Us Dollar Hit 34

[JimmyTheMook]

Do the folks out there with a crystal ball think it will drop back as quickly as it went up ?

Or are better days yet to come ?

[PCA]

Do the folks out there with a crystal ball think it will drop back as quickly as it went up ?

Or are better days yet to come ?

35+ to be expected pretty soon bearing in mind this is pure US$ strength. I tip on 36+ by years end and 37.50 +/- until mid of next year. Crystal ball view of course

[lannarebirth]

Do the folks out there with a crystal ball think it will drop back as quickly as it went up ?

Or are better days yet to come ?

35+ to be expected pretty soon bearing in mind this is pure US$ strength. I tip on 36+ by years end and 37.50 +/- until mid of next year. Crystal ball view of course

That's where I see the resistance too. High 37's. low 38's (using very crude charts).

Edited October 7, 2008 by lannarebirth

[Guest madcow]

Do the folks out there with a crystal ball think it will drop back as quickly as it went up ?

Or are better days yet to come ?

35+ to be expected pretty soon bearing in mind this is pure US$ strength. I tip on 36+ by years end and 37.50 +/- until mid of next year. Crystal ball view of course

That's where I see the resistance too. High 37's. low 38's (using very crude charts).

Its only currency traders driving the market , the US$ is worthless , wont be long before its back down where it belongs .

Australia is doing far better economically than the US as are a lot of other countries .

[PCA]

Do the folks out there with a crystal ball think it will drop back as quickly as it went up ?

Or are better days yet to come ?

35+ to be expected pretty soon bearing in mind this is pure US$ strength. I tip on 36+ by years end and 37.50 +/- until mid of next year. Crystal ball view of course

That's where I see the resistance too. High 37's. low 38's (using very crude charts).

Its only currency traders driving the market , the US$ is worthless , wont be long before its back down where it belongs .

Australia is doing far better economically than the US as are a lot of other countries .

well it is/was always currency traders driving currencies - new to you?

[mahtin]

Do the folks out there with a crystal ball think it will drop back as quickly as it went up ?

Or are better days yet to come ?

And the you row?

EUR Euro Zone 46.17 47.29

This is the worst for a long time.

Not so long ago it was up to 52.

Just as we are about to come to LOS

[PCA]

Do the folks out there with a crystal ball think it will drop back as quickly as it went up ?

Or are better days yet to come ?

And the you row?

EUR Euro Zone 46.17 47.29

This is the worst for a long time.

Not so long ago it was up to 52.

Just as we are about to come to LOS

you row no gud. 43 to 41 by years end I expect and to repeat myself this is all based on a dollar strength. And before someone else asks 55 +/-1 for the Pound and 22 +/-1 for AUD. The baht is a mickey mouse currency without it's own impulses.

[PeaceBlondie]

Whilst it seems crazy to think of the US dollar as a safe haven - reading the financial news - it is safer than the Thai baht - reading the headlines. The European financial markets are in a tailspin, so that even 'the full faith and credit of the USA government" sounds like a safe haven. Any good port in a storm.

[siamamerican]

Whilst it seems crazy to think of the US dollar as a safe haven - reading the financial news - it is safer than the Thai baht - reading the headlines. The European financial markets are in a tailspin, so that even 'the full faith and credit of the USA government" sounds like a safe haven. Any good port in a storm.

The US is somewhere near the bottom and the Europe's real pain has just begun. My bet is on the dollar strengthening. On second thought, I really don't have a clue. Currently, my non-401k and fixed income investment are roughly 50% US and 50% in Korea. The US currency is performing extremely well and the won is the worst performing major currency. More proof that I'm clueless.

[britmaveric]

Bullish on the $, expect 40-42 range perhaps by the end of the year - Japan is sinking and fun in Asia has yet to begin.

[LaoPo]

The US isn't near the bottom, by far (same in Europe). We have to wait (just a little) for the real economy to collapse and large Giants to fall down, like GM....better fasten the seat belts if there are any left.

The small light at the end of the tunnel is that the FED recognizes this and is now helping the collapsing regular economy, (read: companies in heavy debt) supplying hard needed money/credit but thus at the same time, creating false competition versus the companies which are, still, doing fine.

That's the contradiction in the (banking) system; failing banks/financials were nationalized, bailed out or taken over (with help from the government) whilst at the same time, the real AA/AAA banks are facing unfair competition. The bad ones were rewarded for their failures

The latter (FED's step to help companies) is needed since companies don't have access anymore to credits from the banks and banks don't have access to capital as well, not trusting/lending to each other anymore.

That's why the Governments all over the world are pumping hard needed cash into the system.

