Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[teletiger]

Reminds me of a little parable. When offered 2 choices.....you actually have 3. A, B, or neither.

Regards.

[flying]

Whether Gold or the Euro is the winner there I can't say, but I have a hunch.

tell us... or else!

Like every other market it all depends on what the $USD does. My theory based on a methodology I don't fully understand (Hurst Cycles) has the $USD bottoming near late September. The fact that the Euro and Gold look like they want to move sooner aggravates me and my perhaps bogus theory. 5 weeks is a long time if $ selling gets started in earnest, at this time I'm still expecting last years low to hold but honestly that's just wishful thinking.

If all that sounds confusing it's because it is confusing and I don't have much confidence in any of it. That's why I haven't presented a view before now. Maybe things will look clearer in a few weeks, but I'm not too confidant of that either.

But you still didn't say if your hunch was Euro or Gold

Other cyclist say volatility in September could show swings of $50 up or down per day no problem.

On a side note I see Dylan in your signature. Did you see he got picked up for vagrancy in NJ the other day? The young lady cop didn't know who he was.

Show me your papers old man Kind of fits in with your sig

[sokal]

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14276.htm

For the tech types

I'm not saying the author is drawing the wrong conclusion but I would make a couple of points. He starts with a technical premise and justifies it with a fundamental argument. That is inconsistant methodology in my view and smells of heavy bias. Again, I'm not saying he may not be correct in the end.

The other thing that strikes me is that $GOLD:$XEU chart. It's a parabolic breakout chart. It may have another leg up in its parabolic move but rest assured it will retrace 100% to 2004 levels at some point. Whether Gold or the Euro is the winner there I can't say, but I have a hunch.

tell us... or else!

Like every other market it all depends on what the $USD does. My theory based on a methodology I don't fully understand (Hurst Cycles) has the $USD bottoming near late September. The fact that the Euro and Gold look like they want to move sooner aggravates me and my perhaps bogus theory. 5 weeks is a long time if $ selling gets started in earnest, at this time I'm still execting last years low to hold but honestly that's just wishful thinking.

If all that sounds confusing it's because it is confusing and I don't have much confidence in any of it. That's why I haven't presented a view before now. Maybe things will look clearer in a few weeks, but I'm not too confidant of that either.

Gold has not gone into a phase where it is an overvalued bubble market, it has only just gone up as more dollars and credit have been printed up over the last 10 years. Gold is not overvalued at these prices.

[Abrak]

Gold has not gone into a phase where it is an overvalued bubble market, it has only just gone up as more dollars and credit have been printed up over the last 10 years. Gold is not overvalued at these prices.

Sokal, I accept that the very concept of debating the fundamental value of gold is a fairly trivial exercise. However the simple statement that gold is not overvalued because there are more dollars I am sure you can see if taken literally is fallacious. Afterall if I did own dollars as they generate interest I will have more year 1 than year 0 while I would still have the same amount of gold - so the price of gold needs to go up (and has) to justify holding it.

Now I realize that is not what you were really talking about and it was much more to do with 'excess' monetary growth.

So look if you say M3 has doubled over the last 8 years and the price of gold has tripled there has been a major revaluation. Now of course if you choose to pick the bottom price of anything you can show something like that. I just wonder if you have any genuine reason why you really think gold is not overvalued. I do realize that this amounts to discussing the shape a girls ass.

[badge]

Well lannarebirth, a couple of sayings sprang to mind:

"markets tend to go where you think they'll go, but not when you think they'll go"

and

"markets are slower than you think"

[Naam]

Gold has not gone into a phase where it is an overvalued bubble market, it has only just gone up as more dollars and credit have been printed up over the last 10 years. Gold is not overvalued at these prices.

Sokal, I accept that the very concept of debating the fundamental value of gold is a fairly trivial exercise. However the simple statement that gold is not overvalued because there are more dollars I am sure you can see if taken literally is fallacious. Afterall if I did own dollars as they generate interest I will have more year 1 than year 0 while I would still have the same amount of gold - so the price of gold needs to go up (and has) to justify holding it.

