A Good Time To Get Into Oil?

[deejah]

last year when oil fell to 60 a barrel

(I had only seen such a dramatic decline once in many years around 97-98 i think)

i told everyone i know to invest in oil

i had no idea the payoff would come so soon

now that its around 100

i cant help but think its a good time to get in

futures and options to leverage your money

3 years out or more if possible

index or dividend paying funds for more protection

your thoughts

thanks and juk dee (god luck)

[GuestHouse]

I'm not sure about that but t's a very good time to be working in the Oil Industry!

[Soutpeel]

I'm not sure about that but t's a very good time to be working in the Oil Industry!

$ $ ...sure is....Dayrates going up by the week

[bangkokjackk]

last year when oil fell to 60 a barrel

(I had only seen such a dramatic decline once in many years around 97-98 i think)

i told everyone i know to invest in oil

i had no idea the payoff would come so soon

now that its around 100

i cant help but think its a good time to get in

futures and options to leverage your money

3 years out or more if possible

index or dividend paying funds for more protection

your thoughts

thanks and juk dee (god luck)

Its a good time if you have a crystal ball! Oil prices could go either way. You have to be able to predict the things that affect it. Production, demand, wars, technology, laws.

Just because oil was higher before it doesn't mean it will be as high again. Yes I would agree that it looks that way but if it's so obvious why doesnt everyone just jump in?

If Iraq and\or Afghanistan settle down oil production could be eased lowering prices to who knows how little a barrel. On the other hand if conflict flares up in Iran prices could peak again.

[MMR]

last year when oil fell to 60 a barrel

(I had only seen such a dramatic decline once in many years around 97-98 i think)

i told everyone i know to invest in oil

i had no idea the payoff would come so soon

now that its around 100

i cant help but think its a good time to get in

futures and options to leverage your money

3 years out or more if possible

index or dividend paying funds for more protection

your thoughts

thanks and juk dee (god luck)

Wait at least until the new year. Then re-assess

*advice I was given*

[midas]

last year when oil fell to 60 a barrel

(I had only seen such a dramatic decline once in many years around 97-98 i think)

i told everyone i know to invest in oil

i had no idea the payoff would come so soon

now that its around 100

i cant help but think its a good time to get in

futures and options to leverage your money

3 years out or more if possible

index or dividend paying funds for more protection

your thoughts

thanks and juk dee (god luck)

Wait at least until the new year. Then re-assess

The New Year could be too late because by then there

may be a Democrat in the White House and Israel

will not get the backing for an Iran air strike.

The nest 2-3 months is the " window of opportunity "

You could always try set up a " straddle " on the markets !

*advice I was given*

[Mighty Mouse]

If the world is sliding into a recession (or is already in one) then the demand for oil will decrease. Decreased demand, lower oil prices.

OPEC recently decided to cut production in an attempt to maintain prices but so far it has not stopped the price slide.

The gold price is taking a pounding as the oil price declines. This is usually a good indicator that of what lies ahead.

Is this a good time to invest in oil? I guess it depends on how long you think it will be before there is increased demand for the product.

[london]

Simply: you've already missed the boat. Oil is now getting back to more realistic levels.

Other opportunities will present themselves.....they always do.

IMO, commodities (ex oil) are oversold. Could be an interesting longer term play there.

[flying]

If the world is sliding into a recession (or is already in one) then the demand for oil will decrease. Decreased demand, lower oil prices.

OPEC recently decided to cut production in an attempt to maintain prices but so far it has not stopped the price slide.

The gold price is taking a pounding as the oil price declines. This is usually a good indicator that of what lies ahead.

Is this a good time to invest in oil? I guess it depends on how long you think it will be before there is increased demand for the product.

I noticed that on the news yesterday about OPEC cutting back.

I am glad & hope things do keep dropping.

But for the life of me I still feel abused at the pump

Gas is still $4.35 here in Hawaii a gallon

Why does it take so long for the price of gas to drop when crude has dropped 42 bucks a barrel? Yeah I know they say because ummm we bought the expensive crude.

