womble Posted November 29, 2008 Share Posted November 29, 2008 I was thinking, they say there's no such thing as bad news/advertising...... Obviously in the short term for Thailand the effect on tourism will be devistating, however I had a thought (probobally a really stupid one) but maybe worth discussing, for a moment anyway. Many people will be changing their holiday plans from Thailand to vietnam, malaysia, bali etc. But could all the news help bring attention to the country and attract people once thinsg settle down. Also all the people who switch will more than likely make Thailand their next holiday once things calm down and it seems safe again. Unfortunatley I think short term the damage will be devistating and it will also effect into the mid term as people can see security issues. I guess i'm just looking for some kind of hope as my business is touist related...... So is it possible that next high season 2009/2010 could be a bumper one if things are resolved quickly as those that changed plans some back once it's safe and new tourists come who didn't think of coming before simply because the country and it's huge tourism industry has been brought to their attention even though initially for the worng reason. One other thing I was thinking, us were becoming neglected and treated badly, they thought they'd always be a new plane load of us to arrive and many Thai's became jaded and forgot how important we are to their country and the income we bring them (not just tourism but in the export we buy, some of which cannot be exported at present as they go by plane not ship). If they blockade the ports aswell, then they will really see how important the outisde world is...... So perhaps if this high season really is dreadful, they will realise they need to treatus better and offer us more to get us to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauKarl Posted November 29, 2008 Share Posted November 29, 2008 The baht going down and easier visaregulations and tourism would be blooming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
12DrinkMore Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 I think that the next high season will be even worse because 1. There is a loss of confidence in the ability of the Thais to keep their basic infrastructure running 2. A lot of the tourists, especially Scandinavian, book up package holidays a year in advance, soon after they return from their holiday this year. They will not be booking now. 3. The package holiday companies will be taking a big hit and will be looking hard for alternatives. 4. Thailand has an increasing amount of competition and tourists will prefer to book to a more stable country. Most people have maybe four weeks holiday each year. Who is going to risk 50% of that coming to Thailand? 5. 2009 is going to be a year of recession and there will not be so much money floating around. 6. The Baht is very strong against most currencies except the USD. If the Thais finally sort themselves out, then possibly 2010 could be positive. But this is a massive opportunity for other countries to capitalise on the Thais' political problems and maybe tourists (and businesses) will permanently move away? Mai pen arai, as they say............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davejonesbkk Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 They'll be back, they always come back. Also Thailand doesnt really have any competition in SE Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuestHouse Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 51. 2009 is going to be a year of recession and there will not be so much money floating around. And don't rule out that running into 2010 and beyond as the bill for 2008/2009 needs paying sometime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HorseDoctor Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 They'll be back, they always come back. Also Thailand doesnt really have any competition in SE Asia. Yes, as long as Thai women are willing to act as commodity, sex tourists/pats will swim through sewage to get here ( and stay) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jkinbkk Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 With the expected major slump in tourists visiting Thailand next year I foresee the years after that to be even worse! With low attendance expected at the major tourist resorts, the local traders will be positioning themselves to tackle next years trickle of tourists with serious aggression to extort, cajole and ripping off every penny from those poor souls. Thus amplifying the negative press of Thailand further. This in turn will encourage even more tourists to look elsewhere for their holiday destination in the coming years. (this could be compounded by the political situation if not settled) Ideally the local tourism associations should ensure those tourists that visit Thailand in 2009 get an even 'fairer deal' than usual from the resort retailers (and I don't mean some Midnight Sales at Central) But alas, I can't for one moment see how to consolidate the resort trader into 'offering a fair service' as part of a long-term recovery objective. The positive spin however is that those residing in Thailand will be spoilt for choice with fantastic offers for hotels and resorts throughout 2009/2010 I have no doubt that the TAT is feverishly cobbling together some 'Travel Fair' as we speak. Enjoy the forthcoming bargains campers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovenman Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 The positive spin however is that those residing in Thailand will be spoilt for choice with fantastic offers for hotels and resorts throughout 2009/2010I have no doubt that the TAT is feverishly cobbling together some 'Travel Fair' as we speak. Enjoy the forthcoming bargains campers! Great in theory, but true bargains and deals are generally not how things work here. It's usually some half-assed promotion like 50% off the absurd rack rate on rooms, when a 60% discount was always available thru agencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 They'll be back, they always come back. Also Thailand doesnt really have any competition in SE Asia. Yes, as long as Thai women are willing to act as commodity, sex tourists/pats will swim through sewage to get here ( and stay) Ha Ha! But just as the ability to swim relies on the basic ability to swim, so the ability to be a tourist relies on the ability to finance; there's not much money about and the bt is overvalued. I also think the Thais have gone too far this time. I don't know why people collectively decide on something, but they do, and I think we'll see a collective decision to avoid Thailand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
