Where Is Gold Going In This Market

Naam · May 7, 2012

So while the idea might sound great on an internet forum, there has not been a single person to date who has actually gotten away with using it. Be my guest however if you have an army of lawyers and think you can beat the government.

German media (Deutsche Welle) broadcasted some months ago several cases of German citizens who crossed the border with Swiss legal currency gold coins trying to circumvent the €10k notification limit. they all fought lost battles and had to learn the definition of value the hard way. some of them were treated with some leniency (carrying coins valued €15-20k) others faced confiscation of 40% of the total value. unfortunately i could not find out why different approaches were used by customs officials because all cases were obviously attempts to repatriate "black money".

gregb · May 7, 2012

Every country has it's own rules on such things naturally. My experience was only while ENTERING the US rather than leaving it. I have never been stopped an asked entering any other country so my personal experiences on how it's handled is limited to the US.

I would like to add that the difference between a circulated and un-circulated coin is not so easily determined. Just having the coins in a bag or your pocket in contact with each other is enough that they won't get an un-circulated grade. It would be different if they are "proof" coins which are 100% undeniably un-circulated. Of course, once you take a proof coin out of the plastic and handle it then now it is losing that status of being un-circulated.

Most of my gold/silver coins are circulated coins.

I would just like to point out to you that all it takes is one official not to accept your argument that the face value is OK. You will then be hauled into court where you can make your argument to a judge. I guarantee you that Cordner vs. United States will be thrown at you in that preceding, and that the definition of "circulated" as it applies in coin collecting will not be the definition of circulated that is used by the federal court system.

I think to most people would agree that a circulated coin is one that is used commonly in day to day commerce. Judges often have an annoying habit of interpreting the law based on current social norms, rather than the specific legal definition you would choose, especially when the organization that pays their salary is the plaintiff.

Naam · May 7, 2012

Every country has it's own rules on such things naturally. My experience was only while ENTERING the US rather than leaving it. I have never been stopped an asked entering any other country so my personal experiences on how it's handled is limited to the US.

I would like to add that the difference between a circulated and un-circulated coin is not so easily determined. Just having the coins in a bag or your pocket in contact with each other is enough that they won't get an un-circulated grade. It would be different if they are "proof" coins which are 100% undeniably un-circulated. Of course, once you take a proof coin out of the plastic and handle it then now it is losing that status of being un-circulated.

Most of my gold/silver coins are circulated coins.

come on Jayman! which one of your gold or silver coins were "circulated", id est used during the last several decades at face value to pay for goods or services? the hair splitting claim that coins which are not in "mint fresh condition" are "circulated" is as much science fiction as travelling to the U.S. with 199 coins each with a face value of $50 weighing 6 kilograms (~14 pounds) and then arguing on arrival with a US customs official citing Fort Knox book values.

Naam · May 7, 2012

let's leave science fiction and look at precious metal prices. socialist French president = no effect on Gold. uncertain Greek election results, perhaps reneging on latest restructuring and full default = no effect on Gold.

Gold down in line with USD stengthening. Silver disappointing and Platinum new low vs. Gold.

thoughts? conspiracy by cyclists?

flying · May 7, 2012

Silver disappointing and Platinum new low vs. Gold.

thoughts? conspiracy by cyclists?

The cyclist I read said in early April that silver was done & will be taking it in the teeth soon enough.(2nd week of June)

If I remember right he said Feb 2013 before it goes good again

He later in April reiterated Silver is done for at least a year & a half

Naam · May 7, 2012

The cyclist I read said in early April that silver was done & will be taking it in the teeth soon enough.(2nd week of June)

If I remember right he said Feb 2013 before it goes good again

He later in April reiterated Silver is done for at least a year & a half

cyclists are known for back pedalling

flying · May 7, 2012

The cyclist I read said in early April that silver was done & will be taking it in the teeth soon enough.(2nd week of June)

If I remember right he said Feb 2013 before it goes good again

He later in April reiterated Silver is done for at least a year & a half

cyclists are known for back pedalling

Not if they have a freewheel......

Now tricyclist, track bikes or fixies....yes back pedal possible

Edited May 7, 2012 by flying

Jayman · May 7, 2012

a dangerous trap for Germans, French, Italians and some others who want to repatriate their black money from Switzerland, travelling with the whole family and are not aware of the "creative" interpretation (€10,000 per person) of their relevant taxmen.

