Crude O I L Price

[meom]

The US rig count went down from a peak of 2487 in September 2008 to 1623 now which seems a rather big drop.

source: http://www.rigdata.com/c-7-rig-count-statistics.aspx

[sorensen]

The US rig count went down from a peak of 2487 in September 2008 to 1623 now which seems a rather big drop.

source: http://www.rigdata.com/c-7-rig-count-statistics.aspx

Baker Hughes has a drop from 2031 in week 45-2008 to 1623 in week 01-2009, roughly 20% drop.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/BHI...209_updated.xls

[sorensen]

Good US rig count graphs:

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/BHI...rigs_010209.pdf

[pampal]

the International rig count would be more germane to the discussion , than the US rig count. Since the US does not produce the majority of the world's oil.

International rig count -------- December 2008

1078

+42 for the year 2008

-18 for the month Nov-Dec 2008

-18 is not a big monthly drop. and the International rig count is still 42 above last year.

from Baker Hughes website

http://investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfm

Edited January 9, 2009 by pampal

[think_too_mut]

the International rig count would be more germane to the discussion , than the US rig count. Since the US does not produce the majority of the world's oil.

International rig count -------- December 2008

1078

+42 for the year 2008

-18 for the month Nov-Dec 2008

-18 is not a big monthly drop. and the International rig count is still 42 above last year.

from Baker Hughes website

http://investor.shareholder.com/bhi/rig_counts/rc_index.cfm

Nice.

Hugo Chavez is watching the same reports, which is good. Makes him dumber than what he is.

I love the smell of CIA in the morning. They could have made the dictators from the oil rich countries disoriented.

It did not require any invasion, dead soldiers, just get Bloomberg, CNN and Fox to propagate the stupidity.

Sorry, I have no other explanation for Goldman Sachs and other dickheads blowing their wind.

[meom]

the International rig count would be more germane to the discussion , than the US rig count. Since the US does not produce the majority of the world's oil.

That's true. In fact the majority of US rigs are looking for gas instead of oil.

[HardenedSoul]

Oil is way over priced - I suggest every one go short for the long term..... should be around $20 a barrel.

I must say you have been consistantly spot on in your predictions for the price of oil brit! I agree with you that oil is overpriced and it will drop quickly once a ceasefire is agreed to, but my target price is around $30-$32/bbl I hope you are correct again this time as I would love to see oil at $20/bbl

Well that's it, then - cheap oil is here to stay. Bring on the 6 litre V10 Dodge Vipers.

Rejoice one and all !!

[flying]

Oil is way over priced - I suggest every one go short for the long term..... should be around $20 a barrel.

I must say you have been consistantly spot on in your predictions for the price of oil brit! I agree with you that oil is overpriced and it will drop quickly once a ceasefire is agreed to, but my target price is around $30-$32/bbl I hope you are correct again this time as I would love to see oil at $20/bbl

Well that's it, then - cheap oil is here to stay. Bring on the 6 litre V10 Dodge Vipers.

Rejoice one and all !!

I did drive my V8 Dodge Ram 1500 over 200 miles yesterday

Gas was 2.40 a gallon low for here.

But man everything else is empty...........no customers in stores.........no tourist.....no nothing

[britmaveric]

Well no demand - even lower prices. Good for those of who drive.

[lannarebirth]

If crude doesn't get off todays lows PDQ, my guess is it drops another 10 bucks quickly.

[britmaveric]

[sorensen]

Matt Simmons latest presentation:

MattSimmons_Oil_s_Future_01142009.pdf

[thedivezone]

If this finanacial crisis is for real, I wouldn't expect to see crude back over 5o in the next 5 years at least.

That HAS to be the most ridiculous statement I've read this year !

You simply cannot be serious !

I positively GUARANTEE it'll be back over $50 by the end of the first quarter of '09 ! Feel free to pull me up on this by end of of March,

I don't think so.....demand going up sharp, from now around $ 36 to over $ 50...by end March 2009.... ....don't think so.

Hmmmm...

Happy Christmas

LaoPo

Today, march24th, crude oil above 53 $ !

Round 1 clearly goes to HardenedSoul !

Anyone care to speculate where we'll be at by the end of quarter 2 ?

I reckon we'll be back to 60-70 $, fingers crossed.

Mike

[Soutpeel]

If this finanacial crisis is for real, I wouldn't expect to see crude back over 5o in the next 5 years at least.

That HAS to be the most ridiculous statement I've read this year !

You simply cannot be serious !

I positively GUARANTEE it'll be back over $50 by the end of the first quarter of '09 ! Feel free to pull me up on this by end of of March,

I don't think so.....demand going up sharp, from now around $ 36 to over $ 50...by end March 2009.... ....don't think so.

