Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[gregb]

Perhaps you could educate those of us who are not such experts on where and how to buy these bonds that double , triple and more ? Why not start a thread ?

it is useless to start a thread which deals with water under the bridge or snow that thawed last spring. besides, bonds which multiplied in value have been discussed last year in the thread "financial crisis". but the only interested party i remember was TV-member Abrak. nearly everybody else was most of the time busy lamenting, describing the apocalypse which was around the corner to hit all of us and looking out for bakeries which were for sale for a single gold coin. actually we face the same situation now, except that the good times doubling, tripling and multiplying your bets are over till we face the next crisis which may occur next week or in twenty years. now we are back to moderate 5-15% yields p.a. depending how much risk one is willing to take.

But the important to remember about gold is that a financial idiot such as myself, who was probably one of the few people who actually managed to lose money on tech stocks during the dot com era, is managing to profit handsomely on gold.

As Naam says, you can get yields on anything if you are willing to take risks. Gold is essentially risk free though if you understand anything at all about energy depletion and the relation between energy and economic growth. Gold is the great equalizer that allows even morons to protect their wealth. And in an era of decline, you don't have to make money, you just have to lose less than the guy next to you.

As times continue those chances to profit on bonds are going to get fewer and fewer and entail more and more risk, but gold will simply continue to power its way through the collapse. The next 30 years are going to look nothing like the last 30. I'll stick with gold and let the gamblers take their chances with bonds thank you very much.

I know people who have bragged they made a fortune in Vegas too. That has never been me either.

[badge]

As demand for gold investment now outstrips the demand for anything sensible(jewelry/industry[parp!]), it would seem 'the gamblers' are taking their chances on gold.

'Bonds' is a very broad term - they constitute by far the largest, most diverse capital market there is.

On Corporate bond performance last year; think of a mid-sized US company, its short dated bonds likely rose 200%/300% from the lows of '08-'09.

I recently read of Las Vegas Sands bonds hitting a low of 7c on the $ in '08; they're trading at 91c now.

Edited September 7, 2010 by badge

[Naam]

As Naam says, you can get yields on anything if you are willing to take risks.

1. Gold is essentially risk free though if you understand anything at all about energy depletion and the relation between energy and economic growth.

2. Gold is the great equalizer that allows even morons to protect their wealth. And in an era of decline, you don't have to make money, you just have to lose less than the guy next to you.

3. As times continue those chances to profit on bonds are going to get fewer and fewer and entail more and more risk, but gold will simply continue to power its way through the collapse.

4. The next 30 years are going to look nothing like the last 30. I'll stick with gold and let the gamblers take their chances with bonds thank you very much.

1. history shows clearly that no investment is "essentially risk free". if gold was risk free all the "morons" who invest in real estate, shares, bonds, pussy, regenerative energies and you name it would buy gold... assuming they had some wealth to protect. my questions are "how come only a tiny minority believes in risk free gold? is it because they are all morons? or is it that they have realised that gold (as does any other investment) fluctuates in value?"

2. how does one pay for living expenses. with "less losses"?

3. "gold will power its way..." = an assumption. "this saturday i will take the Mrs to Kuala Lumpur" = an assumption. the weather forecast says "clear skies, it will not rain today" = an assumption. pilot: "ladies and gentlemen in a few minutes we'll be landing at Suvanaswampy airport" = an assumption.

4. how old are you Greg? is your life expectancy another 30 years?

[gregb]

I'll take these 1 at a time, because they quite clearly show we are approaching this from entirely different perspectives. The answers I believe will illuminate the very core of our differences.

1. history shows clearly that no investment is "essentially risk free". if gold was risk free all the "morons" who invest in real estate, shares, bonds, pussy, regenerative energies and you name it would buy gold... assuming they had some wealth to protect.