Not just Germany as the wife & I were told this once when exiting the USA

We each had xxxx amount & when the goon asked my wife she said each or the both of us combined?

He said combined

The lesson I learned that day is if we need to travel with more than combined 10k then to go through customs separately and not as a family unit.

Jayman · May 7, 2012

Every country has it's own rules on such things naturally. My experience was only while ENTERING the US rather than leaving it. I have never been stopped an asked entering any other country so my personal experiences on how it's handled is limited to the US.

I would like to add that the difference between a circulated and un-circulated coin is not so easily determined. Just having the coins in a bag or your pocket in contact with each other is enough that they won't get an un-circulated grade. It would be different if they are "proof" coins which are 100% undeniably un-circulated. Of course, once you take a proof coin out of the plastic and handle it then now it is losing that status of being un-circulated.

Most of my gold/silver coins are circulated coins.

come on Jayman! which one of your gold or silver coins were "circulated", id est used during the last several decades at face value to pay for goods or services? the hair splitting claim that coins which are not in "mint fresh condition" are "circulated" is as much science fiction as travelling to the U.S. with 199 coins each with a face value of $50 weighing 6 kilograms (~14 pounds) and then arguing on arrival with a US customs official citing Fort Knox book values.

I can say for 100% that my gold sovereigns and francs are circulated. Also, all of my junk silver coins are circulated (not that I intend to be hauling around 25lb bags of coins). But this circulation thing is for Canada and not for the US. Of course every country I'm sure has different regulations so there is no 1 blanket answer.

I also have a solid gold thai coin that has a face value marked on it of 2000thb. I would be interested to see how thai customs would value that coin. I only have 2 of them so I have no intention of walking through with a bag expecting to escape customs.

Naam · May 7, 2012

Commerzbank @nals today:

Precious metals: Although gold has been able to hold out against the downswing

experienced by commodities, a firmer US dollar – which rose significantly against the euro in

the wake of the elections in France and Greece at the weekend – is weighing on its price

this morning. In US dollar terms, the yellow metal has dipped below the $1,640 a troy ounce

mark. The gold price in euros has risen sharply this morning to hit a temporary 3-week high

of €1,265 a troy ounce – proof that the slump in price is related solely to the US currency.

Speculative financial investors moderately expanded their net long positions in gold to a 4-

week high of 110.1 thousand contracts in the week to 1 May. In the preceding months bets

on rising prices were slashed – another reason why the gold price is currently under

pressure and even fell for a time on Friday to a 10-day low of less than $1,630.

Jayman · May 7, 2012

And for the naysayers...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304363104577389443337247370.html

India Removes Excise Tax on Gold Jewelry

letitbe · May 7, 2012

ok obviously I can have built a very safe place but thats not the point. If it all goes tits up very badly its no good having it all close to hand since theirs possible problems of getting it out if need be from country your in when it might be quite possible made illegal to hold gold and other problems. Im not super rich and so only own the house I live in and hold around 200,000 us$ of gold and silver. So ive risked keeping around 40% of that close to hand in a very safe place but nothing is 100% safe either from accidental discovery. Ive even taken precaution of giving a different address to our main gold supplier since here you need to show ID and give an address to buy more than a few thousand us$ worth.

So I think it wise to keep 60% in other countries or ways. Ive been looking at gold money and others and even at some of largest banks facilities to hold gold but that seems best one can do. Im also probably going to get a non bank safe deposit box in another country such as Hong Kong to hold maybe 20-30% of it. Im sure others have considered this problem and it would be useful for most to hear their ideas and experiences.

all your arguments are very valid Letitbe! Flying and me discussed the problem of storing physical gold a long time ago in a joking as well as a rational way. but "one size fits all" does not exist, no matter whether the value is 100k or several millions. i agree with Flying that it is not a problem to store gold "at home", even big values, because of its extremely high value/volume ratio. but what if one is forced to move? spreading physical gold in other countries has its disadvantages too. if your gold is stored in country "a" and "b", both x-hours of flights away, how will you access it in case you need it fast in country "c" where you live?

