Serious Investment Advice Please

[torrenova]

There are no emerging markets at the moment. Only submerging.

I got out of investments and keep most of it in cash.

About 30% is now in physical gold (normally in Thai Baht) and i am aiming for around 50%.

No dollars or pounds as these are going to go down more.

I have around 20% in call option spreads which expire in dec 2013. ROI on those is between -30% and +350%.

If you talk about other 'investments' like a guesthouse or restaurant. In my opinion that is spending money to get more work and us such not really an investment but buying yourself a job (and a visa).

If you never did anything on the stockmarket, now is not the time to start learning. Put it in the bank for around 5-6%. In the Netherlands i have seen 6.5%. I hope that is enough to keep up with inflation. Another reason why i got into gold.

So far so good, but like any investment it can go wrong, so don't invest everything in one instrument.

what currency? Zimbabwe Dollars per hour? annual rate for cowry shells?

I've got to drag you out for a beer one day Naam as you are always guaranteed to put a smile on my face. Cheers

[GuestHouse]

The only certain advice I feel I can offer is avoid any 'schemes' that come to you by way of a Personal Message in response to the question you ask in this thread.

Your nest egg will undoubtedly be seen as someone else's 'opportunity'.

[LaoPo]

The pain is bigger when you don't spread it around.

One of the reason i am in gold right now. Nobody knows that i have it, it is not taxed and it is more solid then fiat money at the time. Having it sit in a vault in Switserland is safer then with the bank at the moment. And it is very easy to do.

LaoPo

[Naam]

There are no emerging markets at the moment. Only submerging.

I got out of investments and keep most of it in cash.

About 30% is now in physical gold (normally in Thai Baht) and i am aiming for around 50%.

No dollars or pounds as these are going to go down more.

I have around 20% in call option spreads which expire in dec 2013. ROI on those is between -30% and +350%.

If you talk about other 'investments' like a guesthouse or restaurant. In my opinion that is spending money to get more work and us such not really an investment but buying yourself a job (and a visa).

If you never did anything on the stockmarket, now is not the time to start learning. Put it in the bank for around 5-6%. In the Netherlands i have seen 6.5%. I hope that is enough to keep up with inflation. Another reason why i got into gold.

So far so good, but like any investment it can go wrong, so don't invest everything in one instrument.

what currency? Zimbabwe Dollars per hour? annual rate for cowry shells?

I've got to drag you out for a beer one day Naam as you are always guaranteed to put a smile on my face. Cheers

actually my posting should not put a smile on your face Torrenova. KhunJean publishing that in Europe 6.5% interest is paid without mentioning the currency or restriction means confusing and/or misguiding advice seeking TV-members who might think it applies to major currencies like USD, EUR or GBP.

of course bait offers of fancy interest rates from various banks do exist. but if you read the fine print you'll find out that they are restricted to miniscule amounts, valid for a few months and "available only to those investors who are at least 95 years old and open an account accompanied by both parents".

[Naam]

Please inform tax rate on interest in The Netherlands.

no taxes are deducted if you are living outside the European Union.

[Khun Jean]

I did not know that is was not obvious i was talking about a normal currency like a euro as i said i saw it in The Netherlands, and as far as i know we don't use a Zimbabwian dollar.

However i proofed it with showing the website that show all the interest rates of different banks. Some with good conditions some with less good. A normal savings account gives you 5 - 5.5%. Higher interest rates are normal at this moment.

A year ago it was normal to have around 6% on British, Australian and New Zealand money. Now it is like that for the euro. Nothing scary about it, and they are just deposits like always. And as always longer deposits can give higher rates.

Time you got out of your hammock Naam and have a look around what is happening in the world. Ridiculing other peoples post with Klingon one-liners is getting rather boring.

Edited December 30, 2008 by Khun Jean

[Naam]

I did not know that is was not obvious i was talking about a normal currency like a euro as i said i saw it in The Netherlands, and as far as i know we don't use a Zimbabwian dollar.

However i proofed it with showing the website that show all the interest rates of different banks. Some with good conditions some with less good. A normal savings account gives you 5 - 5.5%. Higher interest rates are normal at this moment.

