Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[cloudhopper]

A good friend of mine who has been in gold for years says we are going to remain in $1400-$1600 range all year

Wow wrong already.

but I think it will be much higher if things do not collapse.

What things?

[Naam]

Why $1400 ?

why not?

joke aside. 1400 is an arbitrary figure made up by me and also depending on EURUSD exchange rate between 1.30 and 1.35. any breakout of that range (up or down) and i will adjust my purchase price. also, i am not buying paper gold per se but one specific chinese goldmine which i traded several times in/out during the last 9 months.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=1818:HK

[Naam]

Gold stocks have underperformed gold by a large margin and have sold off a lot faster recently than gold anticipating lower prices

exceptions prove the rule!

[Naam]

A good friend of mine who has been in gold for years says we are going to remain in $1400-$1600 range all year

Wow wrong already.

but I think it will be much higher if things do not collapse.

What things?

perhaps he means our "thingies" (the ones which get a boost by Messrs Pfizer Inc) ?

[churchill]

' 1400 is an arbitrary figure made up by me and also depending on EURUSD exchange rate between 1.30 and 1.35. any breakout of that range (up or down) and i will adjust my purchase price.'

How do you see currencies in relation to gold price ? I started repurchsing gold last year when the $ started to go up along with gold /and now perhaps it is going to start relecting inflation and real interest rates , which worldwide seem to be negative .

China/Russia/Japan have come out to support the Euro and it seems there is a mounting anti $ stance but Ireland starting to print their own money will not help the Euro see ..

ECB Allows Irish Central Bank to Counterfeit 51 Billion Euros

'Ireland central bank counterfeited 51 billion Euros out of thin air. The amount is not backed by government bonds. Nor was it a loan from the ECB or anyone else. The money is counterfeit in every sense of the word.'

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/ecb-allows-irish-central-bank-to.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+%28Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis%29

So gold seems to be a safe haven in the muddle of a failing Euro and mounting loss of confidence in the $ ?

[churchill]

JPM will be able to carry on manipulating the silver market until something goes boink...

c'mon 12... when there's no gold/silver cheerlading we concentrate on conspiracy theories in this thread?

Market manipulations are not a conspiracy theory Naam. They are a well proven fiscal management tool. When the BOT steps in to buy or sell THB to maintain the price they want, we don't call that a "conspiracy" do we? The word "conspiracy" is nothing more than a snarl word used by those who don't want to acknowledge or debate the reality of the manipulation, either because the implications conflict with their dogma and it frightens them or else because they simply don't want to expend the effort.

Is JPM manipulating the silver market? The Hunt brothers did it 30 years ago, so it is not without precedent. It is a small market that lends itself to being abused by those with deep pockets. It is a plausible theory. More evidence would be required before we can state definitively one way or the other. Sadly, there is no authority that would willingly implicate JPM in a scandal. They are much too powerful in the financial world today. If they are engaging in manipulation, then they can act with impunity and there is nothing any of us can do about it.

The failure of derivatives regulation of precious metals

http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.01.18%20Comex.htm

[ThaisGood]

A good friend of mine who has been in gold for years says we are going to remain in $1400-$1600 range all year

Wow wrong already.

but I think it will be much higher if things do not collapse.

What things?

Default on debt by govts in US and elsewhere and/or sudden hyperinflation as in Argentina for example (ferfal is a good blog to read). Very real possibility.

Hold onto your hats and buy physical gold & silver.

[Naam]

ECB Allows Irish Central Bank to Counterfeit 51 Billion Euros

'Ireland central bank counterfeited 51 billion Euros out of thin air. The amount is not backed by government bonds. Nor was it a loan from the ECB or anyone else. The money is counterfeit in every sense of the word.'

indeed a serious precedence Churchill. but the latest news i received from the Gamma Quadrant yesterday is even more serious. an old Klingon classmate of mine, who trades Quintlithium and Unobtainium (both 7.999999 purity and therefore suitable fuel for transwarp drives) with Species 4827 against payment of gold-pressed Latinum, has reliable information that German Chancellor Merkel is a genetically altered male Talaxian... but i promised to keep all this information confidential.

all what i am allowed to say is that the European Union will drop the €UR by the end of this year and adopt the British Pound as legal tender. please... don't tell anybody!

[flying]

Default on debt by govts in US

The default is already well underway & has been for some time now.

The US is never to say sorry we cannot pay. They just print or digitize more & more paper

backed by bonds that they then print more & more paper to buy with themselves since there are now too many IOU's for even China & Japan to soak up.

Edited January 19, 2011 by flying

[flying]

Is JPM manipulating the silver market? The Hunt brothers did it 30 years ago...

the Hunt brothers as well as JPM conduct(ed) legal business transactions which, in my [not so] humble view, do not warrant the derogatory expression "manipulation". is perhaps the reason for my view that i am a non-native english speaker?

I would agree.....While the Hunt brothers may have created a monopoly by cornering the market it was no conspiracy to buy it all up.

