Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[churchill]

What happens when QE2 ends ( if it does ) ?

Higher interest rates so big problems for markets and the $ ,and real estate must go down another leg / I am not sure about PM's - It could be a question of everything selling off /

I think Trichet is bluffing with talk of higher rates next month - If rates rise in Europe the Euro could have big problems /

So given bankers problems perhaps they will keep QE going - a little bit ! bluffing to try to keep inflation lower , markets higher and kick the can for a little longer /

So To switch to THB or SGD from Euro/USD ? Sell PM's ( if qe ends ) in a month or so ?

From Pimco

'Investors should view June 30th, 2011 not as political historians view November 11th, 1918 (Armistice Day – a day of reconciliation and healing) but more like June 6th, 1944 (D-Day – a day fraught with hope for victory, but fueled with immediate uncertainty and fear as to what would happen in the short term). Bond yields and stock prices are resting on an artificial foundation of QE II credit that may or may not lead to a successful private market handoff and stability in currency and financial markets. 15% gratuities may lie ahead, but more than likely there is a negative two-bit or even eight-bit tip lying on the investment table. Like I did 45 years ago, PIMCO’s not sticking around to see the waitress’s reaction.'

http://www.pimco.com/Pages/Two-Bits-Four-Bits-Six-Bits-a-Dollar.aspx#

[gregb]

I am so glad I moved into silver 1.5 years ago...haven't made any money, just preserved what I have.

how did you manage not to make any money with silver gaining more than 100%?

There are 2 possible interpretations to that statement.

1. Old Wanderer considers silver itself to be "money". In which case, unless one silver coin took another silver coin out for dinner and a movie, closed the deal and made a little baby silver coin in the bargain, it is true that he has no more "money" than he had to begin with. He may have more notional fiat value, but that could be a different thing than money depending on your perspective.

2. As I believe it is always you who point out to us Naam, the only way to make money on collectibles such as PMs is to actually sell said collectibles. They don't pay dividends. Thus, if Old Wanderer has not sold his silver, by your own logic he in fact has not made any money.

I don't think it is smart to get excited about PMs increasing in fiat value. The fact is it simply means you'll be able to acquire less in the future, and the global situation is only going to get worse from here on out. I too feel I have not made any money, despite gold tripling in THB value since I started collecting it. In the long run, I'll be happy if I can just keep what I have now. That is going to be impossible for most of us. As delightful as the previous 2 centuries of ascent and growth have been for the majority, the coming 2 centuries of descent and collapse are going to be dismal.

[Naam]

As I believe it is always you who point out to us Naam, the only way to make money on collectibles such as PMs is to actually sell said collectibles. They don't pay dividends. Thus, if Old Wanderer has not sold his silver, by your own logic he in fact has not made any money.

that is a misinterpretation of my thinking/perspective. of course i consider having made money with an asset if it goes up in price even though i don't realise the profit. important is the fact that one can sell any time -provided liquidity exists- and use the profits for whatever needs one has.

ultimately the precious metals aficionado has to sell -for various reasons- some of his holdings. if he does not he must be having an income paid in "worthless fiat" to pay for his/her living expenses. and that applies also to the heavenly times (for which the PM fans pray every evening before bedtime) when shelter, clothing and food is only available by barter trade against gold, silver or whatever precious collectibles one owns.

it's the paradox behaviour of some (not all!) "bugs" which i consider utmost ridiculous. they don't miss any opportunity to make derogatory remarks about the "toilet paper worthless fiat money" but seem to forget that they (or their wives) use "fiat" each and every day to pay for any expenditure occur. how their gray cells work is a mystery to me.

there's a goldbug living in our home (i'm married to her >31 years) who's gold hoarding is meant to compensate for any apolcalyptic time we might face in future. luckily (for her and for me) she is not as stupid to believe that we can take our gold to the crematorium or graveyard if these times do not surface in our lifetime. then our heirs will of course have a ball and that's why i have since years sign on my desk which says "Fly first class, your heirs will!"