A year ago it was normal to have around 6% on British, Australian and New Zealand money. Now it is like that for the euro. Nothing scary about it, and they are just deposits like always. And as always longer deposits can give higher rates.

Time you got out of your hammock Naam and have a look around what is happening in the world. Ridiculing other peoples post with Klingon one-liners is getting rather boring.

i have sent your link to two dutch friends to find out the catches. the stated rates are clearly fishy. besides, your link is not from any of the banks but from a third party and it is not dated.

it is impossible that banks like RaboBank or ING pay interest rates far above LIBOR as well as far above refinancing rates from the European Central Bank on government guaranteed accounts.

"getting out of the hammock" and "down from cloud nine" applies to you and "now it is like that for the EURo" is simply rubbish.

[chiang mai]

I did not know that is was not obvious i was talking about a normal currency like a euro as i said i saw it in The Netherlands, and as far as i know we don't use a Zimbabwian dollar.

However i proofed it with showing the website that show all the interest rates of different banks. Some with good conditions some with less good. A normal savings account gives you 5 - 5.5%. Higher interest rates are normal at this moment.

A year ago it was normal to have around 6% on British, Australian and New Zealand money. Now it is like that for the euro. Nothing scary about it, and they are just deposits like always. And as always longer deposits can give higher rates.

Time you got out of your hammock Naam and have a look around what is happening in the world. Ridiculing other peoples post with Klingon one-liners is getting rather boring.

i have sent your link to two dutch friends to find out the catches. the stated rates are clearly fishy. besides, your link is not from any of the banks but from a third party and it is not dated.

it is impossible that banks like RaboBank or ING pay interest rates far above LIBOR as well as far above refinancing rates from the European Central Bank on government guaranteed accounts.

"getting out of the hammock" and "down from cloud nine" applies to you and "now it is like that for the EURo" is simply rubbish.

I'm not that sure, a large number of EU banks are paying 6% on EU term deposits, I think it's the old story of banks trying to buy business and shore up their balance sheets.

[lannarebirth]

It is best to bait your trap with the most fragrant cheese.

[torrenova]

actually my posting should not put a smile on your face Torrenova. KhunJean publishing that in Europe 6.5% interest is paid without mentioning the currency or restriction means confusing and/or misguiding advice seeking TV-members who might think it applies to major currencies like USD, EUR or GBP.

of course bait offers of fancy interest rates from various banks do exist. but if you read the fine print you'll find out that they are restricted to miniscule amounts, valid for a few months and "available only to those investors who are at least 95 years old and open an account accompanied by both parents".

Your beating me to KhunJean's post and your wry humorous repost where others could have used a direct rebuttal of her claims was classic in your mould. Lest we forget that some believe that which they read, especially when they perceive the correspondent to be knowledgeable or has a four figure post count !

We should perhaps go back to the BCCI scandal and see how supposedly wise councils in the UK deposited their funds with a bank which the majority had never heard of, simply because it was offering extraordinarily high rates of return. Banks cannot fail they thought ! Even now, the UK councils are bleating about money held or lost in Icelandic bank accounts. Presumably they too were offering above normal rates of return.

Of course, some institutions are safe (or relatively so or with government protection) but as you rightly point out, these headline grabbing rates, if they are available, are only for very restricted amounts in many cases. Else I should have retired many years ago as the guru of interest rate arbitrage !

[chiang mai]

Well, call me foolish if you want to but I think this whole business of currencies has completed the vast majority of their respective runs for quite some time to come, certainly there will be movement between them but for the most part I think it is likely to be gradual and minimal by comparison from this point onwards and we're unlikely to see a recurrence of the sharp falls and corrections that we've experienced to date, in the majors at least.

For my part I am starting to feel an itch about equities and the time is getting near when I may have to have a scratch or two! I've never been involved in equities before but it seems to me there is sufficient history out there right now to tell an improving story on this front and I sense it might be almost time to buy into the recovery, with a medium to long term view in mind of course.

On that note, everyone have a wonderful 2009.

[MyphuketLife]

Best advice, don't invest it all, don't invest more than you are willing to loose.... Allot of people come here with theiir life savings and open a business only to loose it all and go home broke.... Be carefull, and always leave reserves incase your investment fails. Good Luck to you!

