Capital Faces Oversupply Of Condo Units

[Pakboong]

...If you are unable to distinguish as to what is different between those previous recessions and

the severity and depth of what is happening now all around the world you are completely out of touch with reality

just have another drink if it makes you feel better ........... but you'll still not avoid the hangover

Ok, I'll bite.

Headline:

"U.S. employers eliminated 598,000 jobs in January, the most since the end of 1974,"

Do you remember 1974? I do and even though we did not have internet and places like this for people like you to express your hysteria, we did have the nightly news and all you saw was how bad it was for everyone and the world as we knew was soon going to end soon the dam_n Arabs were going to rule the world (or what was going to be left of it).

Of course, at the time, I was working full time, making more money then I ever had to that point, didn't know anyone that was really hurting, though obviously there were people who were, I just didn’t know any. And then, after a while (a long while it must have felt to some) things got better.

So again, explain how this one is going to be different, because if it is, we might as kill ourselves now and get it over with.

TH

1974-75 was the timeframe the US reduced it's military by more than a million.

That is pertinent how?

The 1974-1975 Recession in the U.S.

My point was at that time, many were predicating (though they had fewer platforms to do so at that time) the end of the world as we knew it and there was no way out.

Sound familar?

TH

1945 was another bad employment year.

[hhgz]

"If you are unable to distinguish as to what is different between those previous recessions and

the severity and depth of what is happening now all around the world you are completely out of touch with reality..."

You are firmly convinced that the current recession will never be resolved. Who cares?

You have posted a lot about your financial profile, and it's easy to see why you are so angry. You are from Australia, and your currency took a real dump. The downturn in the Australian real estate market has reduced the value of your portfolio. Your renters are fleeing, and your revenue stream that you use to live in Thailand, has been constricted. Interestingly, you are happy to discuss the shortcomings in Thailand and compare them to the wonderful land of Oz. The Ozzie politicos are completely honest, the democracy is strong, the visa laws never change, and Oz has an absolutely perfect condo law. Why has the Oz RE market collapsed? It's simple: there's a worldwide recession. Unfortunately, you don't accept that with Thailand. It can't be the worldwide recession, it has to have something to do with Thailand. Both you and your intellectual bosom buddy, bangonogo, have the same perspective. Let's use celestial mechanics as an example. "But, hhgz", you cry, "I believe in astrology, not astronomy!" Yes, we know, but hear me out. Until Kepler, everyone though that the universe was geocentric. Both the Church, and the Kings liked that. Kepler proposed - and Copernicus proved - that the universe was heliocentric. Copernicus nearly lost his head - literally - as he was branded a heretic. We can scoff as the ignorance of the world before Kepler but, how would the two different models differ to the casual observer? There would be no difference - it would look exactly the same. It's likely that the BKK RE market will lose value - there is a worldwide recession. You and babyblankie will claim that it doesn't matter WHY the BKK RE market loses value - you predicted it would lose value and it did, so there. The problem is that your perspective is wrong. Some people have commented that you and bb are like a broken clock. That's a terrible analogy, because a clock is correct twice a day. You and bb share a perspective that is wrong every day, all of the time.

[thaiwanderer]

Whilst there are some reasons to view the current recession being 'unchartered territory' 'nothing like this before' etc. etc. it is not the end of the world.

The doomsday scenarios many paint are way off. Yes I accept there is more pain for some / many to come and many companies and countries are not telling the whole truth of how bad things may get for them (not least becuase they don't actually know).

However all this needs to be tempered with the fact that yes things are bad but for many they are (felt to be) worse than anything that has gone before because they are feeling them now.

[zorro1]

Do you remember 1974? I do and even though we did not have internet and places like this for people like you to express your hysteria, we did have the nightly news and all you saw was how bad it was for everyone and the world as we knew was soon going to end soon the dam_n Arabs were going to rule the world (or what was going to be left of it).

Of course, at the time, I was working full time, making more money then I ever had to that point, didn't know anyone that was really hurting, though obviously there were people who were, I just didn't know any. And then, after a while (a long while it must have felt to some) things got better.

So again, explain how this one is going to be different, because if it is, we might as kill ourselves now and get it over with.

TH

I cant see where there is any element of hysteria in my posting only discussion and analysis

of a sizable looming problem...........

