Where Is Gold Going In This Market

[churchill]

Thailand: who’s buying gold?

According to some numbers buried in the Thai customs website, gold imports in July, the latest month for which data is available, hit Bt55.4bn ($1.8bn), which is equivalent to a bit less than 45 tonnes and more than 13 times June imports of Bt4.1bn ($130m).

There are a few possible explanations. Thailand is a global jewellery hub - the world’s biggest cutting centre for coloured stones - but jewellery demand was significantly down in June and July.

Previous months had seen significant exports, but restocking doesn’t seem to account for the rise either. Nor does leakage into Vietnam, whose demand for the glittery stuff is immense but fairly constant.

So the numbers have got tongues wagging in Bangkok - and one player keeps being mentioned: the central bank, the Bank of Thailand.

cont .. http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2010/09/13/thailand-whos-buying-gold/

Seems to be so

'The metal received a boost from data showing Thailand raised its gold holdings by a fifth in July through open-market purchases, joining a growing list of Asian nations diversifying into gold amid volatility in other markets.

Thailand increased its gold holdings to 3.2 million ounces in July from 2.7 million ounces in June, according to financial data published by the International Monetary Fund.'

http://www.gata.org/node/9025

and Why You Need to Own Gold http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204914704575489840556890202.html?mod=BOL_mp_emailed_today#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1

[churchill]

Even with the squabbling, they're all agreed on one thing......"We're doomed"

that we are doomed goes without saying. but those who worked their àsses off to "preserve wealth" and bequeath their heirs with their life savings have the consolation that their cremation is paid for in Krüger Rands or Maple Leaves and not with perfide fiat money.

Seems many agree 'IF YOU WERE TO TRAVEL 100 years into the future, never to return to 2010, what would you pack for the trip: $1 million in cash or $1 million in gold?' see Barons article in previuos post

[Naam]

"see Barons article"

Churchill, all these articles and futuristic wet dreams i read and hear since more than three decades, to be precise since 1979. and if my remaining statistical life time would be another three decades (which unfortunately it is not) i'd hear them till they carry me to the crematorium.

yawwwnnnnn...

[churchill]

Sorry to keep you up with the same same - Perhaps we are getting to the point slowly !

El-Erian on an interesting week ahead

'Last week, Japan intervened massively to stop its currency from appreciating. It did so in a unilateral fashion and, immediately, faced criticisms from Europe and the US.

Meanwhile, in a sharply-worded testimony to Congress, Treasury Secretary Geithner provided lots of data to those that feel that the US should have already labeled China a currency manipulator. And while China has recently accelerated the rate of its managed appreciation 1% in the last week compared to just 1.6% since the country declared great flexibility back in June this is proving insufficient to counter growing currency tensions.

These latest foreign exchange developments bring to the fore an inconvenient reality. While not all industrial countries wish to make it explicit, they are happy (indeed eager) to see their currencies depreciate. They see this as helping them address the extremely difficult challenges associated with a protracted period of low growth, high unemployment, and limited policy effectiveness.

The list of industrial countries wishing to depreciate their currencies is not matched by a list of emerging economies happy to let their currencies appreciate significantly. As a result, foreign exchange tensions are mounting, and the price of gold has been driven to a new record level.

This week will shed light on whether policymakers can do anything to deal with these two issues. If they continue to stumble and hesitate, what has been simmering may well come to a full boil in the next few months.'

more at ..

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/19/346446/guest-post-el-erian-on-an-interesting-week-ahead/

Edited September 19, 2010 by churchill

[cloudhopper]

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bill-buckler-discusses-last-price-standing-true-money-answers-only-question-relevant-gold-bu

[Naam]

"Buckler's brilliant observations on the inevitable death of fiat, and gold's ascent to the status of "last price standing", need no commentary..."

