Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[chiang mai]

Many people seem to be avoiding the basic maths on the UK housing market.

Average wage: 24,000

Average House price: 185,000 (roughly I think)

You can stop counting at 5 x earnings!!

Yep, if you want to see freefall just watch UK housing.

Pound will bounce around 50-55 for a very long time now. It's not the end of the World, it's just an end to the free lunch the Brit's were getting.

I see GBP/USD heading for 1.45 sooner rather than later, certainly this year. If that materializes expect the GBP/THB range to be 45/50 for a very long time. Like everyone else I also see USD bouncing from its highs but funds repatriation are likely to prevent that for at least three months, more probably four or five. The only possible wild card is the BOT position on Baht strength and the strength of the Thai economy in that time frame. Pound Sterling? It only has one way to go unfortunately!

[MJP]

Many people seem to be avoiding the basic maths on the UK housing market.

Average wage: 24,000

Average House price: 185,000 (roughly I think)

You can stop counting at 5 x earnings!!

Yep, if you want to see freefall just watch UK housing.

Pound will bounce around 50-55 for a very long time now. It's not the end of the World, it's just an end to the free lunch the Brit's were getting.

I see GBP/USD heading for 1.45 sooner rather than later, certainly this year. If that materializes expect the GBP/THB range to be 45/50 for a very long time. Like everyone else I also see USD bouncing from its highs but funds repatriation are likely to prevent that for at least three months, more probably four or five. The only possible wild card is the BOT position on Baht strength and the strength of the Thai economy in that time frame. Pound Sterling? It only has one way to go unfortunately!

Yes probably. It's not looking good.

Stop crying Neil !

[HardenedSoul]

Many people seem to be avoiding the basic maths on the UK housing market.

Average wage: 24,000

Average House price: 185,000 (roughly I think)

You can stop counting at 5 x earnings!!

Yep, if you want to see freefall just watch UK housing.

Pound will bounce around 50-55 for a very long time now. It's not the end of the World, it's just an end to the free lunch the Brit's were getting.

I see GBP/USD heading for 1.45 sooner rather than later, certainly this year. If that materializes expect the GBP/THB range to be 45/50 for a very long time. Like everyone else I also see USD bouncing from its highs but funds repatriation are likely to prevent that for at least three months, more probably four or five. The only possible wild card is the BOT position on Baht strength and the strength of the Thai economy in that time frame. Pound Sterling? It only has one way to go unfortunately!

Worth buying precious metals with sterling given our government can't manipulate the price as well as the Americans'. There IS a reason why the price of gold pulls back sharply every day when the COMEX opens and I don't mind confessing that I've made profits shorting it pretty much every day for the last 3 months. Honestly, you can set your watch by it. The co-ordinated suppression of the gold price by central banks and their proxies is real and in effect . . . and i hate conspiracy theories

[lannarebirth]

Many people seem to be avoiding the basic maths on the UK housing market.

Average wage: 24,000

Average House price: 185,000 (roughly I think)

You can stop counting at 5 x earnings!!

Yep, if you want to see freefall just watch UK housing.

Pound will bounce around 50-55 for a very long time now. It's not the end of the World, it's just an end to the free lunch the Brit's were getting.

I see GBP/USD heading for 1.45 sooner rather than later, certainly this year. If that materializes expect the GBP/THB range to be 45/50 for a very long time. Like everyone else I also see USD bouncing from its highs but funds repatriation are likely to prevent that for at least three months, more probably four or five. The only possible wild card is the BOT position on Baht strength and the strength of the Thai economy in that time frame. Pound Sterling? It only has one way to go unfortunately!

Worth buying precious metals with sterling given our government can't manipulate the price as well as the Americans'. There IS a reason why the price of gold pulls back sharply every day when the COMEX opens and I don't mind confessing that I've made profits shorting it pretty much every day for the last 3 months. Honestly, you can set your watch by it. The co-ordinated suppression of the gold price by central banks and their proxies is real and in effect . . . and i hate conspiracy theories

I think it would be more accurate to say there IS a reason that Gold gets run up prior to Comex market open. That reason is there's very little liquidity before market open and it's easier to move the price. Who wouldn't rather sell into a gap up?