I've thought about this. I think it is because very few people are willing to accept the logical conclusion that energy depletion means the end of economic growth and collapse of our civilization. Everyone assumes "they" will come up with something that will save us, or that this is just a blip on a continuous upward trend. The myth of progress is very strong in our society. Few people are truly willing to accept that belief in progress is as much a religion as belief in the Gods of Olympus, and just as futile. In my opinion, anyone who invests in speculative investments like governments in the existing empire has a very myopic view. One thing history teaches us is that no empire last forever. Ours won't either. I may or may not live to see the day when our current lifestyle has effectively withered away. But the only question is time, and I intend to make sure I give the best opportunities to my children that I can. There is no doubt it will happen, and that gold will almost certainly be the thing that survives the downfall as it has through several millenia.

2. how does one pay for living expenses. with "less losses"?

By working hard until the day you die. The days when you could retire are long since over. Gold is there to preserve your surplus earnings. People who think they can "invest" for retirement and live off their investments are living in the past.

3. "gold will power its way..." = an assumption. "this saturday i will take the Mrs to Kuala Lumpur" = an assumption. the weather forecast says "clear skies, it will not rain today" = an assumption. pilot: "ladies and gentlemen in a few minutes we'll be landing at Suvanaswampy airport" = an assumption.

A well reasoned assumption to be sure. As are the examples you have given. Everything in life is technically an assumption, but some have higher probabilities of coming true than others. During a collapse of civilization, gold is highly likely to be the only currency left standing. All others rely on a government to give them strength, and strong governments don't survive during periods of catabolic collapse. Until a new equilibrium is reached with world populations dramatically reduced, gold is the only safe bet.

4. how old are you Greg? is your life expectancy another 30 years?

Yes.

[Naam]

2. Naam: how does one pay for living expenses. with "less losses"?

By working hard until the day you die. The days when you could retire are long since over. Gold is there to preserve your surplus earnings. People who think they can "invest" for retirement and live off their investments are living in the past.

i don't know on which planet you live Greg. all what i know is that your reality differs very much from mine.

addendum: the afore-said applies to all your other points too.

Edited September 8, 2010 by Naam

[churchill]

Not wishing to tempt fate but Silver , along with Gold , look good for an upward move /

Silver breaches $20/oz at fix; gold nears record

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/silver-breaches-20-oz-at-fix-gold-nears-record-targetukfocus-6923837b73ba.html?x=0&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

“So, I am still expecting that upside explosion in silver as soon as we get above $20.5 to $21.”

“The action in gold is consistent with what is happening in silver, which also confirms it will break into new high ground as well.”

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/9/8_James_Turk_-_Rare_Trading_Action%2C_Explosion_Imminent.html

[churchill]

Duplicate post /

Edited September 8, 2010 by churchill

[lannarebirth]

1. history shows clearly that no investment is "essentially risk free". if gold was risk free all the "morons" who invest in real estate, shares, bonds, pussy, regenerative energies and you name it would buy gold... assuming they had some wealth to protect. my questions are "how come only a tiny minority believes in risk free gold? is it because they are all morons? or is it that they have realised that gold (as does any other investment) fluctuates in value?"

I'd even settle to be an "Angel Investor" , if you can manage tto get this re-generative pussy idea offf the ground.

[teletiger]

1. history shows clearly that no investment is "essentially risk free". if gold was risk free all the "morons" who invest in real estate, shares, bonds, pussy, regenerative energies and you name it would buy gold... assuming they had some wealth to protect. my questions are "how come only a tiny minority believes in risk free gold? is it because they are all morons? or is it that they have realised that gold (as does any other investment) fluctuates in value?"

I'd even settle to be an "Angel Investor" , if you can manage tto get this re-generative pussy idea offf the ground.

Haha.....The "not quite dead cat bounce".

Herr Naam. The value of gold never changes. All other prices fluctuate against gold.

Regards.

[Naam]

Herr Naam. The value of gold never changes. All other prices fluctuate against gold.

Regards.

sure Sir Tiger. and let's not forget that the earth is flat and -being the center of the universe- the sun rotates around it.

next!

