Help . . . Is The £ Going Into Free-fall?

[Marvo]

See what the dollar is doing and is going to be doing in the near future. Dollar strong = Thai baht strong. With all the political termoil it is likely that the Thai economy is in for a tough time, especially with regards to the tourist industry. If the dollar stays strong and the Baht follows whoever is running the show in 6 months from now may have to devalue the baht again to try to lure back tourists etc. Only change as much as you have to.

There is no way the baht would be devalued to lure back tourists. It doesn't work like that. Tourism accounts for only 7% of GDP. Rice export prices are more important than tourists. It depends what you are exchanging against. So while it is true that the pound fell dramatically against the USD recently, as did the euro and aussie for that matter, the pound is not in freefall against the baht. In the last 3 years the GBPTHB hit it's lowest low at the end of December last year (about 57) Today it is 61.6. I expect to see further weakening of the baht considering the current political situation and state of the economy here which would further help on GBP xchange. The dollar has also strengthened against the baht.

Well, in another thread a few months back I mentioned a possible 4-5% devaluation and I see now that it is being requested of the govournment in order to help exports and a hard hit tourist industry. I don't think its an ' if ' anymore, more likely a when .

Bangyai, a timely bump of a "£ going into free-fall" thread! £1 = 56.6 baht (T/T)

All the BOT have to do is stop buying baht, using the billions of $ they have stashed from when they were buying $ (like there was no tomorrow) not all that long ago.

[VegasVic]

But with the Dollar so strong............

Slightly off topic but there's a lot of people around who this time last year were betting we would never, ever be saying that again.

How time flys.

Ah yes, those wondeful carefree days when the bulk of the thaivisa crew here were calling for the demise of the Dollar, alas there were a couple of us who told them to sell those Euros and Pounds and go long the Dollar (not too mention short oil and gold)

[unforgiven]

Hi guys . . . .

we're about to sign the contract to start building our house

and I need to transfer 750.000 bht soonish (next 3 weeks)

Would you

transfer now

transfer later

mixture of the two?

Every time I check the rate it's dropped another few satngs.

Just my luck to be stuck in the UK in July when the rate was much better!

David

PS Can I go into my Thai bank with a charged up debit card and take the lot out in one go?

transfer now,the baht is still strong but the knock on effect could and probably will have it weaken greatly in the 6-12 month horison

Edited October 22, 2008 by unforgiven

[unforgiven]

See what the dollar is doing and is going to be doing in the near future. Dollar strong = Thai baht strong. With all the political termoil it is likely that the Thai economy is in for a tough time, especially with regards to the tourist industry. If the dollar stays strong and the Baht follows whoever is running the show in 6 months from now may have to devalue the baht again to try to lure back tourists etc. Only change as much as you have to.

There is no way the baht would be devalued to lure back tourists. It doesn't work like that. Tourism accounts for only 7% of GDP. Rice export prices are more important than tourists. It depends what you are exchanging against. So while it is true that the pound fell dramatically against the USD recently, as did the euro and aussie for that matter, the pound is not in freefall against the baht. In the last 3 years the GBPTHB hit it's lowest low at the end of December last year (about 57) Today it is 61.6. I expect to see further weakening of the baht considering the current political situation and state of the economy here which would further help on GBP xchange. The dollar has also strengthened against the baht.

Well, in another thread a few months back I mentioned a possible 4-5% devaluation and I see now that it is being requested of the govournment in order to help exports and a hard hit tourist industry. I don't think its an ' if ' anymore, more likely a when .

Bangyai, a timely bump of a "£ going into free-fall" thread! £1 = 56.6 baht (T/T)

All the BOT have to do is stop buying baht, using the billions of $ they have stashed from when they were buying $ (like there was no tomorrow) not all that long ago.

where the fluff did you study microeconomics?????? you understand very little of it!

[Naam]

But with the Dollar so strong............

Slightly off topic but there's a lot of people around who this time last year were betting we would never, ever be saying that again.

How time flys.

