Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[old wanderer]

I moved fully into Silver 18 months ago. I have a small account I use for trading with Kitco. It has allowed me to ratio trade G/S but it took about .8 ratio change to break even. Since 3 weeks ago, then trend line is going down at a steep angle. I have remained fully invested in Silver.

By monitoring the ratio, and slope of the line, you can get some indication when to do swaps. For the physical I would just leave it set. It is doing nothing but making profit. More than 100$ in the past year. 19 months ago it took 65 oz of silver to buy 1 oz of gold, today it takes 42.

When will I move to Gold? It looks like it will be somewhere below 20:1. In any case G/S have a symbiotic relationship, and the % of gain varies from one to the other. So by moving early or late, will just effect the % of profit, not a situation where one will loose and the other gain.

We are in for one spectacular ride coming into March.

[flying]

I moved fully into Silver 18 months ago. I have a small account I use for trading with Kitco. It has allowed me to ratio trade G/S but it took about .8 ratio change to break even. Since 3 weeks ago, then trend line is going down at a steep angle. I have remained fully invested in Silver.

By monitoring the ratio, and slope of the line, you can get some indication when to do swaps. For the physical I would just leave it set. It is doing nothing but making profit. More than 100$ in the past year. 19 months ago it took 65 oz of silver to buy 1 oz of gold, today it takes 42.

When will I move to Gold? It looks like it will be somewhere below 20:1. In any case G/S have a symbiotic relationship, and the % of gain varies from one to the other. So by moving early or late, will just effect the % of profit, not a situation where one will loose and the other gain.

We are in for one spectacular ride coming into March.

Yes OW I remember you were in Silver early too.

When I backed the truck up it was 77/1 so ...I like you am happy to watch the show.

[flying]

[flying]

From Jesse's

Gotta admit the chart is pretty obvious........

"Today was the option expiration on the Comex, and those options which are 'in the money' and have not been settled for cash are now converted to March futures positions.

Depending on the size and distribution of those conversions we may see some 'action' in the front month because they are sometimes notoriously weak hands and will receive at least one 'gut check.'"

And a gut check to run the stops was very obviously delivered in the afternoon trading session at the Comex and across the monthly contracts.

This is remniscent of the 'Dr. Evil' strategy that got Citi warned and fined in Europe a few years ago. Memories of Citi's Eurobond Manipulation At the time one of the defenses offered by an ex-pat trader was 'in the US everybody does it.' Has JPM taken up the trading strategy that Citi once made infamous? And why would banks be trading for themselves in markets with players they help to finance, and with public money?

Large players can come into a relatively small market and drive the price by selling in size, running the stop loss orders which they often can 'see' through probing orders and positional advantage, and essentially bomb the market, manipulating the price in the short term to their advantage. The profit is made through derivative and correlated bets that depend on the price of the metal, index, or bond such as shorts on mining stocks, currencies, bonds, etc.

This is why the 'uptick rule' in stocks served a purpose, and why regulators are in place to keep an eye on big players with deep pockets and a far reach. In a properly regulated market the CFTC would immediatly pull the trading records for today and track the big sellers, and inquire as to the reasons for their sudden selling in a quiet market.

It *could* have been a hedge fund margin call. It could even have been a margin call provoked by a bank tightening credit lines with one hand while playing the market with their other hand. There were rumours being spread all week keying in on the day after expiration. I do not have any inside information, no special knowledge, only the advantage of experience and a watchful eye on the markets.

And so there it all is. I was ready for it. I may or may not make money from it, but at least I had flattened my positions as I had said earlier this week and did not lose from it. But it sickens me to the heart nonetheless, to see a once great government fallen so low.

[badge]

Robbers Make Off with $750,000 in Silver Bars

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/News/2011/2/Pages/Robbers-Make-Off-with-750000-in-Silver-Bars.aspx

[churchill]

Why Gold is cheap -

Compare how Gold is created and then think how easy it is for Bernanke to print a bill /

'Gold is a rare, odd-numbered atom with 79 protons. For every single gold atom in the universe, there are 1 million iron atoms, Tyson says.

A Long Journey

After the explosion, those few gold atoms are cast deep into the universe where they sit in empty space for eons. Eventually, some of the atoms may join a cloud. That cloud may condense into a planet.

Once inside a planet, some of the atoms may make it near the surface where we can come and dig them up.

So every atom of gold in your wedding ring was forged in a collapsing star, and then traveled across the universe to get to your finger. All the gold we wear and all the gold we give has made this same journey.

So how many miles and how many years are represented in a ring?

Calculating the path from several supernovae around our galaxy back to our solar system, Tyson concludes, all told, it's a journey of 3 million light years.'

more .. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=7397200

[churchill]

A wave gathering pace ...

