Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

I can't see any scenario where rates rise in USA. The govt is far too much in debt, and higher interest payments will cause immediate bankruptcy. That is why gold can only go up, up and up until there is a collapse eventually. Is there something wrong with this analysis?

wrong is that you don't tell us the exact date of the gold collapse.

Well actually a collapse of gold implies a rise/repair of all currencies it is measured in. I would be more interested in where that is coming from & of course when would be nice too

rising real interest rates might not lead to a gold collapse but will weaken it considerably.

[churchill]

I can't see any scenario where rates rise in USA. The govt is far too much in debt, and higher interest payments will cause immediate bankruptcy. That is why gold can only go up, up and up until there is a collapse eventually. Is there something wrong with this analysis?

wrong is that you don't tell us the exact date of the gold collapse.

Well actually a collapse of gold implies a rise/repair of all currencies it is measured in. I would be more interested in where that is coming from & of course when would be nice too

rising real interest rates might not lead to a gold collapse but will weaken it considerably.

Agreed the Key word being 'Real '

[flying]

rising real interest rates might not lead to a gold collapse but will weaken it considerably.

Do I detect a buying opportunity for Mrs Naam & myself?

[Naam]

rising real interest rates might not lead to a gold collapse but will weaken it considerably.

Do I detect a buying opportunity for Mrs Naam & myself?

Mrs Naam had a choice and (unfortunately) she chose what gives me not only a big headache but will also burn a big hole in our portfolio. it was either tons of gold or $,$$$,$$$ to remodel her ancestral property fit for living purposes in accordance with some stupid laws which protect "buildings of national heritage". you know the details Flying.

my mistake was to think i could bend those laws a little bit by shelling out an appropriate amount of "tea money". but i am dealing with a whole department and a bunch of government officials which means tea money has to be substituted with amounts of money which would buy crates (plural) of fancy old wines.

and bouncing from and back to Thailand twice a month p*sses me off too!

p.s. should i divorce Mrs Naam? honest answers and advice highly appreciated! :jap:

[Naam]

Agreed the Key word being 'Real '

correct!

[flying]

Mrs Naam had a choice and (unfortunately) she chose what gives me not only a big headache but will also burn a big hole in our portfolio. it was either tons of gold or $,$$$,$$$ to remodel her ancestral property fit for living purposes in accordance with some stupid laws which protect "buildings of national heritage". you know the details Flying.

my mistake was to think i could bend those laws a little bit by shelling out an appropriate amount of "tea money". but i am dealing with a whole department and a bunch of government officials which means tea money has to be substituted with amounts of money which would buy crates (plural) of fancy old wines.

and bouncing from and back to Thailand twice a month p*sses me off too!

p.s. should i divorce Mrs Naam? honest answers and advice highly appreciated! :jap:

your a real world traveler being versed in various tea monies

traveling those distances anything more than once a year would piss me off too

Divorce a woman who knows the value of holding gold???? You have been traveling too much & I suggest R&R to come back to your senses

Say two prayers of your choice & buy the Mrs another kilo of gold for your sinful thoughts of divorce

[Naam]

you are biased Flying and i did not expect any other answer from you

[Khun Jean]

I only invested US$10K in Gold, and US$5K in Silver 1.5 years ago, but I still have a big cash holding. Of course I regret not buying more gold at that time. Since then, I have been so indecisive that I missed all the dips, in fear of lost. Oh well, now at the price of >$1300 gold, I don't know if I should get in now.

Life is so difficult, we all work so hard to make a living, and now have to live in fear of the world economic disasters.

There are many other things that hold value. Think about solar, equipment, food (in many forms varying from making a garden to buying in bulk), water purification. Worth their weight many times over in gold when shtf but still worth their money when the normal course of inflationary economics continue.

Building resilience is the most important in any circumstance. Trusting 'just in time' delivery of goods is the first thing to fail when economic or natural disaster strikes. Even a few days cut off caused by a storm or heavy snowfall can cause your local system come to a hold. 3-4 days without power and water is the least you should be able to cope with.

[ThaisGood]

I can't see any scenario where rates rise in USA. The govt is far too much in debt, and higher interest payments will cause immediate bankruptcy. That is why gold can only go up, up and up until there is a collapse eventually. Is there something wrong with this analysis?

wrong is that you don't tell us the exact date of the gold collapse.