Now I realize that is not what you were really talking about and it was much more to do with 'excess' monetary growth.

So look if you say M3 has doubled over the last 8 years and the price of gold has tripled there has been a major revaluation. Now of course if you choose to pick the bottom price of anything you can show something like that. I just wonder if you have any genuine reason why you really think gold is not overvalued. I do realize that this amounts to discussing the shape a girls ass.

which -i think- should be much more interesting

[lannarebirth]

Well lannarebirth, a couple of sayings sprang to mind:

"markets tend to go where you think they'll go, but not when you think they'll go"

and

"markets are slower than you think"

True, but in ths case a little faster than I had hoped. We'll see.

My market guru newsletter plans remain on hold for now.

Edited August 25, 2009 by lannarebirth

[churchill]

They would like to supress prices - perhaps they can .

CFTC to investigate 'artificial inflation' of ETFs 25th August 2009

A leading US regulatory body is set to probe the role of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the suspected artificial inflation of oil, natural gas and gold prices, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday (22nd August).

ETFs have become increasingly popular with small investors since their introduction at the advent of the commodity prices boom in 2003 because of their ability to provide direct exposure to commodity futures.

Figures from the National Stock Exchange suggest that they held a huge $59.3 billion in assets as of July 2009, with about $22.1 billion being ploughed into them already this year.

However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is now set to explore activity in ETFs, which effectively involve making one-way bets, generally on particular prices increasing.

Although critics are suggesting that the move will eventually eliminate small investors and make the funds the preserve of the top financial companies, the CFTC has rejected those claims.

"The commission has never said 'You aren't tall enough to ride'," said Commissioner Bart Chilton in an email quoted by the news provider.

"I don't want to limit liquidity, but above all else, I want to ensure that prices for consumers are fair and that there is no manipulation - intentional or otherwise."

Nevertheless, placing restrictions on the size of ETFs will see investors' expenses increased, largely because this will require legal and operational costs to be split between fewer shares.

The news comes as ETF Securities, one of the leading operators of the funds, revealed that it launched five new ETFs on its Tokyo Stock Exchange debut on Monday, Reuters reports.

With its Physical Gold, Physical Silver, Physical Platinum, Physical Palladium and Physical PM Basket ETFs, the London-based firm is aiming to manage $1 billion in assets in Japan by the end of next year.

Hector McNeil, the company's Global Head of Sales and Marketing, told the news provider: "Certainly, we would want to become the leading provider of ETFs in the Asian region. That's our ultimate aim and objective.

"The great thing about Asia is that nobody has really established dominance and footprint … so we feel it's actually the place where the opportunity is."

Meanwhile, ETF Securities also confirmed on Monday that the amount of metal it holds to back its palladium product reached a record high at the end of last week, according to Reuters.

The ETFS Physical Palladium security hit a figure of 376,883 oz on 20th August after increasing by more than 100 oz from the previous day.

http://www.platinum.matthey.com/media_room...s_19328669.html

[churchill]

This is my view at this time - Without a major $ problem I cannot see Gold heading over $1000 in the short term

http://seekingalpha.com/article/158106-key...d-price-drivers

We remain “extremely optimistic” on the gold-price outlook — but, unlike many other bullish analysts, we believe the metal’s ascent will take several years to reach its next long-term cyclical peak.

[lannarebirth]

They would like to supress prices - perhaps they can .

CFTC to investigate 'artificial inflation' of ETFs 25th August 2009

A leading US regulatory body is set to probe the role of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the suspected artificial inflation of oil, natural gas and gold prices, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday (22nd August).

ETFs have become increasingly popular with small investors since their introduction at the advent of the commodity prices boom in 2003 because of their ability to provide direct exposure to commodity futures.

Figures from the National Stock Exchange suggest that they held a huge $59.3 billion in assets as of July 2009, with about $22.1 billion being ploughed into them already this year.