As this is the real estate thread I am reticent to go too far into depth and would prefer to discuss / debate

these issues with you in one of the other threads such as " Economic Crisis ".

I can easily answer your question but the very fact you are asking it suggests that

you have not extrapolated incidents which are building up around the world.

As you asked I'll give you three examples............

Yes we have been through many recessions before because after all its only defined as " a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth."

It is as simple as that. But this is not just a recession and it's nothing like the period of1974 as you described because at that

time USA the biggest enonomy in world wasnt effectively bankrupt.

This is different because these are unprecedented economic events that are occurring not just " a period of two quarters of negative GDP growth."

1. The bursting of the credit bubble

In 2009, the economic train wreck now in motion will occur. It will not be a one time event. It will be a successive series of

protracted crisis in conjunction with continuing breakdowns in access to credit, goods and services, an escalating

and cascading series of previously unimaginable events.

In today's monetarily debased markets, credit has become essential for all commercial activity.

This dream of bankers is the nightmare of producers and savers and credit becomes compounding debt which becomes

bankers' profits also resulting in increasing defaults and bankruptcies.

2. Unprecedented loss of trust

Second, we're going to have to get used to a loss of trust. All those rock-solid people and institutions that we trusted

with our money, our pensions and our kids' piggybank savings --- like Citigroup, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America ---

do not seem trustworthy anymore. Never before in my life have I looked around at every bank and

said, "I'm not sure I wouldn't prefer to put my money in in safe "

The Bernard Madoff scandal, of course, has only reinforced that loss of trust. His degree of betrayal

his alleged willingness to embezzle the life savings of people whom he had known his whole life is so

coldhearted that it charts new territory in human behavior. He's on his way to becoming an adjective.

Money managers are already being asked prove to prospective new clients that their internal safeguards

are "Madoff proof."

3. Unprecedented crowd violence around the world

This is potentially far worse than the " Arabs were going to rule "

Two weeks ago we saw it in Greece, last week in the The Times of London it said

about China, " Bankruptcies, unemployment and social unrest are spreading more

widely in China than officially reported, according to independent res

earch that paints an ominous picture for the world economy. "]

But as I said if you participate in one of many the other threads in Thai Visa you will read how ordinary U.S.

citizens are now turning extremely angry and unsurprisingly gun shops have recently been selling out of weapons and bullets.

One-man describes his shock at seeing hippies buying machine guns. These are things you will not

hear much about from the mainstream press for a number of reasons but surely you can see what will

happen when ( not if ) this stimulus package doesnt work -people in USA are very angry .

The Times recently reported a huge increase in people buying safes in which to keep their money instead of in the bank.

This doesnt feel like a recession...............it looks very much like a real world changing event

No need to kill yourself but I think it would be a pity if you were not prepared

Midas you need prozac. In the year 2010 all safes are programmed to scramble their codes.

[palm]

"If you are unable to distinguish as to what is different between those previous recessions and

the severity and depth of what is happening now all around the world you are completely out of touch with reality..."

You are firmly convinced that the current recession will never be resolved. Who cares?

You have posted a lot about your financial profile, and it's easy to see why you are so angry. You are from Australia, and your currency took a real dump. The downturn in the Australian real estate market has reduced the value of your portfolio. Your renters are fleeing, and your revenue stream that you use to live in Thailand, has been constricted. Interestingly, you are happy to discuss the shortcomings in Thailand and compare them to the wonderful land of Oz. The Ozzie politicos are completely honest, the democracy is strong, the visa laws never change, and Oz has an absolutely perfect condo law. Why has the Oz RE market collapsed? It's simple: there's a worldwide recession. Unfortunately, you don't accept that with Thailand. It can't be the worldwide recession, it has to have something to do with Thailand. Both you and your intellectual bosom buddy, bangonogo, have the same perspective. Let's use celestial mechanics as an example. "But, hhgz", you cry, "I believe in astrology, not astronomy!" Yes, we know, but hear me out. Until Kepler, everyone though that the universe was geocentric. Both the Church, and the Kings liked that. Kepler proposed - and Copernicus proved - that the universe was heliocentric. Copernicus nearly lost his head - literally - as he was branded a heretic. We can scoff as the ignorance of the world before Kepler but, how would the two different models differ to the casual observer? There would be no difference - it would look exactly the same. It's likely that the BKK RE market will lose value - there is a worldwide recession. You and babyblankie will claim that it doesn't matter WHY the BKK RE market loses value - you predicted it would lose value and it did, so there. The problem is that your perspective is wrong. Some people have commented that you and bb are like a broken clock. That's a terrible analogy, because a clock is correct twice a day. You and bb share a perspective that is wrong every day, all of the time.

