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:o ...It's always nice and providing a warm feeling to find comforting news for one's own wishful thinking and bets for the future.... :D

LaoPo

You do not have any Gold LaoPo?

Not worth mentioning.

I'm still cash next to fully rented out real estate, making a very comfortable yield. I'm becoming more and more ''old fashioned'' and very very careful.

LaoPo

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Soon to be knocking on 885's door Then new vistas :o:D

Flying,

the "885" are irrelevant for people who do not think in USD but e.g. in €UR or JP¥ terms.

example:

USD/€UR mid nov 1.24 / dec 18th 1.44 = -16%

Gold mid nov USD 715 / dec 18th 867 = +21%

profit = 5% which admittedly is not a bad yield for that period. but the yield is only fictive as the premiums for small gold denominations are higher than the 5% yield.

result: NO yield but a loss, plus i'd call it gambling and not investing.

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Soon to be knocking on 885's door Then new vistas :D:D

Flying,

the "885" are irrelevant for people who do not think in USD but e.g. in €UR or JP¥ terms.

example:

USD/€UR mid nov 1.24 / dec 18th 1.44 = -16%

Gold mid nov USD 715 / dec 18th 867 = +21%

profit = 5% which admittedly is not a bad yield for that period. but the yield is only fictive as the premiums for small gold denominations are higher than the 5% yield.

result: NO yield but a loss, plus i'd call it gambling and not investing.

If you are trying to confuse me you are succeeding :D

Kidding .......but honestly I think in USD so it is relevant for me.

Profits are not bad for time period so far yes but as I have said before

I am not looking at this as an investment.

This as I said is 20% of my liquid assets & is just a safe haven IMHO

As for my other 80% in cash & bonds I am not comfortable with it but lack a better idea at this time.

Perhaps Yen :o

Gambling for me would be to leave 100% of my liquid assets in the USD at this time. :D

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Yep, and I will wager that back in the 1630's the dutch were planting all kind of new acreage in tulips :o

But...................... :D

I bet Tulips do not have a track record like this....................

Year after year -- This may shock you. What item has closed higher every year since 2000?

Here are the gold closings for the following years --

2000 -- $273.60

2001 -- $279.00

2002 -- $348.20

2003 -- $416.10

2004 -- $438.40

2005 -- $518.90

2006 -- $638.00

2007 -- $838.00

2008 -- ?

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Soon to be knocking on 885's door Then new vistas :D:D

Flying,

the "885" are irrelevant for people who do not think in USD but e.g. in €UR or JP¥ terms.

example:

USD/€UR mid nov 1.24 / dec 18th 1.44 = -16%

Gold mid nov USD 715 / dec 18th 867 = +21%

profit = 5% which admittedly is not a bad yield for that period. but the yield is only fictive as the premiums for small gold denominations are higher than the 5% yield.

result: NO yield but a loss, plus i'd call it gambling and not investing.

If you are trying to confuse me you are succeeding :D

Kidding .......but honestly I think in USD so it is relevant for me.

Profits are not bad for time period so far yes but as I have said before

I am not looking at this as an investment.

This as I said is 20% of my liquid assets & is just a safe haven IMHO

As for my other 80% in cash & bonds I am not comfortable with it but lack a better idea at this time.

Perhaps Yen :o

Gambling for me would be to leave 100% of my liquid assets in the USD at this time. :wai:

Flying, Its good to hear that you restrict yourself to 20% in PM, also since I know that you are mostly in silver I think you will do well in the longer run with that bet. This recent pop in gold was strictly a Dollar weakening phenomena, and I think that it was overdone so you will likely see a retracement (perhaps not until early January after the santa claus rally is completley played out). There will be more hedge fund redemtions in January so the market may test the old lows and the ECB has multiple rate cuts yet to come and the Dollar will bounce back after each of those cuts. After seeing the Chinese import numbers last week and hearing the FED's language and drastic (and unamimous) action the other day, I am now in the camp that thinks the worlds largest economies will be fighting deflation for the entirety of 2009 and likely well into 2010. When the full scope of this deflationary pressure is felt worldwide I think you may be able to load up with a little more silver in the $7's and possibly even the $6's. Once again good luck my friend, and stay safe over the Holidays :D