Ah yes, those wondeful carefree days when the bulk of the thaivisa crew here were calling for the demise of the Dollar, alas there were a couple of us who told them to sell those Euros and Pounds and go long the Dollar (not too mention short oil and gold)

for the record Vic. this advice was not valid for nearly seven years and valid only for the last two months. those who listened to the big losers Goldman Sucks, Credit Suisse, UBS et al some years ago concerning a strengthening of USD are still licking their wounds. others who suffered a loss are inspite of that loss still sitting on comfortable piles of profits by SELLING USD VS. VIRTUALLY ANY CURRENCY except Zimbabwe Dollar.

sometimes things have to be spelled out clearly AND with relevant details. bullshitting not allowed on Thaivisa! neither openly or subtle. Klingon warriors are watching day and night trying to do their best to set records straight!

[VegasVic]

But with the Dollar so strong............

Slightly off topic but there's a lot of people around who this time last year were betting we would never, ever be saying that again.

How time flys.

Ah yes, those wondeful carefree days when the bulk of the thaivisa crew here were calling for the demise of the Dollar, alas there were a couple of us who told them to sell those Euros and Pounds and go long the Dollar (not too mention short oil and gold)

for the record Vic. this advice was not valid for nearly seven years and valid only for the last two months. those who listened to the big losers Goldman Sucks, Credit Suisse, UBS et al some years ago concerning a strengthening of USD are still licking their wounds. others who suffered a loss are inspite of that loss still sitting on comfortable piles of profits by SELLING USD VS. VIRTUALLY ANY CURRENCY except Zimbabwe Dollar.

sometimes things have to be spelled out clearly AND with relevant details. bullshitting not allowed on Thaivisa! neither openly or subtle. Klingon warriors are watching day and night trying to do their best to set records straight!

Yes, but then again it was I vegasvic who was making these calls 6 months ago not 7 years ago, and I did spell out clearly on numerous occasions when oil was in the upper $130's and Gold was near $1000 that everyone should short Oil and Gold and go long the Dollar Also if you remember the great battles that lao and I had a year ago about mainland chinese equities when I called for a 50% drop in the SSE BEFORE the Olympics, gee Naam I wonder just how much more clearly you need things laid out for you? Q.E.D.!

[barrella]

Please no flaming as all I do is read these threads on currencies I am not even near to an expert like most others seem to be on here.

I myself as a person that makes money in ฿’s and £’s and only spends money in ฿’s and £’s means the way these currencies move with each other dose not bother me too much at present, it’s just interesting to learn and read.

What I can not understand is that the amount of people that spend £’s only that are not based in the UK is tiny compared to the people that spend £’s only that live in the UK so small £ drops against ฿ $ ¥ € are not a major issue but there must be a point, maybe a floor of $1.50 to the £ (stabbing in the dark here)that there must be a step to stem the fall of the £ as so much is imported into the UK based and on $ value.

Thus if there is no resistance point to the £’s falling then the general cost of living for the average John in Bradford, Tong or Glasgow will just go crazy or we will be seeing big players in the staple retail area of the UK showing major losses on margin to keep turnover thus keeping mass buyer discounts from the producers and trading companies, worse case, loss of margins followed by a crashing of share prices then closure/buyouts.

The mid tear retailers like Sunbury’s, John Lewis, Next even Tesco if it gets really bad must be kacking it right now. The less said about DSGi and X kingfisher group COMET the better, If I owned shares in those guys I would be bailing yesterday.

See you all at the bottom.

[pkrv]

Please no flaming as all I do is read these threads on currencies I am not even near to an expert like most others seem to be on here.

I myself as a person that makes money in ฿'s and £'s and only spends money in ฿'s and £'s means the way these currencies move with each other dose not bother me too much at present, it's just interesting to learn and read.

What I can not understand is that the amount of people that spend £'s only that are not based in the UK is tiny compared to the people that spend £'s only that live in the UK so small £ drops against ฿ $ ¥ € are not a major issue but there must be a point, maybe a floor of $1.50 to the £ (stabbing in the dark here)that there must be a step to stem the fall of the £ as so much is imported into the UK based and on $ value.