thats not a problem were happy to keep say 30-40% close to hand here which is around 60-80,000 us$ worth at todays prices and thats more than enough for any immediate need. We dont trade gold we hold it as an insurance and one day IMO the whole financial mess will clear after again IMO a massive financial disaster which will bankrupt many people. So time will come when gold has had its day and not be needed anymore for insurance although that day could well be many years away. Then well sell. Even if gold crashes to half ( in real terms) the amount we are happy to hold close bye is plenty to provide probably 2 years of living although wed have to cut really down to basics only and might even have to take our 2 kids out of school which eats around 2 baht of gold worth a month. Having researched further I think well put 40% here 20% with gold money 20% in a non bank safe deposit box in Singapore and 20% with HSBC Hong Kong. Im fully aware that HSBC gold is London loco unallocated but unless HSBC go under (then thats a totally different game) its safe. Gold money seems to be real thing as Bullian vault does but of course you cant be 100% sure same as you cant be 100% sure gold you buy here at gold shops or dealers is real except ive often bought at one place and sold at another here and we normally buy smaller 5 and 10 baht or 100gm pamp gold here and ive taken precaution of checking weight and volume on jewellery scales which while not infallible is a pretty good test.

letitbe · May 7, 2012

But as Naam pointed out it can be a problem when changing countries & I am presently dealing
with just that.

imagine you live in Thailand and need the gold that you keep in a Hong Kong locker. even if there are no problems accessing your stash would you, when you arrive at Suvarnaswampy, say "Sawasdee khrap Khun Customsomchaipornthip... i bringed meself some bullion for me family in Nakhon Nowhere and cos it's the law i hereby declare the value being ha ran Baht, give or take roy pan Baht."

ive brought gold from Singapore no problem although admittedly only 500 gm in swiss 100 gm bars. Also in the event that you wanted to get your gold out youd want it not here and if it was fine here not a difficult matter ot just convert it in Hong Kong or wherever to that fiat stuff transfer that here and simply use that ot buy here. Ok youll loose a 1 or so % on currency exchange etc and risk price changing a lot during 1 day that would take but I cant imagine wanting to bring it here anyway. We keep assets in USA UK Hong Kong and SIngapore now and dont think well ever want to have more than 30% or so kept here. We can buy Thai shares via our broker in Singapore and only reason to maybe want more here would be to buy more property but weve spent last 2 years drastically reducing our property portfolio here to move assets abroad since I judged we had to many eggs here and political risk was/is quite high for things to go very badly here.

letitbe · May 7, 2012

I store my gold/silver pirate style as per my needs.

I have never ever not once in 20 years been asked to show ANY id when purchasing ANY amount of physical gold or silver from either US based or Thai based dealers. As for getting out the country with gold... I have never been stopped wearing it. You can wear quite a bit of gold on your body and customs does not even bat an eye.

Also, for those concerned about travelling with large amounts of gold let me mention that there are many forms of gold you can buy that are actually currency and marked as such. If you have a 1 oz gold eagle from the US mint it is marked as $50. The value is printed on the coin as $50. This is irregardless of the current price of spot gold. You could be carrying 199 oz of eagles and they would be valued as $9,950 which is under the amount required to be reported in the US (of course adjust for your situation). As far as the true value of 199 oz of eagles at today's rate you are looking at $331,136usd. Of course, gold bars are valued at spot so they are not as good for traveling.

Also, your needs will dictate what is the best way to handle things. If you spend your time in Thailand then having gold that is easily liquidated in Thailand is best (ie Thai gold). The Thais won't give you good value for 99.999% coins as they require money for processing to be used as 96.5 thai gold. Silver is almost more trouble than it's worth in Thailand so very little reason to have it here.