The collapse I referred to, if rates rise, is in paper currency not gold. If rates rise, of course that reduces the price of gold. The US govt can not afford higher interest payments on all the debt, thus interest rates must not go up. Therefore gold will continue to rise in terms of paper currency, until there is a collapse or devaluation in paper currency (refer to Mexico 1994 as one example). At that point interest rates will likely rise but not until then. Any responses welcome.

[jcon]

Don't divorce your wife, Naam - just use this as some "mia noi leverage."

[Naam]

Don't divorce your wife, Naam - just use this as some "mia noi leverage."

she will not allocate more pocket money that i can afford additional blue pills

[flying]

Will JPMorgan Now Make and Take 'Delivery' of Its Own Silver Shorts?

[Naam]

gold finally looking much better, silver looking "betterest".

[flying]

gold finally looking much better, silver looking "betterest".

As Silver heads over $38 USD/ oz I have to agree

Gold not too shabby either at $1447 USD/oz

[Khun Jean]

The Bernank just announced he will do more press conferences. Meaning their reputation is going down hill and they need some more ways to spout propaganda in preparation for QE3.

The euro is up since i decided to delay my silver purchases. Still i am waiting for the dip measured in US$.

[Naam]

gold finally looking much better, silver looking "betterest".

As Silver heads over $38 USD/ oz I have to agree

Gold not too shabby either at $1447 USD/oz

what caused the drop at 13.00 hrs NY time?

[flying]

what caused the drop at 13.00 hrs NY time?

option expiry is on Monday the 28th?

Usually we will see a raid to drop it then Tuesday it will run at least back to where it was.

At least that is what I have seen a few times in a row now.

[Naam]

what caused the drop at 13.00 hrs NY time?

option expiry is on Monday the 28th?

Usually we will see a raid to drop it then Tuesday it will run at least back to where it was.

At least that is what I have seen a few times in a row now.

everybody who is in the market knows when options expire. that does not explain the drop which happened within half an hour.

[Khun Jean]

It is crucial for JPM to have the silver price lower. Expect them to do whatever is necessary.

Opening a vault is only one way.

[cloudhopper]

what caused the drop at 13.00 hrs NY time?

That's when Jamie, Benny, Timmy and Lloyd rushed back early from lunch.

[ChiangMaiFun]

I can't see any scenario where rates rise in USA. The govt is far too much in debt, and higher interest payments will cause immediate bankruptcy. That is why gold can only go up, up and up until there is a collapse eventually. Is there something wrong with this analysis?

wrong is that you don't tell us the exact date of the gold collapse.

Well actually a collapse of gold implies a rise/repair of all currencies it is measured in. I would be more interested in where that is coming from & of course when would be nice too

rising real interest rates might not lead to a gold collapse but will weaken it considerably.

any clues as to 'when'? it surely cannot maintain this 1400+ for long? if a correction is coming when and how much? down to 1200 something?

[flying]

It is crucial for JPM to have the silver price lower. Expect them to do whatever is necessary.

Opening a vault is only one way.

Also interesting to note ....for those that hold SLV shares( I do not )...JPM is the vault custodian for SLV

Operating a gold and silver vault will now enable JPM to exploit the fact that most metals players who take delivery of their metal typically let it remain at Comex vaults for safekeeping. Again no big deal, because it is convenient and saves delivery fees, as long as the owners of the metal hold the vault operators accountable. In other words, if more players stand for delivery than JPM has available to actually physically deliver, JPM can just notify the owner that delivery has been made to its vault without ever having to make the actual delivery unless the owner asks for delivery into a private depository off the Comex. It has long been suspected that all of the current vault operators, especially HSBC and Scotia, engage in this "fractional" bullion banking scheme, but now that JPM has entered the vault storage game, there is no doubt in my mind that the Comex is running low on deliverable metal.

And by extension, it also serves to reason that SLV is running low on metal (JPM is the vault custodian for SLV - hmmm...), although I do not, like many, believe that SLV is empty. Again, a lot of commentators out there squawk about SLV being empty without ever having bona fide actual proof. I think from the standpoint of probability analysis, SLV is at least 1/3 covered (at any given time a large holder can exchange his SLV shares for delivery of metal - my bet is that SLV has enough to cover this present value of this possibility). I believe the Comex is less than 1/3 covered and this is why JPM had to rush into the vaulting business and jammed thru its approval by skirting the standard rules.