[mania]

As David Rosenberg observes: Did you know … that the gold price has quietly turned in a 16% price advance so far this year and barring a major reversal, this will be the tenth year in a row that the yellow metal has generated a positive “return” for investors. That compares with nine winning years for Treasuries, seven winning years for the broad commodity complex in general, and coming in last, is six for the equity market.

[churchill]

Goldman anticipates QE2 dollar weakness

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/09/338446/goldman-anticipates-qe2-dollar-weakness/

Goldman anticipates $ weakness after $ strength - so Euro weakness then ?

So Currencies all over the place - along with gold , which one is going up ?

and

Anyone for Tea at the FT

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/09/338626/invitation-to-teatheft/

[lannarebirth]

Goldman anticipates QE2 dollar weakness

http://ftalphaville....ollar-weakness/

Goldman anticipates $ weakness after $ strength - so Euro weakness then ?

So Currencies all over the place - along with gold , which one is going up ?

and

Anyone for Tea at the FT

http://ftalphaville....on-to-teatheft/

Why is it that GS can be called liars, cheats, cocksuckers and "a great vampire suid wrappped around the face of humanity", but when they say something that appeals to your sensibilities and just happens to coincide with your holdings, they all of a sudden have credibility? Just askin'.

[Abrak]

Why is it that GS can be called liars, cheats, cocksuckers and "a great vampire suid wrappped around the face of humanity", but when they say something that appeals to your sensibilities and just happens to coincide with your holdings, they all of a sudden have credibility? Just askin'.

I think you possibly dont have a full knowledge about 'vampire squids'. That is precisely how they work. If you have been affected long enough some people even start saying things like 'well yeah... they earnt those bonuses....'

[lannarebirth]

Why is it that GS can be called liars, cheats, cocksuckers and "a great vampire suid wrappped around the face of humanity", but when they say something that appeals to your sensibilities and just happens to coincide with your holdings, they all of a sudden have credibility? Just askin'.

I think you possibly dont have a full knowledge about 'vampire squids'. That is precisely how they work. If you have been affected long enough some people even start saying things like 'well yeah... they earnt those bonuses....'

Coming soon to a theater near you:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1027718/

[Naam]

View Post123ace, on 2010-09-09 16:26, said:

Naam - are you serioulsy betting against gold? or is this all a cover for a secret gold horder?

It seems reasonably likley we will see 19,000 before years end based on the evidence not discusssed in the main stream media.

Are you equally anti silver?

i am neither betting against any precious metal nor am i anti-precious metal. all what i am doing is trying hard to conduct (to no avail) a discussion in which tangible facts and not fiction dominate. but in Thaivisa that seems as impossible as it is in my home where gold-hoarding Mrs Naam is my adversary... only when it concerns gold . as an experienced investor (>three decades) i have seen a lot of ups and downs in a variety of asset classes and of course i am well aware how abyssmally poor Gold fared during these 30 years. however, for the goldlovers only the last 10 years exist. anything before does either not exist or is negated.

it is worthwhile to mention that i see any investment from the perspective of a person who retired 21 years ago and who pays since then with the yields he achieves not only for the expenses of a rather comfortable life style but reinvests the lion share of his income. if i had put all my savings into gold when i retired in 1989 and spent money as i did spend i would be a pauper now with nothing left but a meagre social insurance payment.

the problem with gold is that it does not provide any income/yield besides appreciation, which is not guaranteed as history proves. nobody was ever able to "live off gold" for an extended period of time, even when bought at absolute lows. as opposed to other assets which provide an income that can be partly used for living expenses and partly for reinvestment, "living off gold" means continously selling and therefore causing a continous depletion of "volume" but without a penny left for reinvestment. but gold lovers never sell and have no plans whatsoever to sell, just ask my wife or any of the goldbugs here. an interesting question is where's the money coming from which my wife uses to buy gold whenever she pleases?

i don't deny that we might see THB19k (or more) for one Baht weight. but we have seen these 19k some time ago already. so where's the beef?

with your permission i will copy your questions and my answer in the "real" gold thread.

