days): 1.19608

High: 1.29280

Low: 1.07570

[chiang mai]

May bring cheer to some and tears to other's

http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory

€ baht

Average (1834 days): 48.31191

High: 54.14140

Low: 41.05580

£ baht

http://www.oanda.com/convert/fxhistory

Average (1834 days): 69.24513

High: 76.66120

Low: 54.96630

I'm afraid that only shows one side of the equation and doesn't consider the difference in the UK economy between then and now, a huge factor.

[cmsally]

Just want to share some thoughts on what's happening and maybe going to happen:

It looks to me as though the heavily oversold GBP/USD is going to retreat for a while, seemingly because of the threat of intervention to protect/prevent a soaring YEN - that threat does seem to be having the desired effect for the moment but only slightly. I'm looking for GBP/USD to retreat to the low/mid 1.60's and then to reform before continuing its downward track and its destination could/may/should/will be sub 1.50. The impact of this move is that we may see GBP/THB start to improve and I think this is very misleading and potentially very dangerous for holders of GBP because it will make them complacent. The reasons why I believe GBP will continue its decline after the forth coming brief respite are all the same old reasons, Interest rates (current and forecast), borrowings, continued repatriation of funds into USD and hedge fund closures. If those things are true and correct there could be an opportunity to sell GBP and buy USD at say 1.65 (ish) before the reversal begins, I certainly will. The risk is that USD will bounce back at some point and unless I truly don't understand any of this, that must surely happen at some point - sensibly I don't see that happening before December at the earliest. The key will therefore be downstream to detect when the time is right to bail out of USD and back into GBP/baht/mars bars/your choice.

Happy to hear constructive comments on all of this.

I think you might be on to something and today it looks like GBP is creeping up. Gordon and Sarkozy unveiled "Le Plan" which actually was more of a warning E Europe would need a lot of money.

Shares might rally slightly, somehow I can't see currency doing anything dramatic.

Well GBP up to 57 today along with AUS$ and Euro up to.

I presume if the rally in commodities and shares keeps up, this is the way it will continue.

As an aside moneysupermarket sees the good ole Irish banks right at the top of the interest rates, so maybe they will be the next to go. So far it has been a pretty reliable indicator

[cmsally]

SCB Exchange

Take a look at the exchange rates. Can anyone explain the massive drop and rise back up again of the GBP within an hour. Take a look at the rates between 0800 and 0900 (30 Oct).

[cmsally]

BBC News

David Blanchflower

At the end of the day his opinion is really only that. And I don't know that taking it as important news is good for what the situation needs which is confidence.

It looks a little like he is trying to get a platform while he gets the chance. Had never heard of this person before reading this somewhat uninformative article.

[chiang mai]

Just want to share some thoughts on what's happening and maybe going to happen:

It looks to me as though the heavily oversold GBP/USD is going to retreat for a while, seemingly because of the threat of intervention to protect/prevent a soaring YEN - that threat does seem to be having the desired effect for the moment but only slightly. I'm looking for GBP/USD to retreat to the low/mid 1.60's and then to reform before continuing its downward track and its destination could/may/should/will be sub 1.50. The impact of this move is that we may see GBP/THB start to improve and I think this is very misleading and potentially very dangerous for holders of GBP because it will make them complacent. The reasons why I believe GBP will continue its decline after the forth coming brief respite are all the same old reasons, Interest rates (current and forecast), borrowings, continued repatriation of funds into USD and hedge fund closures. If those things are true and correct there could be an opportunity to sell GBP and buy USD at say 1.65 (ish) before the reversal begins, I certainly will. The risk is that USD will bounce back at some point and unless I truly don't understand any of this, that must surely happen at some point - sensibly I don't see that happening before December at the earliest. The key will therefore be downstream to detect when the time is right to bail out of USD and back into GBP/baht/mars bars/your choice.

Happy to hear constructive comments on all of this.

I think you might be on to something and today it looks like GBP is creeping up. Gordon and Sarkozy unveiled "Le Plan" which actually was more of a warning E Europe would need a lot of money.

Shares might rally slightly, somehow I can't see currency doing anything dramatic.

Well GBP up to 57 today along with AUS$ and Euro up to.