...except

[churchill]

After Anglo ----- Resolute to close gold hedge, raises A$40m http://www.miningweekly.com/article/resolute-to-close-gold-hedge-raises-a40m-2010-09-20

I think pressure is rising in gold and silver

see

[churchill]

Malaysia Slaps "Dollar As Reserve Currency" Thesis, As It Buys Renminbi-Denominated Bonds

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/malaysia-slaps-dollar-reserve-currency-thesis-it-buys-renminbi-denominated-bonds

[neverdie]

The only thing out performing my gold at the moment is my Aussie Dollars.......

[flying]

I think pressure is rising in gold and silver

Good clip thanks

[badge]

Does anyone know where i can get a spot gold graph from 1960's to today? c$1325 looks interesting, but so does c$1450

[badge]

So with Gold at new highs Ive ran my ruler over it, and depending on what data I put into my model I get varying Long Term targets, the most poignant of which lie at 1355/65/90, so really anywhere between 1350-1400(!), and then 1575-1600. All rather vague then!

Theres some less potentially significant targets along the way at 1365, 1460 and 1515 too.

[flying]

So with Gold at new highs Ive ran my ruler over it, and depending on what data I put into my model I get varying Long Term targets, the most poignant of which lie at 1355/65/90, so really anywhere between 1350-1400(!), and then 1575-1600. All rather vague then!

Theres some less potentially significant targets along the way at 1365, 1460 and 1515 too.

Yes doing rather well isn't it

Silver too

Edited September 22, 2010 by flying

[gregb]

So with Gold at new highs Ive ran my ruler over it, and depending on what data I put into my model I get varying Long Term targets, the most poignant of which lie at 1355/65/90, so really anywhere between 1350-1400(!), and then 1575-1600. All rather vague then!

Theres some less potentially significant targets along the way at 1365, 1460 and 1515 too.

Has anyone ever thought of doing an exponential fit to gold? I understand that anything can be approximated by a line over a short period, but technical analysis relies way to much on trying to make these linear predictions. When I look at a chart of gold over the last decade, the exponential characteristic is unmistakable.

Of course, this is true of most things, such as stocks, when a company is small. There is a period of exponential growth, where it grows X% per year, and then quickly saturates the market and drops off, thus giving the linear characteristics that everyone uses for technical analysis. Unless you play in penny stocks, the stocks everyone charts are all mature, large companies which do not have the capacity for exponential growth, so this system works well.

Gold, on the other hand, is still in its infancy. The current size of the market for gold is but a tiny sliver of the global currency trade. It could grow at 15% for several decades without bumping up against any practical limits that would slow the natural exponential tendencies.

My hypothesis is that if you are trying to make a prediction on gold, the typical linear technical analysis does not seem to be the optimal way to look at the problem. Gold is just starting its upward trajectory. If you want to do technical analysis, you should be using the log of the price rather than the price itself.

Has anyone ever considered the problem from this angle, and would you still call 1600 as a long term target? My guess is that a 5 year target should be well over 2500, assuming the USD does not completely collapse in that period.

[badge]

So with Gold at new highs Ive ran my ruler over it, and depending on what data I put into my model I get varying Long Term targets, the most poignant of which lie at 1355/65/90, so really anywhere between 1350-1400(!), and then 1575-1600. All rather vague then!

Theres some less potentially significant targets along the way at 1365, 1460 and 1515 too.

[...]

My hypothesis is that if you are trying to make a prediction on gold, the typical linear technical analysis does not seem to be the optimal way to look at the problem. Gold is just starting its upward trajectory. If you want to do technical analysis, you should be using the log of the price rather than the price itself.

Has anyone ever considered the problem from this angle, and would you still call 1600 as a long term target? My guess is that a 5 year target should be well over 2500, assuming the USD does not completely collapse in that period.

Thanks for your input Greg, however the model I use has accurately predicted highs and lows in several macro financial and capital markets, honed over many years of my experiences working in financial markets. It doesnt rely on 'technical analysis'.

Your guess on the other hand, what is it based on pre tel?

Instead of arriving at random numbers like 2500 - a whopping almost 100% rise from current levels - I try to focus on a more pragmatic approach and look at possible issues immediately ahead.

