Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[churchill]

http://trading-trends.com/custom/05152010/PM_GDX.png

Gold miners chart above -

Currency crisis -

Germans lead gold rush frenzy

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4c2e9f3c-5fb9-11...144feab49a.html

Most people seem to be negative the $ gold price at these levels - but all the major currencies seem to be falling against gold - whatever happens short term I think now is a good time to buy /

[Gambles]

http://trading-trends.com/custom/05152010/PM_GDX.png

Gold miners chart above -

Currency crisis -

Germans lead gold rush frenzy

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4c2e9f3c-5fb9-11...144feab49a.html

Most people seem to be negative the $ gold price at these levels - but all the major currencies seem to be falling against gold - whatever happens short term I think now is a good time to buy /

long term yes - I'd expect upside from here but there is still a major risk of a significant gold price pullback if there's any significant liquidity event There are 2 ways to look at this

- it's going up anyway longer term so ignore the vol and use any falls as further buying opps

- sell down and try to pick the right time to buy more

We're taking both stances

At the moment Scott Campbell really advocates the former and Martin Gray the latter

They're both a thousand times smarter than me so my opinion adds nothing. However for the merest scintilla that it might be worth to anyone I'm more with Martin Gray on this although less so than I was before gold decoupled from being inverse Dollar and positively correlated to equities

Edited May 15, 2010 by Gambles

[churchill]

http://trading-trends.com/custom/05152010/PM_GDX.png

Gold miners chart above -

Currency crisis -

Germans lead gold rush frenzy

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4c2e9f3c-5fb9-11...144feab49a.html

Most people seem to be negative the $ gold price at these levels - but all the major currencies seem to be falling against gold - whatever happens short term I think now is a good time to buy /

long term yes - I'd expect upside from here but there is still a major risk of a significant gold price pullback if there's any significant liquidity event There are 2 ways to look at this

- it's going up anyway longer term so ignore the vol and use any falls as further buying opps

- sell down and try to pick the right time to buy more

We're taking both stances

At the moment Scott Campbell really advocates the former and Martin Gray the latter

They're both a thousand times smarter than me so my opinion adds nothing. However for the merest scintilla that it might be worth to anyone I'm more with Martin Gray on this although less so than I was before gold decoupled from being inverse Dollar and positively correlated to equities

" We're taking both stances "

I think a lot of individual investors get pissed off with professionals who can trade in and out of markets in seconds and make big profits - where as normal people have to give notice--- then wait for trades to be approved etc etc and by the time trades are approved they have lost out / either that or they are stuck in funds that take weeks to get in and out of /

Should not markets be opened up so every individual can trade / sell buy on an equal basis

[churchill]

Until or if the US and Europe can get their debts in order

There is no other credible currency ?

Gold Is Finally Transforming Into the Ultimate Currency Once Again

http://www.investingcontrarian.com/global/...ncy-once-again/

[flying]

Most people seem to be negative the $ gold price at these levels - but all the major currencies seem to be falling against gold - whatever happens short term I think now is a good time to buy /

I think anytime you can/could afford to buy was a good time....Long Term

Of course there were times like that short pullback to 1045 that were great gifts.

But availability will dry up soon & so fast it will shock folks. I am talking physical coins here.

[flying]

long term yes - I'd expect upside from here

- sell down and try to pick the right time to buy more

Yes many folks actually do not even buy till it breaks now highs like it just did.

As for sell & pick the time to buy............May work with paper traded gold but physical

I would not attempt it. Soon will come the game of musical chairs & when the music stops many

will have no chair or at best a piece of paper that promises a chair

[flying]

I think a lot of individual investors get pissed off with professionals who can trade in and out of markets in seconds and make big profits - where as normal people have to give notice---

Or normal folks who need to actually provide a product or service.

I know this will come off as sour grapes but it is not.

Also I do not say it as a slight against the many here who trade for a living but.....

So called investing/trading has become a mockery in my not so humble opinion. ( As Naam always says )

Partly because of the deceptive practices that we all know occur now with the too big too fail...But also the millions of day traders.

They do not add squat to the economy, They in the end only seem to add volatility. The market is nothing more than a glorified casino. Yes I know it always was but it has grown more & more useless IMO

Yes I know liquidity etc etc,,,, But all these in & outs ....do they provide liquidity? Yes but volatility 10x that when they throw the markets into spins constantly. Taking good companies down with it.

