Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[lannarebirth]

Well Thailand isn't exactly a model of fiscal prudence. There's an re-alignment going on and, at the moment, the pound's first up in the firing range. The dollar will be next now that investors are turning their noses up at sales of US Treasuries

Soon enough, the baht will be in trouble.

And last man standing is ?

[MJP]

Well Thailand isn't exactly a model of fiscal prudence. There's an re-alignment going on and, at the moment, the pound's first up in the firing range. The dollar will be next now that investors are turning their noses up at sales of US Treasuries

Soon enough, the baht will be in trouble.

Your right, only trouble is in the process the shooter is getting to many bullseyes

I feel you're reconciling yourself with our dire situation, Neil old chap.

[neil324]

Well Thailand isn't exactly a model of fiscal prudence. There's an re-alignment going on and, at the moment, the pound's first up in the firing range. The dollar will be next now that investors are turning their noses up at sales of US Treasuries

Soon enough, the baht will be in trouble.

Your right, only trouble is in the process the shooter is getting to many bullseyes

I feel you're reconciling yourself with our dire situation, Neil old chap.

You not on that plane yet m8?

Ive given up with the pound, but as pointed out the rest will be pulled in soon enough.

Edited November 14, 2008 by neil324

[MJP]

Well Thailand isn't exactly a model of fiscal prudence. There's an re-alignment going on and, at the moment, the pound's first up in the firing range. The dollar will be next now that investors are turning their noses up at sales of US Treasuries

Soon enough, the baht will be in trouble.

Your right, only trouble is in the process the shooter is getting to many bullseyes

I feel you're reconciling yourself with our dire situation, Neil old chap.

You not on that plane yet m8?

Ive given up with the pound, but as pointed out the rest will be pulled in soon enough.

Next week. Probably Thursday.

Doc's wanted to keep me here, but what d'they know?

[HardenedSoul]

And last man standing is ?

Gold

Plain & simple.

[neil324]

Well Thailand isn't exactly a model of fiscal prudence. There's an re-alignment going on and, at the moment, the pound's first up in the firing range. The dollar will be next now that investors are turning their noses up at sales of US Treasuries

Soon enough, the baht will be in trouble.

Your right, only trouble is in the process the shooter is getting to many bullseyes

I feel you're reconciling yourself with our dire situation, Neil old chap.

You not on that plane yet m8?

Ive given up with the pound, but as pointed out the rest will be pulled in soon enough.

Next week. Probably Thursday.

Doc's wanted to keep me here, but what d'they know?

You not booked up yet?

Yeh experts what do they know hey?

[Naam]

And last man standing is ?

Gold

Plain & simple.

i beg to differ and claim the only man standing that can be used for profitable [forex] trades is cash

[Naam]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

Well, they've realised that debt does not in actual fact equal wealth . . . after all this time.

In short, Britain's f£$ked!

there, there MJP! i wish i had besides my holdings an additional fistful millions of that f£$ked currency

[Cobalt60]

schadenfreude, I have a feeling that every one will have their turn, so lets not take too much pleasure in others misfortune just yet eh !

[MJP]

Well Thailand isn't exactly a model of fiscal prudence. There's an re-alignment going on and, at the moment, the pound's first up in the firing range. The dollar will be next now that investors are turning their noses up at sales of US Treasuries

Soon enough, the baht will be in trouble.

Your right, only trouble is in the process the shooter is getting to many bullseyes

I feel you're reconciling yourself with our dire situation, Neil old chap.

You not on that plane yet m8?

Ive given up with the pound, but as pointed out the rest will be pulled in soon enough.

Next week. Probably Thursday.

Doc's wanted to keep me here, but what d'they know?

You not booked up yet?

Yeh experts what do they know hey?

Treat it like a bus ticket. Just get an e-ticket a couple of days beforehand. One-way this time on an 'O' Visa.

Experts, schmexperts!

[MJP]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

Well, they've realised that debt does not in actual fact equal wealth . . . after all this time.

In short, Britain's f£$ked!

there, there MJP! i wish i had besides my holdings an additional fistful millions of that f£$ked currency

Saw this coming years ago and did all the big spending at 75.75.

[MJP]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

Well, they've realised that debt does not in actual fact equal wealth . . . after all this time.