However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is now set to explore activity in ETFs, which effectively involve making one-way bets, generally on particular prices increasing.

Although critics are suggesting that the move will eventually eliminate small investors and make the funds the preserve of the top financial companies, the CFTC has rejected those claims.

"The commission has never said 'You aren't tall enough to ride'," said Commissioner Bart Chilton in an email quoted by the news provider.

"I don't want to limit liquidity, but above all else, I want to ensure that prices for consumers are fair and that there is no manipulation - intentional or otherwise."

Nevertheless, placing restrictions on the size of ETFs will see investors' expenses increased, largely because this will require legal and operational costs to be split between fewer shares.

The news comes as ETF Securities, one of the leading operators of the funds, revealed that it launched five new ETFs on its Tokyo Stock Exchange debut on Monday, Reuters reports.

With its Physical Gold, Physical Silver, Physical Platinum, Physical Palladium and Physical PM Basket ETFs, the London-based firm is aiming to manage $1 billion in assets in Japan by the end of next year.

Hector McNeil, the company's Global Head of Sales and Marketing, told the news provider: "Certainly, we would want to become the leading provider of ETFs in the Asian region. That's our ultimate aim and objective.

"The great thing about Asia is that nobody has really established dominance and footprint … so we feel it's actually the place where the opportunity is."

Meanwhile, ETF Securities also confirmed on Monday that the amount of metal it holds to back its palladium product reached a record high at the end of last week, according to Reuters.

The ETFS Physical Palladium security hit a figure of 376,883 oz on 20th August after increasing by more than 100 oz from the previous day.

http://www.platinum.matthey.com/media_room...s_19328669.html

Ther great thing about derivatives is, from a prop. desk and hedge fund POV is, you can get short/long the thing you're about to buy/dump without having the market move against you very much. The other good thing is you can move small markets for very little investment.

[churchill]

They would like to supress prices - perhaps they can .

CFTC to investigate 'artificial inflation' of ETFs 25th August 2009

A leading US regulatory body is set to probe the role of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the suspected artificial inflation of oil, natural gas and gold prices, the Wall Street Journal reported on Saturday (22nd August).

ETFs have become increasingly popular with small investors since their introduction at the advent of the commodity prices boom in 2003 because of their ability to provide direct exposure to commodity futures.

Figures from the National Stock Exchange suggest that they held a huge $59.3 billion in assets as of July 2009, with about $22.1 billion being ploughed into them already this year.

However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is now set to explore activity in ETFs, which effectively involve making one-way bets, generally on particular prices increasing.

Although critics are suggesting that the move will eventually eliminate small investors and make the funds the preserve of the top financial companies, the CFTC has rejected those claims.

"The commission has never said 'You aren't tall enough to ride'," said Commissioner Bart Chilton in an email quoted by the news provider.

"I don't want to limit liquidity, but above all else, I want to ensure that prices for consumers are fair and that there is no manipulation - intentional or otherwise."

Nevertheless, placing restrictions on the size of ETFs will see investors' expenses increased, largely because this will require legal and operational costs to be split between fewer shares.

The news comes as ETF Securities, one of the leading operators of the funds, revealed that it launched five new ETFs on its Tokyo Stock Exchange debut on Monday, Reuters reports.

With its Physical Gold, Physical Silver, Physical Platinum, Physical Palladium and Physical PM Basket ETFs, the London-based firm is aiming to manage $1 billion in assets in Japan by the end of next year.

Hector McNeil, the company's Global Head of Sales and Marketing, told the news provider: "Certainly, we would want to become the leading provider of ETFs in the Asian region. That's our ultimate aim and objective.

"The great thing about Asia is that nobody has really established dominance and footprint … so we feel it's actually the place where the opportunity is."

Meanwhile, ETF Securities also confirmed on Monday that the amount of metal it holds to back its palladium product reached a record high at the end of last week, according to Reuters.

