Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[ace]

please be kind enough and tell me where exactly i can find that "massive, global currency debasement" you are referring to.

sent from my QRWX986 using hyperventilated secret subspace frequency

Graphs above Δ

[Naam]

please be kind enough and tell me where exactly i can find that "massive, global currency debasement" you are referring to.

sent from my QRWX986 using hyperventilated secret subspace frequency

Graphs above Δ

the graphs above may bullsh dupe ignorants who believe, or are made to believe, that investors are keeping their "continously debasing currencies" under their mattresses without letting them work hard 24 hours daily, 7 days a week raking in [not so] debasing profits.

[yoshiwara]

Heres the thing, Gold is a store of wealth, insurance if you like its not about investing and making money. Its simple to see

....and gold was a particularly rubbish 'store of wealth' between 1980 and 2005.

So it wasn't. And therefore the argument that it is/was at all times is thoroughly debased.

Carry on.

[cheeryble]

Thankyou for the effort English Oak

Rather than trying to make a coherently comprehensive response late in an afternoon may I comment at random?

Heres the thing, Gold is a store of wealth, insurance if you like its not about investing and making money. Its simple to see

You know......if that chart above went backa few more years it would not look like neatly corresponding lines......it would look like a scenic railway.

As monetary printing continues you can see roughly where things are.

.....again......that chart above is a terrible ad for anything.

The bits of line which are consonant look arbitrarily chosen.....did the 40% line just happen to correspond with the price of gold in 1920, otherwise why was 40% chosen?

The extraordinary volatility of the gold price post 1970 is a perfect reason to avoid it as a reference for anything, and needless to say if you bought in 1980 you'd still be desperately sucking wind if you hadn't already defenestrated yourself

.

What's Heres your bond rates and the US printing debt rate

Heres the money supply increase from 2007 - 2012

Nope gold is not rising it is money supply and currencies being debased against gold. You can print all the paper you want but you can only mine gold... if anyone is interested btw Gold mined in the past 5 years totals about 8% rise if it were on that chart.

Something else that is not being taken into account is the Gold price of mining production and bringing to market. Current conservative estimates are 1 oz costs about $1250 to bring to end market now with rising costs and inflation this will only grow.

Mining cost alone is now above $700, well on the way to $1000 and some are there already.

Since you mention the cost of production........do you think that's a useful allocation of mankind's energy and resources? What it really means is if you want one ounce of gold worth $1650 as an investment, you have to pay a bunch of miners and other middlemen $1250 to make it possible....money mostly genuinely spent in manpower/mining/machinery/land/whatever.

The alternative being a system of paper or electronic money (obviously PROPERLY run) which is by comparison virtually free.

The costs have risen significantly partly because companies have to dig deeper to find high-grade gold deposits. In many cases, that means digging more than one mile into the ground. In addition, costs associated with almost everything have moved higher as well.

The current market price is roughly $1650 an ounce. As the costs rise it underpins the price, if it gets too low they will simple stop mining causing a supply problem if theres healthy demand. Whilst there is fear, lack of investment returns, monetary uncertainty, currency debasement there is only one direction for gold the big banks know it, the market knows it.Nations are net buyers of gold not selling it

During the 80s PM run there was no Indians, no Chinese, half of Europe and 0 in Africa investing or able to. Today this is not the case. Whether Gold runs further this year or continues to consolidate isn't important. What is important is if the fundamentals have changed or are likely to. I don't see it.

Oh and as for the German repatriation item ? yes it's highly significant, the 7 year period is tantamount of saying even though the US has 8000 tonnes a meagre 350 or so cannot be sent in less than a 7 year time period. This is almost certainly because its all leased out and needs time to supply. Why is this significant ? well it sends a simple signal. If you don't hold it you don't own it. Watch other nations demand their gold back in the coming years. Especially from the US as its not a trading centre for gold and hasn't been since the 70s. Gold trading takes place in London and Zurich not NY.

This isn't hard to understand. The western world is in a big hole and just digging it ever deeper, head in the sand ass in the air. Its simple economics. Against nearly all currencies gold is seen to be appreciating and along with it other currencies such as the baht. This isnt the case it is those currencies actually depreciating that makes gold and currencies such as the baht look good.

The funny thing is after the biggest financial crisis known to man, gold has barely whimpered up to double, and the baht and so on barely up a few points (though I myself have had investments in both!). Meanwhile, all that gold is sitting in some vault adding nothing to the energy of the worlds commerce which most equity investments do. ie Everyone buys gold = no money for building or developing anything = you would be flying back to Europe of America each year in a Stratocruiser + no mortgage for you my son you better keep renting that room.