[Naam]

So with Gold at new highs Ive ran my ruler over it, and depending on what data I put into my model I get varying Long Term targets, the most poignant of which lie at 1355/65/90, so really anywhere between 1350-1400(!), and then 1575-1600. All rather vague then!

Theres some less potentially significant targets along the way at 1365, 1460 and 1515 too.

Yes doing rather well isn't it Silver too

in USD terms very impressive! seen from the perspective of some other currencies and/or price/yield development of non-USD denominated assets not impressive.

[churchill]

Schiff Report on FOMC statement, Pres. Obama's CNBC town hall

[churchill]

All aboard the QE2 – double or quits

'One thing that is sure, the FOMC’s policy statement on Tuesday opened the door to the option of more quantitative easing in the near future.

The key amendment in the statement being:

The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to provide additional accommodation if needed to support the economic recovery and to return inflation, over time, to levels consistent with its mandate.

And so far, consensus seems focused on three implications in particualr:

1) the fact that the global devaluation race has just stepped up a notch. (the $USD index has hit a six month low this morning).

2) that gold may sizzle once more. (the precious metal is at a fresh nominal high this morning).

3) and that inflation fears could once again be revisited, especially as the dollar devalues'

continued ..http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/22/349391/all-aboard-the-qe2-double-or-quits/

[churchill]

Are Junior Gold and Silver miners undervalued ?

Some think so / Time to invest in GDXJ and SIL ?

Goldcorp to buy Andean Resources for $3.4 billion

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldcorp-to-buy-andean-resources-for-34-billion-2010-09-03

Anyone buy ? Some good profits in the last month or so !and now With silver trading over $21 and gold towards $1300 - Gold and Silver stocks could seriously rise from here /

[LivinLOS]

What do you guys think of buying "paper gold" at HSBC?

Pros & cons?

http://www.hsbc.com....pwscmd=cmd_init

If you want to trade gold, with the intention of selling for a profit should the price rise, it should work well for that.

If you want to own gold as insurance against some of the possible calamities listed by Sonic Dragon yesterday, or waking up one morning to find you can no longer log in to the HSBC web site, then IMO there is no substitute for private possession of bullion.

Why not use a bullion bank that actually allows you to take delivery (unlike bullion Vault, goldmoney etc) or have free storage.. GoldMadeSimple.com being the ideal compromise IMO.

Note, I am biased, I am involved with the company.

[cloudhopper]

Why not use a bullion bank that actually allows you to take delivery (unlike bullion Vault, goldmoney etc) or have free storage.. GoldMadeSimple.com being the ideal compromise IMO.

Note, I am biased, I am involved with the company.

I don't know, why not? How exactly does GMS "allow" you to take physical delivery here in LOS? Are any duties liable at delivery of 999 bullion here in LOS?

[neverdie]

So with Gold at new highs Ive ran my ruler over it, and depending on what data I put into my model I get varying Long Term targets, the most poignant of which lie at 1355/65/90, so really anywhere between 1350-1400(!), and then 1575-1600. All rather vague then!

Theres some less potentially significant targets along the way at 1365, 1460 and 1515 too.

Yes doing rather well isn't it Silver too

in USD terms very impressive! seen from the perspective of some other currencies and/or price/yield development of non-USD denominated assets not impressive.

Exactly.

[Naam]

So with Gold at new highs Ive ran my ruler over it, and depending on what data I put into my model I get varying Long Term targets, the most poignant of which lie at 1355/65/90, so really anywhere between 1350-1400(!), and then 1575-1600. All rather vague then!

Theres some less potentially significant targets along the way at 1365, 1460 and 1515 too.

Yes doing rather well isn't it Silver too

in USD terms very impressive! seen from the perspective of some other currencies and/or price/yield development of non-USD denominated assets not impressive.

Exactly.

ND, you talk too much! please limit your comments to a bare minimum which is easy to read and easy to understand.

[Naam]

Why not use a bullion bank that actually allows you to take delivery (unlike bullion Vault, goldmoney etc) or have free storage.. GoldMadeSimple.com being the ideal compromise IMO.