In short, Britain's f£$ked!

there, there MJP! i wish i had besides my holdings an additional fistful millions of that f£$ked currency

Saw this coming years ago and did all the big spending at 75.75.

[cclub75]

Meanwhile, GBP/USD is around 1.49 although 1.45 was tested overnight. Many brokers have now turned bullish and think that GBP has been beaten up enough, perhaps a bit too much. Nomura is calling bottom at 1.40 with a long term base around 1.55 and for reasons that I can't quantify, that seems to fit = certainly, the December rate cuts of between half and one per cent seem to be priced in already.

At that point, interest rates differentials are certainly not the only factor.

UK seems to have a big problem with money supply... recession has just begun... it will be severe, proportionally to the place of the financial industry in UK economy, money is flying out... the pressure is mounting on GBP... it might be only the beginning.

(from a blog in french)

http://www.jpchevallier.com/article-24757836.html

% GDP------M1----------M3

UK----------79----------158

USA---------10----------?

UE-----------42----------100

When the heat is on... what would you prefer ? A currency, backed by the US or the UE... eventhough we all agree the situation is not good there... or a currency backed :

-by a population of 61 millions only

-by a country where "financial services accounted for 10.1 per cent of UK GDP, and for 14 per cent of UK GDP when added to associated services such as legal, accounting and management consultancy. Financial services also account for roughly one in 30 jobs in the UK. "

(source)

-by a country where the real estate bubble is even bigger than in the US

-by a country where the public debt will go above 100 % of GDP (after bank nationalisations)

-by a country where "Total personal debt among UK consumers has exceeded national income for the second consecutive year". UK consumers now owe £1,444 billion, while GDP stands at £1,410, according to the latest available data (source)

It's reasonable to get out. And this is exactly what is happening. People are getting out the GBP...

[HardenedSoul]

And last man standing is ?

Gold

Plain & simple.

i beg to differ and claim the only man standing that can be used for profitable [forex] trades is cash

Cash held in which currency ? What's the point in holding cash if it loses some of its value every day it sits in your bank/forex trading account ?

There is a massive migration of wealth and economic power from West to East and although our western cultures tend to regard gold as a "barbarous relic", Eastern cultures do NOT. Westerners simply cannot imagine paying for goods and services in gold (neither can I, to be honest) but we're going to have to get used to the fact that if those with the wealth regard gold as the ultimate store of wealth, then it makes sense to play along.

I have a flutter on forex from time to time but I make a lot more as sterling falls in value against my gold and silver stash plus I can have it paid out in the local currency of whichever country I happen to be in. Don't have to mince about with stop losses either

[cocopops]

And last man standing is ?

Gold

Plain & simple.

i beg to differ and claim the only man standing that can be used for profitable [forex] trades is cash

Cash held in which currency ? What's the point in holding cash if it loses some of its value every day it sits in your bank/forex trading account ?

There is a massive migration of wealth and economic power from West to East and although our western cultures tend to regard gold as a "barbarous relic", Eastern cultures do NOT. Westerners simply cannot imagine paying for goods and services in gold (neither can I, to be honest) but we're going to have to get used to the fact that if those with the wealth regard gold as the ultimate store of wealth, then it makes sense to play along.

Dollars. What else?

The idea that cash dollars are losing value in your bank account right now is subjective at best. It might, in some cases, be losing value against the loaf of bread you buy at the 7 or the new car you are after, but it is gaining value against all other asset classes. Housing in nearly every country, stocks on every exchange, all commodity funds, the list goes on...

The goldbugs tell a good story, and we shouldn't count them out yet. I keep a little physical gold myself, but not much. Every time an asset crashes, loans are called in, margin calls are made, and the number of dollars in the world shrinks. Less dollars, same amount of gold.

Folks sitting around mumbling crap they don't understand about "worthless dollars" or "printing presses", are in more trouble than they know.

[lannarebirth]

And last man standing is ?

Gold

Plain & simple.

Yeah, yeah, but we're talking about currencies. Last currency standing is?

[HardenedSoul]

And last man standing is ?

Gold

Plain & simple.

Yeah, yeah, but we're talking about currencies. Last currency standing is?

Gold

Plain & simple.

[BEENTHEREDONETHAT]

Zimbabwe dollar they have billions already printed

[lannarebirth]

And last man standing is ?

Gold

Plain & simple.