You could look upon folk like Naam and myself as, yes,heroic for pointing out the error in this.

Edited January 30, 2013 by cheeryble

[cheeryble]

ps:

Just a thought:

If QE added a trill or two to circulation and is inflationary........will they possibly begin to counteract the trillions wiped off people's property and investment valuations which naturally stop them using that money or borrowing against it to use in real $ in the real world in both investments and good old enjoyable spending which would have been.....presumably......much more inflationary?

Cheeryble

Edited January 30, 2013 by cheeryble

[Naam]

Heres the thing, Gold is a store of wealth, insurance if you like its not about investing and making money. Its simple to see

....and gold was a particularly rubbish 'store of wealth' between 1980 and 2005.

So it wasn't. And therefore the argument that it is/was at all times is thoroughly debased.

Carry on.

even if you bought back in 1975 ($180/ounce) you had till end of 2005 an average value appreciation of a meager 3.5% p.a. not even equivalent to the yield an average intelligent German Shepherd (alternatively a Dachshund) would have achieved handling your debased currencies.

[cheeryble]

That is the bubble, when the majority of market participants own an asset. I think there are more people that own a tech company’s stock than gold.There is no mania buying, Hedgefunds are not in there yet and nor is the general public.

English Oak....you've got to get out more.

Just about every table I sit at someone tells me all about how gold is the only way to salvation.

When my somtam lady told me GLD is a sham and I must hold physical at the Perth Mint I knew what to do.

ps: Newsflash

My old friends in Geneva (the ones who lost 42B$ in one go) have just sharply put up holding fees for bullion......they don't want the business unless it's "allocated" and they're not the custodian. Not very nice for their balance sheets with scrutiny nowadays. Presumably that means it can't be held as part of a larger "batch" so not surprised it's more effort for them.

Ah well....the travails of holding gold are hopefully matched by it's lustre and financial allure.....

Edited January 30, 2013 by cheeryble

[cheeryble]

.......there's more.

Talking about the wonderful performance of gold which I don't think is so wonderful is after the event of it doubling (actually underdoubling) in price because of uncertainties after the crash.

But the crash was a Black Swan event wasn't it?......so that doubling would in normal circumstances not have happened.....it was a once or twice a century event.....so I don't think you can call the rise to $1700 any sort of predictable 'normal' behaviour of gold.

No.....gold's rise was certainly due to the very event you lament over.

[Jayman]

.......there's more.

Talking about the wonderful performance of gold which I don't think is so wonderful is after the event of it doubling (actually underdoubling) in price because of uncertainties after the crash.

But the crash was a Black Swan event wasn't it?......so that doubling would in normal circumstances not have happened.....it was a once or twice a century event.....so I don't think you can call the rise to $1700 any sort of predictable 'normal' behaviour of gold.

No.....gold's rise was certainly due to the very event you lament over.

You mean to say that it did what we buy it to do? Hedge against a failing financial system.

[englishoak]

Well if your in Asia its hardly surprising gold has always been a store of wealth there my wife opened my eyes up on that one a decade ago

Basel III went live Jan 1st The Basel Committee on Banking, the body that sets the standards followed by the industrialized world’s central banks (and the commercial banks they oversee), has reclassified gold bullion as a “tier one asset.” According to the Basel Committee’s new rule, known as “Basel III,” as of the New Year, gold will be counted at 100 percent of its market value when a bank’s assets are audited. Moreover, under Basel III, a bank’s tier one assets must rise from 4 percent to 6 percent of its total assets. This means that many banks are likely to replace substantial portions of their mortgage-backed securities and bond portfolios with gold.

Gold had already doubled by the crash of 08 and to be honest I don't come here to play yes it is no it isnt games, merely to point out the direction its going, instead of money printing we would have had a blowout probably already, Now its underpinned.

Why do you think I put up easy to read longterm graphs ? have I said it is a longterm investment ? I don't think so, I said its a hedge when currencies are falling and a safe haven.

Or if you prefer re currencies

Seriously guys if you get off on trying to bait me over a few graphs that are perfectly conservative and intended to show the example golds been the perfect hedge the last decade you picked the wrong bloke. Its a HEDGE NOT A LONGTERM INVESTMENT and currency is falling like a stone. I'm in and im very happy, obviously your not.

I'll bail when its about run its course, sorry you missed the boat, im sure .

