Thai Economic Crash

[warlord]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

I agree in about 6 months thailand is about to experience a depression, i have been here 5 years and have seen tourisum slowly decline every year, half a dozen of my expat friends have gone home this year, most walking away from the buisness they had, another half/doz hanging on hoping to sell for a fraction of what they paid,also who is going to buy the thousands of new shophouses, flats, appartments, that are being built, they haven't sold the old ones yet.

[filingaccount]

some simple trendlines look interesting though

Is that a long term "W" coming up?

[badge]

0740 GMT [Dow Jones] Buy USD/THB spot; Thai economic recovery uncertain, political turmoil far from over.

USD/THB now at 34.04; buy, targeting rise to 34.37 (June peak). Stop-loss on daily close below 33.88 (July low).

Even with Thailand's exit from recession in 2Q, economic growth likely to remain challenging for rest of this year as government has been unable to implement some economic plans amid political horse-trading with its coalition partners.

Foreign investors will likely be less keen to hold baht ahead of next "red shirts" anti-government rally planned for this weekend for which PM Abhisit may impose national security act to declare state of emergency to allow military to play role in crowd control. All this despite Thai King calling for different factions to unite, avoid further bloodshed.

"In our view, the sustainability of the recovery remains tentative, given political uncertainty, that being a key threat to growth," says Standard Chartered

Some government-led projects have stalled due to "reluctance of government officials to push ahead with the deals for fear of prosecution if the political regime changes," says RBS. "Politics remains a major deterrent given issues related to a growing rift in the already fragmented coalition as well as the petition of Thaksin's supporters for a royal pardon," says RBS.

On charts, USD/THB seems to have found good support around 33.90, which it has not been able to break clearly in past 3 months, with repeated dollar purchases by BOT seemingly wearing down baht bulls.

"Some players are back to buying USD as they think it's better not to bet against (the central bank)," says local dealer.

(Mark Cranfield, [email protected])

Dow Jones CommentaryPlus Web site: http://www.djcommentaryplus.com/acs

[Naam]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

I agree in about 6 months thailand is about to experience a depression, i have been here 5 years and have seen tourisum slowly decline every year, half a dozen of my expat friends have gone home this year, most walking away from the buisness they had, another half/doz hanging on hoping to sell for a fraction of what they paid,also who is going to buy the thousands of new shophouses, flats, appartments, that are being built, they haven't sold the old ones yet.

most of the Farangs who came/come to Thailand to start a business were/are "poor boys". their disappearance has no impact on the thai economy. the pace of construction is indeed puzzling but nothing new. even a year or two in the aftermath of the 97 crash buildings came up as if millions were in dire need of buying them. one of the reason that construction has hardly stopped is that huge amounts of "black money" are flowing into immobile property. in the long run (looking at the last four decades) it always paid for Thais to deposit their "tax free" cash into real estate. moreover, the impact of lower tourist arrivals is quite overrated.

but "hats off" to prophets (like you) who are able to forecast a depression precisely

[Datsun240Z]

Well nobody knows the future Naam. So let's wait and see.

[Naam]

Well nobody knows the future Naam. So let's wait and see.

you mean "warlord" and "wasabi" don't know the future? if so, why would they claim they know?

[badge]

The SET will follow other markets. It may even continue higher, if it does Id expect to see some resitance around 665 or 692.5.

SET is over 692.5 now, as global equity markets have continued gaining. Next possible resistace lies around 716

[Naam]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

six months? hmmm... what's the date today?

[mommysboy]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

I agree in about 6 months thailand is about to experience a depression, i have been here 5 years and have seen tourisum slowly decline every year, half a dozen of my expat friends have gone home this year, most walking away from the buisness they had, another half/doz hanging on hoping to sell for a fraction of what they paid,also who is going to buy the thousands of new shophouses, flats, appartments, that are being built, they haven't sold the old ones yet.

most of the Farangs who came/come to Thailand to start a business were/are "poor boys". their disappearance has no impact on the thai economy. the pace of construction is indeed puzzling but nothing new. even a year or two in the aftermath of the 97 crash buildings came up as if millions were in dire need of buying them. one of the reason that construction has hardly stopped is that huge amounts of "black money" are flowing into immobile property. in the long run (looking at the last four decades) it always paid for Thais to deposit their "tax free" cash into real estate. moreover, the impact of lower tourist arrivals is quite overrated.

but "hats off" to prophets (like you) who are able to forecast a depression precisely

My guess is a very long recession/depression too at back street level.

We haven't begun to feel the full effects of the western crash yet. Thailand's main gambit has been to just sit tight and wait for the economy to turn but that isn't going to happen IMHO, simply because Thailand's economy is geared to troubled western economies. It takes a long tome for stock market crashes to reach the high street and then the back street, but that's beginning to happen now. The scale of the decline in tourism is truly shocking and no end in sight if we're honest. Modern economies can not afford to seep even 2% here and there, that's what's been happening big time. the decline in tourism alone is enough to tip Thailand in to recession. The thing is once a recession gets hold it can worsen through the multiplier effect, ie, Joe no longer has enough money to spend in Fred's restaurant, so Fred can't go to the cinema on Sunday, etc, etc.