[churchill]

Goldman anticipates QE2 dollar weakness

http://ftalphaville....ollar-weakness/

Goldman anticipates $ weakness after $ strength - so Euro weakness then ?

So Currencies all over the place - along with gold , which one is going up ?

and

Anyone for Tea at the FT

http://ftalphaville....on-to-teatheft/

Why is it that GS can be called liars, cheats, cocksuckers and "a great vampire suid wrappped around the face of humanity", but when they say something that appeals to your sensibilities and just happens to coincide with your holdings, they all of a sudden have credibility? Just askin'.

Isn't that the whole point - They don't know what they think -

I think Gold has broken free of USD and will go up whether USD index goes up or down , What do you think ?>

BTW What are your charts saying about the $ , Euro , Gold , HUI , Silver at this time ?

[churchill]

and I believe you have been bearish on USD , Gold and Silver for about 3 months are your views changing ?

[churchill]

A Double Top In Gold? That’s What The Bears Are Hoping For

"For the past few days I have been talking about my concern regarding the way gold was looking on the chart, just from a short term perspective. The precious metal has had a huge run over the past 1 1/2 months without really taking a break. I didn’t know if it had enough gas in the tank to make that final push to new highs over the next few days. It has been “testing the waters” this week but couldn’t manage a close above the levels it hit back in June. I think a lot of traders in gold were hoping for a breakout to occur, and when it didn’t they sold and the shorts piled on. Gold ended down about $11 to $1,244"

"A lot of bears are going to be saying that gold is forming a double top. That’s really all they can hope for at this point though. I say the precious metal is just climbing a wall of worry. And the more talk we hear over the next few days of “double tops” the better."

more at http://goldstocksdaily.com/

[churchill]

IMF makes 4th central bank gold sale in year

(Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday that it sold 10 metric tonnes of gold to the central bank of Bangladesh on Sept. 7, using Tuesday's market prices for the transaction. It was the fourth IMF sale to a central bank in a year.

The fund adopted a plan last year to diversify its sources of income and increase low-cost lending to poor countries by up to $17 billion through 2014.

Country: BANGALDESH

Volume sold: 10 tonnes

Date announced: Sept. 9, 2010

more .. http://in.reuters.com/article/idINIndia-51400220100909

[churchill]

For those that prefer the stars/planets to charts ...

http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/latest-news.php?id=469

"WEEK NEWLSETTER FROM 6-10 SEPETMBER

GOLD/SILVER

Last two weeks we were absolutely wrong on metals predictions. During both weeks Tuesday (Mars) turnaround occurred in gold and silver prices from their lows. The previous week gold jumped from $1,211 to $1,238 and this week again from $1,233 to $1,251.

Last week gold made high of $1,259 and silver $19.97. It is a big lesson for me because I never gave Mercury that important role in metals trends. I hope that from here on I will able to predict far better in metal trends during volatile times.

This week Mercury and the combination of Mars/Saturn will create volatilities so traders should be very careful. This is a warning sign for buyers as well sellers because if buyers dont book profit then they may miss the big pie and if short sellers go aggressive with high leverages then they can also lose as this week is still quite uncertain. I dont want to predict anything for this week but in short gold and silver will move both sides aggressively.

Metal stocks will have final laugh before they start falling with metals any time after 15 September.

I dont want to predict specific of highs and lows during this week (they wont able to move much higher from last week $1263 and $20.09) but surely Id like to warn gold and silver traders not to trade big positions at this stage and the best advice I can give buyers is that you should be 100% out from future contract and if you dont like to go out of 100% then sell all your buying in futures market and buy calls for December or next year so if any drastic fall comes you dont lose what you made in last few years.

One thing is for sure: gold and silver has very few days left before they correct, and yes they can correct substantially. Sun transit is guiding me that both these metals can fall between 10 to 30% in the next 38 trading days.