PS im not even a goldbug, I just like to ride the waves and content to know atm the place not to be is paper, nevermind you keep on saying its been a bad option the past 10 years like Nam has for the past 6

[Naam]

Basel III went live Jan 1st The Basel Committee on Banking, the body that sets the standards followed by the industrialized world’s central banks (and the commercial banks they oversee), has reclassified gold bullion as a “tier one asset.” According to the Basel Committee’s new rule, known as “Basel III,” as of the New Year, gold will be counted at 100 percent of its market value when a bank’s assets are audited. Moreover, under Basel III, a bank’s tier one assets must rise from 4 percent to 6 percent of its total assets. This means that many banks are likely to replace substantial portions of their mortgage-backed securities and bond portfolios with gold.

a blatant lie, in essence suggested and spread by the "World Gold Council", misquoted, twisted and misinterpreted by ignorant journàsslists and then spread further by people who are too lazy to get the facts. period!

correct is that the T1 assets have to rise. there is no "new rule". Basel III has not yet been implemented and the latter even applies to Basel II.

here's a twelve day old summary on Basel III and gold from Kitco which usually publishes fair and unbiased comments even though it is considered a "goldbug" site.

-Basel III does NOT, in any significant way, change the way the U.S. regulator sees gold.

-Gold has NOT become the legal tender in any country adhering to the Basel III rules.

-Basel III is NOT a shift toward a gold standard, contrary to what has been rumored.

-The general regulatory trend in the EU seems to point to the inclusion of gold as a “riskless” asset.

http://www.kitco.com...i/20130116.html

[mccw]

"-The general regulatory trend in the EU seems to point to the inclusion of gold as a “riskless” asset."

Yep .... And there for.....

[englishoak]

Not so much a lie my jovial pensioner, just a mistake your quite correct I hadnt updated since xmas.

Interesting bit this though you missed out.

The situation looks slightly different in Europe. If you remember, under Basel II gold could be considered a “riskless” asset at national discretion. The EU consists of 27 countries, each with its different supervisory regulations. The European Commission did not automatically consider gold a “riskless” asset, but charged the European Banking Authority (EBA) with the task of identifying which assets are to be legally deemed “riskless.” On the other hand, the European Parliament expressly pointed to gold as a highly liquid asset that should be taken into consideration by the EBA. The EBA review is scheduled to end in 2015, gold is however, already recognized as collateral.

What does all of this mean for you? Generally speaking, if gold is officially confirmed as a “riskless” asset by the EBA, then an increase in demand for gold may be seen in the EU. Such an increase, however, would not be a main driver of the price of gold. So, Basel III is not a major factor in the continuing gold bull market. Favorable fundamentals for gold, even without a positive impact from Basel III, are still in place and the long-term trend remains up.

Suits me just fine there wont be any excuses there then

btw I have no idea why why you would consider kitco a goldbug site seeing as its the PM main industries information site. If you trade PM bull or bear you generally use kitco in some form.

while we are on the news.

UBS and Credit Suisse, which dominate the powerful Zurich-based physical gold market, have hiked their charges for holding the metal, according to clients and people familiar with the banks.

Last month, UBS and Credit Suisse imposed negative interest rates on short-term cash deposits in an attempt to stem inflows from investors seeking a haven from the eurozone crisis.

Some gold investors began shifting holdings from unallocated to allocated accounts – which are generally more expensive – at the beginning of the financial crisis. Unallocated holders can lose their investment if a bank fails, but holders of allocated gold are protected.

http://www.ft.com/cm...l#axzz2JVURgVcf

Hehe people and institutions are definitely getting the jitters.

Edited January 31, 2013 by englishoak

[Naam]

What does all of this mean for you? Generally speaking...

...to me it means nothing but bla-bla-bla.

there's nothing wrong having, ex ante, an opinion or even moderate wishful thinking. but let's stick to facts instead of adopting blindly the garbage spread by people and/or institutions with an agenda such as "the Basel III gold myth".

[Naam]

"-The general regulatory trend in the EU seems to point to the inclusion of gold as a "riskless" asset."

Yep .... And there for.....

therefore we have to wait and see instead of jumping to conclusions which are in line with our expectations.

[Naam]

food for thoughts...

even without any means to verify the figures i read about three years ago i consider it worthwhile to "waste" a few thoughts.

the claim was that physical gold represents less than 0.025% of the value of all financial assets globally. can we therefore conclude that those investors who hold 99.975% of non-gold assets are all idiots?

[englishoak]

Funny but you said that not me, as with any trend there are players and there arn't. We can therefore conclude that there are 99.975% that have indeed missed the boat on a 10 year bull run. Id expected it to be over by now but thanks to the pathetic and foolish ideal you can throw wads of endless paper as an unpayable and insolvent system its now likely theres a long way to go.

