1 Gbp = 47.37 Thb And Falling

[pkrv]

There is of course an obvious point here - the thread title, and hence thread, will be short lived.

[Owain]

UK no oil no gas left, possibly 5-10 years at best that is what kept the UK going.

i know they have a defence industry. lots of imigrants financial hub in london wiped out mabye US will bail them out.

We have oil left for another 40 years actually. Where did you get your figures from?

[JimsKnight]

As someone who actually works in the North Sea I can say 100% he is talking sht.

Enough oil and gas for decades and that is the stuff we know about.

The stuff we haven't exploited yet will also be a boon. The trick is for the price of oil to shoot up to make exploration and extraction of Hydrocarbons viable

[sorensen]

As someone who actually works in the North Sea I can say 100% he is talking sht.

Enough oil and gas for decades and that is the stuff we know about.

The stuff we haven't exploited yet will also be a boon. The trick is for the price of oil to shoot up to make exploration and extraction of Hydrocarbons viable

Dude, the UK is IMPORTING both gas and oil. Find the UK production in the attached file, if you can find it, it is falling fast:

2008_august_oilwatch_monthly.pdf

[SeanPhuket]

Be prepared for the Pound to drop further, when the FTSE's engineered collapse happens in June that is Game, Set and Match I am affraid.

[Owain]

Dude, the UK is IMPORTING both gas and oil. Find the UK production in the attached file, if you can find it, it is falling fast:

It is actually going back up in the December 08 report. Does not mean much anyway as if you look at the graphs it goes up and down all the time. It was up mid 08 but has dropped down towards the end of the year as less people needed to buy oil. You know economic crisis and all that.

Edited January 20, 2009 by Owain

[mommysboy]

Be prepared for the Pound to drop further, when the FTSE's engineered collapse happens in June that is Game, Set and Match I am affraid.

So, do you think all the shops and banks will close down? Perhaps parity with the bt? What do you mean all over?

When a currency devalues it's exports and investment opportunities actually become much more attractive. Further UK can honour any debts so there is no question about the integrity of the system, any more than US.

It's a very serious world situation though.

Pound is forecast to hit 130 maybe, so may go sub 46bt. That's incredible! a disaster for Brits relying on UK funds, and very bad for the Thai tourist industry.

UK is finished! what a crazy statement!

[flying]

I saw a quote today from another forum. This was from a economic cyclist type ....

For what its worth his claim was that both the Euro & the GBP were in big trouble & their banks would run into problems this year due to East Europe Loans. He also said Italy, Greece & Spain are wasted & The Euro could be seeing an end this year as a currency when German taxpayers are going to be settled with the bill.

Who knows if any of it is anything more than speculation.

[Goshawk]

UK is finished! what a crazy statement!

maybe not so crazy a statement....

also, read this same guys' analysis from his blog here

then take a look at this other blogger's read of the situation..

would seem the UK is heading down a deathly pit..

[mazo]

Going down the pan

Percentage difference between minimum and maximum exchange rates above = 24.46%

Average bank exchange rate from data above: 1 GBP = 47.2484423 THB

[PhilHarries]

Dude, the UK is IMPORTING both gas and oil. Find the UK production in the attached file, if you can find it, it is falling fast:

The UK always has imported oil (particularly) and gas even through the North Sea boom years. Reason being, for oil anyway, is that the refineries, previously configured for Arabian crudes, are running on a blend of N. Sea and others.

I saw a quote today from another forum. This was from a economic cyclist type ....

For what its worth his claim was that both the Euro & the GBP were in big trouble & their banks would run into problems this year due to East Europe Loans. He also said Italy, Greece & Spain are wasted & The Euro could be seeing an end this year as a currency when German taxpayers are going to be settled with the bill.

Who knows if any of it is anything more than speculation.

Well I read another piece a while back saying that the UK financial institutions had little or no exposure to East European debt but had all their eggs in places like Viet Nam.

Bottom line is there are more and more financial "experts" crawling up out of the sewers knowing more and more about less and less. Sooner or later we will be overrun by these parasites everyone of which knows absolutely everything about absolutely nothing.

[Naam]

Going down the pan

Percentage difference between minimum and maximum exchange rates above = 24.46%

Average bank exchange rate from data above: 1 GBP = 47.2484423 THB

please explain

[skipvice]

Dude, the UK is IMPORTING both gas and oil. Find the UK production in the attached file, if you can find it, it is falling fast:

The UK always has imported oil (particularly) and gas even through the North Sea boom years. Reason being, for oil anyway, is that the refineries, previously configured for Arabian crudes, are running on a blend of N. Sea and others.