Thus if there is no resistance point to the £'s falling then the general cost of living for the average John in Bradford, Tong or Glasgow will just go crazy or we will be seeing big players in the staple retail area of the UK showing major losses on margin to keep turnover thus keeping mass buyer discounts from the producers and trading companies, worse case, loss of margins followed by a crashing of share prices then closure/buyouts.

The mid tear retailers like Sunbury's, John Lewis, Next even Tesco if it gets really bad must be kacking it right now. The less said about DSGi and X kingfisher group COMET the better, If I owned shares in those guys I would be bailing yesterday.

See you all at the bottom.

The only thing of value here that I can offer is I note that people boast when it comes to the end of the line. Why should USD be so valuable now - I suspect no answer, in understandable terms (TRANSPARENCY)

[pkrv]

After slightly rising the pound had a large drop against the dollar today, what i find hard to understand is..two of the largest companies in the world make a huge cock up and run into billions or trillions of debt and have to bail out by the US goverment as there is no other option and guess what THE US DOLLAR RISES FASTER! i guess a moderate problem in the UK causes awful side effects for the pound but a world record debt take over reflects magically on the US Dollar (I guess huge unemployment, recession, people defaulting and the two companies who control 50% of the US mortgages going bankrupt is great).

These two companies are part of the reason the world economy is in such a mess, all started from the US but now all the yanks are cheering how good there baht/exchange rate is going to become while the rest of the world mop up the mess they started!

The UK has economy problems but nothing compared to the US...!

It is a common mistake for people to try to "understand" why something is happening. the smartest in the group will focus on the "what", rather than the "how" or "why". If you think this is hard to understand, a GBP below parity would be a real mindbender wouldn't it?

But without an understanding of even the basics that is not possible is it (fraction reserve lending)?. Look my own employment/industry has terms coming out of its ears. But of course this stuff can be condensed because we are ruled by a group who think things can continue in the same way. It cannot.

Edited October 22, 2008 by pkrv

[lannarebirth]

FWIW:

http://www.eyield.co.uk/myarea/introductio...ng_triangle.htm

http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDb...296Webster.html

[chiang mai]

FWIW:

http://www.eyield.co.uk/myarea/introductio...ng_triangle.htm

http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDb...296Webster.html

I am trying to reconcile "the eyelid" with the statements by the BOE Governor when he said, and I paraphrase, Sterling will fall quicker and further than we had previously imagined - overlayed on all of this is the knowledge that the BOE is going to cut base rates by a minimum of two percent over the next twelve months. It seems to me those things are at odds with each other and that there is, using this example, a really strong case to use the "what and why" to guide investments here. Putting this argument another way: the technical s suggest that USD has peaked whilst the BOE Governor and reality suggest the opposite as far as Sterling is concerned.

LRB will understand that I am not trying to undermine the usefulness of the technical approach nor to have a go at him personally in any way. I am however trying to bottom the notion that one should ignore the what and why of events.

[lannarebirth]

FWIW:

http://www.eyield.co.uk/myarea/introductio...ng_triangle.htm

http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDb...296Webster.html

I am trying to reconcile "the eyelid" with the statements by the BOE Governor when he said, and I paraphrase, Sterling will fall quicker and further than we had previously imagined - overlayed on all of this is the knowledge that the BOE is going to cut base rates by a minimum of two percent over the next twelve months. It seems to me those things are at odds with each other and that there is, using this example, a really strong case to use the "what and why" to guide investments here. Putting this argument another way: the technical s suggest that USD has peaked whilst the BOE Governor and reality suggest the opposite as far as Sterling is concerned.

LRB will understand that I am not trying to undermine the usefulness of the technical approach nor to have a go at him personally in any way. I am however trying to bottom the notion that one should ignore the what and why of events.