[sometime]

Iam looking for some good advice,no invest in bars etc etc, Iam looking at investing 100k sterling but really not sure where.Iam not looking at super human returns,just a nice 6 or 7 % guarenteed would be fine.If more is possible then great.

Any serious advice much appreciated.

EPG.

Well I am happy and still getting above 7% take a look at their website http://www.centurionfundmanagers.com/defin...und-profile.php

[Khun Jean]

Banks paying more than LIBOR is because they need the money for their fractional lending system. Most countries allow 1:10 meaning every amount you deposit they can lend out 10 times, earning money on your deposit many times times more they pay in interest.

And as long as you spread your money around to be the maximum guaranteed there is no risk. Except inflation of course.

[LaoPo]

Banks paying more than LIBOR is because they need the money for their fractional lending system. Most countries allow 1:10 meaning every amount you deposit they can lend out 10 times, earning money on your deposit many times times more they pay in interest.

And as long as you spread your money around to be the maximum guaranteed there is no risk. Except inflation of course.

I disagree and your argument doesn't make sense. Banks are swimming in their money and the 1:10 (actually 1:9) lending system is nothing new. It's old news and one of the reasons banks started to become greedy and found the 1:9 system not to be enough and started buying the BS subprime- and other products from America where the products were leveraged up to 1:40 and even more.

That's why the bulk of hedge funds will fall over if they didn't already.

If you would have said that banks need the money (especially towards the end of any given year) to boost their balance sheets it would have made more sense but not for their lending system.

As an example: I noticed a bank from your list, giving 5% for 1 year fixed (and not to be touched or 1% to 2% cost for withdraws) and 2.35% for 2 years; that says something about the luring system.

I'll bet the percentages will be changed in the first days of the new year.

Happy New Year to all !

LaoPo

[Khun Jean]

Banks that swim in money (government bailouts) like to hold on to it. Smaller banks don't have that much 'fat'. The reason most of the times small banks can offer better rates. Nobody forces anybody to 'invest' in a savings account. It is a savings account! Investing means more risk and if the rates from the banks are relatively high seems to me a good reason to set aside some money and wait for a turnaround. The bottom is not there yet in my opinion.

5% fixed for 1 year is a great return these days because it is without risk.

[mommysboy]

Iam looking for some good advice,no invest in bars etc etc, Iam looking at investing 100k sterling but really not sure where.Iam not looking at super human returns,just a nice 6 or 7 % guarenteed would be fine.If more is possible then great.

Any serious advice much appreciated.

EPG.

Yes, don't do anything other than keep it in a good building socirty/bank deposit account in UK. Your naivety in suggesting 'just" 6-7% suggests you are the sort of serial loser that could losre the lot otherwise.

[LaoPo]

Banks that swim in money (government bailouts) like to hold on to it. Smaller banks don't have that much 'fat'. The reason most of the times small banks can offer better rates. Nobody forces anybody to 'invest' in a savings account. It is a savings account! Investing means more risk and if the rates from the banks are relatively high seems to me a good reason to set aside some money and wait for a turnaround. The bottom is not there yet in my opinion.

5% fixed for 1 year is a great return these days because it is without risk.

That's a kind of logic I can't follow....the -smaller- banks with less fat offer more money (interest...) ? Did you make that up yourself or did those bank tell you so ?

I better wait for the new year.

LaoPo

[Khun Jean]

Well easy really, they have less money so they need ours before they can lend out again.

So they offer a better deal. Economics 101.

[LaoPo]

Well easy really, they have less money so they need ours before they can lend out again.

So they offer a better deal. Economics 101.

I better not invest with ''your'' banks; none of my friends and business friends would btw...economics 102

I wish you luck though with your stashed away Swiss gold.

Happy New Year !

LaoPo

[Khun Jean]

Happy New Year!

My money is not in the bank, i rather see them go busts and try again without fractional banking.

"More Gold in the Vault!" is my new years resolution.

Austrian economics

And lets hope that we really are at the economic bottom now.

Edited January 1, 2009 by Khun Jean

[LaoPo]

Happy New Year!

