Financial Crisis

[flying]

Census Worker Claims Job Numbers Are Being Inflated

"What they do is hire you, they train you like a few weeks -- 35, 40 hours of training and give you six hours of productive work and lay you off." a former Census named "Maria" tells FOX News. "Maria" further explains they rehire you so it counts as a new job.

This is actually not new for the Feds & their jobs.

I have know folks who have worked for the National Parks for more than 10 years. They are still considered Temp workers.

The Feds may make the labor laws but they are also the best at circumnavigating them.

With these national parks what they do is make them reapply every summer. Even though it is a given they will be re-hired & as I said many work the same spot well over a decade.

Doing this has more than the one effect of looking like their hiring...It also allows them to not pay certain benefits.

Because after all they are "Temp" workers

Luckily the folks I know have spouses that work elsewhere & they get their benefits through their spouses plan.

Of course the same will be true for Census workers. No benefits because they are Temp workers.

In which case I think they should be consistent with their game & not count these as jobs at all in the job report.

Edited June 4, 2010 by flying

[Naam]

I challenge you all to describe what you think globalization is all about and how it is connected to the situation we are in now.

most of us are busy making money Alex ("in the situation we are in now") and can't afford to waste time writing academic papers.

[lannarebirth]

Warsaw had a noise problem in '39.

What's the story with the Euro? Down to 1.2152. SNBs' run out of Francs?

Regards.

The story with the Euro is that like many high fliers it just wanted to go up without building support. That breakout in 2002 really should have been retested sooner rather than later. Gold same story of course, but it is the bubble dejour so it could run a bit more before it comes all the way back. Euro currently showing positive divergances in IT time frame while Gold showing negative.

Most hard hit stuff probably bounces into 4x op ex. If it doesn't, then the sell off could be severe.

Edited June 5, 2010 by lannarebirth

[ronz28]

Citigroup's way too hot banker....

http://www.nydailynews.com/gossip/gallerie...t_citibank.html

12 pictures there to page through.

She probably caused a financial melt down or two during her employment.

[flying]

The story with the Euro is that like many high fliers it just wanted to go up without building support. That breakout in 2002 really should have been retested sooner rather than later. Gold same story of course, but it is the bubble dejour so it could run a bit more before it comes all the way back. Euro currently showing positive divergances in IT time frame while Gold showing negative.

I just dont see gold as a bubble. I am not saying that because I hold some either.

It does not exhibit bubble qualities...You do not hear taxi drivers & everyone in between talking gold.

You do not hear everyday folks saying ...I have to get some gold before TSHTF

In fact remember that deal where a guy tries to sell a gold coin to the public? It is similar....Non interest for the most part.

What we see is gold no longer acting like a commodity but instead acting like a traded currency/monetary instrument.

As for building support & destined to go all the way back.....

I have an interest in charts & cycles but I also tend to think some things like economic catastrophe is not limited by patterns nor destined to follow previous *pictures*

That said I would not be surprised to see the common low June come in

I do not think the Euro failed for that same reason....Instead the Euro was an experiment. It failed...How could it not?

It can never be equally supported & why should the strong carry the weak/lazy/non contributors?

[flying]

She probably caused a financial melt down or two during her employment.

:D She is hot

But I agree she does not seem to dress overly provocatively

[lannarebirth]

The story with the Euro is that like many high fliers it just wanted to go up without building support. That breakout in 2002 really should have been retested sooner rather than later. Gold same story of course, but it is the bubble dejour so it could run a bit more before it comes all the way back. Euro currently showing positive divergances in IT time frame while Gold showing negative.

I just dont see gold as a bubble. I am not saying that because I hold some either.

It does not exhibit bubble qualities...You do not hear taxi drivers & everyone in between talking gold.

You do not hear everyday folks saying ...I have to get some gold before TSHTF

In fact remember that deal where a guy tries to sell a gold coin to the public? It is similar....Non interest for the most part.

What we see is gold no longer acting like a commodity but instead acting like a traded currency/monetary instrument.

As for building support & destined to go all the way back.....

I have an interest in charts & cycles but I also tend to think some things like economic catastrophe is not limited by patterns nor destined to follow previous *pictures*

That said I would not be surprised to see the common low June come in

I do not think the Euro failed for that same reason....Instead the Euro was an experiment. It failed...How could it not?

