Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[cloudhopper]

Gartman Sells 50% of Gold Holding After Decline, Says Further Drop Likely

'"There are rumors and there are rumors of rumors about IMF sales, or sales on the part of legacy central banks in Europe, or sales from the European Central Bank, the proceeds of which can be used to prop or bail out Greece and the others," Gartman wrote. "Although these are merely rumors, where this is rumored smoke there can be actual fire."

http://www.bloomberg...rop-likely.html

I saw the interview with him last night on cnbc [you can google it] and he said it dropped and he sold. He admitted to a mistake and said he is buying it all back and is long on gold. He said gold is just another currency to him. Me too.

the states and europe have nowhere to go but down, I may be an uneducated street kid but it seems fairly obvious to me

Why would anyone follow advice from this moron?

[edgarfriendly]

the same reason we (i) keep coming back here...

i think its commonly referred to as 'clutching at straws'

ef

e2a - are these 'morons' selling paper gold and then buying physical?

Edited June 7, 2011 by edgarfriendly

[RedFxTrade]

As I have stated on here on here a few weeks ago I have places some tentative long on the USD,,,mostly against the AUD, an average price of 1.0900 area...I have also went cautiously long the USDCHF...Still think Gold could spike up to the $1630-1650 area before consolidating into the summer.

Anyway, found this from zero hedge although it was on Bloomberg originally. Worlds biggest currency hedge fund now long USD...John Taylor Says He Is Now Long The USD As Of A Week Ago.

I m not so sure about QE being finished, infact I m sure its not, unlike Taylor...although Taylor has made some excellent calls on currencies over the years...I guess you have to to have $8 billion in a fund...However, the window of opportunity for the USD is between now and the next QE. There is a speech by Bernanke tonight which I will watch with interest.I have a feeling he will play it down for a while until things fall a bit more and the economy slumps more, so he will have a better backdrop to introduce it.

[churchill]

As I have stated on here on here a few weeks ago I have places some tentative long on the USD,,,mostly against the AUD, an average price of 1.0900 area...I have also went cautiously long the USDCHF...Still think Gold could spike up to the $1630-1650 area before consolidating into the summer.

Anyway, found this from zero hedge although it was on Bloomberg originally. Worlds biggest currency hedge fund now long USD...John Taylor Says He Is Now Long The USD As Of A Week Ago.

I m not so sure about QE being finished, infact I m sure its not, unlike Taylor...although Taylor has made some excellent calls on currencies over the years...I guess you have to to have $8 billion in a fund...However, the window of opportunity for the USD is between now and the next QE. There is a speech by Bernanke tonight which I will watch with interest.I have a feeling he will play it down for a while until things fall a bit more and the economy slumps more, so he will have a better backdrop to introduce it.

I saw a bit of the interview on Bloomberg - He seemed very vague and not really sure - The reason he is short the Euro is because he does not understand it ! Not a very good reason?

Re QE I think unemployment in the US will have to get a lot worse for more - I think that the figures will improve slowly so more QE not for now - However I think Bernanke will continue to keep a very loose policy and make that very clear at least until the US economy picks up / If it doesn't more QE for sure ...

I just saw this - China FX official says USD will continue to weaken against other major currencies. http://forex.fxdd.com/113369/forex-trading/china-fx-official-says-usd-will-continue-to-weaken-against-other-major-currencies?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Edited June 7, 2011 by churchill

[Naam]

I m not so sure about QE being finished

neither am i.

[RedFxTrade]

As I have stated on here on here a few weeks ago I have places some tentative long on the USD,,,mostly against the AUD, an average price of 1.0900 area...I have also went cautiously long the USDCHF...Still think Gold could spike up to the $1630-1650 area before consolidating into the summer.

Anyway, found this from zero hedge although it was on Bloomberg originally. Worlds biggest currency hedge fund now long USD...John Taylor Says He Is Now Long The USD As Of A Week Ago.