The ETFS Physical Palladium security hit a figure of 376,883 oz on 20th August after increasing by more than 100 oz from the previous day.

http://www.platinum.matthey.com/media_room...s_19328669.html

Ther great thing about derivatives is, from a prop. desk and hedge fund POV is, you can get short/long the thing you're about to buy/dump without having the market move against you very much. The other good thing is you can move small markets for very little investment.

So not good or fair for the every day investor - I think most people are sick of being taken for a ride by so called hedge fund managers or investment gurus who are only interested in lining their own pockets and f..k the people who are paying their wages . Lets make a level playing field for all .

[teletiger]

Well, here's a start.

Federal Reserve Loses Bloomberg FOIA Lawsuit, Sensitive Disclosures Forthcoming

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/federal-r...res-forthcoming

Regulatory Crackdown On Goldman Begins

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/regulator...-goldman-begins

But if you think this means anything more than a slap on the wrist....small fine....you're dreaming.

As one poster put it..” Blankfein hits the floor at 9.28 am....” between 9.30 and 10.00 am today we're working for the SEC.” “Have a good day.""

Maybe millions of Dollars should be transcribed as "years in jail". Not just a business expense then......right?

Regards.

[flying]

This is my view at this time - Without a major $ problem I cannot see Gold heading over $1000 in the short term

http://seekingalpha.com/article/158106-key...d-price-drivers

We remain "extremely optimistic" on the gold-price outlook — but, unlike many other bullish analysts, we believe the metal's ascent will take several years to reach its next long-term cyclical peak.

Ultimately, gold will most likely climb into the US$2000 to $3000 range – but it could go even higher given the right confluence of economic and political developments . . . or if a late cycle mania produces a final bubble before the market shifts into reverse.

I agree that the Long Term Peak may take years & may exceed their 2-3k range...who knows. But, I also think we will see gold again over 1k in the very short term. September or sooner

[Naam]

I agree that the Long Term Peak may take years & may exceed their 2-3k range...who knows. But, I also think we will see gold again over 1k in the very short term. September or sooner

all what it takes is a further weakening of the dollar. but the outlook that KhunJean can buy bakeries for a single Krüger Rand is still quite bleak

[sokal]

Gold has not gone into a phase where it is an overvalued bubble market, it has only just gone up as more dollars and credit have been printed up over the last 10 years. Gold is not overvalued at these prices.

Sokal, I accept that the very concept of debating the fundamental value of gold is a fairly trivial exercise. However the simple statement that gold is not overvalued because there are more dollars I am sure you can see if taken literally is fallacious. Afterall if I did own dollars as they generate interest I will have more year 1 than year 0 while I would still have the same amount of gold - so the price of gold needs to go up (and has) to justify holding it.

Now I realize that is not what you were really talking about and it was much more to do with 'excess' monetary growth.

So look if you say M3 has doubled over the last 8 years and the price of gold has tripled there has been a major revaluation. Now of course if you choose to pick the bottom price of anything you can show something like that. I just wonder if you have any genuine reason why you really think gold is not overvalued. I do realize that this amounts to discussing the shape a girls ass.

Tech stocks and the Nasdaq where over valued in 2000, houses and financials where over valued in 2007.

How could gold be over valued if it is clearly not showing ANY similarities with previous over valued markets ?

[Naam]

my view is that there are neither over- nor undervalued assets. the real value of anything is determined by the price somebody is willing to pay for it. as simple as that.

[sokal]

Central banks are now net buyers of gold for the first time since 1987. Full article here

[badge]

China doesnt need to buy Gold as its the largest producer on the planet. As with all business and enterprise in China, the govt. holds ample sway.

[Abrak]

Tech stocks and the Nasdaq where over valued in 2000, houses and financials where over valued in 2007.

How could gold be over valued if it is clearly not showing ANY similarities with previous over valued markets ?

Absolutely. Gold could double and look good value versus tech stocks in 2000 and probably rise 30% against property in the US versus valuations at the top of the market. It has also showed none of the characteristics that you should expect from the extrapolation of the top of bull market.