It can never be equally supported & why should the strong carry the weak/lazy/non contributors?

Gold is on the cusp of a bubble. You may remember when it first made new highs in the 1200's I said if it didn't come back it would be in a bubble IMO. Bubble behaviour has to do with whether or not the chart indicates support for the pricing. It also has to do with something being fully valued or not, but that is a pretty arbitrary judgement. Gold doesn't have much support here to go significantly higher. That doesn't mean that it won't, but it means if it does it will difficult to sustain.

Non technically, I'd say that sometimes people can lose their perspective when holding assets. Maybe you could justify an ounce of Gold being infinitely more valuable than what you perceive as a worthless fiat currency, but their are other comparative valuations to be made. Here in Thailand you could buy 8 cows for the same price as an ounce of Gold. You get milk, meat, more cows from that investment. I could plant 1,000 teak trees with the same money. Of course that's not an option available to everyone. I'm just pointing out that perhaps Gold may be close to fully valued.

[Naam]

Non technically, I'd say that sometimes people can lose their perspective when holding assets. Maybe you could justify an ounce of Gold being infinitely more valuable than what you perceive as a worthless fiat currency, but their are other comparative valuations to be made. Here in Thailand you could buy 8 cows for the same price as an ounce of Gold. You get milk, meat, more cows from that investment. I could plant 1,000 teak trees with the same money. Of course that's not an option available to everyone. I'm just pointing out that perhaps Gold may be close to fully valued.

but you can't buy a bakery for 8 cows, can you?

[flying]

Gold is on the cusp of a bubble. You may remember when it first made new highs in the 1200's I said if it didn't come back it would be in a bubble IMO. Bubble behaviour has to do with whether or not the chart indicates support for the pricing. It also has to do with something being fully valued or not, but that is a pretty arbitrary judgement. Gold doesn't have much support here to go significantly higher. That doesn't mean that it won't, but it means if it does it will difficult to sustain.

Non technically, I'd say that sometimes people can lose their perspective when holding assets. Maybe you could justify an ounce of Gold being infinitely more valuable than what you perceive as a worthless fiat currency, but their are other comparative valuations to be made. Here in Thailand you could buy 8 cows for the same price as an ounce of Gold. You get milk, meat, more cows from that investment. I could plant 1,000 teak trees with the same money. Of course that's not an option available to everyone. I'm just pointing out that perhaps Gold may be close to fully valued.

Interesting perspective thanks....

I actually do not justify gold or fiat as being valuable actually.

They are just instrument that represent a storage of wealth.

But at this time I do see fiat being manipulated in ways I would have never thought possible.

Add to that the truly disgusting pig behaviors we have witnessed in the last few years tied to politics/banks/investment firms etc.

Those things have all left a very bad taste. I diversify largely because of those things. I do not need or should say do not desire much. I do not chase $$$ for any other reason than basic security/needs be met. To that end I do in fact see more value in the tangibles you mention.

As to the true value of gold per ounce in relation to what tangibles you could get I have no idea of knowing if gold is as you say close to that full value. There are just too many variables to consider. Gold is not unlimited like fiat...

In that vein how many charts do you study of things of limited quantity? What does their history say?

Edited June 5, 2010 by flying

[lannarebirth]

Non technically, I'd say that sometimes people can lose their perspective when holding assets. Maybe you could justify an ounce of Gold being infinitely more valuable than what you perceive as a worthless fiat currency, but their are other comparative valuations to be made. Here in Thailand you could buy 8 cows for the same price as an ounce of Gold. You get milk, meat, more cows from that investment. I could plant 1,000 teak trees with the same money. Of course that's not an option available to everyone. I'm just pointing out that perhaps Gold may be close to fully valued.

but you can't buy a bakery for 8 cows, can you?

Sure you can.

FEUDALISM:

You have two cows. Your lord takes some of the milk.

PURE SOCIALISM:

You have two cows. The government takes them and puts them in a barn with everyone else's cows. You have to take care of the cows. The government gives you as much milk as you need.

BUREAUCRATIC SOCIALISM:

You have two cows. The government takes them and puts them in a barn with everyone else's cows. They are cared for by ex-chicken farmers. You have to take care of the chickens the government took from the chicken farmers. The government gives you as much milk and as many eggs as the regulations say you should need.