Yet what JP Morgan is doing with its naked shorts of silver in quantities that does not exist could qualify for conspiracy & outright fraud, criminal activity.

me too, because @ 1,400 i will buy again. until then i'll twiddle my thumbs and watch

Me thinks you will not need to twiddle the thumbs for long & also the truth is Real Gold ( Physical ) has not been below $1400 much recently

Even now a plain old Credit Suisse 1 oz bar is $1423 USD

A no name no assay card bar will run $1405

Edited January 19, 2011 by flying

[churchill]

ECB Allows Irish Central Bank to Counterfeit 51 Billion Euros

'Ireland central bank counterfeited 51 billion Euros out of thin air. The amount is not backed by government bonds. Nor was it a loan from the ECB or anyone else. The money is counterfeit in every sense of the word.'

indeed a serious precedence Churchill. but the latest news i received from the Gamma Quadrant yesterday is even more serious. an old Klingon classmate of mine, who trades Quintlithium and Unobtainium (both 7.999999 purity and therefore suitable fuel for transwarp drives) with Species 4827 against payment of gold-pressed Latinum, has reliable information that German Chancellor Merkel is a genetically altered male Talaxian... but i promised to keep all this information confidential.

all what i am allowed to say is that the European Union will drop the €UR by the end of this year and adopt the British Pound as legal tender. please... don't tell anybody!

Yes , everyone apart from Germany - Why not / The new currency for Europe *** GBP *** - Many in the south would be much happier - But what to do about the French ?

Unemployment in the US seems to be going UP ( see below ) - So QE also going UP / Even though the Euro is a disaster it is going UP against $ / US the only country with low inflation ( but expectations up 60% ?)! and so low interest rates - Euro rates due to rise ( so Trichet tells us ) GBP rates due to rise - Not /

So Traders sell USD ? where there is going to be more printing and low rates and continued spending .....to buy other currencies where at least there is a perception of higher rates and less printing /

So USD down / stocks and everything else UP inc PM's /

Whilst the Chinese leader is in the US - Very embarassing for Obama if the USD were to have a mini crash ?

Just fantasies !!

Point of No Return; Fiscal Shell Games; Texas to Cut 8,000 Jobs; Deep Layoffs in NJ; Mayor Recall Vote in Miami; Oregon Workers' Comp Bankruptcy

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/01/point-of-no-return-fiscal-shell-games.html

[churchill]

very serious games /

China’s bond purchasing games

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/01/19/463001/chinas-bond-purchasing-games/

[Naam]

Me thinks you will not need to twiddle the thumbs for long & also the truth is Real Gold ( Physical ) has not been below $1400 much recently.

my favourite goldmine which i trade once in a while moves with the paper gold price and does not care about anything else.

[churchill]

I was at my bank today; there was a short line.

There was just one lady in front of me, an Asian lady who was trying to

exchange yen for dollars. It was obvious she was a little irritated . . .

She asked the teller, “Why it change? Yesterday, I get two hunat dolla fo

yen.

Today I only get hunat eighty? Why it change?”

The teller shrugged his shoulders and said, “Fluctuations.”

The Asian lady says, “Fluc you white people, too.”

[Abrak]

I was at my bank today; there was a short line.

There was just one lady in front of me, an Asian lady who was trying to

exchange yen for dollars. It was obvious she was a little irritated . . .

She asked the teller, “Why it change? Yesterday, I get two hunat dolla fo

yen.

Today I only get hunat eighty? Why it change?”

The teller shrugged his shoulders and said, “Fluctuations.”

The Asian lady says, “Fluc you white people, too.”

Now that is one of the most coherent things that has been written about gold. It will obviously take us time to see whether it is statistically significant or not but at least it appears to make common sense. At the very least it explains the general direction of gold. At least things are clear now.

[flying]

Today I only get hunat eighty? Why it change?”

The teller shrugged his shoulders and said, “Fluctuations.”

The Asian lady says, “Fluc you white people, too.”

:lol:

Thanks for the morning laughs

Fluctuations....

[churchill]

I think from here either a big spike down or a big spike up /

So sell now or buy before it's too late - DYOR !

'First Robert Zoellick suggests a return to the Gold standard. Now ALAN GREENSPAN CALLS FOR A RETURN TO THE GOLD STANDARD'

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=yRJs5yL62BA

Edited January 20, 2011 by churchill

[flying]

I think from here either a big spike down or a big spike up

So sell now or buy before it's too late - DYOR !

IMO only...of course

Looking back the past 3 years... at January's you will see 5-7% drop & then reversal.

That aside to those that bought physical in the past 3 years.... Why did you do so?

Has the premise for buying physical changed?

DYODD...yes but.. short term price directions is not the end all of that due diligence

Edited January 20, 2011 by flying

[churchill]

I think from here either a big spike down or a big spike up

So sell now or buy before it's too late - DYOR !

IMO only...of course

Looking back the past 3 years... at January's you will see 5-7% drop & then reversal.

That aside to those that bought physical in the past 3 years.... Why did you do so?

Has the premise for buying physical changed?