I m not so sure about QE being finished, infact I m sure its not, unlike Taylor...although Taylor has made some excellent calls on currencies over the years...I guess you have to to have $8 billion in a fund...However, the window of opportunity for the USD is between now and the next QE. There is a speech by Bernanke tonight which I will watch with interest.I have a feeling he will play it down for a while until things fall a bit more and the economy slumps more, so he will have a better backdrop to introduce it.

I saw a bit of the interview on Bloomberg - He seemed very vague and not really sure - The reason he is short the Euro is because he does not understand it ! Not a very good reason?

Re QE I think unemployment in the US will have to get a lot worse for more - I think that the figures will improve slowly so more QE not for now - However I think Bernanke will continue to keep a very loose policy and make that very clear until the us economy picks up /

I just saw this - China FX official says USD will continue to weaken against other major currencies. http://forex.fxdd.co..._medium=twitter

It could well do CH, don't post these things...your making me nervous about my trades now,lol.kidding obviously...I think what he was saying about the Euro is that it is unclear regarding the bailout...as there have been so many conflicting statements every hour of the day from so many sources...plus he said the bailout has not been explained, lengthening maturities on bond yields, is that going to happen or not...that uncertainty could weigh. I m not yet short the Euro, if it moves up its last high I may think about it. Too many retailers are short, and I don't want to be on the same side...as they are usually on the wrong side...however, they are reducing their shorts, and their are some divergences appearing with the large speculator increasing USD longs.The ECB have been more dovish with interest rates rises of late. I have thought for a while that interest rate expectations have been mispriced for a while now, and it is usually expectations of yield that drive currencies.

Lurking on some trading forums nearly everyone, retail traders are pricing in more AUD, RBA interest rates rises, and the market also. Yet last night, they stayed on hold, and the RBA came out with a dovish statement. The same in the UK, a few months ago, the markets thought it was a certainty that the Boe would raise in May/June,but now the BoE don't look like doing that. Over night interest rate swaps and futures have seen a large drop of in rate rise expectations, so it would appear the market is beginning to reprice those expectations.

Essentially, I m short the USD via gold/silver, but long USD against a couple of the sick sisters from a techincal and fundamental point of view. I have been looking at China alot in the last two weeks. Will do a post on it in financial crisis thread to get some feed back in the next couple of days.

Edited June 7, 2011 by RedFxTrade

[Naam]

I have been looking at China alot in the last two weeks.

i've been looking at China once in a while for the last three years. not interested in CNY inspite of all the encouragement from Gurus and the threats (revalue now or else!) from the Greatest Nation on Earth™. there were a dozen opportunities ("my" asset class) in the wake of Lehman 2008 out of which i used two. otherwise nothing but yawnnn...

[Naam]

Essentially, I m short the USD via gold/silver, but long USD against a couple of the sick sisters

using what instruments?

[RedFxTrade]

Essentially, I m short the USD via gold/silver, but long USD against a couple of the sick sisters

using what instruments?

When I say China, I m interested in the fallout and the ramifications it will have globally...

Well, I hold physical silver, and gold...and I m long USD in a currency trading account, however, I do create synthetic paper positions in silver and gold against other currencies sometimes in the forex account...I know trading paper gold and silver, my bad, don't tell anyone,haha.... :)but they are short term and efficient, and the win or loss is definitely real.

Edited June 7, 2011 by RedFxTrade

[Naam]

Well, I hold physical silver, and gold...

that's not what i call "short".

[Naam]

When I say China, I m interested in the fallout and the ramifications it will have globally...

i'm aware of that Red. but will you add your thoughts to the existing zillion publications on these potential if/then ramifications? can't you find something more productive and interesting to do... such as throwing small gravel stones at passing old ladies or cutting some herbs for your kitchen?

[RedFxTrade]

Well, I hold physical silver, and gold...

that's not what i call "short".