FASCISM:

You have two cows. The government takes both, hires you to take care of them, and sells you the milk.

PURE COMMUNISM:

You have two cows. Your neighbors help you take care of them, and you all share the milk.

RUSSIAN COMMUNISM:

You have two cows. You have to take care of them, but the government takes all the milk.

DICTATORSHIP:

You have two cows. The government takes both and shoots you.

SINGAPOREAN DEMOCRACY:

You have two cows. The government fines you for keeping two unlicensed farm animals in an apartment.

MILITARISM:

You have two cows. The government takes both and drafts you.

PURE DEMOCRACY:

You have two cows. Your neighbours decide who gets the milk.

REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY:

You have two cows. Your neighbours pick someone to tell you who gets the milk.

AMERICAN DEMOCRACY:

The government promises to give you two cows if you vote for it. After the election, the president is impeached for speculating in cow futures. The press dubs the affair "Cowgate".

BRITISH DEMOCRACY:

You have two cows. You feed them sheep brains and they go mad. The government doesn't do anything.

BUREAUCRACY:

You have two cows. At first the government regulates what you can feed them and when you can milk them. Then it pays you not to milk them. After that it takes both, shoots one, milks the other and pours the milk down the drain. Then it requires you to fill out forms accounting for the missing cows.

ANARCHY:

You have two cows. You keep both cows, shoot the government agent and steal another cow.

CAPITALISM:

You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull.

HONG KONG CAPITALISM:

You have two cows. You sell three of them to your publicly-listed company, using letters of credit opened by your brother-in-law at the bank, then execute a debt/equity swap with associated general offer so that you get all four cows back, with a tax deduction for keeping five cows. The milk rights of six cows are transferred via a Panamanian intermediary to a Cayman Islands company secretly owned by the majority shareholder, who sells the rights to all seven cows' milk back to the listed company. The annual report says that the company owns eight cows, with an option on one more. Meanwhile, you kill the two cows because the fung shui is bad.

ENVIRONMENTALISM:

You have two cows. The government bans you from milking or killing them.

FEMINISM:

You have two cows. They get married and adopt a veal calf.

GOLDBUGISM;

You have two cows. You sell them to buy a 1/4 oz of Gold. You sell 1/2 the Gold and buy a Bakery: http://www.amazon.com/Playmobil-4410-Bakery/dp/B0006FNXQM and you sell the other 1/2 to buy a villa in Portofino. You demand payment in Gold for all baked goods.

TOTALITARIANISM:

You have two cows. The government takes them and denies they ever existed. Milk is banned.

POLITICAL CORRECTNESS:

You are associated with (the concept of "ownership" is a symbol of the phallocentric, warmongering, intolerant past) two differently-aged (but no less valuable to society) bovines of non-specified gender.

COUNTER CULTURE:

Wow, dude, there's like... these two cows, man. You got to have some of this milk.

SURREALISM:

You have two giraffes. The government requires you to take harmonica lessons.

Edited June 5, 2010 by lannarebirth

[midas]

Obviously all these European politicians need to come on a study tour to Thailand

because according to Abrak this kind of thing simply doesnt happen here

Hungary’s economy is in a “very grave situation” because the previous government manipulated figures and lied about the state of the economy, Orban’s spokesman Peter Szijjarto said at a press conference in Budapest today. Talk of a default is “not an exaggeration,” Szijjarto said. European equities and U.S. stock-index futures fell after the comments.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

[midas]

The story with the Euro is that like many high fliers it just wanted to go up without building support. That breakout in 2002 really should have been retested sooner rather than later. Gold same story of course, but it is the bubble dejour so it could run a bit more before it comes all the way back. Euro currently showing positive divergances in IT time frame while Gold showing negative.

I just dont see gold as a bubble. I am not saying that because I hold some either.

It does not exhibit bubble qualities...You do not hear taxi drivers & everyone in between talking gold.

You do not hear everyday folks saying ...I have to get some gold before TSHTF

In fact remember that deal where a guy tries to sell a gold coin to the public? It is similar....Non interest for the most part.

What we see is gold no longer acting like a commodity but instead acting like a traded currency/monetary instrument.