I presume if the rally in commodities and shares keeps up, this is the way it will continue.

As an aside moneysupermarket sees the good ole Irish banks right at the top of the interest rates, so maybe they will be the next to go. So far it has been a pretty reliable indicator

I'm still with my original guess, GBP/USD up to around 1.65 (ish) and then a big fall. It's reached 1.66 and the indicators are that a turn South is due. If that's correct then expect GBP/THB to go in the same direction. For the sake of GBP holders who have not hedged, I hope I am wrong - for my sake, since I'm hedged in USD, I hope I'm right.

As for Irish banks, I agree.

[HardenedSoul]

I'm still with my original guess, GBP/USD up to around 1.65 (ish) and then a big fall. It's reached 1.66 and the indicators are that a turn South is due. If that's correct then expect GBP/THB to go in the same direction. For the sake of GBP holders who have not hedged, I hope I am wrong - for my sake, since I'm hedged in USD, I hope I'm right.

I think we'll get a bit more on GBP/USD should the US Q3 GDP figures come in worse than the expected 0.5% later today (I think they will). At that point, I'll be considering CAD, AUD or Swissies

[DavidOxon]

I've just been offered 56.11 by a london currency broker . . .

buy now . . . or wait till tomorrow?

david

[chiang mai]

I've just been offered 56.11 by a london currency broker . . .

buy now . . . or wait till tomorrow?

david

Kasikorn Bank will give you 57.22 on a Telegraphic Transfer, Bangkok Bank will do similar, why use a UK broker?

I can't advise you when to make the transfer, you must take your own view, sorry. What I see happening is that GBP/USD is currently bouncing backwards and forwards around 1.65 with a two or three cent swing either way - as GBP has strengthened so too has the GBP/THB.

I just finished reading a piece by Roger Bootle of Capital Economics who confirms my view that GBP/USD will hit below 1.50 before next year, exactly when that will happen, today, next week, next month or whenever, I have no idea but there is a growing consensus to suggest that will happen. If and when it does the GBP/THB will likely fall quite low.

Edited October 30, 2008 by chiang mai

[DavidOxon]

Because I don't have the money here now and they will guarantee the price here now with 5 working days to pay.

Which is time, UK intrest rates drop next week, if I have to wait then i might be regretting it

[chiang mai]

Because I don't have the money here now and they will guarantee the price here now with 5 working days to pay.

Which is time, UK intrest rates drop next week, if I have to wait then i might be regretting it

You could transfer the money in Sterling from the UK with a request to make the exchange here in Thailand at say Kasikorn or BB, that seems to be generally accepted practice in these circumstances and it's certainly what I do.

[Noodles]

Because I don't have the money here now and they will guarantee the price here now with 5 working days to pay.

Which is time, UK intrest rates drop next week, if I have to wait then i might be regretting it

You could transfer the money in Sterling from the UK with a request to make the exchange here in Thailand at say Kasikorn or BB, that seems to be generally accepted practice in these circumstances and it's certainly what I do.

So do you mean I can transfer my GBP from HSBC in the UK to my Bangkok Bank branch

here in Samui? Does the GBP have to be exchanged into baht on the day it hits my bank account

or can I wait till a better rate happens?

What are the charges for this? I used to use travelex, but I'm not sure my account is still open with

them.

I've been checking the rate everyday with this site, and its better than what Bangkok Bank are offering!

http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi

[churchill]

I would imagine the funds would be transfered to Baht on the day they are received by Bangkok Bank in Bangkok and then transfered to your account in Samui . Perhaps you could set up a sterling account at Bangkok Babk and then do the exchange when you feel the rate is at its best .

[Noodles]

I would imagine the funds would be transfered to Baht on the day they are received by Bangkok Bank in Bangkok and then transfered to your account in Samui . Perhaps you could set up a sterling account at Bangkok Babk and then do the exchange when you feel the rate is at its best .

Ok, I'll ask at the branch tomorrow. If I can't get the sterling account, it will be a huge gamble transfering and

then hoping that the day it arrives the baht rate is ok here. Thats why I was thinking of using a broker in the UK, at least

that way I know what i will be getting when it arrives.

Any thoughts?