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Flying, Its good to hear that you restrict yourself to 20% in PM, also since I know that you are mostly in silver I think you will do well in the longer run with that bet. This recent pop in gold was strictly a Dollar weakening phenomena, and I think that it was overdone so you will likely see a retracement (perhaps not until early January after the santa claus rally is completley played out). There will be more hedge fund redemtions in January so the market may test the old lows and the ECB has multiple rate cuts yet to come and the Dollar will bounce back after each of those cuts. After seeing the Chinese import numbers last week and hearing the FED's language and drastic (and unamimous) action the other day, I am now in the camp that thinks the worlds largest economies will be fighting deflation for the entirety of 2009 and likely well into 2010. When the full scope of this deflationary pressure is felt worldwide I think you may be able to load up with a little more silver in the $7's and possibly even the $6's. Once again good luck my friend, and stay safe over the Holidays :o

Yes Vic like I said I lack a better idea :D:D

You know I am a building contractor & that is what I know & usually would be

invested there but ...................

As you probably know inventory is so high everywhere it is not a great spec time so I wait.

As to silver yes I am weighted literally heavier there :D

This is interesting too.............

On Tuesday there was major activity with the COMEX silver warehouse statistics. The main activity though was at the HSBC warehouse where 9,436,026 ounces of silver was withdrawn from the registered category. Of this amount, 132,814 ounces were withdrawn from the exchange and 9,303,212 ounces were switched to the eligible category. This is by far the largest change in categorization since September 2006. For the day total COMEX registered silver holdings dropped 9,551,447 ounces from 77,750,977 to 68,199,530. COMEX now has 12.3% fewer silver bullets to shoot at the market. Total warehouse stocks are now down to 126,972,398 ounces

Good Luck to you too Vic & Happy Holidays!

Wish I was in Vegas :D:wai: I use to frequent the place too often.

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Flying, Its good to hear that you restrict yourself to 20% in PM, also since I know that you are mostly in silver I think you will do well in the longer run with that bet. This recent pop in gold was strictly a Dollar weakening phenomena, and I think that it was overdone so you will likely see a retracement (perhaps not until early January after the santa claus rally is completley played out). There will be more hedge fund redemtions in January so the market may test the old lows and the ECB has multiple rate cuts yet to come and the Dollar will bounce back after each of those cuts. After seeing the Chinese import numbers last week and hearing the FED's language and drastic (and unamimous) action the other day, I am now in the camp that thinks the worlds largest economies will be fighting deflation for the entirety of 2009 and likely well into 2010. When the full scope of this deflationary pressure is felt worldwide I think you may be able to load up with a little more silver in the $7's and possibly even the $6's. Once again good luck my friend, and stay safe over the Holidays :o

Yes Vic like I said I lack a better idea :D:D

You know I am a building contractor & that is what I know & usually would be

invested there but ...................

As you probably know inventory is so high everywhere it is not a great spec time so I wait.

As to silver yes I am weighted literally heavier there :D

This is interesting too.............

On Tuesday there was major activity with the COMEX silver warehouse statistics. The main activity though was at the HSBC warehouse where 9,436,026 ounces of silver was withdrawn from the registered category. Of this amount, 132,814 ounces were withdrawn from the exchange and 9,303,212 ounces were switched to the eligible category. This is by far the largest change in categorization since September 2006. For the day total COMEX registered silver holdings dropped 9,551,447 ounces from 77,750,977 to 68,199,530. COMEX now has 12.3% fewer silver bullets to shoot at the market. Total warehouse stocks are now down to 126,972,398 ounces

Good Luck to you too Vic & Happy Holidays!

Wish I was in Vegas :D:wai: I use to frequent the place too often.

Flying, I would stay away from all that COMEX nonsense if I were you. Silver is a good bet though, especially if it does get down into the $7's or lower, heck I may buy some myself if it gets down there! I hang my hat in Sedona these days, but will be visiting the grandkids in Vegas next week. I'll place a bet for you on the roulette wheel-a silver dollar on 17 :P

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Flying, I would stay away from all that COMEX nonsense if I were you. Silver is a good bet though, especially if it does get down into the $7's or lower, heck I may buy some myself if it gets down there! I hang my hat in Sedona these days, but will be visiting the grandkids in Vegas next week. I'll place a bet for you on the roulette wheel-a silver dollar on 17 :o

No worries Im not into the Comex manipulation stuff.

