Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[LivinLOS]

question for Flying: when exactly could folks see that "fiat was heading...?" and "where exactly did fiat head to?" i haven't seen any fiat heading to a specific destination. facts please, claims without basis, assumptions and wet dreams not acceptable.

Yeah yeah sorry call it USD like I meant then tell me how much your hanging on to Nothing wrong with trading in depreciating rubbish for money or tangibles eh

one can look at USD from different perspectives and at different periods. does it surprise you that today the USD ("back"-calculated on the basis of DEM/FRF) is stronger vs. €UR than in 1993 and stronger vs. JP¥ in 1995? i could have also added stronger against GPB but i'm not sure of the year and too lazy to check. most currencies, including the major ones, have been on the roller coaster of market offer and demand.

so where's the fiat beef?

Your measuring fiat against fiat.. Measure it against land, oil, metals etc.. Eg real things and non fiat.

You dont think with the QE and money flood theres going to be some heavy inflation down the pipe ?? Which may even cheer the paper crowd as it brings nominal (not real) new highs in various markets.

[Naam]

1. Your measuring fiat against fiat.. Measure it against land, oil, metals etc.. Eg real things and non fiat.

2. You dont think with the QE and money flood theres going to be some heavy inflation down the pipe ?? Which may even cheer the paper crowd as it brings nominal (not real) new highs in various markets.

1. with fiat and its profits one could and can even today buy anything including land, oil, precious metals or any other commodity. what i am saying is that precious metals were not the one and only non-plus-ultra in investing as some "bugs" claim. those bugs who wear blinkers claim that fiat is worthless even though i can buy any time tangible assets with the fiat i own. besides, once you reach a certain net worth it is something next to impossible to switch to physically non-fiat on which you can lay your hands any time you need it. that prerogative is reserved for "poor" people. in my [not so] humble opinion the anti-fiat bugs who own papergold are owning nothing but fiat gold. if the crisis (as it looked like in october 2008) had developed even harsher they would have been worse off than those who held cash physically in various currencies.

2. i admit that the outlook seems to be bleak although the gurus and learned experts can't make up their minds and their opinions range from deflation to "zimbabwean" hyperinflation (Marc Faber on USD and USA). i am not a guru and have to adapt to whatever i will face in the future and of course i am willing to adapt. highs or lows in the "markets" do not concern me. my only concern is "do i make a multiple of fiat to pay for the income fraction of my actual fiat expenses which enables me to use the remaining multiple of my income for reinvestment in either fiat or commodities?"

as long as this is the case, meaning that i can buy a goldshop with all the contents of its safes if i have the necessary fiat money, i am content and sleep very well. as simple as that.

[flying]

what i am saying is that precious metals were not the one and only non-plus-ultra in investing as some "bugs" claim. those bugs who wear blinkers claim that fiat is worthless even though i can buy any time tangible assets with the fiat i own.

I have not really seen this kind of gold bug talk you speak of.

Most if not all have always said they hold a percentage in gold as a hedge against what they see as a devaluing currency.

Many do not have the ability nor the desire to jump into other paper currencies.

Of course none say the fiat is 100% worthless at this time as it is used to buy PM's & other things.

But really for the life of me I have not seen the type of gold bug zealots you often mention.

At least not on this site/thread

as long as this is the case, meaning that i can buy a goldshop with all the contents of its safes if i have the necessary fiat money, i am content and sleep very well. as simple as that.

Now this type of fiat bug statements I see a lot of

Edited December 20, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

p.s. fair rebuttals are accepted, but youtube clips, citing of gurus as well as mentioning of ricefields will be rejected!

I think Youtube rebuttals like this one are fair game

would you like to know where (i think) you can shove youtube rebuttals?

[sokal]

1. Your measuring fiat against fiat.. Measure it against land, oil, metals etc.. Eg real things and non fiat.

2. You dont think with the QE and money flood theres going to be some heavy inflation down the pipe ?? Which may even cheer the paper crowd as it brings nominal (not real) new highs in various markets.