Great post!

[donx]

"If you are unable to distinguish as to what is different between those previous recessions and

the severity and depth of what is happening now all around the world you are completely out of touch with reality..."

You are firmly convinced that the current recession will never be resolved. Who cares?

You have posted a lot about your financial profile, and it's easy to see why you are so angry. You are from Australia, and your currency took a real dump. The downturn in the Australian real estate market has reduced the value of your portfolio. Your renters are fleeing, and your revenue stream that you use to live in Thailand, has been constricted. Interestingly, you are happy to discuss the shortcomings in Thailand and compare them to the wonderful land of Oz. The Ozzie politicos are completely honest, the democracy is strong, the visa laws never change, and Oz has an absolutely perfect condo law. Why has the Oz RE market collapsed? It's simple: there's a worldwide recession. Unfortunately, you don't accept that with Thailand. It can't be the worldwide recession, it has to have something to do with Thailand. Both you and your intellectual bosom buddy, bangonogo, have the same perspective. Let's use celestial mechanics as an example. "But, hhgz", you cry, "I believe in astrology, not astronomy!" Yes, we know, but hear me out. Until Kepler, everyone though that the universe was geocentric. Both the Church, and the Kings liked that. Kepler proposed - and Copernicus proved - that the universe was heliocentric. Copernicus nearly lost his head - literally - as he was branded a heretic. We can scoff as the ignorance of the world before Kepler but, how would the two different models differ to the casual observer? There would be no difference - it would look exactly the same. It's likely that the BKK RE market will lose value - there is a worldwide recession. You and babyblankie will claim that it doesn't matter WHY the BKK RE market loses value - you predicted it would lose value and it did, so there. The problem is that your perspective is wrong. Some people have commented that you and bb are like a broken clock. That's a terrible analogy, because a clock is correct twice a day. You and bb share a perspective that is wrong every day, all of the time.

Now I'm not normally one to defend posts made by midas since I think his view of the recession is overly pessimistic, but I feel that you are incorrect about his view of the Thai real estate market. It is my understanding that he claims that the world crisis will have a strong effect on Thailand. That is why he keeps on referring to what is being said about the US, Europe, etc.

As a side note, backfilp (yes I know that hhgz, glyph, backflip are one and the same), if you don't want us to recognize you in the future, learn how to properly use the quote post feature of this forum. For as long as you have posting on here, you should have been able to figure it out by now. The way you quote what others have posted gives you away.

[Thai at Heart]

It is absolutely inevitable that Bangkok prices for condos will fall for several reasons, the obvious one being the current global recession. The other obvious one is do people actually want to live downtown in Bangkok if they have a choice?

What I fail to understand, is that if this drop in prices along with the inevitable slowdown in the Thai economy can cause a slump and a currency problem akin to 97. Didn't people learn their lessons then? Rampant off plan investment and turning property got Thailand into the crap that time around, and now possibly it is here again. This type of investment is probably no better than day trading.

Living and looking around Bangkok, there has obviously been over construction in several areas in the last couple of years (Sukhumvit being the obvious area), didn't people remember 97? I only hope for the sake of the country that the debt is THB denominated, and that may be the surviving grace.

Fortunately the Thai banks appear not to have touched the toxic "sub-prime" (isn't this the most wonderful turn of media phrase? something like "shell shock" becoming "post traumatic stress disorder" between wars) assets so they are reportedly adequately capitalised. But where did it become set in stone that every square inch north and south of the first 100 sois of Sukhumvit should be turned into a condo hi-rise?

Prices were so obviously inflated 2 years ago around Sukhumvit that I feared for a slump and banked my money believing that prices had to come down. Well, here it is. How low does anyone think per sqm can go?

To hhgz, I do believe that this is the mother of all storm coming. The level of international trade means that the world is more intertwined economically than ever before. The situation that will hit the Thai property market is no different than has hit many other markets also. Only 6 months ago, colleagues were saying I was an idiot for not buying apartments in Shanghai. I am no lilly livered home stayer, but what the hel_l do I know about the Shanghai real estate market. It is a dump of a place, with oodles of land everywhere.

