Gold Up In 2008 , Where To In 2009 ?

[flying]

Government bonds are also not what they used to be:

German bond sale's fate signal trouble ahead

A German sovereign bond auction failed on Wednesday as investors shunned one of the most liquid and safe assets in the world in a warning for governments seeking to raise record amounts of debt to stimulate slowing economies.

Boy that is a mouthful eh? Like a shot across the bow of Governments

The more I read the more I feel like the financial world is another form of religion.

It is all based on faith....now that the cornerstones are crumbling it is getting shaken pretty good. Will be a interesting year for sure.

[Khun Jean]

Maybe it ends in something like Zardoz. Weapons out, grains in.

[Naam]

Government bonds are also not what they used to be:

German bond sale's fate signal trouble ahead

talk without taking the circumstances into consideration is cheap. government bonds of any industrialised country yield presently a pittance, less than cash and definitely less than prevailing inflation rates. investors without valid reasons to buy these bonds prefer of course higher yielding and much more liquid alternatives like cash. EUR one year fixed maturity yields ~3.25% (cash hungry banks provide a much higher yield but the amounts are limited), a german government bond with a maturity of one year yields 1.36%, i.e. 58% less than cash.

look at the rates of government bonds and weep!

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/germany.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/uk.html

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/japan.html

next please

p.s. calculated from bottom to top then €-cash yields 139% more than the government bond with the same maturity.

Edited January 11, 2009 by Naam

[Khun Jean]

meaning.....

That the government bonds are not attractive and can not be sold. Where do they go next to find money?

next!

Edited January 11, 2009 by Khun Jean

[Naam]

China has bought in the first 10 months of 2008 more UST than in any year before and that applies to USD too. in fact the volume of both is not going up linear but nearly exponentially as the figures prove:

First one to a funeral gets the most donuts yet again

You know your my favorite paper bug right? Well you & Vegas Vic

China Losing Taste for Debt From U.S.

Published: January 7, 2009

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/08/business.../08yuan.html?em

i don't believe what the NY Times writes but report facts (without wild and far fetched claims) e.g. from the IMF and the U.S. Treasury. needless to advise me that they are all goddàmn liars

i also don't know why anybody should be called a "paper bug" who is invested in beef, chicken, cocoa, crude oil, natural gas, shipping, insurances, steel and a dozen more commodities by holding bonds of corporates which produce these commodities.

[Naam]

meaning.....

1. That the government bonds are not attractive and can not be sold.

2. Where do they go next to find money?

next!

i couldn't care less where they find the money. but if they want my money they have to offer better conditions. the days when they got my money free by taxing my income are over since the date i live in Thailand

[flying]

i also don't know why anybody should be called a "paper bug" who is invested in beef, chicken, cocoa, crude oil, natural gas, shipping, insurances, steel and a dozen more commodities by holding bonds of corporates which produce these commodities.

Just joking my friend I was joking on how you & vic always call me a gold bug if I post any info on gold.

This must be last nerve day here on TV

Another thread I posted a pic of sheep watching tv & someone there thought I was also teasing.

[Naam]

meaning.....

1. That the government bonds are not attractive and can not be sold.

2. Where do they go next to find money?

next!

i couldn't care less where they find the money. but if they want my money they have to offer better conditions. the days when they got my money free by taxing my income are over since the date i live in Thailand

[flying]

double post & dont know why

Same for you eh Naam?

Must be a tear in the time fabric again....DOH!!!

Edited January 11, 2009 by flying

[Naam]

meaning.....

1. That the government bonds are not attractive and can not be sold.

2. Where do they go next to find money?

next!

i couldn't care less where they find the money. but if they want my money they have to offer better conditions. the days when they got my money free by taxing my income are over since the date i live in Thailand

[Naam]

i also don't know why anybody should be called a "paper bug" who is invested in beef, chicken, cocoa, crude oil, natural gas, shipping, insurances, steel and a dozen more commodities by holding bonds of corporates which produce these commodities.

