Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[flying]

Silver in Backwardation and the Emperor, Once Again, Nearly Naked

Growing panic in Paperville. The central banks have no silver, and the Comex is being depleted. Interesting that the SLV ETF inventories are experiencing large outflows. The patriotic miners are being called upon to hedge their deep storage inventories, that is, unrefined metal in the ground, to provide more paper.

This manipulation of silver and gold could be a John Law class debacle when it is exposed and collapses, depending on how high the leverage in paper has gone. And of course how deeply down the rabbit hole the people are willing to go in the discovery of real value and the truth. Given what has recently transpired, I suspect not too far.

The mailbag this morning has the usual dose of overly kind words for which I am always grateful, useful information and notification of alas, typos. But also of hysteria, from those who fear the government is going to come and take their money, or who think that people like me are going to spoil their good thing by warning people about it. Thank God for spam settings.

I don't think most people realize how little their opinion matters anymore. At some point the truth is simply what it is, without regard to what we think about it, or whether we like it. Their good thing is over. It's in the end game now, and we are all in God's hands.

John Law (baptised 21 April 1671 – died 21 March 1729) was a Scottish economist who believed that money was only a means of exchange that did not constitute wealth in itself and that national wealth depended on trade. He was appointed Controller General of Finances of France under King Louis XV.

In 1716 Law established the Banque Générale in France, a private bank, but three-quarters of the capital consisted of government bills and government-accepted notes, effectively making it the first central bank of the nation. He was responsible for the Mississippi Bubble and a chaotic economic collapse in France."

I believe that "modern monetary theory" owes much to John Law, and Money and Trade Considered, with a Proposal for Supplying the Nation with Money (1st ed., 1705; 2nd ed., 1720).

“An abundance of money which would lower the interest rate to two per cent would, in reducing the financing costs of the debts and public offices etc., relieve the King.”

John Law

Here is a brief discussion of John Law and the parallels for today's crisis from Buttonwood at The Economist.

I think there is a bit of disinformation going about. The implication from some corners is that those who sell silver as a hedge borrow it from existing physical supply, drawing down physical stocks. What they do not realize, or admit, is that borrowed silver is not held as allocated and discrete collateral in any system with which I am familiar, but is at best resold again into the bullion markets, if it ever experiences any movement at all beyond some multiple ledger entries.

The dirty little story of the metal markets is leverage and fractional ownership, not always disclosed, which some say is as high as 100 to 1. And this is in the so called physical bullion markets like the LBMA. I could not even imagine how badly mispriced the counter party risk is in the hedges. But when the music stops and the tide goes out, we may see who is naked, and there will most likely be a surfeit of some rather ugly bums.

[flying]

US silver term structure inverts as supply tightens

Edited February 14, 2011 by flying

[crusader79]

The South American experience:

The Great Hernán P.’s example is exactly what any sensible investor should do, in an inflationary or hyperinflationary period: Preserve capital at all costs, via commodities, while keeping a sharp eye out for real estate opportunities. As inflation rises and real estate prices collapse, be prepared to trade the commodities you own for real estate assets selling at depressed prices.

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/02/inflation-hyperinflation-and-real.html

[flying]

Gold Silver ratio looking pretty low at 44.57/1

[Naam]

As inflation rises and real estate prices collapse...

historically the opposite happened. it all depends what country is referred to.

Edited February 15, 2011 by Naam

[crusader79]

As inflation rises and real estate prices collapse...

historically the opposite happened. it all depends what country is referred to.

Not during hyperinflation and a currency collapse. It's counterintuitive. That's the point of the essay. Did you read only the excerpt?

Edited February 15, 2011 by crusader79

[Naam]

As inflation rises and real estate prices collapse...

historically the opposite happened. it all depends what country is referred to.

Not during hyperinflation and a currency collapse. It's counterintuitive. That's the point of the essay. Did you read only the excerpt?

i only took a brief look at it and realised the generalisation and in part wrong information. i know from my country, which experienced inflation Zimbabwe style, that immobile property was (among others) a much sought after "commodity" to beat hyperinflation.

also, i find sensational advice ridiculous such as

quote: "be prepared to trade the commodities you own for real estate assets..."

envisaging commodity hoarders running around with their surplus bags of potatoes or rice and a couple of smoked hams trying to trade in real estate.

[gregb]

As inflation rises and real estate prices collapse...

historically the opposite happened. it all depends what country is referred to.