Hmmmm...

Happy Christmas

LaoPo

Today, march24th, crude oil above 53 $ !

Round 1 clearly goes to HardenedSoul !

Anyone care to speculate where we'll be at by the end of quarter 2 ?

I reckon we'll be back to 60-70 $, fingers crossed.

Mike

She will be in the $55-$60 range until year end...may go a tad higher, so would think you are not far out..

[PCA]

She will be in the $55-$60 range until year end...may go a tad higher, so would think you are not far out..

wonder how you would know that. No way it will be in this range until end of the year.

[Soutpeel]

She will be in the $55-$60 range until year end...may go a tad higher, so would think you are not far out..

wonder how you would know that. No way it will be in this range until end of the year.

So where do you think it will be then ??....

I reason I give this range is that I am in the business and the educated guessing, is giving that range...

We will have to see at the end of the year who is right and who is wrong..

[PCA]

She will be in the $55-$60 range until year end...may go a tad higher, so would think you are not far out..

wonder how you would know that. No way it will be in this range until end of the year.

So where do you think it will be then ??....

I reason I give this range is that I am in the business and the educated guessing, is giving that range...

We will have to see at the end of the year who is right and who is wrong..

I don't know, just like you

[ExpatOilWorker]

I din't know why everyone worries over crude prices. It is historically "not cheap" here. During this last cycle the financial pundits were able to convince a substantial number of investors that rising oil prices were a "good" thing and that in fact "owning" commodities was an investment, which it is not. If this finanacial crisis is for real, I wouldn't expect to see crude back over 5o in the next 5 years at least.

I guess you were wrong on that one.

[Naam]

Nymex Crude Future.....100.82

Dated Brent Spot............109.73

WTI Cushing Spot...........100.99

HALLELUJAH AMEN!

[exeter]

I see oil is on the way up as Iran scatters its weaponry fearing an imminent attack from the west. I expect the next thin will be that the Straits of Homous will be spoken of and the price will rise further. After the latest diplomatic activity they will start and feel the pinch even though some european countries get their supplies from there, interesting times ahead by the look of it. Are they developing a nuclear device? Looks a bit fishy does it not. If they get one should we all worry? I would, I think it must be only trade that keeps the Russians and Chinese from closing the door on the regime. Some strange explosions in the country of late, makes you wonder what is going on. I dont think many of their arab neighbours are too happy about the situation either. What a pity no one can come up with an alternative to OIL. If it suddenly stops coming out of the ground the world as we know it will change overnight, fortunately for most of us it will not be our lifetime, we will just get away with it!

Edited December 6, 2011 by exeter

[Soutpeel]

What a pity no one can come up with an alternative to OIL. If it suddenly stops coming out of the ground the world as we know it will change overnight, fortunately for most of us it will not be our lifetime, we will just get away with it!

Wash your mouth out with soap .....$120 to $150/barrel here we come.... .......happy days a are here again...

[ExpatOilWorker]

I see oil is on the way up as Iran scatters its weaponry fearing an imminent attack from the west. I expect the next thin will be that the Straits of Homous will be spoken of and the price will rise further. After the latest diplomatic activity they will start and feel the pinch even though some european countries get their supplies from there, interesting times ahead by the look of it. Are they developing a nuclear device? Looks a bit fishy does it not. If they get one should we all worry? I would, I think it must be only trade that keeps the Russians and Chinese from closing the door on the regime. Some strange explosions in the country of late, makes you wonder what is going on. I dont think many of their arab neighbours are too happy about the situation either. What a pity no one can come up with an alternative to OIL. If it suddenly stops coming out of the ground the world as we know it will change overnight, fortunately for most of us it will not be our lifetime, we will just get away with it!

Japan, China and India are the main importers of Iranian oil. (More info here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8683#more)

Oil from Libya is still not flowing and winter is coming. Brent at $110 is the best X-mas ever. Go oil in 2012.

[Naam]

What a pity no one can come up with an alternative to OIL. If it suddenly stops coming out of the ground the world as we know it will change overnight, fortunately for most of us it will not be our lifetime, we will just get away with it!

Wash your mouth out with soap .....$120 to $150/barrel here we come.... .......happy days a are here again...

seconded! 16.5% of my income is crude oil based but as far as future prices are concerned i am less optimistic.

[Naam]

Japan, China and India are the main importers of Iranian oil. (More info here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/8683#more)

2008 graph is outdated. average daily crude export in 2011 from Iran to China 560,000 barrels = UP!

[lannarebirth]

I din't know why everyone worries over crude prices. It is historically "not cheap" here. During this last cycle the financial pundits were able to convince a substantial number of investors that rising oil prices were a "good" thing and that in fact "owning" commodities was an investment, which it is not. If this finanacial crisis is for real, I wouldn't expect to see crude back over 5o in the next 5 years at least.

