Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[Naam]

Finally the fund mangers and bankers. I hold them leasdt responsible, because everyone should have already known they were thieves. Still, stone'em all.

LRB, i wonder with what ideas we come up with after sharing two (or perhaps three) good bottles of wine

[jesimps]

Has anyone ever bought gold online from BullionVault? Have registered with them for when I think the time is right to buy, but before I do, can anyone recommend/not recommend them.

[lannarebirth]

Finally the fund mangers and bankers. I hold them leasdt responsible, because everyone should have already known they were thieves. Still, stone'em all.

LRB, i wonder with what ideas we come up with after sharing two (or perhaps three) good bottles of wine

I look forward to it. In the meantime I wish you a safe journey tomorrow , and hope to see you back in a couple of weeks with your new turbocharged heart all in good working order. Zum Wohl!

[flying]

Has anyone ever bought gold online from BullionVault? Have registered with them for when I think the time is right to buy, but before I do, can anyone recommend/not recommend them.

You dont own it if you dont hold it..

IMHO

[flying]

If I were you I would lay off those goldbug newsletters, suckers have lost their entire life savings over the past couple of years by believing the $2000/ounce hype, or the COMEX will fail to deliver hype, or the U.S. dollar downfall and hyperinflation hype! We are in a worldwide recession and their will be a strong deflationary trend for quite some time, so investing in gold now will only bring you heartbreak and losses for the foreseeable future. Gold will break down below $650/ounce before years end, so if you really feel the need to own some of the shiny stuff I would wait a while

I am still very interested

Also unlike stocks gold will never be worth zero. So I wouldnt lose my life savings. But after watching for weeks I do wonder why it usually goes up every night in the east then is beaten down in the west when our markets open.

Although it is going up pretty good today. What is due next week?

Also the POG seems quite controlled by paper/comex which may or may not ever be able to be converted to gold so is it a true reflection? The premiums they are getting for physical gold would suggest no. Like you say could be fail to deliver hype but.... Remember When Warren Buffet wanted his 130 million ounces of Silver?

I do hope your right though about going below 650 but at that time will there be any to buy? Will the premiums be $2-300/oz?

Just wondering out loud

[Naam]

Has anyone ever bought gold online from BullionVault? Have registered with them for when I think the time is right to buy, but before I do, can anyone recommend/not recommend them.

You dont own it if you dont hold it.

= words of wisdom!

[jesimps]

Has anyone ever bought gold online from BullionVault? Have registered with them for when I think the time is right to buy, but before I do, can anyone recommend/not recommend them.

You dont own it if you dont hold it..

IMHO

Food for thought. Thanks.

[lannarebirth]

And the deflationary argument for Gold is what, again?

PRODUCTION CAPACITY

China positioned to unleash global deflation

DAVID PARKINSON

November 13, 2008

It wasn't that long ago that pundits were counting on China to rescue the world from economic calamity. Now, China may be poised to become a key source of the problem

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/sto...PStory/Business

Edited November 15, 2008 by lannarebirth

[churchill]

Iran switches reserves to gold

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran has converted financial reserves into gold to avoid future problems, an adviser to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in comments published on Saturday, after the price of oil fell more than 60 percent from a peak in July.

Iran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, is under U.N. and U.S. sanctions over its disputed nuclear programme and is now also facing declining revenue from its oil exports after crude prices tumbled.

"With the plans of the presidency...the country's money reserves were changed into gold so that we wouldn't be faced with many problems in the future," presidential adviser Mojtaba Samareh-Hashemi was quoted as saying by business daily Poul.

He gave no figures or other details.

Before oil prices plunged by more than 60 percent from a peak of $147 per barrel in July, Iran made windfall gains from its crude exports and in April estimated its foreign exchange reserves at about $80 billion.

Iranian officials in July denied reports Iranian banks were moving funds from Europe, with one report suggesting as much as $75 billion had been withdrawn and converted into gold or placed in Asian banks, because of a threat of tightening sanctions.

The International Monetary Fund said in August that if the price of Iranian crude fell to $75 a barrel, Iran would face a current account deficit in the medium term that would be tough to sustain due to Tehran's financial isolation.

On Friday, U.S. crude fell $1.20 at $57.04.

Gold futures ended more than 5 percent higher on Friday and bullion ended the week about $10 higher compared with its last Friday's close of $735.95 as investors covered short positions.

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews...-36518320081115

[LaoPo]

Interesting link to read, elsewhere on this forum:

Gold to $ 2000 in 2009 and $ 5000 in 2012...? :

http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/Free-fall-t2...90#entry2333590

LaoPo

[flying]

At least Gold & Silver is & always will be money.

