Stockmarket Trading, Forex, Commodities.

[Paulo1]

Time to go long ?

'Still short GLD and am watching 1705 , daily close below will most likely see a move to 1678.50 .

Silver short from 35 and watching 31.85 and 31.'

Gold –Achieves a 2 close's below the 55-dma (1,714).Gold has been tactically bearish since the initial break below the 21-dma on 9^th October when the market reached a stretched period of 39 consecutive daily sessions above. In February, the market closed below the 21-dma after another 39 consecutive sessions trading above it and managed to decline down to a low of 1,527 over the course of under two months. The close basis break below the 55-dma is now indicative that further weakness is likely. An important next support/target to watch now should be near the range highs from early June at ~1,640-1,629. At present the 1700 and 1680 are the near term targets to watch.

I am still holding shorts.

[Paulo1]

Long GBPCAD 1.5834 stop 5790

What a screw up closing that for -9. Had a 140 pip move.

I was confused at first trying to find where you had a loss as it rode so high after your call, you must have gotten out right away?

Yes, watching TV and trading at the same time is not recommended. I notive today its up about 200 pips. Nevermind. there is always another.

Edited October 25, 2012 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

eur/jpy confluence with price 5m 200sma and 100sma also H1 100 sma

gone long eur/jpy @ 103.85 seeing H1 sma 100 as support tight stop @ 103.65 targetting 105 again.

Did that trade work out?

[griffer]

interesting your comments on gold..

Seasonally a better time for gold now...I would be looking for a basing pattern between here and possibly 1650....I'm never good at picking exact bottoms so tend to ease myself in...hoping for a run up above 1800...

apple missed estimates...will be interesting few days in US markets...

[Paulo1]

interesting your comments on gold..

Seasonally a better time for gold now...I would be looking for a basing pattern between here and possibly 1650....I'm never good at picking exact bottoms so tend to ease myself in...hoping for a run up above 1800...

apple missed estimates...will be interesting few days in US markets...

USDJPY – Builds a significant constructive backdrop.Perfect hold of the 20th August high (79.66), next level up 80.63; bias higher

USDJPY Weekly/Monthly – Long term charts also support a bullish bias.The weekly chart has posted a series of positive weekly candle patterns, while the month is displaying positive divergence

EURJPY – Attempting to push above the downtrend from April ’11 (103.96).Weekly chart looks like a bullish wedge like pattern, where the trend across the highs comes in at 107

EURUSD – Drifts lower after an attempted test of 1.3145/1.3172.Nearing the uptrend from 25th July (1.2905); a break lower will be cause for concern given the similar decline in German/US spread basket

EURGBP – Trades back below its prior downtrend from July ’11 at 0.8050. Below this, the market looks susceptible to a move down to 0.7989-0.7971

EURCAD – Consolidates after an anticipated break above the 200-dma.1.2827-1.2885 is a strong congestion zone that the market will likely struggle to break away from

AUDUSD – Not the clearest chart, but now back above its 200-dma (1.0343).Since failing to achieve a close below the 6^th September low of 1.0165, AUD has seen a fair amount of whipsaws

NZDUSD & AUDNZD – NZDUSD corrects above its pivot support at 0.8150/1.8158 while AUDNZD comes into resistance at 1.2658/1.2664.Overall both are beginning a material turn in trend.

AUDNZD Monthly – Price action has behaved in a similar manner to the late-‘90s/early-‘00s.This suggests that a very similar large multi-year H&S top like structure is forming

S&P – Makes a confirmed daily close below 1,422 support.Small relief today but the bias is still skewed lower below the important 1,422 (prior support) current resistance; below= 1,380-1,376

Gold – Reaches its initial target test of 1,700.This was the target since breaking the trend of 39 consecutive daily closes above the 21-dma, Gold may form a base pattern here at 1700. just have to watch and wait for a

reversal signal, namely a candle. Hammer, Engulfing etc. This has been an awesome trade.

This document was produced by myself and student trade partner Simon.

Edited October 26, 2012 by Paulo1

[bkkjam]

I am in these trades this Friday. I sold AUD/NZD at 1.2650 based on 50% retracement of daily pin bar, stop at 1.2700, target 1.2500. I also sold CAD/CHF on break of low of daily pin at 0.9365 with stop at 0.9454, target 0.9250.

Any comments appreciated.