As for Asia, true....as for Thailand...better prepare for a nasty empty -tourist- country. The increasing Baht doesn't really help tourists, coming here and/or spending their western cash apart from the speeding economies...downhill, not allowing tourists to book holidays...

If I only look at the dramatic decreased car sales the past few months in most western European countries (and the US) what makes anybody think those people would spend money to going on holidays ?

What a world....

LaoPo

Edited October 8, 2008 by LaoPo

[siamamerican]

The US isn't near the bottom, by far (same in Europe). We have to wait (just a little) for the real economy to collapse and large Giants to fall down, like GM....better fasten the seat belts if there are any left.

LaoPo

I agree, the US is probably 10-15% from the bottom. I stated that the the US is near a bottom ( oops, not really). Yesterday on another thread, I wrote I would be hard pressed not to buy US stocks if the S&P went below 1000. I couldn't resist buying Bank of America today at $24. It got pummelled after hours and I'm second guessing myself now. Probably be fine in the long term if the Country Wide portfolio they inherited with no US government stop loss guarantees, doesn't blowup.

It's amazing how quick your fortunes can change in this market.

[LaoPo]

The US isn't near the bottom, by far (same in Europe). We have to wait (just a little) for the real economy to collapse and large Giants to fall down, like GM....better fasten the seat belts if there are any left.

LaoPo

I agree, the US is probably 10-15% from the bottom. I stated that the the US is near a bottom ( oops, not really). Yesterday on another thread, I wrote I would be hard pressed not to buy US stocks if the S&P went below 1000. I couldn't resist buying Bank of America today at $24. It got pummelled after hours and I'm second guessing myself now. Probably be fine in the long term if the Country Wide portfolio they inherited with no US government stop loss guarantees, doesn't blowup.

It's amazing how quick your fortunes can change in this market.

1. 10-15% from the bottom....I don't know; we'll see but I wouldn't put my money onto it as it could even go lower than 8,000 for the DOW and which 8,000 was my previous estimate. Asia was hit hard today again (Thailand's SET is -7,5% now....) and Europe is BLOOD RED at this very moment.

2. You're a brave man, buying BAC's at $24...it was down to $ 18,50's middle July and with a P/E of 13 (even with a F P/E of 9.50) it's way too expensive. I wouldn't touch ANY financial these days; but, that's me.

They suffered an all time high market value loss of $ 40 Billion or -26% Tuesday 7th, and that's unheard of. It also means that BAC could be battered again, today Wednesday 8th or days/weeks ahead.

BAC bought/took over Countrywide much too expensive and it remains to be seen if their rescue operation for the hundreds of thousands of home owners with an 'old' CFC mortgage will help the balance sheet of BAC...

LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

The US isn't near the bottom, by far (same in Europe). We have to wait (just a little) for the real economy to collapse and large Giants to fall down, like GM....better fasten the seat belts if there are any left.

LaoPo

I agree, the US is probably 10-15% from the bottom. I stated that the the US is near a bottom ( oops, not really). Yesterday on another thread, I wrote I would be hard pressed not to buy US stocks if the S&P went below 1000. I couldn't resist buying Bank of America today at $24. It got pummelled after hours and I'm second guessing myself now. Probably be fine in the long term if the Country Wide portfolio they inherited with no US government stop loss guarantees, doesn't blowup.

It's amazing how quick your fortunes can change in this market.

1. 10-15% from the bottom....I don't know; we'll see but I wouldn't put my money onto it as it could even go lower than 8,000 for the DOW and which 8,000 was my previous estimate. Asia was hit hard today again (Thailand's SET is -7,5% now....) and Europe is BLOOD RED at this very moment.

2. You're a brave man, buying BAC's at $24...it was down to $ 18,50's middle July and with a P/E of 13 (even with a F P/E of 9.50) it's way too expensive. I wouldn't touch ANY financial these days; but, that's me.

They suffered an all time high market value loss of $ 40 Billion or -26% Tuesday 7th, and that's unheard of. It also means that BAC could be battered again, today Wednesday 8th or days/weeks ahead.

BAC bought/took over Countrywide much too expensive and it remains to be seen if their rescue operation for the hundreds of thousands of home owners with an 'old' CFC mortgage will help the balance sheet of BAC...

LaoPo

Everyone only looks at the price. I encourage people to look at the float of some of these stocks. There has been SIGNIFICANT dilution taking place. Many many stocks have reverse splits in their future.

[bendix]

Bullish on the $, expect 40-42 range perhaps by the end of the year - Japan is sinking and fun in Asia has yet to begin.