Bank of India becomes first to offer trade settlement in yuan

Read more: Bank of India becomes first to offer trade settlement in yuan - The Times of India http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/Bank-of-India-becomes-first-to-offer-trade-settlement-in-yuan/articleshow/7565143.cms#ixzz1Ey3KbAR

and

Miners can save 10pc from yuan deals: ANZ

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/miners-can-save-10pc-from-yuan-deals-anz/story-e6frg8zx-1226010357770

[DavidMavec]

Slightly off topic but I was wondering what the laws were for taking gold out of Thailand via airplane. I was thinking of investing in some but if I leave the country not sure if this is a good idea... thanks for any tips.

[cloudhopper]

Slightly off topic but I was wondering what the laws were for taking gold out of Thailand via airplane. I was thinking of investing in some but if I leave the country not sure if this is a good idea... thanks for any tips.

I would imagine the laws of the destination country would be far more important in practice.

[cloudhopper]

The last sentence should be of interest to followers of this thread.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/03/china-holdings-of-us-treasuries-revised.html

[churchill]

The last sentence +

'Although it is relatively easy to explain what is happening and why, it's also important to know the existing global currency hegemony will eventually collapse because the current model is unsustainable.

Countries cannot run massive deficits forever.

However, a global currency crisis does not necessarily start with the US dollar, nor does a crisis necessarily happen any time soon. A major crisis starting with the Euro, the Yen, the British Pound, or the Yuan is at least as likely, and the timeframe can be months or years away.

Whenever it happens, don't be caught without gold.''

Months away ? USD Falling / Switch from GLD to Mining Shares taking place ?

I found it very strange that all emerging markets & Gold sold off after Jan 1st - Gold has recovered but EM's not / Is there a way of knowing the hedge funds moves before they happen - It seems for little reason Emerging Markets are being sold off - Perhaps the time to buy ?

Also strange that the Euro now seems the strong currency against the $ even with all its problems /

Gold seems to be very underowned as many were predicting large falls - and many as always waiting for a lower price /

CNBC as always saying that PM's must fall as their rise has been too fast - but when you compare gold or silver or PM shares to the Dow or Apple or many stocks I don't think their run is even starting /

Edited March 1, 2011 by churchill

[Naam]

let's see whether >1425 holds:

[flying]

let's see whether >1425 holds:

Yep interesting to watch....

Meanwhile silver looked like it was making a run for $35 USD today closed at $34.71

[flying]

Egypt bans export of gold in any form -agency

CAIRO, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Egypt has issued a ministerial decree immediately banning the export of gold in all its forms, including jewellery and ornaments, until June 30, the official news agency MENA said on Sunday.

"This decision, which comes in light of the exceptional circumstances the country is passing through ..., is to preserve the country's wealth until the situation stabilises," MENA said.

Egypt's currency has come under pressure after some of the country's main sources of foreign currency, including tourism and foreign investment, collapsed after the protests that ousted President Hosni Mubarak erupted on Jan. 25.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dow Jones Newswires

via The Wall Street Journal

Monday, February 28, 2011

HANOI -- Vietnam's central bank is proposing that the government issue regulations to ban the trade of gold bullion from the second quarter of this year, state media reported Monday, citing the State Bank of Vietnam.

"The State Bank of Vietnam in the second quarter will request that the government issue a decree on management of gold trading, aiming to control imports and exports of gold and to ban the trading of gold bullion in the free market," the state-run Vietnam News Agency said.

"Trading of gold bullion is seen only in Vietnam but not in other countries," it said. "It is bad for the economy because (the country) has to import gold, which causes trade deficits."

The elimination of gold bullion trading is "necessary and timely," as the government is rolling out measures to tame inflation and stabilize macroeconomic conditions, it said.

Edited March 2, 2011 by flying

[churchill]

Gold Buying in China Is 200 Tons So Far This Year, UBS Says

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-03-02/gold-buying-in-china-is-200-tons-so-far-this-year-ubs-says.html

AND

'In China, together with the government's regulation of the property market, investors are increasingly putting their weight behind gold.

Industry insiders expect the gold market is likely to attract nearly 500 billion yuan in capital from the property market.'

http://english.cntv.cn/program/bizasia/20110302/104709.shtml

and a nice video for those that like charts - Naam ?

A mega-day for gold and silver

http://club.ino.com/trading/2011/03/a-mega-day-for-gold-and-silver/

[churchill]

Internet sparking revolutions /

Internet exposing Bankers crooked ways / manipulation /

Who trusts the markets - Who trusts Bernanke /

Who trusts USD /

Cards waiting to fall /

Gold cannot be recreated - (see previous post) - Gold the intergalactial currency - Naam ?

Edited March 2, 2011 by churchill

[Naam]

1. Gold cannot be recreated.

2. Gold the intergalactial currency - Naam ?

1. no metal and a bunch of other commodities (best example is crude oil) can be recreated.

2. Mrs Naam is convinced it will be, i am not.

[churchill]

A wave gathering pace ...

Bank of India becomes first to offer trade settlement in yuan

Read more: Bank of India becomes first to offer trade settlement in yuan - The Times of India http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/Bank-of-India-becomes-first-to-offer-trade-settlement-in-yuan/articleshow/7565143.cms#ixzz1Ey3KbAR

and

Miners can save 10pc from yuan deals: ANZ

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/miners-can-save-10pc-from-yuan-deals-anz/story-e6frg8zx-1226010357770

China "Attacks The Dollar" - Moves To Further Cement Renminbi Reserve Currency Status

'In a surprising turn of events, today's biggest piece of news received a mere two paragraph blurb on Reuters, and was thoroughly ignored by the broader media. An announcement appeared shortly after midnight on the website of the People's Bank of China.

