Thai Economic Crash

[Datsun240Z]

i am also considering to burn my house down, crash the cars and kill my dog.

Before you do that, please give me a phone call !

what's your preference 240Z? burned with the house, crashed in a car or fed to death with delicacies together with my dog?

p.s. the 240Z was the most beautiful car i ever owned!

Please together with you dog then ! Yup, gotta love the first Z's. All metal, timeless sexy styling, you are actually feeling your driving.

[teletiger]

i am also considering to burn my house down, crash the cars and kill my dog.

Before you do that, please give me a phone call !

what's your preference 240Z? burned with the house, crashed in a car or fed to death with delicacies together with my dog?

p.s. the 240Z was the most beautiful car i ever owned!

I've been a Datsun fan since '79. (A 180B ) But the wheel arches on your car remind me of false eyelashes on a 60 year old whore.

Apologies for the off topic post. Had to be said though.

Regards.

[Datsun240Z]

Those are not original though, the arches. I agree don't like it though. Should be original:

[PCA]

you guys should better leave pic posting for Alex; at least he comes up with a nice pair of tits once in a while.

[teletiger]

Those are not original though, the arches. I agree don't like it though. Should be original:

'Jesus Christ'

at least Hermans' whore was a decent colour.

Regards.

[Naam]

But the wheel arches on your car remind me of false eyelashes on a 60 year old whore.

Apologies for the off topic post. Had to be said though.

i feel the same but for the record... this is not my car. i randomly selected the picture of a "Z" from the internet.

[personchester]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

YES. I don't think anyone in Thailand will have experienced anything like what is now beginning to happen, and given it's developing status there is likely to be real hardship.

As the first poster explained, Thailand is highly dependent on exports which have slumped, it was also experiencing a consumer spending boom somewhat linked to the rapidly deteriorating property market.

In truth I'm not sure things like this can be stopped, but earlier action on the bt may have mitigated effects.

As it is, fasten your safety belts.

since months, if not years, the apocalyptic riders are galloping in this forum painting horror pictures on the wall. slogans like "the pain, the suffering, hardship, beware, fasten seat belts" are used on a daily basis in connection with a (i admit highly likely) economic downturn in Thailand. i agree that might apply to expats who work or run a business here. it is also clear that the majority of expats who have forex income are suffering due to the strong Baht, but that is besides the point and has nothing to do with Thailand's economy.

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees? will expats who own property be homeless or jump from their balconies if property prices fall? if yes WHY? i have asked that question several times before but instead an answer i read the daily boring prophecies of future horror which are without being backed by conclusive reasons nothing but empty blah-blah.

The economic slump is already affecting expats who hold their savings in their home currency offshore, firstly, all western currency has declined in respect of the THB,

secondly, the interests rates offered by those offshore banks has dropped by 60%+

thirdly, any equity that expat are holding have gone down by more than 50%+

and that will heavily and permanently affect their eventual annual annuity income,

fourthly, equity holders get at present no dividend's from their companies, etc ... etc ... thus the slump has already hit those expats with offshore savings, however, expats will not be affected by any decline in the Thai economy, some might say that this would be of some benefit for them, since the THB might decline, and consumer goods prices are bound to go down and so will rental charges for accommodations, therefore, should the slump hit Thailand don't worry about yourself fellows, worry about the Thai people since the state does not have a western style welfare system, and should it come to this, one hopes that the IMF will offer aid to Thailand without the usual stringent condition, there is however a potential increase in crime and that, only that might result in expats wanting to fasten their seat belts.

[Naam]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

YES. I don't think anyone in Thailand will have experienced anything like what is now beginning to happen, and given it's developing status there is likely to be real hardship.

As the first poster explained, Thailand is highly dependent on exports which have slumped, it was also experiencing a consumer spending boom somewhat linked to the rapidly deteriorating property market.

In truth I'm not sure things like this can be stopped, but earlier action on the bt may have mitigated effects.

As it is, fasten your safety belts.

since months, if not years, the apocalyptic riders are galloping in this forum painting horror pictures on the wall. slogans like "the pain, the suffering, hardship, beware, fasten seat belts" are used on a daily basis in connection with a (i admit highly likely) economic downturn in Thailand. i agree that might apply to expats who work or run a business here. it is also clear that the majority of expats who have forex income are suffering due to the strong Baht, but that is besides the point and has nothing to do with Thailand's economy.

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees? will expats who own property be homeless or jump from their balconies if property prices fall? if yes WHY? i have asked that question several times before but instead an answer i read the daily boring prophecies of future horror which are without being backed by conclusive reasons nothing but empty blah-blah.