1. with fiat and its profits one could and can even today buy anything including land, oil, precious metals or any other commodity. what i am saying is that precious metals were not the one and only non-plus-ultra in investing as some "bugs" claim. those bugs who wear blinkers claim that fiat is worthless even though i can buy any time tangible assets with the fiat i own. besides, once you reach a certain net worth it is something next to impossible to switch to physically non-fiat on which you can lay your hands any time you need it. that prerogative is reserved for "poor" people. in my [not so] humble opinion the anti-fiat bugs who own papergold are owning nothing but fiat gold. if the crisis (as it looked like in october 2008) had developed even harsher they would have been worse off than those who held cash physically in various currencies.

2. i admit that the outlook seems to be bleak although the gurus and learned experts can't make up their minds and their opinions range from deflation to "zimbabwean" hyperinflation (Marc Faber on USD and USA). i am not a guru and have to adapt to whatever i will face in the future and of course i am willing to adapt. highs or lows in the "markets" do not concern me. my only concern is "do i make a multiple of fiat to pay for the income fraction of my actual fiat expenses which enables me to use the remaining multiple of my income for reinvestment in either fiat or commodities?"

as long as this is the case, meaning that i can buy a goldshop with all the contents of its safes if i have the necessary fiat money, i am content and sleep very well. as simple as that.

I am sure you could exchange gold for fiat in every single country on this planet, every one. You could also barter gold for stuff, bribe people and launder fiat with gold all over the world so I am not sure why you keep trying to say that fiat offers more opportunity.

Edited December 20, 2009 by sokal

[Naam]

Now this type of fiat bug statements I see a lot of

this is bla-bla and the rest of your posting is completely irrelevant because my comments are not limited to "this site" which is neither representative nor a "real" financial forum. a fistful of knowledgeables, a bunch of ignorants (some of them honest people who admit their inexperience and are willing to learn), a few loud mouths/know-it-alls and a number of participants who have no own thoughts/conclusions but revert to citing others with youtube clips and their (most of the time) wrong assumptions do not make a financial forum.

but the afore-mentioned mixture is interesting and as entertaining as if looking at "Hägar the Terrible" cartoons. that's the reason i am a participant till a consens among moderators is reached to ban me. in addition i get some satisfaction when i can be of assistance to participants who contact me by PMs (= private message NOT precious metals!)

[Naam]

I am sure you could exchange gold for fiat in every single country on this planet, every one. You could also barter gold for stuff, bribe people and launder fiat with gold all over the world so I am not sure why you keep trying to say that fiat offers more opportunity.

you should finally learn to read and understand English. that will reduce the bullshit you excrete in this thread and others.

[sokal]

I am sure you could exchange gold for fiat in every single country on this planet, every one. You could also barter gold for stuff, bribe people and launder fiat with gold all over the world so I am not sure why you keep trying to say that fiat offers more opportunity.

you should finally learn to read and understand English. that will reduce the bullshit you excrete in this thread and others.

This is the gold thread so you can take your fiat and shove it up your fat as$, that's where its going anyway.

[flying]

this is bla-bla and the rest of your posting is completely irrelevant because my comments are not limited to "this site" which is neither representative nor a "real" financial forum.

but revert to citing others with youtube clips and their (most of the time) wrong assumptions do not make a financial forum.

I dont get that at all....I mean if your rants here in a gold thread about gold bugs is not based on those your yelling it at here then??? Where's the gold beef?

As for you tube? I dont understand your hard on for that either.

I mean after all it is just a TIVO unit. Many times it is just a way for folks who missed info given at some function or news cast. It is a easy way of seeing those who actually have some control over all of this & what they are saying or siding with? What is wrong with that? It is just a TIVO recording

Where is the You Tube beef?

Ok carry on then but dont hold it against us if we pass on some info that seems relevant to the topic.

I mean I agree it is not a financial forum per se' I mean it is Thailand based & tied to some degree.

Hence all the ATM complaint threads. Hey you dont see any you tubes there

Edited December 20, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

I am sure you could exchange gold for fiat in every single country on this planet, every one. You could also barter gold for stuff, bribe people and launder fiat with gold all over the world so I am not sure why you keep trying to say that fiat offers more opportunity.

you should finally learn to read and understand English. that will reduce the bullshit you excrete in this thread and others.