Is it fair to the companies that actually produce useful goods to have their valuation in a constant flux?

The housing bubble was bad but I can only imagine if daily appraisers walked the streets re-valuing the homes on a minute by minute basis.

Pre-internet trading folks would buy shares as intention of investing in a company that had good reason to invest in. They would put it in their safety boxes & check from time to time how the company was doing. That was liquidity companies could use. Seems not so these days.

Just my opinion but the markets are FUBAR & overcrowded with gamblers. Many get rich & many more want to do the same.

They produce squat but place large bets daily & close them daily. Taking money out.

Just seems they are in the end killing all the horses they want to bet on.

Before anyone says it.....Yes like I said I know it was always a casino. But these days it is a casino hyped on Red Bull & Crack Meth.I wish it would drop dead of an overdose.

[Gambles]

http://trading-trends.com/custom/05152010/PM_GDX.png

Gold miners chart above -

Currency crisis -

Germans lead gold rush frenzy

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4c2e9f3c-5fb9-11...144feab49a.html

Most people seem to be negative the $ gold price at these levels - but all the major currencies seem to be falling against gold - whatever happens short term I think now is a good time to buy /

long term yes - I'd expect upside from here but there is still a major risk of a significant gold price pullback if there's any significant liquidity event There are 2 ways to look at this

- it's going up anyway longer term so ignore the vol and use any falls as further buying opps

- sell down and try to pick the right time to buy more

We're taking both stances

At the moment Scott Campbell really advocates the former and Martin Gray the latter

They're both a thousand times smarter than me so my opinion adds nothing. However for the merest scintilla that it might be worth to anyone I'm more with Martin Gray on this although less so than I was before gold decoupled from being inverse Dollar and positively correlated to equities

" We're taking both stances "

I think a lot of individual investors get pissed off with professionals who can trade in and out of markets in seconds and make big profits - where as normal people have to give notice--- then wait for trades to be approved etc etc and by the time trades are approved they have lost out / either that or they are stuck in funds that take weeks to get in and out of /

Should not markets be opened up so every individual can trade / sell buy on an equal basis

I hear what you're saying but I don't think that this can ever be a level playing field - all the propr desks and trading floors and full-time money managers have the odds stacked in their favour; however much of what is generated is appropriated by the big banks for themselves....there are a great many things about the invstment world that should be different - I spend a significant proportion of my time trying to knock down some of the walls with varying degrees of success and self-inflicted headaches....sadly, it says a lot about this industry that GS still have any clients left at all despite the obvious contempt that they have for their clients but maybe that's too true of all business attitudes these days - such a sthe fact that Ryanair apparently refer to the passengers who pay their wages as SLC (self-loading cargo) or Ford reportedly deciding that the extra deaths caused by the exploding Pinto petrol tank would cost less than the cost of re-designing the model....small businesses generally have to respect their clients and that's part of the culture - once businesses go multi-national and certainly once they go public this ethos seems to disappear. In general this seems to be as true of the investment industry as any other today and it's as offensive as it is depressing

[Gambles]

Until or if the US and Europe can get their debts in order

There is no other credible currency ?

Gold Is Finally Transforming Into the Ultimate Currency Once Again

http://www.investingcontrarian.com/global/...ncy-once-again/

but you can't really use gold as a currency (nor RMB for that matter) but it's a very valid alternative investment currency - to me it all comes down now to the liquidity dissipation risk - how fall would gold fall in a liquidity crisis and how inevitable is such a crisis? Your answer to that should probably dictate whether to increase/hold/sell down looking to buy back cheaper

[Gambles]

long term yes - I'd expect upside from here

- sell down and try to pick the right time to buy more

Yes many folks actually do not even buy till it breaks now highs like it just did.

As for sell & pick the time to buy............May work with paper traded gold but physical

I would not attempt it. Soon will come the game of musical chairs & when the music stops many

will have no chair or at best a piece of paper that promises a chair

also could work with miners

[Gambles]

I think a lot of individual investors get pissed off with professionals who can trade in and out of markets in seconds and make big profits - where as normal people have to give notice---

Or normal folks who need to actually provide a product or service.

I know this will come off as sour grapes but it is not.

