Car Production Could Fall 35 Percent In Thailand

[Mai Krap]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/articl...VvqIdgD95AU4906

The Associated Press

Car production could fall 35 percent in Thailand

BANGKOK, Thailand (AP) — Vehicle production in Thailand could fall as much as 35 percent next year if the global economy continues to worsen, a leading auto institute said Saturday.

Thailand is a major production and export hub for pickup trucks made by General Motors Corp., Toyota Motor Corp., Isuzu Motors Ltd. and Mitsubishi Motors Corp. — all suffering in the midst of a global downturn.

Wallop Tiasiri, director of the Thailand Automotive Institute, estimated the decline in Thailand would more likely be about 15 percent. But he said a gloomier economic outlook in the United States and Europe could result in a production drop of 35 percent and the loss of 45,000 jobs.

"If the economic situation in major markets, especially in the United States and Europe, deteriorates much further, our production could go down by 35 percent or to 900,000 units," he said. "However, I think this worst case scenario will not be realized."

Vehicle production in Thailand hit 1.4 million units this year, up from 1.29 million units a year ago, Wallop said. The sector employs 300,000 people, about a third of them who are subcontracted.

Most analysts have predicted the automotive sector in Thailand would eventually be hit as vehicle manufacturers worldwide are cutting production amid the global financial downturn.

Last month, General Motors said it would stop production at its Thai plant for up to two months. General Motors and Chrysler LLC earlier this month were granted $17.4 billion in federal loans so they can stay afloat.

"Currently the Thai auto industry is still relatively strong. Every company still has their cash inflow," Wallop said. "However, we have to admit the slump of the global markets will hit local companies."

[Mai Krap]

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/24...ly-in-2009.html

Car production in Thailand projected to fall sharply in 2009

Posted : Sat, 27 Dec 2008 04:39:12 GMT

Author : DPA

Bangkok - Rapidly sliding global demand is expected to cut Thai automobile production by more than 35 per cent next year, said a report Saturday. The number of vehicles produced could drop from 1.4 million this year to less than 1 million, if domestic sales fall 10 per cent and exports crash 50 per cent, Wallop Taisiri, director of the Thailand Automotive Institute, was quoted as saying by the Bangkok Post.

Thousands of workers have already lost jobs and more are at risk, the report said.

The Commerce Ministry said last week the country's total exports dropped in November for the first time in six years, by 18.6 per cent.

About 60 per cent of Thai vehicle production is exported.

Thailand also has an extensive parts industry supplying vehicle manufacturers, noted Wallop. He predicted as many as 45,000 workers could lose their jobs.

"It probably won't be as bad as the 1997 (financial) crisis, when vehicle production fell to 140,000 units. But I expect to see this crisis last longer because we rely heavily on exports, and the slump is global," Wallop said. "Things may bottom out next year but we may need two years to move out of crisis."

The Federation of Thai Industries will meet early next year to coordinate requests for government help.

[Scott]

Whee are Thai vehicles exported to?

[sassienie]

This means less cars on the road.

Can`t be a bad thing.

[Merangue]

Nope. It means older Cars on the road in disrepair and more people out of work. Generally a bad thing.

[Mai Krap]

BoT asserts Thailand won't experience economic crisis

BANGKOK, Dec. 27 (PNA/TNA) -– Bank of Thailand (BoT) Deputy Governor Atchana Waiquamdee on Friday asserted Thailand would not experience an economic crisis despite the global economic meltdown because its economy is immune to such effects following the crisis in 1997.

She said whether the Thai economy would slow sharply or not for next year depends on the global economic conditions. No one could guess the situation.

What is of concern now is a sharp decline in the export growth to 5 per cent in October from 20 per cent the previous month. It showed a further slowdown in the export sector.

Next year, she admitted economies of Thailand's three major export destinations including the United States, Japan, and the European Union would be in recession.

Under the circumstance, it is very difficult for the export sector to escape unscratched.