This is the gold thread so you can take your fiat and shove it up your fat as$, that's where its going anyway.

i will take your advice once i will be as poor as you and have to sleep in a 200 Baht per night room getting free blowjobs from cockroaches

[Orion76]

p.s. fair rebuttals are accepted, but youtube clips, citing of gurus as well as mentioning of ricefields will be rejected!

I think Youtube rebuttals like this one are fair game

would you like to know where (i think) you can shove youtube rebuttals?

No I can guess, and I wouldn't want Max Keiser up there

He's a bit far out there but someone who says "Goldman Sachs are scum" as the opening sentence in an interview deserves some respect.

Highly entertaining

[Naam]

p.s. fair rebuttals are accepted, but youtube clips, citing of gurus as well as mentioning of ricefields will be rejected!

I think Youtube rebuttals like this one are fair game

would you like to know where (i think) you can shove youtube rebuttals?

No I can guess, and I wouldn't want Max Keiser up there

He's a bit far out there but someone who says "Goldman Sachs are scum" as the opening sentence in an interview deserves some respect.

i agree!

[crs]

Anyone know the score re. tax on gold and silver bullion buys and sells in Thailand. VAT? Any tax on gains? How to avoid any taxes?

Anyone recommend a bullion/coin retailer?

Cheers.

So 7% VAT on gold I think? Silver? 

[sokal]

I am sure you could exchange gold for fiat in every single country on this planet, every one. You could also barter gold for stuff, bribe people and launder fiat with gold all over the world so I am not sure why you keep trying to say that fiat offers more opportunity.

you should finally learn to read and understand English. that will reduce the bullshit you excrete in this thread and others.

This is the gold thread so you can take your fiat and shove it up your fat as$, that's where its going anyway.

i will take your advice once i will be as poor as you and have to sleep in a 200 Baht per night room getting free blowjobs from cockroaches

haha, you still don't get why I stay in those rooms sometimes, I do it just for the fun of it. I can afford to stay in any dam_n room I want, especially when I have the added security of metal at home.

[basjke]

.

Edited December 20, 2009 by basjke

[basjke]

one can look at USD from different perspectives and at different periods. does it surprise you that today the USD ("back"-calculated on the basis of DEM/FRF) is stronger vs. €UR than in 1993 and stronger vs. JP¥ in 1995?

Can you tell us what you are smoking cos it must be good stuff.Take a look at the link and do some calculation and everybody will know that you are just talking BS.

my only bullshit was that i did not recall the correct years. Prof. Antweiler's website which you quoted uses data is based on N.Y. forex closing which are irrelevant to me as i am a European and i always dealt forex in London or Frankfurt.

USD/DEM

Antweiler 1995/04/03 Mon = ....1.3731

Frankfurt 03-04-1995 = ............1.3632

Friday 18-12-2009 = ...............1.3636

Conversion Table: USD to DEM (Interbank rate)

You have selected a currency which was replaced by the Euro.

Please take a moment to read about the introduction of the Euro

Time period: 01/04/95 to 15/04/95.

Daily averages:

01.04.1995 1.38350

02.04.1995 1.36980

03.04.1995 1.37530

04.04.1995 1.37790

05.04.1995 1.37330

06.04.1995 1.37370

07.04.1995 1.37740

08.04.1995 1.37740

09.04.1995 1.39170

10.04.1995 1.40110

11.04.1995 1.40890

12.04.1995 1.4030

13.04.1995 1.39910

14.04.1995 1.39050

15.04.1995 1.39050

Average (15 days): 1.38621

High: 1.41820

Low: 1.35950

New table

Same table available in HTML, ASCII, CSV.

FXHistory © 1997-2009 by OANDA Corporation

[LivinLOS]

Essentially I dont dissagree with anything you say here in a fundamental sense.. I am also not a card carrying 'gold ammo and xanex' foiler.. in fact I am not even holding more gold then my wife can wear (I am in silver since $12) but..

