Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[sokal]

gold does actually generate a small income....

no, and it actually costs quite a bunch of money to store.

commercially gold attracts rent - not a huge yield but a yield nonetheless - but as usual, Naam was quicker than me!

deposits have no yield either.

[sokal]

gold does actually generate a small income....

no, and it actually costs quite a bunch of money to store.

commercially gold attracts rent - not a huge yield but a yield nonetheless - but as usual, Naam was quicker than me!

deposits have no yield either.

[Abrak]

deposits have no yield either.

Isnt that the problem with gold though. I mean if paper fiat has no yield and gold has no yield you would imagine that gold would be most attractive and therefore incredibly highly priced relative to fiat. In fact it is difficult to imagine how it could be priced more highly. This would in fact be a 'perfect storm' for gold.

Well it isnt that difficult admittedly. Zero interest rates and increased supply leading to increasing negative real rates. But this is assumption under which an economy fails to function.

And at 'fail to function' scenarios why does gold continue to act as a risk asset when it it should be the 'flight to safety' (in countries where guns are not generally permitted.) All very confusing.

[Naam]

gold does actually generate a small income....

no, and it actually costs quite a bunch of money to store.

commercially gold attracts rent - not a huge yield but a yield nonetheless - but as usual, Naam was quicker than me!

deposits have no yield either.

incorrect info! BRL = 10.75%, ZAR = 9.25%, TRY = 7.50%, AUD = 3.75%, NZD = 3.25%

[sokal]

deposits have no yield either.

incorrect info! BRL = 10.75%, ZAR = 9.25%, TRY = 7.50%, AUD = 3.75%, NZD = 3.25%

I was talking reserve currency deposits.

[Abrak]

Its undervalued but the market still doesn't like it. It has been a dog the last couple months, I was thinking about selling.

Reply they have noting to with the atalll,

dwrAYKJ

[Naam]

deposits have no yield either.

incorrect info! BRL = 10.75%, ZAR = 9.25%, TRY = 7.50%, AUD = 3.75%, NZD = 3.25%

I was talking reserve currency deposits.

who is interested to hold "reserve currency" cash... besides me? by the way, the "reserve currency" provided 30% annualised yield within the last 4 months for those who switched into it from €URos and slightly less for those who switched from GBP.

[sokal]

deposits have no yield either.

incorrect info! BRL = 10.75%, ZAR = 9.25%, TRY = 7.50%, AUD = 3.75%, NZD = 3.25%

I was talking reserve currency deposits.

who is interested to hold "reserve currency" cash... besides me? by the way, the "reserve currency" provided 30% annualised yield within the last 4 months for those who switched into it from €URos and slightly less for those who switched from GBP.

Those where just capital gains, not yield. Gold is up 24.65% in 52 weeks.

[Naam]

deposits have no yield either.

incorrect info! BRL = 10.75%, ZAR = 9.25%, TRY = 7.50%, AUD = 3.75%, NZD = 3.25%

I was talking reserve currency deposits.

who is interested to hold "reserve currency" cash... besides me? by the way, the "reserve currency" provided 30% annualised yield within the last 4 months for those who switched into it from €URos and slightly less for those who switched from GBP.

Those where just capital gains, not yield. Gold is up 24.65% in 52 weeks.

sometimes i can't believe what kind of nonsense i read here. perhaps i should follow Manarak's advice

[flying]

Not gold but Plat.....Whats going on it has been jumping tonight in Asia

Ahhhhhhh hind sight eh? Still remember that brief time not long ago it was less than gold

Man that Platinum is still smoking along isnt it?

Palladium also a 2 year high.

Silver is also on the move & back above $18/oz USD

Gold hanging in

[sokal]

sometimes i can't believe what kind of nonsense i read here. perhaps i should follow Manarak's advice

A reserve currency deposit in a in a Federal reserve primary dealer bank does not yield 30%, if it did, I would be sitting on a beach in Thailand with a Miller Genuine Draft in my hand.

[Naam]

sometimes i can't believe what kind of nonsense i read here. perhaps i should follow Manarak's advice

A reserve currency deposit in a in a Federal reserve primary dealer bank does not yield 30%, if it did, I would be sitting on a beach in Thailand with a Miller Genuine Draft in my hand.

who the EFF talked about "A reserve currency deposit in a Federal reserve primary dealer bank..."? what about revealing to us the wisdom "two plus two equals four?"

[Naam]

Not gold but Plat.....Whats going on it has been jumping tonight in Asia

Ahhhhhhh hind sight eh? Still remember that brief time not long ago it was less than gold

Man that Platinum is still smoking along isnt it? Palladium also a 2 year high. Silver is also on the move & back above $18/oz USD

Gold hanging in

i remember very well when Platinum was for a couple of days lower than Gold. discussed it even with a couple of friends and (unfortunately) did not act. but that's besides the points i want to bring up, point on some of which we both unanimously agree and differ on others.