There was no fundamental reason to pay. Maybe Bangkok is different, but if 1000 companies relocate their offices to Samut Prakarn how many renters does that pull out of the centre of Bangkok?

[zorro1]

It is absolutely inevitable that Bangkok prices for condos will fall for several reasons, the obvious one being the current global recession. The other obvious one is do people actually want to live downtown in Bangkok if they have a choice?

What I fail to understand, is that if this drop in prices along with the inevitable slowdown in the Thai economy can cause a slump and a currency problem akin to 97. Didn't people learn their lessons then? Rampant off plan investment and turning property got Thailand into the crap that time around, and now possibly it is here again. This type of investment is probably no better than day trading.

Living and looking around Bangkok, there has obviously been over construction in several areas in the last couple of years (Sukhumvit being the obvious area), didn't people remember 97? I only hope for the sake of the country that the debt is THB denominated, and that may be the surviving grace.

Fortunately the Thai banks appear not to have touched the toxic "sub-prime" (isn't this the most wonderful turn of media phrase? something like "shell shock" becoming "post traumatic stress disorder" between wars) assets so they are reportedly adequately capitalised. But where did it become set in stone that every square inch north and south of the first 100 sois of Sukhumvit should be turned into a condo hi-rise?

Prices were so obviously inflated 2 years ago around Sukhumvit that I feared for a slump and banked my money believing that prices had to come down. Well, here it is. How low does anyone think per sqm can go?

To hhgz, I do believe that this is the mother of all storm coming. The level of international trade means that the world is more intertwined economically than ever before. The situation that will hit the Thai property market is no different than has hit many other markets also. Only 6 months ago, colleagues were saying I was an idiot for not buying apartments in Shanghai. I am no lilly livered home stayer, but what the hel_l do I know about the Shanghai real estate market. It is a dump of a place, with oodles of land everywhere.

There was no fundamental reason to pay. Maybe Bangkok is different, but if 1000 companies relocate their offices to Samut Prakarn how many renters does that pull out of the centre of Bangkok?

They should have fallen dramatically 3 months ago in line with the rest of the world. They haven't fallen 1 cent. If you believe Midas who believes everything he reads in the papers and then adds a spook factor himself of 50% then we are spiralling into a deep depression. But Midas is an at home self appointed analyst . If his dream comes true then yes their will be a property slump and as the world goes into total meltdown and may never recover in your lifetime. But hey show me a link to a fire sale here and I will gladly accept it . so far NO one has been able to show proof of a decline in property asking price. Speculation is just that, speculation

[ray08]

Zorro , Are you seriously saying that property values all around has been falling ( agreed ) ,But Thailand is completly imune and not even down 1 cent,

Mate ,don't you think that view is very extreme ,look at the papers ,every day ,developers and even more interesting REAL ESTATE agents are saying the market in in deep Sh#t.

I noticed you say no decline in asking price ,you know as well as I that means nothing ,Asking price is just that Asking price, There are very very little transactions happening , so in fact one can say no real sales, when you can't sell sell a product ,surely a red flag must come up that there is a problem,Maybe people do not even bother to reduce Asking price because in any case thay know the property will not sell.

You can see in other countries real reductions in prices is because these are mature markets ,pick up the Sun Herald,Telegrath etc or any Sunday paper in Oz and you will see the results of sales for the previous week ,Sales ,Auctions results ,Passed in ,withdrawn etc,

In Thailand no such info available .a good smokescreen as very hard to judge the market ,but even the most ardent supporter of Thai Real Estate would admit it has been plagued by the economic crisis,

I for one would love it if Thai real estate was strong and no economic crisis ,everyone would be making money,but for now not the case.

[midas]

Zorro you are so funny !!

They should have fallen dramatically 3 months ago in line with the rest of the world.

Zorro you are like a broken record -how many times now have you use the term " should have " ? Should have

by the standards of the great zorro1 or who ? Who's timetable are you using?

If you believe Midas who believes everything he reads in the papers and

then adds a spook factor himself of 50% then we are spiralling into a deep depression.

So zorro please enlighten me-if according to you I cannot get my information

from the newspapers ( including the dramatic revelation in the Bangkok Post about the

lingering debt overhang in Thailand from the 1997 crisis which I noticed you haven't responded to )

where can I get from- just listening to you ?