Also I do not say it as a slight against the many here who trade for a living but.....

So called investing/trading has become a mockery in my not so humble opinion. ( As Naam always says )

Partly because of the deceptive practices that we all know occur now with the too big too fail...But also the millions of day traders.

They do not add squat to the economy, They in the end only seem to add volatility. The market is nothing more than a glorified casino. Yes I know it always was but it has grown more & more useless IMO

Yes I know liquidity etc etc,,,, But all these in & outs ....do they provide liquidity? Yes but volatility 10x that when they throw the markets into spins constantly. Taking good companies down with it.

Is it fair to the companies that actually produce useful goods to have their valuation in a constant flux?

The housing bubble was bad but I can only imagine if daily appraisers walked the streets re-valuing the homes on a minute by minute basis.

Pre-internet trading folks would buy shares as intention of investing in a company that had good reason to invest in. They would put it in their safety boxes & check from time to time how the company was doing. That was liquidity companies could use. Seems not so these days.

Just my opinion but the markets are FUBAR & overcrowded with gamblers. Many get rich & many more want to do the same.

They produce squat but place large bets daily & close them daily. Taking money out.

Just seems they are in the end killing all the horses they want to bet on.

Before anyone says it.....Yes like I said I know it was always a casino. But these days it is a casino hyped on Red Bull & Crack Meth.I wish it would drop dead of an overdose.

doesn't seem like sour grapes to me

you have to consider the utility of any business or practice in relation to the value and profits generated......however the casino business has also boomed and is one of the mpost reliable ways to make consistent profits (unless you over-extend with borrowed money) - isn't this because there's a demand for get rich quick dreams anbd while that happens there'll always be someone to exploit that?

The uglier that human nature gets, the uglier the responses to that will be and TBH on a global level, I really have no idea what to do about that but maybe the next gen of Finance MBA whizzkids won't even consider it as an issue? That would be the real tragedy

[Naam]

What would be the consequences?

the consequences are that those who spread this rumour will be called morons next week by people who can think rationally. those who read "zerohedge" and give its fairy tales only the tiniest benefit of doubt might be called morons too. and if the latter are not called publicly morons people might think they are morons.

Someone who does not take all considerations into account could also be called a moron? Perhaps. Regards.

have you taken into consideration that your wife, girlfriend, boyfriend might kill you tonight with an axe although there is no axe in your house or in your garden shed? if not, does that make you a moron? according to you... perhaps

just the mentioning "D.B. (Deutsche Bank) has received containers with new currency" belongs to "Fairy Tales from Absurdistan" which only complete ignorants believe in as DB is a private bank and its financial clout and importance compared to all other german banks is miniscule. that alone is proof that the writer is not a regular but a certified moron².

edited for addendum: will check now in my garden shed where the axe is and then i will question my wife.

latest news from Tchermanny on its new kurrenzy

All over Tchermanny the new currency, named "YBM" (Yewro Buster Mark), is handed out directly from thousands of containers to the public. to facilitate the procedure Tchermanns are not required to turn in their EURos in exchange as the € was declared "pecunia non grata" and "sine valuta" within Tchermann borders.

Morons (e.g. Naam) who doubted the exchange will -by imperial order of Empress Angela- be stripped of their German citizenship and expelled to third world countries such as the Greatest Nation on Earth™, Afghanistan, Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and to remote islands such as Solomon, Christmas, Fiji and the United Kingdom. as an additional punishment they will not be allowed to pay any direct or indirect taxes into the coffers of Mr. Schäuble.

Knowledgeable persons like Churchill and Teletiger will be invited to work as lecturers (teaching "Golden Economics") in renowned Tchermann universities and paid in gold ingots (not less than 100 grams per working day).

Edited May 16, 2010 by Naam

[PCA]

What would be the consequences?

the consequences are that those who spread this rumour will be called morons next week by people who can think rationally. those who read "zerohedge" and give its fairy tales only the tiniest benefit of doubt might be called morons too. and if the latter are not called publicly morons people might think they are morons.