The economic slump is already affecting expats who hold their savings in their home currency offshore, firstly, all western currency has declined in respect of the THB,

irrelevant, nothing to do with the prophesied thai economic crash.

secondly, the interests rates offered by those offshore banks has dropped by 60%+

irrelevant, nothing to do with the prophesied thai economic crash.

thirdly, any equity that expat are holding have gone down by more than 50%+

and that will heavily and permanently affect their eventual annual annuity income,

irrelevant, nothing to do with the prophesied thai economic crash.

fourthly, equity holders get at present no dividend's from their companies, etc ... etc ... thus the slump has already hit those expats with offshore savings, however, expats will not be affected by any decline in the Thai economy, some might say that this would be of some benefit for them, since the THB might decline, and consumer goods prices are bound to go down and so will rental charges for accommodations, therefore, should the slump hit

correct

Thailand don't worry about yourself fellows, worry about the Thai people since the state does not have a western style welfare system, and should it come to this, one hopes that the IMF will offer aid to Thailand without the usual stringent condition,

no reason and no justification that the IMF steps in. the crisis is different from that in 1997

there is however a potential increase in crime and that, only that might result in expats wanting to fasten their seat belts.

possible, but remains to be seen

[bungy007]

friendly reminder: this thread is called "Thai Economic Crash" not british pensions, not NY stock exchange, not riots in Guadeloupe...

It is not easy to talk about the economy of Thailand as if it is totally isolated from the global economy. I think I was simply trying to put some global perspective on things......in the global economy and event in one part of the world can trigger an event in another. But you know that. Good luck.

When we talk about economy, what do we actually mean?

Do we mean the (now defunct) Western model of ever increasing consumption of luxury goods and services?

Or do we mean the ability of a society to function. The provision of clean water, food, transportation, housing, schooling, health care etc?

Think of economy in terms of Maslow's hierarchy of human needs. The Western example has 'self-actualisation' at the top, whereas the Eastern (poor eastern) has food, shelter, basic human needs.

Thailand may have 'come a long way' into the western model. But does it still have the society and culture to go back to a self-sufficiency economy?

I think we are beginning to see the end to the old ways - the current young generation of urbanites haven't known anything but mobile phones/cable or satelite tv/dvds/cars/fast food and international restaurants/cinemas/bakeries etc. They won't be able to return to the old ways as they have never experienced life at subsistence levels - it won't be pleasant and may be impossible for Thais to go back to their roots

[neil324]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

YES. I don't think anyone in Thailand will have experienced anything like what is now beginning to happen, and given it's developing status there is likely to be real hardship.

As the first poster explained, Thailand is highly dependent on exports which have slumped, it was also experiencing a consumer spending boom somewhat linked to the rapidly deteriorating property market.

In truth I'm not sure things like this can be stopped, but earlier action on the bt may have mitigated effects.

As it is, fasten your safety belts.

since months, if not years, the apocalyptic riders are galloping in this forum painting horror pictures on the wall. slogans like "the pain, the suffering, hardship, beware, fasten seat belts" are used on a daily basis in connection with a (i admit highly likely) economic downturn in Thailand. i agree that might apply to expats who work or run a business here. it is also clear that the majority of expats who have forex income are suffering due to the strong Baht, but that is besides the point and has nothing to do with Thailand's economy.

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees? will expats who own property be homeless or jump from their balconies if property prices fall? if yes WHY? i have asked that question several times before but instead an answer i read the daily boring prophecies of future horror which are without being backed by conclusive reasons nothing but empty blah-blah.

The economic slump is already affecting expats who hold their savings in their home currency offshore, firstly, all western currency has declined in respect of the THB,

secondly, the interests rates offered by those offshore banks has dropped by 60%+

thirdly, any equity that expat are holding have gone down by more than 50%+

and that will heavily and permanently affect their eventual annual annuity income,

fourthly, equity holders get at present no dividend's from their companies, etc ... etc ... thus the slump has already hit those expats with offshore savings, however, expats will not be affected by any decline in the Thai economy, some might say that this would be of some benefit for them, since the THB might decline, and consumer goods prices are bound to go down and so will rental charges for accommodations, therefore, should the slump hit Thailand don't worry about yourself fellows, worry about the Thai people since the state does not have a western style welfare system, and should it come to this, one hopes that the IMF will offer aid to Thailand without the usual stringent condition, there is however a potential increase in crime and that, only that might result in expats wanting to fasten their seat belts.

Has the IMF ever offered help without strings to anyone.

[teletiger]

Never. By the way, they aren't strings, they're ropes, often pre-knotted as nooses.

Mandelson thinks he's going to slink over there sometime next year and charm them. He'll be back with his arse in his begging bowl. That'll take some spinning.

Regards.

[neil324]

Never. By the way, they aren't strings, they're ropes, often pre-knotted as nooses.