[tdm]

eur/jpy confluence with price 5m 200sma and 100sma also H1 100 sma

gone long eur/jpy @ 103.85 seeing H1 sma 100 as support tight stop @ 103.65 targetting 105 again.

Did that trade work out?

Stopped out for -20. Had a small 'hedge' short usd/jpy in place playing the 80.00-80.30 in @ 80.327 out at 80.082 to cover the overnight risk. have noticed this latest up move in usd/jpy seems to move in steps, stay in the range for a bit, then move up a step ala Jessie Livermore.

[tdm]

I am in these trades this Friday. I sold AUD/NZD at 1.2650 based on 50% retracement of daily pin bar, stop at 1.2700, target 1.2500. I also sold CAD/CHF on break of low of daily pin at 0.9365 with stop at 0.9454, target 0.9250.

Any comments appreciated.

Nice trades, nice and simple, risk defined.

[Paulo1]

I am in these trades this Friday. I sold AUD/NZD at 1.2650 based on 50% retracement of daily pin bar, stop at 1.2700, target 1.2500. I also sold CAD/CHF on break of low of daily pin at 0.9365 with stop at 0.9454, target 0.9250.

Any comments appreciated.

Nice trades. Using the daily and weekly for direction is the way to go. I like the fact you have not made a mess of your charts. Keeping it simple. For me, I prefer not to use the grid.

I am short the AUDUSD from 1.03379 today, similar set-up to AUDNZD.

[Paulo1]

Vanatge FX have just updated their platform. Looks really good for MT4.

www.VantageFX.com

Presently long EU 1.2970, Cable 6088 , AUDJPY 82.79, EURGBP 8038.

Have not posted as its been quiet due to US storms etc.

[Paulo1]

Great Tools.

http://www.tools4meta.com/#/Products/DetachedWindows4

[griffer]

I've pulled stop to 0 on first gold long and added another...

[Paulo1]

www.floatingcharts.com This is also good and they have an awesome news indicator.

Awesome Griffer.

Am looking around 1721.70 to go long.

[Paulo1]

Vanatge FX have just updated their platform. Looks really good for MT4.

www.VantageFX.com

Presently long EU 1.2970, Cable 6088 , AUDJPY 82.79, EURGBP 8038.

Have not posted as its been quiet due to US storms etc.

EU produced 35 pips profit then went short at 1.03009. presently holding 45 toat 80.

Cable , still long from 6088 up 39..

AY close +22

EG close at +23

Earlier on I had loss on EURUSD for 27 pips. Got caught on the false break lower out of the triangle. last night.

Edited November 1, 2012 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

www.floatingcharts.com This is also good and they have an awesome news indicator.

Awesome Griffer.

Am looking around 1721.70 to go long.

Triggered at 1721.70.

http://codebase.mql4.com/4557 Bar timer.

Edited November 1, 2012 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

EURGBP trade i went short on the 5min signal. earlier. 8032.

[Paulo1]

www.floatingcharts.com This is also good and they have an awesome news indicator.

Awesome Griffer.

Am looking around 1721.70 to go long.

Was stopped out on the Gold trade.

Had a good week trading the shorter timeframes.

Only really traded 2days last week.

No. Days Traded: 2 days Avg Daily Return: 11.27%

Avg Monthly Return: 23.29%

Profit Factor: 8.55

Profit factor is a ratio between total profits from Winning Trades vs total losses from Losing Trades.

A Number above 1 indicates profitable trading, and below 1 indicates losses

Win Ratio: 83%

Trades (won/total): 29 / 35 Long / Short: 23 / 12

Avg Trade Duration: 6h 1 lot = 100,000 units.

Lots: 151.6

Edited November 3, 2012 by Paulo1

[griffer]

amazing returns paulo...

i was knocked out of gold too...all part of the journey....let's see if it sets up next week with all the US election stuff et cetera...

[Paulo1]

Gold sell entry was triggered at 1773.50 stop 1774.16.

Am still short with this position and you will read I said to a close below 1678, last nights close was 1677.

Griffer also mentioned to look for a base pattern around 1650.

Pending a few levels 1625 is worth watching.

Most of my trades last week were using 4hr, 1hr, and 5 min for entry .

Biggest trade was selling the EURUSD at 1.30009. 31/10/12. It was a perfect 1hr and 4hr reversal candle at 50% fib. Who said fibs are nothing more than lines on a chart. . Was an idiot on this forum.