Not during hyperinflation and a currency collapse. It's counterintuitive. That's the point of the essay. Did you read only the excerpt?

While I don't doubt there is some effect from the mechanisms he talks about, the much larger concern is that during the height of a hyperinflationary crisis, people will sell their real estate holdings cheaply only for hard currency that is not affected by the crisis itself. Thus, the Argentinian deal he mentions at the end. That was sold for $90,000 USD cash, but if you equate it in local pesos, I doubt the price had dropped much at all. It had probably even risen slightly.

Thus, if you look at the price of US real estate in US dollars, I will bet that it remains essentially flat in nominal terms. But the price in ounces of gold is likely to drop precipitously. Of course, you can also view this situation as gold simply rising against the value of a hyperinflating fiat currency. I believe him though that necessary commodities such as food and fuel will rise faster than overpriced luxuries such as McMansions.

The fact that there are so many interpretations of the same data is what is going to make the coming crisis so challenging. But for sure, if you want to take advantage of the situation, you will need a hard currency not affected by the crisis in order to get in the game. That likely means precious metals in physical form.

[clinique]

Just look back 6 years and you will see mid $300's or look back 7 years and you will see sub $300. Thats why I told you to not buy gold immediately when it drops below $400/ounce, rather wait until it hits $365 or so because if it drops lower then it will be easier to average down!

Ok thanks Vic

Now that I look back to a 95 till present chart I see a different story.

hmmm

Man since 2001 Gold has had a nice little run hasn't it?

Fear is very good to gold isnt it?

I have to wonder why a bit though. In these days of cooked books & faulty govt.

I would have thought gold a nice solid investment. At least it is tangible & real in that sense. But again value is what everyone agrees on I guess.

that is correct. but a good part of that run is caused by the depreciation of the US-Dollar. and that goes for any commodity denominated and traded in USD.

Exactly and logical too that Gold is heading down, now the Greenback is up.

But...one of the most remarkable Congressmen in the US, 14th district of Texas, Congressman Dr. Ron Paul ® says he believes the FED is not only manipulating the US $ but Gold as well. He claims that it's easier to get hold of secrets from the CIA rather then information from the FED:

http://nl.youtube.co...h?v=USSAEQl0XMM

So, now we know it all; in other words.....if Gold would hit $ 2,000 the dollar would have had it's days of glory.....

LaoPo

Ah!!!! so then are we to beleive that much of the losses by Wall street in Subprime mortgages was made up by what they made on Gold ! Absolutely !! Bcoz the guys who make the decisions know better than we do that when the US$ goes down Gold goes up........Just another (huge !) manipulation..

[Naam]

I believe him though that necessary commodities such as food and fuel will rise faster than overpriced luxuries such as McMansions.

The fact that there are so many interpretations of the same data is what is going to make the coming crisis so challenging. But for sure, if you want to take advantage of the situation, you will need a hard currency not affected by the crisis in order to get in the game. That likely means precious metals in physical form.

a logical and valid conclusion. however, i wonder about the practical implementation. will the chap who has a family to feed sell his precious food stuff for gold or silver and then will he, his wife and his children lick the precious metal pieces when they are hungry? my grandparents told me interesting stories at what low values gold and other precious items were trading when buying essential food stuff on the black market or in rural areas after the war in 1945/46.

[jazzbo]

what is going to make the coming crisis so challenging... Be nice, Kuhn Naam. It is a thankless job to be such a harbinger to those who cannot see the true light.

[clinique]

I believe him though that necessary commodities such as food and fuel will rise faster than overpriced luxuries such as McMansions.

The fact that there are so many interpretations of the same data is what is going to make the coming crisis so challenging. But for sure, if you want to take advantage of the situation, you will need a hard currency not affected by the crisis in order to get in the game. That likely means precious metals in physical form.

a logical and valid conclusion. however, i wonder about the practical implementation. will the chap who has a family to feed sell his precious food stuff for gold or silver and then will he, his wife and his children lick the precious metal pieces when they are hungry? my grandparents told me interesting stories at what low values gold and other precious items were trading when buying essential food stuff on the black market or in rural areas after the war in 1945/46.

Understood, but not sure that the 'actual' price of gold was effected. The fact that the "haves" (with the food and other essentials) took advantage of the holders of gold and other precious items and traded them for next to nothing was "usery" and not actually relatedto the then gold price/standard.