As for building support & destined to go all the way back.....

I have an interest in charts & cycles but I also tend to think some things like economic catastrophe is not limited by patterns nor destined to follow previous *pictures*

That said I would not be surprised to see the common low June come in

I do not think the Euro failed for that same reason....Instead the Euro was an experiment. It failed...How could it not?

It can never be equally supported & why should the strong carry the weak/lazy/non contributors?

Gold is on the cusp of a bubble. You may remember when it first made new highs in the 1200's I said if it didn't come back it would be in a bubble IMO. Bubble behaviour has to do with whether or not the chart indicates support for the pricing. It also has to do with something being fully valued or not, but that is a pretty arbitrary judgement. Gold doesn't have much support here to go significantly higher. That doesn't mean that it won't, but it means if it does it will difficult to sustain.

Non technically, I'd say that sometimes people can lose their perspective when holding assets. Maybe you could justify an ounce of Gold being infinitely more valuable than what you perceive as a worthless fiat currency, but their are other comparative valuations to be made. Here in Thailand you could buy 8 cows for the same price as an ounce of Gold. You get milk, meat, more cows from that investment. I could plant 1,000 teak trees with the same money. Of course that's not an option available to everyone. I'm just pointing out that perhaps Gold may be close to fully valued.

I share your view 100%

There is never any guarantee in the future that some time somewhere someone will refuse gold

and say they prefer to trade in food stuff or the way things are going in some places on the globe, even a tanker full of drinking water

[Abrak]

I share your view 100%

There is never any guarantee in the future that some time somewhere someone will refuse gold

and say they prefer to trade in food stuff or the way things are going in some places on the globe, even a tanker full of drinking water

Yes, I remember that old saying - gold is for bulls - I am buying canned goods and a shotgun.

Or more specifically..... canned goods, flash light, batteries, wind up radio, fire starter (cause you can't use a lighter to start wet wood), salt for preserving meat, lighter fluid, can opener knife, pistol and bullets (if you have one), water and water purification kit, toiletries, first aid/ med kit (band aids, ace bandages, splints, cotton swabs, rubbing alcohol/ hydrogen peroxide, CPR Rescue mask), spare clothing, hot wiring for dummies, water dish and leash for dogs (if you have one), blankets, cook ware.

(Slightly puzzled by why his dog doesnt already have a water dish?)

[midas]

I share your view 100%

There is never any guarantee in the future that some time somewhere someone will refuse gold

and say they prefer to trade in food stuff or the way things are going in some places on the globe, even a tanker full of drinking water

Yes, I remember that old saying - gold is for bulls - I am buying canned goods and a shotgun.

Or more specifically..... canned goods, flash light, batteries, wind up radio, fire starter (cause you can't use a lighter to start wet wood), salt for preserving meat, lighter fluid, can opener knife, pistol and bullets (if you have one), water and water purification kit, toiletries, first aid/ med kit (band aids, ace bandages, splints, cotton swabs, rubbing alcohol/ hydrogen peroxide, CPR Rescue mask), spare clothing, hot wiring for dummies, water dish and leash for dogs (if you have one), blankets, cook ware.

(Slightly puzzled by why his dog doesnt already have a water dish?)

dont waste your money on water dishes for the dog ...........you can use hub caps

[BlackJack]

Non technically, I'd say that sometimes people can lose their perspective when holding assets. Maybe you could justify an ounce of Gold being infinitely more valuable than what you perceive as a worthless fiat currency, but their are other comparative valuations to be made. Here in Thailand you could buy 8 cows for the same price as an ounce of Gold. You get milk, meat, more cows from that investment. I could plant 1,000 teak trees with the same money. Of course that's not an option available to everyone. I'm just pointing out that perhaps Gold may be close to fully valued.

but you can't buy a bakery for 8 cows, can you?

or buy shares in CP SET

[Gambles]

So the recent happenings in Gaza may or may not be a colossal global political, economic or societal event but we won't know that just yet and undoubtedly they're significant in their own right anyway.

in a couple of months hardly anybody will remember or talk about it. on that claim i bet my [not so] sweet àss

OK, I stand corrected - nobody except Naam knows.....