In recent days it seems I have read many articles of countries who feel the same way.

Many seem to be losing faith in Paper/Fiat Currency or at least hedging it with money.

Edited November 15, 2008 by flying

[Naam]

At least Gold & Silver is & always will be money.

In recent days it seems I have read many articles of countries who feel the same way.

Many seem to be losing faith in Paper/Fiat Currency or at least hedging it with money.

sure! i can vivivly imagine our wives paying for steaks at the butcher and a loaf of bread in a bakery with Krüger Rands or Maple Leaves. soon the bars in Pattaya will demand that the bar fines are settled in gold dust

[Naam]

ran, the world's fourth-largest oil producer, is under U.N. and U.S. sanctions over its disputed nuclear programme

worthwhile to mention is that China and Japan who lift the bulk of iranian oil care a shét about the sanctions.

[VegasVic]

At least Gold & Silver is & always will be money.

In recent days it seems I have read many articles of countries who feel the same way.

Many seem to be losing faith in Paper/Fiat Currency or at least hedging it with money.

sure! i can vivivly imagine our wives paying for steaks at the butcher and a loaf of bread in a bakery with Krüger Rands or Maple Leaves. soon the bars in Pattaya will demand that the bar fines are settled in gold dust

You have a great wit Naam I'll bet there are some very nervous goldbugs out there today after the G-20 came forward yesterday after their meeting and spoke with such unanimity of purpose! After all the whole goldbug thesis is that countries will not trust each other and the fiat money system will break down and gold will reign supreme. It appears that gold will likely head down below $600/ounce long before it ever reigns supreme

[flying]

At least Gold & Silver is & always will be money.

In recent days it seems I have read many articles of countries who feel the same way.

Many seem to be losing faith in Paper/Fiat Currency or at least hedging it with money.

sure! i can vivivly imagine our wives paying for steaks at the butcher and a loaf of bread in a bakery with Krüger Rands or Maple Leaves. soon the bars in Pattaya will demand that the bar fines are settled in gold dust

Yes funny but that is not the use I had in mind

What I was thinking was that as an investment it would never be worthless.

Unlike many other investments these days.

But along the lines of your comment lets say for a moment your somewhere & the currencey goes bust.......Say Iceland? Ok but you have a few pounds of gold.

Would that help? Could you maybe use it to leave that country by selling a few ounces? Perhaps.

Ok now we move over to yours? & Vegas Vic's side.................... Nothing happens the world is peachy keen no problems with the fiat currencies. Do I feel like a fool for having a few pounds of these metals? No not really I feel ok

[flying]

It appears that gold will likely head down below $600/ounce long before it ever reigns supreme

I actually believe this & always have. That it will drop down to the 650 range before assuming its more accurate price. I have no reigns supreme delusions but I do believe it is way undervalued. I also believe as more countries start to pull their paper into physical holdings the price will rise quite a bit. Remember what happened to prices when Warren Buffet asked for his 130 million ounces of Silver?

Edited November 16, 2008 by flying

[VegasVic]

It appears that gold will likely head down below $600/ounce long before it ever reigns supreme

I actually believe this & always have. That it will drop down to the 650 range before assuming its more accurate price. I have no reigns supreme delusions but I do believe it is way undervalued. I also believe as more countries start to pull their paper into physical holdings the price will rise quite a bit. Remember what happened to prices when Warren Buffet asked for his 130 million ounces of Silver?

Flying, I have to say that among the goldbugs I have encountered you have a much more realistic view than 99% of them! You must realize that the U.S. Dollar was in the midst of the perfect storm scenario from 2003-July 2008, and there was so much cheap money available throughout this time (especially towards the end of this era) that hedge funds and private equity funds wound up throwing money at things like oil and gold, hence the bubble in both of those commodities that is still unwinding. We will never see that kind of liquidity or leverage again in our lifetime, and even then the best gold could do with the tailwinds of this perfect storm helping it was about $1030/ounce, so what type of scenario could reasonably occur that would catapault gold to those heights ever again? You seem like a logical fellow, and I know that many people out there are in a panic and so I can see some folks going to gold in order to preserve capital, but to actually think that there will be some large scale price appreciation in gold over then next year or two begs the question to be asked, just what will cause this to happen?

[flying]

so what type of scenario could reasonably occur that would catapault gold to those heights ever again? You seem like a logical fellow, and I know that many people out there are in a panic and so I can see some folks going to gold in order to preserve capital, but to actually think that there will be some large scale price appreciation in gold over then next year or two begs the question to be asked, just what will cause this to happen?

I am no expert of that I am certain But based on things I am reading I just agree that Gold is undervalued. Also not to discount what you just said about folks going to gold in a panic to preserve capital. That alone is a pretty good reason too.

