Crystal Balls And Farang Farmers

[IsaanAussie]

Hi Farmers,

In the last few weeks the number of posts to this forum seem to have dropped markedly. Perhaps everyone is distracted by the global economic situation. If that is the case it would be interesting to know what changes the members plan to make in their lives as a result. So treat this topic as an opportunity to exchange survival thoughts.

As a starter we are a disparate group, with members such as Maizefarmer whose 1500 Rai dwarfs us all, and many like me with under 20 Rai that now see their "perfect plan" now undercapitalised. We are also split between those that live in Thailand and those for whom Thailand is an occassional oasis for a period of time each year.

General opinion I hear is that Thailand, internally at least, will begin to feel the effects more at the grassroots level over the next months. What is going to happen? Has it effected you already? What changes will you make? How will the future pan out?

[IsaanAussie]

So let me offer my thoughts:

Firstly this year has seen a compression of the boom and bust cycle for farmers here. Early on rice prices went through the roof with farm gate prices doubling. Rubber reaching 100baht. Ethanol plants planned so crops like cassava were heavily promoted. The farmer seemed set to enjoy better income than ever.

New tractors, harvestors and vehicles went onto the credit card. Everything set for a good year.

The counter obviously, ballooning prices of material inputs as controls were relaxed and international commodity prices drove up fertiliser and imported goods prices. Thailand having 80% of its GDP derived from exports was primed to enjoy riches only as long as their markets continued to grow.

Now with a strong baht, more export competition, overseas market contraction and a government in disarray, Thailand stands on the brink.

I am in the investment phase of a small integrated farm. My funds are in AUD and now worth some 30% less than 3 months ago. In essence the safety net is shrinking fast. After much thought I have decided to plunge in regardless and albeit at a slower pace, complete those parts of my project that have revenue potential returns. The new house can wait.

My inputs will be focused at a local market, in my immediate proximity. Costs and prices must remain within that economy. Anything and everything that can be produced on farm rather than bought, will be. Ride out the storm.

In terms of mid term future, there will be many failures amongst the debt ridden farming community and many others that are compromised. The CP's of the world will take a larger slice of agriculture and the farming communities will continue to age and decline. More child minding and contract farming with increasing pressure on farm gate prices.

Long term? Well people have to eat, even if the dining table is on a rollercoaster

Edited October 19, 2008 by IsaanAussie

[pnustedt]

In the short/med term the annual rice harvest should show a good return around here (Sisaket), farm gate prices are 50% up on last year @ Bt14/kilo whilst diesel is now only slightly higher. The rains seem to have been OK for most so the rice farmers should show a comparatively good return.

We should also benefit from the border with Cambodia being closed - less low-priced produce such as chillies coming across the border.

There are signs that farmers are diversifying into other crops and living standards are gradually improving, with more mechanisation becoming apparant.

The main long term farming problem is that less people will want to work the land and those who do are an aging population. However, land is fairly scarce to come by and prices are firm to rising.

My main business is contract farming (mainly harvesting) and has reached the stage where it should fund itself and provide me a living in Thai Baht, so international exchange rates are not an issue anymore. However, I recently purchased some equipment, using US$ and got a similar exch. rate to last year.

[Chinavet]

Some very interesting issues raised here. Adequate income in Thai Baht is a good place to be. Being self sufficient is a good place to be. My gut feeling is Thailand seems to be late acknowledging the impact of the financial crisis and the bad news is yet to be revealed. If so, the Baht should depreciate. Who knows really?

Would major job losses in the cities bring the younger people home to farm the land? I see all the land around planted with rice (Sangkha) still, but the majority of the farmers are very aged and funerals very common. If a younger generation do not return to farm, I see many of them contracting longer term cash crops out, to hang onto their inherited land, or selling. The other likely result is more consolidation and mechanization. Since 1991 I have seen the prosperity in Isaan slowly improving, certainly there are more options available to young Thais than straight up subsistence farming.

Another post today discusses a potential bank foreclosure. All of the farmers here seem to have their property titles held by banks, lenders or Pu Yai and seem to have little concept of the interest rates that bleed them. Are foreclosures common? Are they increasing now?