[chiang mai]

Many people seem to be avoiding the basic maths on the UK housing market.

Average wage: 24,000

Average House price: 185,000 (roughly I think)

You can stop counting at 5 x earnings!!

Yep, if you want to see freefall just watch UK housing.

Pound will bounce around 50-55 for a very long time now. It's not the end of the World, it's just an end to the free lunch the Brit's were getting.

I see GBP/USD heading for 1.45 sooner rather than later, certainly this year. If that materializes expect the GBP/THB range to be 45/50 for a very long time. Like everyone else I also see USD bouncing from its highs but funds repatriation are likely to prevent that for at least three months, more probably four or five. The only possible wild card is the BOT position on Baht strength and the strength of the Thai economy in that time frame. Pound Sterling? It only has one way to go unfortunately!

Worth buying precious metals with sterling given our government can't manipulate the price as well as the Americans'. There IS a reason why the price of gold pulls back sharply every day when the COMEX opens and I don't mind confessing that I've made profits shorting it pretty much every day for the last 3 months. Honestly, you can set your watch by it. The co-ordinated suppression of the gold price by central banks and their proxies is real and in effect . . . and i hate conspiracy theories

For the moment I'm OK having sold GBP for USD and that moves alone has shown a near 25% gain over two months and there's still some way to go before bottom. I must confess that I am having difficulty trying to decide what I should move into when I sell out of USD. I suppose Gold might be a candidate, real estate almost certainly won't be and equities, really doubtful. Must confess that I get something of a chuckle out of seeing posts (not necessarily on TV) where people proclaim that the time is now right to get back into equities or that real estate has bottomed and my aren't the returns on BTL fabulous. There's a lot of folks out there in denial who think this is all like catching a cold, take an aspirin and get some sleep, it'll all be better tomorrow - but it's really not like that this time.

[lannarebirth]

Many people seem to be avoiding the basic maths on the UK housing market.

Average wage: 24,000

Average House price: 185,000 (roughly I think)

You can stop counting at 5 x earnings!!

Yep, if you want to see freefall just watch UK housing.

Pound will bounce around 50-55 for a very long time now. It's not the end of the World, it's just an end to the free lunch the Brit's were getting.

I see GBP/USD heading for 1.45 sooner rather than later, certainly this year. If that materializes expect the GBP/THB range to be 45/50 for a very long time. Like everyone else I also see USD bouncing from its highs but funds repatriation are likely to prevent that for at least three months, more probably four or five. The only possible wild card is the BOT position on Baht strength and the strength of the Thai economy in that time frame. Pound Sterling? It only has one way to go unfortunately!

Worth buying precious metals with sterling given our government can't manipulate the price as well as the Americans'. There IS a reason why the price of gold pulls back sharply every day when the COMEX opens and I don't mind confessing that I've made profits shorting it pretty much every day for the last 3 months. Honestly, you can set your watch by it. The co-ordinated suppression of the gold price by central banks and their proxies is real and in effect . . . and i hate conspiracy theories

For the moment I'm OK having sold GBP for USD and that moves alone has shown a near 25% gain over two months and there's still some way to go before bottom. I must confess that I am having difficulty trying to decide what I should move into when I sell out of USD. I suppose Gold might be a candidate, real estate almost certainly won't be and equities, really doubtful. Must confess that I get something of a chuckle out of seeing posts (not necessarily on TV) where people proclaim that the time is now right to get back into equities or that real estate has bottomed and my aren't the returns on BTL fabulous. There's a lot of folks out there in denial who think this is all like catching a cold, take an aspirin and get some sleep, it'll all be better tomorrow - but it's really not like that this time.

If you think $USD will appreciate against GBP, why would you sell your position? Read your Jesse Livermore.

[chiang mai]

Many people seem to be avoiding the basic maths on the UK housing market.