Someone who does not take all considerations into account could also be called a moron? Perhaps. Regards.

have you taken into consideration that your wife, girlfriend, boyfriend might kill you tonight with an axe although there is no axe in your house or in your garden shed? if not, does that make you a moron? according to you... perhaps

just the mentioning "D.B. (Deutsche Bank) has received containers with new currency" belongs to "Fairy Tales from Absurdistan" which only complete ignorants believe in as DB is a private bank and its financial clout and importance compared to all other german banks is miniscule. that alone is proof that the writer is not a regular but a certified moron².

edited for addendum: will check now in my garden shed where the axe is and then i will question my wife.

latest news from Tchermanny on its new kurrenzy

All over Tchermanny the new currency, named "YBM" (Yewro Buster Mark), is handed out directly from thousands of containers to the public. to facilitate the procedure Tchermanns are not required to turn in their EURos in exchange as the € was declared "pecunia non grata" and "sine valuta" within Tchermann borders.

Morons (e.g. Naam) who doubted the exchange will -by imperial order of Empress Angela- be stripped of their German citizenship and expelled to third world countries such as the Greatest Nation on Earth™, Afghanistan, Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and to remote islands such as Solomon, Christmas, Fiji and the United Kingdom. as an additional punishment they will not be allowed to pay any direct or indirect taxes into the coffers of Mr. Schäuble.

Knowledgeable persons like Churchill and Teletiger will be invited to work as lecturers (teaching "Golden Economics") in renowned Tchermann universities and paid in gold ingots (not less than 100 grams per working day).

[churchill]

Bahrain Assesses Euro Crisis as Gulf States Work on Currency

"Bahrain, one of four Gulf Arab states working to set up a single currency, is monitoring concern over the viability of the euro, Mohammed bin Essa Al-Khalifa chief executive of the country’s Economic Development Board said.

“It is still a long-term goal and the concept is still in our sights, but we are watching as the euro goes through a crisis,” said Sheikh Mohammed bin Essa Al-Khalifa, head of Bahrain’s Economic Development Board in e-mailed comment. “What we need in the Gulf is a currency with sound fundamentals.” Al- Khalifa spoke at an International Institute for Strategic Studies conference in Bahrain"

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-1...n-currency.html

Backed by Gold ?

"Crude oil continues to be pummeled both by the one-two punch of the stronger Dollar and the fading equity markets. It dropped below $72 today and looks poised to head low enough to test critical chart support near $70 – $69. If it fails there, it will be at $65 before you can change your socks. At least drivers and transportation related firms are smiling although how would you like to be member of OPEC trading your valuable black gold for paper currencies which are falling apart? Something tells me that a great deal of gold buying is coming out of the middle East these days."

http://jsmineset.com/2010/05/14/hourly-act...trader-dan-272/

[badge]

Most commodities(and securities/capital markets for that matter) tend to experience vertical blow outs during the dying days of their hysterias/bubbles/manias etc. see Gold in '73 and Gold and Silver in '79/'80 for example. I dont think the current hysteria is at fever pitch yet.

[crs]

What are good ways for foreigners living in Thailand to invest in gold? Could anyone give examples or how they buy,sell/trade precious metals? is it, for example, possible to buy bonds from banks or online? Thanks

http://ausiris.co.th/en/index.php

[churchill]

Get ready for IMF Gold sales !

Brown's heading to US for IMF role

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/top-stories/2...15875-22261637/

[flying]

Short & Sweet

[churchill]

Specter of Inflation Haunts Europe

If Europe's single currency is really to be saved, fundamental reforms have to follow the emergency bailout by euro-zone members. The biggest danger comes, however, from the European Central Bank, which has given up its role as the protector of price stability. The risk of inflation is increasing. By SPIEGEL staff.

It's Friday morning, the day after Ascension Day, which is a public holiday in Germany, and most people in the country are taking the day off to enjoy a long weekend. On top of that, it's raining in Munich, making this an ideal morning to sleep in late. But the premises are already jam-packed -- yet again -- at Pro Aurum, a private trading house for gold and other precious metals. Business has been booming for a week now.

Clients receive coffee and newspapers to make their wait more pleasant. They all want to buy gold bars or coins, Canadian Maple Leafs, Australian Kangaroo Nuggets and Austrian Vienna Philharmonic coins -- anything, as long as it's made of gold and will retain its value.

Pro Aurum boss Robert Hartmann and his 45 employees at the Munich headquarters have barely been able to handle the rush. Hartmann even had to shut down the online shop temporarily. "We are all working to the hilt," he says.