Im not sure how overpriced some of the other 99.975% of non gold assets are but you can bet its quite a staggering amount with whats continuously being pumped in. Silvers fine and probably most assets such as farming land etc. Depends on what you call assets, i woudn't bet on a pension fund or any finance backed securities atm nor any bank, Property ? ,,,, mmm risky too. Apple and such ? blownout atm

I think you have a jaded view of a market thats been in a run youve clearly avoided, sorry about that. It dosn't mean everyone in it thinks bad of other investments or assets, or at least I don't its just the most sensible atm.

[Naam]

We can therefore conclude that there are 99.975% that have indeed missed the boat on a 10 year bull run.

you conclusion is an assumption fetched out of thin air. fact is that the last decade provided returns in some asset classes of which the "wealth preservers" can only dream of.

check bonds of sovereign emerging market debtors (e.g. Mexico, Brazil and the other whole nine yards of Latin America) which not only double and tripled in value but provided year for year 15-25% yields based on entry price. anf if you go back another 3 years take a look at a Russian benchmark bond (RF 28 denominated in US-Dollars, ISIN XS0088543193) which went from 22 to today's 190 providing a total return in excess of 1,200%

Edited January 31, 2013 by Naam

[cheeryble]

Guesses please what would be the price of gold if the crash of 08 hadn't happened? Less or more than it's price in 1980?

[Naam]

Guesses please what would be the price of gold if the crash of 08 hadn't happened? Less or more than it's price in 1980?

difficult to guess because gold started already in 2002 to move up, 6 years before the actual 08 implosion. shooting from the hip i'd say "considerably higher than 1980".

[mccw]

"-The general regulatory trend in the EU seems to point to the inclusion of gold as a "riskless" asset."

Yep .... And there for.....

therefore we have to wait and see instead of jumping to conclusions which are in line with our expectations.

If one doesn't guess by reasoning a conclusion of likely future then how do judge what actions to take?

[Naam]

"-The general regulatory trend in the EU seems to point to the inclusion of gold as a "riskless" asset."

Yep .... And there for.....

therefore we have to wait and see instead of jumping to conclusions which are in line with our expectations.

If one doesn't guess by reasoning a conclusion of likely future then how do judge what actions to take?

a heap of your postings prove that you think and conclude "wishful". cross reference evidence are your various ideas in other threads which refer conducting potential businesses (some, not all, keywords are "silver mint, condo construction, 2nd hand Rolex trading").

[mccw]

"-The general regulatory trend in the EU seems to point to the inclusion of gold as a "riskless" asset."

Yep .... And there for.....

therefore we have to wait and see instead of jumping to conclusions which are in line with our expectations.

If one doesn't guess by reasoning a conclusion of likely future then how do judge what actions to take?

a heap of your postings prove that you think and conclude "wishful". cross reference evidence are your various ideas in other threads which refer conducting potential businesses (some, not all, keywords are "silver mint, condo construction, 2nd hand Rolex trading").

Expecting a solid maintaining of value in currencies being actively debased sounds like worse "wishful thinking" to me.

Btw, since you mention it; Just through my wife's extended friends network since that post we've almost certainly found buyers for 2 Rolex and 1 AP. Seems Thai's love the bling; the Patek Philleppe has hardly any interest at all. Maybe a more refined gent such as your self might appreciate them? I'm talking Mint vintage. I also have some fine antique carpets if your interested? Seriously. Independently identified and valued.

Condo / apartment building is an interesting subject for me since I have a little experience in property development, but nothing on such a scale; its not something I plan to get involved in any time soon, but still interesting to think about none the less.

Silver minting. Hmm; no one, you included, was able to explain exactly how a metals trader hedges the price movements. The margin alone can't cover it surely. I think definitely there is a gap to provide over the counter investment grade silver bullion but the network of gold shops would be best suited to introduce their own product, if they saw some one start to make money from it for sure they would start as well, which likely would kill the small time start up..

Talking over ideas doesn't equate to wishful thinking; its part of the thought process and as much to help self processing by seeing them laid out in text as much as for the returning comments.

However, having said all that, one needs a little bit of wishful thinking or no investment decisions would ever be taken at all.

Good reasoned risk assessment. Case in point if I buy a few watches at a good price and fail to get the sale prices I want then at least I have some nice watches to wear myself or if I buy some houses people will need to roof over head or some land to produce food, people need to eat and I can sustain myself outside of any financial system. Quite a different risk to buying and or holding 100s of thousands in government bonds that could be defaulted on or inflated away to peanuts. No matter how big a cushion of non physical assets you have acquired it all equals nothing more than air in event of the Shit realy Hitting The Fan.