[Gambles]

The story with the Euro is that like many high fliers it just wanted to go up without building support. That breakout in 2002 really should have been retested sooner rather than later. Gold same story of course, but it is the bubble dejour so it could run a bit more before it comes all the way back. Euro currently showing positive divergances in IT time frame while Gold showing negative.

I just dont see gold as a bubble. I am not saying that because I hold some either.

It does not exhibit bubble qualities...You do not hear taxi drivers & everyone in between talking gold.

You do not hear everyday folks saying ...I have to get some gold before TSHTF

In fact remember that deal where a guy tries to sell a gold coin to the public? It is similar....Non interest for the most part.

What we see is gold no longer acting like a commodity but instead acting like a traded currency/monetary instrument.

As for building support & destined to go all the way back.....

I have an interest in charts & cycles but I also tend to think some things like economic catastrophe is not limited by patterns nor destined to follow previous *pictures*

That said I would not be surprised to see the common low June come in

I do not think the Euro failed for that same reason....Instead the Euro was an experiment. It failed...How could it not?

It can never be equally supported & why should the strong carry the weak/lazy/non contributors?

how bubble behaves in a liquidity shortage remains unanswered

Personally I like gold and hold gold and expect it to go up

but I also think it could fall significantly before it does, which is when I would buy more....

[AlexLah]

most of us are busy making money Alex ("in the situation we are in now") and can't afford to waste time writing academic papers.

Please wear some:

Our resident "Experts" say there is a lot of "Noise"

Edited June 5, 2010 by AlexLah

[flying]

I share your view 100%

There is never any guarantee in the future that some time somewhere someone will refuse gold

and say they prefer to trade in food stuff or the way things are going in some places on the globe, even a tanker full of drinking water

Yes, I remember that old saying - gold is for bulls - I am buying canned goods and a shotgun.

Or more specifically..... canned goods, flash light, batteries, wind up radio, fire starter (cause you can't use a lighter to start wet wood), salt for preserving meat, lighter fluid, can opener knife, pistol and bullets (if you have one), water and water purification kit, toiletries, first aid/ med kit (band aids, ace bandages, splints, cotton swabs, rubbing alcohol/ hydrogen peroxide, CPR Rescue mask), spare clothing, hot wiring for dummies, water dish and leash for dogs (if you have one), blankets, cook ware.

(Slightly puzzled by why his dog doesnt already have a water dish?)

Of course & it goes without saying that prepped means more than a monetary trading unit.

But after that............. Folks still need a medium of trade.

In places like Zimbabwe & Argentina small examples can be seen.

Yes I agree some could refuse gold especially if another medium becomes the choice/standard but more likely the only one refusing gold is the one that has too much of it.

But this is all in a total SHTF scenario which I personally dont see or hope not to see.

If it goes that way I am actually well positioned or as well as I can be.

But what we were talking about was a gold bubble & the destruction of Fiat as it stands now.

I just tend to think as more & more slight of hand concerning fiat is uncovered gold & silver for that matter will do well.

There will always be a need for a store of wealth/trading units/purchasing power...No other has done as well for so long as AU & AG

[Naam]

So the recent happenings in Gaza may or may not be a colossal global political, economic or societal event but we won't know that just yet and undoubtedly they're significant in their own right anyway.

in a couple of months hardly anybody will remember or talk about it. on that claim i bet my [not so] sweet àss

OK, I stand corrected - nobody except Naam knows.....

the list of much more severe atrocities is long. who (besides al-Jazeera) talks about e.g. the "War on Gaza"? by the way, it is my understanding that a "claim" does not denote "knowledge". native english speakers please correct me if i am wrong.

[midas]

So the recent happenings in Gaza may or may not be a colossal global political, economic or societal event but we won't know that just yet and undoubtedly they're significant in their own right anyway.

in a couple of months hardly anybody will remember or talk about it. on that claim i bet my [not so] sweet àss

OK, I stand corrected - nobody except Naam knows.....

the list of much more severe atrocities is long. who (besides al-Jazeera) talks about e.g. the "War on Gaza"? by the way, it is my understanding that a "claim" does not denote "knowledge". native english speakers please correct me if i am wrong.

this is why they dont

http://www.albionmonitor.com/0901a/copyrig...agejazeera.html

[BlackJack]

Any ideas on this scenario

Lets say the Gulf of Mexico oil spill cannot be stopped for a few more months

1000's of jobs will be lost and there will be a knock on effect in the USA

think: fishing boats and the seafood industry, tourism in the Florida area, all the way down to taxi drivers and no fares.