Just joking my friend I was joking on how you & vic always call me a gold bug if I post any info on gold.

no investor should be called a goldbug who tries to play it safe by holding a certain percentage of his net worth in gold. in my view "goldbugs" are those who (lying on their mattresses which are protected by rubber mats from the results of their wet dreams) produce expectations for the future which belong to Captain Picard and his crew (in which i faithfully served many years ) some of their expectations seem to be based on logical reasons. but at a closer look there's always the "IF", whether attached or just assumed

p.s. i don't share most of Vegas Vic's optimistic predictions but take (every day several times) a sober look at my holdings and the world markets, perhaps shuffle a bit (sometimes a bit more) around in order to earn a buck or two to make ends meet. for a poor retiree like me, living in Thailand, life is difficult! the price of canned dog food went up too. the end of fiat money is near and soon perhaps the Mrs has to pay with bullion for dog food

[flying]

i also don't know why anybody should be called a "paper bug" who is invested in beef, chicken, cocoa, crude oil, natural gas, shipping, insurances, steel and a dozen more commodities by holding bonds of corporates which produce these commodities.

Just joking my friend I was joking on how you & vic always call me a gold bug if I post any info on gold.

no investor should be called a goldbug who tries to play it safe by holding a certain percentage of his net worth in gold. in my view "goldbugs" are those who (lying on their mattresses which are protected by rubber mats from the results of their wet dreams) produce expectations for the future which belong to Captain Picard and his crew (in which i faithfully served many years ) some of their expectations seem to be based on logical reasons. but at a closer look there's always the "IF", whether attached or just assumed

p.s. i don't share most of Vegas Vic's optimistic predictions but take (every day several times) a sober look at my holdings and the world markets, perhaps shuffle a bit (sometimes a bit more) around in order to earn a buck or two to make ends meet. for a poor retiree like me, living in Thailand, life is difficult! the price of canned dog food went up too. the end of fiat money is near and soon perhaps the Mrs has to pay with bullion for dog food

Well then I am not gold bug for sure.

Somehow I do not think your a poor retiree in the same way that I will be someday But in any case count your blessings as your a lucky man to be done with most of it & kicking back over there.

I so want to get out of here & we are thinking of just leaving in any case.

All I see in my line is loss of income for the next ???

We were not ready to retire back there by any means but......... Then again we still have the condo & a beauty shop there so maybe who knows.......

As for the dog food Let the puppy have the table scraps I bet he can eat spicy just fine.

[Khun Jean]

This goldbug is expecting a day that 'too big to fail' will change into 'too large to save'.

The signs are already here, bonds are just one of those. Having a little gold (around 40% now) is a safety net for when the inevitable will happen. Investing in fiat money and having returns in fiat money works until it, ... well... not works anymore. It is just that most people think that fiat money will always work, history does not agree.

When you think there will be a change in trust in fiat money it is the same as when you think a company will prosper. The first changes fiat into something 'real', the second buys stocks. In that case when you buy something 'real' or something other than fiat money it is also an investment. One that can pay a pretty good profit, or one that does not when the change not happens in ones time frame.

At one time my gold has to be sold, at that moment the profit or loss will be known, until then it is as good a guess as any other.

[Naam]

As for the dog food Let the puppy have the table scraps I bet he can eat spicy just fine.

that's what he prefers over dog food! chili shrimps, hot pickled gherkins and sausage with horseraddish mustard are his favourites

[Naam]

Having a little gold (around 40% now) is a safety net for when the inevitable will happen. Investing in fiat money and having returns in fiat money works until it, ... well... not works anymore. It is just that most people think that fiat money will always work, history does not agree.

40% gold and the other 60% in what assuming that fiat money will be worthless? how long will the 40% gold last to cover the living expenses of the average investor?

[flying]

As for the dog food Let the puppy have the table scraps I bet he can eat spicy just fine.

that's what he prefers over dog food! chili shrimps, hot pickled gherkins and sausage with horseraddish mustard are his favourites

Who wouldn't !

hot pickled gherkins and sausage with horseraddish mustard

Sounds good to me

I have to pass on the shrimp though

I stay away from shell fish.... Like jacques cousteau said

[flying]

I think we can say gold up in 09 At least at the US Mint

Man check out the new premiums from the US Mint crazy

http://cryptome.info/0001/mint010609.htm

I might be reading it wrong but looks like they are setting a flat 225-250 premium?