[englishoak]

How could it be an assumption out of thin air, if 99.975% as yet are not invested in gold as you claim and the bull run has certainly been on for 10 years then its pretty clear they missed it. Whether they are in something else or not is irrelevant, There are plenty of obscure places to invest but id rather be comfortable thank you. Could I invest in Russian benchmark bonds if id have wanted to ? I doubt it. For the average investor PM's have been the place to be for the past decade no question.

Your been wrong about the past 6 years and have been petty and arrogant all along Nam i have no idea why, nor frankly do I care.

[mccw]

English oak- if the silver price is in first stage and gold in its second stage of the bull then the proverbial boat hasn't been "missed" just yet has it?

I think naam probably has held a reasonable % of his wealth in gold for some time longer than the current bull even. He just loves to wind people up.

[englishoak]

True, I won't go into details but both silver and gold are suppressed silver more so and both have been stalled whereas they should be much much further along the road in stages by now. As to missing the boat well that depends, gold is still a good buy but its already up 100% since 08 current of say 1700 would mean to double your money if you enter now would see it at 3400. Something personally I have no problem envisioning but if you had been in at say pre 2008 or even 09 that by 3400 youd be looking at about a 400% gain instead of 100% quite a difference.

Silver on the other hand has gone up 300% in the same timeframe yet its still cheap at 30 and it could be in the second stage but i think ( and its only an opinion its still stuck in stage 1 ) I have no problems seeing it go into the 100s and probably out perform gold as most wont be getting into gold past 2500 other than the funds and central banks, at that point as in the 70s investors will as likely turn to silver. only this time theres another 4 billion able to take part that couldnt in the 70s.

The answer is no the boat hasnt been missed but the best entry point of any wave is of course at the bottom . Platinum and palladium are on the rise and the fundamentals with those is that Russia is about out of above ground supply of palladium and the costs of mining will be passed on. Its also one of those things that cant be done without, unless people want pollution on the scale china has and even if it doubles it amount in a car at approx $200 would only go to 400 in a $40,000 car thats minuscule.

Mining stocks are terribly cheap considering down 60 or 70% in the last few years but they are also a huge risk unless you know what your doing, I don't so i avoid them but the time to get in them with a possible downside of about 20% or so as compared to 1000% + or so is truly tempting, Markets are funny things and emotion driven, the trick I guess is to force the head to rule those emotions. Pretty easy if your a fund manager being someone elses money and real hard if its your own.

As this is a gold and PM thread I don't see the point of discussing other assets or stocks there are other threads for that.

I don't really see the point of trolling people on multiple thread topics, maybe its entertainment for Naam I dunno, I like to go out for my entertainment.

Edited January 31, 2013 by englishoak

[Naam]

How could it be an assumption out of thin air, if 99.975% as yet are not invested in gold as you claim and the bull run has certainly been on for 10 years then its pretty clear they missed it. Whether they are in something else or not is irrelevant, There are plenty of obscure places to invest but id rather be comfortable thank you. Could I invest in Russian benchmark bonds if id have wanted to ? I doubt it. For the average investor PM's have been the place to be for the past decade no question.

Your been wrong about the past 6 years and have been petty and arrogant all along Nam i have no idea why, nor frankly do I care.

nobody has stopped you investing in assets which yielded more than precious metals. that i have been wrong and arrogant for the past six years has as much credibility as if i said that all your children are ugly. but yes, i can be very "petty" when pointing out misleading rubbish and presenting hard facts instead.

[englishoak]

LOL Christ man you need to let the stuck up attitude go, get some lao kao down you or something. Used to be a lot of good helpful people on TV most of which have left for the same reason. The me myself and I brigade.

Meh no ones stopped me investing in an asset thats returned 400% or so thanks very much im more than content nor do I mind or care if youve had luck in Russian bonds or some obscure vintage wine or something. Each to their own old son, im more than happy and I dare say others have been far better off in their investments of choice and no doubt trumped you too. So what this is a gold thread nothing else.

Ive only seen you here over the last 6 years peddling your one liners when in fact for anyone in PM its been a great investment. Not that youd care to admit it and offer some positive note or advise rather than snide pointless jibes at people most of the time. Your such an asset to the place.

[Naam]

get some lao kao down you or something...

i prefer "something"!

[ajarnpot]

to answer the OP's question to Germany it appears, though that depends on if it still exists