actually ive sold swiss gold here but margin is higher and bought it here as well. 1 kg pure Perth mint gold bars are often sold here and bought mostly for jewelry industry. Silver is fine again you can buy and sell to a few dealers but in Pellet form used again by jewellery industry and the margin is 1000 baht a kg which is a lot less than bullian dealers in west ever ash for. I know silver is meant to have VAT but TIT and gold shops that deal in pellets dont charge it, dont ask me how they get away with that, maybe theirs an exception for jewellery trade. You cant get bars or coins here. Gold Eagles can only really be sold to dealers and they seem to charge 6-8% over spot and only pay spot when buying back but USA its cheaper but compared with 1/2% margin here for gold bars its a lot. Swiss gold here has about a 1% margin. At this time their would be no problem taking gold out of here in any form but you would have to pay assay costs to sell thai gold elsewhere and ive done that as well just to check. You loose about 4% unless you use one of crooks. Taking it into UK is no problem you just declare it and theirs no tax or duty these days buy they can question how you bought it so we always keep copies of bank statements here and receipts from gold dealer (not shop a proper dealer who only sells bars). So at moment theirs no problem. What im concerned about is a really bad breakdown here which although unlikely could lead to massive civil unrest to say least or worse and then its quite possible severe problems would occur at exit points getting your gold here out. And although its very unlikely its not so long ago that Cambodia suffered such mayhem and other countries have also experienced it.

letitbe · May 7, 2012

So while the idea might sound great on an internet forum, there has not been a single person to date who has actually gotten away with using it. Be my guest however if you have an army of lawyers and think you can beat the government.

German media (Deutsche Welle) broadcasted some months ago several cases of German citizens who crossed the border with Swiss legal currency gold coins trying to circumvent the €10k notification limit. they all fought lost battles and had to learn the definition of value the hard way. some of them were treated with some leniency (carrying coins valued €15-20k) others faced confiscation of 40% of the total value. unfortunately i could not find out why different approaches were used by customs officials because all cases were obviously attempts to repatriate "black money".

ive phoned UK customs and they tell me I need to declare it but when I said but theirs no tax or duty on gold was told you still need to declare but if thats right and you can show you got it legally no problems. Ill probably take a few 100 gm swiss pamp gold bars over next trip and declare it just to test that. I have brought lots more through before as gold jewelry on me and no problems. I was just going ot say if asked id had it for years and claim ignorance and since it was only about 12 baht and gold was a lot cheaper then I doubt they would have made a fuss

muchogra · May 7, 2012

Why do people in their old age keep saying to buy gold (physically). If you are so damm sure, buy paper gold and carry it on on the forward contract. Anything stopping you? Sure! You arn't sure! Or, you don't have the conviction to commit the fund you have.

I ain't as old as some of you but I know i live in the present unlike some of you. I ain't betting 30 years from now when I may be dead, but some of you sure seem to be arguing for that. Good luck buddies! For the present, I will long gold today, but not the physical!

flying · May 7, 2012

Good luck buddies! For the present, I will long gold today, but not the physical!

Good luck to you too.....I dont see anyone here begrudging you holding paper IOU's

To each their own.....I do not think folks need to explain to you their premise for holding physical.

The reasons are many & varied.

But again to each their own. In this game of musical chairs you are free to pick a chair of your choice.

Naam · May 7, 2012

ive phoned UK customs and they tell me I need to declare it but when I said but theirs no tax or duty on gold was told you still need to declare but if thats right and you can show you got it legally no problems. Ill probably take a few 100 gm swiss pamp gold bars over next trip and declare it just to test that. I have brought lots more through before as gold jewelry on me and no problems. I was just going ot say if asked id had it for years and claim ignorance and since it was only about 12 baht and gold was a lot cheaper then I doubt they would have made a fuss

Letitbe, we were discussing coins and the different value of coins, i.e. face value and actual value and which value to declare when crossing a border. there is no disagreement as far as bullion is concerned.

Edited May 7, 2012 by Naam

Naam · May 8, 2012

And for the naysayers...

http://online.wsj.co...3337247370.html

India Removes Excise Tax on Gold Jewelry

for those who need reading glasses...

-Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee removed, as expected, the excise tax on sales of all gold jewelry.
-In the federal budget on March 16, Mr. Mukherjee imposed a 0.3% excise tax on nonbranded gold jewelry. Branded-jewelry sales by companies already had a 1% tax. Both levies have been scrapped, Mr. Mukherjee said in Parliament...

-However, he left unchanged a proposal to double the import tax on gold to 4% from 2%.

today dear children we are trying to solve a difficult arithmetic question: "if taxes of 0.3% and 1% on any commodity are removed but another tax of 2% is added, will that commodity get cheaper or more expensive?"

