Redshirts And Yellowshirts - When Will It End

[Esper]

While the current political turmoil in Thailand has captivated a global audience, I wonder how many are clear about the issues at stake.

During the days I was trapped in Bangkok while the airports were under siege, I managed to speak to members from both factions - the anti-government yellowshirts and the pro-Thaksin redshirts - and it was interesting to see the range and differences in opinion, even from those on the same side; and how rumours, half-truths and propaganda had become woven into the threads of the political ideologies that support each campaign.

We know that the redshirts support Thaksin because of the political reforms he introduced during his regime made signifricant changes to their lives: the 30baht medical scheme and other medical subsidies; making cheap, sometimes interest-free loans available to the farming and poorer communities in the north who were hitherto unable to raise funds through the banks because there were no 'regular income' records; improving the infrastructure in many areas, giving community grants etc etc. These are tangible to them and understandably they are fighting to keep these reforms that might disappear under a different administration.

The Yellowshirts are basically campaigning against the Thaksin regime because of excessive corruption even for a SEAsian dictator. They claim that Thaksin and his favoured cronies have sold Thailand out - e.g. the telecommumications sell-out to Singapore - and that they are in power only because they have 'bribed' the northerners to vote them into government. They effectively claim that the northerners are 'not mentally fit' to vote, and to this end, they are pushing for electoral reforms to do away with the one-man-one-vote system.

While there is much to be said for reforms that will do away with corruption, most on-lookers will concede that this will be virtually impossible in a country like Thailand where 'under-table money' has become so much part of the culture (Just this week I was in the Phuket Land Registry and in order to get access to records my lawyer had to provide 'coffee money'to the clerical officer). The next regime will almost certainly end up as corrupt as the one they replace; it really is a question of whose turn it is in the driving seat, and Thaksin's gang have clearly stayed too long.

The further you go from Bangkok, the issues get more distorted; so in Chaiyapum, the redshirt pro-Thaksin forestry workers there believe: that Thaksin's reforms reduced the number of powerful families from 1,000 to about 50 super-rich - hence much support (and funding) for the anti-Thaksin/government yellowshirts comes from these displaced and disaffected families; that the Queen is showing her support for the yellowshirts because she consulted an oracle that confirmed that the current king is the 9th and last king of this dynasty...

And in Phuket, largely anti-Thaksin, there are claims that the northerners are simply paid off with tax money raised from the south; whispers that Thaksin has been paying off the Crown Prince's mammoth debts which effectively puts him in his pocket, making him even more of a powerhouse threat should the Crown Prince take the throne... not to mention myriad other conspiracy theories, speculation of republicanism and assassination predictions...

This country has suffered political and economic upheaval before, and survived; and no doubt they will get through the current ordeal in time. But never have the rifts between communities and cracks in the country's political and social structures seemed so massive. The outside world wonders at the likelihood of Civil War; maybe not to that extent, for the Thais are actually quite peace-loving compared to other races; but here and now, on the eve of the next government formation and at a time when the much-respected King's health is fading, we are truly at the dawn of a new era, and no outcome should be taken for granted.

Edited December 14, 2008 by Esper

[londonthai]

it's a conflict within the ruling class between the "old money" landowners and feudalists and the "new money" venture capitalists, doing their money in high end industries. The first is afraid of any social change in thai society, the former try to open the country to the world economy, be part of the global processes, introduce social reforms to boost productivity of the workforce.

ordinary working class people are confused what's going on and are used as a cannon fodder by the political elites - on top of it there is bribery itself to finance street protests, occupations or outright buying off members of parliament and local government. The popular rumours are mostly true, not everything can be hidden from the public or not seen through - just there is a twist for them given by the old elites.

there is only very little of class conscious of the masses because of the poor education, state propaganda, censorship of information.

on the other side there is a threat of violence from the old elites, controlling the army, police, secret service and the other major government agencies, so the populalion do only vote by feet every 4 years (or so), but are not ready to be actively involved in politics.

unless the silent, grey majority of population start to speak up by their own voices, there would be reds and yellows running on the sideways, dictating all politics.

how and when this political turmoil will end up is impossible to predict.

Edited December 14, 2008 by londonthai

[Mosha]

21st Dec 2012 is my guess. (Oh and the Mayans)

[wasabi]

This crisis will end and a new one will emerge. I think Thailand is fatally flawed, though in some beautiful ways, and will always lag the rest of thew world by 3 world standard deviations.

[britmaveric]

The old elite (PAD) trying to hold on to power however its a futile attempt and the real power base is in the north/issan - once the elite realize this and accept their fate, Thailand can move forward.

[Esper]

The old elite (PAD) trying to hold on to power however its a futile attempt and the real power base is in the north/issan - once the elite realize this and accept their fate, Thailand can move forward.

I'm not sure the 'old elite' will 'realise this and accept their fate' for a long time... their man just got appointed PM today... how did the PAD and their supporters manage this when they are the minority? They vowed to continue hostilities if no 'satisfactory' successor was appointed; is this how they get their way? What message does that send out, for heaven's sake

[londonthai]

in capitalism there is a golden rule: "who has gold - rules". The protests and occupations were paid for and the power shifted to the sponsors of those protests.

probably only in england the old and new money settled for a concensus ofter the civil war, to share the political power, but that was in a country with a long, stable parliamentarian tradition

[basjke]

All this will end when it is much too late.These imbeciles don't see that they are putting their own country trough the drain.

[thailandjunkie]

I suggest new PM Abhisit takes the advice from his good buddy (well, recently anyway) Nevin. Devote resources to populist programmes in the Northeast...undermine Thaksin's support base by giving the poor some of what Thaksin is credited for. And why not...they should be brought further into society and helped out financially.

In addition, Abhisit can hopefully put on his Oxford economic hat and start introducing policies that can get Thailand back on an economic growth track. Start opening up Thailand to foreign investment in a logical and meaningful way....doesn't mean selling the country to foreigners...it means getting foreign money into the country on an equitable and investment-friendly basis. And therefore benefit from the additional investment and job opportunities for Thais accordingly.

www.thailandjunkie.blogspot.com