Yeah, yeah, but we're talking about currencies. Last currency standing is?

Gold

Plain & simple.

Simple s right.

Gold is not currently fungible for goods and services. While I agree it is a store of wealth, it is not a currency, which I define as a medium of exchange. When your child is sick will you give all your gold to the pharnacist in exchange for the required meds, if that's what he asks for? Yeah, probably. So what will you do the next day? You think all pensioners are going to be receiving small packets of gold dust in the mail each month?

Edited November 15, 2008 by lannarebirth

[midas]

From The Times

November 15, 2008

Gordon Brown risks run on the pound, says George Osborne

The British Chambers of Commerce also sounds a warning over the threat to the pound today. In its latest economic forecast, the BCC says that were markets to come to see likely sharp rises in public borrowing as reckless the pound “may plummet to dangerous new lows”.

the full article is here

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/poli...icle5158548.ece

[JamesC]

From The Times

November 15, 2008

Gordon Brown risks run on the pound, says George Osborne

The British Chambers of Commerce also sounds a warning over the threat to the pound today. In its latest economic forecast, the BCC says that were markets to come to see likely sharp rises in public borrowing as reckless the pound "may plummet to dangerous new lows".

the full article is here

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/poli...icle5158548.ece

I'm fairly sure I don't want to read this. Let's talk about the weather...

[bravingbangkok]

Can someone explain to me why the pound has free-falled against the baht ?

Well, they've realised that debt does not in actual fact equal wealth . . . after all this time.

In short, Britain's f£$ked!

there, there MJP! i wish i had besides my holdings an additional fistful millions of that f£$ked currency

Saw this coming years ago and did all the big spending at 75.75.

I to took a alrge amount of money during 70 days but I need to bring over some more....would do you think is the future of the pound/baht ? I have been told that the BOT is spending reserves in order to hold the baht, is this true ? and if so what would be the consequences of poor export on top of dwinderling reserves and political strife and maybe even spending all reserves. Is this a possibility ?

Much obliged

Edited November 15, 2008 by bravingbangkok

[neil324]

Well Thailand isn't exactly a model of fiscal prudence. There's an re-alignment going on and, at the moment, the pound's first up in the firing range. The dollar will be next now that investors are turning their noses up at sales of US Treasuries

Soon enough, the baht will be in trouble.

Your right, only trouble is in the process the shooter is getting to many bullseyes

I feel you're reconciling yourself with our dire situation, Neil old chap.

You not on that plane yet m8?

Ive given up with the pound, but as pointed out the rest will be pulled in soon enough.

Next week. Probably Thursday.

Doc's wanted to keep me here, but what d'they know?

You not booked up yet?

Yeh experts what do they know hey?

Treat it like a bus ticket. Just get an e-ticket a couple of days beforehand. One-way this time on an 'O' Visa.

Experts, schmexperts!

Always found you have your pants pulled over the price doing it that way.

Yes currency experts.....cheez...

Edited November 15, 2008 by neil324

[chiang mai]

From The Times

November 15, 2008

Gordon Brown risks run on the pound, says George Osborne

The British Chambers of Commerce also sounds a warning over the threat to the pound today. In its latest economic forecast, the BCC says that were markets to come to see likely sharp rises in public borrowing as reckless the pound "may plummet to dangerous new low s".

the full article is here

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/poli...icle5158548.ece

I'm fairly sure I don't want to read this. Let's talk about the weather...

Maybe the Bank of England could start selling Baht.

[HardenedSoul]

And last man standing is ?

Gold

Plain & simple.

i beg to differ and claim the only man standing that can be used for profitable [forex] trades is cash

Cash held in which currency ? What's the point in holding cash if it loses some of its value every day it sits in your bank/forex trading account ?

There is a massive migration of wealth and economic power from West to East and although our western cultures tend to regard gold as a "barbarous relic", Eastern cultures do NOT. Westerners simply cannot imagine paying for goods and services in gold (neither can I, to be honest) but we're going to have to get used to the fact that if those with the wealth regard gold as the ultimate store of wealth, then it makes sense to play along.

Dollars. What else?

The idea that cash dollars are losing value in your bank account right now is subjective at best. It might, in some cases, be losing value against the loaf of bread you buy at the 7 or the new car you are after, but it is gaining value against all other asset classes. Housing in nearly every country, stocks on every exchange, all commodity funds, the list goes on...

