3 Million Tourists Disappear During December - March

[george]

3 million tourists disappear during December-March

BANGKOK: -- Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) expected the missing of 3 million tourists during December and March, as a result of the domestic political conflicts.

This would reduce the expected revenue by Bt109 billion, TCT said.

"We expect the tourists to divert to neighbouring countries particularly Bali and Malaysia," said TCT president Kongkrit Hiranyakit.

TCT also revised down the tourist arrivals next year to 12.8 million from 15 million, with tourism revenue of Bt460 billion.

Kongkrit said the figures are lower than in 2008 when tourist arrivals are expected to reach 14.1 million and revenue to Bt540 billion.

-- The Nation 2008-12-17

[h90]

3 million tourists disappear during December-March

BANGKOK: -- Tourism Council of Thailand (TCT) expected the missing of 3 million tourists during December and March, as a result of the domestic political conflicts.

This would reduce the expected revenue by Bt109 billion, TCT said.

"We expect the tourists to divert to neighbouring countries particularly Bali and Malaysia," said TCT president Kongkrit Hiranyakit.

TCT also revised down the tourist arrivals next year to 12.8 million from 15 million, with tourism revenue of Bt460 billion.

Kongkrit said the figures are lower than in 2008 when tourist arrivals are expected to reach 14.1 million and revenue to Bt540 billion.

-- The Nation 2008-12-17

They found already a solution:

From neighbor countries you only get 14 days visa instead of 30 days.

Causing double amount of visa runs and so a lot more tourists in the counting of the immigration.

[Ricardo]

They found already a solution:

From neighbor countries you only get 14 days visa instead of 30 days.

Causing double amount of visa runs and so a lot more tourists in the counting of the immigration.

Let us hope that things don't get so bad, that the government needs to massage the figures further, and introduce weekly visa-runs instead !

[TAWP]

3 million people disappear...wow, hope hey all find them in the end. Would be awful if something would happened to them.

Their relatives most be worried.

[tropo]

They found already a solution:

From neighbor countries you only get 14 days visa instead of 30 days.

Causing double amount of visa runs and so a lot more tourists in the counting of the immigration.

Just in case you weren't joking:

This new rule will not double the amount of visa runs but will seriously reduce the amount people doing of visa runs. Anyone still interested in staying will obtain a tourist visa instead.

[khundon]

2.999.999 missing, I was'nt going anyway.

[Warrior]

If this becomes true - it is serious.

[Merangue]

How many jobs is that reduction going to cost?

1000's?

10000's?

100000's?

More?

All hail the Airport Shutdowns, Government buildings takeovers and general unlawful demonstrations.

Way to go PAD.

[Merangue]

3 million people disappear...wow, hope hey all find them in the end. Would be awful if something would happened to them.

Their relatives most be worried.

Good to see someone can find the loss of jobs and livelyhood a joking matter.

[hardy1943]

If this becomes true - it is serious.

I love it. The ruling PAD shot themselves in the foot. Nice job you elite idiots

[Vato]

... so the fall of the world economy doesnt have anything to do with it ehh?

[Tod]

How many jobs is that reduction going to cost?

1000's?

10000's?

100000's?

More?

All hail the Airport Shutdowns, Government buildings takeovers and general unlawful demonstrations.

Way to go PAD.

How long is it going to take for all the professional PAD propagandists posters to start saying that the airport closure has nothing to do with the massive drop in tourists?

[Thai at Heart]

How many jobs is that reduction going to cost?

1000's?

10000's?

100000's?

More?

All hail the Airport Shutdowns, Government buildings takeovers and general unlawful demonstrations.

Way to go PAD.

It may be in the 100,000's.

In the last week I know of 10 relatives and friends of family who have returned from work in Pattaya area. All were employed in hotels either as reception or waitresses/waiter.

Edited December 17, 2008 by Thai at Heart

[Martin]

'Thai at Heart'said, in post #13:

"In the last week I know of 10 relatives and friends of family who have returned from work in Pattaya area. All were employed in hotels either as reception or waitresses/waiter. "

That is exactly what was predicted recently by a government official, and part of the the possibility that I wrote about in my MA thesis a couple of years ago----Western recession resulting in the contraction of employment in tourism and manufacture-for-export in Thailand.

It is to 'their' villages that people will look when employment in urban areas contracts. And, just as the arising of those employment opportunities caused rural-to-urban migration, so their contraction will cause urban-to-rural flow.

However, it is possible to be optimistic.