[churchill]

What happens when QE2 ends ( if it does ) ?

Higher interest rates so big problems for markets and the $ ,and real estate must go down another leg / I am not sure about PM's - It could be a question of everything selling off /

I think Trichet is bluffing with talk of higher rates next month - If rates rise in Europe the Euro could have big problems /

So given bankers problems perhaps they will keep QE going - a little bit ! bluffing to try to keep inflation lower , markets higher and kick the can for a little longer /

So To switch to THB or SGD from Euro/USD ? Sell PM's ( if qe ends ) in a month or so ?

From Pimco

'Investors should view June 30th, 2011 not as political historians view November 11th, 1918 (Armistice Day – a day of reconciliation and healing) but more like June 6th, 1944 (D-Day – a day fraught with hope for victory, but fueled with immediate uncertainty and fear as to what would happen in the short term). Bond yields and stock prices are resting on an artificial foundation of QE II credit that may or may not lead to a successful private market handoff and stability in currency and financial markets. 15% gratuities may lie ahead, but more than likely there is a negative two-bit or even eight-bit tip lying on the investment table. Like I did 45 years ago, PIMCO’s not sticking around to see the waitress’s reaction.'

http://www.pimco.com/Pages/Two-Bits-Four-Bits-Six-Bits-a-Dollar.aspx#

Bill Gross Dumps All Treasuries, Brings Total "Government Related" Holdings To Zero, Flees To Cash - No QE3?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-bill-gross-dumps-all-treasuries-brings-total-government-related-holdings-zero-flee

[lannarebirth]

What happens when QE2 ends ( if it does ) ?

Higher interest rates so big problems for markets and the $ ,and real estate must go down another leg / I am not sure about PM's - It could be a question of everything selling off /

I think Trichet is bluffing with talk of higher rates next month - If rates rise in Europe the Euro could have big problems /

So given bankers problems perhaps they will keep QE going - a little bit ! bluffing to try to keep inflation lower , markets higher and kick the can for a little longer /

So To switch to THB or SGD from Euro/USD ? Sell PM's ( if qe ends ) in a month or so ?

From Pimco

'Investors should view June 30th, 2011 not as political historians view November 11th, 1918 (Armistice Day a day of reconciliation and healing) but more like June 6th, 1944 (D-Day a day fraught with hope for victory, but fueled with immediate uncertainty and fear as to what would happen in the short term). Bond yields and stock prices are resting on an artificial foundation of QE II credit that may or may not lead to a successful private market handoff and stability in currency and financial markets. 15% gratuities may lie ahead, but more than likely there is a negative two-bit or even eight-bit tip lying on the investment table. Like I did 45 years ago, PIMCO's not sticking around to see the waitress's reaction.'

http://www.pimco.com...-a-Dollar.aspx#

Bill Gross Dumps All Treasuries, Brings Total "Government Related" Holdings To Zero, Flees To Cash - No QE3?

http://www.zerohedge...dings-zero-flee

I enjoyed this comment under the article:

by Divided States ...

on Wed, 03/09/2011 - 09:15

#1032679

If he sold all of it, then whose the dumbass on the other side of that trade??

I think I know who.

Edited March 9, 2011 by lannarebirth

[flying]

196% actually ....

there... there... Flying. pocket calculator broken? sep9, 2008 closing price 16.90, today mar9, 2011 spot 35.91 = +112.49%

:jap:

Mai Chai my friend

October 2008 spot @ $9.45 + $2 prem = $11.45/oz

March 9 2011 spot @ $35.73 =212.052% :D

The reason I am @ 196% is I added a Little after that

Edited March 9, 2011 by flying

[Naam]

196% actually ....

there... there... Flying. pocket calculator broken? sep9, 2008 closing price 16.90, today mar9, 2011 spot 35.91 = +112.49%

:jap:

Mai Chai my friend

October 2008 spot @ $9.45 + $2 prem = $11.45/oz

March 9 2011 spot @ $35.73 =212.052% :D

The reason I am @ 196% is I added a Little after that

sorry typo! my posting should have read sep 2009 (not 2008). the OP mentioned 1.5 years. after extensive research (google, etc.) i reached the conclusion that 1.5 years back it was september 2009 where the price for silver was a i stated and thus the price increase was 112.xx%.