Mrs. Atchana said the central bank would from now on give a priority to supervising the country's economic growth in the monetary policy implementation after the inflation rate had declined considerably.

She conceded the poor would experience difficulties if the economy grows only 0-2 per cent next year.

However, she believed the unemployment would not be as serious as that of 1997 when the country experienced the economic crisis although the number of jobless people would reach 800,000-900,000 next year.

What she is concerned now is the political conflicts, which dragged on for more than 3 years, and the unprecedented divisiveness among people in the country.

"This year should be noted as an historic one because the Monetary Policy Committee decided to cut the policy interest rate by 1 per cent at one time while the US interest rate is as low as 0-0.25 per cent," she said. (PNA/TNA)

DCT/rsm

[Mai Krap]

Sat, December 27, 2008 : Last updated 15:26 hours

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/27...ss_30091980.php

UNEMPLOYMENT, November job losses hit 70,000

By THE NATION

Many more lay-offs expected

About 70,000 jobs were lost in November, and many more are expected to follow in the next six months as the global economic crisis reaches Thailand, forcing business operators into more lay-offs, says the National Statistical Office (NSO).

Last month, the number of unemployed reached 520,000, up from 450,000 in October.

The unemployment rate crept from 1.2 per cent of the workforce in October to 1.4 per cent in November.

"Unemployment is 1.1-per-cent higher year on year. It's worrisome, given that unemployment is rising in the last quarter, when unemployment is usually the lowest of the year at that time," secretary-general Thananuch Tritipphayabutr said yesterday.

The results were from a national survey designed to demonstrate the effects of the economic slowdown on business operators and individuals.

The National Economic and Social Development Board earlier predicted unemployment of at least 2-2.5 per cent next year, up from 1.4 per cent estimated for 2007. That would mean 900,000 workers out of the 37.6-million-strong workforce out of a job.

Thotsaphon Wangsilabat, president of the Federation of Thai Industries in Ayutthaya, said in his province alone, which housed the largest number of electronic manufacturing plants, 100,000 workers could be laid off.

"Our survey shows orders have fallen 50-80 per cent and that executives must review data on a weekly basis. The manufacturing sector is in dire need of a government injection [of funds]," he said.

Bank of Thailand Deputy Governor Atchana Waiquamdee admitted unemployment could rise further but insisted the situation would not be as severe as in 1997, due mainly to the healthy condition of the banking industry and the overall economy.

An NSO survey showed 96 per cent of large companies employing more than 200 employees agreed the global economic crisis had reached the Thai economy, with 58.6 per cent saying the impact was severe. While 90.2 per cent believed their own business would be affected, 98.1 per cent said they would continue operations, 0.7 per cent would shut down temporarily, 0.6 per cent would shut down permanently and 0.6 per cent would change their business. The operators confirmed they had witnessed a drop in orders, net profit, liquidity and customer payments.

"Notably, the problems are expected to intensify in the next six months," Thananuch said.

The NSO survey showed 10.2 per cent of business operators had laid off permanent staff, while 19.1 per cent had shed temporary workers and might lay off permanent employees in the next six months.

As well, 8.3 per cent said they had cut the work period, while 13.6 per cent planned to follow suit in the next six months; and 43.3 per cent had cut overtime hours, while 48.7 per cent would do so in the next six months.

The NSO expects hotel and restaurant operators as well as auto, motorbike, electronics, jewellery and furniture factories to lay off workers in the next six months, There is also high possibility that more subcontract workers in the auto and motorbike plants will also be axed in that period.

Despite the economic slowdown, the average monthly expenses of Thais have risen from Bt14,500 last year to Bt16,105 this year. They have cut spending on luxury items while still being thrifty with fuel and energy. This has led the NSO to estimate that poverty will affect 8.9 per cent of population this year, up from 8.5 per cent last year.

"It's frightening, because the poverty rate had been declining since 2002," the NSO's Thananuch said.

Meanwhile, 200 workers of Sammi Sound Tech (Thailand) in Samut Prakan closed Theparak Road yesterday in a bid to pressure the Labour Protection and Welfare Department's local office to make the company's South Korean owners pay compensation.