Obviously I am interested if you compare valuation parameters to internet stocks in 2000 - I guess it may or may not happen but at that point we will definitely agree that it is overvalued.

(No criticism intended - I sold all my tech stocks at, at least half peak value.)

[flying]

China doesnt need to buy Gold as its the largest producer on the planet. As with all business and enterprise in China, the govt. holds ample sway.

That may be true that they are ramping up their output by 30% a year,,,But, They are also big buyers. Who can blame them for turning paper that is sure to devalue into tangible money

http://forexblog.oanda.com/20090430/does-c...n-forex-policy/

http://thebullishbear.blogspot.com/2009/04...uying-gold.html

http://livingoffdividends.com/2009/05/06/c...old-on-the-sly/

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/China-...-20697-3-1.html

[Abrak]

China doesnt need to buy Gold as its the largest producer on the planet. As with all business and enterprise in China, the govt. holds ample sway.

That may be true that they are ramping up their output by 30% a year,,,But, They are also big buyers. Who can blame them for turning paper that is sure to devalue into tangible money

http://forexblog.oanda.com/20090430/does-c...n-forex-policy/

http://thebullishbear.blogspot.com/2009/04...uying-gold.html

http://livingoffdividends.com/2009/05/06/c...old-on-the-sly/

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/China-...-20697-3-1.html

Still who would invest on the judgment of someone who had put US$1-2trn in USTs?

(PS I am sure it didnt turn out too bad or whatever (and as your new advisers they may wish you to buy further amounts) however, I just wish to mention that I do not think that following the Chinese authorities is a particularly good way to accumulate wealth imho).

I would also like to point out that at no point have they indicated that they are acting as investment advisers to anyone or that their asset allocation should in anyways be seen as a way of maximizing profits on behalf of the individual investor. I have no prior knowledge of the Chinese authorities intentions but I suspect that if their investment philosophy was intended as an indicator as to how investors could benefit from investment gains, they would be grossly offended.

[flying]

Still who would invest on the judgment of someone who had put US$1-2trn in USTs?

I would also like to point out that at no point have they indicated that they are acting as investment advisers to anyone or that their asset allocation should in anyways be seen as a way of maximizing profits on behalf of the individual investor. I have no prior knowledge of the Chinese authorities intentions but I suspect that if their investment philosophy was intended as an indicator as to how investors could benefit from investment gains, they would be grossly offended.

While I agree with you that they may be fools for taking UST's I am sure there was a you scratch my back & I scratch yours reason...obviously.

But that was not the reason I posted. I only posted that because I saw a post that said...

China doesnt need to buy Gold as its the largest producer on the planet.

Also I agree none...Not China or even myself ever suggested gold as an investment. Not sure where you saw that?

[Abrak]

Also I agree none...Not China or even myself ever suggested gold as an investment. Not sure where you saw that?

Actually you are right - at no point as China implied that investing in gold - would be an above average investment (and I hope I didnt indicate that). However, if you go through the thread there are various people who have indicated that as China is buying gold then it would be a sensible thing yourself to buy gold (to follow their investment strategy). I admit that China has made no so such claims and its support of USTs should not in anyway be regarded as a strategy to support advice. China, (as I see it) bought those USTs without trying to influence anyone anywhere and obviously (with no prior knowledge) solely for its own benefit, rather than maximizing its return on investment - I do not believe there are other indications otherwise.

I would not like you to take their very small purchases of gold as an indication that the Chinese Government deliberately encouraged people to buy it through their purchases. If in anyway I have implied that the Chinese Government, through their purchases have actually implied it was a good investment I apologize.

However, I would guess you could find 5-10 posts along these lines = the Chinese are buying so everyone should!!

I was (as you pointed out) indicating that these purchases were made for their own benefit (or possibly as an investment of last resort) and following them (by doing the same) might prove distressing.