Its a de facto short. I mean its hard to say it has not been a short the USD...with 80-90% negative correlation. The ideal scenario for me is if the USD rallies with gold. Interestingly the AUDUSD short is down today, while silver is up, which does not happen so often. Interestingly Portugal yields on the 10 year broke to a new high today, and Spanish yields moving up also...Not much breathing space for the Euro...

[RedFxTrade]

When I say China, I m interested in the fallout and the ramifications it will have globally...

i'm aware of that Red. but will you add your thoughts to the existing zillion publications on these potential if/then ramifications? can't you find something more productive and interesting to do... such as throwing small gravel stones at passing old ladies or cutting some herbs for your kitchen?

:lol:Interesting you should say that, I have actually been growing a lot of herbs lately. You get interested in their well being...rocket, spinach, mint (although I use some gold shavings to make them gold mint leaves to serve for guests ), sage, coriander, basil, etc etc....the throwing stones part not yet...however, the when you look at the figures for China especially regarding percentage share of certain commodity world usage, and the percent of those used in construction, a few percent slow down in Chinese GDP, ie, $1 trillion USD or so, will impact the commodities market. Yes, alot of people have been talking about it...but that does not mean there is not a construction bubble...bubbles go on longer than many think, especially fixed asset and real estate bubbles as price discovery and relative illiquidity compared to other markets can hide the bubble for a while,but unless you think China is going to do what has never been done before and grow with stopping then calling for a slowdown in China and what goes with it is a no brainer.

Edited June 7, 2011 by RedFxTrade

[Naam]

when you look at the figures for China especially regarding percentage share of certain commodity world usage, and the percent of those used in construction, a few percent slow down in Chinese GDP, ie, $1 trillion USD or so, will impact the commodities market

a logical assumption. but i wouldn't dare to short any relevant commodities because too many unknown factors and known factors, the latter beyond my grasp, exist. moreover, i don't call $1tr slow down (>17% of total GDP) "a few percent". taking into consideration what the learned eggheads call "GDP" that slowdown would be in reality a huge big crash with negative global results affecting all assets/investments.

i also do not believe in the "big construction bubble" and "ghost cities" spread by the usual gloom&doom suspects. for the last 2½ decades the annual chinese demand was more or less stable at 20 million housing units per annum. i admit there might be a price bubble in metropolitan areas where they keep on building units which only a tiny percentage of the chinese population can afford. but one has to look at 0.5% growth of a population of 1.3 trillion (U.S. figure) respectively 1.3 billion (continental European figure).

[RedFxTrade]

when you look at the figures for China especially regarding percentage share of certain commodity world usage, and the percent of those used in construction, a few percent slow down in Chinese GDP, ie, $1 trillion USD or so, will impact the commodities market

a logical assumption. but i wouldn't dare to short any relevant commodities because too many unknown factors and known factors, the latter beyond my grasp, exist. moreover, i don't call $1tr slow down (>17% of total GDP) "a few percent". taking into consideration what the learned eggheads call "GDP" that slowdown would be in reality a huge big crash with negative global results affecting all assets/investments.

i also do not believe in the "big construction bubble" and "ghost cities" spread by the usual gloom&doom suspects. for the last 2½ decades the annual chinese demand was more or less stable at 20 million housing units per annum. i admit there might be a price bubble in metropolitan areas where they keep on building units which only a tiny percentage of the chinese population can afford. but one has to look at 0.5% growth of a population of 1.3 trillion (U.S. figure) respectively 1.3 billion (continental European figure).

When I say a slow down, I mean if GDP falls to say 2-4% from 9%, that would be a huge slowdown....

The thing is Naam since 1970 until today, urbanisation as a percent of the population has grown exponentially. In 1970 urban population as a percent of total was around 15%, as of 2010, urban population as a % of total population is around 47%,...so thats nearly half of the population. The growth in urban China correlates very well with construction growth in urban areas as one would expect, so if you take the 10 largest cities in China (where the majority have flocked to over the last decade or so) and look at price increases in these cities, we talking about 30-50% in a few years. By any metric that is huge.