For instance look at gold at 850....then a gold eagle is $1078?

It States the info came from here...

From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]

It looks official but I have no proof & this is the internet

I do see on the US Mint site you can order now for delivery on 1/21/09 at $974 based on todays price that is roughly 117 over spot. sheesh

Just a follow up.............I just saw a post on another forum say there is none available at the US Mint site http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/store...identifier=1000

Sure enough I looked & correct.

When I wrote this you could as I said pre order.

It will be interesting to see if tomorrow the new prices go into effect like the price sheet said. 1/12/09

http://cryptome.info/0001/mint010609.htm

Effective January 12, 2009, the United States Mint will commence

selling numismatic products containing American Eagle Gold and Platinum

Coins, American Buffalo Gold Coins, First Spouse Gold Coins, and the

2009 United States Mint Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin at

prices established by using the new pricing methodology. Specifically,

each Wednesday, the United States Mint will apply the average London

Fix for platinum and gold (average of the London Fix prices covering

the previous Thursday A.M. Fix through the Wednesday A.M. Fix) to the

below pricing schedules. Price adjustments as a result of this process,

if any, will be effective at 10 a.m. E.S.T. on the immediately

following Thursday.

[Nouf]

I think we can say gold up in 09 At least at the US Mint

Man check out the new premiums from the US Mint crazy

http://cryptome.info/0001/mint010609.htm

I might be reading it wrong but looks like they are setting a flat 225-250 premium?

For instance look at gold at 850....then a gold eagle is $1078?

It States the info came from here...

From the Federal Register Online via GPO Access [wais.access.gpo.gov]

It looks official but I have no proof & this is the internet

I do see on the US Mint site you can order now for delivery on 1/21/09 at $974 based on todays price that is roughly 117 over spot. sheesh

Just a follow up.............I just saw a post on another forum say there is none available at the US Mint site http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/store...identifier=1000

Sure enough I looked & correct.

When I wrote this you could as I said pre order.

It will be interesting to see if tomorrow the new prices go into effect like the price sheet said. 1/12/09

http://cryptome.info/0001/mint010609.htm

Effective January 12, 2009, the United States Mint will commence

selling numismatic products containing American Eagle Gold and Platinum

Coins, American Buffalo Gold Coins, First Spouse Gold Coins, and the

2009 United States Mint Ultra High Relief Double Eagle Gold Coin at

prices established by using the new pricing methodology. Specifically,

each Wednesday, the United States Mint will apply the average London

Fix for platinum and gold (average of the London Fix prices covering

the previous Thursday A.M. Fix through the Wednesday A.M. Fix) to the

below pricing schedules. Price adjustments as a result of this process,

if any, will be effective at 10 a.m. E.S.T. on the immediately

following Thursday.

Why anyone pays these mark ups for these coins is beyond me, if one wants to hold physical then you can buy gold far cheaper than that, it seems the media and fear factor is playing right into Big monies hands here and they are making a killing,

Even the Gold bugs Guru Schiff is saying the mark up is ridiculous between the physical and coins it seems many want to pay a pemimum and are IMO paying way over the odds when i can buy gold for less than the E-bay and auction sites.

still i would rather wanna buy gold in the $600-$650 area my work still indicates that unless gold gets back above $900 and uses that as support, and then back above $950, Gold still looks at potemtial downside and if the US$ does strengthen in the mean time from deflationary forces then there could be a great oppertunity to buy gold alot lower from here

Not do what the joe public always do buy at the top of rallies and sell at the bottoms like all the sheeple do.

if you follow the Media be prepared to get the rug pulled from underneath you

Gold`s strength needs to show its hands soon and get back above $900 and stay there it looks to me, its struggling to get back above this #

With all the buying being reported in the media why isnt gold above $900??????

Edited January 12, 2009 by Nouf

[CPH]

Normally gold is a hedge against inflation. The nex year or two i think will be deflationary with inflation rates at maybe - 1 or -2 percent.