Hartmann has experienced a similar run in the past -- in September 2008, when the Lehman Brothers investment bank went bankrupt. This time, however, as a result of the euro crisis, even people who previously paid no attention to precious metals are taking an interest in gold, he notes. Many feel very unsettled, some are even "slightly panicky," he says.

Gold Endures

Pro Aurum's clients are taking refuge in a form of currency that people have trusted for ages. The Reich mark, the East German mark, the German mark, the euro: Paper currencies may come and go, but gold endures. Or so they tell themselves, studiously ignoring the fact that the value of gold can also fluctuate enormously.

The precious metal has never been so coveted. Within a year, the price has soared by one-third, and over the past few weeks it has climbed from one record to the next. The price of gold hit a new high in euros on Monday, trading at over €1,000 a troy ounce. The euro also fell to a new four-year low against the dollar Monday, slumping to around $1.23.

The price of gold is an indicator of people's lack of trust in their currency. And these doubts about the stability of the euro increases virtually every day -- despite, or perhaps precisely because of, the recent spectacular bailout of the European common currency system.

The €750 billion ($950 billion) rescue package has calmed financial markets, at least for the time being. Stock markets have recovered and risk premiums on government bonds from the southern euro states have declined.

... continued http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe...,695111,00.html

[churchill]

JP Morgan: Gold is now reasonable to invest into

The JP Morgan team now smarting under the tremendous publicity it has received over its Silver trades have started to be more reasonable as they put out reports covering the Gold markets.

Not withstanding the dynamite they are standing on, JP Morgan suggests that Gold may be on the verge of a break away rally soon.

Full report reproduced here:

A German banker once told us that gold normally trades like a

commodity. However, when investors lose confidence in currencies,

because the pool of gold is so much smaller than the pool of

currencies, demand for gold can effectively become unlimited. We

believe the European version of “QE” is generating serious currency

worries and led today to the breakout of the gold price above the

previous intraday high at $1,226/oz.

• We see this breakout as significant: The market might have welcomed

the European’s latest solution to the Greek crisis with a weaker gold

price. If the gold price had fallen, bears could have pointed to a “double

top” in the chart, and this could have contributed to a period of weakness

for the metal.

• Gold bullion or the equities? We feel investors should have the

ability to participate in both markets. When gold is performing well,

the gold equities offer leverage. Today while the gold price moved up by

2.4%, the gold equity index (HUI) appreciated by 6%. However, if gold

is simply moving sideways, the gold equities can lag the metal.

Additionally, if gold (or any commodity) is perceived to be spiking

higher, it’s quite likely that the equities will lag the commodity price.

With the 1979/80 spike to $800/oz being in excess of $2,000/oz in

today’s dollars, we feel we have some time before this becomes an issue.

• Of our coverage list, Overweight gold stock Kinross was up 7.7%,

Goldcorp +6.3%, Newmont +4.9%, Barrick +4.5% in today’s trade.

• We continue to see silver as “high beta” gold. Silver itself was up

4.4%, and our favorite silver equity, Silver Wheaton, was 8.1% higher on

the day

• We see gold as an insurance policy for portfolios. We do not wish for

very high precious metals prices because that would indicate serious

trouble for other parts of the global economy. However we continue to

encourage investors to have some precious metals (or equities) in their

portfolios as a real hedge that is less likely to draw the negative attention

that short positions did in late 2008. And shouldn’t require government

backing if the writer of the hedge instrument can’t perform.

• We continue to like our Overweight gold and silver equities.

Newmont (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), Kinross (KGC), Barrick (ABX)

and our silver pick Silver Wheaton (SLW). Note we wrote in a little

more depth on the precious sector last night in a note titled “Looking

forward and wrapping models for Q1 results.”

http://www.investingcontrarian.com/global/...to-invest-into/

[churchill]

and so in today's market - how many central bankers are selling gold ?

Russia/China / India Buying

Europe not selling

S/E Asia Buying

Mid/East Buying

Gold prices .. ?