My money is not in the bank, i rather see them go busts and try again without fractional banking.

"More Gold in the Vault!" is my new years resolution.

Austrian economics

And lets hope that we really are at the economic bottom now.

Gold Futures Decline, Head for Smallest Annual Gain Since 2001

Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices fell for the second straight day as the dollar rallied, reducing the appeal of the precious metal as an alternative investment.

Gold, up more than 3 percent this year, headed for the smallest annual gain since 2001. The dollar was poised for the first advance since 2005 against a weighted basket of six major currencies. Gold and other commodities often move in the opposite direction of the greenback. The metal is down 16 percent from a record $1,033.90 an ounce in March.

“We’re seeing a pop in the dollar and gold moving lower,” said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. “People just flocked to the safety of the dollar this year, and all commodities were being sold off in this fire-sale manner.”

Gold futures for February delivery dropped $1.50, or 0.2 percent, to $868.50 an ounce at 11:46 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The credit crisis forced investors to sell commodities to cover losses in other markets this year. Crude oil, corn, soybeans, wheat and copper also have tumbled from records.

<snip>

“We’re seeing a pop in the dollar and gold moving lower,” said Matt Zeman, a metals trader at LaSalle Futures Group in Chicago. “People just flocked to the safety of the dollar this year, and all commodities were being sold off in this fire-sale manner.”

Gold futures for February delivery dropped $1.50, or 0.2 percent, to $868.50 an ounce at 11:46 a.m. on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The credit crisis forced investors to sell commodities to cover losses in other markets this year. Crude oil, corn, soybeans, wheat and copper also have tumbled from records.

<snip>

“It all came down to the collapse of the credit market and everybody getting squeezed,” Zeman said. “The speculators were out in droves early in the year, and we saw the run-up in gold and oil. This whole credit crisis is unprecedented and all the big players bailed on their commodity positions to cover losses in equities.”

<snip>

Gold joined cocoa, sugar and hogs as the only commodities in the CRB index posting 2008 gains. Demand from investors seeking a store of value helped limit the metal’s losses.

Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, has climbed 24 percent this year to a record 780.2 metric tons on Dec. 29.

Gold was poised for the eighth straight annual gain. Last year (2007, LP), the market jumped 31 percent, the most since 1979.

<snip>

Gold may benefit as U.S. government policies result in inflation in the long term, said Chip Hanlon, the president of Delta Global Advisors Inc. in Huntington Beach, California.

“The Fed believes it has to prop up the financial system,” Hanlon said. “The move toward quantitative easing to fight what they perceive as deflation ultimately will lead to higher rates of inflation.”

Silver futures for March delivery climbed 6 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $11.04 an ounce on the Comex. Before today, the price declined 26 percent this year.

Silver is cheap around $11, Hanlon said.

“I like gold and silver, but I like silver just a little bit better,” Hanlon said.

Platinum futures for April delivery rose $3.60, or 0.4 percent, to $921 an ounce on the Nymex. Palladium for March delivery rose $3.40 or 1.9 percent, to $187.55 an ounce.

-Bloomberg

Note1: It's silly to say that you want to see the banks go bust. You're not realizing the entire world would collapse within 1 week without any banks, functioning.

Note2: You hope we are at the economic bottom now.....you haven't seen anything yet...the circus just opened

LaoPo

[LaoPo]

Those that are in metals, do not really care about 2 days worth of action, as its just noise. Unless, one was in a futures trade and leveraged. Also, when I see articles like this, force feed to the general Joe, the contrarian in me smiles, as it is a possible signal that the metals will be bullish in the near future.

I agree VIBE/non-Joe the contrarian....especially if one just bought gold; but it could also be impossible the same as it is "possible"

When I read something like this in the previous article: "...“The speculators were out in droves early in the year, and we saw the run-up in gold and oil."" ...the word Lemmings springs to mind.

I notice members on the board I didn't see for years in the business forum and suddenly I hear all over: buy buy buy gold gold BUY GOLD.....

Really ?