At what valuation were those comments made chiang mai? There's absolutely nothing technically to suggest the $USD has peaked. It keeps breaking resistance points I thought it couldn't, everyday. There's a lot to suggest it's "extended", but it has been for quite a while. There's also new information that suggests it's 10,20, 40 week cycles are becoming "right translated". which is bullish. I say all this in the context of not knowing if the $USD has even reached a final LT bottom. I'm just telling you what it's doing.

I posted that GBP chart as it reached the bottom of the pattern I had previously posted, when it was at 2.10 and "2.20 looked easily in the cards". While, IMO it's a bearish pattern that resolves lower, it "might" be a good place to take a flier on it for a final bounce , if indeed the suggested pattern is in play.

You know chiang mai. I don't post this stuff to annoy or inflame, but only as to provide a signpost for something people seem to have quite a bit of interest in. I try to withhold my opinions as much as I can. Just the facts, which you sure as hel_l won't get from some central banker.

[lannarebirth]

BTW, I didn't mean to infer that the "why" isn't important. It is. It's just that it almost always comes later, after significant price moves have already taken place. If one needs a "why", they need look no further than the little bar graph Naam posted regarding European bankk deposits as % of GDP. After the moves have taken place, there will be lots of "why" evidence.

[Marvo]

..........

You know chiang mai. I don't post this stuff to annoy or inflame, but only as to provide a signpost for something people seem to have quite a bit of interest in. I try to withhold my opinions as much as I can. Just the facts, which you sure as hel_l won't get from some central banker.

Just a quick thanks, lannarebirth, for your time and effort posting. From one of the "people who seem to have quite a bit of interest in...."

[DavidOxon]

So LB, is that image of 3 peaks and 3 valleys with a 4th peak to come, or 3 peaks, 2 valleys and a cliff edge.

David (Who really has no clue about anything!)

[cmsally]

So LB, is that image of 3 peaks and 3 valleys with a 4th peak to come, or 3 peaks, 2 valleys and a cliff edge.

David (Who really has no clue about anything!)

Unless I'm mistaken the big upside down red candle means we are in for an upswing - big one or small one though.

PS I don't have a clue either

[DavidOxon]

What big upside down red candle?

[cmsally]

What big upside down red candle?

Darn it, just as I thought I was getting the hang of it, there are other upside down red candles that continue on a down.

[chiang mai]

FWIW:

http://www.eyield.co.uk/myarea/introductio...ng_triangle.htm

http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDb...296Webster.html

I am trying to reconcile "the eyelid" with the statements by the BOE Governor when he said, and I paraphrase, Sterling will fall quicker and further than we had previously imagined - overlayed on all of this is the knowledge that the BOE is going to cut base rates by a minimum of two percent over the next twelve months. It seems to me those things are at odds with each other and that there is, using this example, a really strong case to use the "what and why" to guide investments here. Putting this argument another way: the technical s suggest that USD has peaked whilst the BOE Governor and reality suggest the opposite as far as Sterling is concerned.

LRB will understand that I am not trying to undermine the usefulness of the technical approach nor to have a go at him personally in any way. I am however trying to bottom the notion that one should ignore the what and why of events.

At what valuation were those comments made chiang mai? There's absolutely nothing technically to suggest the $USD has peaked. It keeps breaking resistance points I thought it couldn't, everyday. There's a lot to suggest it's "extended", but it has been for quite a while. There's also new information that suggests it's 10,20, 40 week cycles are becoming "right translated". which is bullish. I say all this in the context of not knowing if the $USD has even reached a final LT bottom. I'm just telling you what it's doing.

I posted that GBP chart as it reached the bottom of the pattern I had previously posted, when it was at 2.10 and "2.20 looked easily in the cards". While, IMO it's a bearish pattern that resolves lower, it "might" be a good place to take a flier on it for a final bounce , if indeed the suggested pattern is in play.

You know chiang mai. I don't post this stuff to annoy or inflame, but only as to provide a signpost for something people seem to have quite a bit of interest in. I try to withhold my opinions as much as I can. Just the facts, which you sure as hel_l won't get from some central banker.