[churchill]

http://trading-trends.com/custom/05152010/PM_GDX.png

Gold miners chart above -

Currency crisis -

Germans lead gold rush frenzy

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4c2e9f3c-5fb9-11...144feab49a.html

Most people seem to be negative the $ gold price at these levels - but all the major currencies seem to be falling against gold - whatever happens short term I think now is a good time to buy /

long term yes - I'd expect upside from here but there is still a major risk of a significant gold price pullback if there's any significant liquidity event There are 2 ways to look at this

- it's going up anyway longer term so ignore the vol and use any falls as further buying opps

- sell down and try to pick the right time to buy more

We're taking both stances

At the moment Scott Campbell really advocates the former and Martin Gray the latter

They're both a thousand times smarter than me so my opinion adds nothing. However for the merest scintilla that it might be worth to anyone I'm more with Martin Gray on this although less so than I was before gold decoupled from being inverse Dollar and positively correlated to equities

" We're taking both stances "

I think a lot of individual investors get pissed off with professionals who can trade in and out of markets in seconds and make big profits - where as normal people have to give notice--- then wait for trades to be approved etc etc and by the time trades are approved they have lost out / either that or they are stuck in funds that take weeks to get in and out of /

Should not markets be opened up so every individual can trade / sell buy on an equal basis

I hear what you're saying but I don't think that this can ever be a level playing field - all the propr desks and trading floors and full-time money managers have the odds stacked in their favour; however much of what is generated is appropriated by the big banks for themselves....there are a great many things about the invstment world that should be different - I spend a significant proportion of my time trying to knock down some of the walls with varying degrees of success and self-inflicted headaches....sadly, it says a lot about this industry that GS still have any clients left at all despite the obvious contempt that they have for their clients but maybe that's too true of all business attitudes these days - such a sthe fact that Ryanair apparently refer to the passengers who pay their wages as SLC (self-loading cargo) or Ford reportedly deciding that the extra deaths caused by the exploding Pinto petrol tank would cost less than the cost of re-designing the model....small businesses generally have to respect their clients and that's part of the culture - once businesses go multi-national and certainly once they go public this ethos seems to disappear. In general this seems to be as true of the investment industry as any other today and it's as offensive as it is depressing

Computers Vs Common Sense

Who will win ?

Computers - They cannot loose

Is this what Man Ah do ? So a good place to invest ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/all-you-n...ng-and-shutdown

[edgarfriendly]

i just spent the day wandering around siam and sri nakarin.

no shops trading gold at all, plenty of chains n rings available, but the main ingot traders' doors are shut! and until at least wednesday is 'the word'

hmmmm.

19000

ef

[badge]

Computers Vs Common Sense

Who will win ?

Computers - They cannot loose

Is this what Man Ah do ? So a good place to invest ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/all-you-n...ng-and-shutdown

MAN's AHL fund isnt a HFT'er, no. Its a managed futures fund, but it is completely algorithm driven/black box.

I follow both the company and the AHL fund. AHLs weekly performance updates are issued at teh close of LSE each Tuesday. A daily performance 'estimate' is provided via a link on their homepage, which also has all the company's offerings.

These graphs so some relative performance over previous years.

[sokal]

Until or if the US and Europe can get their debts in order

There is no other credible currency ?

Gold Is Finally Transforming Into the Ultimate Currency Once Again

http://www.investingcontrarian.com/global/...ncy-once-again/

but you can't really use gold as a currency (nor RMB for that matter) but it's a very valid alternative investment currency - to me it all comes down now to the liquidity dissipation risk - how fall would gold fall in a liquidity crisis and how inevitable is such a crisis? Your answer to that should probably dictate whether to increase/hold/sell down looking to buy back cheaper

Schiff figures the liquidity crisis was in 2008. I tend to agree. The banks are already bailed out, rates are at 0% and the FASB rules are now marked to myth. How can a liquidity crisis happen under these conditions ?

We might go strait into a currency crisis from here.

[Gambles]

Computers Vs Common Sense

Who will win ?

Computers - They cannot loose

Is this what Man Ah do ? So a good place to invest ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/all-you-n...ng-and-shutdown

MAN's AHL fund isnt a HFT'er, no. Its a managed futures fund, but it is completely algorithm driven/black box.

I follow both the company and the AHL fund. AHLs weekly performance updates are issued at teh close of LSE each Tuesday. A daily performance 'estimate' is provided via a link on their homepage, which also has all the company's offerings.

These graphs so some relative performance over previous years.