[Chaimai]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

six months? hmmm... what's the date today?

Obviously wasabi did not read Alex Lah's charts and predictions.......

....... or, perhaps he did.

[Naam]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

you forgot to mention that the sky will be falling

Naam

i think that you are a sensible poster,but have a somewhat rosy view

I think naam has learned all he can and his mind is thus closed

could it be my closed mind that prevents me to see the Great Depression?

[Naam]

Anyone else think that the Thai economy is about to crash and burn? No exports, hardly any tourists, an over-valued currency!!! Everything that has made Thailand what it is today has come from foreign money, take that away and what are you left with!!!

YES. I don't think anyone in Thailand will have experienced anything like what is now beginning to happen, and given it's developing status there is likely to be real hardship.

As the first poster explained, Thailand is highly dependent on exports which have slumped, it was also experiencing a consumer spending boom somewhat linked to the rapidly deteriorating property market.

In truth I'm not sure things like this can be stopped, but earlier action on the bt may have mitigated effects.

As it is, fasten your safety belts.

since months, if not years, the apocalyptic riders are galloping in this forum painting horror pictures on the wall. slogans like "the pain, the suffering, hardship, beware, fasten seat belts" are used on a daily basis in connection with a (i admit highly likely) economic downturn in Thailand. i agree that might apply to expats who work or run a business here. it is also clear that the majority of expats who have forex income are suffering due to the strong Baht, but that is besides the point and has nothing to do with Thailands economy.

would anybody therefore explain why an economic slump would affect expats (who are, i assume, the majority) living on their income generated offshore? will less exports and less tourists affect the lifestyle of expat retirees? will expats who own property be homeless or jump from their balconies if property prices fall? if yes WHY? i have asked that question several times before but instead an answer i read the daily boring prophecies of future horror which are without being backed by conclusive reasons nothing but empty blah-blah.

Naam I generally agree with your postings but you've overstretched yourself here and deviated from the main point of the posting: is Thailand about to experience a major crash?

YES, it is.

when?

[Naam]

I have three mins. Will be brief. Non of the above is true. You won't say it when your footman is chewing on your liver and the under groom is using the pool for rendering human fat down. For candles, for light, the better to see what bits of you they are eating. Get real. Its the end of days. Me? I'm sitting it out in a badger hole. I'll come out around 2022 after the bodies have decayed to nothing and only the released zoo animals roam the weed filled rice fields.

= one of the most enlightening and rational postings in this thread. i still shiver and fear for my liver.

[Naam]

I do think right now is the quiet before the storm in 6 months the Great Depression will be here. Economic upheaval the likes of which Thailand has never seen. No jobs, no money coming in no savings overpriced Baht!

I agree in about 6 months thailand is about to experience a depression, i have been here 5 years and have seen tourisum slowly decline every year, half a dozen of my expat friends have gone home this year, most walking away from the buisness they had, another half/doz hanging on hoping to sell for a fraction of what they paid,also who is going to buy the thousands of new shophouses, flats, appartments, that are being built, they haven't sold the old ones yet.

so we have another 6 months "there will be adepression" period now. the first one (dated jan 23) expired. the second one has still a 5½ months validity

[Naam]

Obviously wasabi did not read Alex Lah's charts and predictions.......

....... or, perhaps he did.

[Naam]

any news about the crash?

[thaihome]

any news about the crash?

None that I have seen. Certainly the forecasted massive unemployment has not happened. What I have seen is the bottoming out and the beginning of an upward trend in exports, particularly in Thailand's biggest exports, namely electronics, causing many companies to begin hiring again.

TH

[Naam]

what about the Baht crashing which was predicted by many resident economic experts?

[Naam]

any news about the crash?

None that I have seen. Certainly the forecasted massive unemployment has not happened. What I have seen is the bottoming out and the beginning of an upward trend in exports, particularly in Thailand's biggest exports, namely electronics, causing many companies to begin hiring again.

TH

no way! dozens of resident Thaivisa experts who predicted and are still predicting a crash can't be wrong!

[mommysboy]

any news about the crash?

None that I have seen. Certainly the forecasted massive unemployment has not happened. What I have seen is the bottoming out and the beginning of an upward trend in exports, particularly in Thailand's biggest exports, namely electronics, causing many companies to begin hiring again.

TH

Does the average Thai sign on if he loses his job?

Takes ages for the effects to filter through. Ironically, as stock markets climd and big business comes out of recession unemployment climbs.

[Naam]

any news about the crash?

None that I have seen. Certainly the forecasted massive unemployment has not happened. What I have seen is the bottoming out and the beginning of an upward trend in exports, particularly in Thailand's biggest exports, namely electronics, causing many companies to begin hiring again.

Does the average Thai sign on if he loses his job?

Takes ages for the effects to filter through. Ironically, as stock markets climd and big business comes out of recession unemployment climbs.

there might be some higher unemployment. can't judge, don't have any numbers. nevertheless, whenever i cross my property line i see construction going on (as i see it in Thailand since decades), the supermarkets are crowded, small contractors are busy and make me wait instead executing orders immediately.

summary: i don't see the slightest sign of any crash but wait patiently for the apocalyptic riders and doom&gloom prophets to tell me about it. most probably i wait in vain. nearly all of them seem to have disappeared.