Firstly I must say that I am really pleased that you do post such charts because the charts (if only I understood them fully) , combined with your views, aids my learning process enormously and I think I speak for the other TV viewers who share an interest in this subject - the idea that you might be flaming is not even a consideration and is a remark from left field. In fact, try running a course on all of this and I will be the first to sign up, even if I don't live in Chiang Mai! But getting back to the point I raised regarding charts versus an interpretation of events:

The dramatic fall in GBP/USD was started by Mervyn Kings speech, one of three speeches he gives each year that are regarded as being very important and as a result they are widely watched. That speech caused a six cent fall in GBP and it was followed one day later by our illustrious PM who echoed Mervyn's views and that resulted in a further 4.5% fall - all of this over three days. It does seem to me that the fallout from Mervyn's speech was entirely predictable in a country where decorum and understatement are the norm. I for one gambled that the results would be a substantial fall in GBP/USD following a three week period of dithering on the part of the pair around 1.75. I'm sure you will tell me that the charts forecast such a possibility but my query is whether the charts are really that important, under such circumstances, it all seems to me to be common sense stuff - if this happens over here, that will happen as a result over there.

[chiang mai]

What big upside down red candle?

Darn it, just as I thought I was getting the hang of it, there are other upside down red candles that continue on a down.

My info suggests the pair is now quite heavily oversold and that a correction is due, as LRB suggested earlier a final bounce perhaps. But having said that the trend continues downwards so I really don't know. What I have noticed is the way different markets at different times of the day impact the direction of the pair hence it may be that current time zone trading is not part of that picture. I for one hate making a gamble based on daytime UK/US market trends only to wake up at 4.0am to see that Australasian trade has reversed what I thought was a firm trend.

[whiterussian]

lannarebirth, ive been out of the markets for 1.5 years now, do you think the sentiment out there is that there is a continuation pattern forming, ie: this dive on all charts is 50% of a move..?

i know impossible to tell, but i need a week or so to add funds to my old accounts, and i cant bring myself to do so (for longs) as i cant see any reason why optimism should return to the markets. Its also too volatile for me to trade equities, i guess because everyone is thinking the same thing.. also, going short right now, when the mother of all short squeezes could be engineered by the powers that be..

i know many people are in cash now, waiting for a market revival. myself included.

thanks

Edited October 23, 2008 by UKWEBPRO

[lannarebirth]

Anyway, the chart I posted was merely to show, that the pattern that I had previously posted about here, that concerns the GBP has completed. It is an intermediate term pattern and "usually" portends longer term bearish movement. That it had reached the base of it's pattern "might" mean it is due a bounce, as the e-yield chart shows. It doesn't "have to " bounce here, but historically it tends to happen. As it is a bearish pattern and if it were me (I'm not suggesting what anyone else should do) I would look to the hoped for bounce as a point to either exit the GBP or hedge my exposure to it in someway. These things are easy to talk about inthe abstract, but I know that personal finances don't always allow for this kinds of machinations. I only posted it as an FYI for those who it may mean something to. Good Luck

BTW, here's a look at the LT chart. You couldn't call it bullish and you could say it looks similar to the 15 year ago chart:

Edited October 23, 2008 by lannarebirth

[VegasVic]

FWIW:

http://www.eyield.co.uk/myarea/introductio...ng_triangle.htm

http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDb...296Webster.html

I am trying to reconcile "the eyelid" with the statements by the BOE Governor when he said, and I paraphrase, Sterling will fall quicker and further than we had previously imagined - overlayed on all of this is the knowledge that the BOE is going to cut base rates by a minimum of two percent over the next twelve months. It seems to me those things are at odds with each other and that there is, using this example, a really strong case to use the "what and why" to guide investments here. Putting this argument another way: the technical s suggest that USD has peaked whilst the BOE Governor and reality suggest the opposite as far as Sterling is concerned.

LRB will understand that I am not trying to undermine the usefulness of the technical approach nor to have a go at him personally in any way. I am however trying to bottom the notion that one should ignore the what and why of events.