EU and EG charts attached.

[Paulo1]

Did a few trades last week but not much.

From my trading diary.

GOLD sell entry was triggered at 1773.50 stop 1774.16. , This trade was stopped out at profit stop 1704 on that big move US election day.

GOLD – An extremely volatile week. If weekly close is above 1,732 on Friday it will post a bullish weekly reversal from the 55-wma, at face value quite a positive signal. (55 wma is Weekly 55sma)

Big Bears.The charts i am alerted to looking at the monthly and weekly are S&P. Dow 30, Dax, Ftse, and the Nikkei225, The N225 on friday form a massive hammer on the daily after completing at 4hr H/S pattern. The daily swings are huge so be aware.

S&P – Now putting pressure on its primary uptrend from the September ’11 lows at 1,387. A weekly close below could potentially open an historic comparison projection of ~1,319

S&P vs VIX – Both have this time broken notable pivots simultaneously. This should indicate that the recent turn lower in the S&P is more sustainable.

EURUSD – Putting pressure on an important support band from 1.2771 to 1.2738. A clean daily close below could open a sharp decline. Next support 1.2474/1.2309. Closed 1.2708. Shorts sort.

USDJPY – Holding up relatively well, but the deteriorating cross asset picture is likely to prevent any meaningful rally taking place for now. Overall, still looks a buy on dips. Last price 79.82 . Daily close displays a Engilfing candle pattern and below 200 dma.

EURJPY – Structurally also looks like it’s basing but for now just not able to sustain upward momentum. A deeper pull back is possible, particularly given yield correlations. 98 .58 support.

NZDUSD – A quickly deteriorating picture. This could be a notable downside turn beginning. Bearish weekly reversal with a close below 0.8182 at 5pm NY on Friday. Closed at 8140. support layer , 8105 to 8075.

Edited November 10, 2012 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

Cable. 1.5850 key zone look for a reversal around that number. Weekly support 5750

Edited November 12, 2012 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

If you can not make money from this. STOP TRADING

Main Themes

1. USDJPY: A structural base and turn in monthly chart trend?..

-AA number of signals have come together simultaneously on the monthly chart to argue that a major turn in underlying trend should now be under way

-The key to opening a material rally towards the high-90s and possibly 100 should be a clean/clear weekly close above 84.18-85.53

-If this is the correct interpretation, the setup coming together now on USDJPY could become comparable to EURUSD’s base and eventual upside turn from the ’2000 low at 0.8228

2. NIKKEI: Multi-year shift in relative performance and trend?..

Some of the most interesting asset markets charts at this point are the multi-year G3 benchmark equity index ratios

-The Nikkei appears well set to make a major turn, potentially becoming the out-performer. Over recent months this has tended to be correlated to JPY-weakness

-Its own individual setup also looks very constructive, with a monthly close above the downtrend from the April ’10 high potentially targeting at least 12,200

3. EUR: Peripheral stabilisation and recovery in EUR/Crosses?..

-Over recent weeks the strongest cross asset guide to the EUR’s performance has been the strength of peripheral asset markets

-As broad guides, both the Italian and Spanish benchmark equity indices (MIB and IBEX) appear to have based and may well recover significantly further over time

-With this in mind it seems quite feasible EUR continues to perform relatively well, particularly in the crosses. EURJPY and EURCHF stand out as two potential bullish contenders

4. AUD: In the process of peaking, likely set to under-perform?..

-First of all to put things into perspective, the AUD/Broad Index^(*) rallied ~52.8% from the ’08 low to this year’s high, that means AUD ralliedon average ~52.8% vs every “Old World G10” currency

-It appears that a structural top on the index is being set and the AUD may now enter at least a multi-month corrective under-performance phase

-AUDUSD isn’t particularly clear, but in crosses such as EURAUD and AUDCAD the AUD looks well set to under-perform (essentially mean-revert) over the coming months

5. GOLD: Losing its shine?..

-Gold, along with many other out-performers such as JPY and AUD, seems to be on the turn, at least for a major correction – particularly in the “cross markets”

-Gold in EUR-terms is probably the “stand out” chart. It has recently broken below its 55-wma after anextreme run of 213 consecutive weekly closes above and could well correct another ~17%

-The other really interesting chart is Gold in INR-terms; potentially looks set to drop ~25% from current levels if a topping structure can complete (USDINR may also have formed a major top)

Edited December 22, 2012 by Paulo1

[Paulo1]

Above analysis is a Xmas present for traders on this site.