I saw a quote today from another forum. This was from a economic cyclist type ....

For what its worth his claim was that both the Euro & the GBP were in big trouble & their banks would run into problems this year due to East Europe Loans. He also said Italy, Greece & Spain are wasted & The Euro could be seeing an end this year as a currency when German taxpayers are going to be settled with the bill.

Who knows if any of it is anything more than speculation.

Well I read another piece a while back saying that the UK financial institutions had little or no exposure to East European debt but had all their eggs in places like Viet Nam.

Bottom line is there are more and more financial "experts" crawling up out of the sewers knowing more and more about less and less. Sooner or later we will be overrun by these parasites everyone of which knows absolutely everything about absolutely nothing.

Kinda like this forum

[jackr]

UK no oil no gas left, possibly 5-10 years at best that is what kept the UK going.

i know they have a defence industry. lots of imigrants financial hub in london wiped out mabye US will bail them out.

Absolutely shed loads of gas down the east coast.

Dude, the UK is IMPORTING both gas and oil. Find the UK production in the attached file, if you can find it, it is falling fast:

They've been doing it for ages as it's less hassle and cost than pulling it out the seabed

---

All this doom 'n gloom about the UK going down... it's one of the world's richest nations with bags of wherewithal that will always bounce back. More than can be said for those little countries that have had their hand out for years scrounging from the big euro 4, then claiming to be an economic success

[Nouf]

If the UK Governement dont stop the games its been playing you are going to have a serious dis-location in the FX markets, yesterdays move is just a scratch on what i would expect a 500 pip move is going to be a walk in the park, if FX Markets, really start selling the GBP you could see a 1500 pip day move

The UK government has just pledged to pretty much a open-ended cheque on the back of the tax payer, the liabilties of the banks is an open ended pit and it will continue for the foreseeable future, there is simply is no end to the bank liabilties and he will not let them fail

The bank capital ratios are zeros, the banks are bankrupt ( in fact the whole system is bankrupt)

Hence Los has proably a more stronger banking system presently

I am amazed that there is not a revolt and the public gone ape, (they could learn a few things from the thai potesters) only when the worst happens i guess you will see riots

it would not surprise me to see party with the $US so that will probaly put the Thai baht around maybe 30-35 baht to the £

Already the gilt market is getting wind of this, as the market yesterday shown what they think of Gordon Browns plan,

any UK Ex-pats living in Thailand seriously need to start looking at other forms of income to make up the short fall, as i expect it to get worse.

Gordon is turning on the presses as a Keynesian at heart,

he is screwed which ever way he turns, if he withdraws liquidity he craters the economy, if he adds liquidity the Bond market gives him the Finger and capital flight leaves the country

Think Iceland then you know the potential he is staring at,

Think yourself lucky you are not living there (if you are your fu_cked)

so if you have not planned for a reduction in living costs i strongly suggest you get your calculaters out and start adjusting

The same i suspect will happen with the Euro, as the European banks had the same sort of levergae tiers, it would not shock me to see 1.10 for the Euro against the $, i just think the UK is the 1st of the bigger economies to start to feel the pain 1st,,

The UK and European banks have real problems, and alot of the bank holdings like RBS and Barclays have alot of $ denominated debt, hence the $ strength you see at the moment and weakness in all other currencies

The european nations will likely see problems this year towards the mid-latter half this year, or maybe sooner,

Edited January 21, 2009 by Nouf

[imaneggspurt]

Worse today, 46.08

[sleepyjohn]

the liabilties of the banks is an open ended pit and it will continue for the foreseeable future, there is simply is no end to the bank liabilties and he will not let them fail

As a non-economist I would have expected the banks' liabilities to be finite and limited.

Perhaps you could explain to me why there is "no end" to them.

The bank capital ratios are zeros, the banks are bankrupt ( in fact the whole system is bankrupt)

Last time i spoke to my bank they assured me their Tier 1 was very good.

Do you have a source you could reference to?