I have not understood the price hikes in rice this year. Seems to have been a futures/speculation bubble? Manipulated?

But the big picture long term is China. Yesterday China introduce sweeping new land reforms. Although it will take time to see the results, I will bet the next years will see further losses in agricultural land. Their rice bowl in the south is effectively a big concrete factory floor already. Desertification is eating it away from the north. I believe supply and demand indicate increasing value in both the land and crops in the not too distant future. Watch out for news of Chinese money buying Thai land.

To answer Isaanaussie's question, I plan to keep my powder dry (cash in bank) and see what develops in the next months. I do not expect the Baht, land or crop prices to appreciate, more likely the other way. At least until all the financial news is on the table. Interesting times.

[Smithson]

Good thread Aussie, it would be worth looking at what happened in '97 when the Thai economy crashed. I think during this time many returned to the farms.

My present job deals is exporting a product that is by no means a necessity. We are still very busy, but I expect a decline in the new year and in the worst case I could even go out of business. I have less than 4 rai, not enough to make a living off, however we have just about 2 of every type of fruit tree, plenty of water, good soil etc. I would also look to food self-sufficiency.

Something I'm doing as a hobby is aquaponics, considering the number of ppl with fish farms I'm surprised there isn't more interest in this. Nobody knows how the next few years will pan out, but long term environmental problems will catch up with us. We can reduce our costs through integrated farming (vermicomposting, aquaponics etc.), at the moment a lot of these methods may not be viable, however as cost rise that may change.

[Loom]

I have not understood the price hikes in rice this year. Seems to have been a futures/speculation bubble? Manipulated?

But the big picture long term is China. Yesterday China introduce sweeping new land reforms. Although it will take time to see the results, I will bet the next years will see further losses in agricultural land. Their rice bowl in the south is effectively a big concrete factory floor already. Desertification is eating it away from the north. I believe supply and demand indicate increasing value in both the land and crops in the not too distant future. Watch out for news of Chinese money buying Thai land.

To answer Isaanaussie's question, I plan to keep my powder dry (cash in bank) and see what develops in the next months. I do not expect the Baht, land or crop prices to appreciate, more likely the other way. At least until all the financial news is on the table. Interesting times.

Something like 30% of the US corn harvest is going to biofuel so ag commodity prices are more and more linked to oil prices. That explains part of the rice price increase. With oil prices down some 50% from their peak, planted area up and inventories inching higher, rice prices have been pulling back from their highs.

I have a different read on China land reform. I doubt the Chinese government will allow farmland sales for factory use. Same thing happened in Thailand not long ago and from what I understand, it led to an increase in agricultural output. I suspect China believes it can reduce its dependence on imports somewhat by giving farmers more incentive to improve land that they own. For the rice market, this might not be good news near-term. The decline in rice production from China is one reason why world inventory levels dropped so much and prices are higher lately. But you mention a few good reasons why farm land and crop prices should be rising longer term.

They used to say that US property prices never fall and this turned out to be a fallacy. I've heard the same thing said for Thai land prices. It will be interesting to see if farm land prices in Thailand weather this downturn without dropping from where they've reached this year.

[ozzydom]

Commodity prices are a result of supply / demand / affordability and of course market manipulation,since August commodities ranging from oil to minerals to basic food have diminished by up to 50% in world markets .

Imported rice has fallen to 50% of pre August prices in India.

Just as in the 97 crash ,it will not be long before many projects grind to a halt because finance will not be available, putting many Thais in the unemployed catogory .

Anticipated returns from bio-fuel crops were based on an oil price of $150 a barrel , it has dropped by 50%.

The stock market crash has seen investors around the world lose around 60% of their wealth'

The current Thailand rice crop has been planted at much higher than normal expense due to the extremely high prices of fertilizers etc , this money has in many cases been borrowed and spent and the harvest is only 4 - 6 weeks from starting.

My gut feeling after living through credit squeezes and financial downturns since the late 30,s is that the

Look for commodity prices including rice to be at least 20 % down on last seasons opening prices.

I hope my crystal ball is totally wrong ,but that is what I see.