Just thought the movement was interesting.

Ok good Luck in Vegas & put me on 9

Merry Xmas!

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In Canada at the momo, and just placed an order for some silver maples today, but was shocked to find that they have set a daily limit of 50oz per person, per day. So, I will call tomorrow and place another order. Cant think of the reason they would limit orders, as it seems like they are in turn limiting profits. Paying quite a premium to get the maples, but they are for the long long term, and just so damm purdy, so I dont really mind. :o

Wow that is odd? But nice you can get some & I bet Maples are nice.

I have Maples in Gold but not Silver.

Silver I have Eagles...Minute men & Generic rounds.

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another reason for buying gold is the fundamental market mechanism. Supply and Demand.

And supply is running low quickly as can be seen in this table:

post-7665-1229976031_thumb.png

The jump at the end of november was caused by expiring contracts. That will happen again and the end of this month. Probably there still is enough to honor all the contracts for december, but at this rate i think februari/march will see a shortage.

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Gold in USD is irrelevant IMO. I bought my stash in sterling in October 2007 at £370 per oz. Price in sterling now is £570 per ounce. I think gold's done its job pretty nicely.

What I find amusing is how the USD can hold up against gold as well as the Yen when the fundamentals underpinning the US and Japan are as disconnected as it is possible for them to be. The deleveraging process is coming to an end. The US Treasury bubble is going to burst spectacularly. China is NOT going to save the US before it saves itself so, given a choice between millions of incensed Chinese descending on Tiananmen and using some of those immense foreign currency reserves to create infrastructure-based employment, I reckon they'll go with the latter.

Let's see who's buying long-dated T-Bonds this time next year.

Deflation is being used by the central banks to justify the creation of money out of thin air. I'm back in Blighty at the mo and there ain't no deflation apparent in the cost of food. Prices of consumer tat is only coming down to tempt strapped shoppers into the shops - retailers are merely slashing their margin. Rest assured they didn't pay LESS for those plasma TVs especially with the weakened pound.

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another reason for buying gold is the fundamental market mechanism. Supply and Demand.

And supply is running low quickly as can be seen in this table:

post-7665-1229976031_thumb.png

The jump at the end of november was caused by expiring contracts. That will happen again and the end of this month. Probably there still is enough to honor all the contracts for december, but at this rate i think februari/march will see a shortage.

This is what I dont understand.....

If these charts are correct the comex is in fact losing inventory at an alarming rate. 15% removed in two thirds of a month. Less than 55% remaining. At this rate yes 2-3 months & they have a problem don't they? Is the comex obliged to have any certain amount? Is that amount equal to the outstanding contracts?

Or are they allowed to leverage? Anyone here know the actual regulations governing them?

Just curious

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Flying, Gold might have a few nice runs while the Chinese are buying, but the end game for gold is rather ugly! Most gold bugs I know are loaded to their antennas with the stuff and should Russia start selling and china curtail their buying, then gold will drop as fast as oil did.

I cannot say with certainty what the end game is to anything that has not occurred yet.

*IF* Russia starts selling there would be a reason for it & *IF* China & everyone else stops buying there would be a reason.

Till then I still see PM's as a pretty safe haven these days. I seem to be in worldwide company in that respect. Also I am not praying for hyperinflation or any other mad max type scenarios but.....I do feel much better not having all my liquid assets in USD or banks for that matter. Nor do I want to be in the stock markets at this time on the pass or the no-pass side. I am comfy here :wai:

Let everyone be comfy where they are too :D

IF Russia starts selling there would be a reason! Yes there would be a reason, are you familiar with what is happening with the Russian rubble or with the Russian stock market? MELTDOWN :D As far as China goes, the import figures posted last week show that China could be in for a bout of deflation themselves and unemployment will rise much faster and higher than anyone though before :D It is not out of the question that China could have an inward implosion and colapse under its own weight (so to speak). These are real world facts flying, not goldbug fairy tales of COMEX default or Dollar demise or hyperinflation ect. ect . ect. :o As always good luck in your investments, and have a good Holiday season!