Yet everytime crude went up the gas instantly follows.

I wish there was an alternative to being raped by this industry while they record record profits.

( sorry in advance to those here in that industry but that is IMHO )

[Groongthep]

I wish there was an alternative to being raped by this industry while they record record profits.

( sorry in advance to those here in that industry but that is IMHO )

This is a very common misconception. Oil is a commodity and it's price is controlled by the world's free market system, not by the big oil companies. The world's oil majors: Exxon Mobil, BP, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Total of France and Eni of Italy combined produce just 13 percent of the world's oil. But as big as they are, they are not big enough to set prices by themselves. The state owned oil producers such as Russia's Gazprom and the OPEC nations such as Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Nigeria and Iran are by far the largest producers of oil and are much more influential on oil prices than the private companies. The oil majors make huge profits as a result of their huge sales numbers but they only make about 8 cents for every dollar they spend to get their product to market. The profit margins in oil are less than in many other industries especially ones like telecoms, software and banking. Those companies are really raping the consumer but no one seems to complain too much about them. Oil companies are easy targets for misplaced anger which really should be directed at wasteful consumption and a lack of far sited-planning and development by the governments or the major oil consuming nations.

Edited September 11, 2008 by Groongthep

[flying]

This is a very common misconception. Oil is a commodity and it's price is controlled by the world's free market system, not by the big oil companies.

Yes thank You for the reply I do understand that. But in a sense they do control because the lack of alternatives.....They helped to create.

ie: buying ideas that reduce oil usage only to keep them from market.

Also the free market I believe is quite controlled by the powerful.

The profit margins in oil are less than in many other industries especially ones like telecoms, software and banking. Those companies are really raping the consumer but no one seems to complain too much about them.

Yes but I believe again that is because with those you mention the consumer has alternatives. Also they do not directly affect so many other markets. Like travel & the price of bringing food to market etc.

Oil companies are easy targets for misplaced anger which really should be directed at wasteful consumption and a lack of far sited-planning and development by the governments or the major oil consuming nations.

Yes when record profits are reported while the rest of the world suffers. They do tend to become *easy targets*

[Groongthep]

But in a sense they do control because the lack of alternatives.....They helped to create.

ie: buying ideas that reduce oil usage only to keep them from market.

Also the free market, I believe is quite controlled by the powerful.

I'm not defending the oil companies, it's just that all this scape goating will get us nowhere. In fact it may even hurt the situation. If all of the oil majors where nationalized by their respective countries the world price of oil would not change. The price is still controlled by supply and demand.

Your above quote implies some sort of sinister conspiracy. Sorry, I just don't buy it. Sounds like the plot to some silly Steven Seagal movie.

[flying]

I'm not defending the oil companies, it's just that all this scape goating will get us nowhere. In fact it may even hurt the situation. If all of the oil majors where nationalized by their respective countries the world price of oil would not change. The price is still controlled by supply and demand.

Your above quote implies some sort of sinister conspiracy. Sorry, I just don't buy it. Sounds like the plot to some silly Steven Seagal movie.

Yes I am sorry I did not mean to give that impression.

I am neither a supporter or a detractor really.

Like I said I just wish there was an alternative. It is almost like being an addict & dependent on something.

Hopefully someone will come up with a solution to it all. It is 2008 after all

I thought we would be further along

Sorry for pulling this thread OT

Edited September 12, 2008 by flying

[Wrong Turn]

Simply: you've already missed the boat. Oil is now getting back to more realistic levels.

Other opportunities will present themselves.....they always do.

IMO, commodities (ex oil) are oversold. Could be an interesting longer term play there.

Yes, there are other commodities to invest in, either going long or short.

Jim Rogers wrote a book on commodities called "Hot Commodities," a couple of years ago. Worth a read for those who are thinking of investing in commodities.

[teacup]

A Good Time To Get Into Oil?, invest now?