Thankyou John

ps: If it wouldn't cause suffering for account holders nothing would please me more than to see NatWest out of business. In the early nineties they did that trick of regularly reducing the interest on a "high interest" account until it was all but nothing. Of course all the poor old grannies (and me) never bothered to check the rates, we all thought we were on high interest. Each year they would start another high interest account with a different name thus enabling them to keep drawing more suckers into the scam. Then those accounts rates would drop. It went on for years. This was a planned fraudulent strategy there was no excuse. Cost me about 2000GBP.

Edited January 21, 2009 by sleepyjohn

[Maigo6]

Pound note in Bangkok Bank = 47.58.

http://www.bangkokbank.com/Bangkok+Bank/Pe...tes/default.htm

Edited January 21, 2009 by Maigo6

[Nouf]

the liabilties of the banks is an open ended pit and it will continue for the foreseeable future, there is simply is no end to the bank liabilties and he will not let them fail

As a non-economist I would have expected the banks' liabilities to be finite and limited.

Perhaps you could explain to me why there is "no end" to them.

The bank capital ratios are zeros, the banks are bankrupt ( in fact the whole system is bankrupt)

Last time i spoke to my bank they assured me their Tier 1 was very good.

Do you have a source you could reference to?

Thankyou John

It really depends on the actual bank, ie use RBS as an example, their exposure to the loans they have made make them technically endless they dont know the ending value as the book value of the loans as they are either defaulting or the assets are drastically dropping lower its only when your at the bottom do you know, so because they cant actually state the actual toxic value as its an open ended pit and black hole

Plus they took on ABN Ambro debts as well

Its because of the de-leveraging process and destruction its nigh on impossible to calculate, hence why you see the banks keep coming back to the market for handouts, only the private sector has given them the finger

The banks that are failing are the highly leveraged banks of 30:1 or some as even 40:1 the europeans leverage limits were very high, in some banks, hence why you see the continued writedowns as the credit deflation continues

Its the trust thats loss, as we simply dont not know what likely to be the final amount written off as we continue on this path of destruction as deflation takes hold

one bank tells you something next they say they got their figures are wrong, or are simply not telling the truth i suspect the latter of them not telling the truth, because of the fallout, its makes no difference as the market will force the truth out anyhow only it causes more pain and takes time

Again depending on the individual bank, but in general the most of the major banks worldwide are deemed to be bankrupt (i would argue, most of the actual global system is technically bankrupt on a mark to market basis) certainly the US and UK, as the market is telling you they dont trust the banks as trust has now been lost you only need to look to the share values and continued writeoffs to work that out, the next step if they have not done it already is slashing of the Divi

Its the reason why the governments want the bad bank experiment, to off load the bad stuff so they can forget about it untill 10-20 years when hopefully then the asetts will of appriciated (well thats the theory) to the levels when they took them off the balanace sheets off the banks

so borrow more debt (or print) and re-start the cycle once more and then bring those bad asetts into the system or phase them in slowly, to write them down at stages, hence re-inflate the bubble, only hide the losses in a "special Aggregator bank"

its the reason why the FED and Treasury , ECB, and the UK government and other Central banks have thrown injected liquidity into the banks as the actual ratios of these major bank like Merriyl, Barclays, RBS, UBS, Deutsche, Citi, etc certainly the UK and US banks are likely zeros, the market is telling you that, as why would the governments and central banks keep throwing money into the system, (and falling dismally i might add)

Any bank that goes cap in hand to its government has major problems and there seems a few in the UK at the moment, Barclays took a right beating recently its share value got hammered so it will be interesting to see it accounts

Of course no government is going to outright tell you that the soverign of that country is bankrupot, by then its too late, but common sense and watching the FX markets tells you this, (it would cause a major run on the banking system as you need the trust) but as proved by the markets, the banks and governments tell you bull shi_t and then come back to the market looking for extra money as the debts just keep mounting due the whole credit un-winding cycle

Look to the FED and the treasury and the Bull sh_it coming from Paulson and Bernanke

noticed how very few if any of the private sector want any part of these banks??? and its only the last resort of lending ie the Tax payer that is giving them the money, if the assets were that good on these banks book then why isnt the private sector taking up these shares or putting money into the operations, those that have like the Arabs have been screwed, like the Morgan and Citi deals, throwing good money after bad and still they need the help of the US Treasury

the government is free to do what is likes when its not their money at stake, but slowly the public might be "getting it"

it would seem these sovereign nations are cluesless, and dont understand basic mathematics

Truth behold, no-ones knows the liabilties and thats the fear of the whole world wide banking system, we simply are not told the truth and with trust lost, its getting harder for anyone to believe anything the banks say now