[Smithson]

It would probably be a good time to consider building if you'd been putting it off due to high prices, that's if you've got the cash. Bit of a catch 22.

[IsaanAussie]

The current Thailand rice crop has been planted at much higher than normal expense due to the extremely high prices of fertilizers etc , this money has in many cases been borrowed and spent and the harvest is only 4 - 6 weeks from starting.

My gut feeling after living through credit squeezes and financial downturns since the late 30,s is that the

Look for commodity prices including rice to be at least 20 % down on last seasons opening prices.

I hope my crystal ball is totally wrong ,but that is what I see.

Dom,

I believe you are spot on.

It doesnt matter where the farmers are, or for that matter where the sheep are, there are people called traders out there that want to make or break in the blink of an eye. Crops, animals, whatever, take a little longer for the farmer to realise. The investment in changing from one income stream to another is livelihood threathening for most farmers globally, not just Thailand. CP and Betagrow are one way to some stability for the small holding farmers, they won't get rich, but they will survive. Who are we, the Thai culturally maladjusted to say that large conglomerate "rental of land and people-for profit" is not the best, no easiest, way to preserve Thai Culture and the continuously smaller parcels of inherited land.

For me, Thai people, one in particular,is the reason I am fully committed, full time, to making this work. All I can do is Fit In. "UP to Me" TIT

For those of the members, probably most, who have more to draw on than me, relax there are no quick fixes anywhere, ride the horse/elephant you have chosen to sit on.

Isaanaussie

[farmerjo]

The only crytal balls i see are the ones between my legs getting cut out and sold if the missus doesnt get her bonus at sugar cutting time

[Lickey]

I sold up in the UK and moved here 2 years ago today, i still have a "golden parachute" in the UK, and thats where its going to stay, i invested 60k in the 40rai fruit farm via irrigattion, new crops ect, and thats it, no more money from me, specially in the present eco climate.

After years of falling on my head with wimen, im pretty sure ive fallen on my feet this time, Pan sold her bungalow and together we built a new salon, Pan has been 25 years in the beauty buiness and makes good money in the salon, Last year the farm helped the salon, and this year its the other way round, because of the pests we had, it broke my heart to see 4rai of papaya ploughed in, we planted casava, its growing well, but the price is dropping fast too.

Sold 190 hands of bananas today, 5bht a hand, 750bht, my beer money for the week, this happens on a weekly basis, so thats me looked after!

We sell banana & papaya outside the salon and can sometimes make 400bht a day.

I have 4 compost heaps going for 4 months now, the cow/chicken shit has cost me 600bht, the rest is made up of sawdust, green seedless weeds,banana culms, kitc hen waste, [no meat] approx 1 ton each, possibly saving me 5000bht in fertilser this year?

It would be interesting how large scale famers cope with this eco downturn, with all the machinery, regular labour ect.

I suppose the moral of my story is that if youve got a good hardworking wife who has her own buisness [other than farming] then you have a chance to survive with your [hobby farm]. Unless youve got pots of money, forget farming as a money making venture, its up in the air as far as making money in this eco climate is concerned.

Rgds, Lickey.

[farmerjo]

Hang in there lickey and issanaussie.

Having never farmed before (worked for farmers for 6 years) this is my first attempt.

The people i worked for use to tell me dont get carried away with current commodity prices,research and work on a 10 year average.That average is then used as the bottom line to making profit,if the price is up its a bonus,down you will make it up on the good cycle years.

Farms rarely make high profits in short periods of time unless a lot of capital expenditure has been used.

It takes many years to get the infrastructure and scale of economics right to be successful and a lot of hard work along the way.

Im 4 years down the track farming sugar here and work on 400 baht per ton break even.So even on years like this when price is 807 per ton things were skimped on,25kg fertilizer instead of 110kg,no insectiside,only sprayed herbicide on worst areas and no labour between planting and harvesting,less diesel around the farm.Luckily its been a great growing season so even if price drops dramatically we should still make a profit.

As for the future,at the moment working off farm to supplement income and soon off to africa for 3 months to gather some money to come back and expand.Hopefully the last time i will have to be away from here.At 37 i think there is a future in farming,especially in warehousing commodities on farm and selling at peak times.