10 Years Gold Chart - Kitco

LaoPo

[Naam]

Banks that swim in money (government bailouts) like to hold on to it. Smaller banks don't have that much 'fat'. The reason most of the times small banks can offer better rates. Nobody forces anybody to 'invest' in a savings account. It is a savings account! Investing means more risk and if the rates from the banks are relatively high seems to me a good reason to set aside some money and wait for a turnaround. The bottom is not there yet in my opinion.

5% fixed for 1 year is a great return these days because it is without risk.

That's a kind of logic I can't follow....the -smaller- banks with less fat offer more money (interest...) ? Did you make that up yourself or did those bank tell you so ?

I better wait for the new year.

LaoPo

here's the beef Gentlemen and the proof that there is no free lunch even though some people might have wet dreams about it. the simple reason for the high interest rates is that deposits are NOT GUARANTEED.

now perhaps some of the financial experts here will pipe down?

Indien u een achtergesteld deposito van DSB Bank opent, krijgt u een vordering op DSB Bank, die achtergesteld is ten opzichte van alle andere crediteuren van de bank. Achtergesteld houdt in dat u bij een eventueel faillissement van uw bank als laatste het geld terugkrijgt. Daarnaast is het belangrijk om te vermelden dat het Achtergesteld Deposito niet valt onder het Depositogarantiestelsel van De Nederlandsche Bank. Dit betekent dat wanneer sprake is van een noodregeling of van een faillissement van DSB Bank, u voor dit product niet kunt terugvallen op het Depositogarantiestelsel.

http://www.dsbbank.nl/sparen/achtergesteld-deposito/

[Naam]

Well easy really, they have less money so they need ours before they can lend out again. So they offer a better deal. Economics 101.

when something appears to good to be true... it most probably is if deposits yielding the offered rates were covered by the Dutch Central Bank these small banks would have been already flooded with money and my €UR cash would get ready to move to the Netherlands where it yields more than double. case closed, next one please

[Khun Jean]

Naam, i appreciate the research done. As always higher rates have more risks. If not then we all would be rich, bu then again if everybody is rich then some have to be more rich.

Deposits ARE guaranteed. But not the 'achtergestelde'. With DSB the best interest is on those, but for instance Credit Europe Bank does have guarantees on their normal deposits in the amount of 100.000 euro. 5.75% for a 2 year deposit is not bad if you really want to have zero risk. Up to the individual if he wants to invest and take a small or big risk or not.

So instead of shooting everything down, which by the way is good, what is your suggestion for a good investment.

[LaoPo]

Naam, i appreciate the research done. As always higher rates have more risks. If not then we all would be rich, bu then again if everybody is rich then some have to be more rich.

Deposits ARE guaranteed. But not the 'achtergestelde'. With DSB the best interest is on those, but for instance Credit Europe Bank does have guarantees on their normal deposits in the amount of 100.000 euro. 5.75% for a 2 year deposit is not bad if you really want to have zero risk. Up to the individual if he wants to invest and take a small or big risk or not.

So instead of shooting everything down, which by the way is good, what is your suggestion for a good investment.

1. NOBODY in The Netherlands ever heard about Credit Europe Bank which are ''officed'' in an office building in a part of Amsterdam-Zuid Oost and Dutch people (as you are) know what I'm talking about.

WHO is behind this bank ? Well, they changed their name from Finansbank (Holland) N.V. to the present name in 2007. But if you really want to study the complicated structure of the bank...go ahead and be my guest: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finansbank.

The point is that the Turkish mother behind the bank is having problems back in Turkey and Turkey itself is on the edge of bankruptcy and total collapse. Go figure if you want to deposit your hard cash which such banks.

The whole point Khun Jean is, that one shouldn't just post a link with luring high interest percentages but study and do some homework first instead of telling people one can get high percentages in Holland.

2. And, about guarantees; The Dutch government just paid 1.8 Billion Euro back to (stupid) depositors with the Icebank Debacle....

The government (any government in fact) can/may change -again- the guarantee they have now (100K €) overnight the same as they changed (to calm the public) it from 20K to 100K but than in a reverse way !

Do you really believe a(ny) government will continue to save the @rses of dumb people who invest their hard earned money in some vague FOREIGN bank, just to get some bloody 0,5% or 1% more ? In other words: instead of getting YOUR € 5.750 they would only get 4.750 on an investment of (guaranteed) 100,000. BUT...the moment they deposited their money with ICESAVE they did NOT know the guarantee was to be raised by the government from 20K to 100K !!! These investors were just lucky b@stards but I wouldn't have had any mercy with them if they would have lost their money. GREED is the word !