Merry Christmas Vic

I saw this today & thought of you :D

http://www.russiatoday.com/business/news/35298

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Flying, Its good to hear that you restrict yourself to 20% in PM, also since I know that you are mostly in silver I think you will do well in the longer run with that bet. This recent pop in gold was strictly a Dollar weakening phenomena, and I think that it was overdone so you will likely see a retracement (perhaps not until early January after the santa claus rally is completley played out). There will be more hedge fund redemtions in January so the market may test the old lows and the ECB has multiple rate cuts yet to come and the Dollar will bounce back after each of those cuts. After seeing the Chinese import numbers last week and hearing the FED's language and drastic (and unamimous) action the other day, I am now in the camp that thinks the worlds largest economies will be fighting deflation for the entirety of 2009 and likely well into 2010. When the full scope of this deflationary pressure is felt worldwide I think you may be able to load up with a little more silver in the $7's and possibly even the $6's. Once again good luck my friend, and stay safe over the Holidays :o

Yes Vic like I said I lack a better idea :D:D

You know I am a building contractor & that is what I know & usually would be

invested there but ...................

As you probably know inventory is so high everywhere it is not a great spec time so I wait.

As to silver yes I am weighted literally heavier there :D

This is interesting too.............

On Tuesday there was major activity with the COMEX silver warehouse statistics. The main activity though was at the HSBC warehouse where 9,436,026 ounces of silver was withdrawn from the registered category. Of this amount, 132,814 ounces were withdrawn from the exchange and 9,303,212 ounces were switched to the eligible category. This is by far the largest change in categorization since September 2006. For the day total COMEX registered silver holdings dropped 9,551,447 ounces from 77,750,977 to 68,199,530. COMEX now has 12.3% fewer silver bullets to shoot at the market. Total warehouse stocks are now down to 126,972,398 ounces

Good Luck to you too Vic & Happy Holidays!

Wish I was in Vegas :D:wai: I use to frequent the place too often.

Flying, I would stay away from all that COMEX nonsense if I were you. Silver is a good bet though, especially if it does get down into the $7's or lower, heck I may buy some myself if it gets down there! I hang my hat in Sedona these days, but will be visiting the grandkids in Vegas next week. I'll place a bet for you on the roulette wheel-a silver dollar on 17 :P

Hey Vic,

I stayed in Sedona in 1986. You don't happen to live in a house that's like a big garage and have/had Model T Ford's?

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http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/articl...UO6u_AD95977MG1

Woes on Wall Street coincide with gold coin rush

By SANDY SHORE – 1 day ago

DENVER (AP) — Investors who have forsaken shaky financial markets for the safety of gold must feel a little bit like prospectors.

As the worst recession in at least a generation spreads, so too does the clamor for gold bars and coins, assets less likely to go up on smoke like so many derivatives and asset-backed securities.

"I've never seen a case where demand was so high and supply was so short," said Chicago coin dealer Harlan Berk, who has been in the business 44 years.

Spikes in demand for gold coins this year appear to run parallel with the mounting woes on Wall Street.

In August, as the Federal Reserve pumped $62 billion into the U.S. banking system and rejected requests for mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to take on more debt, sales of the popular American Eagle coin were suspended for a week.

The U.S. Mint was unable to get enough gold blanks from suppliers to match demand, Mint spokesman Michael White said.

In late September, when a massive bailout for the nation's biggest banks failed, sales of the American Buffalo coin were suspended until Nov. 3 because of shortages.

Yet even before the full extent of the financial crisis was known, investors had begun to load up on gold and other assets that could be held in the hand.

By early spring, investors were snapping up precious metals such as gold, silver and platinum, said Beth Deisher, editor of Coin World trade magazine.

Gold for April delivery shot up to a record of $1,033.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange March 17. According to a report by the National Bureau of Economic Research released this month, that was just three months into the U.S. recession.

That correlation continued throughout the year as Wall Street institutions fell.

"People sensed there was something going on that they didn't quite understand," Deisher said.