To all the farang farmers out there in thailand,keep your chins up the wheel will turn.

[Smithson]

We sell banana & papaya outside the salon and can sometimes make 400bht a day.

Sounds good, we've been selling lemons and Som-O outside our business in Bkk. I've been thinking setting up a stall once a week to help pay for the fuel when we go away. Made 800B from Som-O the other day.

It's important to remember the quality of life aspect. I make decent money in Bkk, but would be much happier earning a modest living outside the city.

[GungaDin]

Som O = Pomelo?

[Smithson]

Som O = Pomelo?

That's it!

[JungleBiker]

The other likely result is more consolidation and mechanization.

Well I have certainly noticed the rapid change from 2-wheel tractors (iron buffalos) to Kubotas over recent years and I am sure this trend will continue and the tractors will get bigger.

Watch out for news of Chinese money buying Thai land.

Chinese money is already "invading" neighboring Laos with big investments in rubber, cassava, eucalyptus, tea, etc, as well as in other natural resource based ventures like mining and hydro-electricity.

[JungleBiker]

I have less than 4 rai, not enough to make a living off

Hi Smithson,

Sorry, that's not true. Well it's true if you're talking about growing rice, rubber, sugar cane, cassava, etc. But if you're talking about ornamental plants then you might be surprised. My wife makes a good living off less than one rai. Sorry I can't tell you the specific crop because my wife doesn't want to encourage competition! The markets for these ornamental crops can be fairly small (niche markets) but lucrative provided there is no or little competition. Even so there are many such crops to choose from. It just requires some market research and identification of products which are selling well in other countries (e.g. walk around the garden centers back home to see what they have but which you have not seen in Thailand). To give you an example - Fox Tail palms were a novelty here about 10 years or so ago and I am sure quite a few nurseries made a killing by importing seed from Australia, growing them on and selling the resulting plants. They are now becoming as common as muck, so the trick is to keep identifying the next winners. Ornamental plants can generate a lot of income from small areas of land because there value per unit tends to be high and you can fit a lot of units in a small area. Also in some cases the production cycle can be very short (e.g. bedding plants) so you can get a high turnover per unit area.

JB.

Edited October 22, 2008 by JungleBiker

[GungaDin]

I have less than 4 rai, not enough to make a living off

Hi Smithson,

Sorry, that's not true. Well it's true if you're talking about growing rice, rubber, sugar cane, cassava, etc. But if you're talking about ornamental plants then you might be surprised. My wife makes a good living off less than one rai. Sorry I can't tell you the specific crop because my wife doesn't want to encourage competition! The markets for these ornamental crops can be fairly small (niche markets) but lucrative provided there is no or little competition. Even so there are many such crops to choose from. It just requires some market research and identification of products which are selling well in other countries (e.g. walk around the garden centers back home to see what they have but which you have not seen in Thailand). To give you an example - Fox Tail palms were a novelty here about 10 years or so ago and I am sure quite a few nurseries made a killing by importing seed from Australia, growing them on and selling the resulting plants. They are now becoming as common as muck, so the trick is to keep identifying the next winners. Ornamental plants can generate a lot of income from small areas of land because there value per unit tends to be high and you can fit a lot of units in a small area. Also in some cases the production cycle can be very short (e.g. bedding plants) so you can get a high turnover per unit area.

JB.

JB's wife is onto "a good thing"

I've been on this guy's mailing list for a long time but Aus labour costs made me put it on the back burner.

This is ideal for Thailand with it's lower labour costs.

Anyway, have a look at it and adapt it to your set-up. It's aimed at North Americanos.

http://www.freeplants.com/homemade-plant-propagation.htm

The guy is very pushy, but don't be put off, his ideas are sound.

I have some seed contacts if you need any from Aus, but you can find a lot, advertising on ebay Australia.

Good luck if you become a "Backyard Farmer"

[Smithson]

JB and GD, ornamental plants maybe OK, but you have to know the market very well. The examples of foxtails is a good one, they are available very cheap these days. Same goes with the helliconias (bird of paradise), I can get these for 40B each and half that if I go directly to the farmers. I think they were quite expensive a while ago.