At what valuation were those comments made chiang mai? There's absolutely nothing technically to suggest the $USD has peaked. It keeps breaking resistance points I thought it couldn't, everyday. There's a lot to suggest it's "extended", but it has been for quite a while. There's also new information that suggests it's 10,20, 40 week cycles are becoming "right translated". which is bullish. I say all this in the context of not knowing if the $USD has even reached a final LT bottom. I'm just telling you what it's doing.

I posted that GBP chart as it reached the bottom of the pattern I had previously posted, when it was at 2.10 and "2.20 looked easily in the cards". While, IMO it's a bearish pattern that resolves lower, it "might" be a good place to take a flier on it for a final bounce , if indeed the suggested pattern is in play.

You know chiang mai. I don't post this stuff to annoy or inflame, but only as to provide a signpost for something people seem to have quite a bit of interest in. I try to withhold my opinions as much as I can. Just the facts, which you sure as hel_l won't get from some central banker.

Firstly I must say that I am really pleased that you do post such charts because the charts (if only I understood them fully) , combined with your views, aids my learning process enormously and I think I speak for the other TV viewers who share an interest in this subject - the idea that you might be flaming is not even a consideration and is a remark from left field. In fact, try running a course on all of this and I will be the first to sign up, even if I don't live in Chiang Mai! But getting back to the point I raised regarding charts versus an interpretation of events:

The dramatic fall in GBP/USD was started by Mervyn Kings speech, one of three speeches he gives each year that are regarded as being very important and as a result they are widely watched. That speech caused a six cent fall in GBP and it was followed one day later by our illustrious PM who echoed Mervyn's views and that resulted in a further 4.5% fall - all of this over three days. It does seem to me that the fallout from Mervyn's speech was entirely predictable in a country where decorum and understatement are the norm. I for one gambled that the results would be a substantial fall in GBP/USD following a three week period of dithering on the part of the pair around 1.75. I'm sure you will tell me that the charts forecast such a possibility but my query is whether the charts are really that important, under such circumstances, it all seems to me to be common sense stuff - if this happens over here, that will happen as a result over there.

C.M. Oil is making a mini bull run to $69/bbl today in advance of what will likely be a 2 million bbl cut in OPEC production (of course OPEC has a very bad track record on sticking to its production cuts so any rally in Oil will likely be short lived) and the Pound is making a run back up to the $1.61 level, however I think that $1.60 Pound may be in danger of being breeched in Asian trading later today. As far as charts go, the chartists have never delt with the kind of simultaneous unwinding of the Yen carrytrade along with the unwinding of worldwide derivative contracts and massive hedge fund and Mutual fund redemtions. On a brighter note I see that while I have been posting the Pound broke through the $1.61 level and is currently at $1.6122

[lannarebirth]

FWIW:

http://www.eyield.co.uk/myarea/introductio...ng_triangle.htm

http://www.traders.com/Documentation/FEEDb...296Webster.html

I am trying to reconcile "the eyelid" with the statements by the BOE Governor when he said, and I paraphrase, Sterling will fall quicker and further than we had previously imagined - overlayed on all of this is the knowledge that the BOE is going to cut base rates by a minimum of two percent over the next twelve months. It seems to me those things are at odds with each other and that there is, using this example, a really strong case to use the "what and why" to guide investments here. Putting this argument another way: the technical s suggest that USD has peaked whilst the BOE Governor and reality suggest the opposite as far as Sterling is concerned.

LRB will understand that I am not trying to undermine the usefulness of the technical approach nor to have a go at him personally in any way. I am however trying to bottom the notion that one should ignore the what and why of events.

At what valuation were those comments made chiang mai? There's absolutely nothing technically to suggest the $USD has peaked. It keeps breaking resistance points I thought it couldn't, everyday. There's a lot to suggest it's "extended", but it has been for quite a while. There's also new information that suggests it's 10,20, 40 week cycles are becoming "right translated". which is bullish. I say all this in the context of not knowing if the $USD has even reached a final LT bottom. I'm just telling you what it's doing.