Average wage: 24,000

Average House price: 185,000 (roughly I think)

You can stop counting at 5 x earnings!!

Yep, if you want to see freefall just watch UK housing.

Pound will bounce around 50-55 for a very long time now. It's not the end of the World, it's just an end to the free lunch the Brit's were getting.

I see GBP/USD heading for 1.45 sooner rather than later, certainly this year. If that materializes expect the GBP/THB range to be 45/50 for a very long time. Like everyone else I also see USD bouncing from its highs but funds repatriation are likely to prevent that for at least three months, more probably four or five. The only possible wild card is the BOT position on Baht strength and the strength of the Thai economy in that time frame. Pound Sterling? It only has one way to go unfortunately!

Worth buying precious metals with sterling given our government can't manipulate the price as well as the Americans'. There IS a reason why the price of gold pulls back sharply every day when the COMEX opens and I don't mind confessing that I've made profits shorting it pretty much every day for the last 3 months. Honestly, you can set your watch by it. The co-ordinated suppression of the gold price by central banks and their proxies is real and in effect . . . and i hate conspiracy theories

For the moment I'm OK having sold GBP for USD and that moves alone has shown a near 25% gain over two months and there's still some way to go before bottom. I must confess that I am having difficulty trying to decide what I should move into when I sell out of USD. I suppose Gold might be a candidate, real estate almost certainly won't be and equities, really doubtful. Must confess that I get something of a chuckle out of seeing posts (not necessarily on TV) where people proclaim that the time is now right to get back into equities or that real estate has bottomed and my aren't the returns on BTL fabulous. There's a lot of folks out there in denial who think this is all like catching a cold, take an aspirin and get some sleep, it'll all be better tomorrow - but it's really not like that this time.

If you think $USD will appreciate against GBP, why would you sell your position? Read your Jesse Livermore.

I was referring to the point in time when USD begins to depreciate (or bounce) against GBP and many observers see that taking place in around three to five months time so my previous post was kind of a look ahead and thinking aloud about what then and what next. Regardless, I will seek out Jesse and see what he has to say, thanks.

[snuggzzz]

Here in 'Blighty' the pound has indeed plummeted, the USD is a slightly better prospect, however, the worst is yet to come, trade, exports and imports will be hit by the crisis, travelling restricted by economic reasons, hence no holidays abroad, I respectfully suggest Sir's , Ladies,that this topic be reviewed in about 6-9 months time.

Everything now is sheer speculation........

[chiang mai]

Here in 'Blighty' the pound has indeed plummeted, the USD is a slightly better prospect, however, the worst is yet to come, trade, exports and imports will be hit by the crisis, travelling restricted by economic reasons, hence no holidays abroad, I respectfully suggest Sir's , Ladies,that this topic be reviewed in about 6-9 months time.

Everything now is sheer speculation........

There was a poster some two or three months ago who responded to my efforts to get holders of GBP to hedge, this before USD started its climb. His response was to say that he preferred to leave his GBP on deposit at 6.5% and that the idea of switching to USD and getting a paltry 2.5% was unacceptable - he did however agree to review things in three to six months. Six months on he's lost 25% of his investment value - these things need reviewing daily, if indeed you want to make (or not lose) money.

[MJP]

Here in 'Blighty' the pound has indeed plummeted, the USD is a slightly better prospect, however, the worst is yet to come, trade, exports and imports will be hit by the crisis, travelling restricted by economic reasons, hence no holidays abroad, I respectfully suggest Sir's , Ladies,that this topic be reviewed in about 6-9 months time.

Everything now is sheer speculation........

There was a poster some two or three months ago who responded to my efforts to get holders of GBP to hedge, this before USD started its climb. His response was to say that he preferred to leave his GBP on deposit at 6.5% and that the idea of switching to USD and getting a paltry 2.5% was unacceptable - he did however agree to review things in three to six months. Six months on he's lost 25% of his investment value - these things need reviewing daily, if indeed you want to make (or not lose) money.

Especially with THB. A volatile currency like this requires twice daily checking a good Forex broker to do Spot Trades.