You've been bullish on the $ ever since i started reading yuor posts, regardless of whether it was going up or down. I guess you work on the premise that a clock is always right twice a day ;-)

Frankly, all this currency nonsense is meaningless. There is a natural exchange rate range which occasionally gets distorted through situations like we're going through now. They go up, they come down, but they tend to gravitate, in normal times, to a regular range.

And for the baht that range is around 37 to the dollar, around 65-68 to the pound and around 30 to the Aussie.

They'll all come back in due course, plus or minus a few points.

[LaoPo]

The US isn't near the bottom, by far (same in Europe). We have to wait (just a little) for the real economy to collapse and large Giants to fall down, like GM....better fasten the seat belts if there are any left.

LaoPo

I agree, the US is probably 10-15% from the bottom. I stated that the the US is near a bottom ( oops, not really). Yesterday on another thread, I wrote I would be hard pressed not to buy US stocks if the S&P went below 1000. I couldn't resist buying Bank of America today at $24. It got pummelled after hours and I'm second guessing myself now. Probably be fine in the long term if the Country Wide portfolio they inherited with no US government stop loss guarantees, doesn't blowup.

It's amazing how quick your fortunes can change in this market.

1. 10-15% from the bottom....I don't know; we'll see but I wouldn't put my money onto it as it could even go lower than 8,000 for the DOW and which 8,000 was my previous estimate. Asia was hit hard today again (Thailand's SET is -7,5% now....) and Europe is BLOOD RED at this very moment.

2. You're a brave man, buying BAC's at $24...it was down to $ 18,50's middle July and with a P/E of 13 (even with a F P/E of 9.50) it's way too expensive. I wouldn't touch ANY financial these days; but, that's me.

They suffered an all time high market value loss of $ 40 Billion or -26% Tuesday 7th, and that's unheard of. It also means that BAC could be battered again, today Wednesday 8th or days/weeks ahead.

BAC bought/took over Countrywide much too expensive and it remains to be seen if their rescue operation for the hundreds of thousands of home owners with an 'old' CFC mortgage will help the balance sheet of BAC...

LaoPo

Everyone only looks at the price. I encourage people to look at the float of some of these stocks. There has been SIGNIFICANT dilution taking place. Many many stocks have reverse splits in their future.

So, what's your view on BAC, LR (and other financials for that matter) ?

I would like to add that Institutions, and individual players as well, are leaving company stocks, afraid as they are of the -normal- economy to drop further; the slide in commodities gives an even stronger signal to this phenomenon.

LaoPo

Edited October 8, 2008 by LaoPo

[lannarebirth]

Bullish on the $, expect 40-42 range perhaps by the end of the year - Japan is sinking and fun in Asia has yet to begin.

You've been bullish on the $ ever since i started reading yuor posts, regardless of whether it was going up or down. I guess you work on the premise that a clock is always right twice a day ;-)

Frankly, all this currency nonsense is meaningless. There is a natural exchange rate range which occasionally gets distorted through situations like we're going through now. They go up, they come down, but they tend to gravitate, in normal times, to a regular range.

And for the baht that range is around 37 to the dollar, around 65-68 to the pound and around 30 to the Aussie.

They'll all come back in due course, plus or minus a few points.

I can't agree with that Bendix. The GBP is in a very long term downtrend and I don't see any global circumstances changing that fact anytime soon. FWIW. so is the $USD, and in the not to distant future, we're going to see if that trend continues, stabilizes, or reverses.

[lannarebirth]

The US isn't near the bottom, by far (same in Europe). We have to wait (just a little) for the real economy to collapse and large Giants to fall down, like GM....better fasten the seat belts if there are any left.

LaoPo

I agree, the US is probably 10-15% from the bottom. I stated that the the US is near a bottom ( oops, not really). Yesterday on another thread, I wrote I would be hard pressed not to buy US stocks if the S&P went below 1000. I couldn't resist buying Bank of America today at $24. It got pummelled after hours and I'm second guessing myself now. Probably be fine in the long term if the Country Wide portfolio they inherited with no US government stop loss guarantees, doesn't blowup.

It's amazing how quick your fortunes can change in this market.

1. 10-15% from the bottom....I don't know; we'll see but I wouldn't put my money onto it as it could even go lower than 8,000 for the DOW and which 8,000 was my previous estimate. Asia was hit hard today again (Thailand's SET is -7,5% now....) and Europe is BLOOD RED at this very moment.

2. You're a brave man, buying BAC's at $24...it was down to $ 18,50's middle July and with a P/E of 13 (even with a F P/E of 9.50) it's way too expensive. I wouldn't touch ANY financial these days; but, that's me.

They suffered an all time high market value loss of $ 40 Billion or -26% Tuesday 7th, and that's unheard of. It also means that BAC could be battered again, today Wednesday 8th or days/weeks ahead.