USA already having massive deficit in the trillions of dollars

huge problems for Obama Administration

What will the markets do to respond?

Will there be a run on gold

a crash in the dollar?

Stocks to hold and stocks to dump.

Another World crash?

Not doomsday post but just wanting to position myself and others in a defensive way

thanks

[flying]

Any ideas on this scenario

Lets say the Gulf of Mexico oil spill cannot be stopped for a few more months

1000's of jobs will be lost and there will be a knock on effect in the USA

think: fishing boats and the seafood industry, tourism in the Florida area, all the way down to taxi drivers and no fares.

USA already having massive deficit in the trillions of dollars

huge problems for Obama Administration

What will the markets do to respond?

Will there be a run on gold

a crash in the dollar?

Stocks to hold and stocks to dump.

Another World crash?

Not doomsday post but just wanting to position myself and others in a defensive way

thanks

I wonder too & also think the spill could get to biblical problem size once it rounds the Florida panhandle & makes its way up the east coast.

Gulf Stream then where?

Stock wise I admit I think of Natural Gas a lot these days.

I wonder if the slow down enforced on drilling as more & more refuse to allow off shore near their state.

Will this all push NG forward?

Just wondering.

PS: Also think watching BKX the bank index is interesting.....

Then the whole thing in GAZA.....Is Turkey just talking or will they escort & as they say see any attack on any ship as an act of war?

Add to what you said about the fishing industry....Food shortages due to it.

Also the dispersement chems seem to be making folks sick already.

A

What is the long term effect on fish?

Edited June 6, 2010 by flying

[Abrak]

I wonder too & also think the spill could get to biblical problem size once it rounds the Florida panhandle & makes its way up the east coast.

Well 'biblical proportions' is going a bit far. The leak assuming it trebled from here (probably an absolute worse case scenario) would be less than 20% of the Saddam Gulf War leak. Its major significance is not its size but the fact that it has happened off the coast of Amerika.

A rather humbling article as to why Hayward calls the leak 'tiny' (when compared to the amount of water in the sea) and why he believes the environmental impact will be 'modest'.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/may/3...ger-delta-shell

[flying]

The leak assuming it trebled from here (probably an absolute worse case scenario) would be less than 20% of the Saddam Gulf War leak.

I wonder how they can assume an absolute worse case scenario? Considering it is basically an underwater volcano & they seem to be failing at every step of any corrective action.

So how can they claim what the maximum output could be? Better yet the maximum damage.

Now add to the mix these new dispersion chemicals & what the long term unknown effects could be.

Yes I hope for the best but at this point have a hard time with faith based on anything they report.

[midas]

The leak assuming it trebled from here (probably an absolute worse case scenario) would be less than 20% of the Saddam Gulf War leak.

I wonder how they can assume an absolute worse case scenario? Considering it is basically an underwater volcano & they seem to be failing at every step of any corrective action.

So how can they claim what the maximum output could be? Better yet the maximum damage.

Now add to the mix these new dispersion chemicals & what the long term unknown effects could be.

Yes I hope for the best but at this point have a hard time with faith based on anything they report.

flying you are not the first person to use the expression " 'biblical proportions " for this incident

Oil spill is an epic disaster of Biblical Proportions !

" I am telling you all this so that you will understand what we face..and also so that if you live near the Gulf you can make preparations for the possibilities...which could be incredibly bad...panic evacs or just plain mass panic, badass noxious fumes or worse...I guarantee that NO ONE knows for sure.

They really only have one shot here...and that is the top kill, Watch for it and pay attention, be aware what this all means to ALL OF US and I hope I explained things well enough to be understood by anyone. The top kill shot should be coming soon...I hope...as soon as possible....if you hear it failed...or if the well blew itself apart before they can do it...get the <deleted> ready, because Pandora's box is about to open wide and the closest thing to the SHTF for real that we will likely see in our lifetimes is about come charging out at full rampant force...and it's a very large and deep box.... "

Read more: http://gazbom.blogspot.com/2010/05/oil-spi...l#ixzz0q6qHzYBA

Edited June 6, 2010 by midas

[flying]

flying you are not the first person to use the expression " 'biblical proportions " for this incident

From what I have seen that top kill is already a fail for the most part.