Correct Badge,

Broadly there's a conceptual similarity here - both use computer models to interpret short term inputs. What's impressive about AHL is the record dating back almost 25 years and the quality of Man as a manager; you need to have proper structures and risk-management in place. There are plenty of managed futures funds out there but to be honest there are only a handful that satisfy our due diligence. We've been dealing with Man for the best part of 15 years and the others that we'd use these days would be AHL founder David Harding's 'new' company, Winton and long established US CTA, Eckhardt. I'm very suspicious about many of the others. For along time I coulod never understand why all these new blackbox funds would appear with phenomenal track records, take in money and then start to do much worse. I naively assumed that it was a scaleability problem but I recently heard a disturbing although all too plausible explanation:

Imagine you're starting a new blackbox investment co

You set up 100 platforms making trades with maybe $ 1000 invested in each

by the end of the first year maybe 50 are doing well and 50 are doing badly

so you close the 50 bad ones and then at the end of year 2 of the remaining maybe 25 are doing well and 25 are doing badly

by the end of year 5 you have 3 strongly performing models that are attracting investors, have a 5 year track record but don't represent an accurate reflection of the manager's ability to manage money (irrespective of how good or bad a manager they really are, being able to ignore their losing trades massivelt overstates their real performance).

So, rtaher boringly, we tend to restrict ourselves to the guys that we know are real rather than rushing to the latest gadget or gizmo. I don't know the full ins and outs of tradebot; it may be the next big thing but until we can know that it is, then sticking with AHL suits me just fine for now.

Not that AHL wins all the time; it doesn't. 08 was great but last year was a difficult time although there are reasons for that which indicate that now might be a very good time

Dear all,

Please find below the latest update from MBMG International.

Two weeks ago during his trip to Bangkok, MBMG's affiliated portfolio manager Scott Campbell made a small allocation to an ETN (exchange traded note) on the VIX (The S&P Volatility Index) tracking stockmarket volatility. At this time market volatility was down towards historic lows and to Scott seemed like it could only go one way and boy has it! The Greek crisis, NYSE 10 minute collapse and the bouncy start to this week has seen implied and actual volatility double, yielding a very nice quick profit for the master.

This echoed recent comments by Pure Capital's Anthony Limbrick - "we think there is a massive opportunity right now in the things we trade, namely kurtosis, serial correlation and volatility. It may require moving one’s point of perception in order to see this. We had one of the largest rallies in implied volatility and volatility into October 2008. We also saw one of the biggest moves in terms of kurtosis into October 2008, while serial correlation made a high in the equity markets in March 2009. All of these things peaked almost around the same time, and from that point it has been essentially a crash in those measures. We are focused on this as we trade in this sector, but this is probably not something that a lot of people think about. We have had the biggest monthly fall in implied volatility in history, one of the biggest falls in kurtosis in history, and serial correlation is now at the bottom end of historical ranges."

In plain English this means that in October 2008 assets prices moved more during each minute of each day than they ever had done before; assets, funds and businesses failed at a rate like they never had before and less than 6 months later directional trends reached an all time high. These conditions were very supportive for managers and funds like Man AHL Diversified.Since then these measures have crashed with volatility falling to the low levels that enticed Scott back into the markets, virtually nothing failing and clear trends disappearing. This has clearly been bad for these types of funds -

"a very well-known CTA fund run by one of the world’s largest asset managers based in London, is a good example of a fund that has not done very well over the last year. If you look at how they invest, you would probably find that they also trade a lot of these quantitative measures I mentioned before as well. As I said this fund has been subject to one of the nastiest environments in history for their strategy. The quant measures I have been talking about, they are now near the bottom end of historical ranges. Therefore, we strongly believe that one of the biggest opportunities of the next year to two years is to be long serial correlation, long volatility to a lesser extent, as that is not quite as cheap, also long kurtosis as well."

This message is clear to us and alongside Scott buying vol could indicate that Man AHL is about to yield rich pickings while equity, property and commodity markets face the risk of implosion, providing the volatility and kurtosis -

"How would this crash correct itself? Well, In terms of the measures I had mentioned, global equities look cheap, that is in terms of volatility, kurtosis and serial correlation, but also gold and US treasuries look very cheap. That in fact means that there could be very, very large moves coming in those markets. We don't know the direction, but we do have a strong belief in these markets starting some time over the next couple of months. We believe that is a significant opportunity.indication there could be big moves to come in these markets starting some time over the next couple of months. We believe that is a significant opportunity."