[Nouf]

WOW crazy spike lower on gold, and also broke the prior swing low of $829 now you see the real strength of Gold and if buyers really want to buy it, or we open the door to lower prices, it could just be a trap door for the bears.

crazy $30 swing bulls need back above the $830 level or i suspect sellers will hit the tape here

[lannarebirth]

WOW crazy spike lower on gold, and also broke the prior swing low of $829 now you see the real strength of Gold and if buyers really want to buy it, or we open the door to lower prices, it could just be a trap door for the bears.

crazy $30 swing bulls need back above the $830 level or i suspect sellers will hit the tape here

Possibly something to do with this note I got last week:

FT Alphaville: Beware, commodity index rebalancing ahead

¡°The major commodity indices rebalance their respective asset

weightings once a year (or occasionally more) - and with that comes a

mass dose of buying and selling. The 2009 rebalancing is expected to

start sometime this week.

Luckily, JP Morgan has produced its best guess of how the 2009

reweightings of the DJ AIGCI and the S&P GSCI indices will impact the

market.

The weightings for both indices are released ahead of time, but begin

to kick in the first few working days of the new year. In the case of

the DJ-AIGCI - which JP Morgan estimates has $25 billion in funds

tracking it - the new weightings come into force during the roll

period that begins January 9. The S&P GSCI index weightings kick-in

after its January roll which commences January 8. JP Morgan estimates

about $50 billion of investment into that index.

JP Morgan see the most significant change coming in the DJ-AIGCI

rebalance. Here the market weight of crude oil is expected to increase

from 9.6% to 13.8%, gold from 10.8% to 7.9%, copper (COMEX) from 4.5%

to 7.3%, live cattle from 6.4% to 4.3% and sugar from 4.7% to 3.0%.

Meanwhile, S&P GSCI crude oil weight will go from 32% to 33.8%¡±.

Source: Izabella Kaminska, FT Alphaville, January 5, 2009.

Traders will have frontrun it of course.

[Nouf]

That or something just blew up, and someone went to the market and dumped, however it looks like they ran it up then dumped it

Unless the boys get this back above $830 i see downside here

it sure knows this area as is finding it hard to get back above it

i have closed 1/2 of my position, just in case they run this back up towards $850 ish

Insane action

[Khun Jean]

Good, i can buy some more for a cheaper price. The 20$ ups and downs are already expected as many have to close their positions and there is a lot of shorting (to manipulate the price).

When the shorters have to deliver then you can see it go up a lot. Takes a while though.

[lannarebirth]

That or something just blew up, and someone went to the market and dumped, however it looks like they ran it up then dumped it

Unless the boys get this back above $830 i see downside here

it sure knows this area as is finding it hard to get back above it

i have closed 1/2 of my position, just in case they run this back up towards $850 ish

Insane action

[Nouf]

Good, i can buy some more for a cheaper price. The 20$ ups and downs are already expected as many have to close their positions and there is a lot of shorting (to manipulate the price).

When the shorters have to deliver then you can see it go up a lot. Takes a while though.

Sure manipulation is rife in all sectors but thats what makes a market, if something is deemed to be expensive its the market that will decide, if gold is considered cheap at these levels then i expect buyers to step up here, as it stands buyers have failed to show up,

the bar has now been lowered $830 is your 1st step then $870 untill then i seriously cant consider gold as a buy at these levels, i would rather wait for $650 (if it happens great, if not no harm done) unless the world is falling apart

the DX is still gaining strength and you cant argue with the present facts, who knows what will happen in 6 months, maybe gold will rocket to $2000 and the US$ becomes toilet paper, but is that before gold drops to lower levels??