Well I go strictly with the technical, and it's saying.....

No it's not a good time to buy right now, it will dip much lower.....at least in a few month here the oil price will not go anywhere much, don't know for medium term - technical hasn't form the bottom yet

Just me

[007]

Its a good time if you have a crystal ball! Oil prices could go either way.

Upside potential = ?? Downside = 20 bucks max.? I'd be careful as a day-/short trader, but in the long run it has to go up..

[DegenFarang]

yes buy oil now, lots of it!

[DegenFarang]

no, get out, short sell oil, run for the hills!

[DegenFarang]

“Forecasts may tell you a great deal about the forecaster, they tell you nothing about the future” - Warren Buffett

“We ignore outlooks and forecasts… we’re lousy at it and we admit it… everyone else is lousy too, but most people won’t admit it.” - Marty Whitman

“Guesses - just so we’re clear - are merely expressions of prejudice.” - Michael Crichton

“Economists make predictions because they’re asked, not because they know.” - John K. Galbraith

[deejah]

teacup

you were right on the money about this

how does one determine the bottom?

(and the top too? did you get out or short at 150?)

did we not yet see a bottom when it dipped below 50 last week?

i see this as a great opportunity but obviously know too little about it, yet

i am thinking about index funds for safety and dividends and a bit of futures (the longest term available) for leverage

insights please

PS some great posts here

thanks

[britmaveric]

$25-$35 per barrel is probably what oil will settle at - OIL companies have made their dosh and now the shoe is on the other foot.

[flying]

$25-$35 per barrel is probably what oil will settle at - OIL companies have made their dosh and now the shoe is on the other foot.

Can we say that?

If they want more dont they just reduce output?

What alternative do we have other than paying their price?

God knows I wish I had a alternative

[britmaveric]

Problem is they have cut output and price is still dropping. They are stuck and this is a good thing.

[flying]

Problem is they have cut output and price is still dropping. They are stuck and this is a good thing.

Oh I am enjoying it !

Today I got just under 15 gallons for 39 bucks.

I was getting less than 10 for 40 bucks not long ago

[Soutpeel]

Problem is they have cut output and price is still dropping. They are stuck and this is a good thing.

And there is another ouput cut on the cards in December, OPEC, more specifically Saudi, want a price of around $75/barrel, which they consider is fair.

If the price isnt pushed up, marginal fields currently operating will not be able to produce at such a low price, oil companies will not invest in new CAPEX projects, and as a result prices will utlimately go a lot higher than recent $150/barrel in the long term.

Worldwide supply from "easy" sources is declining, the resource is getting harder to get at...ie oilsands, deep water drilling etc...therfore to sustain this development from the more difficult sources, the oil price needs to be at around $70-$80 barrel or just not worthwhile doing...

So in some repects its not a good thing...

[britmaveric]

Plenty of supply - don't buy into this peak oil theory - fking rubbish.

[Soutpeel]

Plenty of supply - don't buy into this peak oil theory - fking rubbish.

Nothing to do with peak oil theory....agreed, the reserves are there, but its going to cost a lot more money to get the reserves out the ground and into your tank...

[junkofdavid2]

If you think you can accurately and consistently predict the price of oil, you're kidding yourself.

BUT,

It's always good to have oil in your portfolio because it's directly correlated to cost of living around the world...

[Mosha]

The problem is not the oil production, but a lack of refining capacity. Rather strange when you consider Iran. An exporter of Crude but an importer of petrol.

However BBC News World has just said that OPEC will cut production at the next OPEC meeting. They are targetting a price of 75US$ per barrel.

[Soutpeel]

The problem is not the oil production, but a lack of refining capacity. Rather strange when you consider Iran. An exporter of Crude but an importer of petrol.

However BBC News World has just said that OPEC will cut production at the next OPEC meeting. They are targetting a price of 75US$ per barrel.

Just reported on the BBC, OPEC has announced a definite production cut in the next two, predicted to be "quite agressive" to get to target price of $75/barrel