In the third quarter, when the U.S. bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Fed gathered the chiefs of major banks on Wall Street to plot a rescue, and Lehman Brothers descended into bankruptcy protection, gold sales went into high gear, said Natalie Dempster, head of the World Gold Council's North American investment unit.

U.S. demand for gold coins and small bars jumped 600 percent and international demand rose 121 percent, according to the council.

"The fact that gold is nobody else's liability was really an extremely important trait for investors in Q3 that were growing increasingly mistrustful of financial institutions in general," Dempster said.

To get gold as stocks began to fall, investors were willing to pay.

"You saw people paying premiums to get coins and small bars," Dempster said. "The refiners, et cetera, just wouldn't have been set up to produce that amount of gold, the same way as any other product."

Compounding the shortage somewhat, Deisher said, was a decision years ago to offshore some of the tasks that go into making U.S. gold coins.

Under the law, gold used in U.S. coins must be mined domestically. However, the government contracts with private companies to fabricate blank coins for striking with images such as the American Eagle. One of those companies is Gold Corp., owned by the government of Western Australia and operator of the Perth Mint.

Demand for gold coins continued to grow as economic news from Wall Street and Washington grew more ominous.

In early October, the Dow Jones industrial average closed below 10,000 points for the first time since 2004. At the same time, coin dealers saw demand a hit a peak, and bullion coins were fetching huge premiums, said Larry Shepherd, executive director of the American Numismatic Association.

"That's created a shortage not only in the secondary market, where shops are competing with each other to find enough supply to meet the demand but it's also created a real shortage in the primary market where the Mint itself is having difficulty getting enough supply to meet demand," he said.

At his coin shop in downtown Chicago, Berk advises customers to plan ahead when arranging purchases, as much as two to three months.

It's frustrating, but "you learn to live with it," he said.

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Hey Flying,

Isn't Forex gold, the price you see quoted on the market, just paper gold? Anyone got any faith in authorities when it comes to any form of fiat currency?

Wish I'd listened to the wife when she kept saying 'oh, look, gold shop!'

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Hey Flying,

Isn't Forex gold, the price you see quoted on the market, just paper gold? Anyone got any faith in authorities when it comes to any form of fiat currency?

Wish I'd listened to the wife when she kept saying 'oh, look, gold shop!'

Hi MJP

Yes that is correct. The running joke is there are two markets that one & Ebay

Ebay is closer to true price for physical.

But actually in my experience Ebay is high by a bit.

For the most part physical gold coins 1 oz is 8% average above the spot price on the paper market.

Nicer dealers are holding to about $50/ounce regardless of what the market is doing.

This has been my experience.

There are some good dealers like Tulving & OG but they have 10 & 20 ounce minimums that are harder for smaller buyers that are trying to average in.

Other places like Ampex dont really have a minimum & their prices are close now.

These prices I mention are for 1 oz coins ...Prices go up a little more for fractuals smaller than 1 oz & go down a little for bars like Swiss Pamps

One thing to really watch is how many advertise a price but do not actually have the stock.....yet....so they say. :o

Merry Christmas!

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Hey Flying,

Isn't Forex gold, the price you see quoted on the market, just paper gold? Anyone got any faith in authorities when it comes to any form of fiat currency?

Wish I'd listened to the wife when she kept saying 'oh, look, gold shop!'

Hi MJP

Yes that is correct. The running joke is there are two markets that one & Ebay

Ebay is closer to true price for physical.

But actually in my experience Ebay is high by a bit.

For the most part physical gold coins 1 oz is 8% average above the spot price on the paper market.

Nicer dealers are holding to about $50/ounce regardless of what the market is doing.

This has been my experience.

There are some good dealers like Tulving & OG but they have 10 & 20 ounce minimums that are harder for smaller buyers that are trying to average in.

Other places like Ampex dont really have a minimum & their prices are close now.

These prices I mention are for 1 oz coins ...Prices go up a little more for fractuals smaller than 1 oz & go down a little for bars like Swiss Pamps

One thing to really watch is how many advertise a price but do not actually have the stock.....yet....so they say. :o

Merry Christmas!

I can't see how this thing is really going to play out other than for any remaining real money to buy gold.