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

[gregb]

China finally does it.

After so many comments over the past few years about the Chinese government recommending that their citizens buy gold, and so many unsuccessful attempts to prove that they were actually pushing this policy, Forbes (or rather, Robert Lenzner, author of the StreetTalk column) has just made it official:

http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2011/03/26/chinas-central-bank-recommends-gold-for-value-preservation/?partner=yahootix

The People’s Bank of China(PBOC) recommended yesterday that 1 billion Chinese consider buying gold as a hedge against inflation and to preserve values in a world where currencies can fall.

Now things might get interesting. It appears the Chinese neither trust the dollar, nor their ability to wean their currency away from it.

[Naam]

every evening i watch -among others- two chinese news channels which broadcast business/economic news. nowhere was mentioned that the PBoC recommended the purchase of anything. an internet news search only turned up Mr Lenzner's claim which seems to be a "canard".

however, a recommendation to withdraw "fiat currency" from circulation like this would be quite logical as one of the measures needed to slow inflation.

[gregb]

every evening i watch -among others- two chinese news channels which broadcast business/economic news. nowhere was mentioned that the PBoC recommended the purchase of anything. an internet news search only turned up Mr Lenzner's claim which seems to be a "canard".

however, a recommendation to withdraw "fiat currency" from circulation like this would be quite logical as one of the measures needed to slow inflation.

I will concede Naam is correct in this case. I have been unable to find an original source for this rumor, including doing a Google translate on the Chinese version of PBoC website. The referenced report does not appear to be released to the general public (although previous years are available), and all we have is the interpretation of one writer for what it may or may not say.

I overreacted because it was Forbes, as opposed to some unnamed internet source. In retrospect, that was probably in haste.

However, in reference to Naam's other comment that gold would be a good way to withdraw currency from the market and stave off inflation, I will comment that if the Chinese had confidence in their currency remaining stable, they would be encouraging people to purchase bonds rather than gold. That is the traditional way banks mop up excess liquidity. If they are pushing gold instead, (still not confirmed) then that would be a bad sign regarding how much control they think that they will have over the direction of their currency.

[khunjake]

Gold is setting up for a another leg higher. Multiple tests this week right at the 1410 area and each time funds bought aggressively.

There has been a consolidation period going on for several months now and the corrective weakness the past 3 weeks is namely due to April Futures/Options expiration

Will be looking for a breakout over 1445-1450 key resistance the 1st week of April and a major move to $1650-1710 before July.

Taking long COMEX June Gold Contract at 1427.60 this morning with a close under 1410 as a stop.

[badge]

Theres no looming inflation threat in the developed world, where volitile measures like energy and food arent such a large component.

Golds wane in momentum over the last 6 months may be transitory(TM. USA), but it is nonetheless showing up on many oscillators.

China are the worlds largest Gold producer. They need Bids. Why not encourage the little people? Theyre not sophisticated enough to buy Bonds, or(if perchance they are), want them, in CNY. This then leaves Property, but the govt. has beaten them to it, and is now trying to cool the market. Maybe they should try stocks? Oh yes, they tried that already...

Edited April 3, 2011 by badge

[flying]

Golds wane in momentum over the last 6 months may be transitory(TM. USA), but it is nonetheless showing up on many oscillators.

While not stellar...9.5% in 6 months is ok with me

[churchill]

Golds wane in momentum over the last 6 months may be transitory(TM. USA), but it is nonetheless showing up on many oscillators.

While not stellar...9.5% in 6 months is ok with me

Does't look like a bubble !

Investor Alert - April 1, 2011

http://www.usfunds.com/investor-resources/investor-alert/?CFID=2933750&CFTOKEN=12900795

[churchill]

Bill Gross Investment Outlook - April

'Because if that company had a printing press much like the U.S. with an official “reserve currency” seal of approval affixed to every dollar bill, that lender/saver would have to know that the only way out of the dilemma, absent very large entitlement cuts, is to default in one (or a combination) of four ways:

1) outright via contractual abrogation – surely unthinkable, 2) surreptitiously via accelerating and unexpectedly higher inflation – likely but not significant in its impact, 3) deceptively via a declining dollar – currently taking place right in front of our noses, and 4) stealthily via policy rates and Treasury yields far below historical levels – paying savers less on their money and hoping they won’t complain.'

http://www.pimco.com/Documents/IO%20April%202011%20FINAL.pdf