I posted that GBP chart as it reached the bottom of the pattern I had previously posted, when it was at 2.10 and "2.20 looked easily in the cards". While, IMO it's a bearish pattern that resolves lower, it "might" be a good place to take a flier on it for a final bounce , if indeed the suggested pattern is in play.

You know chiang mai. I don't post this stuff to annoy or inflame, but only as to provide a signpost for something people seem to have quite a bit of interest in. I try to withhold my opinions as much as I can. Just the facts, which you sure as hel_l won't get from some central banker.

Firstly I must say that I am really pleased that you do post such charts because the charts (if only I understood them fully) , combined with your views, aids my learning process enormously and I think I speak for the other TV viewers who share an interest in this subject - the idea that you might be flaming is not even a consideration and is a remark from left field. In fact, try running a course on all of this and I will be the first to sign up, even if I don't live in Chiang Mai! But getting back to the point I raised regarding charts versus an interpretation of events:

The dramatic fall in GBP/USD was started by Mervyn Kings speech, one of three speeches he gives each year that are regarded as being very important and as a result they are widely watched. That speech caused a six cent fall in GBP and it was followed one day later by our illustrious PM who echoed Mervyn's views and that resulted in a further 4.5% fall - all of this over three days. It does seem to me that the fallout from Mervyn's speech was entirely predictable in a country where decorum and understatement are the norm. I for one gambled that the results would be a substantial fall in GBP/USD following a three week period of dithering on the part of the pair around 1.75. I'm sure you will tell me that the charts forecast such a possibility but my query is whether the charts are really that important, under such circumstances, it all seems to me to be common sense stuff - if this happens over here, that will happen as a result over there.

C.M. Oil is making a mini bull run to $69/bbl today in advance of what will likely be a 2 million bbl cut in OPEC production (of course OPEC has a very bad track record on sticking to its production cuts so any rally in Oil will likely be short lived) and the Pound is making a run back up to the $1.61 level, however I think that $1.60 Pound may be in danger of being breeched in Asian trading later today. As far as charts go, the chartists have never delt with the kind of simultaneous unwinding of the Yen carrytrade along with the unwinding of worldwide derivative contracts and massive hedge fund and Mutual fund redemtions. On a brighter note I see that while I have been posting the Pound broke through the $1.61 level and is currently at $1.6122

Well Vic, I think the worst thing a trader or investor can do when looking at any asset class is to believe "this time is different". Having said that, I am on record, and I can hardly believe it myself, as saying "this time is different". It's a time to cover your behind, and focus on return of capital, rather than return on capital. Opportunities will present themselves in due time.

[Bizz]

Euro and British Pound Drop As Lehman CDS Deadline Increases Dollar Demand.

The Euro fell to its lowest level in nineteen months as the appetite for dollars was fueled by today’s deadline for settlement of Lehman Brothers CDS’s. Rumors are that banks and other sellers are hoarding cash to payout a estimated 91% loss on the investments. Meanwhile, France’s government announced the investment of 10.5 billion euros in the country’s largest banks including BNP Baribus SA, Societe Generale SA, and Agricole SA.

[Naam]

Well Vic, I think the worst thing a trader or investor can do when looking at any asset class is to believe "this time is different". Having said that, I am on record, and I can hardly believe it myself, as saying "this time is different". It's a time to cover your behind, and focus on return of capital, rather than return on capital. Opportunities will present themselves in due time.

i see opportunities daily since a week or two. and whenever the opportunity disease strikes and whispers in my ear "BUY BUY BUY!" i go out in my garden and start counting the floating plants in my pond. usually the attack subsides when my count reaches 389 (sometimes the number is higher) then i am strong enough to return to my screens, switch to general topics in Thaivisa and read most fascinating stories told by farangs in (or out of) Thailand

[syd barrett]

Perhaps the time has come for me to convert 50% of my GBP savings into Japanese Yen and Swiss Francs. This morning's financial papers suggest 1.50 by year end to the dollar, followed by a steady decrease in 2009 then parity some time in 2010. I am beginning to panic now, because a THB= less than 40 would be more than I could cope with. I would have to leave Thailand.