-we both don't believe in paper precious metals but hold gold physically.

-we both think that precious metals come in handy in times of a "real" crisis.

-i limit the afore mentioned theory to Gold because:

-Silver is too bulky to store.

-in times of a crisis hardly anybody will accept Platinum and nobody will accept Palladium in lieu of payment and that might apply to Silver too.

-holding physical Gold is limited by the availability of safe storage facilities in safe jurisdictions which are easily accessible.

-the quantity of physical Gold that can be moved without any restrictions is rather limited. even those with private Learjets and a Gold quantity that fills a number of wheel barrows have to abandon their wishful wet dream thinking.

your comments please Flying.

[Gambles]

Not gold but Plat.....Whats going on it has been jumping tonight in Asia

Ahhhhhhh hind sight eh? Still remember that brief time not long ago it was less than gold

Man that Platinum is still smoking along isnt it? Palladium also a 2 year high. Silver is also on the move & back above $18/oz USD

Gold hanging in

i remember very well when Platinum was for a couple of days lower than Gold. discussed it even with a couple of friends and (unfortunately) did not act. but that's besides the points i want to bring up, point on some of which we both unanimously agree and differ on others.

-we both don't believe in paper precious metals but hold gold physically.

-we both think that precious metals come in handy in times of a "real" crisis.

-i limit the afore mentioned theory to Gold because:

-Silver is too bulky to store.

-in times of a crisis hardly anybody will accept Platinum and nobody will accept Palladium in lieu of payment and that might apply to Silver too.

-holding physical Gold is limited by the availability of safe storage facilities in safe jurisdictions which are easily accessible.

-the quantity of physical Gold that can be moved without any restrictions is rather limited. even those with private Learjets and a Gold quantity that fills a number of wheel barrows have to abandon their wishful wet dream thinking.

your comments please Flying.

There are too many unanswered questions right now. Personally I don't expect too much from gold this year - I actually expect the theme of weaker risk assets-stronger Dollar- weaker gold to continue to play until mayb ethe end of 2010 (but not in a straight line) and the gold to do well and Dollar to do badly next year. But this is far from being a given.

Reasons for gold-aversion right now:

Globally we're about to enter a battle between the indebted countries' policies of trying to create inflation and the surplus countries' aim of minimising this

This is really a part of a bigger picture battle for global economic hegemony between creditor and debtor nations

Many of the creditor nations have little or no history of holding reserves in gold

Gold is behaving like a risk asset and at current pricing has considerable downside risk - where's the floor for gold? - that many gold investors aren't prepared to take on

A lot of the major transactions in gold may be happening outside the market and outside pricing mechanisms (e.g. PRC govt acquiring gold through domestic production take-off agreements)

All the cahtter about price manipulation

For my part I'm happier to hold cash at these prices, they seem to have got too far ahead of themselves and they seem to be trying to correct. If they can, that could be a real buying opportunity but again remember the risks.

In answer to my own question, where's the floor in gold? In extremis I'd guess between 250-300, in probability 700-850 but with gold the reality may be that no-one knows......

[flying]

i remember very well when Platinum was for a couple of days lower than Gold. discussed it even with a couple of friends and (unfortunately) did not act. but that's besides the points i want to bring up, point on some of which we both unanimously agree and differ on others.

1) -we both don't believe in paper precious metals but hold gold physically.

2) -we both think that precious metals come in handy in times of a "real" crisis.

3) -i limit the afore mentioned theory to Gold because:

4) -Silver is too bulky to store.

5)-in times of a crisis hardly anybody will accept Platinum and nobody will accept Palladium in lieu of payment and that might apply to Silver too.

6)-holding physical Gold is limited by the availability of safe storage facilities in safe jurisdictions which are easily accessible.

7)-the quantity of physical Gold that can be moved without any restrictions is rather limited. even those with private Learjets and a Gold quantity that fills a number of wheel barrows have to abandon their wishful wet dream thinking.

your comments please Flying.

Yes I remember we also spoke of this gold/plat phenomenon before

1) Agree 100%

2) Agreed too but I tend to think they would come in more handy after a real crisis & maybe not to be used during.

3 & 4) I understand your predicament over the bulk of Silver. I fortunately do not have that problem. So I also hold large quantities of the Silver metal. I might also add that *during* a crisis the silver may actually be more useful for barter...If it came to that... Lastly in defense of Silver I still would not be surprised to do better percentage wise with Silver over the long haul. I mean it has the ability to easily double or triple from where I entered.

5) I agree & admit I do not understand Platinum or Palladium at all. But the market seems to like it. I do know of one person who did very well on the last run of Platinum. He sold a very large holding at 2000/oz USD back in 08 right about the time the crisis was starting up. I have not checked if he bought back in later & now holds...