The goldbugs tell a good story, and we shouldn't count them out yet. I keep a little physical gold myself, but not much. Every time an asset crashes, loans are called in, margin calls are made, and the number of dollars in the world shrinks. Less dollars, same amount of gold.

Folks sitting around mumbling crap they don't understand about "worthless dollars" or "printing presses", are in more trouble than they know.

Look, there's nothing - I repeat, NOTHING - backing the US Dollar but the promise of the US government to pay and that's it. Yes, I realise that's the basis for every fiat currency but, as we've seen with sterling, the economic outlook there has been a sudden decline in investors' trust in that promise. I would venture that, had the BoE emulated the Fed and started easing rates, bailing out banks and sending out tax rebates to everyone long ago, the UK economy wouldn't have contracted as much as it did in Q3.

The US dollar is still the world's reserve currency, yes, but it is also the world's largest debtor nation. The world's creditor nations know their largest export market is on its knees and are asking why they should continue to hold US debt when its value is being systematically eroded by a government that's issuing huge amounts of additional debt to bailout its broken banks and, soon enough, its auto industry. The "strength" of the dollar is based on repatriation of funds to the US by investors liquidating assets abroad and parking the money in the perceived safety of Treasuries but with the woeful yields on short term bonds, how long do you really think that money will remain there earning a negative return ?

The US government will eventually end up guaranteeing the liabilities of ALL banks, insurers and corporate entities that are deemed too big or too interconnected to fail . . . and that group is growing by the week ! Very, VERY soon, the hoarding of dollars will end and volatility in equity markets will subside. When that happens, investors will exit Treasuries in a very disorderly fashion ! Bye bye dollar.

[HardenedSoul]

And last man standing is ?

Gold

Plain & simple.

Yeah, yeah, but we're talking about currencies. Last currency standing is?

Gold

Plain & simple.

Simple s right.

Gold is not currently fungible for goods and services. While I agree it is a store of wealth, it is not a currency, which I define as a medium of exchange. When your child is sick will you give all your gold to the pharnacist in exchange for the required meds, if that's what he asks for? Yeah, probably. So what will you do the next day? You think all pensioners are going to be receiving small packets of gold dust in the mail each month?

'Course not. I dunno about you, but I pay my bills outta my bank account by direct debit and I buy stuff on eBay via a Paypal account. The majority of my outgoings are done electronically ie digits on a screen. In Western economies, we're moving closer to a cashless society every year so who's to say those digits won't represent "goldgrams" instead of pounds, dollars and euros one day ? With all the wealth shifting to the East, if Asia and the Gulf states decide they want a gold-backed currency, I don't think we'll have any choice . . . . Read the following, then have a little think about things, there's a good lad . . .

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews...-36518320081115

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran has converted financial reserves into gold to avoid future problems, an adviser to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in comments published on Saturday, after the price of oil fell more than 60 percent from a peak in July.

Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, is under U.N. and U.S. sanctions over its disputed nuclear programme and is now also facing declining revenue from its oil exports after crude prices tumbled.

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/news_detail....&con_type=1

China's fears about the long-term viability of parking most of its reserves in US government bonds were triggered by Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's US$700 billion (HK$5.46 trillion) bailout plan, which may make the US budget deficit balloon to well over US$1 trillion this fiscal year.

Edited November 15, 2008 by HardenedSoul

[lannarebirth]

And last man standing is ?

Gold

Plain & simple.

Yeah, yeah, but we're talking about currencies. Last currency standing is?

Gold

Plain & simple.

Simple s right.

Gold is not currently fungible for goods and services. While I agree it is a store of wealth, it is not a currency, which I define as a medium of exchange. When your child is sick will you give all your gold to the pharnacist in exchange for the required meds, if that's what he asks for? Yeah, probably. So what will you do the next day? You think all pensioners are going to be receiving small packets of gold dust in the mail each month?

'Course not. I dunno about you, but I pay my bills outta my bank account by direct debit and I buy stuff on eBay via a Paypal account. The majority of my outgoings are done electronically ie digits on a screen. In Western economies, we're moving closer to a cashless society every year so who's to say those digits won't represent "goldgrams" instead of pounds, dollars and euros one day ? With all the wealth shifting to the East, if Asia and the Gulf states decide they want a gold-backed currency, I don't think we'll have any choice . . . .