Long term GBP is screwed, but I expect volatile spikes now and again to get out of GBP position.

[HardenedSoul]

Here in 'Blighty' the pound has indeed plummeted, the USD is a slightly better prospect, however, the worst is yet to come, trade, exports and imports will be hit by the crisis, travelling restricted by economic reasons, hence no holidays abroad, I respectfully suggest Sir's , Ladies,that this topic be reviewed in about 6-9 months time.

Everything now is sheer speculation........

You're right, of course, but only up to a point. It was "speculation" that the UK property market would collapse but there was never any doubt at all that a market in which even well-paid people were having to borrow 6 times their incomes to buy a rabbit-hutch would simply have to fall.

I realise that speculation on currency fluctuations is a specialist subject beyond the grasp of your average barside pundit at the Dog & Handgun in Catford but I think it's fair to say that if we look back on the events that have hallmarked the progress of this financial crisis, we'll find that, without exception, our leaders, bankers and economists have consistently gotten it wrong. The banking sector's assurances that the two Bear Stearns-owned hedge funds that went to the wall on the back of sub-prime would not impact upon the rest of the financial system turned out to be lies. As the sub-prime debacle deepened, we were again assured that it was contained. As the huge write-downs began, again we were told that it wouldn't affect the "real" economy. As Northern Rock went down, we were promised there was no wider systemic risk even as customers queued around the block. We were then told that the property market would slow, stagnate and pause for breath before sprinting off to the upside again. You get my drift . . .

Now, after the world's financial system has looked into the abyss and found nothing looking back at it, we're told that safe-haven can be found in the world's reserve currency, the US dollar. I dunno about everybody else but I just don't believe it.

How can one find safe-haven in a currency backed by a government with a $10 TRILLION deficit. A government that jawboned with hawkish rhetoric convincing the entire planet that the next move in interest rates was likely to be UP. A government that has, to all intents and purposes, guaranteed to cough up money to meet the TRILLIONS of dollars of credit default swap liabilities of the banks in which it now holds significant equity should a major counterparty like a hedge fund go under. A government that swears blind to the Chinese, Russians, Japanese and the Gulf nations that inflation is at 5.x% and that their trillions in US bonds are good to go cos they're backed by Uncle Sam. A government which lent an insurer $85bn, then another $36bn and has now relaxed the terms of those loans and increased the lifeline to $150bn because they would have forced the company's bankruptcy. A government which is set to bail out the big three automakers or risk losing at least 5 million jobs. A government which can do nothing but watch as the price of insuring against it defaulting on its debt soars every day.

There is speculation and there is the simple common sense that tells you when you are being lied to at every turn. The dollar will collapse and heaven help those still on the bandwagon when it does.

Edited November 11, 2008 by HardenedSoul

[MJP]

Here in 'Blighty' the pound has indeed plummeted, the USD is a slightly better prospect, however, the worst is yet to come, trade, exports and imports will be hit by the crisis, travelling restricted by economic reasons, hence no holidays abroad, I respectfully suggest Sir's , Ladies,that this topic be reviewed in about 6-9 months time.

Everything now is sheer speculation........

You're right, of course, but only up to a point. It was "speculation" that the UK property market would collapse but there was never any doubt at all that a market in which even well-paid people were having to borrow 6 times their incomes to buy a rabbit-hutch would simply have to fall.

I realise that speculation on currency fluctuations is a specialist subject beyond the grasp of your average barside pundit at the Dog & Handgun in Catford but I think it's fair to say that if we look back on the events that have hallmarked the progress of this financial crisis, we'll find that, without exception, our leaders, bankers and economists have consistently gotten it wrong. The banking sector's assurances that the two Bear Stearns-owned hedge funds that went to the wall on the back of sub-prime would not impact upon the rest of the financial system turned out to be lies. As the sub-prime debacle deepened, we were again assured that it was contained. As the huge write-downs began, again we were told that it wouldn't affect the "real" economy. As Northern Rock went down, we were promised there was no wider systemic risk even as customers queued around the block. We were then told that the property market would slow, stagnate and pause for breath before sprinting off to the upside again. You get my drift . . .