What they siphon is a small fraction of what is spewing.

Also....

I have read we do rely on the Ocean's contribution for something like 50-70% of our oxygen don't we?

Two thirds of the worlds population live within 40 miles of the ocean.

One-Sixth of the worlds population gets all their protein from the fish of that ocean.

The rain we see & the water we drink are tied to that ocean too.....

Which is what got me thinking of what kind of proportion this could turn into.

[Abrak]

flying you are not the first person to use the expression " 'biblical proportions " for this incident

From what I have seen that top kill is already a fail for the most part.

What they siphon is a small fraction of what is spewing.

Also....

I have read we do rely on the Ocean's contribution for something like 50-70% of our oxygen don't we?

Two thirds of the worlds population live within 40 miles of the ocean.

One-Sixth of the worlds population gets all their protein from the fish of that ocean.

The rain we see & the water we drink are tied to that ocean too.....

Which is what got me thinking of what kind of proportion this could turn into.

Yes but arent we getting a little carried away here.

The mass of the ocean is 1,400,000,000,000,000,000 tons.

The spillage assuming it trebles from here will be about 700,000 tons.

In other words it will add one ounce of oil into every 2 trillion ounces of seawater (I think that is right but there are a lot of zeros). In the global scheme of things it amounts to a large fart in a room the size of Bangkok. Not much consolation to a seagull off the coast of Florida, I will readily admit.

[flying]

The spillage assuming it trebles from here will be about 700,000 tons.

In other words it will add one ounce of oil into every 2 trillion ounces of seawater (I think that is right but there are a lot of zeros). In the global scheme of things it amounts to a large fart in a room the size of Bangkok. Not much consolation to a seagull off the coast of Florida, I will readily admit.

Like I said before...I hope for the best but cannot assume things & what X quantity of things that do not belong in an environment not matter how big that environment is ....

How much crude in the water does it take to kill off certain species?

How much crude in the water does it take to destroy certain coral reefs in which many depend on for life & sustenance?

How much crude even parts per million will affect the sea life enough to effect the food supply?

How much testing if any has been done long term on the chemicals being dumped like Chem Trails from large aircraft across miles & miles of ocean?

What effect will these chemical have on the ocean LONG term & what lives in it? Again back to the food supply....

Will we now see yet another form of cancer?

I think it is too easy for man to say no problem the ocean is a large place.... Sounds flip in many ways. Because it is not man's house.

[vedantafx]

QUOTE (flying @ 2010-06-05 12:42:08) QUOTE (lannarebirth @ 2010-06-05 10:59:02) The story with the Euro is that like many high fliers it just wanted to go up without building support. That breakout in 2002 really should have been retested sooner rather than later. Gold same story of course, but it is the bubble dejour so it could run a bit more before it comes all the way back. Euro currently showing positive divergances in IT time frame while Gold showing negative.

I just dont see gold as a bubble. I am not saying that because I hold some either.

It does not exhibit bubble qualities...You do not hear taxi drivers & everyone in between talking gold.

You do not hear everyday folks saying ...I have to get some gold before TSHTF

In fact remember that deal where a guy tries to sell a gold coin to the public? It is similar....Non interest for the most part.

What we see is gold no longer acting like a commodity but instead acting like a traded currency/monetary instrument.

As for building support & destined to go all the way back.....

I have an interest in charts & cycles but I also tend to think some things like economic catastrophe is not limited by patterns nor destined to follow previous *pictures*

That said I would not be surprised to see the common low June come in

I do not think the Euro failed for that same reason....Instead the Euro was an experiment. It failed...How could it not?

It can never be equally supported & why should the strong carry the weak/lazy/non contributors?

Gold is on the cusp of a bubble. You may remember when it first made new highs in the 1200's I said if it didn't come back it would be in a bubble IMO. Bubble behaviour has to do with whether or not the chart indicates support for the pricing. It also has to do with something being fully valued or not, but that is a pretty arbitrary judgement. Gold doesn't have much support here to go significantly higher. That doesn't mean that it won't, but it means if it does it will difficult to sustain.