They said the plant closed two months ago but that the employers fled and failed to pay compensation yesterday as promised.

One worker said total compensation would amount to Bt16 million but that the employer had paid out only Bt4 million.

[Priceless]

Whee are Thai vehicles exported to?

Asia, Europe, South Africa...

/ Priceless

[Mai Krap]

Forgive me for entertaining myself with the news of this sinking ship known as Thailand. I would be laughing and dancing knowing that I was correct about the near future accept the failure of the "Elite" will in no way effect them negatively, their party will go on. It is my Thai family who does the back breaking work in the fields of Isarn who will suffer all the more and it is the next generation who have lost.

At one time I was a true believer, I spread the great message of Thailand. I convinced others to invest money here, build businesses here, to envision a great future as Thailand had such promise. I apologize to those people, I was wrong, we all gambled and now we have all lost. I once new a photographer who published a book named "Goodbye Bangkok" well Goodbye Thailand, once I thought of you so fondly, I will greatly miss the Thailand I fell in love with.

[sassienie]

Nope. It means older Cars on the road in disrepair and more people out of work. Generally a bad thing.

OH NO IT DOSN`T

[PeaceBlondie]

I read a reasonably reliable report last night that in the major market of the USA, it is not only the Big 3 auto makers whose sales are down by over 30% in November. Toyota and Honda are down that much, and Porsche down by 50 percent! This suggests that the Thai car export market has to decrease at least 35 percent, at least in the short term of early 2009.

[tig28]

Whee are Thai vehicles exported to?

Asia, Europe, South Africa...

/ Priceless

Australia

[think_too_mut]

Forgive me for entertaining myself with the news of this sinking ship known as Thailand. I would be laughing and dancing knowing that I was correct about the near future accept the failure of the "Elite" will in no way effect them negatively, their party will go on.

That's where you were wrong: it's elite (assuming elite is not the elite card) whose party is over and those related to them (foreigners too) are holding theirs with cordials watered as drinks instead of champagne.

The elite, represented by PAD reactionaries, are those losing out now and set to lose more in the future. I am actually very happy to see they harmed the most their own supporters, higher and middle class, those thriving on confidence related businesses and finance and discretionary spending like tourism. Think of Thai Airways, a declared PAD supporter, all those pilots and staff scaling down or shutting flights.

It is my Thai family who does the back breaking work in the fields of Isarn who will suffer all the more and it is the next generation who have lost.

That's another wrong. Isaan farmers will not lose their market, people won't stop eating and they are the backbone of Thai rice exports (World's No.1). Their skills and work will remain in constant demand.

In Thai version of booms, income of top 10% triples, of bottom 10% (factory and construction workers) barely changes.

So, when the bust comes, it's for those who enjoyed it : the top 10%, for the masses no change.

You posted articles about unemployment. Did you read them?

Probably not, otherwise jump of unemployed from 1.2 to 1.4% would have attracted your attention.

1.4% is nothing, no country in the world has it that low. Even in Japan it's near 5%.

Thai definition of unemployment is something like "people who had a job, lost it, and are seeking a new one".

What happens there, without looking for another job, they simply pack up (easy to spot them, they squat in the trays of pickup trucks) and go upcountry to dip into family rice bowl. That explains lack of social unrest in 1997. and now and next year.

Edited December 28, 2008 by think_too_mut

[think_too_mut]

This means less cars on the road.

Can`t be a bad thing.

If you look at the cars in the streets and shopping malls, they are mostly brand new.

Less cars manufactured in Thailand would be felt in a different way - less disposable income, stricter finance approval and fewer buyers.

The cars already on the road won't be replaced after 3 years as they used to be in 2002-2007.

May take longer, 5-6 years. Quality wise, the cars are equal to Japanese built (which they are, it's Japanese factories and Japanese management). They won't fall apart like Lada or Trabant.