Hank, you think the commodity will get cheaper? sorry Hank! please try again.

midas · May 8, 2012

Russia backs return to Gold Standard to solve financial crisis

Russia has become the first major country to call for a partial restoration of the Gold Standard to uphold discipline in the world financial system.

" The world's fiat paper currencies have lacked any external anchor ever since. It is widely argued that the financial excesses and extreme debt leverage of the last quarter century would have been impossible - or less likely - under the discipline of gold."

http://www.telegraph...ial-crisis.html

Edited May 8, 2012 by midas

binjalin · May 8, 2012

And so with Greece changing hands and France leaning left etc. WHERE is Gold going this year? And Silver for that matter??? Can we expect a rise in either? Or, indeed, a drop?

Forget long term 3/5 years what about this year and maybe next?

Naam · May 8, 2012

Russia backs return to Gold Standard to solve financial crisis

Russia has become the first major country to call for a partial restoration of the Gold Standard to uphold discipline in the world financial system.

" The world's fiat paper currencies have lacked any external anchor ever since. It is widely argued that the financial excesses and extreme debt leverage of the last quarter century would have been impossible - or less likely - under the discipline of gold."

http://www.telegraph...ial-crisis.html

the part "the world's fiat paper currencies lacked..." was clearly added by the Telegraph's journalist. even though i agree with that statement it's presentation, insinuating it is a part of "Russia backs...", is wrong.

Naam · May 8, 2012

And so with Greece changing hands and France leaning left etc. WHERE is Gold going this year? And Silver for that matter??? Can we expect a rise in either? Or, indeed, a drop?

Forget long term 3/5 years what about this year and maybe next?

binjalin · May 8, 2012

And so with Greece changing hands and France leaning left etc. WHERE is Gold going this year? And Silver for that matter??? Can we expect a rise in either? Or, indeed, a drop?

Forget long term 3/5 years what about this year and maybe next?

Are we really saying NO ONE has a clue? I detect the vast majority on here think the world is going down the toilet - is that a fair summary? If so we must, collectively, have an idea? Surely we are not really in the hands of whim?

midas · May 8, 2012

And so with Greece changing hands and France leaning left etc. WHERE is Gold going this year? And Silver for that matter??? Can we expect a rise in either? Or, indeed, a drop?

Forget long term 3/5 years what about this year and maybe next?

Are we really saying NO ONE has a clue? I detect the vast majority on here think the world is going down the toilet - is that a fair summary? If so we must, collectively, have an idea? Surely we are not really in the hands of whim?

look around you..... name one country with a strong and safe currency based on strong economic fundamentals?

the whole the financial system is a Ponzi

binjalin · May 8, 2012

And so with Greece changing hands and France leaning left etc. WHERE is Gold going this year? And Silver for that matter??? Can we expect a rise in either? Or, indeed, a drop?

Forget long term 3/5 years what about this year and maybe next?

Are we really saying NO ONE has a clue? I detect the vast majority on here think the world is going down the toilet - is that a fair summary? If so we must, collectively, have an idea? Surely we are not really in the hands of whim?

look around you..... name one country with a strong and safe currency based on strong economic fundamentals?

the whole the financial system is a Ponzi

Exactly so where is gold and silver going this year and next?

chiang mai · May 8, 2012

You sound like you're looking for investment advice, here's my ten cents:

For every person who says it's going to soar there's an equal number who think it's going to sink.

binjalin · May 8, 2012

You sound like you're looking for investment advice, here's my ten cents:

For every person who says it's going to soar there's an equal number who think it's going to sink.

Well I was just interested to hear what all the posters on here think - without a critique on the world economy and without 'noise' just what do people 'think'. I deduce that the vast majority believe the worlds economy will further implode and some say it's the end almost. So where is Gold going (and silver too) after 100s of pages of posts one might think someone has an idea? To believe it is all 'luck' and there is NO way of analyzing where PMs are likely to go is a very depressing thought.

midas · May 8, 2012

Exactly so where is gold and silver going this year and next?

I believe if you look at the video in post #11507 in this other thread it has some interesting views about silver.

chiang mai · May 8, 2012

I'm not trying to be smart but there are only three possibilities aren't there, rise, fall or flat, I know there are loads of people in the past few hundred pages that picked one of the three and made their positions known, the trick for you and I is to figure out which one we think is right and that's not easy because it's almost a shell game!

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