If you listen to Peter Schiff he, rightly in my opinion, reckons the current deflation is the result of one big fire sale liquidation. To be followed by reduced competition and a rush of bailout/chopper money resulting in serious inflation. I don't like to use the term hyperinflation as I believe this has been defined:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

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I can't see how this thing is really going to play out other than for any remaining real money to buy gold.

If you listen to Peter Schiff he, rightly in my opinion, reckons the current deflation is the result of one big fire sale liquidation. To be followed by reduced competition and a rush of bailout/chopper money resulting in serious inflation. I don't like to use the term hyperinflation as I believe this has been defined:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

Dont say that word ! Vic will be along shortly & call you a gold bug :D:D:D

Just kidding Vic & I joke about that a lot.

You will not get any arguments from me MJP.

I really like Peter Schiff. Did you ever see this older video?

9/18/07

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-9ydvy2ZSs

The announcers are laughing their butts off at him.

I would love to see these guys talk today.

But I have no idea which way this will pan out.

I mean I like to think positive but there is not much substance left.

We will see thats for sure eh? :o

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I can't see how this thing is really going to play out other than for any remaining real money to buy gold.

If you listen to Peter Schiff he, rightly in my opinion, reckons the current deflation is the result of one big fire sale liquidation. To be followed by reduced competition and a rush of bailout/chopper money resulting in serious inflation. I don't like to use the term hyperinflation as I believe this has been defined:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation

Dont say that word ! Vic will be along shortly & call you a gold bug :D:D:D

Just kidding Vic & I joke about that a lot.

You will not get any arguments from me MJP.

I really like Peter Schiff. Did you ever see this older video?

9/18/07

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-9ydvy2ZSs

The announcers are laughing their butts off at him.

I would love to see these guys talk today.

But I have no idea which way this will pan out.

I mean I like to think positive but there is not much substance left.

We will see thats for sure eh? :o

Been a follower of Schiff for the last few years. He was saying the same stuff I was.

For me, it's tomato plants, olives and home brew wine. Healthy, stress free living and if necessary, to achieve this, I will have the wife locked away in a sanatorium.

No smiley's, I'm fvckin' serious.

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Been a follower of Schiff for the last few years. He was saying the same stuff I was.

For me, it's tomato plants, olives and home brew wine. Healthy, stress free living and if necessary, to achieve this, I will have the wife locked away in a sanatorium.

No smiley's, I'm fvckin' serious.

Sounds like you have a nice life planned! Congrats

We also grow a lot of our food.

I unfortunately live in a expensive State even though I carry no real debt I wonder at times.

How this will all pan out. I was not really ready to move to TL yet but we will see.

My wife would love to go back in some ways but loves it here too.

I am still a good 80% cash & small time certs & some real estate but Im moving towards more metals I think. The paper is just a bit flimsy these days & I really see nowhere for it to go but down.

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Been a follower of Schiff for the last few years. He was saying the same stuff I was.

For me, it's tomato plants, olives and home brew wine. Healthy, stress free living and if necessary, to achieve this, I will have the wife locked away in a sanatorium.

No smiley's, I'm fvckin' serious.

Sounds like you have a nice life planned! Congrats

We also grow a lot of our food.

I unfortunately live in a expensive State even though I carry no real debt I wonder at times.

How this will all pan out. I was not really ready to move to TL yet but we will see.

My wife would love to go back in some ways but loves it here too.

I am still a good 80% cash & small time certs & some real estate but Im moving towards more metals I think. The paper is just a bit flimsy these days & I really see nowhere for it to go but down.

I've a life of purgatory planned with 'her'.

I've recently been researching methods of suicide.

Oh, the internet is a wealth of information.

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I've a life of purgatory planned with 'her'.

I've recently been researching methods of suicide.

Oh, the internet is a wealth of information.

hahahah

Man is not complete till he is married..... Then he is finished

Good Luck to you

Happy New Year

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For me, it's tomato plants, olives and home brew wine.

tomato and olive wine ? thats going to be interesting :o

www.goldtraders.or.th has me thinking I should take an expedition to Yaowarat and convert all my excess THB except for the months expenses to baht bars.

stumonster why Yaowarat ??

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