1. with fiat and its profits

And its profits ?? Meaning 0% interest from banks with no assets that could fold.

one could and can even today buy anything including land, oil, precious metals or any other commodity....

those bugs who wear blinkers claim that fiat is worthless even though i can buy any time tangible assets with the fiat i own.

Depends on what fiat ?? Not buying with my Zimbabwe dollars (I have 100,000,000,000 a 100 trillion !! note on my desk here ) or how about N Korea ?? OK if you say they are just marginal currencies.. What about those holders of common fiat (Marks, Lira, etc) outside of the banking system ?? They can buy 'tangible assets' with their hidden fiat only a decade later ??

besides, once you reach a certain net worth it is something next to impossible to switch to physically non-fiat on which you can lay your hands any time you need it.

Funny you should mention this.. Wont say too much but let me just say that this is something thats being corrected right now. 100% physical with the ease to access of a bank account and soon to be linked to credit cards etc. A fiat alternative hard backed spendable currency !!

EDIT :: had to post in parts.. Stupid quote blocks limit etc.

Edited December 21, 2009 by LivinLOS

[LivinLOS]

that prerogative is reserved for "poor" people. in my [not so] humble opinion the anti-fiat bugs who own papergold are owning nothing but fiat gold. if the crisis (as it looked like in october 2008) had developed even harsher they would have been worse off than those who held cash physically in various currencies.

Agreed paper gold is much more dangerous than most people think IMO.. the GLD ETF is horribly accounted for, Perth are leveraged up to the eyeballs, and anything on the futures or leased situation is purely specualtion.

2. i admit that the outlook seems to be bleak although the gurus and learned experts can't make up their minds and their opinions range from deflation to "zimbabwean" hyperinflation (Marc Faber on USD and USA). i am not a guru and have to adapt to whatever i will face in the future and of course i am willing to adapt. highs or lows in the "markets" do not concern me. my only concern is "do i make a multiple of fiat to pay for the income fraction of my actual fiat expenses which enables me to use the remaining multiple of my income for reinvestment in either fiat or commodities?"

as long as this is the case, meaning that i can buy a goldshop with all the contents of its safes if i have the necessary fiat money, i am content and sleep very well. as simple as that.

A rush to the exits may mean you have to settle for the trinkets rather than the bars, if your timing is off

As I said at the start.. I am not an end of the banking world as we know it kinda guy.. But I dont think for a minute we are out of the woods on this crisis yet, all I think they managed to do was ante up for another round, with even less bank to play with.. No way to win at texas hold em is it ??

[Naam]

A rush to the exits may mean you have to settle for the trinkets rather than the bars, if your timing is off

But I dont think for a minute we are out of the woods on this crisis yet, all I think they managed to do was ante up for another round, with even less bank to play with.. No way to win at texas hold em is it ??

both correct. i am too prepared for another round but expect it much "milder" than the one we have seen and are still partly in.

[Naam]

Essentially I dont dissagree with anything you say here in a fundamental sense.. I am also not a card carrying 'gold ammo and xanex' foiler.. in fact I am not even holding more gold then my wife can wear (I am in silver since $12) but..

1. with fiat and its profits

And its profits ?? Meaning 0% interest from banks with no assets that could fold.

it is correct that i make 0% on my present ~42% cash. however the rest of my fiat holdings yield an average of 9.6%, that's the multiple of my expenditure i was talking about.

one could and can even today buy anything including land, oil, precious metals or any other commodity....

those bugs who wear blinkers claim that fiat is worthless even though i can buy any time tangible assets with the fiat i own.

Depends on what fiat ?? Not buying with my Zimbabwe dollars (I have 100,000,000,000 a 100 trillion !! note on my desk here ) or how about N Korea ?? OK if you say they are just marginal currencies.. What about those holders of common fiat (Marks, Lira, etc) outside of the banking system ?? They can buy 'tangible assets' with their hidden fiat only a decade later ??

Marks and Lira kept still their old value and can be changed into EUR any time the holder pleases.

besides, once you reach a certain net worth it is something next to impossible to switch to physically non-fiat on which you can lay your hands any time you need it.