Its why everyone is running to US treasuries as the No1 asset to store money, because if the US treasury fails then the world of fiat currency is over

The market is always right in the end and the truth will come out, i know who i am beleiving and its not the banks or governement, ill take my chances with the market

Edited January 21, 2009 by Nouf

[flying]

the government is free to do what is likes when its not their money at stake, but slowly the public might be "getting it"

it would seem these sovereign nations are cluesless, and dont understand basic mathematics

Truth behold, no-ones knows the liabilties and thats the fear of the whole world wide banking system, we simply are not told the truth and with trust lost, its getting harder for anyone to believe anything the banks say now

You know that is very true what you say about John Q Public "getting it"

More & more folks I talk to these days are talking about the same things.

Many have read & read & have more understanding than before.

Many of us myself included for many years had our noses to the grindstone.

Yes we always assumed the govt ripped us off a bit. That is what we call taxes

But we never knew the depth of their deceit or how shaky & unregulated our banking systems were.

Its why everyone is running to US treasuries as the No1 asset to store money, because if the US treasury fails then the world of fiat currency is over

IMHO

Little do they know this is exactly what they want them to do.

I do not agree that it would have to be the end of the world fiat currency or even if that would be such a bad thing at this point. I do think someone would step up.

At some point folks just say F&%^ it & move on.

I am from the US so I feel I can say this.... but we have become a bunch of fat lard butt consumers. That is all we do is consume....We consume our share & many others share & we really provide squat in return. Oh except those IOU's you mentioned everyone running towards.

We consume it all on credit. Then other producing countries like China do without to suppress their money to keep their product low enough priced to sell in Walmart here.................on credit.

At some point I just think they & others will wake up to the fact that we are more broke than they are & to top it off we have nothing to even barter with because we make squat we just consume.

Edited January 21, 2009 by flying

[skybluestu]

Pound note in Bangkok Bank = 47.58.

http://www.bangkokbank.com/Bangkok+Bank/Pe...tes/default.htm

46.83 now, just keeps getting better!

http://www.bangkokbank.com/bangkok+bank/pe...tes/default.htm

[Bizz]

UK no oil no gas left, possibly 5-10 years at best that is what kept the UK going.

i know they have a defence industry. lots of imigrants financial hub in london wiped out mabye US will bail them out.

We have oil left for another 40 years actually. Where did you get your figures from?

Where did you get 40 years. dream on.

JIM ROGERS.

latest UK to lose its AAA credit rating.

now 46.5

Edited January 21, 2009 by Bizz

[Naam]

We have oil left for another 40 years actually

sure! and pigs will grow wings and fly.

[Owain]

Where did you get 40 years. dream on.

The North Sea has almost as much oil left as has already been extracted, a BBC Scotland investigation has been told.

Experts believe between 25 and 30 billion barrels could still be recovered over the next 40 years.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7435016.stm

Dr Richard Pike, a former oil industry consultant and now the chief executive of the Royal Society of Chemistry, said: "Rather than only getting 20 to 30 billion barrels [from the North Sea] we are probably looking at more than twice that amount."

His analysis is supported by petroleum experts who believe there are some 300 fields off the coast of Britain still to be explored and tapped properly. If energy prices continue to soar, companies will become increasingly willing to tap previously uneconomic oil fiel

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/213...0-years%27.html

North Sea oil 'will last for half a century'

Sean Poulter, Daily Mail

5 June 2008, 9:17am Vote The North Sea isn't running out of oil at all, industry analysts say.

The full extent of reserves in the sea has never been known - and it has always been a commonly-held perception that supplies will soon dry up. But latest analysis suggests there may be enough in reserve to equal all the oil recovered from under the sea since the Seventies.

Some experts believe that up to 30bn barrels are still in the ground.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/investing-and...mp;in_a_source=

[Super Hans]

The oil figures are misleading, I suspect. Isn't it likely that we've creamed off most of the cheap to mine and easy to get out stuff, and are now left with a load of difficult/expensive stuff left to drill? Falling demand/prices will mean the bulk of this stuff staying where it is.

We became net importers of gas over the last year or so.