[sokal]

Also I agree none...Not China or even myself ever suggested gold as an investment. Not sure where you saw that?

Actually you are right - at no point as China implied that investing in gold - would be an above average investment (and I hope I didnt indicate that). However, if you go through the thread there are various people who have indicated that as China is buying gold then it would be a sensible thing yourself to buy gold (to follow their investment strategy). I admit that China has made no so such claims and its support of USTs should not in anyway be regarded as a strategy to support advice. China, (as I see it) bought those USTs without trying to influence anyone anywhere and obviously (with no prior knowledge) solely for its own benefit, rather than maximizing its return on investment - I do not believe there are other indications otherwise.

I would not like you to take their very small purchases of gold as an indication that the Chinese Government deliberately encouraged people to buy it through their purchases. If in anyway I have implied that the Chinese Government, through their purchases have actually implied it was a good investment I apologize.

However, I would guess you could find 5-10 posts along these lines = the Chinese are buying so everyone should!!

I was (as you pointed out) indicating that these purchases were made for their own benefit (or possibly as an investment of last resort) and following them (by doing the same) might prove distressing.

The Chinese have been extreamly quiet about their gold purchases for a reason. Why would they want everyone to pile into gold which would devalue the sh*t out of their dollar holdings ?

[flying]

However, I would guess you could find 5-10 posts along these lines = the Chinese are buying so everyone should!!

I was (as you pointed out) indicating that these purchases were made for their own benefit (or possibly as an investment of last resort) and following them (by doing the same) might prove distressing.

I think this is where we look at it differently & that is fine of course.

You think the Chinese are buying as investment...( I think?)

But I think the Chinese are buying to dump dollars into what is perceived as

true money. In that respect it may or may not be a good idea for others to take note.

I think the word investment may be a misnomer when talking about gold.

At least from my perspective.

[Naam]

However, I would guess you could find 5-10 posts along these lines = the Chinese are buying so everyone should!!

I was (as you pointed out) indicating that these purchases were made for their own benefit (or possibly as an investment of last resort) and following them (by doing the same) might prove distressing.

I think this is where we look at it differently & that is fine of course.

You think the Chinese are buying as investment...( I think?)

But I think the Chinese are buying to dump dollars into what is perceived as

true money. In that respect it may or may not be a good idea for others to take note.

I think the word investment may be a misnomer when talking about gold. At least from my perspective.

Flying, you are one of the very few semi-goldbugs who's moderate and subtle pumping i find acceptable. most others i consider to be dreamers or outright ignorants.

[flying]

Flying, you are one of the very few semi-goldbugs who's moderate and subtle pumping i find acceptable. most others i consider to be dreamers or outright ignorants.

Why thank you Dr. Naam

Now if I could just convince Vegas Vic that I am not in league with the dark side

[Naam]

Flying, you are one of the very few semi-goldbugs who's moderate and subtle pumping i find acceptable. most others i consider to be dreamers or outright ignorants.

Why thank you Dr. Naam

Now if I could just convince Vegas Vic that I am not in league with the dark side

are you trying to tell us you are not a member of the ill-lunatics or the picturemountains who are striving to dominate this world? if yes, i will ask Alex Sherlock and Lah Holmes to investigate. there's no way you can hide your secrets from them!

[badge]

China doesnt need to buy Gold as its the largest producer on the planet.

Also I agree none...Not China or even myself ever suggested gold as an investment. Not sure where you saw that?

It may come as a shock that you weren't involved, but I wasn't posting that in response to you Sir.

It was in response to the commentator on the previous link posted by 'sokal'.

[flying]

China doesnt need to buy Gold as its the largest producer on the planet.

Also I agree none...Not China or even myself ever suggested gold as an investment. Not sure where you saw that?

It may come as a shock that you weren't involved, but I wasn't posting that in response to you Sir.

It was in response to the commentator on the previous link posted by 'sokal'.

But but but ...when I posted that I was responding to Abrak

In any case Kor Tort Krup

Edited August 27, 2009 by flying