Mandelson thinks he's going to slink over there sometime next year and charm them. He'll be back with his arse in his begging bowl. That'll take some spinning.

Regards.

The masters of spin will sort it no problem, make it look all peachy

Edited July 3, 2009 by neil324

[Merangue]

friendly reminder: this thread is called "Thai Economic Crash" not british pensions, not NY stock exchange, not riots in Guadeloupe...

It is not easy to talk about the economy of Thailand as if it is totally isolated from the global economy. I think I was simply trying to put some global perspective on things......in the global economy and event in one part of the world can trigger an event in another. But you know that. Good luck.

When we talk about economy, what do we actually mean?

Do we mean the (now defunct) Western model of ever increasing consumption of luxury goods and services?

Or do we mean the ability of a society to function. The provision of clean water, food, transportation, housing, schooling, health care etc?

Think of economy in terms of Maslow's hierarchy of human needs. The Western example has 'self-actualisation' at the top, whereas the Eastern (poor eastern) has food, shelter, basic human needs.

Thailand may have 'come a long way' into the western model. But does it still have the society and culture to go back to a self-sufficiency economy?

I think we are beginning to see the end to the old ways - the current young generation of urbanites haven't known anything but mobile phones/cable or satelite tv/dvds/cars/fast food and international restaurants/cinemas/bakeries etc. They won't be able to return to the old ways as they have never experienced life at subsistence levels - it won't be pleasant and may be impossible for Thais to go back to their roots

An excellent point. I think that the belief that all the Thais can return to the farms and live on subsistance farming is painting an improper picture. Too many of the younger generation and in fact many of the older generation have beither been raised in or become utterly accustomed to the above and a return to the old ways is not a realistic option for many of them.

hel_l i know plenty of families who are barely surviving at the moment WITH members of the family working away from the home and sending money back.

Pandora's box is already open.

[Naam]

i never thought that yada, yada, yada, yakety yak can be that amusing. keep up the good job boys!

[churchill]

Despite global gloom, Thailand looks poised for good recovery

LATEST data show that the final demand in the US market, which is related to Asia's exports, including those from Thailand, remains uncertain as of the end of May.

While financial conditions in the United States have improved gradually, the US market's core retail sales were weak in March and April, while the May figures were only slightly positive, according to a Citibank report.

This reflects the unsettled concerns on the prospects of wealth and future income. Yet US consumption should improve slightly in the second half of this year. A bigger, more meaningful improvement in US consumption is expected in 2010.

Inflation's momentum in most Asian economies appears to have bottomed following a sharp drop due to lower commodity prices and a rising output gap as global growth slows down dramatically. However, Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand could be the exceptions due to their remaining large output gaps and relatively weak economic momentum.

continued http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/07/11...on_30107155.php

-- The Nation 11/07/09

[churchill]

Good article -

Thailand: Coping with chaos

http://businessmirror.com.ph/home/bloomber...with-chaos.html

[badge]

The SET will follow other markets. It may even continue higher, if it does Id expect to see some resitance around 665 or 692.5.

Id make that 663 or 692.5 actually

[MAJIC]

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees?

What do you suppose is now (and has been for the past few months) happening to that income generated offshore for expat retirees in Thailand? Have you looked at savings rates in Britain or the US recently? Is there a Stock Market boom to cash in on?

Read your posts with interest,

I have a

friend who has been here since 1994 who lived through the 1997 crash in which the Thai baht exchange rate to the £ was in the 90s he has been forecasting a similar crash for the past 6 years,so far after the 2500 - 3000 deaths of the great mans purge on Drugs,The Sunami,The military coup of 3 years ogo next month,Bird flu,Swine flu,5 new prime Ministers in 2 years,countless political encounters and upheavals between the rival factions ie Red and Yellow the baht is still strong so no forecast of a crash from me,seems like Thailand is exempt from normal world Politics and effects on countries.

[badge]

Read your posts with interest,

I have a

friend who has been here since 1994 who lived through the 1997 crash in which the Thai baht exchange rate to the £ was in the 90s he has been forecasting a similar crash for the past 6 years,so far after the 2500 - 3000 deaths of the great mans purge on Drugs,The Sunami,The military coup of 3 years ogo next month,Bird flu,Swine flu,5 new prime Ministers in 2 years,countless political encounters and upheavals between the rival factions ie Red and Yellow the baht is still strong so no forecast of a crash from me,seems like Thailand is exempt from normal world Politics and effects on countries.

Political upheaval is common in Thailand, so doesnt have the same impact as it would elsewhere.