Note, I am biased, I am involved with the company.

I don't know, why not? How exactly does GMS "allow" you to take physical delivery here in LOS? Are any duties liable at delivery of 999 bullion here in LOS?

Gold Made Simple is based the UK and falls under UK legislation. It is therefore is regulated under English Law.

Regulatory responsibility rests on three mutually independent arms of law enforcement:

the investigating authority: the London Metropolitan Police Force

the prosecuting authority: the UK Crown Prosecution Service

the Criminal Courts: the Criminal Court system

amazing regulations. English Law! i can't think of any place safer where to invest my dough

[cloudhopper]

Gold Made Simple is based the UK and falls under UK legislation. It is therefore is regulated under English Law.

Regulatory responsibility rests on three mutually independent arms of law enforcement:

the investigating authority: the London Metropolitan Police Force

the prosecuting authority: the UK Crown Prosecution Service

the Criminal Courts: the Criminal Court system

amazing regulations. English Law! i can't think of any place safer where to invest my dough

What no taxing authorities?

Honestly I cannot fricking imagine a more liquid and anonymous market for the average private citizen to buy and sell gold bullion than here.

[LivinLOS]

According to Islamic law, the dinar coin is 4.25 grams of gold, while the dirham is 3grams of pure silver.

= only one of the zillion bullshite claims in the "report" that Churchill quoted.

But it is in the Qu'ran that paper money is 'haram' ie forbidden by law, and true Islamic monetary system should be on physical backed currency (not only PM's but thats the interpretation)..

[LivinLOS]

Why not use a bullion bank that actually allows you to take delivery (unlike bullion Vault, goldmoney etc) or have free storage.. GoldMadeSimple.com being the ideal compromise IMO.

Note, I am biased, I am involved with the company.

I don't know, why not? How exactly does GMS "allow" you to take physical delivery here in LOS? Are any duties liable at delivery of 999 bullion here in LOS?

GMS stores your gold if you wish, it also delivers to many countries globally that they have secure delivery channels or allows you to go to the vaults (even just to view the allocated storage by appointment) and take it with you. Go ask GoldMoney or BullionVault what the access is like to your bullion, or what counter claims there are, or shared bars, etc.. GMS is the only (that I know of) online, real time, gold bank, account with free and full access and zero counter party claim.

Kitco etc are all pooled gold, so you have a claim on a share of a bar, Perth mint 'allocated' is currently taking weeks / months to arrange delivery.. GMS is the only 'if you cant see it, you dont own it' online system.

Yes I am biased.

[Naam]

According to Islamic law, the dinar coin is 4.25 grams of gold, while the dirham is 3grams of pure silver.

= only one of the zillion bullshite claims in the "report" that Churchill quoted.

But it is in the Qu'ran that paper money is 'haram' ie forbidden by law, and true Islamic monetary system should be on physical backed currency (not only PM's but thats the interpretation)..

based on my knowledge of the القرآن i claim that there is no sura like this! anyway, paper money did not exist when it was written, id est there can't be any interpretations.

[Abrak]

According to Islamic law, the dinar coin is 4.25 grams of gold, while the dirham is 3grams of pure silver.

= only one of the zillion bullshite claims in the "report" that Churchill quoted.

But it is in the Qu'ran that paper money is 'haram' ie forbidden by law, and true Islamic monetary system should be on physical backed currency (not only PM's but thats the interpretation)..

based on my knowledge of the القرآن i claim that there is no sura like this! anyway, paper money did not exist when it was written, id est there can't be any interpretations.

I am guessing but I suspect it is refering to the fact that payment of interest on money is Haram. Obviously 'paper money' suffers from this problem while PM's are freed from this evil burden. I am oversimplifying because you can get a return - as in a Sukuk - but it cannot be fixed interest payments.

[neverdie]

ND, you talk too much! please limit your comments to a bare minimum which is easy to read and easy to understand.

Sorry.