For example - It could happen today, if you are in say Afghanistan and in a poor area with no food but have an ounce of gold and are in desperation to get food and water for your children and someone comes along with a supply of food and water they are not likely to give you any where near the face value of the gold.

[crusader79]

I wonder about the practical implementation too, which is why I actually read essays describing how investors behaved during earlier hyperinflationary currency crises.

The experience of post-WWII Germany may not be the one to study, since the country experienced a near total breakdown of infrastructure and food supply in addition to currency collapse. Clinique's Afghanistan example, where food is physically scarce, may be related. The Weimar experience was perhaps a more 'typical' hyperinflationary currency crisis.

The fact that the US$ is the reserve currency would also give any crisis unique and difficult to predict aspects.

[Naam]

Understood, but not sure that the 'actual' price of gold was effected. The fact that the "haves" (with the food and other essentials) took advantage of the holders of gold and other precious items and traded them for next to nothing was "usery" and not actually relatedto the then gold price/standard.

academic arguments, logical conclusions and explanations won't be valid during a real crisis. assuming i have food and a roof over my head i will not accept gold for both as a trade-in because i can neither eat gold nor can i live in a gold bar. in case i have two homes and food in abundance i might sell some.

Edited February 15, 2011 by Naam

[crusader79]

Understood, but not sure that the 'actual' price of gold was effected. The fact that the "haves" (with the food and other essentials) took advantage of the holders of gold and other precious items and traded them for next to nothing was "usery" and not actually relatedto the then gold price/standard.

academic arguments, logical conclusions and explanations won't be valid during a real crisis. assuming i have food and a roof over my head i will not accept gold for both as a trade-in because i can neither eat gold nor can i live in a gold bar. in case i have two homes and food in abundance i might sell some.

If you had a mortgage and interest rates skyrocketed, collapsing property values, you might be forced to sell. That's discussed in the essay you haven't read since you already know everything.

[Naam]

I wonder about the practical implementation too, which is why I actually read essays describing how investors behaved during earlier hyperinflationary currency crises.

many years ago i stopped believing in the fairy tale "history repeats itself" and many years ago i stopped believing in books or essays written by "gurus" or plain writers describing how wealthy people acquired their wealth. instead i developed my own theories and practiced them (admittingly by trial and error) and... i am quite happy and content with the result.

presently there's no such thing like hyper-inflation lurking around the corner. i can't prepare for something that might or might not happen in the distant future because any plans i make today are based on today's prevailing facts and economic environment. both can completely change within a rather short period and my future plans might therefore lose their basis. in my [not so] humble opinion those who think they can predict how a certain future crisis will affect them and prepare exclusively for it will miserably fail because they are losing precious time to increase and divert their finances which would enable them to master a future crisis according to THEN prevailing circumstances.

last not least... i am a Farang living in Thailand. it is not only a waste of time but utmost ridiculous for a Farang in Thailand adopting ideas like "buy real estate with commodities". but then... to each his own.

[Naam]

If you had a mortgage and interest rates skyrocketed, collapsing property values, you might be forced to sell. That's discussed in the essay you haven't read since you already know everything.

i don't have a mortgage. the last mortgage i had was 35 years ago when i was still a poor boy. after that whatever property i/we owned and still own i/we paid for. not with commodities but with hard earned 'fiat' money. that's why i don't waste my time reading essays concerning mortgaged real estate, skyrocketing interest rates and buying real estate with commodities.

[clinique]

Understood, but not sure that the 'actual' price of gold was effected. The fact that the "haves" (with the food and other essentials) took advantage of the holders of gold and other precious items and traded them for next to nothing was "usery" and not actually relatedto the then gold price/standard.

academic arguments, logical conclusions and explanations won't be valid during a real crisis. assuming i have food and a roof over my head i will not accept gold for both as a trade-in because i can neither eat gold nor can i live in a gold bar. in case i have two homes and food in abundance i might sell some.

agreed, but if you have a large supply of food and trade 'some' for gold, then once the crisis recedes you will have both a roof over your ehad and food to eat, plus goldacquired at a very cheap price. Not academic - reality, ascrisis don tlast forever.

[Naam]

agreed, but if you have a large supply of food and trade 'some' for gold, then once the crisis recedes you will have both a roof over your ehad and food to eat

how do i store a large physical supply of food? breeding pigs? buying a grain silo and a big cold storage? in a crisis nobody will buy an option on pork bellies or futures on bushels of rice or wheat.

for today i had my fill of science fiction discussions dinner will be served any minute from now and i still need my evening pool dip.