The example of farmerjo is a good one. His wife already has an existing business, so selling from the salon there are no extra costs and it's retail so there's no middleman. We go away almost every weekend and have an existing business that we can sell from. Our land already has a wide variety of fruit trees and we've planted a lot of vegies.

We've been thinking about setting up a stall selling produce once a week. What didn't sell could be sold cheap to our staff at the end of the day. Any thoughts?

Edited October 24, 2008 by Smithson

[GungaDin]

"helliconias (bird of paradise)" Two separate species.

Sorry, just nitpicking

[IsaanAussie]

Hi Crystal Ball Gazers,

There have been a number of interesting inputs on this thread suggesting different niche products and how they are being sold as supplemental income without incurring additional overhead. Like the good ol' lemonade stand outside the frontgate back home as a kid. More lemons than you could poke a stick at on the tree in the backyard so with the exception of the missing sugar from Mums kitchen, little cost except elsewise idle holiday effort.

I thought I might ask how much marketing or even research effort went into the efforts mentioned above? Or for that matter into the non "Backyard Farming to quote GD" income making schemes that we farangs get involved with? How do you judge viability or is it just for fun?

Isaanaussie

[GungaDin]

Hi Crystal Ball Gazers,

There have been a number of interesting inputs on this thread suggesting different niche products and how they are being sold as supplemental income without incurring additional overhead. Like the good ol' lemonade stand outside the frontgate back home as a kid. More lemons than you could poke a stick at on the tree in the backyard so with the exception of the missing sugar from Mums kitchen, little cost except elsewise idle holiday effort.

I thought I might ask how much marketing or even research effort went into the efforts mentioned above? Or for that matter into the non "Backyard Farming to quote GD" income making schemes that we farangs get involved with? How do you judge viability or is it just for fun?

Isaanaussie

Research, Research, Research & Location, Location, Location.

Seriously!

[Smithson]

"helliconias (bird of paradise)" Two separate species.

Sorry, just nitpicking

I though the heliconias were a type of plant with many different varieties, including the variuos bird of paradise types and ginger.

[GungaDin]

"helliconias (bird of paradise)" Two separate species.

Sorry, just nitpicking

I though the heliconias were a type of plant with many different varieties, including the variuos bird of paradise types and ginger.

I have been known to be wrong. I'll call Peter Cundall.

[IsaanAussie]

Hi Crystal Ball Gazers,

There have been a number of interesting inputs on this thread suggesting different niche products and how they are being sold as supplemental income without incurring additional overhead. Like the good ol' lemonade stand outside the frontgate back home as a kid. More lemons than you could poke a stick at on the tree in the backyard so with the exception of the missing sugar from Mums kitchen, little cost except elsewise idle holiday effort.

I thought I might ask how much marketing or even research effort went into the efforts mentioned above? Or for that matter into the non "Backyard Farming to quote GD" income making schemes that we farangs get involved with? How do you judge viability or is it just for fun?

Isaanaussie

Research, Research, Research & Location, Location, Location.

Seriously!

Well actually very seriously. But those for whom it is fun, enjoy..

[Smithson]

I thought I might ask how much marketing or even research effort went into the efforts mentioned above? Or for that matter into the non "Backyard Farming to quote GD" income making schemes that we farangs get involved with? How do you judge viability or is it just for fun?

Isaanaussie

Rather than undertaking serious research, I think it's a matter of seeing an opportunity and taking advantage of it. Having a longer term vision is good, but taking small steps at a time and not investing too much is important. In my case I'd be happy to make the petrol money, if I can achieve that then I'll set a new goal.

Look at JB's example, I bet his wife has an interest in ornamental plants and things took off from there. It's much easier to devote time to something you enjoy and you'll be happy with small gains. Again, the quality of life aspect comes in.

I've seen a lot of ppl come up with fancy business plans and models, but these things are usually not suited to the 'uniqueness' of LOS.