For intraday traders in gold/silver - Monday, Thursday and Friday sell on the rises and Tuesday and Wednesday buy on the falls. This week planetary position indicates that from late Thursday 9 Sep metals will start moving down.

HUI index will top out this week around 495 and from her precious metal stocks will move down big."

Edited September 10, 2010 by churchill

[lannarebirth]

Goldman anticipates QE2 dollar weakness

http://ftalphaville....ollar-weakness/

Goldman anticipates $ weakness after $ strength - so Euro weakness then ?

So Currencies all over the place - along with gold , which one is going up ?

and

Anyone for Tea at the FT

http://ftalphaville....on-to-teatheft/

Why is it that GS can be called liars, cheats, cocksuckers and "a great vampire suid wrappped around the face of humanity", but when they say something that appeals to your sensibilities and just happens to coincide with your holdings, they all of a sudden have credibility? Just askin'.

Isn't that the whole point - They don't know what they think -

I think Gold has broken free of USD and will go up whether USD index goes up or down , What do you think ?>

I think that fact became pretty obvious when the Euro started sliding hard. I said as much months before it happened.

BTW What are your charts saying about the $ , Euro , Gold , HUI , Silver at this time ?

I'll look later. Right now I just enjoying the fact that the wife and kids have gone to Bangkok for a few days.

[lannarebirth]

and I believe you have been bearish on USD , Gold and Silver for about 3 months are your views changing ?

I am not bearish on the USD. but that fact could change quickly if it slides much under its 200sma. Gold and Silver holding up very well, Haven't looked at Silver but Gold hasn't tested it support yet. That means it either has to before it can continue to rise or that it will rise and the come right back down to test support. That's just my opinion of course. Anything at alll could happen these days.

[churchill]

'I'll look later. Right now I just enjoying the fact that the wife and kids have gone to Bangkok for a few days.'

[churchill]

Big Autumn Gold Rally

http://www.zealllc.com/2010/autgold.htm

and

Gold begins to fly when deflation is in the wind

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/75c5ab1c-bcff-11df-954b-00144feab49a.html

[churchill]

Which asset do people from this region trust ? and as wages increase and standards of living increase in China ,India, Vietnam and SE Asia - one of the places they will invest is Gold - The Chinese are encouraging gold investments ( whilst discouraging property ? ) - The Indians need no encouragement - most others cannot afford property so will buy gold/silver - Vietnam keeps devaluing their currency -and many there must be buying gold to protect their assets

India's gold ETF collection doubles

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/indias-gold-etf-collection-doubles/680946/

With wealth increasing along with food inflation i think gold and silver demand will increase / In the west gold/silver demand will increase as currencies decline IMO .

So with prices at $1250 and $20 for silver are they too high - I think not /

Edited September 13, 2010 by churchill

[lannarebirth]

.

So with prices at $1250 and $20 for silver are they too high - I think not /

Get serious man. It's a golf ball marker.

[churchill]

Thailand: who’s buying gold?

According to some numbers buried in the Thai customs website, gold imports in July, the latest month for which data is available, hit Bt55.4bn ($1.8bn), which is equivalent to a bit less than 45 tonnes and more than 13 times June imports of Bt4.1bn ($130m).

There are a few possible explanations. Thailand is a global jewellery hub - the world’s biggest cutting centre for coloured stones - but jewellery demand was significantly down in June and July.

Previous months had seen significant exports, but restocking doesn’t seem to account for the rise either. Nor does leakage into Vietnam, whose demand for the glittery stuff is immense but fairly constant.

So the numbers have got tongues wagging in Bangkok - and one player keeps being mentioned: the central bank, the Bank of Thailand.

cont .. http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2010/09/13/thailand-whos-buying-gold/

[mania]

Gold is doing nicely & look at silver go! Nice

[churchill]

.

So with prices at $1250 and $20 for silver are they too high - I think not /

Get serious man. It's a golf ball marker.

Yes , The 1st shot on a par 5