Over the past forty years, that rural-to-urban migration has done a lot of social harm to the villages (disrupted families, with kids being brougt up in the absence of their parents, and so on) and it has done social harm in urban areas, too (rising use of cheap brothels causing spread of AIDs, and so on).

It is possible that the reversal of that migration may bring about much reversal of that social harm.

Looking ahead over the next forty years, it is possible to constuct a scenario of the Bangkok poulation reducing at an average of 3% per annum, (though it will come in lurches (like the one that 'Thai at Heart' is reporting), rather than smoothly), and so reducing from the present 10 million to 5 million by 2030 and to 3 million before 2050.

I call it "A smaller and more beautiful Bangkok, with bigger and better Ban Nork".

The interesting thing to watch will be the second wave of urban-to-rural migration.

This first wave will be largely composed of lower-paid workers who have not been gone from their villages for long and who will fit back in relatively smoothly.

But the second wave will contain a lot of middle-class people, looking to construct middle-class lifestyles in the rural areas. I can't foresee them being willing to leave their savings, or their political clout, behind in Bangkok.

We will live in interesting times. (And, as that old Chinese saying points out, it is up to us how we respond to changing times---with spirit, or depression).

Edited December 17, 2008 by Martin

[Rinrada]

3 million people disappear...wow, hope hey all find them in the end. Would be awful if something would happened to them.

Their relatives most be worried.

Not hiding or gone missing... just keeping their nappers down.....

'Close to 3m unemployed' by 2010

from Aunty....

Businesses are struggling as the credit crunch bites.

The UK's recession will be tougher and longer than first thought, the business group CBI has warned.

It estimates that the economy will shrink by 1.7% in 2009, a dramatic downgrade from the forecast of 0.3% growth the CBI gave in September.

The group added that unemployment could peak at close to 2.9 million by 2010, up from 1.8 million at present.

Now if TAT was to offer 3 million FREE return tickets Lon-Bangers............

[snuggzzz]

The facts of this GLOBAL recession is that Thailand is not now, on the top of any Tourist destinations. Certainly not from the Countries that have in the past fuelled the Tourist Industry.

Those ex-pats who have a GB pension will soon notice the loss of a up to a third in their benefit.

I am not a doom merchant, but everything in the UK (investment wise) appart from premium bonds have gone down through the floor, as you all well know. I will always support Thailand, it's my second home......!!! However, it will not be the same for everyone......!!!

[LaoPo]

The facts of this GLOBAL recession is that Thailand is not now, on the top of any Tourist destinations. Certainly not from the Countries that have in the past fuelled the Tourist Industry.

Those ex-pats who have a GB pension will soon notice the loss of a up to a third in their benefit.

It's a common misconception by many Farang to think that Thailand has been (or IS) fueled by Western tourists.

More than 60% of tourism to Thailand comes from East and South Asian countries.

But...I've always said that the number of 13/14 million is a kind of uprated number as a few million "tourists" come from neighboring countries like Malaysia (1,5 Million !).

It is to be doubted if these numbers from neighboring countries are real tourists in the sense like we, Farang, consider tourists, tourists.

BUT, it could very well be that tourism will suffer a great deal from the recent political turmoil; the drop in tourism (due to the political turmoil) will be for the greater part from Asia and a lesser part from Western countries.

It's hard to tell whether the drop in tourism will be for the larger part because of political problems rather than the economical crisis.

LaoPo

[Merangue]

I do not differentiate between different nationalities where Tourism is concerned. Simple fact is the political turmoil, protests, airport closures etc etc etc etc ad nauseum have damaged Thailand image in the eye of ALL tourists and i would assume a hel_l of a lot of businesses too.

When you add to it the problems with the credit crunch as well then you have to consider that the PAD demonstrations have simply made a very bad situation far far worse.

Of course it is most likely to poorer citizens who will suffer most while the fat cats will still be able to eat what they wants when they want and buy anything or anyone they feel like.

Very sad that so many eople have been duped and that they are the ones most likely to reap the aftermath too.

[LaoPo]

1. I do not differentiate between different nationalities where Tourism is concerned. Simple fact is the political turmoil, protests, airport closures etc etc etc etc ad nauseum have damaged Thailand image in the eye of ALL tourists and i would assume a hel_l of a lot of businesses too.

2. When you add to it the problems with the credit crunch as well then you have to consider that the PAD demonstrations have simply made a very bad situation far far worse.

3. Of course it is most likely to poorer citizens who will suffer most while the fat cats will still be able to eat what they wants when they want and buy anything or anyone they feel like.