It's also good to have a balance. I'm full of crazy ideas and will lunge at anything. My Mrs. on the other hand is cautious and doesn't believe anything will work. 90% of my ideas are crazy, so I'm lucky she's around to pick holes in them.

[IsaanAussie]

Rather than undertaking serious research, I think it's a matter of seeing an opportunity and taking advantage of it. Having a longer term vision is good, but taking small steps at a time and not investing too much is important. In my case I'd be happy to make the petrol money, if I can achieve that then I'll set a new goal.

Look at JB's example, I bet his wife has an interest in ornamental plants and things took off from there. It's much easier to devote time to something you enjoy and you'll be happy with small gains. Again, the quality of life aspect comes in.

I've seen a lot of ppl come up with fancy business plans and models, but these things are usually not suited to the 'uniqueness' of LOS.

It's also good to have a balance. I'm full of crazy ideas and will lunge at anything. My Mrs. on the other hand is cautious and doesn't believe anything will work. 90% of my ideas are crazy, so I'm lucky she's around to pick holes in them.

Agree completely. If it isn't fun, dont do it. There is always a but, isnt there! ..so.. BUT, what happens when that opportunity grows and needs to be properly capitalised? Not just another banana stand in the long row at the side of the road. Then the risk factor is increased and demands knowledge. Sorry if I am a bore but the current economic situation definitely worries me.

[Smithson]

what happens when that opportunity grows and needs to be properly capitalised? Not just another banana stand in the long row at the side of the road. Then the risk factor is increased and demands knowledge. Sorry if I am a bore but the current economic situation definitely worries me.

It worries me to, these days I wouldn't be investing in anything that wasn't a basic necessity. Considering this there may be opportunities in farming, as food's pretty important. In the coming years it may be more a matter of surviving rather than making money. If your living in rural Thailand without debt you're in a pretty good position...relatively to other sectors like tourism and exports of non-essentials.

Edited October 24, 2008 by Smithson

[IsaanAussie]

It worries me to, these days I wouldn't be investing in anything that wasn't a basic necessity. Considering this there may be opportunities in farming, as food's pretty important. In the coming years it may be more a matter of surviving rather than making money. If your living in rural Thailand without debt you're in a pretty good position...relatively to other sectors like tourism and exports of non-essentials.

That is my one claim to fame, debt free. Sorry my second claim, the primary one is the wife. Wealth isn't on the check list but sufficient funds to make our pig farm materialise. All my sums were done on average income values since the 97 crash, and costs on current plus 5%. So my situtaion isnt so bad. The current situation limits capital expenditure and spreads that spend timescale....

Isaanaussie

[Maizefarmer]

Hi Farmers,

In the last few weeks the number of posts to this forum seem to have dropped markedly. Perhaps everyone is distracted by the global economic situation. If that is the case it would be interesting to know what changes the members plan to make in their lives as a result. So treat this topic as an opportunity to exchange survival thoughts.

As a starter we are a disparate group, with members such as Maizefarmer whose 1500 Rai dwarfs us all, and many like me with under 20 Rai that now see their "perfect plan" now undercapitalized. We are also split between those that live in Thailand and those for whom Thailand is an occasional oasis for a period of time each year.

General opinion I hear is that Thailand, internally at least, will begin to feel the effects more at the grassroots level over the next months. What is going to happen? Has it effected you already? What changes will you make? How will the future pan out?

Speaking for myself the noticeable effect over the last 18months has been the cost of energy (diesel). That though is now going to start dropping - Brent Crude hit $65 a barrel a few days back - compared with the $145 it touched on a few months back.

These lower price contracts will start landing in Thailand over the winter, and we can expect to see a drop in the price of road fuels.

But make no mistake about it; the cost that fuel rose to over this last summer was a shocker.

What impact will the international credit crunch have on Thailand? Good question: To start with, it will be delayed by a good 12months - 18months (as it is in respect of most developing countries with a manufacturing base).

Its primary impact will be on manufacturing: Thailand can expect to see a drop in Western consumer demand for branded goods, and that will reflect on factory production throughout South East Asia. Making the situation worse is the strength of the Baht against the $ - today at around Baht35. It was worse - it dropped to around 29 a few weeks back. If the trend back towards 40 continues, that will be good.