[chiang mai]

Because I don't have the money here now and they will guarantee the price here now with 5 working days to pay.

Which is time, UK intrest rates drop next week, if I have to wait then i might be regretting it

You could transfer the money in Sterling from the UK with a request to make the exchange here in Thailand at say Kasikorn or BB, that seems to be generally accepted practice in these circumstances and it's certainly what I do.

So do you mean I can transfer my GBP from HSBC in the UK to my Bangkok Bank branch

here in Samui? Does the GBP have to be exchanged into baht on the day it hits my bank account

or can I wait till a better rate happens?

What are the charges for this? I used to use travelex, but I'm not sure my account is still open with

them.

I've been checking the rate everyday with this site, and its better than what Bangkok Bank are offering!

http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi

David, for example: I keep some GBP with HSBC Hong Kong and when I need Baht I tell them to transfer Sterling to either HSBC Bangkok or Bangkok Bank, whichever I chose. Usually I go into HSBC Bangkok and tell them to send HSBC Hong Kong a wire telling them how much I want - I specify at the time whether I want the Sterling converted to Baht in Hong Kong or in Bangkok based on whether offshore or onshore rates are best. The funds arrive the same day as long as I make the request before 11:00 and HSBC Bangkok (or BB) call me and tell me the rate of exchange.

Just a quick note on HSBC UK here: I had some bad experiences a few years ago with HSBC in the City when they took seven days to transfer (not huge amounts) of Sterling to Thailand, the reason for the delay they claimed is because Thailand is on a watch list of places where UK banks need prior approval to transfer funds blah blah blah. I never really got to the bottom of it all but just switched instead to using HSBC in Hong Kong which is super efficient. You may therefore want to check with them if there is any reason why they can't do a same day Swift transfer.

Also, do not use Travelex under any circumstances because they are just too costly. When you compare rates at banks you need to look at the TT rate and not the sell rate.

Edited October 30, 2008 by chiang mai

[Noodles]

Thanks for the advice chiang mai.

[chiang mai]

It looks as though the GBP/USD scenario we discussed a week ago is now beginning to play out its final stages of movement - after rising to 1.66 against the Pound GBP has now started to fall and is currently at 1.58. With the first of a series of large scale interest rate cuts due Thursday from BOE I reckon the Pound is not going to get much better against the Baht than we see it today.

[ThaiPauly]

Down to 55.1 this morning....pretty grim rate.

[chiang mai]

Down to 55.1 this morning....pretty grim rate.

I believe GBP/USD will certainly go sub 1.50 at a minimum and the potential for 1.40 and lower is very real. If nothing else changes then 1.50 should translate into 50 THB per Pound and 1.40 into around 45 THB.

Edited November 4, 2008 by chiang mai

[cmsally]

I would tend to agree, I guess the question is how long the BOT can keep the US$ under 35Bt.

Seems to be a big psychological hurdle as when it creeps up to 34.9 it starts going down again.

Edited November 4, 2008 by cmsally

[cmsally]

As a quick aside, anyone know if it's possible to open US$ account on online HSBC offshore. (Already have GBP acct.)

I think I might be needing some more US$ and that seems as though it could be the quickest solution.

[chiang mai]

As a quick aside, anyone know if it's possible to open US$ account on online HSBC offshore. (Already have GBP acct.)

I think I might be needing some more US$ and that seems as though it could be the quickest solution.

No idea. If you have a Nationwide International account in IOM you can open a USD account over the phone. If with HSBC you should check out their multi currency account which lets you buy/sell currency online (this out of Hong Kong at least).

[beginner]

As a quick aside, anyone know if it's possible to open US$ account on online HSBC offshore. (Already have GBP acct.)

I think I might be needing some more US$ and that seems as though it could be the quickest solution.

Yes, if you are talking about Offshore.HSBC in Jersey. Just log on and do it. Up to you Euro, US $ or UK pounds.

Lots of other currencies too but some have minimum balances eg Swiss Franc or Hong Kong Dollar.

[Naam]

SCB Exchange

Take a look at the exchange rates. Can anyone explain the massive drop and rise back up again of the GBP within an hour. Take a look at the rates between 0800 and 0900 (30 Oct).

massive drop and rise?