But Midas is an at home self appointed analyst . If his dream comes true then yes their will be a

property slump and as the world goes into total meltdown and may never recover in your lifetime.

It is not a dream that this happens zorro- it is simply to submit an alternative perspective from that of

property " spivs " like you who's totally one-sided argument lacking

any substance other than because it hasn't happened now it's not going to happen in the future

- what brilliant logic

Speculation is just that, speculation

Aha - you said it brother - THE IMMORTAL WORDS OF THE GREAT ZORRO1

like your expectations that property prices

will continue to increase

[midas]

Zorro , Are you seriously saying that property values all around has been falling ( agreed ) ,But Thailand is completly imune and not even down 1 cent,

Mate ,don't you think that view is very extreme ,look at the papers ,every day ,developers and even more interesting REAL ESTATE agents are saying the market in in deep Sh#t.

I noticed you say no decline in asking price ,you know as well as I that means nothing ,Asking price is just that Asking price, There are very very little transactions happening , so in fact one can say no real sales, when you can't sell sell a product ,surely a red flag must come up that there is a problem,Maybe people do not even bother to reduce Asking price because in any case thay know the property will not sell.

You can see in other countries real reductions in prices is because these are mature markets ,pick up the Sun Herald,Telegrath etc or any Sunday paper in Oz and you will see the results of sales for the previous week ,Sales ,Auctions results ,Passed in ,withdrawn etc,

In Thailand no such info available .a good smokescreen as very hard to judge the market ,but even the most ardent supporter of Thai Real Estate would admit it has been plagued by the economic crisis,

I for one would love it if Thai real estate was strong and no economic crisis ,everyone would be making money,but for now not the case.

ray if you look back in this thread you will see the great zorro couldn't even recognise

the significance of how rental values and capital values are related, so I don't think there's much hope for him

to understand any of the other fundamentals of the real estate market. That is why I keep posting

because in real estate it is " caveat emptor " and I just think people just be aware of

all sides of the argument before relying on the one sided views of a real estate speculator like zorro

[zorro1]

Well Midas very colorful posts (pun)

I'm still waiting for proof of property pricing in decline. Do yourself a favour, I don't know where you are but you appear to be on TV 24/7 which can effect ones mental health. If you have time ,go and visit a few new developments and ask for a discount. I did a few months back and apart from the usuall mark up and then markdown of 3 to 5 % you get zip else. Although some are spicing it up fully furnished. hardly a slump

Why keep quoting the papers? that's how they make their money Midas by spreading fear and the herd follow. If you want to be a sheep good for you. My purchase at the trendy and unfortunately I posted my intentions here got the usual 5k life savings in the bank response from posters here. Rent, don't buy what you can walk away from blah blah. Building sold out and last condo went for 28,ooo sqm more off plan just a a few months back during the worlds biggest crisis. Hardly a slump , that's a mega increase from a few years back. Also incredible opps in Stock Market , buy when others are fearful

Midas the sheep.

[midas]

A big difference now compared to the Thailand crisis in 1997 is the means to exchange information on this internet

Buying real estate means spending a big amount of hard earned money so I believe

it pays to try to learn and understand as much as possible why some financial experts are so concerned

about what has happened and how it can affect you BEFORE buying anywhere

I was just recommended to read this book to understand

what is happening to investments including real estate around the

world and in section 3 it even has a section entitled " Canaries "

and the very pertinent topic " Real estate prices always go up ? " and there is a section

in the FAQ called " What will be the biggest changes in the housing market " ?

http://www.amazon.com/Wall-Street-Journal-...e/dp/0061788406

by clicking on this picture on the website you can see an instant sample

of table of contents and first pages. The author- Dave Kansas is Editor of

an online personal finance joint venture with Dow

and was he editor in chief of TheStreet.com during its formative years.

[midas]

I'm still waiting for proof of property pricing in decline.

hey zorro1

The book I recommended people to read even includes a section

in the FAQ which made me think of you - it is called

" Why did the crisis take a relatively long time to unfold " ?

Maybe they should add another section entitled " Because zorro says if it doesn't happen quickly-

it's not go to happen at all "

[zorro1]

Heres how I see it, where to best invest?