The statement, google translated as "Pragmatic and pioneering spirit to promote cross-border renminbi business cum on monitoring and analysis to a new level"

continued ..

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-moves-making-renminbi-reserve-currency

Edited March 3, 2011 by churchill

[churchill]

A Conspiracy With a Silver Lining

'The Hunts may be gone from the market, but there are still plenty of people suspicious about the trading in silver, and now they have the Web to explore and to expand their conspiracy narratives. This time around — according to bloggers and commenters on sites with names like Silverseek, 321Gold and Seeking Alpha — silver shot up in price after a whistleblower exposed an alleged conspiracy to keep the price artificially low despite the inflationary pressure of the Fed’s cheap money policy. (Some even suspect that the Fed itself was behind the effort to keep silver prices low, as a way to keep the dollar’s value artificially high.) Trying to unravel the mysterious rise in silver’s price is a conspiracy theorist’s dream, replete with powerful bankers, informants, suspicious car accidents and a now a squeeze on short sellers. Most intriguingly, however, much of the speculation seems highly plausible. '

more .. http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/a-conspiracy-with-a-silver-lining/?hp

[Naam]

Some even suspect that the Fed itself was behind the effort to keep silver prices low, as a way to keep the dollar’s value artificially high.

[Naam]

Moves To Further Cement Renminbi Reserve Currency Status

what does not exist cannot be "cemented"

[powderpuff]

Gold on the spot market making new highs everyday.

Thanks Mister Obama.

[churchill]

Moves To Further Cement Renminbi Reserve Currency Status

what does not exist cannot be "cemented"

like trying to keep the Euro from falling apart -

or for USD from crashing unless supported by China & all

[Naam]

1. Gold on the spot market making new highs everyday.

2. Thanks Mister Obama.

1. not in all currencies

2. Bush, jr. warned him, but Obama did not listen and invaded Iraq and Afghanistan...

[flying]

Gold on the spot market making new highs everyday.

Thanks Mister Obama.

That would make sense if gold was making highs in only the USD

Not that I care for Mr Obama as he is just another puppet like the village idiot that came before him.

But to say Thanks Obama for the highs in gold?

You would need to expand your list to include the puppets from each country.

[Naam]

disappointing for the gold aficionados is the combination of a weaker US-Dollar and a weaker Gold price.

[flying]

disappointing for the gold aficionados is the combination of a weaker US-Dollar and a weaker Gold price.

Yes strange day & we will see what happens tomorrow.

Overall cant complain for where we have come from these last few years.

I actually prefer seeing gold go & rest & go & rest. The retreats are never too bad.

Then again physical gold is now running spot + $80 usd on most coins & bars are at spot + $50 usd

A far cry from a couple years ago when $40 was the norm over spot for coins

Also notice Silver @ $34.50 tonight...Not bad at all

Physical silver is at spot + $4.69 usd coins & bars at spot + $3 usd

Again a couple of years ago it was spot + $2 for coins

So the physical market does some adjustments on its own.

As does these paper markets eh?

Edited March 4, 2011 by flying

[gregb]

disappointing for the gold aficionados is the combination of a weaker US-Dollar and a weaker Gold price.

Yes strange day & we will see what happens tomorrow.

Overall cant complain for where we have come from these last few years.

I actually prefer seeing gold go & rest & go & rest. The retreats are never too bad.

Then again physical gold is now running spot + $80 usd on most coins & bars are at spot + $50 usd

A far cry from a couple years ago when $40 was the norm over spot for coins

Also notice Silver @ $34.50 tonight...Not bad at all

Physical silver is at spot + $4.69 usd coins & bars at spot + $3 usd

Again a couple of years ago it was spot + $2 for coins

So the physical market does some adjustments on its own.

As does these paper markets eh?

This is true, but when viewed in percentage terms it has barely changed at all.

If gold at $800 had a $40 markup, and gold at $1400 has an $80 markup, then it went from 5% to 5.7%. Not a huge difference there.

The premium on silver has actually gone down as a percentage of the cost of the coin, with the price almost doubling and the premium going up by only 60% or so.

Most businesses set the retail price as cost plus a percentage, so I don't see why gold shops should be held to a different standard. After all, it isn't fair to say that gold is real money, that everything stays the same in reference to gold, and then in the same breath say that gold shops themselves must be evaluated in depreciating fiat currency.

In real money (gold money) terms, premiums haven't really risen at all.

[flying]

In real money (gold money) terms, premiums haven't really risen at all.

In hind sight

I guess your right when looking at it in percentage of total price

[12DrinkMore]

Just to keep you goldbulls excited.

http://www.sprott.com/Docs/MarketsataGlance/2011/January_2011.pdf