Non technically, I'd say that sometimes people can lose their perspective when holding assets. Maybe you could justify an ounce of Gold being infinitely more valuable than what you perceive as a worthless fiat currency, but their are other comparative valuations to be made. Here in Thailand you could buy 8 cows for the same price as an ounce of Gold. You get milk, meat, more cows from that investment. I could plant 1,000 teak trees with the same money. Of course that's not an option available to everyone. I'm just pointing out that perhaps Gold may be close to fully valued.

Gold is certainly not in a bubble. In a room of investment managers, money managers etc a few surveys have shown that only a few percent have gold in their portfolio. We have just moved past the stealth phase in gold. Its now coming into the main stream consciousness, and more more hedgefunds and large portfolio managers are starting to buy gold. When large portfolio managers start acquiring gold, thats what will really drive the price. Thats quite a few years away yet. In real terms, rather than nominally gold will continue to increase in value, even if goes down price wise. If gold gets down to 700USD again, then rest assured the stock market will be at new lows, real estate will be down, sterling, euro will be near parity against the USD. The Jpy will be also much stronger. Investment demand for gold is increasing and this will drive the price for sure. The important thing to look at is the real price of gold,ie, how much of something it buys you. The Dow/Gold ratio is an old favourite, and before according to this ratio, gold will increase 800 percent against stocks. Whether that means stocks higher gold higher, inflationary, or gold lower, stocks much lower remains to be seen. In the recent stock market falls, the goldminers are holding up well, which is also telling. For the time being the fact that gold has been going up is firing a warning shot, not of inflation, but deflation. Gold/silver ratio acts very much like a credit spread, basically the Gold divided by silver gives the ratio. I have made a chart of this relationship below, and overlayed under the ratio the S+P Futures since in the last 10 years. It shows a very interesting relationship. One can see that the topping out in 2007/08 of the S+P started to diverge with the gold silver ratio, As the SP was making new highs, the gold/silver ratio was not making new lows, it was rising as the market made new highs. This was a warning shot. It also correlated nicely with spreads between T-Bonds and Junk bonds, as they widened so did the bond spreads, also as the Libor-OIS rate was rising, so was this ratio, and also the TED Spread.

I made a few predictions a while back, that something would come out of nowhere back IN September/October, and shock the markets related to credit spreads. Basically if you look at the rally in the S+P since March, and look at the new highs the S+P was making, this was not accompanied by new lows in the gold/silver ratio, which it if it had been would have been a sign that things were actually recovering. Instead the ratio was rising and making higher lows everytime the markets made a new high, which was telling us something was not quite write in the credit markets. Then the Dubai issue sent a few tremors, then we had Greece, and now it looks like the markets are moving onto Spain, with their bond spreads rising to a record against German Bunds. The USD bottomed out last November, and I have been heavily long USD and JPY since then, been short AUDUSD as the RBA went far too far out of the blocks with the interest rates rises. I believe infact they will cut rates when real estate heads down which is imminent, the correlation between the AUD and Copper is high, infact they are the same trade. So the AUD has three negatives in all, a real estate bubble, a slowdown in China which is 13% of all Australias exports, and it is generally a risk currency, so when the gold silver ratio is going up, and credit stress is there, then you don't want to be in AUD< CAD etc . Be long JPY, USD, Gold. I find this to be one of the best barometers of risk, and credit stress before it happens. When it gets very high, then thats the best time to flip out of gold, or some at least and go heavily long silver. By December, this ratio will be up near 75 again, as the turmoil in the currency markets continues. This is what gold is telling us. Its not going up due to inflation fears now. It was very interesting on Friday, I had spent all last week building shorts in GBPUSD, GBPJPY, and in the S+P at the 200 day MA, when the non-farm pay rolls came out of America and disappointed, everything collapsed, and usually gold would move down on this news, however in the seconds after that report, and into the afternoon gold actually shot up. For me this is gold playing its role as the ultimate safe haven. Its going to be an interesting summer, perhaps a relative calm one, moving into August, September, then there will be another leg down, before the FED and CB's start the money machine again. Everyone should own some gold as an insurance policy. The USD and JPY are safe for now, but the markets will also force their hands with these currencys also, and that will be when gold will be the best place to hide. But thats not for a while yet.

Edited June 6, 2010 by vedantafx