If you check sources such as CB Richard Ellis, Jones Sang, Haver Analytics, certain distressed asset managers (who have been in China), the work of Chanos (who has not been in China, but as he said, he didn't work an Enron when he shorted it) and Standard Chartered who have been the best at monitoring Chinese real estate, they all corroborate and indicate a huge over supply.

Haver Analytics research for example shows that there nearly 3.8 billion sq metres of floor space constructed and under construction...That equates to 3 metres squared of floor space for every man, women, child, senior citizen in China. It is also notable that materials that you would expect demand to be high for during a construction boom, China accounts in many cases for nearly 50% share in world usage. 50% is a huge demand. To have such a cornering of certain raw materials in itself is a warning sign. Using up 50% of the worlds steel trade does not equal a few construction projects. To use that quantity of steel you you really need to be constructing a lot of the buildings. Vacancy rates in office space in tier one cities is 20-30%, however, Standard chartered research and on going figures shows that even in the 3rd and 4 th tier cities there is bulging supply.

I m not shorting any commodities...however, shorting the AUD against the CHF,JPY, USD, and possibly some Oz banks is a way to play it(as Oz also has their own real estate bubble and rely heavily on over seas funding), due to the fact that 30% of OZ exports are to China. i think the carry trade currencies will be hurt from this. Also some of the listed stocks on the nasdaq, Amex are Chinese shares. A few months ago I shorted Deer group, a company that sold house hold items in China, which worked out well.

Also shorting Japanese steel companies, and certain miners in Australia is another way to play it. There are also certain China related ETF's such as the TAO, which is a Chinese real estate ETF, where one could buy put options on these.

All in all,its a myth that urban areas in China are only small when they actually make up about 47% of total population. The correlation in urban growth, construction growth in those urban areas, Credit growth relative to GDP, and real estate prices in those urban areas is tight...it is no surprise that the urban areas are where the bubbles are, due to the growth in urban China over the last few decades and especially the last two decades.

Edited June 7, 2011 by RedFxTrade

[Naam]

When I say a slow down, I mean if GDP falls to say 2-4% from 9%, that would be a huge slowdown...

agreed, but i was "pecking" at

a few percent slow down in Chinese GDP, ie, $1 trillion USD or so

:jap:

[cloudhopper]

that slowdown would be in reality a huge big crash with negative global results affecting all assets/investments.

Well that's what's going to happen.

Fortunately you are not the only German physicist we can turn to for guidance when it all goes up in flames...

[midas]

that slowdown would be in reality a huge big crash with negative global results affecting all assets/investments.

Well that's what's going to happen.

Fortunately you are not the only German physicist we can turn to for guidance when it all goes up in flames...

I really miss this guy! sheer comedy brilliance and his range of voices and characters

was unsurpassable

[Naam]

that slowdown would be in reality a huge big crash with negative global results affecting all assets/investments.

Well that's what's going to happen. Fortunately you are not the only German physicist we can turn to for guidance when it all goes up in flames...

nobody can provide any guidance because the individual circumstances, available means and preparations already carried out differ too much from each other. anybody who thinks a wheel barrow filled with gold, combined with the possession of an M16 and ample ammunition, solves all of his/her problems will fail (assuming "all goes up in flames").

needless to say that i consider an apocalyptic scenario such as "all goes up in flames" an extremely remote possibility.

[churchill]

Soros is selling his gold — should you too?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/soros-is-selling-his-gold-should-you-too-2011-06-06

[badge]

Read a rather bullish Report on Chinese property yday from economist intelligence unit. Still cant see past all the vacant commercial property personally.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/54096095/EIU-Building-Rome-in-a-Day-1

[badge]

So with Gold at new highs Ive ran my ruler over it, and depending on what data I put into my model I get varying Long Term targets, the most poignant of which lie at 1355/65/90, so really anywhere between 1350-1400(!), and then 1575-1600. All rather vague then!