[crusader79]

If you had a mortgage and interest rates skyrocketed, collapsing property values, you might be forced to sell. That's discussed in the essay you haven't read since you already know everything.

i don't have a mortgage. the last mortgage i had was 35 years ago when i was still a poor boy. after that whatever property i/we owned and still own i/we paid for. not with commodities but with hard earned 'fiat' money. that's why i don't waste my time reading essays concerning mortgaged real estate, skyrocketing interest rates and buying real estate with commodities.

If you don't waste your time reading them then don't waste our time commenting on them.

[crusader79]

I wonder about the practical implementation too, which is why I actually read essays describing how investors behaved during earlier hyperinflationary currency crises.

many years ago i stopped believing in the fairy tale "history repeats itself" and many years ago i stopped believing in books or essays written by "gurus" or plain writers describing how wealthy people acquired their wealth. instead i developed my own theories and practiced them (admittingly by trial and error) and... i am quite happy and content with the result.

presently there's no such thing like hyper-inflation lurking around the corner. i can't prepare for something that might or might not happen in the distant future because any plans i make today are based on today's prevailing facts and economic environment. both can completely change within a rather short period and my future plans might therefore lose their basis. in my [not so] humble opinion those who think they can predict how a certain future crisis will affect them and prepare exclusively for it will miserably fail because they are losing precious time to increase and divert their finances which would enable them to master a future crisis according to THEN prevailing circumstances.

last not least... i am a Farang living in Thailand. it is not only a waste of time but utmost ridiculous for a Farang in Thailand adopting ideas like "buy real estate with commodities". but then... to each his own.

many years ago i stopped believing in the fairy tale "history repeats itself"

That may explain why you failed to anticipate this secular bull market in gold and were so late to participate in it. History doesn't exactly repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

and many years ago i stopped believing in books or essays written by "gurus" or plain writers describing how wealthy people acquired their wealth. instead i developed my own theories and practiced them (admittingly by trial and error) and... i am quite happy and content with the result.

I developed the same deep skepticism over 30 years of investment, but it's the height of arrogance to think there aren't a handful of observers who are wiser and more knowledgeable than you and are worth listening to. The trick is identifying them. Some even anticipated the gold bull, go figure.

presently there's no such thing like hyper-inflation lurking around the corner.

Ha. Categorical 'predictions' are OK when you make them, I guess

i can't prepare for something that might or might not happen in the distant future because any plans i make today are based on today's prevailing facts and economic environment. both can completely change within a rather short period and my future plans might therefore lose their basis. in my [not so] humble opinion those who think they can predict how a certain future crisis will affect them and prepare exclusively for it will miserably fail because they are losing precious time to increase and divert their finances which would enable them to master a future crisis according to THEN prevailing circumstances.

'Exclusively'. Why always assume everyone on this thread is a 'gold bug', overinvested in gold and certain of a hyperinflationary currency crisis? I am hedging a reasonable portion of my net worth against the relatively small but growing possibility of a currency crisis. I have the impression many others here are doing the same. In the meantime that hedge has been appreciating nicely.

Investment is about hedging against various probabilities and adjusting your mix of assets as your educated guesstimates about those probablities change. And no one can predict with certainty how 'distant' any economic event is going to be. Those who haven't prepared are often caught with their pants down since economic events, and crises nearly by definition, move too quickly.

last not least... i am a Farang living in Thailand. it is not only a waste of time but utmost ridiculous for a Farang in Thailand adopting ideas like "buy real estate with commodities". but then... to each his own.

Not everyone on Thaivisa lives full-time in Thailand. Some have second homes, holiday homes, some may even, shock horror, be wealthy. Just not so insecure they have to repeatedly brag about it.

If you'd actually taken the time to read that essay, you'd know the point was that those who have protected a portion of their net worth from the ravages of hyperinflation may be able to rebuild their wealth by buying property cheaply using hard assets like precious metals and commodities. The argument is that the world's property markets are dominated by mortgaged, interest rate-sensitive properties. That your house is unmortgaged is irrelevant.

And not with wheelbarrows full of potatoes, duh. During such a crisis ways are always found to exchange assets. How exactly that might/will be done remains uncertain, crises only rhyme, but studying what happened in the past can at least prepare you for possibilities.