I do believe that the THB will decline eventually, but the USD needs to make a move if this is to happen. If USDTHB rallies theres scope to see it back at 45 again

[seri thai]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

If you are being analogous it's a statistical probability

Sorry to be a gloom merchant

[Abrak]

It is far more likely that Thailand will intervene to help refinance the IMF than the other way round.

Thailand has over US$100bn in reserves (probably in the top ten in the world relative to GDP). Equivalent to over double external debt, 8 months imports and 5x foreign investment in the Thai stockmarket.

The trendy debate at the moment is how countries like Thailand have contributed to the on-going crisis by building up 'excessive' reserves.

Afterall the US couldnt have created its consumer driven bubble economy unless there were fools prepared to finance it. Obviously the massive build up of external reserves artificially depressed US interest rates which encouraged excessive borrowing.

[Abrak]

BTW, while I cant get too excited about Thailand's economic fundamentals I do find it surprising that for some reason most people on TV believe its currency should/will devalue against the dollar. (I do admittedly think US fundamentals are pretty bloody awful.)

On virtually every basis, deficits, build up of forex to prevent appreciation, future sustainable growth, external debt, PPP etc, the baht would seem more likely to appreciate (despite intervention) I would have thought. On a PPP basis alone the baht is thought to be undervalued by at least 25%.

(P.S, I do get Badge's point about the technicals and can also appreciate that if Chalerm became PM then the baht may well be most valuable as wall paper. I just wonder about the economic reasons.)

[badge]

(P.S, I do get Badge's point about the technicals and can also appreciate that if Chalerm became PM then the baht may well be most valuable as wall paper. I just wonder about the economic reasons.)

I didnt comment on technicals? I also stated political risk is always 'priced in' in Thailand.

The Thai market has risen sharply from the beginning of the year, the THB has gained marginally against the USD in this period. Almost every comparable countries' equity markets and currencies have done the same.

Thailand is in no way different, its the same 'play'.

As noted previously, any decline in THB will be more a story of a strengthening USD, and its equities will move with its peers.

[badge]

some simple trendlines look interesting though

[Naam]

some simple trendlines look interesting though

that's blasphemy Badge! most Thaivisa X-perts have since long unanimously agreed that the Baht will crash, Thailand's economy will sink into an abyss, one GBP will fetch 198.75 Baht and for a hundred Dollar bill thai money changers will offer at least one of their virgin daughters (if any) in exchange

[lannarebirth]

some simple trendlines look interesting though

That one and maybe a big ol' falling wedge there too?

[badge]

that's blasphemy Badge! most Thaivisa X-perts have since long unanimously agreed that the Baht will crash, Thailand's economy will sink into an abyss, one GBP will fetch 198.75 Baht and for a hundred Dollar bill thai money changers will offer at least one of their virgin daughters (if any) in exchange

actually to me its suggests a break above the trendine and the Thaivisa X-perts will be proved right

personally i wrote several months ago I think USDTHB could test 33, before reversing back up. I've no reason to change that.

I follow the DX Index on a different thread, and expect the $ to rise from current levels. If it falls, I have 2 support levels somewhat lower.

USDTHB will continue to be dictated by the USD.

[quiksilva]

I have been doing a little research and came across a couple of stats on Bangkok based businesses which I thought you guys might be interested in.

Total number of new business

registrations

H1, 2008 =13,476 // H1, 2009 = 12,118 (YoY -10.08%)

Total number of business

closures

in H1, 2008 = 15,647 // H1, 2009 = 7,031 (

YoY -55.06%

)

Source: Business Development Department

This is also supported in my latest office market research, which shows that vacancy rates have barely moved since the beginning of the year, except when new buildings came on stream.

What this says to me is that the economic fallout has mostly effected tourism and manufacturing, whereas the commercial service sector has done a good job, so far, of battening down the hatches and weathering this storm. They may not be doing wonderfully well, but they are surviving.

[Abrak]

I didnt comment on technicals?

Sorry Badge I didnt mean to really overcredict you. What I meant to say is that you had fully justified your view with random lines (usually joined by at least two points) on a historic graph that you foresee as giving some idea as to what future direction might be. I thought this was referred as 'technicals'. Obviously such a credible sounding term for such ridiculous mumbo jumbo is rather silly.

[badge]

I didnt comment on technicals?

Sorry Badge I didnt mean to really overcredict you. What I meant to say is that you had fully justified your view with random lines (usually joined by at least two points) on a historic graph that you foresee as giving some idea as to what future direction might be. I thought this was referred as 'technicals'. Obviously such a credible sounding term for such ridiculous mumbo jumbo is rather silly.

Alas I only posted a graph with some trendlines after your initial comment. Perhaps you simply meant 'graph' instead of 'technicals', but do you want to try again without further exposing your ignorance, or can I continue to take it for granted?