6) Yes true metals are limited for most in line with their ability to store it. You know my background so probably know why I can do well in that area

7) Yes I have wondered about that possibility of some day having to move a quantity of metals. As we have no way of knowing what the future will hold & what laws may be changed or added in regard to the sale or transportation of such.

Then again my situation probably will never require such movement nor such large quantities as you may have

But if I did.... I would probably follow history & remember all metals can easily change shapes & appearance yet retain their value

[sokal]

sometimes i can't believe what kind of nonsense i read here. perhaps i should follow Manarak's advice

A reserve currency deposit in a in a Federal reserve primary dealer bank does not yield 30%, if it did, I would be sitting on a beach in Thailand with a Miller Genuine Draft in my hand.

who the EFF talked about "A reserve currency deposit in a Federal reserve primary dealer bank..."? what about revealing to us the wisdom "two plus two equals four?"

You where the one throwing around 30% yields on deposits. West Pakistan muni bonds don't count as deposits. That must be what your portfolio is loaded with.

[Naam]

sometimes i can't believe what kind of nonsense i read here. perhaps i should follow Manarak's advice

A reserve currency deposit in a in a Federal reserve primary dealer bank does not yield 30%, if it did, I would be sitting on a beach in Thailand with a Miller Genuine Draft in my hand.

who the EFF talked about "A reserve currency deposit in a Federal reserve primary dealer bank..."? what about revealing to us the wisdom "two plus two equals four?"

You where the one throwing around 30% yields on deposits. West Pakistan muni bonds don't count as deposits. That must be what your portfolio is loaded with.

your problem is that you can't read properly and have problems to understand english.

this is what i said: "by the way, the "reserve currency" provided 30% annualised yield within the last 4 months for those who switched into it from €URos and slightly less for those who switched from GBP."

and because you don't understand simple sentences i am translating for you. you brought up the "reserve" currency which (according to you) yields nothing. i answered that those who switched from EUR or GBP into that "reserve" currency made gains / achieved yields of annualised 30% within a period of 4 months.

on this i got your utmost stupid answer

quote: "Those where just capital gains, not yield."

adding irrelevant bullshit: "Gold is up 24.65% in 52 weeks."

[edgarfriendly]

im missing something here,

if any of the esteemed guests had a few hundred thousand baht and a few dozen gold baht, where would you go.

sit still and enjoy it, or swap back and forth at peaks n troughs?

the big Q is...what are the 'obvious signals'

ef

[sokal]

You where the one throwing around 30% yields on deposits. West Pakistan muni bonds don't count as deposits. That must be what your portfolio is loaded with.

your problem is that you can't read properly and have problems to understand english.

this is what i said: "by the way, the "reserve currency" provided 30% annualised yield within the last 4 months for those who switched into it from €URos and slightly less for those who switched from GBP."

and because you don't understand simple sentences i am translating for you. you brought up the "reserve" currency which (according to you) yields nothing. i answered that those who switched from EUR or GBP into that "reserve" currency made gains / achieved yields of annualised 30% within a period of 4 months.

on this i got your utmost stupid answer

quote: "Those where just capital gains, not yield."

adding irrelevant bullshit: "Gold is up 24.65% in 52 weeks."

Price appreciation is not a yield, dividends and interest payments are yields, bond or stock price appreciations are not yields, they are speculative gains. Your example of playing musical chairs with a few currencies and making some money in the process is not a yield.

[simcity]

going back to see what the red and yellow have to said ..........................

[Gambles]

im missing something here,

if any of the esteemed guests had a few hundred thousand baht and a few dozen gold baht, where would you go.

sit still and enjoy it, or swap back and forth at peaks n troughs?

the big Q is...what are the 'obvious signals'

ef

depending on your aims and needs and the totality of your assets and liabilities, if precious in general is an asset class that you're interested in then I'd probably sell the gold and use an active commodity hedge manager like Jeremy Charlesworth to figure a way through all the volatility, twists and turns right now because the signals have ceased to be as obvious as they used to be.......

Edited April 6, 2010 by Gambles

[Naam]

You where the one throwing around 30% yields on deposits. West Pakistan muni bonds don't count as deposits. That must be what your portfolio is loaded with.

your problem is that you can't read properly and have problems to understand english.

this is what i said: "by the way, the "reserve currency" provided 30% annualised yield within the last 4 months for those who switched into it from €URos and slightly less for those who switched from GBP."

and because you don't understand simple sentences i am translating for you. you brought up the "reserve" currency which (according to you) yields nothing. i answered that those who switched from EUR or GBP into that "reserve" currency made gains / achieved yields of annualised 30% within a period of 4 months.

on this i got your utmost stupid answer

quote: "Those where just capital gains, not yield."

adding irrelevant bullshit: "Gold is up 24.65% in 52 weeks."