[mommysboy]

any news about the crash?

None that I have seen. Certainly the forecasted massive unemployment has not happened. What I have seen is the bottoming out and the beginning of an upward trend in exports, particularly in Thailand's biggest exports, namely electronics, causing many companies to begin hiring again.

Does the average Thai sign on if he loses his job?

Takes ages for the effects to filter through. Ironically, as stock markets climd and big business comes out of recession unemployment climbs.

there might be some higher unemployment. can't judge, don't have any numbers. nevertheless, whenever i cross my property line i see construction going on (as i see it in Thailand since decades), the supermarkets are crowded, small contractors are busy and make me wait instead executing orders immediately.

summary: i don't see the slightest sign of any crash but wait patiently for the apocalyptic riders and doom&gloom prophets to tell me about it. most probably i wait in vain. nearly all of them seem to have disappeared.

Yes that's the strange thing, everything seems to go on as normal - it's the same in Blighty I mean you wouldn't know there's a recession on, I think the effects are more pervasive and only reveal themselves when you look at your pension pot or the roof falls off your house, and the boss calls round to see you looking all mournfall.

[SNGLIFE]

Yes that's the strange thing, everything seems to go on as normal - it's the same in Blighty I mean you wouldn't know there's a recession on, I think the effects are more pervasive and only reveal themselves when you look at your pension pot or the roof falls off your house, and the boss calls round to see you looking all mournfall.

This is because people and the economy are able to sustain themselves on dwindling savings and lines of credit - giving the false impression that "nothing's changed". Recall that Thailand, like most Asian countries, have and use savings far more than credit. While in the US and other Western countries, the opposite is true. We will see Thailand run through its savings first and be forced to go out and get far more credit to maintain the status quo. This is happening NOW. Thaksin had it right when he paid off the IMF. The current government is currently taking on more debt and that will be this country's undoing.

One of the reasons I picked this country to live in is because there is a gold shop on every corner. Storing value in gold is much better than storing value in a bank account. Full stop.

[Abrak]

The way unemployment works in Thailand is this. If you live in a fancy condo you will notice there are 3 guards to open your gate. Now in the West you have to open the wretched thing yourself. Or when you go to the grocery counter there is someone to pack your groceries into totally unenvironmentally friendly bags carry them to your car and open the door for you. In other words there is essentially jobs for everyone at the right price.

Also everyone likes to do Thailand down but when they predict its collapse against the dollar they really are not factoring just how bad the dollar's fundamentals are, before they worry about Thailands.

Anyway havent you noticed? The stock market is up almost 100% and valet parking are now throwing back Bt100 tips in your face?

[chiang mai]

Yes that's the strange thing, everything seems to go on as normal - it's the same in Blighty I mean you wouldn't know there's a recession on, I think the effects are more pervasive and only reveal themselves when you look at your pension pot or the roof falls off your house, and the boss calls round to see you looking all mournfall.

And when you walk down the high street and see all the boarded up shop fronts, and in the queues in the Job Centers .....

But hey, "In the middle of July of next year the nation will enjoy a much needed boost as the national football side win the football world cup. This may prompt a snap general election", and then all will be better!

Edited September 28, 2009 by chiang mai

[Bengt]

Hello.........do anyone beleive that Thailand have some ecnomic crisis?...do anyone think that Thailand have to devalue their THB?

Just some wonderings.

Regards

Bengt!!

[mommysboy]

Yes that's the strange thing, everything seems to go on as normal - it's the same in Blighty I mean you wouldn't know there's a recession on, I think the effects are more pervasive and only reveal themselves when you look at your pension pot or the roof falls off your house, and the boss calls round to see you looking all mournfall.

And when you walk down the high street and see all the boarded up shop fronts, and in the queues in the Job Centers .....

But hey, "In the middle of July of next year the nation will enjoy a much needed boost as the national football side win the football world cup. This may prompt a snap general election", and then all will be better!

Actually, slight error there as the election has to be June or before. Oops. It was one small prediction amongst many but as we know you tend to miss the overall picture.

But this thread is really about Thailand, and for me it's about how difficult it is to guage what's happening in the Thai economy. I'd start at a base point of saying Thailand will post -3.2% growth this year, a meagre 1 or 2 % next year, and just 2-3% over several years as news reports indicated.

It doesn't sound like a crash, but it is one, albeit in slow motion.

[teletiger]

What a wonderfully fertile mind you have. Would you mind awfully if I use some of your postings on my roses?

Regards.

[lannarebirth]

What a wonderfully fertile mind you have. Would you mind awfully if I use some of your postings on my roses?

Regards.

[mommysboy]

What a wonderfully fertile mind you have. Would you mind awfully if I use some of your postings on my roses?

Regards.

No go right ahead, and perhaps your posts might bloom in to something more than inane one liners too. I mean who knows anything's possible in the moronosphere!