Funny you should mention this.. Wont say too much but let me just say that this is something thats being corrected right now. 100% physical with the ease to access of a bank account and soon to be linked to credit cards etc. A fiat alternative hard backed spendable currency !!

sounds interesting but does not meet my requirements. access to the precious metals we own is restricted to my wife and myself

[Orion76]

Essentially I dont dissagree with anything you say here in a fundamental sense.. I am also not a card carrying 'gold ammo and xanex' foiler.. in fact I am not even holding more gold then my wife can wear (I am in silver since $12) but..

1. with fiat and its profits

And its profits ?? Meaning 0% interest from banks with no assets that could fold.

Paper can be leveraged 100:1 and then converted to another paper which depreciates at a slower rate than the source paper. By pocketing the difference between the two (multiplied by 100) you compound your net worth much faster than the paper depreciates or than gold is likely to appreciate, especially if you are nimble enough to not impose your long term bearish or bullish biases on your short term positions, for example buying the USD and selling the Euro was hugely profitable for the last few weeks.

0% interest rates and rapidly depreciating currencies are some of the best money making opportunities out there, there is really no way a brick of gold collecting dust under your bed is going to generate those kinds of profits for you.

[Naam]

"Paper can be leveraged 100:1 and then converted to another paper which depreciates at a slower rate than the source paper. By pocketing the difference between the two (multiplied by 100) you compound your net worth much faster than the paper depreciates or than gold is likely to appreciate"

that's one way Orion. personally i hardly ever leverage(d) and if i did, or sometimes still do, than not 100:1 but perhaps 2:1. and even without leverage and a much more prudent and conservative investment approach one could and still can beat the appreciation of gold or any other commodity in the long run. that applies especially to times of crises combined with low interest rates which provide differential yields of up to 15% p.a.

but you and me seem to be talking to people who either can't see the forest because of too many trees or are just ignorant what possibilities exist. well... to each his own

[flying]

COMEX Raises Gold and Silver Margin Requirements, Validates Bull Market Strength

[Lost in LOS]

I don't know all the technical stuff........I don't really care although interesting to read the banter. But I will make a prediction and it is in writing so it can be thrown back at me.

"GOLD WILL GO TO $2,000+" sometime in 2010

U.S.A. credit card is maxed out already

[flying]

I don't know all the technical stuff........I don't really care although interesting to read the banter.

U.S.A. credit card is maxed out already

As for the US credit card......They seem unable to max it since they just keep raising the debt ceiling.

Such is the nature of un-sound currency.

But I agree gold has no reason not to continue in light of that & everything else that has not changed

[Naam]

I don't know all the technical stuff........I don't really care although interesting to read the banter. But I will make a prediction and it is in writing so it can be thrown back at me.

"GOLD WILL GO TO $2,000+" sometime in 2010

please define which dollars. there are many currencies with the name "Dollar"

[khunjake]

Correction to 1085-1090 zone is my best guess and will be adding around there. Run ain't over yet...

In that zone right now alongside HUGE amounts of bearish gold predictions.

[flying]

Correction to 1085-1090 zone is my best guess and will be adding around there. Run ain't over yet...

In that zone right now alongside HUGE amounts of bearish gold predictions.

Well it seems you called that turn quite well.

As it is back up over 1100 now after visiting that range you mentioned.

Silver did very well during that correction

[khunjake]

Correction to 1085-1090 zone is my best guess and will be adding around there. Run ain't over yet...

In that zone right now alongside HUGE amounts of bearish gold predictions.

Well it seems you called that turn quite well.

As it is back up over 1100 now after visiting that range you mentioned.

Silver did very well during that correction

Now for my next hat trick...

Gold should keep going up to 1330-1350 range by March 2010 before topping out for this cycle. At that point, gold should go back into some type of consolidation move for about 18 months or so. Technically gold is still short-term bearish until it can get back over 1120 and if if goes under last week's 1075 low, then something else is going on...

[Lost in LOS]

I don't know all the technical stuff........I don't really care although interesting to read the banter. But I will make a prediction and it is in writing so it can be thrown back at me.

"GOLD WILL GO TO $2,000+" sometime in 2010

please define which dollars. there are many currencies with the name "Dollar"

why Naam, the US dollars that I used to have many of in the bank.