[bendix]

Parity my arse.

Ignore the papers - they get rent-a-comments from supposed experts from banks etc who have no idea what is happening. They all jump on bandwagons and spout forth forecasts (at the promptings of their PR departments) which have no basis in fact. Noone ever holds them accountable.

Case in point. In June a Goldman Sachs report suggested oil would hit $200-$220 a gallon by the end of this year. Rather mysteriously, that forecast has been lost. Last week they issued a new forecast that oil would fall to $50 by the end of this year.

[Bizz]

Nouriel Roubini: Worst is ahead of us - Recession Will Last At Least Two Years

15:41 EST Wednesday, Oct 22, 2008

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who has emerged as one of the leading commentators during this financial crisis, continues to say frightening things. His latest comments, made on CNBC, give a good overview of why markets have been roiled lately by economic news.

“The worst is still ahead of us,” Mr. Roubini said, noting that the flow of macro-economic news over the next several weeks and months will be worse than expected.

He believes that there will be a sharp decline in earnings, and not just for financial firms. Emerging markets, he said, will fall into crisis. And hundreds of hedge funds will close down, putting additional pressure on the stock market as they liquidate their positions, and making cash the best possible investment.

Yes, recent government actions have probably averted the risk of a systemic financial meltdown. But the risk of an L-shaped recession, where two years of economic contractions are followed by a lengthy period of subpar growth, is realistic. And that doesn't just apply to the United States, but to all developed economies, including Canada.

As for commodities, including oil, expect another 20 per cent slide.

Mr. Roubini is not uplifting, but you can't look away.

CNBC/The Globe & Mail

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27321400

LaoPo

Mr. Roubini certainly is correct about Oil going to $50/bbl and about the masive hedge fund liquidation (which in turn will give up some of the best equity bargains in the past 50 years ), but I doubt the recession will last two years, especially with all of the government intervention worldwide

Nouriel Roubini: Worst is ahead of us - Recession Will Last At Least Two Years

LaoPo

Mr. Roubini certainly is correct about Oil going to $50/bbl and about the masive hedge fund liquidation (which in turn will give up some of the best equity bargains in the past 50 years ), but I doubt the recession will last two years, especially with all of the government intervention worldwide

Nouriel is a skeptic and quite often a pessimist. but in my opinion he is quite optimistic in this respect. even though it depends on how exactly "recession" is defined i think it will take more than two years till the average global growth shows a plus again.

Parity my arse.

Ignore the papers - they get rent-a-comments from supposed experts from banks etc who have no idea what is happening. They all jump on bandwagons and spout forth forecasts (at the promptings of their PR departments) which have no basis in fact. Noone ever holds them accountable.

Case in point. In June a Goldman Sachs report suggested oil would hit $200-$220 a gallon by the end of this year. Rather mysteriously, that forecast has been lost. Last week they issued a new forecast that oil would fall to $50 by the end of this year.

Very true

To much panic on the streets

[VegasVic]

Perhaps the time has come for me to convert 50% of my GBP savings into Japanese Yen and Swiss Francs. This morning's financial papers suggest 1.50 by year end to the dollar, followed by a steady decrease in 2009 then parity some time in 2010. I am beginning to panic now, because a THB= less than 40 would be more than I could cope with. I would have to leave Thailand.

I think that there might be an outside chance the Euro could possibly reach parity with the Dollar in 2009, but things in the U.K. would have to get pretty bad for the pound to reach parity with the Dollar! With that said I think that the $1.50 mark could be breeched in the next 30 days, right now in asian trading the pound is right at $1.60, and the way things are going $1.59 could be in danger in European trading later today. Short term you might want to consider the Dollar, and longer term the Yen sounds about right. I am not quite sure about the Swiss Franc, perhaps Lanna can lend some advice there. On a spec play, gold mining stocks are begining to look very attractive at these levels as there seems to be a disconnect between the price of gold and the price of the gold mining shares, just an idea, best of luck