Theres some less potentially significant targets along the way at 1365, 1460 and 1515 too.

... And after the steep $115 decline from 1576 ...

Im not a fan of chart patterns like H+S and flags and so forth as they are too often obivous, and 'anything obvious is obviously wrong', however fr a bit of fun using some technical mumbo-jumbo, if Spot AU isnt repelled by the upper flag trendline around 1537, the next hurdle may be just prior to the recent high, so between 1565-75, plus hidden -ve divergence on the hourly graph RSI.

The price graph on Gold shows its bumping up against the channel trendline (horrible, arbitrary things IMO that are completely reliant on individual whim, data, timeframe etc) so presumably likely to have a look just under the recent high as per the more recent post of mine, or even upto 1600ish as per the original post?

[badge]

Forgot the picture

[churchill]

Traders Are Dumping Stocks and Buying Gold and Silver

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43300748

[Naam]

Traders Are Dumping Stocks and Buying Gold and Silver

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43300748

is that the reason why USD and Gold are slightly weak?

[churchill]

Traders Are Dumping Stocks and Buying Gold and Silver

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43300748

is that the reason why USD and Gold are slightly weak?

I think I misunderstood - I think They are selling Mining Stocks and buying Gold and silver

You do the HUI Pukey and you screw yourself around. That's what it's all about.

[churchill]

views from a couple of locals ......

Marc Faber: Why I am bullish on gold

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Marc-Faber-Why-I-am-bullish-on-gold-39728-3-1.html

jim Rogers: US Is Nearing Even Worse Financial Crisis

http://profitimes.com/free-articles/jim-rogers-us-is-nearing-even-worse-financial-crisis

[RedFxTrade]

views from a couple of locals ......

Marc Faber: Why I am bullish on gold

http://www.commodity...-39728-3-1.html

jim Rogers: US Is Nearing Even Worse Financial Crisis

http://profitimes.co...inancial-crisis

Great Rogers interview, cheers. I heard he was short JP Morgan a while back...it kind of confirms it when he said its the one that has not went down as much as the rest. The Tech call is hard to argue with also when you look at the rise of Twitter, Facebook, Linkin and Groupon against the valuations place on them...He has also stepped into buy the USD for a rally...its good to hear from my point of view....however, as soon as the fall comes, possibly before it, it will be time to bail the ship...talk of major investment banks selling the CHF on the wires this morning, which would explain the spike up in the USD in the last hour.

Anyone here looked at the water investment as related to China and India...? There could be some stocks in that area, that could be potentially explode.?

[churchill]

views from a couple of locals ......

Marc Faber: Why I am bullish on gold

http://www.commodity...-39728-3-1.html

jim Rogers: US Is Nearing Even Worse Financial Crisis

http://profitimes.co...inancial-crisis

Great Rogers interview, cheers. I heard he was short JP Morgan a while back...it kind of confirms it when he said its the one that has not went down as much as the rest. The Tech call is hard to argue with also when you look at the rise of Twitter, Facebook, Linkin and Groupon against the valuations place on them...He has also stepped into buy the USD for a rally...its good to hear from my point of view....however, as soon as the fall comes, possibly before it, it will be time to bail the ship...talk of major investment banks selling the CHF on the wires this morning, which would explain the spike up in the USD in the last hour.

Anyone here looked at the water investment as related to China and India...? There could be some stocks in that area, that could be potentially explode.?

Agree .... but also with the views on Nuclear changing at this time /and Opec /Mid East - Solar ? and as I mentioned before Silver a double play ?

Silver – The Key to Efficient Energy Collection and Transport

http://www.silverinstitute.org/pr08june2011.php

[Naam]

May 27, 2009 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy will enter “hyperinflation” approaching the levels in Zimbabwe because the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to raise interest rates, investor Marc Faber said.

June, 2011 "If the Fed gets it right and successfully re-inflates asset prices, then inflation will be in the double-digits, which would be bullish for gold," Faber pointed out.