[Naam]

I think Trichet is bluffing with talk of higher rates next month - If rates rise in Europe the Euro could have big problems

please share your wisdom with us Churchill.

[churchill]

As the bankers sell massive amounts of silver( and gold ) they don't own the price will not stay down /

and if they cannot force it down They derserve everything they are about to recieve /

Have you learned nothing?

The bastards will get bailed out.

There are, IMO, believable ideas that Brown flogged off the UK gold at rock bottom prices to save a couple of banks with massive short positions that had to be covered.

From Jesse

'Without admitting any wrongdoing of course. The Fed can print enough paper to cover their losses. I suspect this would be done in concert with some other crisis. So I would not be looking for JPM to 'crash' per se. Rather, I would look for the next bagman patsy for a stealth bailout of the banks such as the role that AIG played for the Street in the 2008 financial crisis.

This gives me rough targets of $2000 gold and $125 silver. If you prefer $400 silver, then you should be looking for gold around $4000. And I think gold will at least reach a ratio of 2:1 with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and maybe 1:1, so take it from there.'

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/03/whats-going-on-in-silver-market-audio.html

[churchill]

I think Trichet is bluffing with talk of higher rates next month - If rates rise in Europe the Euro could have big problems

please share your wisdom with us Churchill.

I don't see how increased rates will be helpful for Spain , Ireland , Portugal , Greece and put further strains on these already suffering economies and not help Spain or Ireland's Housing markets and so European Banks ... /

What do you think ?

Edited March 10, 2011 by churchill

[churchill]

This is what I am worried about and not sure how to play Gold and Silver in the coming months - Any comments ?

'There's a scenario that could play out between May and September in which commodities (including my beloved silver) and the stock and bond markets could all sell off between 20% and 40%. The trigger will be the cessation of QE II and a multi-month pause before QE III'

The Coming Rout

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/coming-rout/53869

[Naam]

I think Trichet is bluffing with talk of higher rates next month - If rates rise in Europe the Euro could have big problems

please share your wisdom with us Churchill.

I don't see how increased rates will be helpful for Spain , Ireland , Portugal , Greece and put further strains on these already suffering economies and not help Spain or Ireland's Housing markets and so European Banks ... /

What do you think ?

in my opinion increased €CB rates (if, then a meager 0.25%) will have no impact at all as far as PIIGS rates are concerned. their refinancing rates are driven by different factors. besides, the €CB (like any other central bank) can only influence short term rates directly. all other rates, and especially those of the PIIGS are determined by the market participants.

[Naam]

I think Trichet is bluffing with talk of higher rates next month

Jean-Claude has no reason to bluff and the decision whether to hike rates or not is not up to him alone. his voice/vote does not count more than the votes of his colleagues.

[Naam]

If you prefer $400 silver, then you should be looking for gold around $4000

and if my grandmother was still alive and had wheels she would be causing traffic jams at Jesse's crossroads

[Naam]

the Euro could have big problems

hardly any business in EURo-Land likes a strong €UR and that applies especially to those businesses which export.

[badge]

Just to interject in the ThiaVisa washing machine cycle, heres an irreverent look at valuing todays shiny tulips;

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2011/03/measuring_inflation

and an interesting piece on AG;

http://www.economist.com/blogs/buttonwood/2011/03/commodities

[old wanderer]

I am so glad I moved into silver 1.5 years ago...haven't made any money, just preserved what I have.

how did you manage not to make any money with silver gaining more than 100%?

There are 2 possible interpretations to that statement.

1. Old Wanderer considers silver itself to be "money". In which case, unless one silver coin took another silver coin out for dinner and a movie, closed the deal and made a little baby silver coin in the bargain, it is true that he has no more "money" than he had to begin with. He may have more notional fiat value, but that could be a different thing than money depending on your perspective.