My opinion: hold onto to your forex till at least 39 - 41 - now is not the time to be converting forex into Thai Baht, and for heavens sake - don't go buying Thai property using forex. If it goes that way (i.e. 39/41) we can (I think) avoid another devaluation. But so long as it sits in the high20's and low 30's there is considerable pressure on Thailand's balance of payments, manufacturing will be expensive and the downturn in manufacturing (of Western brand name goods) will pressure the central bank to look hard at devaluation again..

That’s my take on it guys.

Let me touch on the issue of ex-pats farming in Thailand. Other than for the exchange rate, which determines your capitalization, I think the issues that determine ex-pat farming success are of a more "down to earth" nature, and have little to do with the status of international finance!

While the OP makes the observation between myself and other ex-pats, its perhaps a good idea I put that difference into context.

Yes, my farm is large by Thai standards. In contrast to most ex-pats who followed other careers before coming out to Thailand, I have been here my entire adult/working life (indeed, I spent large parts of my childhood here as well, as both my parents and grandparents lived and worked in Thailand). Farming and Thailand for me was not a career/lifestyle change. However, I do share with many other ex-pats the “relationship with a Thai girl” as a part motivating factor in my decision to settle in Thailand. Rather, it was my language skills (as a result of spending large parts of my childhood in Thailand) that prompted my higher education sponsor to send me to Thailand to work in the 80's, and it was those same language skills that brought myself and the future wife together (who was studying in the US at the same time as me).

I never qualified as a farmer. I qualified as an agricultural engineer. Farming was a passion, though my training as an Ag engineer has played a large role in my farming success, so too has my wife’s support, and above all, her fathers support - who has acted as guarantor for bank loans/mortgages I have had to take out over the years.

There are 2 points in what I have shared above that I think go a long way towards determining weather or not an ex-pat is going to succeed in Thailand (farming, that is). If you came here firstly on the basis of a relationship with a local lass, would you be motivated to continue farming if that relationship folded?

If one can answer yes to that, then good for you - you have one of the requirements satisfied (requirements to succeed that is). My personal feeling has always been that those who set out to Thailand on the basis of a relationship with a local girl, and then take up farming as a career are not going to make much of it.

I can just hear the screams of disagreement ..................... let me put it this way: there’s a big diff between running a small holding to generate enough income to pay for the weekly beer, local bills ect and generate a little extra ....... If That’s your profile (and perhaps you have a pension income from back home to support you as well), no prob’s - you can get by just fine.

This is not the same as been a career farmer. Its those ex-pats who come out to Thailand in the anticipation that they are going to farm to generate enough income to pay the mortgage, support land purchase, purchase equipment, have and support a family, take the family away once a year to where ever for a holiday, save for the kids higher education - and save sufficient for you & yours retirement.

Now farming takes on a very different tone ............

It requires capitalization, education/training/experience - it is no less skill based than law or medicine - and however honorable and ambitious ones intentions maybe, the truth of the matter, is that for most ex-pats farming in Thailand, or attempting to do so at this level, it will be a “tempory life experience”. Most will move on at some point down the line for some or other reason (usually - but not always - when the relationship with the partner starts to crumble) - which is why I say: would you carry on farming in Thailand if you were not in a relationship with a Thai? If the answer is no, then it’s my opinion (note: my opinion) you shouldn’t start in the first place - there’s a load of other things to do.

This is not a criticism guys - it’s a straight forward observation. As it happens I take my hat off to all ex-pats who try farming. As all TV Farming in Thailand members know, it is not easy. It requires lots of hours and a lot of hard work to make a success of it. It takes balls.

Notwithstanding weather or not you agree with what I have said, it still stands that I do not believe now is the time to be starting any Ag type project if you are using forex to capitalize that project.

One of 2 things are going to happen sometime over the next 18months.

- The Baht is going to get significantly weaker

- the Baht will devaluate

Either is going to release for you significantly more TB than you are going to get at the moment. Hang onto your forex for the time been if you can. This has to be the best piece of “survival” advice I can add to the thread.

Edited October 24, 2008 by Maizefarmer