I'd say, let them bleed for their own stupidity !

3. Further: The only way you can reach the bank is by email or a paid 0900 number (0.10 € cents/minute) and if I dislike something it's a bloody bank for which I have to pay to reach them, IF I can, in times of emergency, like the Icebank collapse...

LaoPo

Edited January 2, 2009 by LaoPo

[Naam]

Deposits ARE guaranteed. But not the 'achtergestelde'. With DSB the best interest is on those, but for instance Credit Europe Bank does have guarantees on their normal deposits in the amount of 100.000 euro. 5.75% for a 2 year deposit is not bad if you really want to have zero risk. Up to the individual if he wants to invest and take a small or big risk or not.

So instead of shooting everything down, which by the way is good, what is your suggestion for a good investment.

i am not sure whether 5.75% for 2 years is a wise investment as (in my personal opinion) any cash fixed beyond one year is risky. reason: sooner or later the huge amounts of liquidity made available by governments or central banks point ultimately to inflation and higher market rates. this assumption is not made by "goldbugs" only and i tend to agree.

but i have to agree that under prevailing circumstances the 5.75% for 2 years (IF) guaranteed look quite inviting.

it is useless to discuss my personal suggestions for "good" investments here in Thaivisa for several reasons.

-most of the participants with experience and a good financial background knowledge are focussed on specific assets (stocks, gold, bonds, cash) and that applies to me too.

-it would be unreasonable to advise those without experience (e.g. who ask questions like "what to do with £100k?") to go my way and invest in sovereign as well as corporate bonds which (considered their rating and outlook) provide an acceptable risk/reward ratio. moreover, considerably higher amounts are required to achieve a diversified portfolio and therefore lowering -respectively spreading- the risks because the majority of interesting bonds is only available in minimum trading batches of €UR 50k and USD 100k. that means for a diversified portfolio denominated in €UR a total net of €1 million and in USD 2 million is required. the afore-mentioned amounts are based on the assumption that no single position in the portfolio exceeds 5%.

[expatgaz]

Some very interesting replies.

The 100k question was meant to be a little hyperthetical but still serious.Fishing if you like for what people where upto with their cash.

Replies ranged from informative to quite ridiculous.With the usual splattering of total stupidity.A typical forum result if you like !!

Thanks,

EPG.

[Naam]

So Namm, you cant give ideas for us "little fish" with 100K to invest in? What if you were to be starting out right now with the said amount, what would you intellect tell you to do to get the best return with the least risk? It is true, the smaller the portfolio, the more difficult it is to make it grow. Money does beget money.

VIBE,

if you want to invest €100k some dutch banks look indeed interesting. but as i said the attached conditions have to taken into consideration. published yield only does not count!

based on what Khun Jean mentioned i did a little more research on Credit Europe Bank N.V. which also has a branch in Germany (website in my mother tongue) and offers in Germany the same conditions which prevail in the Netherlands.

results:

-the dutch guarantee is valid till oct 7, 2009 = another 9 months. therefore investing in any longer maturities remains a risk.

-the guarantee is limited to €100k

http://www.crediteurope.de/fb/sites/de/de/...bpartnerid=YYYY

basically i'd say that for the inexperienced investor a fixed deposit which is fully guaranteed for the period till maturity is the way to go. the member who opened this thread seems to fall into that category, otherwise he wouldn't have asked the question. BUT he's a Britisher, wants to invest £100k and i have strong doubts whether he'd risk converting his "precious" pounds into another currency.

for those who are willing to inform themselves and to follow their portfolio, act if necessary and are willing to invest in USD and €UR my "advice" (i hate to give financial advice!) is to buy a bunch of emerging markets sovereign debtors (countries like Brazil, Russia, Philippines, etc.) where there is still a wide range of bonds available which are traded in minimum batches of 1k. with an even mix an average yield of 8-9% in USD as well as in €UR can be achieved. unfortunately there is no selection for the Pound lovers.