But like I said before will I feel foolish later if I have some PM's & nothing happens? No I dont think so

Will I feel foolish if things go like I think they will. After feeling the way I do ??

Oh yeah baby

[flying]

Whoops I just saw what I wrote & it was too long after the fact to edit it..............

What I meant to say was .....will I feel foolish if things go the way I think & I did nothing to prepare?

Yes by all means

Edited November 16, 2008 by flying

[flying]

Flying, I have to say that among the goldbugs I have encountered you have a much more realistic view than 99% of them! You must realize that the U.S. Dollar was in the midst of the perfect storm scenario from 2003-July 2008, and there was so much cheap money available throughout this time (especially towards the end of this era) that hedge funds and private equity funds wound up throwing money at things like oil and gold, hence the bubble in both of those commodities that is still unwinding. We will never see that kind of liquidity or leverage again in our lifetime, and even then the best gold could do with the tailwinds of this perfect storm helping it was about $1030/ounce, so what type of scenario could reasonably occur that would catapault gold to those heights ever again? You seem like a logical fellow, and I know that many people out there are in a panic and so I can see some folks going to gold in order to preserve capital, but to actually think that there will be some large scale price appreciation in gold over then next year or two begs the question to be asked, just what will cause this to happen?

Vic I have a question for you....... One of the more interesting things I have read was the relation of Gold to the Dow. As in how many ounces of gold it takes to buy a share of the dow. Have you read or heard this analogy? If so what did you think of it?

I have only seen it in books but just did a search & this person explains it pretty much like I have read it.

What do you think of it? Just Wondering.... because I see many folks speak of value & ways to determine it. I have seen this method mentioned often even when looking at the price of oil etc.

http://www.wisewomeninvestor.com/wp-conten...2-7-entrust.pdf

[Naam]

It appears that gold will likely head down below $600/ounce long before it ever reigns supreme

I actually believe this & always have. That it will drop down to the 650 range before assuming its more accurate price. I have no reigns supreme delusions but I do believe it is way undervalued. I also believe as more countries start to pull their paper into physical holdings the price will rise quite a bit. Remember what happened to prices when Warren Buffet asked for his 130 million ounces of Silver?

what makes you a believer Flying? Buffet bought silver and the price rallied to 7.80/ounce. that was nearly ELEVEN YEARS ago. today the price of silver is 9.65/ounce. i am sure that my dog (with a little coaching by me) would achieve better yields than linear 2½ percent per annum

[Naam]

At least Gold & Silver is & always will be money.

In recent days it seems I have read many articles of countries who feel the same way.

Many seem to be losing faith in Paper/Fiat Currency or at least hedging it with money.

sure! i can vivivly imagine our wives paying for steaks at the butcher and a loaf of bread in a bakery with Krüger Rands or Maple Leaves. soon the bars in Pattaya will demand that the bar fines are settled in gold dust

What I was thinking was that as an investment it would never be worthless.

Flying, it all depends on your definition of "worthless". my definition of "worth" respectively "worthless" differs from yours. in my view gold was worthless² for those who bought in 1979/80 and looked at its value 20 years later. but even now -nearly 30 years later- the afore-mentioned poor buggers look at a yield equivalent to nada, zilch, rien, muffat, niente, nichts... ZERO (inflation rate not even taken into consideration!). and that applies even to those goldbugs who bought at rather low prices let's say in 1990 and looked at there gold a decade later. was there a preservation of capital or value?

not only since years but since decades i hear the goldbug fairy tales "fiat money is <deleted>, gold will be x- or y- or z-thousand dollars an ounce!" i listen to them and i smile but congratulate those who bought a few years ago and are happy now. of course it goes without saying that the present goldbugs all bought in 2000 at 260 and sold in march 2008 a 1,032

[flying]

Flying, it all depends on your definition of "worthless". my definition of "worth" respectively "worthless" differs from yours. in my view gold was worthless² for those who bought in 1979/80 and looked at its value 20 years later.

Yes our definitions are different. I meant gold never was & never will be worth zero dollars. The same cannot be said for stocks.

[flying]

what makes you a believer Flying? Buffet bought silver and the price rallied to 7.80/ounce. that was nearly ELEVEN YEARS ago. today the price of silver is 9.65/ounce. i am sure that my dog (with a little coaching by me) would achieve better yields than linear 2½ percent per annum

Perhaps I miss quoted something?

I thought he sold in 2006 & started buying in 97

Also a few other things I wonder.....

Silver unlike gold has industrial useage

Defense, Autos, electronics industry.

There is not all that much Silver above ground.