Last not least...beware, those who think they know everything and fail to periodically question their own assumptions have been known to turn back into poor boys, and not just at the stroke of midnight

Edited February 15, 2011 by crusader79

[Naam]

many years ago i stopped believing in the fairy tale "history repeats itself"

That may explain why you failed to anticipate this secular bull market in gold and were so late to participate in it. History doesn't exactly repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

one can't dance at more than one party at the same time! in a crisis situation i prefer to deal/invest in an asset class (bonds) i have three decades of experiences instead of some commodity which is at the mercy of speculators and which in three decades has not yielded a single inflationary adjusted penny.

here are a few of the two dozen examples of the bull market in which i participated in 2009/2010 (posted and discussed with several participants in this forum a number of times) which the gold lovers missed

there... there... no need to beat up your wife or kicking the dog when looking at the graphs!

[cloudhopper]

The South American experience:

The Great Hernán P.'s example is exactly what any sensible investor should do, in an inflationary or hyperinflationary period: Preserve capital at all costs, via commodities, while keeping a sharp eye out for real estate opportunities. As inflation rises and real estate prices collapse, be prepared to trade the commodities you own for real estate assets selling at depressed prices.

http://gonzalolira.b...n-and-real.html

Then what are you going to do with all that real estate you just traded your PM for? What an unlikely scenario that is. Note that in the story described the real estate was purchased for physical cash - hardly what anyone would trade real estate for in a hyper inflationary collapse. Rice, water or arable land - anything - could well prove to be a far more useful asset than PM if there is a hyper inflationary breakdown. However world banks and their puppet governments may well fail in their attempt to inflate their way out of unpayable debt (so far they are losing about 25-1) and if they do the resulting deflationary burst will make the physical cash described in the Lira article the most valuable financial asset around.

[Naam]

Then what are you going to do with all that real estate you just traded your PM for? What an unlikely scenario that is.

why unlikely CH? the real estate one trades for food stuff. as simple as that.

[crusader79]

many years ago i stopped believing in the fairy tale "history repeats itself"

That may explain why you failed to anticipate this secular bull market in gold and were so late to participate in it. History doesn't exactly repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

one can't dance at more than one party at the same time! in a crisis situation i prefer to deal/invest in an asset class (bonds) i have three decades of experiences instead of some commodity which is at the mercy of speculators and which in three decades has not yielded a single inflationary adjusted penny.

here are a few of the two dozen examples of the bull market in which i participated in 2009/2010 (posted and discussed with several participants in this forum a number of times) which the gold lovers missed

there... there... no need to beat up your wife or kicking the dog when looking at the graphs!

one can't dance at more than one party at the same time!

While chewing gum as well? Overreliance on one asset class is dangerous. That's exactly what you've been repeatedly warning about gold.

You keep mentioning thirty years but that's an arbitrary period of time with significance only to you. Over the past ten years gold has been an excellent investment.

Bonds have indeed had a great run over those thirty years, hugely profitable for you and millions of other investors. But if you assume that's going to continue indefinitely you're putting your wealth at great risk.

As for the charts, enough with the boasting. 2009/2010 produced outsize returns for everyone. Hooray. But you're the only one on this thread compelled to repeatedly brag about it. Get a grip.

[crusader79]

Then what are you going to do with all that real estate you just traded your PM for? What an unlikely scenario that is. Note that in the story described the real estate was purchased for physical cash - hardly what anyone would trade real estate for in a hyper inflationary collapse. Rice, water or arable land - anything - could well prove to be a far more useful asset than PM if there is a hyper inflationary breakdown. However world banks and their puppet governments may well fail in their attempt to inflate their way out of unpayable debt (so far they are losing about 25-1) and if they do the resulting deflationary burst will make the physical cash described in the Lira article the most valuable financial asset around.

In his earlier essays on the subject Lira stressed that it's important to remember a hyperinflationary currency collapse is a temporary and relatively brief event, quickly followed by a new monetary order. Not at all easy to do at the height of such a crisis. The world may seem to be coming to an end but it's not, the real world (of buildings, rental returns, etc.) continues as before. Hong Kong experienced a somewhat similar kind of apocalyptic environment in 2003 durings SARS. Those farsighted and brave enough to buy luxury property that year have seen returns of 600% or more. Again, extremely difficult to do.

I think it's a misnomer to talk about 'trading' PMs or commodities for other assets. It seems unlikely physical materials will actually change hands, although I suppose it's possible for PMs. I think the idea is more that if you have protected your purchasing power with hard assets, that purchasing power when converted into new (or stabilized, revalued) monetary units will provide great bargain-hunting opportunities. But that arbitrage period won't last long. It's been awhile since I've read Lira's earlier essays but I believe he talks about this as well, based on the South American experience.