4. Very sad that so many eople have been duped and that they are the ones most likely to reap the aftermath too.

1. One has to make a difference between nationalities/countries as some countries are more important to Thailand than others, number-wise/money-wise. Especially the countries from Asia since they are the largest "suppliers" of tourists. But of course I agree with the fact that the image of Thailand has been severely damaged.

2. agree

3. fully agree

4. fully agree; sad enough.

LaoPo

[njpski]

Well done, PAD - butcher the economy and democracy!

We must thank the yellow shirts for this - the PAD bully boys complain about economic management - they stop a PM doing a cooking show and will now have to cook the books to show how well the country is performing under their enlightened leadership.

[hagler]

'Thai at Heart'said, in post #13:

"In the last week I know of 10 relatives and friends of family who have returned from work in Pattaya area. All were employed in hotels either as reception or waitresses/waiter. "

That is exactly what was predicted recently by a government official, and part of the the possibility that I wrote about in my MA thesis a couple of years ago----Western recession resulting in the contraction of employment in tourism and manufacture-for-export in Thailand.

It is to 'their' villages that people will look when employment in urban areas contracts. And, just as the arising of those employment opportunities caused rural-to-urban migration, so their contraction will cause urban-to-rural flow.

However, it is possible to be optimistic.

Over the past forty years, that rural-to-urban migration has done a lot of social harm to the villages (disrupted families, with kids being brougt up in the absence of their parents, and so on) and it has done social harm in urban areas, too (rising use of cheap brothels causing spread of AIDs, and so on).

It is possible that the reversal of that migration may bring about much reversal of that social harm.Looking ahead over the next forty years, it is possible to constuct a scenario of the Bangkok poulation reducing at an average of 3% per annum, (though it will come in lurches (like the one that 'Thai at Heart' is reporting), rather than smoothly), and so reducing from the present 10 million to 5 million by 2030 and to 3 million before 2050.

I call it "A smaller and more beautiful Bangkok, with bigger and better Ban Nork".

The interesting thing to watch will be the second wave of urban-to-rural migration.

This first wave will be largely composed of lower-paid workers who have not been gone from their villages for long and who will fit back in relatively smoothly.

But the second wave will contain a lot of middle-class people, looking to construct middle-class lifestyles in the rural areas. I can't foresee them being willing to leave their savings, or their political clout, behind in Bangkok.

We will live in interesting times. (And, as that old Chinese saying points out, it is up to us how we respond to changing times---with spirit, or depression).

Yes very nice for the semi-skilled and unskilled workers and other riff raff to head off back to the rice paddies where they will all be happy eating insects and drinking mekong with the family again. You must be joking. Within 2 years Thailand will be another Cambodia and all hel_l will break loose as the disenfranchised Isaan poor are led to a "workers revolution" against the ruling urban elite. At least with Thaksin you knew that his generosity towards the North was a means to keep them placated. God help the Hi-So set and the soft middle class who have gotten fat on the sweat of the families in the paddy fields when they get a true leader from amongst them. There are a number of potential candidates. Just a matter now of seeing who it will be and then the carnage will begin in earnest.

[tartempion]

... so the fall of the world economy doesnt have anything to do with it ehh?

..so the occupation of the airport doesn't have anything to do with the expected "disappearance of 3 million tourists" ehh?

Didn't I read Bangkok 5 star hotels are empty right now, some Bangkok convention cancelled due to Madoff's Ponzi scheme?

Oh, now they have Abhisit can we expect better English in official Thai statements?

[WeeGB]

tartemption wrote

Oh, now they have Abhisit can we expect better English in official Thai statements?

Why ah divvnt naa aboot that bonny lad. He's from Nyacassel.

[shawndoc]

I think its wrong to blame everything on the PAD, the world recession going on is going to hurt discretionary spending and reduce tourists. The PAD though, have clearly compounded the problem.

It will be interesting to see how similar destinations, like Bali, decline in tourist visitors in the next few months.

On the other hand, hopefully home prices in Phuket will fall back in line with where they should be, instead of inflated from all the UK people cashing in on the housing ladder and paying ridiculous sums for homes near the beach.

[TJAN]

The facts of this GLOBAL recession is that Thailand is not now, on the top of any Tourist destinations. Certainly not from the Countries that have in the past fuelled the Tourist Industry.

Those ex-pats who have a GB pension will soon notice the loss of a up to a third in their benefit.

I am not a doom merchant, but everything in the UK (investment wise) appart from premium bonds have gone down through the floor, as you all well know. I will always support Thailand, it's my second home......!!! However, it will not be the same for everyone......!!!