Now, after the world's financial system has looked into the abyss and found nothing looking back at it, we're told that safe-haven can be found in the world's reserve currency, the US dollar. I dunno about everybody else but I just don't believe it.

How can one find safe-haven in a currency backed by a government with a $10 TRILLION deficit. A government that jawboned with hawkish rhetoric convincing the entire planet that the next move in interest rates was likely to be UP. A government that has, to all intents and purposes, guaranteed to cough up money to meet the TRILLIONS of dollars of credit default swap liabilities of the banks in which it now holds significant equity should a major counterparty like a hedge fund go under. A government that swears blind to the Chinese, Russians, Japanese and the Gulf nations that inflation is at 5.x% and that their trillions in US bonds are good to go cos they're backed by Uncle Sam. A government which lent an insurer $85bn, then another $36bn and has now relaxed the terms of those loans and increased the lifeline to $150bn because they would have forced the company's bankruptcy. A government which is set to bail out the big three automakers or risk losing at least 5 million jobs. A government which can do nothing but watch as the price of insuring against it defaulting on its debt soars every day.

There is speculation and there is the simple common sense that tells you when you are being lied to at every turn. The dollar will collapse and heaven help those still on the bandwagon when it does.

Are you Dr. Bubb by any chance? Or perhaps CGNAO?

HPC, GEI?

[lannarebirth]

Don't think, look!

[HardenedSoul]

Are you Dr. Bubb by any chance? Or perhaps CGNAO?

HPC, GEI?

No, but those guys did get me thinking enough to do a LOT of reading and research. Having said that, I was always baffled as to why so many otherwise bright people seemed to put so much trust in governments given their propensity to lie to us about nigh on everything.

[MJP]

Are you Dr. Bubb by any chance? Or perhaps CGNAO?

HPC, GEI?

No, but those guys did get me thinking enough to do a LOT of reading and research. Having said that, I was always baffled as to why so many otherwise bright people seemed to put so much trust in governments given their propensity to lie to us about nigh on everything.

Go on, who are you on HPC?

I'm yrraP .rM.

[HardenedSoul]

Are you Dr. Bubb by any chance? Or perhaps CGNAO?

HPC, GEI?

No, but those guys did get me thinking enough to do a LOT of reading and research. Having said that, I was always baffled as to why so many otherwise bright people seemed to put so much trust in governments given their propensity to lie to us about nigh on everything.

Go on, who are you on HPC?

I'm yrraP .rM.

Honestly, I don't post there. I lurked for a few months but couldn't be bothered once I'd sold my apartment in August last year. Few weeks before Northern Wreck, actually

[Hairy]

Don't think, look!

"Ignore the propaganda. Focus on what you see."

Example:

[lannarebirth]

Don't think, look!

"Ignore the propaganda. Focus on what you see."

Example:

That's amusing but not particularly applicable. This thread is about making and losing money. It's not about the reasons why it's going up or down. That's completely irrelevant and to focus on it too much will guarantee you will be positioned wrong. Good Luck.

[maccaroni man]

Here in 'Blighty' the pound has indeed plummeted, the USD is a slightly better prospect, however, the worst is yet to come, trade, exports and imports will be hit by the crisis, travelling restricted by economic reasons, hence no holidays abroad, I respectfully suggest Sir's , Ladies,that this topic be reviewed in about 6-9 months time.

Everything now is sheer speculation........

You're right, of course, but only up to a point. It was "speculation" that the UK property market would collapse but there was never any doubt at all that a market in which even well-paid people were having to borrow 6 times their incomes to buy a rabbit-hutch would simply have to fall.