h90 Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 I was thinking, they say there's no such thing as bad news/advertising......Obviously in the short term for Thailand the effect on tourism will be devistating, however I had a thought (probobally a really stupid one) but maybe worth discussing, for a moment anyway. Many people will be changing their holiday plans from Thailand to vietnam, malaysia, bali etc. But could all the news help bring attention to the country and attract people once thinsg settle down. Also all the people who switch will more than likely make Thailand their next holiday once things calm down and it seems safe again. Unfortunatley I think short term the damage will be devistating and it will also effect into the mid term as people can see security issues. I guess i'm just looking for some kind of hope as my business is touist related...... So is it possible that next high season 2009/2010 could be a bumper one if things are resolved quickly as those that changed plans some back once it's safe and new tourists come who didn't think of coming before simply because the country and it's huge tourism industry has been brought to their attention even though initially for the worng reason. One other thing I was thinking, us were becoming neglected and treated badly, they thought they'd always be a new plane load of us to arrive and many Thai's became jaded and forgot how important we are to their country and the income we bring them (not just tourism but in the export we buy, some of which cannot be exported at present as they go by plane not ship). If they blockade the ports aswell, then they will really see how important the outisde world is...... So perhaps if this high season really is dreadful, they will realise they need to treatus better and offer us more to get us to come back. I know from some tourist who don't come because of environmental problems (waste water direct into the sea) for scuba diver Philippines and Egypt is much better. Visa regulations are stupid. The Baht is high, if you walk at tourist areas there are only Birmanese, Pakistani, Bangladeshi and the worst Thais you won't see anywhere else in Thailand. Thailand must fix that, another 20 Tiffany shows won't help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 Ha Ha! or even the ability to swim through sewerage Ha Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
APMann Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 I think that the next high season will be even worse because1. There is a loss of confidence in the ability of the Thais to keep their basic infrastructure running 2. A lot of the tourists, especially Scandinavian, book up package holidays a year in advance, soon after they return from their holiday this year. They will not be booking now. 3. The package holiday companies will be taking a big hit and will be looking hard for alternatives. 4. Thailand has an increasing amount of competition and tourists will prefer to book to a more stable country. Most people have maybe four weeks holiday each year. Who is going to risk 50% of that coming to Thailand? 5. 2009 is going to be a year of recession and there will not be so much money floating around. 6. The Baht is very strong against most currencies except the USD. If the Thais finally sort themselves out, then possibly 2010 could be positive. But this is a massive opportunity for other countries to capitalise on the Thais' political problems and maybe tourists (and businesses) will permanently move away? Mai pen arai, as they say............ Good post. I agree 2010, if they're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetjock Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 I just read that Thailand is now listed as #7 on the US State Dept's list of 20 most dangerous travel destinations. Although I personally think that ranking is a exageration at the present time, I do think many Americans will not take this lightly so in addition to the economic problems in the US, I think Thailand will take a substantial hit downward in American tourist next year. I suppose that will put a smile on the faces of some of our anti US members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lannarebirth Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 I don't think you'll be seeing tourist numbers rise anytime soon, anywhere. What you might see is a change in farang percentage allocations of condominium complexes and the 30 year lease extended to 50 years or more. Depends on how weak the economy gets I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasabi Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 (edited) I am very close to telling my dear old Mum to cancel her trip to visit me at the end of December. I don't know if the situation merits #7 on the most dangerous list but it does have the feel of potentially blowing up in a big way any second. I'm going to wait 2 more weeks then decide. Edited November 30, 2008 by wasabi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ingo Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 me personally was thinking off going to Thailand in mar/feb next year,but i doubt ill be going now. theres gonna be so many desperate touts/beach chair operators +the jetski renting operators are all gonna see the downturn in tourism and feel the need to bleed the little tourism they do see coming in for more $$$. to make up for the loss of income. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryM Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 They'll be back, they always come back. Also Thailand doesnt really have any competition in SE Asia. Yes, as long as Thai women are willing to act as commodity, sex tourists/pats will swim through sewage to get here ( and stay) Don't forget the boys and katoeys too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thailand_tom Posted November 30, 2008 Share Posted November 30, 2008 i just read somewhere that 2009 , 6-7 million tourists will come to thailand, from like 14 million, and if people find other places to go, like costa rica, vietnam, etc. and enjoy there with no problems, get more for their money, they may never go back to thailand, too many other places in the world, also read where loss of 1 million jobs just from the, loss of tourists in thailand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozinthailand Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 I was thinking, they say there's no such thing as bad news/advertising......Obviously in the short term for Thailand the effect on tourism will be devistating, however I had a thought (probobally a really stupid one) but maybe worth discussing, for a moment anyway. Many people will be changing their holiday plans from Thailand to vietnam, malaysia, bali etc. But could all the news help bring attention to the country and attract people once thinsg settle down. Also all the people who switch will more than likely make Thailand their next