Price appreciation is not a yield, dividends and interest payments are yields, bond or stock price appreciations are not yields, they are speculative gains. Your example of playing musical chairs with a few currencies and making some money in the process is not a yield.

what is "Gold is up 24.65% in 52 weeks"? a non-speculative gain of a seasoned and successful young know-it-all investor who sleeps once in a while in hotel rooms costing 200 Baht a night?

[manarak]

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Regarding safety of storage, I think Switzerland has got to be the safest country to store and the country where stored gold would be available in case of crisis.

If you don't want to store at a major bank, you can also store in a dedicated vault in one of the high security storage facilities which are not run by banks.

Paper (money, bonds, stocks, etc.) is useful in case a crisis remains financial/economic.

In case of a real crisis, paper becomes worthless without a backup by guns.

[Naam]

Regarding safety of storage, I think Switzerland has got to be the safest country to store and the country where stored gold would be available in case of crisis.

If you don't want to store at a major bank, you can also store in a dedicated vault in one of the high security storage facilities which are not run by banks.

Paper (money, bonds, stocks, etc.) is useful in case a crisis remains financial/economic.

In case of a real crisis, paper becomes worthless without a backup by guns.

i agree. but if Switzerland is far away from your country of residence you have not only have a problem to access your gold but also to move it where you need it.

[Naam]

But if I did.... I would probably follow history & remember all metals can easily change shapes & appearance yet retain their value

check PM!

[Abrak]

The quantity of physical Gold that can be moved without any restrictions is rather limited. even those with private Learjets and a Gold quantity that fills a number of wheel barrows have to abandon their wishful wet dream thinking.

And remember you still have the Lear Jet to sell as well.

[flying]

Regarding safety of storage, I think Switzerland has got to be the safest country to store and the country where stored gold would be available in case of crisis.

If you don't want to store at a major bank, you can also store in a dedicated vault in one of the high security storage facilities which are not run by banks.

Paper (money, bonds, stocks, etc.) is useful in case a crisis remains financial/economic.

In case of a real crisis, paper becomes worthless without a backup by guns.

You know I guess many do not have the options but in these days of safe rooms etc...You would be amazed at what is available to yourself in your own abode & is virtually undetectable. These types of solutions are IMHO way better than any safe that screams I have something in me.. Of course for those who can or want to go to Switzerland I am sure that is a nice option too.. But if it is as you say a crisis then what?

But of course I also agree with your comment on self defense backup

[manarak]

Regarding safety of storage, I think Switzerland has got to be the safest country to store and the country where stored gold would be available in case of crisis.

If you don't want to store at a major bank, you can also store in a dedicated vault in one of the high security storage facilities which are not run by banks.

Paper (money, bonds, stocks, etc.) is useful in case a crisis remains financial/economic.

In case of a real crisis, paper becomes worthless without a backup by guns.

i agree. but if Switzerland is far away from your country of residence you have not only have a problem to access your gold but also to move it where you need it.

Well, if you need to move such an amount of gold, odds are that it will just require to be moved to a nearby vault, possibly within the same floor.

[sokal]

You where the one throwing around 30% yields on deposits. West Pakistan muni bonds don't count as deposits. That must be what your portfolio is loaded with.

your problem is that you can't read properly and have problems to understand english.

this is what i said: "by the way, the "reserve currency" provided 30% annualised yield within the last 4 months for those who switched into it from €URos and slightly less for those who switched from GBP."

and because you don't understand simple sentences i am translating for you. you brought up the "reserve" currency which (according to you) yields nothing. i answered that those who switched from EUR or GBP into that "reserve" currency made gains / achieved yields of annualised 30% within a period of 4 months.

on this i got your utmost stupid answer

quote: "Those where just capital gains, not yield."

adding irrelevant bullshit: "Gold is up 24.65% in 52 weeks."

Price appreciation is not a yield, dividends and interest payments are yields, bond or stock price appreciations are not yields, they are speculative gains. Your example of playing musical chairs with a few currencies and making some money in the process is not a yield.

what is "Gold is up 24.65% in 52 weeks"? a non-speculative gain of a seasoned and successful young know-it-all investor who sleeps once in a while in hotel rooms costing 200 Baht a night?

You brought up your speculative gains so I brought up mine.

[sokal]

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Regarding safety of storage, I think Switzerland has got to be the safest country to store and the country where stored gold would be available in case of crisis.

If you don't want to store at a major bank, you can also store in a dedicated vault in one of the high security storage facilities which are not run by banks.

Paper (money, bonds, stocks, etc.) is useful in case a crisis remains financial/economic.

In case of a real crisis, paper becomes worthless without a backup by guns.

Anyone who will actually need to spend a large portion of their gold in times of crisis is not rich enough to have enough that wouldn't fit in a good retail fireproof safe bolted down in their house.