A major problem with the Gold standard is, there just isn't enough Gold that's been mined to be representative of global economies. One of two things would have to happen, the price of Gold would have to skyrocket, and with it, everything else, as one would make constant comparisons of value. Or Gold stays somewhere near it's jewelry value and the price of everything else plunges to it's "compara tive value". I see neither of those things as like to happen, ever.

[LaoPo]

A major problem with the Gold standard is, there just isn't enough Gold that's been mined to be representative of global economies.

One of two things would have to happen,

1. the price of Gold would have to skyrocket, and with it, everything else, as one would make constant comparisons of value.

2. Or Gold stays somewhere near it's jewelry value and the price of everything else plunges to it's "comparative value".

I see neither of those things as like to happen, ever.

1. One to two years ago, in 2006/2007, Peter Schiff * was laughed at by every single economist when he predicted the financial crisis. Will be laughed at again ?

http://nl.youtube.com/watch?v=q9tzUwfqvJY $ 2.000 GOLD in 2009...or

http://nl.youtube.com/watch?v=iax_BsNICes&...feature=related $ 5.000 GOLD by 2012 ?

I hope most of you are able to watch these videos as he is predicting the fall of the DOLLAR as well.

2. see # 1

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schiff#Economic_views

&

* http://www.europac.net/

LaoPo

[OriginalPoster]

A major problem with the Gold standard is, there just isn't enough Gold that's been mined to be representative of global economies.

One of two things would have to happen,

1. the price of Gold would have to skyrocket, and with it, everything else, as one would make constant comparisons of value.

2. Or Gold stays somewhere near it's jewelry value and the price of everything else plunges to it's "comparative value".

I see neither of those things as like to happen, ever.

1. One to two years ago, in 2006/2007, Peter Schiff * was laughed at by every single economist when he predicted the financial crisis. Will be laughed at again ?

http://nl.youtube.com/watch?v=q9tzUwfqvJY $ 2.000 GOLD in 2009...or

http://nl.youtube.com/watch?v=iax_BsNICes&...feature=related $ 5.000 GOLD by 2012 ?

I hope most of you are able to watch these videos as he is predicting the fall of the DOLLAR as well.

2. see # 1

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schiff#Economic_views

&

* http://www.europac.net/

LaoPo

Great, the collapse came as he predicted. But at the same time, gold and many currencies fell 30% and the values of gold mining shares completely collapsed. I lost money following this guy's theme, but if it's cause to gloat that he was right in his macroecomonic theme, that's very nice for you.

Edited November 15, 2008 by OriginalPoster

[lannarebirth]

A major problem with the Gold standard is, there just isn't enough Gold that's been mined to be representative of global economies.

One of two things would have to happen,

1. the price of Gold would have to skyrocket, and with it, everything else, as one would make constant comparisons of value.

2. Or Gold stays somewhere near it's jewelry value and the price of everything else plunges to it's "comparative value".

I see neither of those things as like to happen, ever.

1. One to two years ago, in 2006/2007, Peter Schiff * was laughed at by every single economist when he predicted the financial crisis. Will be laughed at again ?

http://nl.youtube.com/watch?v=q9tzUwfqvJY $ 2.000 GOLD in 2009...or

http://nl.youtube.com/watch?v=iax_BsNICes&...feature=related $ 5.000 GOLD by 2012 ?

I hope most of you are able to watch these videos as he is predicting the fall of the DOLLAR as well.

2. see # 1

* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Schiff#Economic_views

&

* http://www.europac.net/

LaoPo

Great, the collapse came as he predicted. But at the same time, gold and many currencies fell 30% and the values of gold mining shares completely collapsed. I lost money following this guy's theme, but if it's cause to gloat that he was right in his macroecomonic theme, that's very nice for you.

I'm not laughing at this guy, I agree with him, and from before 2006 and 2007. Anyone paying attention could have seen it coming. It's the specific Gold Standard argument I have problems with. There's not enough Gold to have a global gold standard. If we did, the price would have to go up exponentially. If it did, the price of everything else would go up as it's comparative value to a small disc of not very useful metal would be high. That's what happened during the Dotcom bubble. Crap stocks took off and then good stocks went too high as they were comparatively better value than the dotcom stuff. Same goes for Gold.