I realise that speculation on currency fluctuations is a specialist subject beyond the grasp of your average barside pundit at the Dog & Handgun in Catford but I think it's fair to say that if we look back on the events that have hallmarked the progress of this financial crisis, we'll find that, without exception, our leaders, bankers and economists have consistently gotten it wrong. The banking sector's assurances that the two Bear Stearns-owned hedge funds that went to the wall on the back of sub-prime would not impact upon the rest of the financial system turned out to be lies. As the sub-prime debacle deepened, we were again assured that it was contained. As the huge write-downs began, again we were told that it wouldn't affect the "real" economy. As Northern Rock went down, we were promised there was no wider systemic risk even as customers queued around the block. We were then told that the property market would slow, stagnate and pause for breath before sprinting off to the upside again. You get my drift . . .

Now, after the world's financial system has looked into the abyss and found nothing looking back at it, we're told that safe-haven can be found in the world's reserve currency, the US dollar. I dunno about everybody else but I just don't believe it.

How can one find safe-haven in a currency backed by a government with a $10 TRILLION deficit. A government that jawboned with hawkish rhetoric convincing the entire planet that the next move in interest rates was likely to be UP. A government that has, to all intents and purposes, guaranteed to cough up money to meet the TRILLIONS of dollars of credit default swap liabilities of the banks in which it now holds significant equity should a major counterparty like a hedge fund go under. A government that swears blind to the Chinese, Russians, Japanese and the Gulf nations that inflation is at 5.x% and that their trillions in US bonds are good to go cos they're backed by Uncle Sam. A government which lent an insurer $85bn, then another $36bn and has now relaxed the terms of those loans and increased the lifeline to $150bn because they would have forced the company's bankruptcy. A government which is set to bail out the big three automakers or risk losing at least 5 million jobs. A government which can do nothing but watch as the price of insuring against it defaulting on its debt soars every day.

There is speculation and there is the simple common sense that tells you when you are being lied to at every turn. The dollar will collapse and heaven help those still on the bandwagon when it does.

I have never had any luck on currency trading so I am not going to say anything about the value of the dollar from an investment point of view however i will say that as long as the green back is the designated world currency via the world bank that there must be a rational to feel safe in holding the us dollar over say the pound, euro, ausi dollar, sing dollar etc.....

[HardenedSoul]

I have never had any luck on currency trading so I am not going to say anything about the value of the dollar from an investment point of view however i will say that as long as the green back is the designated world currency via the world bank that there must be a rational to feel safe in holding the us dollar over say the pound, euro, ausi dollar, sing dollar etc.....

Yes but as long as the greenback is backed by nothing more than the promise to pay by the US government (not to mention the desire of foreign governments to keep buying/holding US debt) I shall avoid it and most of the other fiat currencies like the plague.

On that point, I wondering how the Chinese are going to fund that $586bn stimulus package

[chiang mai]

I don't know about the Chinese problems but I do know that GBP is sinking rapidly against USD, testing 1.52 at present. It does seem however that the rate of fall of GBP/THB has slowed somewhat and whilst it's still falling it's not doing so at the same rate is was doing a week ago. We now know it's more or less a given that BOT is supporting THB by selling USD so as to maintain the current range but I now wonder if they are not doing the opposite with Sterling so as to maintain a semblance of a half way decent exchange rate. Seems far fetched and expensive solution I know but otherwise am unable to account for its slower decline - just why they don't let the Baht depreciate a little against USD remains a mystery (to me).

[cclub75]

We now know it's more or less a given that BOT is supporting THB by selling USD so as to maintain the current range but I now wonder if they are not doing the opposite with Sterling so as to maintain a semblance of a half way decent exchange rate. Seems far fetched and expensive solution I know but otherwise am unable to account for its slower decline - just why they don't let the Baht depreciate a little against USD remains a mystery (to me).

It's indeed a mystery.

Several hypothesis :

-they want to manage the pace, not the direction. Therefore THB will go down, but slowly. For instance, since 2 days, we had several hints about an interest cuts at the next meeting of BOT. It's a sign.

http://www.bangkokpost.com/breaking_news/b...s.php?id=131994

-we are totally wrong, and the BOT is not selling USD.

And if we look at the international reserves of the BOT (+ forward positions) we are going down... but a little bit (view per week).

http://www.bot.or.th/English/Statistics/Ec...lReserves.aspx#

(the BOT said in the past that reserves were 60 % in USD).