2. As I believe it is always you who point out to us Naam, the only way to make money on collectibles such as PMs is to actually sell said collectibles. They don't pay dividends. Thus, if Old Wanderer has not sold his silver, by your own logic he in fact has not made any money.

I don't think it is smart to get excited about PMs increasing in fiat value. The fact is it simply means you'll be able to acquire less in the future, and the global situation is only going to get worse from here on out. I too feel I have not made any money, despite gold tripling in THB value since I started collecting it. In the long run, I'll be happy if I can just keep what I have now. That is going to be impossible for most of us. As delightful as the previous 2 centuries of ascent and growth have been for the majority, the coming 2 centuries of descent and collapse are going to be dismal.

You are correct in surmising I have not sold anything. I look at the rapidly escalating prices, and while the fiat value has indeed been near 200%, that is somewhat diminished by the 40% increase in most prices.

I always enjoy looking at this graph from Zimbabwe. Look at the Zimbabwe stock exchange that went from 1,420 in January 2005 to 5.4 trillion in June 2008, a 3 billion per cent increase.

I have been accused of sometimes wearing a tin foil hat, however, those residents of Rhodesia, who traded their dollars on a 1:1 ratio for the Zimbabwe dollar, never believed they could gain 3 billion per cent on their investments.....or did they???

Could this happen to the worlds reserve currency as well?

Well I am no mahdoo, (fortune teller), but I am content to let my pile of silver bricks continue to lie here, not making a penny of interest, nor generating one stang of tax liability.

[Khun Jean]

I just sold another batch of gold, but i am not going to add to my silver yet. I think that without QE3 the dollar will appreciate and make silver purchases cheaper.

"Sell in may .." is maybe too late. But i will "remember to be back in september" because i think that after a period without QE the calls for a new one or another strategy complete with its own acronym that will allow the printing of dollars in larger and larger amounts will be created by The Bernank.

[Naam]

I just sold another batch of gold, but i am not going to add to my silver yet. I think that without QE3 the dollar will appreciate and make silver purchases cheaper.

a cautious and realistic approach!

[badge]

You are correct in surmising I have not sold anything. I look at the rapidly escalating prices, and while the fiat value has indeed been near 200%, that is somewhat diminished by the 40% increase in most prices.

I always enjoy looking at this graph from Zimbabwe. Look at the Zimbabwe stock exchange that went from 1,420 in January 2005 to 5.4 trillion in June 2008, a 3 billion per cent increase.

I have been accused of sometimes wearing a tin foil hat, however, those residents of Rhodesia, who traded their dollars on a 1:1 ratio for the Zimbabwe dollar, never believed they could gain 3 billion per cent on their investments.....or did they???

Could this happen to the worlds reserve currency as well?

Well I am no mahdoo, (fortune teller), but I am content to let my pile of silver bricks continue to lie here, not making a penny of interest, nor generating one stang of tax liability.

Is it entirely valid to compare Zimbabwe and USA?

PM's are great markets to trade, just make sure youre not the last one out.

[Naam]

Is it entirely valid to compare Zimbabwe and USA?

Mr. Gloom&Doom (aka Marc Faber) did it.

"May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will enter “hyperinflation” approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates, investor Marc Faber said."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=avgZDYM6mTFA

[powderpuff]

US Gold Coins

This is pretty cool. You can buy one ounce fine gold Lady Liberty or St. Gaudens for the man who designed the engraving.

The gold is not 100% pure but the weight is over one troy ounce so at the end of the day you have one troy ounce of gold.

As we know spot gold was recently $1445 an ounce so looks like you pay about $100 above spot for minting shipping insurance etc. Of interest to AMERICANS only.

[flying]

Interesting week for PM's

In spite of volatility they finish the week quite flat

I think from last Friday till today there is only a +.10 cent USD change in gold &

-.30 cent change in Silver

I expected more volatility in either direction.