DYODD...yes but.. short term price directions is not the end all of that due diligence

Agreed - As I said a spike down / but trend still up - Nothing has changed

and I think we will get a very big spike up when the chartists & all least expect it /

[Naam]

I think from here either a big spike down or a big spike up.

or a big spike sideways

[Naam]

EURUSD >1.35, gold 1348 = no likee, no takee but waitee

[Abrak]

Agreed - As I said a spike down / but trend still up - Nothing has changed

and I think we will get a very big spike up when the chartists & all least expect it /

Boom! Boom!

[Naam]

So gold seems to be a safe haven in the muddle of a failing Euro and mounting loss of confidence in the $ ?

the fact that Dyler Zero Turd and some Omegaville bloggers voice negative comments and some clowns publish rubbish about Ireland printing EURos

quote: "which are not backed by government bonds"

does not impress the €UR which is appreciating since days vs. Gold, other precious metals and virtually all currencies (including the safe haven Swiss Franc).

and now i am waiting for some conspiracy [blogspot]stories that the Chinese have decided to buy EURo-Land and after accomplishment Berlin and Paris will be renamed New Beijing and New Shanghai.

[churchill]

The chinese are playing the long game , will the west wake up before it's too late ?

Any dips in price will be snapped up IMO /

'This is an economic war with a passive aggressor: China will let us sink under our own democratic stupidities. She does not need to do much more than protect her own position.'

'Gold is money to the Asian mind, and paper money is ephemeral. Understand this, and you understand China’s view of the dollar and even of her own paper currency. Neither she nor her citizens are fooled into regarding the yuan as a store of value; it is a medium for exchange and just an economic tool for China’s dealings with the West. She does not concern herself unduly with inflation measured in yuan, unless it threatens to destabilise Chinese society; and as we know, China’s masses are now being offered an alternative, they are encouraged to accumulate gold and silver, real money.'

... http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.01.21%20Chinese%20puzzles.htm

and see

Chinese Silver Demand Surges Incredible Four Fold in Just One Year

http://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_blog

[churchill]

So gold seems to be a safe haven in the muddle of a failing Euro and mounting loss of confidence in the $ ?

the fact that Dyler Zero Turd and some Omegaville bloggers voice negative comments and some clowns publish rubbish about Ireland printing EURos

quote: "which are not backed by government bonds"

does not impress the €UR which is appreciating since days vs. Gold, other precious metals and virtually all currencies (including the safe haven Swiss Franc).

and now i am waiting for some conspiracy [blogspot]stories that the Chinese have decided to buy EURo-Land and after accomplishment Berlin and Paris will be renamed New Beijing and New Shanghai.

I said 'failing' Euro - You cannot think that it is succeeding ? Loss in confidence in the USD ? perhaps next week all the sentiment will change and the $ will be up Euro down , most commentators change on a dime - as if they knew what was coming ! It is easy to look backwards and have clever comments / gold perhaps down short term but long term I think will be up / and unless one is a trader better to take the medium to long term view rather than short term /

and I think the next leg up will be very sharp catching many out /

Edited January 22, 2011 by churchill

[churchill]

and not forgetting India

Gold, Silver investments surge in India

'India is the largest consumer and importer of silver in the world. According to commodities brokerage Karvy Comtrade silver imports by India soared more than six times to $1.7 billion in the first-half of 2010.'

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-Silver-investments-surge-in-India-35704-3-1.html

and Russia

trading oil for gold /

'Russia’s central bank will raise the share of gold in its international reserves, the world’s third largest, from about 8 percent, First Deputy Central Bank Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said.'

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-20/russia-to-raise-gold-share-in-reserves-eyes-adding-yuan-ulyukayev-says.html

[Naam]

I said 'failing' Euro - You cannot think that it is succeeding ?

Churchill,

when it concerns currencies i leave the thinking to the horses as they have bigger brains than i do. what i did was stating facts about the "failing" EUR. nothing added, nothing omitted.

additional facts are:

in 1999 at the EURo's inception

-72 GB-Pence bought one €UR, now it takes 85 GBPence.

-118 US-Cents bought one €UR, now it takes 136 US-Cents

therefore i fail to see a failing €URo and you might wish to explain the "€ failure" to laymen like me

[Naam]

Russia, which aims to diversify its reserves, started adding the Canadian dollar and plans to invest in the Australian dollar. The central bank has almost doubled the share of gold in the past three or four years, according to Ulyukayev. The stockpile comprises 47 percent U.S. dollars, 41 percent euros, 9 percent British pounds, 2 percent Japanese yen and 1 percent Canadian dollars, according to the central bank.

47+41+9+2+1 = 100% - did the russian Central Bank double its gold share from 0% to twice 0% ?

[churchill]

'therefore i fail to see a failing €URo and you might wish to explain the "€ failure" to laymen like me '

Try the Daily Telegraph - your favourite !

'47+41+9+2+1 = 100% - did the russian Central Bank double its gold share from 0% to twice 0% ? '

and If this chap can't add then we're all in the sh**t

'Russia’s central bank will raise the share of gold in its international reserves, the world’s third largest, from about 8 percent, First Deputy Central Bank Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said.'

[Naam]

two days no gold cheerleading news? what is happening?