So a strong move in these markets is expected but in equities, commodities and property this is more likely to be to the downside. While there are always pockets of value, the Dow Jones in general needs to fall not juts below 10,000 but actually below 6,000 before it's a clear sign to return to traditional long only equity exposure. We see this taking place in reasonably short order considering the scale of the move. Against such a backdrop a very significant double (or possibly low triple) digit rise in Man AHL might be expected.

Long vol, kurtosis and trends; short equities, commodities and property - this could be the standout trade of the next few years, putting even Scott's stunningly successful VIX trade in the shade....

Enjoy your day!

Once again, very best regards,

MBMG International

Please Note: While every effort has been made to ensure that the information contained herein is correct, MBMG International cannot be held responsible for any errors that may occur. The views of the contributors may not necessarily reflect the house view of MBMG International. Views and opinions expressed herein may change with market conditions and should not be used in isolation.

[Gambles]

Until or if the US and Europe can get their debts in order

There is no other credible currency ?

Gold Is Finally Transforming Into the Ultimate Currency Once Again

http://www.investingcontrarian.com/global/...ncy-once-again/

but you can't really use gold as a currency (nor RMB for that matter) but it's a very valid alternative investment currency - to me it all comes down now to the liquidity dissipation risk - how fall would gold fall in a liquidity crisis and how inevitable is such a crisis? Your answer to that should probably dictate whether to increase/hold/sell down looking to buy back cheaper

Schiff figures the liquidity crisis was in 2008. I tend to agree. The banks are already bailed out, rates are at 0% and the FASB rules are now marked to myth. How can a liquidity crisis happen under these conditions ?

We might go strait into a currency crisis from here.

liquidity is now being manaufactured at the sovereign level but at some point default becomes a more attractive policy option than hyper-inflation

I don't see sovereign default without attendant liquidity risks. I think that Schiff is focusing on the banking sector liquidity (not knocking Schiff - knowledgeable guy and incredibly helpful and polite in my very limited dealings with him).

[badge]

Otehr than HFTs and AHL both use computer programs, there are no further similarities between them, as IM sure you're aware.

AHLs April performance details:

The AHL Diversified Program recorded a gain of 2.32% in April

as trends were captured in both ‘risk’ and ‘safe haven’ assets,

producing gains.

Economic releases and corporate earnings continued to lend

support to the economic recovery theme however, markets failed

to cope with the uncertainty over the resolution of the Greek

sovereign debt crisis and the potential for the crisis to be repeated

in other European countries. As a result market movements

seemed less correlated.

During this trading environment, AHL made gains across most

sectors. In particular, long positions in European bonds accrued

strong gains as prices surged over the Greek debt crisis. The

resulting risk aversion also assisted the precious metals sector,

with long positions in gold and silver accruing notable gains.

Further gains were driven by two main themes: currency trading

and long stock positions. In currency trading profits were made

by long positions in AUD against USD as the Reserve Bank of

Australia raised rates early in the month. Positions in BRL versus

USD proved profitable.

The stock sector added further gains as rising equity markets

proved beneficial to long positions in the US in particular. Strong

first quarter earnings in the US combined with solid economic

data releases generally drove gains. Notable returns included long

trades in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100.

In Energy trading, losses were mainly attributable to short

positions in natural gas trading as gas prices recovered slightly.

Further losses were experienced by short GBP versus USD trades

as the British pound rebounded after data showed a narrowing of

UK’s trade deficit in February.

Monthly summary report as at 26 April 2010

Historical performance*

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD

2007 NA NA NA NA NA NA -5.81% -3.85% 5.28% 7.72% 4.06% -4.30% 2.27%

2008 5.78% 2.77% 4.29% 1.07% 3.19% 1.22% -5.71% -3.69% 0.02% 16.37% 1.23% 5.50% 35.10%

2009 -1.78% 0.14% -5.08% -3.80% 0.28% -3.45% 1.07% -0.98% 2.66% -1.56% 2.46% -5.74% -15.05%

2010 -1.97% -0.57% 5.87% 2.32% 5.59%

[flying]

For the tech minded ...

gold is in classic cup and handle formation targeting $1450

[flying]