If youre a holder of gold from alot lower levels nice one, gold has been a great trade in the past 18 months but it may still need lower to mount a decent move past a $1000, i was a holder of physical in the past but sold out 6 months ago

All i know is the gold strugged to get back above $900 (with all the so called buying it still struggled to get back above that #) as i noted earlier in this thread and it was playing around $870 when the facts are presented one has to make a calculation based upoon the evidence that evidence is still showing weakness in gold regardless of perceived strength, those are the facts at present

So i would want to be seeing gold rally above $870 then $900 and stay above $900, to feel comfortably bullish on gold, i still have 1/2 postion that i need to close but untill i see any bullish development i think will continue to hold that trade

see you at $650

As long as gold is below $870-900 i feel its a fade to lower prices

The commericials are adding to their short postions this past week so you could well be right about large holders with outstanding short positions but they have severe deep pockets and are likely to hold those positions open for a while

However you may get a decent move higher in gold in the next day or So along with oil as it appears that equities may mount a rally soon if not today tommorrow (possible obama or Opex Expiry move) so gold stocks may take gold higher along with the HUI, it seems the market is in tandem with Gold and oil as they have both dropped since the prior top and we are at a pivotal area on the SPX

Edited January 12, 2009 by Nouf

[flying]

I am glad I am a not a trader

You know your right Nouf about those US Mint Spreads.

I have never paid more than 60 above spot for any gold I own

The 60 being eagles & I usually pay 45-50 for Kruggs 55 for maples.

So I agree that I cannot understand who buys these but.......Like Perth They do sell out.

Very odd.

[flying]

Good, i can buy some more for a cheaper price. The 20$ ups and downs are already expected as many have to close their positions and there is a lot of shorting (to manipulate the price).

When the shorters have to deliver then you can see it go up a lot. Takes a while though.

If there was any available here today I would add.

the Obama Rally is going to make many wish they owned Gold or Yen.

Edited January 12, 2009 by flying

[lannarebirth]

One thing for investors to bear in mind is, what is an "investment" for you is "inventory" for a broker/dealer. The same relationship applies, whether it be metal coins, stocks, bonds, whatever. When the inventory gets distributed the "markdown" begins, where dealers may accumulate more inventory to sell. After the accumulation comes the markup, then the distribution. It's an ever repeating cycle. I'm not saying I know where in his cycle we are at present, but thats how it works.

[Nouf]

I am glad I am a not a trader

You know your right Nouf about those US Mint Spreads.

I have never paid more than 60 above spot for any gold I own

The 60 being eagles & I usually pay 45-50 for Kruggs 55 for maples.

So I agree that I cannot understand who buys these but.......Like Perth They do sell out.

Very odd.

like you said i dont understand why anyone would pay those mark up prices, surely coins are a speculation as whats the diffrernce??

other than paying with coins for goods (which if we ever get to to a situation where we are paying for services and goods then i think we have gone over the cliff anyhow)

i think we may have other issues like protecting your property

Anyhow if its for wealth protection against currencies and fiat currencies/inflation sure i can see the value of holding anything that rises, be it metals, oranges or tea leaves

http://www.goldmoney.com/index.php

i use these guys, and if by chance gold did see a lot lower form here i would be certainly interested in obtaining some even to hedge or as part of a portfolio diversification as and when i feel the need.

As you can see if you want to buy physical it does pay to monitor to spot prices

[flying]

like you said i dont understand why anyone would pay those mark up prices, surely coins are a speculation as whats the diffrernce??

other than paying with coins for goods (which if we ever get to to a situation where we are paying for services and goods then i think we have gone over the cliff anyhow)

i think we may have other issues like protecting your property

Anyhow if its for wealth protection against currencies and fiat currencies/inflation sure i can see the value of holding anything that rises, be it metals, oranges or tea leaves

http://www.goldmoney.com/index.php

i use these guys, and if by chance gold did see a lot lower form here i would be certainly interested in obtaining some even to hedge or as part of a portfolio diversification as and when i feel the need.

As you can see if you want to buy physical it does pay to monitor to spot prices

Oh boy I could never not hold what I own for metals...Same for the protecting my property......

I would never trust that to 911 or Police that may show up 45 minutes later

I do agree about monitoring spot in your case. Since your a trader/investor

For others like my selff of course I prefer a lower price but when I want to buy it is not always available when price reaches a point where my mind says buy now.

Although it has gotten a bit better as I have a few more trusted sources now.