That being said, I agree with you that a hyperinflationary end to the worldwide debt mountain is far from certain. Some kind of deflationary burst is still possible, which is why I think diversification remains the name of the game. We're really dealing with a completely unprecedented situation, the possible collapse of the reserve currency.

Edited February 16, 2011 by crusader79

[midas]

Then what are you going to do with all that real estate you just traded your PM for? What an unlikely scenario that is.

why unlikely CH? the real estate one trades for food stuff. as simple as that.

If you offered me real estate in say Detroit or Phoenix, Arizona ( nick named the kidnapping capital )

I would rather keep the food thanks very much

[Naam]

As for the charts, enough with the boasting. 2009/2010 produced outsize returns for everyone. Hooray. But you're the only one on this thread compelled to repeatedly brag about it. Get a grip.

for the record: in this thread the only bragging is done by those who claim they bought gold during the last 5 years. some who are a wee bit more honest claim they started buying 10 years ago. both categories boast with fictitious profit percentages and you will find no one who bought gold in the 80s or 90s in a period when gold generated only losses.

i don't brag but state facts for comparison (as i did with the charts) when poor boys like you are trying to lecture an experienced and successful investor that he should read "essays" or blame him

quote: "That may explain why you failed to anticipate this secular bull market in gold..."

nota bene: experienced investors don't read essays about hyperinflation in Argentina that happened 20 years ago. they don't follow advice such as "trade commodities for real estate". experienced investors have used all means of diversification and possible available hedging to protect their net worth and of course experienced and successful investors own properties in different countries even if they live more or less exclusively in Thailand.

last not least even experienced and most successful investors "fail to anticipate bull markets in certain asset classes" but they care shit² as long as the bottom line of their portfolio shows good returns and they will only brag about these returns if/when provoked by envious poor boys.

[crusader79]

As for the charts, enough with the boasting. 2009/2010 produced outsize returns for everyone. Hooray. But you're the only one on this thread compelled to repeatedly brag about it. Get a grip.

for the record: in this thread the only bragging is done by those who claim they bought gold during the last 5 years. some who are a wee bit more honest claim they started buying 10 years ago. both categories boast with fictitious profit percentages and you will find no one who bought gold in the 80s or 90s in a period when gold generated only losses.

i don't brag but state facts for comparison (as i did with the charts) when poor boys like you are trying to lecture an experienced and successful investor that he should read "essays" or blame him

quote: "That may explain why you failed to anticipate this secular bull market in gold..."

nota bene: experienced investors don't read essays about hyperinflation in Argentina that happened 20 years ago. they don't follow advice such as "trade commodities for real estate". experienced investors have used all means of diversification and possible available hedging to protect their net worth and of course experienced and successful investors own properties in different countries even if they live more or less exclusively in Thailand.

last not least even experienced and most successful investors "fail to anticipate bull markets in certain asset classes" but they care shit² as long as the bottom line of their portfolio shows good returns and they will only brag about these returns if/when provoked by envious poor boys.

A psychic and a braggart. Good for you

[clinique]

As for the charts, enough with the boasting. 2009/2010 produced outsize returns for everyone. Hooray. But you're the only one on this thread compelled to repeatedly brag about it. Get a grip.

for the record: in this thread the only bragging is done by those who claim they bought gold during the last 5 years. some who are a wee bit more honest claim they started buying 10 years ago. both categories boast with fictitious profit percentages and you will find no one who bought gold in the 80s or 90s in a period when gold generated only losses.

i don't brag but state facts for comparison (as i did with the charts) when poor boys like you are trying to lecture an experienced and successful investor that he should read "essays" or blame him

quote: "That may explain why you failed to anticipate this secular bull market in gold..."

nota bene: experienced investors don't read essays about hyperinflation in Argentina that happened 20 years ago. they don't follow advice such as "trade commodities for real estate". experienced investors have used all means of diversification and possible available hedging to protect their net worth and of course experienced and successful investors own properties in different countries even if they live more or less exclusively in Thailand.

last not least even experienced and most successful investors "fail to anticipate bull markets in certain asset classes" but they care shit² as long as the bottom line of their portfolio shows good returns and they will only brag about these returns if/when provoked by envious poor boys.

For the record, " even experienced and most successful investors" fail to anticipate bear markets also...