BAC bought/took over Countrywide much too expensive and it remains to be seen if their rescue operation for the hundreds of thousands of home owners with an 'old' CFC mortgage will help the balance sheet of BAC...

LaoPo

Everyone only looks at the price. I encourage people to look at the float of some of these stocks. There has been SIGNIFICANT dilution taking place. Many many stocks have reverse splits in their future.

So, what's your view on BAC, LR (and other financials for that matter) ?

I would like to add that Institutions, and individual players as well, are leaving company stocks, afraid as they are of the -normal- economy to drop further; the slide in commodities gives an even stronger signal to this phenomenon.

LaoPo

My view on BAC is the same as it was 2 days ago when I pleaded with my brother not to buy it. Heavily diluted and in a downtrend. Long term. in some form I imagine these stocks survive (less sure about C, with all that CC debt((they going to lay that off on the govt ?)))

[Naam]

i have eaten roasted duck for supper today. duck prepared burmese style with basil and tiny thai unskinned roasted garlic cloves, served with german style red cabbage and spanish pepeliños con (mucho) ajo. my wife who is 95% vegetarian locked her den from the inside and shouted her usual "what barbarian you are!" but who the eff cares what pseudo-vegetarians think and in what ridiculous way the act?

back to the topic. i had no chance to evaluate and anal-lise the duck entrails. it is also a known fact that duck entrails do not render the same exact results that chicken entrails do when performing voodoo extrapolations and forecasts. that means i have nothing really to say and post only to waste some TV bandwidth.

a full belly causes typos and spelling mistakes

Edited October 8, 2008 by Naam

[PeaceBlondie]

Naam, I do not think it a typo to refer to anal-lising entrails. Happy trails to you, too.

[siamamerican]

1. 10-15% from the bottom....I don't know; we'll see but I wouldn't put my money onto it as it could even go lower than 8,000 for the DOW and which 8,000 was my previous estimate. Asia was hit hard today again (Thailand's SET is -7,5% now....) and Europe is BLOOD RED at this very moment.

2. You're a brave man, buying BAC's at $24...it was down to $ 18,50's middle July and with a P/E of 13 (even with a F P/E of 9.50) it's way too expensive. I wouldn't touch ANY financial these days; but, that's me.

They suffered an all time high market value loss of $ 40 Billion or -26% Tuesday 7th, and that's unheard of. It also means that BAC could be battered again, today Wednesday 8th or days/weeks ahead.

BAC bought/took over Countrywide much too expensive and it remains to be seen if their rescue operation for the hundreds of thousands of home owners with an 'old' CFC mortgage will help the balance sheet of BAC...

LaoPo

1. Who knows?

2. I don't know about being brave - at the moment bravery isn't the adjective that comes to mind.

I would feel much more confident if BofA received a sweetheart deal on the CW purchase, much like what the government is handing out now. I still think the BofA investment will have good returns a year from now. Taking into account, the deep in the money call I sold a couple weeks ago, I'm only down roughly 5% on BofA. Now my hedge against a drop in price has completely evaporated and I expect to feel some more pain the next day or two.

[siamamerican]

Bullish on the $, expect 40-42 range perhaps by the end of the year - Japan is sinking and fun in Asia has yet to begin.

You've been bullish on the $ ever since i started reading yuor posts, regardless of whether it was going up or down. I guess you work on the premise that a clock is always right twice a day ;-)

Frankly, all this currency nonsense is meaningless. There is a natural exchange rate range which occasionally gets distorted through situations like we're going through now. They go up, they come down, but they tend to gravitate, in normal times, to a regular range.

And for the baht that range is around 37 to the dollar, around 65-68 to the pound and around 30 to the Aussie.

They'll all come back in due course, plus or minus a few points.

37 would be great! I don't think any of us know the bahts range, considering Thailand has only floated it currency for 10 years. My guess though would be aound 37 also. I use 29 for my retirement budget calcs.

[PCA]

Do the folks out there with a crystal ball think it will drop back as quickly as it went up ?

Or are better days yet to come ?

And the you row?

EUR Euro Zone 46.17 47.29

This is the worst for a long time.

Not so long ago it was up to 52.

Just as we are about to come to LOS

you row no gud. 43 to 41 by years end I expect and to repeat myself this is all based on a dollar strength. And before someone else asks 55 +/-1 for the Pound and 22 +/-1 for AUD. The baht is a mickey mouse currency without it's own impulses.

gotta revise the AUD/THB play to 20 +/-1 sorry Aussies.

[lannarebirth]

Pretty self explanatory:

GBP:

AUD:

[britmaveric]

As for the DOW - dare say be back over 10K by end of 2009.