I don't post much anymore due to trading/work commitments.

[damo]

Thanks Paulo, good analysis, clear and confident.

[Chivas]

Good stuff as always Paulo1....

Have a good Christmas yourself............Am still pulling in the Bucks thanks to a lot of stuff learned from yourself. Always appreciated,,,,,,,

Chivas.........

[Paulo1]

Good stuff as always Paulo1....

Have a good Christmas yourself............Am still pulling in the Bucks thanks to a lot of stuff learned from yourself. Always appreciated,,,,,,,

Chivas.........

Hello Chivas,

Great to hear you are keeping it consistant. Thanks for your kind comment. As well to you Damo.

Since posting the analysis USDJPY has moved almost 200 pips, EURJPY 316 pips EURAUD 170, AUDCAD 100, prsently 30 at market. Nikkei had a low of 9913 currently trading at 10348. Gold had a friday bullish close and has consolidation 1666.05 /1651.70.

Also entered sell on GBPUSD at 1.6293 plus 220 ish and sold EURUSD at 1.3288 plus 94.

Current total pips profit is 1030 since posted.

[tdm]

Seasons greetings to you all!

Chivas, you mentioned before trade 2 win as a good resource. I'm looking to explore trading indices and wondered if there were any particular threads you'd reccomend. I'm happy with intraday as well as overnight trades and currently looking at opening range breakout type trades.

cheers.

[Chivas]

Seasons greetings to you all!

Chivas, you mentioned before trade 2 win as a good resource. I'm looking to explore trading indices and wondered if there were any particular threads you'd reccomend. I'm happy with intraday as well as overnight trades and currently looking at opening range breakout type trades.

cheers.

I particularly follow and actively post on the Biggest ongoing thread on the Forum "Anyone Scalping the FTSE Futures" which is currently closing on 20,000 Posts...........

Good stuff indeed but the whole forum is decent..................

I wont say my name on it but you'll almost certainly catch me by my Strapline..............!!

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indices/120172-anyone-scalping-ftse-futures-2388.html

Edited December 30, 2012 by Chivas

[tdm]

Seasons greetings to you all!

Chivas, you mentioned before trade 2 win as a good resource. I'm looking to explore trading indices and wondered if there were any particular threads you'd reccomend. I'm happy with intraday as well as overnight trades and currently looking at opening range breakout type trades.

cheers.

I particularly follow and actively post on the Biggest ongoing thread on the Forum "Anyone Scalping the FTSE Futures" which is currently closing on 20,000 Posts...........

Good stuff indeed but the whole forum is decent..................

I wont say my name on it but you'll almost certainly catch me by my Strapline..............!!

http://www.trade2win...tures-2388.html

Thanks Chivas.

[Paulo1]

From the desk of JIM ROGERS.

1. Do your own work. Don’t be afraid of being a loner.

“

I learned early in my career that if you read the annual reports, you’ve done more than 90% of the people on Wall Street. If you read the notes to the annual report, you’ve done more than 95% of the people on Wall Street, and if you actually sit down and do a spread sheet, you’ve done more than 98% of the people on Wall Street.”

2. Good investors need a historical perspective­.

3. Think conceptually about the world.

4. Don’t buy stocks at high multiples.

“I don’t buy them because, by the time they reach a high multiple, it’s probably about time for it to come to an end. Wall Street and politicians are the last to catch on to any­thing.”

5. Be selective in your investing and look for one good idea.

“The most important trick for getting rich on Wall Street is not to lose money. There are many guys who do well for two years and then get creamed. Wait until you have a winner and are sure. In the meantime, keep your money in treasury bills. Professional money managers feel that they have to do something all the time and are the worst at following this advice.”

“Even if you only have one play every ten years, you’re going to do a lot better than most people.”

6. Every investment should be considered a commodity that will be affected by supply and demand changes; it’s just a question of when.

“Everything has its own supply and demand cycle, which may be a twenty-, thirty-, or fifty-year cycle, and every­thing is basically a commodity in the end.”

7. Every investor should lose some money, because it teaches you about yourself.

Edited January 2, 2013 by Paulo1