-GPB, EUR... those currencies are not really in competition for exports for Thailand (my point : UK doesn't produce what Thailand produces, therefore Thailand doesn't have to fear a higher THB in front of those currencies). Therefore, it's not in the thai interest to "manage" exchange rate EURTHB, GBPTHB. It would be too expensive. So the BOT stay quiet.

-For some reasons, they might prefer a stronger THB on short term, because of the problem of imports (high oil bills recently... and maybe some big expenses in the near future, mega project etc.)

-Thai Crisis has other theory, that he summarizes by : "no volume, no opportunities, no leverage, no future, no need : the THB is a non market."

to explain why the THB was not affected (and still not) by the violent deleveraging and moves we have on currencies (carry trade etc.).

http://thaicrisis.wordpress.com/2008/10/30...ied-to-the-usd/

Edited November 12, 2008 by cclub75

[HardenedSoul]

Dollar bullish ??

US Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson's just said that the purchase of illiquid assets on the balance sheets of the banks - the very basis of Congress's decision to pass the TARP - was NOT an effective use of the $700bn in taxpayers' money after all. Instead, he felt the purchase of STOCK in the US banks made more sense

So he goes to Congress, says the money's to buy Mickey Mouse mortgage backed securities, gets the poxy legislation passed and then buys a load of stock in banks which are still falling precipitously. One has to ask whether this was the plan all along seeing as he knew there was no way Congress and the people would stand for a huge bailout of the banks. Now he reckons that institutions and banks that securitize credit card, auto-loans and student loans will need help next.

I'm thinking of starting a company so I can ask for a bailout too because, mark my words, they're going to put up even more taxpayers' money within the next 3-6 months

Dump the buck . . . sharpish !

[lannarebirth]

Dollar bullish ??

Dump the buck . . . sharpish !

And replace it with what, exactly?

This?

[totlanh]

Dollar bullish ??

Dump the buck . . . sharpish !

And replace it with what, exactly?

This?

GBP plumeting badly today,currently $1.49

[LaoPo]

Dollar bullish ??

US Treasury Secretary, Hank Paulson's just said that the purchase of illiquid assets on the balance sheets of the banks - the very basis of Congress's decision to pass the TARP - was NOT an effective use of the $700bn in taxpayers' money after all. Instead, he felt the purchase of STOCK in the US banks made more sense

So he goes to Congress, says the money's to buy Mickey Mouse mortgage backed securities, gets the poxy legislation passed and then buys a load of stock in banks which are still falling precipitously. One has to ask whether this was the plan all along seeing as he knew there was no way Congress and the people would stand for a huge bailout of the banks. Now he reckons that institutions and banks that securitize credit card, auto-loans and student loans will need help next.

I'm thinking of starting a company so I can ask for a bailout too because, mark my words, they're going to put up even more taxpayers' money within the next 3-6 months

Dump the buck . . . sharpish !

....maybe buy an almost bankrupt bank...? works faster than setting up a company.

The -momentum- strong dollar has nothing to do with America's fundamentals. The country is bankrupt and the greenback will go down...rather sooner than later.

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Well, you got that going for you FWIW:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/pointfigure/

[LaoPo]

Dollar bullish ??

Dump the buck . . . sharpish !

And replace it with what, exactly?

This?

Yuan....? The Chinese economy is about the only country left which still shows growth, although declining.

But: "Growth in China's retail sales held near an 11-year high in October, rising 22% from a year earlier...."

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Chin...E-633C622994AE}

LaoPo

[MJP]

USD appreciating too fast. With their mentalfundas and the appreciation being purely technical (repatriation) surely USD is now a tightly wound spring.

[lannarebirth]

USD appreciating too fast. With their mentalfundas and the appreciation being purely technical (repatriation) surely USD is now a tightly wound spring.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but would you say the same about the Yen? Bad fundies and even greater appreciation. Euro, GBP, bad fundies too.

One thing about cycles is, they usually run to extremes.