[cmsally]

SCB Exchange

Take a look at the exchange rates. Can anyone explain the massive drop and rise back up again of the GBP within an hour. Take a look at the rates between 0800 and 0900 (30 Oct).

massive drop and rise?

Interesting that you brought up that old post of mine. Because when I posted there were about 4 changes between 0800-0900 that morning. One showed a drop of over a Baht and another a rise back up of about one Baht.

Then I looked again at that link a couple of days later and noticed the drop and rise had been erased and now according to bank exchange figures indeed never happened at all.

[chiang mai]

SCB Exchange

Take a look at the exchange rates. Can anyone explain the massive drop and rise back up again of the GBP within an hour. Take a look at the rates between 0800 and 0900 (30 Oct).

massive drop and rise?

Interesting that you brought up that old post of mine. Because when I posted there were about 4 changes between 0800-0900 that morning. One showed a drop of over a Baht and another a rise back up of about one Baht.

Then I looked again at that link a couple of days later and noticed the drop and rise had been erased and now according to bank exchange figures indeed never happened at all.

Sure Sally, we believe you saw them, honestly we do.

[Naam]

SCB Exchange

Take a look at the exchange rates. Can anyone explain the massive drop and rise back up again of the GBP within an hour. Take a look at the rates between 0800 and 0900 (30 Oct).

massive drop and rise?

Interesting that you brought up that old post of mine. Because when I posted there were about 4 changes between 0800-0900 that morning. One showed a drop of over a Baht and another a rise back up of about one Baht.

Then I looked again at that link a couple of days later and noticed the drop and rise had been erased and now according to bank exchange figures indeed never happened at all.

at some point the values are fed by hand. it might have been a typo or more likely = even i realise sometimes unusual up and down movements between 08.00 and 09.00 and suspect that it's based on intervention by Ms Tarisa.

[cmsally]

SCB Exchange

Take a look at the exchange rates. Can anyone explain the massive drop and rise back up again of the GBP within an hour. Take a look at the rates between 0800 and 0900 (30 Oct).

massive drop and rise?

Interesting that you brought up that old post of mine. Because when I posted there were about 4 changes between 0800-0900 that morning. One showed a drop of over a Baht and another a rise back up of about one Baht.

Then I looked again at that link a couple of days later and noticed the drop and rise had been erased and now according to bank exchange figures indeed never happened at all.

at some point the values are fed by hand. it might have been a typo or more likely = even i realise sometimes unusual up and down movements between 08.00 and 09.00 and suspect that it's based on intervention by Ms Tarisa.

You're absolutely right she got to work before everyone else and by 0900 they figured out what she was up to!

PS I now vow revenge on the SCB for making me look stupid.

[Naam]

SCB Exchange

Take a look at the exchange rates. Can anyone explain the massive drop and rise back up again of the GBP within an hour. Take a look at the rates between 0800 and 0900 (30 Oct).

massive drop and rise?

Interesting that you brought up that old post of mine. Because when I posted there were about 4 changes between 0800-0900 that morning. One showed a drop of over a Baht and another a rise back up of about one Baht.

Then I looked again at that link a couple of days later and noticed the drop and rise had been erased and now according to bank exchange figures indeed never happened at all.

at some point the values are fed by hand. it might have been a typo or more likely = even i realise sometimes unusual up and down movements between 08.00 and 09.00 and suspect that it's based on intervention by Ms Tarisa.

You're absolutely right she got to work before everyone else and by 0900 they figured out what she was up to!

PS I now vow revenge on the SCB for making me look stupid.

toothpicks into the cardslots of SCB ATMs?

[PCA]

SCB Exchange

Take a look at the exchange rates. Can anyone explain the massive drop and rise back up again of the GBP within an hour. Take a look at the rates between 0800 and 0900 (30 Oct).

massive drop and rise?

Interesting that you brought up that old post of mine. Because when I posted there were about 4 changes between 0800-0900 that morning. One showed a drop of over a Baht and another a rise back up of about one Baht.

Then I looked again at that link a couple of days later and noticed the drop and rise had been erased and now according to bank exchange figures indeed never happened at all.

what you saw was real and nothing got erased afterwards. That are normal intraday fluctuations.