1.cash is king , Bulls*** You wont be getting any interest from the banks

2.Real estate? incredible opportunities world wide and interest rates in Oz are halved from 6 months ago and properties plummet

3. Buy real estate in Thailand? very conservative they have no exposure to sub prime and as you mentioned immature market so prices stay the same at worst for next 2 years

NUMBER 1 is stocks. most have come off 70-90% off there highs just 6 months ago.

unless your a yank forget about wall st. The ASX his totally ignoring it as we realise that America is bankrupt so why should we follow their lead so its great to see ASX standing on its feet . We keep having green days even when the NYSE was -250 last week. So when is the best time to invest? WHEN OTHERS ARE FEARFULL, whats the point of jumping on board when everyone else does? you miss the bounce, takes kahunas of steel though

Edit

I bought bhp @22 (now 32) and rio @ 35 (50) ( most said they would go to ten bucks LOL. I have stop loses in place that if and when your depression arrives will release me a profit = to a years wages for some. So your approach of waiting it out is THE worse case as you should know the biggest profits come from the biggest down turns

[midas]

prices stay the same at worst for next 2 years

well if that isnt " speculation " what is ?

Buy real estate in Thailand? very conservative they have no exposure to sub prime

It's not only exposure to sub prime that could force the market down? What about if there is just simply nobody around to buy? And this time around

with people being able to communicate much more readily on the Internet it's going to be harder for real estate salesman

to " claim " Thailand's condominium market is miraculously different to any other country in the world because " prices stay the same " here ALWAYS

[zorro1]

Midas I think whats really peeing you off and other doomsayers such as BINGO bongo is that even before the recession you both desperately wanted a housing bubble bust here. Now that the world has imploded it must be extremely frustrating for you

Speculation based on fact my friend is better than speculation based on analysts who got it all soooo wrong. Why Midas would you believe them now? I generally do the reverse. They overshot on the upside and will overshoot the downside. They themselves should be shot and either learn their craft or go on unemployment benefits.

Midas do the rounds and educate yourself rather than rely on authors. Many developments just pop in make an offer. In the mean time keep paying rent if it makes you happy, nothing like flushing your money down the toilet. Anyway nice sparring with you but going out for lunch and enjoy the day

[midas]

Midas I think whats really peeing you off and other doomsayers such as BINGO bongo is that even before the recession you both desperately wanted a housing bubble bust here. Now that the world has imploded it must be extremely frustrating for you

Speculation based on fact my friend is better than speculation based on analysts who got it all soooo wrong. Why Midas would you believe them now? I generally do the reverse. They overshot on the upside and will overshoot the downside. They themselves should be shot and either learn their craft or go on unemployment benefits.

Midas do the rounds and educate yourself rather than rely on authors. Many developments just pop in make an offer. In the mean time keep paying rent if it makes you happy, nothing like flushing your money down the toilet. Anyway nice sparring with you but going out for lunch and enjoy the day

I can assure you completely zorro that I have not been " peed off " as you so eloquently put it. I cannot speak for BINGO bongo

because he never supports his views with anything. At least I try to do so - and you don't provide anything either to support your views?

What motive have I possibly got to be " peed off " ? I don't want a housing bubble bust in Thailand but what I do want

is to help prevent uninformed and new expat arrivals from falling under the spell of people like you who it's abundantly clear

have a special interest in putting forward your totally unsupported argument about the aparent " strength " of the condominium market - THAT IS ALL - that is why I will continue to post here .

I do hope most readers on this forum will be able to see very clearly through you because the very way you respond

says so much about you. First you tell me not to rely on information in newspapers and now you are suggesting

not to rely on information from books.

Zorro please come up with one reliable and tangible piece of information regarding the so-called strength of the

Bangkok condominium market and I would be happy to take it on board.

Yes you probably do need a good lunch after suddenly " coming out of retirement on the keyboard " and then

hitting it with such ferocity

[ray08]

Edit

I bought bhp @22 (now 32) and rio @ 35 (50) ( most said they would go to ten bucks LOL. I have stop loses in place that if and when your depression arrives will release me a profit = to a years wages for some. So your approach of waiting it out is THE worse case as you should know the biggest profits come from the biggest down turns

Can't help but not believe you on this one ,BHP hit $ 22 for about 2 days in the last 6 months , and Rio hit below $35 for about a week only ,again in last 6 months ,the odds of picking the exact bottom on those trades and buying the shares are the same as 3 legged horse winning the Melbourne Cup.