If car replacement stops today, Thailand is probably 2 decades from exhibiting Havana type jalopies on the streets.

But number of cars won't fall in a visible way any time soon. Traffic jams are here to stay.

[dumball]

I think some of the better informed and knowledgeavble should factor in the changes in the 'Big 3 ' of North America , GM in particular , they now have a new quasi BOSS in the form of the government , who is to moniter improvements to the advantage of Americans at large . Do you not think they will now need to bring existing farmed out contracts from places like Thailand back to the homeland , this would be to keep the local populace in automotive reliant cities off of unemployment benifits and save the governments huge rise in expenditure , and give much needed spending power by the people , which would then have a ripple effect to pull the general economy up by its boot-laces .

[think_too_mut]

Do you not think they will now need to bring existing farmed out contracts from places like Thailand back to the homeland , this would be to keep the local populace in automotive reliant cities off of unemployment benifits

No, it won't help them an inch. GM's problem in America was not in manufacturing, it's in selling the the manufactured cars.

Even worse: by your idea, shifting production from Asia would only add to unsold stock in America. Too expensive to ship the cars back to Asia.

So, the cars that would have been easily sold at the source (Asia today) will just rust in GM's yards in America.

GM in Asia is doing well, even great. A coleague from my company, dedicated to GM in Rayong tells me, if GM in Detroit bankrupted today, it will take years to drag down it's Asian branches.

[dumball]

Very good response , certainly enlightened me , that is why I posed my question , I was always told as a young fellow "If you do not ask , you lost an opertunity to learn that which you may find usefull at a later date "

[Mai Krap]

Think To Mut, You've got it all wrong, are completely out of touch with the reality of this situation. The Elite, The people puppeting PAD will certainly loose some financial ground but they will remain the Elite economically by double dealing and ripping off the disadvantaged as they always have. The price of rice and demand for rice is irrelevant to the field hand as they will always receive the smallest financial gain from farming. The middlemen and and mills will do as they always have paying less and charging more as they are third largest "Mafia" in Thailand behind the police and the military and none of them give a damm about anyone but themselves.

Nationalism in Thailand is in no way relative to Patriotism in America, its just a mob mentality with a mafioso morality, most of the flag holders are only cannon fodder as those who gain and lose power do it from offices within mansions and towers protected by private armies.

Anyone who believes PAD represents the middle class needs to understand that their middle class as described by international media is actually the equivalent of second tier Elites who also need to protect their position by limiting competition and keeping the masses from having any political power. Just go back and read their proposals, now look at their actions, does anyone believe they represent the farmer turned small business owner? Or is it obvious they wish for everyone under them to remain under them through protectionism and loyalties to powers who supplied their original bone? No business in Thailand wants any competition nor did any of the "Privileged" want any political competition, there is nothing democratic about Thailand other than every group wishing to move the goals everytime a ball is put into play.

My quotes were intentioned to lay a little light on the hypocrisy of claiming that Thailand is not in financial trouble when every single indication is that not only is Thailand in trouble, it is in big trouble.

[imaneggspurt]

Whee are Thai vehicles exported to?

Worldwide scott, from aus to s africa,.. toyota sales are down 21.9 per cent in november, the first time since records began, i think a drop of 35 per cent may be an underestimation im afraid,.

[imaneggspurt]

Do you not think they will now need to bring existing farmed out contracts from places like Thailand back to the homeland , this would be to keep the local populace in automotive reliant cities off of unemployment benifits

No, it won't help them an inch. GM's problem in America was not in manufacturing, it's in selling the the manufactured cars.

Even worse: by your idea, shifting production from Asia would only add to unsold stock in America. Too expensive to ship the cars back to Asia.

So, the cars that would have been easily sold at the source (Asia today) will just rust in GM's yards in America.

GM in Asia is doing well, even great. A coleague from my company, dedicated to GM in Rayong tells me, if GM in Detroit bankrupted today, it will take years to drag down it's Asian branches.

I think youll find chevrolet/isuzu are part of GM and arent doing so well..