For better and for worse

[siam4ever]

Some have prospered heavily since the military coup of 2006, the shredding of the 1997 constitution, the military appointed rewrite, the military inspired banning of political parties, and the installing of the military aligned present government after General C. led the PAD wing on a takeover of civilian airports. No amount of arguing will quell their enthusiasm. All they see is their personal gain shining, while the Thai people suffer.

[Scott]

Thailand is like a drug; those dabbling might disappear, but the hard-core addicts will be back. No needle exchange program for them!

[PhilHarries]

3 million people disappear...wow, hope hey all find them in the end. Would be awful if something would happened to them.

Their relatives most be worried.

Good to see someone can find the loss of jobs and livelyhood a joking matter.

I don't tthink anyone's finding the loss of livelyhood humourous just TAT's way of putting it. But it is funny how TAT can always find good reason why tourist numbers are down and be able to put solid figures to the reduction. You could almost be led into suspecting such problems as the PAD occupation of Suvarnabhumi are TAT sponsored so that they can revise their deficient forecasts without losing face.

[Heng]

Serves as a nice lesson/reminder for those who haven't diversified their income streams. All good things come to an end, there was no reason to expect that the free ride of tourism would be any different.

[VegasVic]

'Thai at Heart'said, in post #13:

"In the last week I know of 10 relatives and friends of family who have returned from work in Pattaya area. All were employed in hotels either as reception or waitresses/waiter. "

That is exactly what was predicted recently by a government official, and part of the the possibility that I wrote about in my MA thesis a couple of years ago----Western recession resulting in the contraction of employment in tourism and manufacture-for-export in Thailand.

It is to 'their' villages that people will look when employment in urban areas contracts. And, just as the arising of those employment opportunities caused rural-to-urban migration, so their contraction will cause urban-to-rural flow.

However, it is possible to be optimistic.

Over the past forty years, that rural-to-urban migration has done a lot of social harm to the villages (disrupted families, with kids being brougt up in the absence of their parents, and so on) and it has done social harm in urban areas, too (rising use of cheap brothels causing spread of AIDs, and so on).

It is possible that the reversal of that migration may bring about much reversal of that social harm.Looking ahead over the next forty years, it is possible to constuct a scenario of the Bangkok poulation reducing at an average of 3% per annum, (though it will come in lurches (like the one that 'Thai at Heart' is reporting), rather than smoothly), and so reducing from the present 10 million to 5 million by 2030 and to 3 million before 2050.

I call it "A smaller and more beautiful Bangkok, with bigger and better Ban Nork".

The interesting thing to watch will be the second wave of urban-to-rural migration.

This first wave will be largely composed of lower-paid workers who have not been gone from their villages for long and who will fit back in relatively smoothly.

But the second wave will contain a lot of middle-class people, looking to construct middle-class lifestyles in the rural areas. I can't foresee them being willing to leave their savings, or their political clout, behind in Bangkok.

We will live in interesting times. (And, as that old Chinese saying points out, it is up to us how we respond to changing times---with spirit, or depression).

Yes very nice for the semi-skilled and unskilled workers and other riff raff to head off back to the rice paddies where they will all be happy eating insects and drinking mekong with the family again. You must be joking. Within 2 years Thailand will be another Cambodia and all hel_l will break loose as the disenfranchised Isaan poor are led to a "workers revolution" against the ruling urban elite. At least with Thaksin you knew that his generosity towards the North was a means to keep them placated. God help the Hi-So set and the soft middle class who have gotten fat on the sweat of the families in the paddy fields when they get a true leader from amongst them. There are a number of potential candidates. Just a matter now of seeing who it will be and then the carnage will begin in earnest.

Hagler, I think you have it about right! Since the government and the military has seen fit to not take any action against the PAD criminals, then it shows that this type of behavior will not only be tolerated without any punishment but it even looks as though it will be encouraged in the future and the rest of the world knows this and will stay away. Should unemployment get high enough and those Issanites leave BKK and Chonburi in droves and head back home, then the seeds of revolution will be sown. The people of Issan and those of the northern provinces will rise up and invoke the spirit of Ya Mo and Taksin the Great, and just as those two great warriors defeated the Burmese invaders, so too will their decendants march upon BKK and defeat the Chinese-Thai elite who have raped and defiled their country. It doesn't have to come to this, if only the military stepped up to the plate and crushed the protests and then the courts convicted and imprisoned the leaders of the PAD and siezed all their assets, then the world would at least know that Thailand was a country of laws that are taken seriously and not a lawless nation headed back into the third world. Who knows, perhaps this is a cyclical thing and the spirit of Lady Mo and Taksin the Great are destined to return and cleanse the country