I guess you were wrong on that one.

Indeed I was. Not for the first time either.

[exeter]

What a pity no one can come up with an alternative to OIL. If it suddenly stops coming out of the ground the world as we know it will change overnight, fortunately for most of us it will not be our lifetime, we will just get away with it!

Wash your mouth out with soap .....$120 to $150/barrel here we come.... .......happy days a are here again...

I think the days of cheap easy to get oil are long gone, peak oil was when about 1970? More and more vehicles and energy demanding countries will certainly drive the price up. Are the proven reserves accurate? I doubt it. When water stars coming out instead of oil will be a black day and I wonder how far away that day is. Until that day those of you who have invested in the black gold I see a good lift and good dividends, enjoy it while you can. Can you imagine the panic when the wells start to dry up?

[Naam]

I think the days of cheap easy to get oil are long gone, peak oil was when about 1970? More and more vehicles and energy demanding countries will certainly drive the price up. Are the proven reserves accurate? I doubt it. When water stars coming out instead of oil will be a black day and I wonder how far away that day is. Until that day those of you who have invested in the black gold I see a good lift and good dividends, enjoy it while you can. Can you imagine the panic when the wells start to dry up?

peak oil wasn't 1970 but the price was then extremely low. by the way, it is not easy to invest directly in the black gold and in many cases even a two-edged sword. less production will most probably drive up the price but less production might mean also less profit and less dividends.

moreover one has to look at crude's extremely huge price fluctuations which do not necessarily guarantee fat dividends.

Edited December 7, 2011 by Naam

[exeter]

I think the days of cheap easy to get oil are long gone, peak oil was when about 1970? More and more vehicles and energy demanding countries will certainly drive the price up. Are the proven reserves accurate? I doubt it. When water stars coming out instead of oil will be a black day and I wonder how far away that day is. Until that day those of you who have invested in the black gold I see a good lift and good dividends, enjoy it while you can. Can you imagine the panic when the wells start to dry up?

peak oil wasn't 1970 but the price was then extremely low. by the way, it is not easy to invest directly in the black gold and in many cases even a two-edged sword. less production will most probably drive up the price but less production might mean also less profit and less dividends.

moreover one has to look at crude's extremely huge price fluctuations which do not necessarily guarantee fat dividends.

Mr Naam you are indeed a wise head and a knowledgeable one too, I did not make myself clear when I mentioned peak oil, I was not talking oil price, I was talking more production and finding resources, there have been few major finds since that time that ( 1970's) that are easy to get at, the one off Brazil which has been found is going to be a challenge, the carving up of the arctic will present new challenges, they will get them but they will not be cheap, the days of finding big new fields are gone, reserves and proven reserves are only going one way, that is a worry for us all because there is no obvious replacement, whilst the price rises you who have interests in oil will prosper but when the panic sets in your paper money will be nothing.

As far as dividends are concerned my guess is that most UK pension funds have BP and Shell in their portfolio for the dividend, I do not know how other oil companies figure in this field I have to admit but at the moment if someone left me some shares in these companies I would be happy with the dividends coming in.

.

[Naam]

1. Mr Naam you are indeed a wise head and a knowledgeable one too, I did not make myself clear when I mentioned peak oil, I was not talking oil price, I was talking more production and finding resources,

2. there have been few major finds since that time that ( 1970's) that are easy to get at.

3. Can you imagine the panic when the wells start to dry up?

1. i knew what you meant with peak oil. your references concerning production as well as finds are unfortunately incorrect. by the way, production peak was in 1979.

2. there have been major finds galore since 1970, example the recent ones in the Orinoco Basin which propelled Venezuela ahead of Saudi Arabia. total global proven crude reserves (excluding oil sands and excluding potential production possibilities of less than 90%) have more than doubled since 1970 from ~550 to ~1,200 Gigabarrels.

3. wells do not dry up and production does not stop overnight. besides, not too many readers of this thread, who live in Thailand based on a retiree "visa", will live to experience any related panic.

:jap:

[Soutpeel]

I was talking more production and finding resources, there have been few major finds since that time that ( 1970's) that are easy to get at, the one off Brazil which has been found is going to be a challenge, the carving up of the arctic will present new challenges, they will get them but they will not be cheap, the days of finding big new fields are gone, reserves and proven reserves are only going one way, that is a worry for us all because there is no obvious replacement, whilst the price rises you who have interests in oil will prosper but when the panic sets in your paper money will be nothing.

Plenty of oil and gas left in the world, the problem is the cost of getting it out the ground...