Mate if you were a witness in a trial you would have zero credibility by now,

If you want to talk about some shares , please pick the future not the past ,

Back to The Thai condo market ,downturn for sure ,profits a long way down the line

[zorro1]

Actually I hit Bhp twice mid to late twenties and sold at 30 because I was nervous. Couldn'T believe my luck when I watched it slide day after day back to 22 where i watched 6 hours a day for days and jumped in as soon as it got some volume. The split with Rio pushed up BHP $3 in one day alone. I then watched rio go to $33 or $31 cant remember and bought it when after it bottomed on the WAY UP missed bottom by $4. So don't question what IM doing , Its fear that pulled people out of the markets and allowed me an opportunity of a lifetime. Its also fear mongerers like Midas who scare the life out people so they hide their money under the mattress. One of his posts suggest a safe lol

If you like I can give you the link to hot copper forum where I declared I was in at $22 . Worry about your own weak little kahunas it took a lot of courage to do what I did whilst most where saying BHP would go to $10. I thought I paid to much at the time

Edit

I also had a dabble with bnb just 7k and the day after it went belly up so Happy to disclose bad and the good but bnb was just play money compared to bhp and rio

[zorro1]

Here is a tip for you ray leighton holdings just dropped from 28 to a double bottom of 16.40. (in a few weeks) Im in it just under $18. hasnt done much since but it will. BKK Condo market will hold up well just think location, bts bts bts....

[midas]

To stimulate further discussion about condominium values

has anyone reading this thread considered the huge number of citizens of the United Kingdom

living in condominiums in Thailand? These are ones they have either purchased

for their retirement or ones they are currently renting?

The question I pose is could the condo market in Bangkok be noticeably affected

if suddenly UK government pension payments from Britain were under risk?

We would never before have considered the slightest chance anything serious would happen

to the British economy even though only yesterday alarm bells were ringing because Lloyd's bank

may now have to be nationalized by the UK government.........

But it is worth looking at the video of Niall Ferguson at this link. Ferguson a respected economic historian,

warns of other European countries facing an Iceland style bankruptcy. 'Switzerland is first in line...

and Britain is not far behind,' he says

http://www.webtvhub.com/bankrupt-britain/

[Chaimai]

The question I pose is could the condo market in Bangkok be noticeably affected

if suddenly UK government pension payments from Britain were under risk?

Scaremongering reaches a new level !

I have absolutely NO FEARS about (a) HSBC's ability to continue to pay my occupational pension and, much later, the British government's ability to pay my state pension.

The tenuous link to BKK condo prices leads me to believe that Midas has too much time on his hands. Do/say something constructive for a change man. I am becoming bored with all these prophets of doom - we are in the middle of a fairly deep recession - the world is not burning !

[midas]

Scaremongering reaches a new level !

I have absolutely NO FEARS about (a) HSBC's ability to continue to pay my occupational pension and, much later, the British government's ability to pay my state pension.

The tenuous link to BKK condo prices leads me to believe that Midas has too much time on his hands. Do/say something constructive for a change man. I am becoming bored with all these prophets of doom - we are in the middle of a fairly deep recession - the world is not burning !

Chaimai

Why is it scaremongering to post these remarks in a thread which discusses " Capital Faces Oversupply Of Condo Units " ?

You seem to have the same view as zorro. He couldn't see the connection between rental values and capital values and

now you refer to what I said as beia " the tenuous link to BKK condo prices " ( It is certainly more relevant in this thread

than discussing his strategies of selling stocks of shares ) ?

So you are saying don't see the connection between something which could possibly ( I'm not saying it's going to yet )

impact the spending patterns of the citizens who represent a large part of

the sale and rental market for condominiums in Bangkok?

If you don't like discussing things -simply don't read or participate

in this thread !

Six months ago I bet if you had said to someone that Iceland would be bankrupt in 2009 they

would have called you a nutcase -so don't tell me it's not possible and have you looked at the video?

[midas]

Scaremongering reaches a new level !

Chaimai

This is certainly NOT scaremongering.....it is called " keeping a watchful eye "

and " joining the dots "- if this happened in UK it will certainly have a

significant affect on the Bangkok market..............

This small passage in a well regarded journal......

Iceland goes bankrupt

BUSINESSWEEK

The biggest dangers are for the UK and Switzerland. These countries, although much

bigger than Iceland, are major financial intermediaries with big external debts.