[sanmiguel]

OK we are all in agreement the UK is in a very bad position at present, but countries in the Eurozone such as Ireland Spain Greece Italy are in far worse positions hence why their credit ratings have been lowered. The UK's AAA credit rating is not going to be lowered according to a S and P report on Skynews today, so Jim Rogers (didnt he present 3-2-1) is talking out his ass, besides Singapores wholly reliant on finance and shipping of goods..... both these industries are fcuked at the moment so should everyone jump ship from Singapore dollar???? if Jim was so clever he'd have said this 1 year ago ... the silly b(w)anker.

We have as much oil in the North sea as what we've taken out Gordon the fukwit offered companies incentives to do so a while ago, it is just this oil isnt as accessible as whats already gone, weve also enough coal to last us 500 years, which with available technology can be tuned into natural gas. ... the North Sea is also perfect to utilise for wind and wave power, as is most the British and coastline.

We've one of the best transport, medical, eduational infrastructures in the world, weve scientists coming from all corners of the world to work in the UK as its a world leader in Biotechnology, Pharmaceuticals, I.T etc....

Things may be bad for a few years but i like 99% of other Brits get paid in Pounds, our rent is paid in pounds, most the food we buy can be made and sourced in the UK i.e bread, milk, many fruits most vegtables hence supermarkets can buy it in pounds (no inflation here), drinking water is so cheap it almost free and will remain so.

Weve a race of people who as can be seen on this forum like to whinge like <deleted> anonymously and do nothing about it, but these same people are inventive, creative, well educated can think outside the box are good at making money and with the help of a government (ie the upcoming Tory one) that will lowers taxes for new industries will no doubt put the platform in place for Britain to become more productive efficient and will see the curreny rise.

Just because expats in LOS are 30% poorer then last year and cant flash the cash like before to impress the farmers girls, doesnt mean the end is nigh.

Edited January 21, 2009 by sanmiguel

[Bizz]

Goldman Sachs Versus Jim Rogers

John Carney | Jan 21, 09 12:18 PM

A day after famed investor and China bull Jim Rogers declared the UK was finished and urged investors to sell the pound, a Goldman Sachs economist shot back with an report declaring that the "likelihood of a near-term improvement in business activity suggests sterling could bounce back quite quickly. We therefore stick to our guns and remain long sterling.”

“We’re bullish the pound and gilts,” Goldman economist Thomas Stolper told Bloomberg. “The macro picture in the U.K. is not as poor as many people try to portray.”

Rogers had said “I would urge you to sell any sterling you might have. It’s finished. I hate to say it, but I would not put any money in the U.K.”

So who is right?

Where is the Black stuff gone to

As i Said dream on.

here

If Jim Rogers is wrong will he eat his hat

Edited January 21, 2009 by Bizz

[Owain]

Where is the Black stuff gone to

As i Said dream on.

Wow great site last updated in 2006.Knowledge has moved on since then. BTW We were talking about oil not gas and also gas is not the black stuff.

Edited January 21, 2009 by Owain

[Bizz]

Environmentalists and some oil experts have been predicting the demise of oil since the 1950s. A few believe that global oil production is perilously close to peaking and from then on, supplies will dwindle away to nothing.

In time-honoured tradition, however, no two experts agree about the life expectancy of the reserves off Scotland’s shores. Jeremy Leggett, chairman of Solarcentury, an energy consultancy, predicts the crunch will come as soon as 2010. Others, including Professor Peter O’Dell of Erasmus University in the Netherlands, dismiss such ominous predictions and claim that supplies of oil will flow for decades to come.

OIL

But he revealed that the study's economic modelling suggested total production, which stood at 3.35 million barrels of oil last year, could reach the industry's target of maintaining production at a level of three million barrels in 2010, perhaps reach two million barrels by 2020 and one million barrels in 2030, despite the dwindling role of production from major North Sea platforms.

Professor Kemp's findings are reported in more detail in today's Press and Journal. I posted the link earlier today on the Drumbeat open thread of our parent site; here is link again:

I too share Chris' concerns that projected decline rates in Kemp's study are unrealistically low - remember this DTI based graph which shows N Sea production being 'more or less all over' by 2020. We've already experienced oil output falling by 42% from 1999 (peak year) to 2005 and, apart from a year when decline will be temporarily arrested by commissioning of Buzzard I'd expect oil to continue declining at a fairly steep rate.

here

Edited January 21, 2009 by Bizz

[sanmiguel]

BTW We were talking about oil not gas and also gas is not the black stuff.

I thought it was about the demise of sterling but thanks for keeping us all on track.