[churchill]

Interesting week for PM's

In spite of volatility they finish the week quite flat

I think from last Friday till today there is only a +.10 cent USD change in gold &

-.30 cent change in Silver

I expected more volatility in either direction.

I think the terrible events of the last week or so have made people much more cautious - I sold some ( less than 5% ) of my PM stocks yesterday - but think with all the current events PM's will be well supported at this time .

Edited March 19, 2011 by churchill

[Scott123]

I only invested US$10K in Gold, and US$5K in Silver 1.5 years ago, but I still have a big cash holding. Of course I regret not buying more gold at that time. Since then, I have been so indecisive that I missed all the dips, in fear of lost. Oh well, now at the price of >$1300 gold, I don't know if I should get in now.

Life is so difficult, we all work so hard to make a living, and now have to live in fear of the world economic disasters.

Edited March 19, 2011 by Scott123

[Scott123]

Interesting week for PM's

In spite of volatility they finish the week quite flat

I think from last Friday till today there is only a +.10 cent USD change in gold &

-.30 cent change in Silver

I expected more volatility in either direction.

I think the terrible events of the last week or so have made people much more cautious - I sold some ( less than 5% ) of my PM stocks yesterday - but think with all the current events PM's will be well supported at this time .

Here is my logic:

China already raised their rate and worker's pay, and their intend is to shift inflation directly to the U.S.

Also, Japan injected QE last week. The world is now flooded with cash. So, in the second half of the year, the U.S. will have no choice but raising interest rate.

When the U.S. raised the interest rate, Gold will come down.

[churchill]

Interesting week for PM's

In spite of volatility they finish the week quite flat

I think from last Friday till today there is only a +.10 cent USD change in gold &

-.30 cent change in Silver

I expected more volatility in either direction.

I think the terrible events of the last week or so have made people much more cautious - I sold some ( less than 5% ) of my PM stocks yesterday - but think with all the current events PM's will be well supported at this time .

Here is my logic:

China already raised their rate and worker's pay, and their intend is to shift inflation directly to the U.S.

Also, Japan injected QE last week. The world is now flooded with cash. So, in the second half of the year, the U.S. will have no choice but raising interest rate.

When the U.S. raised the interest rate, Gold will come down.

Most countries , companies , people in the west cannot afford higher interest rates - so what to do ? Borrow more ? Print more ?

[ThaisGood]

Interesting week for PM's

In spite of volatility they finish the week quite flat

I think from last Friday till today there is only a +.10 cent USD change in gold &

-.30 cent change in Silver

I expected more volatility in either direction.

I think the terrible events of the last week or so have made people much more cautious - I sold some ( less than 5% ) of my PM stocks yesterday - but think with all the current events PM's will be well supported at this time .

Here is my logic:

China already raised their rate and worker's pay, and their intend is to shift inflation directly to the U.S.

Also, Japan injected QE last week. The world is now flooded with cash. So, in the second half of the year, the U.S. will have no choice but raising interest rate.

When the U.S. raised the interest rate, Gold will come down.

Most countries , companies , people in the west cannot afford higher interest rates - so what to do ? Borrow more ? Print more ?

I agree. I can't see any scenario where rates rise in USA. The govt is far too much in debt, and higher interest payments will cause immediate bankruptcy. That is why gold can only go up, up and up until there is a collapse eventually. Is there something wrong with this analysis?

[Naam]

I can't see any scenario where rates rise in USA. The govt is far too much in debt, and higher interest payments will cause immediate bankruptcy. That is why gold can only go up, up and up until there is a collapse eventually. Is there something wrong with this analysis?

wrong is that you don't tell us the exact date of the gold collapse.

[flying]

I can't see any scenario where rates rise in USA. The govt is far too much in debt, and higher interest payments will cause immediate bankruptcy. That is why gold can only go up, up and up until there is a collapse eventually. Is there something wrong with this analysis?

wrong is that you don't tell us the exact date of the gold collapse.

Well actually a collapse of gold implies a rise/repair of all currencies it is measured in.

I would be more interested in where that is coming from & of course when would be nice too