A large buyer like Bill Gates could probably buy it all at todays prices.

Mutual Funds? As they run for somewhere to hide why not PM's?

As this happens why cannot PM's have a bubble just as Real Estate & stocks did?

Also I think in the near future folks will realize it is easier to double their money in silver vs gold. Folks dont like silver they get too much for their money

Lastly what is the historical average price ratio between gold & silver? 12/1

Right now we are at 80/1.... SO I am pretty hopeful based on hisory that there will be an adjustment

Edited November 17, 2008 by flying

[flying]

I agree, silver has way more uses than gold, and the ratio between gold and silver is just that, hence the reason a lot of big players are more bullish on silver than gold.

I wonder if that makes us silver bugs?

[Naam]

Flying, it all depends on your definition of "worthless". my definition of "worth" respectively "worthless" differs from yours. in my view gold was worthless² for those who bought in 1979/80 and looked at its value 20 years later.

Yes our definitions are different. I meant gold never was & never will be worth zero dollars. The same cannot be said for stocks.

WHO or WHAT are "stocks" Flying? :D

[Naam]

Flying, it all depends on your definition of "worthless". my definition of "worth" respectively "worthless" differs from yours. in my view gold was worthless² for those who bought in 1979/80 and looked at its value 20 years later.

Yes our definitions are different. I meant gold never was & never will be worth zero dollars. The same cannot be said for stocks.

WHO or WHAT are "stocks" Flying? :D

[Naam]

Flying, it all depends on your definition of "worthless". my definition of "worth" respectively "worthless" differs from yours. in my view gold was worthless² for those who bought in 1979/80 and looked at its value 20 years later.

Yes our definitions are different. I meant gold never was & never will be worth zero dollars. The same cannot be said for stocks.

WHO or WHAT are "stocks" Flying? :D

[flying]

WHO or WHAT are "stocks" Flying?

Helloooooooooo Is there an echo in here or is it that slow connection you mentioned that caused you to post 3x??

Ok here is your definition for the day but you must go home now & use it in a sentence chai mai??

STOCKS

a supply of capital : funds ; especially : money or capital invested or available for investment or trading b (1): the part of a tally formerly given to the creditor in a transaction (2): a debt or fund due (as from a government) for money loaned at interest ; also British : capital or a debt or fund bearing interest in perpetuity and not ordinarily redeemable as to principal c (1): the proprietorship element in a corporation usually divided into shares and represented by transferable certificates (2): a portion of such stock of one or more companies (3): stock certificate

Edited November 18, 2008 by flying

[VegasVic]

Flying, I have to say that among the goldbugs I have encountered you have a much more realistic view than 99% of them! You must realize that the U.S. Dollar was in the midst of the perfect storm scenario from 2003-July 2008, and there was so much cheap money available throughout this time (especially towards the end of this era) that hedge funds and private equity funds wound up throwing money at things like oil and gold, hence the bubble in both of those commodities that is still unwinding. We will never see that kind of liquidity or leverage again in our lifetime, and even then the best gold could do with the tailwinds of this perfect storm helping it was about $1030/ounce, so what type of scenario could reasonably occur that would catapault gold to those heights ever again? You seem like a logical fellow, and I know that many people out there are in a panic and so I can see some folks going to gold in order to preserve capital, but to actually think that there will be some large scale price appreciation in gold over then next year or two begs the question to be asked, just what will cause this to happen?

Vic I have a question for you....... One of the more interesting things I have read was the relation of Gold to the Dow. As in how many ounces of gold it takes to buy a share of the dow. Have you read or heard this analogy? If so what did you think of it?

I have only seen it in books but just did a search & this person explains it pretty much like I have read it.

What do you think of it? Just Wondering.... because I see many folks speak of value & ways to determine it. I have seen this method mentioned often even when looking at the price of oil etc.

http://www.wisewomeninvestor.com/wp-conten...2-7-entrust.pdf

Flying, Gold is not a rational market, therefore to try and link it to rational markets is a fools errand (something the goldbug newsletters do all the time) Let me try and explain what I mean. Gold has very little "real" demand unlike base metals that have actual quantifyable industrial demand that is directly linked to the price of those metals at any time. Don't get me wrong, gold does have some industrial demand (although this demand has been steadily dropping for 10 years now), but it is only about 10% of the actual ammount mined annually. The price of gold basically revolves around the world jewelry markets and people who hoard the metal believing that the world will come to and end and that fiat money will have no value ( this group we call "goldbugs" is a living example of the greater fool theory). Unless there is some new technology that surfaces that requires a massive ammount of gold in its production, I just see the gold market as something akin to the U.S. baseball card craze or the tulip market in Holland during its wild era