holiday once things calm down and it seems safe again. Unfortunatley I think short term the damage will be devistating and it will also effect into the mid term as people can see security issues. I guess i'm just looking for some kind of hope as my business is touist related...... So is it possible that next high season 2009/2010 could be a bumper one if things are resolved quickly as those that changed plans some back once it's safe and new tourists come who didn't think of coming before simply because the country and it's huge tourism industry has been brought to their attention even though initially for the worng reason. One other thing I was thinking, us were becoming neglected and treated badly, they thought they'd always be a new plane load of us to arrive and many Thai's became jaded and forgot how important we are to their country and the income we bring them (not just tourism but in the export we buy, some of which cannot be exported at present as they go by plane not ship). If they blockade the ports aswell, then they will really see how important the outisde world is...... So perhaps if this high season really is dreadful, they will realise they need to treatus better and offer us more to get us to come back. I DOUBT THe 2010 sseason will be a bumper.. when there is safety involved, people have long memories, liks bali, it has taken 7 years to recover....... NOw thailand appears on most countries travel advisories as an unsafe place to travel to, China has cancelled ALL package tours... this will be a difficult 2-3 years for thailand, especially with the Thai Govt and the BoT propping up the Baht, they should revisit their fiscal policy it will kill this country, nows its 35% more expensive to come here, together with the safety concerns, this is now not becoming a desirable desitnation for Toursits !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simon43 Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 It's important to remember that whatever reductions in hotel rates, or increasing of condo leases to 50 years or their % per bulidng etc are implemented to encourage the farang dollar or pound of euro or whatever - all these changes will be done 'under duress'. The Thais will not do this willingly because they love tourists. They will do it only because the financial and political situation forces them to do it. As soon as things start returning to normal, we will see a return to the 'normal' standard of service that the Thais dish out to tourists and expats = cr*p! Sorry to say but Thais never learn from their past mistakes. So enjoy any discounts whilst you can. Simon PS - My (ex's) hotel is fully booked until Jan 4th, so no discounts there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryM Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 They'll be back, they always come back. Also Thailand doesnt really have any competition in SE Asia. Yes, as long as Thai women are willing to act as commodity, sex tourists/pats will swim through sewage to get here ( and stay) Not the full picture. There's plenty of bar boys too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geriatrickid Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 Once the Christmas New Year's rush is over, alot of people are in for a shock. The tourists won't be coming. China's economy is contracting. The Russians that saved Pattaya are seeing their oil wealth evaporate. India's economy is in trouble. And on and on it goes. The recent collapse of the USD 50 billion Ponzi scheme in New York will make some wealthy people poor in the USA and EU, and that's just the tip of the iceberg. Once the EU banks and Arab investors start seeing their asset values shrivel, they won't have the dividends to spead around anymore. The typical foreign Thai tourist will be more concerned with keeping a roof over his head and food on the table than a junket to the land of airport seizures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyree D. Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/style_images...-align-left.pngThey'll be back, they always come back. Also Thailand doesnt really have any competition in SE Asia. um, that was only true 10+ years ago when Vietnam was still closed and people didn't know Laos and a place called Angkor Wat existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dumball Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 They'll be back, they always come back. Also Thailand doesnt really have any competition in SE Asia. I can tell , you actually believe what you have written , do you not ? Many have already left and are more than content with their new destination , just read what is written with an open mind , you probably will not change your way of thinking with a broader outlook on life , but then , once a wanabee , always a wanabee , cannot or does not wish to see the forest for the trees . Many destinations have things to please tourists in the manner Thailand did several years ago , the ones that left must have some idea of that which they desire and things that they do not . Complacency is not neccessarily a replacement for desire , it is more a dulling of the adventurous brain and a slow sinking into a phase of personal denial . So be it written , so be it said . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MeetJohnDoe Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 Once the Christmas New Year's rush is over, alot of people are in for a shock...tourists won't be coming...China's economy is contracting...Russians oil wealth evaporate...India's economy is in trouble...The typical foreign Thai tourist will be more concerned with keeping a roof over his head and food on the table than a junket to the land of airport seizures. Completely agree with your analysis...all the Swedes and Ruskies in-country now booked their trips 9-12 months ago under completely different economic conditions. I am sure that with the current WW economic recession, collapse of commodity economies (Russia, Turban Heads, Aussies) many of them won't be back for awhile, and LOS political turmoil, bookings for next summer and high-season will not get made. This bad "high season" will likely look good compared to next year's blood bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mommysboy Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 Well it's very unlikely, and it would need a big devaluation in the bt, and significantly cheaper prices over here. There is scenario that says this could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nuwatmat Posted December 14, 2008 Share Posted December 14, 2008 Well it's very unlikely, and it would need a big devaluation in the bt, and significantly cheaper prices over here. There is scenario that says this could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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