What’s more, they are outside the major currency blocs, with debt denominated in

foreign currencies. That means if their currency starts to devalue, their debts will

become more and more onerous.

And now we are in very tricky waters, which are looking uncomfortably like the

Great Depression. The major players are the U.S., the Eurozone, Japan, and

China. The question is: Will they act collectively, or

will they engage beggar-thy neighbor policies? ( WE ALREADY HAVE THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION - " Buy America " )

Michael Mandel

[zorro1]

Scaremongering reaches a new level !

Chaimai

This is certainly NOT scaremongering.....it is called " keeping a watchful eye "

and " joining the dots "- if this happened in UK it will certainly have a

significant affect on the Bangkok market..............

This small passage in a well regarded journal......

Iceland goes bankrupt

BUSINESSWEEK

The biggest dangers are for the UK and Switzerland. These countries, although much

bigger than Iceland, are major financial intermediaries with big external debts.

What's more, they are outside the major currency blocs, with debt denominated in

foreign currencies. That means if their currency starts to devalue, their debts will

become more and more onerous.

And now we are in very tricky waters, which are looking uncomfortably like the

Great Depression. The major players are the U.S., the Eurozone, Japan, and

China. The question is: Will they act collectively, or

will they engage beggar-thy neighbor policies? ( WE ALREADY HAVE THE ANSWER TO THAT QUESTION - " Buy America " )

Michael Mandel

Midas, You have lost the plot. Your sanity is now surely in question and you should stop as your posts are now becoming embarrassing.

[midas]

For anyone interested in reading comments other than from zorro I post

this for information purposes from todays UK Daily Telegraph :-

Failure to save East Europe will lead to worldwide meltdown

The unfolding debt drama in Russia, Ukraine, and the EU states of Eastern

Europe has reached acute danger point.

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

Last Updated: 2:05AM GMT 15 Feb 2009

If mishandled by the world policy establishment, this debacle is big enough to shatter the fragile banking systems of Western Europe and set off round two of our financial Götterdämmerung.

Austria's finance minister Josef Pröll made frantic efforts last week to put together a €150bn rescue for the ex-Soviet bloc. Well he might. His banks have lent €230bn to the region, equal to 70pc of Austria's GDP.

"A failure rate of 10pc would lead to the collapse of the Austrian financial sector," reported Der Standard in Vienna. Unfortunately, that is about to happen.

Stephen Jen, currency chief at Morgan Stanley, said Eastern Europe has borrowed $1.7 trillion abroad, much on short-term maturities. It must repay – or roll over – $400bn this year, equal to a third of the region's GDP. Good luck. The credit window has slammed shut.

Not even Russia can easily cover the $500bn dollar debts of its oligarchs while oil remains near $33 a barrel. The budget is based on Urals crude at $95. Russia has bled 36pc of its foreign reserves since August defending the rouble.

"This is the largest run on a currency in history," said Mr Jen.

Spain is up to its neck in Latin America, which has belatedly joined the slump (Mexico's car output fell 51pc in January, and Brazil lost 650,000 jobs in one month). Britain and Switzerland are up to their necks in Asia.

Under a "Taylor Rule" analysis, the European Central Bank already needs to cut rates to zero and then purchase bonds and Pfandbriefe on a huge scale. It is constrained by geopolitics – a German-Dutch veto – and the Maastricht Treaty.

But I digress. It is East Europe that is blowing up right now. Erik Berglof, EBRD's chief economist, told me the region may need €400bn in help to cover loans and prop up the credit system.

The sums needed are beyond the limits of the IMF, which has already bailed out Hungary, Ukraine, Latvia, Belarus, Iceland, and Pakistan – and Turkey next – and is fast exhausting its own $200bn (€155bn) reserve. We are nearing the point where the IMF may have to print money for the world, using arcane powers to issue Special Drawing Rights.

"This is much worse than the East Asia crisis in the 1990s," said Lars Christensen, at Danske Bank.

"There are accidents waiting to happen across the region, but the EU institutions don't have any framework for dealing with this. The day they decide not to save one of these one countries will be the trigger for a massive crisis with contagion spreading into the EU.".

If Deutsche Bank is correct, the economy will have shrunk by nearly 9pc before the end of this year. This is the sort of level that stokes popular revolt.

FULL ARTICLE HERE :- http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment...e-meltdown.html